The world sure has changed since the last time we presented a schedule, hasn’t it? The weather has thus far been unconcerned with our virus, so let’s continue to remain interest in the atmosphere.
The world seems to be hunkered down thanks to the insidious Coronavirus. One of the first hot spots was the Seattle area, but in Washington State, at least, the spread has been predominantly confined to the Seattle area. Bremerton, which is just across Puget Sound from Seattle, and Kilsap County have only reported 20 positive tests, opposed to the hundreds across the Sound. With all this going on, meteorologists still need to be aware of the weather, and share that information with you. So lets get to it then, shall we?
At 1019AM, PT, Bremerton was reporting a temperature of 45 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. An already landed area of low pressure is moving southeast from British Columbia, bringing the overcast from Georgia Strait into Puget Sound, while also introducing some snow to the Cascades and Olympic Mountains. The surface low will deteriorate as it presses further into Washington, and the sharp angled upper trough will deepen to the southwest, ensuring cooler conditions and more overcast, at least through the day tomorrow. The jet over the center of the country will strengthen and lead t development well to the east of Washington State, but the trough aloft will encourage the sinking air aloft, and the Puget Sound will remain socked in with low clouds, fog and some light drizzle through Wednesday. Tomorrow – Some light rain, otherwise overcast, High 50, Low 36 Wednesday – Overcast with some fog and a bit of light rain, High 50, Low 33
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain showers.High 48, Low 36 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then periods of showers later in the day. High 50, Low 33
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and cool with a couple of showers High 50, Low 37 Wednesday – More clouds than sun with a shower in places in the afternoon High 51, Low 34
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. High 48, Low 39 Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, High 51, Low 37
WB: Tomorrow – Rain showers likely in the morning, then rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Rainfall amounts a tenth to a quarter of an inch possible, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms, High 47, Low 36 Wednesday – Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of rain showers in the morning then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 48, Low 34
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers, High 48, Low 39 Wednesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 51, Low 37
FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain throughout the day. High 48, Low 35 Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 48, Low 33
A look at the radar shows some showers scooting north of the Olympic Peninsula, but louder returns in the Cascades. Another lovely day for the Puget Sound.
Before the entire planet went bananas, I had reached out to Kelly Greene, a meteorologist at WTHR in Indianapolis about putting together a feature forecast for Columbus, Indiana. She agreed to do so, but was about to take a vacation. and then came back, and despite everything, remembered our conversation. Truly impressive during these incredible times. It’s quite flattering! That’s enough out of me, the rest is all from Kelly.
A strong storm system moved over south central Indiana late day Thursday and Friday. Heavy rain in excess of 2″ to 3″ fell, with Columbus receiving close to 2″ of rain. Rivers will rise this weekend, including the Flatrock River and the East Fork White River in Columbus. Only minor flooding is expected. A cold front will bring in much colder air for the weekend, making it feel more like winter instead of the first weekend of spring! Temperatures will fall behind the front, eventually bottoming out into the upper 20s Saturday morning. Skies will be partly sunny by Saturday afternoon and the winds will relax. Afternoon highs will only climb into the low 40s Saturday afternoon, running more than 10 degrees below average. Sunday will be a bit warmer with increasing clouds. Temperatures will start off near 30° in the morning and will rebound into the mid 40s by afternoon. The next system arrives by mid afternoon, bringing more scattered showers Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Spring-like temperatures return for the rest of the week.
Kelly Greene is a meteorologist at WTHR in Indianapolis and lives in Fishers, Indiana with her husband. Kelly actually lived in Columbus many years ago, and experienced many floods during that time. Kelly enjoys golf and travel and looks forward to being able to play 18 holes again soon.
Kelly can be found on social media at the following addresses
Well, this has certainly been an interesting week. The weather continues apace, regardless of the virus that is gripping society. Let’s check out southeastern PA.
At 856PM, ET, Lebanon was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with overcast skies. There was overcast across the region with light return showing up on radar across central Pennsylvania, though there weren’t any precipitation reports from reporting stations east of Pittsburgh. The band of precipitation is the tail front attached to low pressure moving through Hudson Bay. A shallow jet trough covers northeastern Canada, and is sort of the second step of a two step jet stream. Ultimately, there is a ridge over the eastern part of the country, which is helping to mitigate the threat of precipitation, but will also allow some clearing tomorrow afternoon. The lower step of the jet is going to continue to translate eastward and with it, the next round of wet weather. A warm front, laden with fairly heavy rain and potentially an isolated thunderstorm will arrive late in the evening on Wednesday. Tomorrow – A little bit of early rain, High 55, Low 43 Wednesday – Mostly sunny with increasing clouds and a late shower or thunderstorm, High 55, Low 35
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 57, Low 38 Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon (late rain). High 57, Low 32
AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower or two in the morning; otherwise, clouds giving way to some sun High 57, Low 31 Wednesday – Increasing clouds (late rain) High 57, Low 31
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of light rain, mainly before 10am. Cloudy High 57, Low 3- Wednesday – Sunny (late rain), High 56, Low 33
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, a chance of light rain in the morning, High 57, Low 40 Wednesday – Sunny (Late rain), High 56, Low 35
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 57, Low 40 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 33
FIO: Tomorrow – Possible drizzle in the morning. High 57, Low 38 Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 58, Low 31
It looks like we are visiting Lebanon right between two bouts of rain. What timing! Maybe things are looking up.
For most of us, a hundredth of an inch of rain is pretty inconsequential. In a place like Tucson, though, it is out of the ordinary, and forecasters should definitely attempt to account for any threat of it. Mea culpa. Last week, on the 8th, a hundredth of an inch did indeed fall on the city, which almost everyone handled correctly. It was a pretty snug forecast otherwise, a trend we have definitely been experiencing this year, and The Weather Channel ended up edging the competition. Actuals: Sunday, March 8th, .01 inches of rain, High 66, Low 51 Monday – High 75, Low 44
Frankly, you couldn’t ave asked for a worse set of circumstances for these storms. While we can’t underestimate the the amount of suffering that the storms caused, we also can also state that it could have been significantly worse, and the margin was very close. Let’s look at the circumstances in question.
Time of Day: The first tornado from this outbreak dropped shortly after 11pm, with the Cookeville tornado occurring just before 2AM. Given that this outbreak occurred after most people were in bed, the effectiveness of warnings was reduced even further than normal, and few people in the path of the storm likely prepared as would have been prudent
Location: These tornadoes went through heavily populated locations. The longest track any of these twisters took was an incredible 60 miles, and it started west of Nashville before crossing an airport and eventually through the city center, The storm passed between the Grand Ole Opry and Downtown, south of the Hermitage and across commercial and residential districts. A venue that hosted a political rally that very night was leveled. To summarize, there were definitely people in the path of this storm.
Strength: That storm that went through the city center of Nashville did so as an EF2 to EF3 storm, and remained an EF3 as it did considerable harm to life and property in Mount Juliet. The Cookeville tornado, which skirted the city limits was stronger, grading as an EF4, and was the deadliest as a result.
Take a look at the storm tracks of the Nashville and Cookeville tornadoes below to reference what I discussed above.
Nashville Tornado TrackCookeville Tornado Track
That is a recipe for disaster, and one that likely left most residents feeling helpless. The storms themselves were moving at 80mph as well, which would have limited warning times even if they had come during daylight. The storms had a mission, and Tennessee is proving how strong the state is, thanks to the ability to withstand such as storm, and their immediate attempts at recovery.
February wasn’t nearly the snowlogged marathon that it was in 2019, even though we had an extra day in the month. Also, February wasn’t quite as tightly clustered among the forecasters as January was. This milder, tamer month led to only one winner for the month, and one that didn’t do as well in January. Congratualtions to the Weather Channel, our top performer in our second month.
Early last week, an area of low pressure developed in the 4 Corners and shifted into Texas, chasing the system that eventually led to the devastating tornadoes in Tennessee. The chasing system was a rainmaker, though, bringing more than an inch of rain to Killeen on Wednesday, which was probably unwelcome, but at least it was well predicted by a series of good forecasts. The best belonged to none other than Victoria-Weather, who are undefeated now in March. Actuals: Tuesday – Trace of precipitation High 72, Low 62 Wednesday – 1.23 inches of rain, High 64, Low 49
After a trip to Greensboro, let’s take a lengthy trip from Greensboro. It’s going to take us 3 1/2 days to location to location, and it will require a pace of 71.2mph to cover our 2065 miles, which is downright blistering. We’ll cover 569.7 miles on those first three days, leaving a little bit left over for the fourth day. Westward ho.
DAY ONE (Sunday)
Greensboro, North Carolina
I am quite taken with the rapid pace we will take as we get started off towards Tucson. We’ll alight through 4 different states as we begin, both Carolinas, Georgia and Alabama, where we will finish things off. High pressure is stout in the southeast, and we won’t have any weather concerns between Greensboro and Boligee, Alabama, where we are going to stop for the night.
DAY TWO (Monday) Low pressure is emerging from the southern Rockies this weekend, and will be a rainy little system moving through the Plains. The tail of the cold front will dangle into the Lower Mississippi Valley as we also scoot through that same part of the country. Shower activity will be possible from about Ruston, Louisiana west into the Piney Woods of Texas. It should be cloudy but dry west of about the Tyler area, which will take us into the Metroplex by evening. The day will end in Fort Worth.
DAY THREE (Tuesday) Leaving Fort Worth on Tuesday, we will enter the vast expanse of west Texas. It will be at it’s warm, dry and dusty best. There will be no well organized system across the region, but west Texas will indeed be squeezed between features, which will render the region cloudier than normal, but not quite rainy. We’ll make it as far as Tornillo, which isn’t quite to El Paso. Texas is very big.
DAY FOUR (Wednesday) The next round of wet weather for the desert Southwest, and there certainly aren’t many, usually, will be running into the area on Wednesday morning. There won’t be much rain east of Las Cruces, but there will be a few showers with some elevation wet snow for the entirety of our drive on Wednesday. When you go to Tucson, you probably don’t expect rain, but alas, that’s what we are going to find on this occasion.
Let’s see what’s going on down in Arizona tonight. Anything? Anything at all?
At 853PM, PT, Tucson was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies. The western US is much more active than usual, with a broad, strong trough angled into the west coast. The exit arm of the trough extends just to the southeast of Tucson, and some mid to high clouds shouldn’t be ruled out tomorrow. Low pressure will consolidate on the Colorado/New Mexico border through the day tomorrow, with precipitation becoming more widespread in southern New Mexico and the terrain east of Tucson. This feature will shift into the Plains, but the southwest will broadly be within a trough. Low pressure will develop over the Pacific west of the Baja, and the skies over Tucson will be a little bit more congested than usual to start the week. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 69, Low 52 Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 50
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies with a few showers after midnight. High 67, Low 55 Monday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 75, Low 48
AW: Tomorrow – A shower or thunderstorm in the area in the morning; otherwise, rather cloudy and cooler High 68, Low 55 Monday – Partly sunny and warmer High 76, Low 47
NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers, mainly before 11am. Partly sunny, High 71, Low 54 Monday – Sunny, High 77, Low 45
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the morning then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon, High 66, Low 59 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 49
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 71, Low 54 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 45
FIO: Tomorrow – Possible drizzle in the morning. High 71, Low 46 Monday – Overcast throughout the day. High 74, Low 60
I sure could end up with egg on my face if (and probably when, knowing my luck) it rains in Tucson on Sunday. Check out the satellite, with heavier clouds just to the southeast of town.