Brownsville, Texas

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We are headed to the Rio Grande for our forecast tonight. It’s been a while since we have issued a forecast for Texas, and today, we are going as far south into Texas as we can get.

At 953PM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with cloudy skies. The air was soupy, with dew points in the mid-70s. It is getting deep enough into the spring that the course of the jet has lifted to the north. Flow is through the the Gulf and into low pressure in the Canadian Prairie, giving rise to the local humidity.
A deeper trough is going to develop over the Desert Southwest before rotating north into the Central Plains. A cold front will drape through the Plains, and present a severe threat for the Ozarks, in particular, however for interests around Brownsville, it will mean continued warmth and humidity, with clouds early, and some coastal fog.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 91, Low 75
Sunday – Mostly Cloudy, High 94, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. Areas of patchy fog. High 89, Low 76
Sunday – Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Areas of patchy fog. High 90, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and humid High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Humid with clouds and sun; breezy in the afternoon High 91, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 90, Low 77
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny High 91, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny High 89, Low 75
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 90. Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 88, Low 76
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 76

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 89, Low 75
Sunday – Partly cloudy High 90, Low 76

Oof. Does anyone have a lemonade? Cloudy skies in the South Texas morning.

Springfield, Missouri to Billings, Montana

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Our journey this week takes us on a route that will certainly be easy on the traffic. We’ll head northwest over the course of two days, covering 1192 miles That second day will be our longer of the two, with a pace of 67.5mph. Our second day will be longer – and it will feel like it – with day one concluding after 540 miles.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)

Springfield, Missouri

Day one will be the day with actual human population along our route. We’ll pass through Kansas City, Omaha and Sioux Falls without much of an interruption. Temperatures will be nice and toasty along the way, and I will give you permission to leave windows cracked as we proceed. The day will end as we reach Montrose, South Dakota, not far to the west of Sioux Falls.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
A pretty deep area of low pressure is going to develop midweek in the northern Rockies. It’s going to churn even more warm air and a bit of humidity. This is likely to play out with some thunderstorms developing late in the day. I would say there will be some storms in the Black Hills of South Dakota as we navigate through, with more isolated storms in southeastern Montana. Don’t be surprised if there is rain in Billings tomorrow evening, but don’t necessarily expect it, either. So what is there to do in Billings, anyway?

A muted heat wave

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It was forecast to be quite warm last week in Fayetteville. Make no mistake, it was quite warm, but there were several degrees between what occurred and what still stands as records for the 14th and 15th of April. Accuweather in particular was feeling strongly that there was a chance for record temperatures, but the numbers skewed towards the lower forecast values. The top forecast belonged right here, at Victoria-Weather.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 86, Low 59
Wednesday – High 90, Low 61

Grade B

Owensboro, Kentucky to Springfield, Missouri

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We’re heading for a long drive on Friday. It will take 6 1/2 hours to cover 421 miles, which settles in at about 64.7mph, slowed mostly by St. Louis. Let’s cross two of America’s grandest rivers (and get pretty darn close to a third) in one day.

Owensboro, Kentucky

Our first bridge to cross will be over the Ohio and into Indiana, before we turn westward. The Mississippi Valley will be quiet for once, with warm, increasingly humid air for our route. So hot and humid, in fact, that there is a chance of some isolated pop up shower and storm activity early in the day. Low pressure in the Plains is going to drive that summerlike air north, and as we get west of St. Louis and the Mississippi, we will start to see more ominous clouds to the northwest, with the shower threat diminishing directly over our route. A very strong and active cold front will be congealing in northwest Missouri, and will arrive in Springfield that evening. After us, though, so we can sit and anticipate it’s arrival.

Springfield, Missouri

March Forecaster of the Month

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March was not a busy month here at Victoria-Weather, at least on the forecast side. We had plenty of updates and weather discussions, but the forecasting was light. Therefore, it is tough to split the difference between our two top options for Forecaster of the Month: The Weather Channel and Clime.

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 3
Accuweather 1
WeatherNation 1
National Weather Service 1.5
Clime 0.5
Victoria-Weather  
Weatherbug  

A cool spring start in Baltimore

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Baltimore had about a perfect set of spring days. Sure, you could ask for temperatures to be a bit warmer, but in early April, 50s are perfectly reasonable. This was exactly what happened last Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures never dipped below freezing, but nights were still cool, and it didn’t get too hot. 50s, perhaps, are too chilly for residents of Maryland, but they sure have an fan club, and besides, warmer temperatures are going to be in place for the next several months. Speaking of drawing a fan club, three outlets drew level for this forecast: Accuweather, The Weather Service and WeatherNation had a collective win, but the consensus forecast was actually a smidge better than even them..
Actuals: Wednesday, High 51, Low 33
Thursday – High 59, Low 33

Grade: B

Coming Soon…

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Storms are expected to erupt across the middle of the country over the next couple of days, with an otherwise warmer trend. It is spring, after all. At last. On to the future forecasts.

Road Trip from Owensboro, Kentucky to Springfield, Missouri.

Road Trip from Springfield to Billings, Montana

Brownsville, Texas

Logan, Utah
Road Trip from Brownsville to Logan

Fayetteville, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed down to the Carolinas today. As things get warmer, weather is starting to get more convective. Will that be the case in North Carolina?

At 1010AM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting scattered clouds and a westerly breeze gusting to about 20mph. Elsewhere in the area, dew points of over 60 were leading to some haze, which the wind was doing a good job of scouring. There is a boundary to the west of the Appalachians that is in the process of fading, but has done an effective job of drawing warm moist air into the Carolina coastal plains.
That boundary is fading as low pressure deepens in the northern Plains. This will reinforce both the jet ridge over the east coast, and the warm, oceanic air in Fayetteville. Clouds will increase with the temperature, but a dry couple of days are anticipated.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 59
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. high 89, Low 60
Wednesday – Generally sunny. Near record high temperature High 92, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and very warm with the temperature tying the record high from 1922 High 92, Low 59
Wednesday – Partly sunny and hot with the temperature approaching the record high of 95 set in 2006; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 94, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 89, Low 61
Wednesday – Sunny, High 92, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 86, Low 65
Wednesday – Sunny hot High 89, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 89, Low 61
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 64

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 58
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 61

Easy peasy. Satellite shows some scattered clouds across the southeast.

Updates 4/12

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12:33AM: We’re looking at a busy week of storms. High pressure hangs over the mid-Atlantic, with warm air pumping into the Plains. Storms are a consistent threat in the middle of the country for the next few days.

4:55PM With the gusty winds found posrt frontally, and it being as dry as it is regionwide, expect an elevated fire risk for the Plains all week. Red flag warnings are out for many spots

10:53PM Storms are dying out in Texas this evening, but good luck getting sleep. Look at all this lightning

An A for the group

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Just before Easter, we went to the Central Valley of California. Visalia was warm, but clear overnight skies meant the weather was sleepable. Records were not ultimately set, which was how the official forecasts played out. There was a tie at the top between Accuweather and Clime, and a good score for everyone.
Actuals: Sunday, High 88, Low 49
Monday, High 87, Low 52

Grade: A