Yes, you are hearing more about big storms

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The number of tornadoes reported in the United States has risen dramatically in the last couple of decades, and there is a pretty good reason for that. Radars are better, there are storm chasers everywhere for nearly every storm, and as a result, we are detecting them with much greater frequency. They’ve always been out there, but now we are able to identify them.

This is the same as many ailments. We may not have been able to identify them in the past, but now that we can, the reported cases have gone up. We used to have a lot of cases of consumption, and then tuberculosis was identified, and what we knew as consumption actually was related to many other symptoms, so consumption, now known as TB saw case numbers rose.

The analogy is a little bit different to what is going on this year, but more or less the same. There is a lot of forecast lead time for storms this year. Either because the storms this year are a little bit stronger, or models are better, or there is a change in philosophy, but there has been a greater willingness by the Storm Prediction Center to put greater risk in outlooks further out in days four and beyond. It used to be that any outlook beyond two days with a slight risk was remarkable, and now we regularly see it in the extended outlook.

This has been a gradual trend that is quite apparent this year. I’d like to have some clarification if there was a change in philosophy or just the natural evolution of confidence in forecast guidance, but obviously, there are other things that government meteorologists have on their minds right now. Whatever the cause, this year I have seen more 15 and 30% risks for severe weather in the SPC’s extended outlook this year than ever before. And they don’t always end up being moderate or high risk days by the time the forecast gets a close to the valid date.

The end result of the SPC’s willingness to issue outlook areas further into the future is that news agencies and ultimately your friends and neighbors pick up on those forecasts, and are able to talk about them for longer. So you ARE hearing about storms more, because you get to hear about them for longer. I think this transition time with greater warning lead times for thunderstorms days is a transitional moment, and communication, as always, needs to be the most important thing.

If people are talking about forecasts for a longer period ahead of the forecast valid time, then the expectation is that that storm will be significant grows. It’s important that the extended outlooks are communicated with reasonable expectations, otherwise trust in the meteorology community (always low, of course) will wane, and the intended benefits of better forecast are ultimately counterproductive. Because we have an apparently elevated ability to forecast thunderstorms in the future, we should also be able to forecast without dire terminology in every forecasting scenario.

There was a moderate risk for severe weather in an event that had been advertised for almost a week in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa on Monday. Ultimately, it verified with a strong line of thunderstorms, hail and a few embedded thunderstorms, however the line split and completely missed the largest population center within the moderate risk area. The Twin Cities didn’t really even get a drop of rain.

Ultimately, models will get better and more refined, and forecasts can get drilled down even further. In the interim, because of the nature of storms and the irregular distribution of population, a very good forecast registered as a poor one for many people. Is the extended outlook providing the benefit it intends to? The relationship between meteorologists, the media and the population needs to thrive on open communication so the improvements can be appreciated by all.

Tucson, Arizona to Albany, Georgia

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We’re headed through the southern part of the country today. Well, for the next three days. It’s nearly a straight eastward shot covering 1758 miles. The pace will be 67.6mph, which means a pace of about 541 miles a day for the first two days, with a longer drive coming on the third day. We’re leaving from the desert, so that 10 hour drive will also happen to coincide with the most interesting weather as well.

DAY ONE (Sunday)

Tucson, Arizona

It’s time to hit the road on day one of our southern road trip, and as one might expect, the drive through the Desert Southwest is going to be pretty dry. Arizona and New Mexico, all the way to El Paso are going to be pretty dormant, however as the evening approaches, the dry line in west Texas is going to start looking a little more active. Maybe storms won’t fire as far south as I-20, but I wouldn’t rule it out. The real question is, will they fire far enough west for us to reach them on Friday night? Also not likely, but I wouldn’t rule it out. Let’s stop in Barstow, just past Pecos, for the night.

DAY TWO (Monday)
Saturday will be spent entirely within the state of Texas. All eyes will be on an area of low pressure in the northern Plains that will be making for very spicy weather way up there. In Texas, the return flow will be churning through Texas as things continue to bubble up in the Dakotas. For our purposes, that means scattered clouds throughout the day, and an increasingly unpleasant humidity as we make stops for gas. The threat for rain will be fairly low, however. We will make it to Kilgore, Texas, which is just to the southwest of Longview, for the night.

DAY THREE (Tuesday)
It’s going to be a long day of driving just north of the Gulf shore. The system will be continuing in the northern US and will have a more typical cold front draped through the Tennessee Valley. This indicates a decent return flow across the Gulf, meaning heat and humidity will return, but beneath high pressure. This may allow some more low clouds and fog along the parts of the route that are a little closer to the water. Albany will be hot and muggy, just like you expect it to be in South Georgia.

Albany, Georgia

Albany, Georgia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Guess who’s back! After a long Easter hiatus, I’m back to bring some weather updates, and we will start with a look in the deep south.

At 753AM, ET, Albany was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 68 degrees. Lingering shower activity over the last couple of days has led to clouds and fog, particularly north and east of Albany. It wasn’t likely to advect out of the region, instead holding on for the heating of the day to scour moisture out. This will also destabilize the region, and more showers and storms are possible throughout north Georgia again tomorrow.
The moisture in the area is a result both of the beginning of the summer season, but also a remnant trough, orphaned by a weak area of low pressure that transitioned out of the Canadian Maritimes in the last couple of days. A weak ripple in the Upper Midwest will provide enough of a draw over the next day or so to pull instability out of the south. It will get warmer and more humid in Albany, but the threat of rain will lessen tomorrow. Because the wave is shortwaved, it will be inclined to move, and will do so into a more cyclogenic region. A weak cold front will arrive in south Georgia by Saturday evening, brining about the threat for a few isolated thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated drizzle overnight, High 88, Low 67
Saturday Isolated showers early and late, otherwise hot and humid, High 90, low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 88, Low 65
Saturday – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals High 90, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Becoming cloudy High 88, Low 64
Saturday – Mostly sunny and warm High 89, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 89, Low 64
Saturday – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, High 90, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 85, Low 65
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 64
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 89, Low 65

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 63
Saturday – Sunny, High 88, Low 63

I suspect models are picking up on the moisture which will lead to fog across south Georgia for the next two overnights, however I’ve also seen the radar there, with smatterings of light rain everywhere. I’m too skittish to take it out. Look how cloudy it was this morning!

Updates 4/22

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7:59PM If you are in the La Crosse Wisconsin area, be sure to sign up for spotter training for next week. It’s severe weather season, and if it interests you, this is a great way to help out the community. Of course, every office has spotters, so look at your local office for details if La Crosse isn’t it.

8:48PM This is the kind of night one likes to see if you like tracking radar but don’t want destruction. Dry line thunderstorms are ongoing, severe at times from west Texas to western Kansas. Maybe some hail or gusty winds, but otherwise it’s Tuesday.

Updates 4/21

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9:22PM While river flooding remains an issue along the Mississippi, it’s really gone down along the Ohio. Now, the cause is recent rains in Missouri, where some smaller creeks and tributaries are running high. With a few quiet days, the threat for any flooding should continue to wane.

Updates 4/20

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953PM Another that is fairly summer like with the system sweeping the center of the country tonight: This is the last gasp. It won’t carry much energy tomorrow, because the parent system isn’t particularly well organized. This will leave plenty of atmospheric juice for things to percolate again later in the week in the southern Plains.