Not bad for NC
Posted by Ryan
Things stayed dry in Hickory as the month of August came to a close. Temperatures were in the mid 80s each of the past two days, and rain stayed well away from the area, not even sneaking into the high country west of town. The last forecast of August brings a tie on the first day of September: Weatherbug and Victoria-Weather brought home the top spot.
Actuals: Tuesday - High 84, Low 68
Wednesday - High 86, Low 64
Grade: B
Hickory, North Carolina
Posted by Ryan
Hickory. Fresh in your memories? We just dropped in on the 19th of August. Hickory mostly avoided the wrath of Irene. What will they see in the next two days?
At 153AM, ET, Hickory was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 69 degrees. An upper level trough was aiding in the disturbing of some leftover moisture across the eastern part of the state, bringing more rain to part of the world that doesn't need it.
High pressure is actually well entrenched across the region, which should prevent any moisture from finding it's way into Hickory. A lazy westerly flow will bring a few showers and storms into the western part of the Appalachians, while a lingering trough off the coast will maintain the threat for showers and storms across the Outer Banks. Between, Hickory is going to see partly cloudy skies, and a return to some warmth and humidity.64
Tomorrow - Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 64
Wednesday - Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 65
TWC: Tomorrow - Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 86, Low 64
Wednesday - Sunshine and clouds mixed High 88, Low 66
AW: Tomorrow - Sunny to partly cloudy High 84, Low 61
Wednesday - Partly sunny and nice High 85, Low 64
NWS: Tomorrow - Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny High 83, Low 64
Wednesday - A slight chance of showers before 9am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 2pm. Partly sunny High 86, Low 66
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning High 84, Low 64
Wednesday - Partly sunny. High 86, Low 66
The Weather Service is the only one going for storms on Wednesday. That is definitely interesting. Satellite is out across NC, and there isn't any rainfall in Hickory's area, so YOU GET NO IMAGES!
Battle for North Carolina
Posted by Anthony
VW and TWC had cooler highers and warmer lows than the rest of the competition for Hickory, so it was a battle to see who was on the right side of the forecast. Turns out, VW/TWC was! Highs didn't crack 90 either day and lows were right around 70, leading to a neck-and-neck battle between us and the Weather Channel. TWC narrowly edged us out though, taking home top spot. The other 3 were left in our dust.
Saturday: 0.15" of precip in a thunderstorm. High 88, Low 71.
Sunday: 0.44" of precip in a thunderstorm. High 86, Low 69.
Forecast Grade: A
Hickory, North Carolina
Posted by Ryan
A late night forecast today, but hopefully that doesn't ruin any weekend plans in Hickory.
At 1053, Hickory was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with clear skies. A trough has developed across the southeast through the central Carolinas that has provided a buffer between steamier oceanic air and some slightly cooler, slightly drier air coming off the Smokey Mountains.
The surface trough is going to stay in place over the central Carolinas, and may actually amplify somewhat by Sunday as a deep trough moves through the eastern US with an undercutting jet streak angling towards Hickory. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, particularly in the afternoons the next two days, but there won't be a lot of change to the local air mass.
Tomorrow - Chances for afternoon showers and storms, High 90, Low 69
Sunday - Afternoon thunderstorms continue, High 89, Low 69
TWC: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms High 88, Low 69
Sunday - Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe High 88, Low 70
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny with a shower or thunderstorm around High 93, Low 67
Sunday - Intervals of clouds and sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; warm High 91, Low 68
NWS: Tomorrow - A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 92, Low 67
Sunday - A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny High 90, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning.High 93, 66
Sunday - Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 91, Low 69
Not ad now, but check back again tomorrow afternoon.
Dodging a bullet
Posted by Ryan
If you have spent any time watching the Weather Channel lately, you saw how much snow they got in northern Alabama and Georgia. Classes are still canceled in Atlanta, for example, and most sites in the region had record snows with the system that swept through. The storm is now in New England, walloping Boston. Forecasters were calling for up to a half a foot of snow in Hickory. We weren't going that high with our forecast, and while Hickory doesn't report snow depth, local reports put the totals at about 2-3" for the 2 day period in that part of North Carolina. It was a narrow line, though, with the 5-6" coming just off to the southeast of Hickory. Their position north of the center of low pressure also kept Hickory from dealing with an extended period of freezing rain. Thanks to a solid temperature forecast, the Weather Service had the best forecast, even if they didn't quite hammer down the precipitation forecast.
Actuals: Monday - .26 inches of total liquid in snow and brief freezing rain, High 28, Low 24
Tuesday - ..01 inches of snow, High 30, Low 26
Grade: A
Hickory, North Carolina
Posted by Ryan
Things are going to get pretty hairy for the southeast over the next few days. Will that nastiness find it's way far enough north to be a nuisance for the fine folks of Hickory?
At 453PM, ET, Hickory was reporting a temperature of 33 degrees with clear skies. Dew points were below zero, and before clouds and precipitation can roll in, expect temperatures to begin to plummet with the sun going down. There are already some returns showing up on the Greenville radar over Georgia, and the nearest reports so far are of sleet over central Alabama. Dry air ahead of the system is doing a good job of inhibiting precipitation from falling too far east.
Snow will move into Hickory mid-morning tomorrow. With cold air in place, expect temperatures to be cool enough that Hickory may see drier snow than they typically do, which will eventually lead to some higher accumulation totals as well than they would normally see with as much liquid as they get. The snow will come through the early afternoon, until the center of low pressure moves off shore, and upper level support effectively ends by tomorrow evening. Westerly, dry flow will then be in place for Tuesday afternoon, leaving Hickory to shovel the 1-3" of snow they will get on Monday and Tuesday morning.
Tomorrow - Snow probable, tapering off late. High 28, Low 17
Tuesday - Some flurries in the morning, then clearing, High 38, Low 24
TWC: Tomorrow - Snow likely (1-3"). Cold. High 29, Low 25
Tuesday - Cloudy (snow, another 1-3" turning to a wintry mix overnight). High 34, Low 27
AW: Tomorrow - Snow, accumulating an additional 1-3 inches High 32, Low 22
Tuesday - Areas of freezing drizzle in the morning; mostly cloudy (1-3" more overnight) High 36, low 24
NWS: Tomorrow - Snow (2-4") High 30, Low 24
Tuesday - Freezing drizzle likely before 2pm, then a chance of rain or freezing rain (1-2"). High 33, Low 26
WBL Tomorrow - Snow High 30, Low 25 (2-4")
Tuesday - Cloudy. Light freezing rain and very light freezing drizzle likely in the morning...then a chance of light rain...light freezing rain and very light freezing drizzle in the afternoon (total snow 4-6") High 33, Low 27
I am definitely not bullish on the idea of 6" of snow in Hickory. It appears the bulk of the moisture will be to their south. Models, which these forecasters are following to a tee, have not handled the temperature, dew point or ceilings terribly well, and the GFS has handled the precip field better than any other model, and it keeps Hickory almost entirely dry. Still, I will honor the 1-3" forecast tomorrow, but I will not go any higher than that. Radar shows verga already showing up on the local radar.
It’s looking like summer
Posted by Ryan
The southeast is generally very active with showers and thunderstorms through the summer. Its never a severe outbreak or anything, just a few cells that develop because of the heat and moisture of the area. This was apparently the case over the past couple of days, though there was a weak upper trough helping to perhaps expand the coverage. It was hit or miss in western North Carolina and Hickory, where the showers missed on Saturday and hit for a quarter inch of new rain on Sunday. Congrats to the Weather Service and Weatherbug for forecasting the fog on Saturday. Too bad they were 4th and 5th in the standings, however, with VicWx and TWC tying for the top spot.
Actuals: Saturday - High 84, Low 62
Sunday - .25" of rain, High 81, Low 62
Grade: B
Providence, Rhode Island to Hickory, North Carolina
Posted by Ryan
Late night planning for our day and a half road trip from New England to North Carolina. It cover 821 miles at the snails pace of 59.5mph, which will get us 476 miles on the first day, leaving the rest for a shorter second day. Let's pick up stakes and drive through some megaplexes, OK?
DAY ONE
An occluded front will sweep out of New England by the time we leave, allowing an unexpectedly dry day as we leave town. We shouldn't have any issues, actually, as we make our way south out of town and through the New York area. We'll pass south through Harrisburg and south into Middletown, Virginia with few issues. There could be some chunky looking clouds as we end the day, but we'll end up problem free.
DAY TWO
As we continue south into Virginia and eventually into North Carolina, the threat for thunderstorms will increase as the day goes on. By Roanoke, we'll be dodging showers and storms. Nothing strong in terms of hail or wind, and storms won't last much longer than 15 minutes at a time since we'll be driving through them, but we may have to concern ourselves with heavy rain and some frequent lightning as we hone in on Hickory, but as long as we have some good Aquatreads, I think we'll be OK.
Hickory, North Carolina
Posted by Ryan
Ah Hickory, one of the finest towns named after wood out there.
At 353PM, ET, Hickory was reporting a temperature of 87 degrees with clear skies and a climbing dew point in the low 60s. A jet ridge was arcing through the east, with plenty of hot, humid air building underneath it. At the surface, the jet arc is representative of a warm and cold front, with the cold front parked just west of the Appalachians, with severe thunderstorms firing through much of central Tennessee, thanks to the sharp contrast in airmasses, but with little vorticity, meaning a low threat for tornadoes.
The jet is rather longwaved, and there is almost nothing behind it. Rather than sweep through the Carolinas, the system is expected simply to get shredded and disappear in terms of a surface based system. Expect hot weather to continue, though low level eddies will generate a few afternoon thunderstorms for most of the American Southeast, including Hickory and western North Carolina.
Tomorrow - Isolated afternoon thunderstorms, otherwise hot and humid, High 84, Low 66
Sunday - Isolated afternoon thunder, a degree or two cooler, High 81, Low 62
TWC: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. high 84, Low 64
Sunday - A few thunderstorms possible. High 81, Low 63
AW: Tomorrow - Sun and clouds with a shower or thunderstorm around, mainly later; very warm High 86, Low 64
Sunday - Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 83, Low 60
NWS: Tomorrow - A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly cloudy High 86, Low 64
Sunday - A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy High 80, Low 63
WB: Tomorrow - Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny in the morning... Then partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 67
Sunday - Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 81, Low 61
Accuweather's sounds less like a forecast than a recipe. Couple of showers and a thunderstorm. Here is the infrared satellite, colorized for your amusement. The higher tops, which mean thunderstorms, are the more expressively colored, such as those over Tennessee.
