Casper, Wyoming

As temperatures are expected to soar here in the Upper Midwest this weekend, let’s venture to the Rockies and take a peek at how things will pan out in Central Wyoming!

At 1120pm MDT, the temperature at Casper, WY was 61 degrees under fair skies. Low pressure found over the Northern High Plains will shift its way into Central Canada throughout the day Saturday, trailing a boundary back into the Great Basin. Luckily for Casper, the main focus of any precip will be over the Dakotas as hot, humid air streams northward into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, kicking up storms off to the east. Low pressure that develops over the Great Basin Saturday shifts into the Central Rockies on Sunday. This increased cloud clover will bring much lower temps during the day, and as the overall boundary sags a bit southward, chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening increases.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 57.
Sunday: Increasing clouds and cooler. Possible evening thunderstorms. High 81, Low 54.

TWC: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 55.
Sunday: Cloudy, isolated showers. High 80, Low 54.

AW: Saturday: Partly sunny; hot. High 91, Low 55.
Sunday: Mainly cloudy; not as warm. High 80, Low 52.

NWS: Saturday: Sunny then mostly sunny and breezy. High 91, Low 53.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy then chance of thunderstorms. High 85, Low 59.

WB: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 89, Low 58.
Sunday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 77, Low 53.

WN: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 91, Low 53.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 85, Low 59.

FIO: Saturday: Foggy, then partly cloudy. High 93, Low 63.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day, isolated showers. High 83, Low 58.

We see a fairly quiet pattern over Wyoming, while a thunderstorm complex is keeping things interesting along the Canadian border.

A hot weekend is on it’s way

Take a look at the high temperatures coming your way this weekend, middle America.

Now, this map, in my opinion, is a bit misleading, becaue we have been groomed tro believe that red is hot and yellow is merely warm. Look again, though, and see that yellow is 90. Triple digits will be possible as far north as central South Dakota tomorrow, even if the color scale is a touch muted.

This doesn’t take into account the humidity that will flow northward a long with the heat. Excessive Heat advisories are in place across the region this weekend, as far north as Minnesota thanks to heat indices expected to reach the 110s in some northern states. After a cool start, this will feel even hotter for local residents.

Double Duque’s

Does that title make you think of Dubuque? it did in my head, but I’m not sure about it now, seeing it on paper. Anyways, this is in reference to the fact that we had two forecasts in Dubuque last week. Anthony made a forecast on the 18th, and I followed up on the 21st. There was no overlap in forecast period, and I can say that we both defeated 2 of our rival outlets. The difference was that Anthony tied all of the other ones, and The Weather Channel throttled the rest of us on the 21st. So congrats everyone, you pretty much all won (except Weatherbug and on the 18th, but The Weather Channel really stood out on the 21st.
Actuals: Wednesday, Trace of rain, High 75, Low 57
Thursday, High 78, Low 67
Saturday – .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 57
Sunday – .32 inches of rain, High 78, Low 67

Grade: B-C (18th) A-C (21st)

Nashville, Tennessee

The Music City is our stop for this forecast. I think it’s an unfair sobriquet, frankly, because while Nashville is the home of Country Music, Memphis, just down the road, has a lot of jazz and blues history, as well as Graceland and Elvis. Gosh darn it, Tennessee should just be the Music State.

At 853AM, CT, Nashville was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees, even at this early hour. A remnant vorticity maximum was bringing thunderstorms to western Tennessee, though more broadly, the Tennessee Valley was under a broad ridge of high pressure.
After the vort max subsides, It will be warm high pressure taking hold in central Tennessee. Generally speaking, this usually means isolated showers and storms in the summertime, and that will be no different tomorrow and especially Saturday. It will be more active to the north, synoptically, but scattered afternoon showers and storms are more likely than not throughout the southeast.
Tomorrow – Stuffy, with a chance of afternoon showers and storms, High 88, low 70
Saturday – A little clearer, but still a threat for afternoon thunder, High 90, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 92, Low 69
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 94, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a thunderstorm High 91, Low 69
Saturday – Partly sunny, warm; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 92, low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 92, Low 69
Saturday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 92, low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 89, Low 70
Saturday – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 90, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 92, Low 69
Saturday – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 92, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain tomorrow evening. High 91, Low 70
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, low 72

Here are the scattered storms over western Tennessee. Expect a lot less organization as the weekend rolls around.

Canton, Ohio to Dubuque, Iowa

One day. One long day, and four states, those are the stats on this Midwestern trek. It will take a little over 9 hours, albeit those will be traffic slogged in Chicago, to cover 608 mles. How bad will traffic be? Google suggests an alternate route through Indianapolis that is less than an hour longer, but covers 72 more miles. The pace of our route is 66.4mph, which doesn’t seem daunting, but it does seem optimistic.

Canton, Ohio, via

Low pressure in the Great Lakes is bringing some northerly flow to the Northern Plains and cycling in batches of rain and isolated thunderstorms to most of our route. The low is shifting north and a little east, however, and by tomorrow, the Ohio and Indiana portions of our journey will be in the clear. A second volley of wet weather will cycle into the region late in the day tomorrow, and while most of the activity will be heavy clouds in northern Illinois, we should expect some rain in spits and starts between Chicago and the Quad Cities, with thinner clouds bout those same spots of rain between Davenport and Dubuque. Not much, but it will be there, probably when you are bringing luggage to your hotel.

By Dirk – originally posted to Flickr as Dubuque Iowa, CC BY 2.0,

Dubuque, Iowa

Yes! We are forecasting for the same city in Iowa twice in a week. Anthony and I are operating on slightly different calendars, and there was overlap this week. Which of us does Dubuque best?

At 853AM, CT, Dubuque was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 63 degrees. Winds from the east were picking up, feeding into a line of very strong thunderstorms that were barreling down I-80, passing through Marshalltown on their way to Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. The heaviest activity will remain south of Dubuque, but Dubuque won’t be completely unscathed when all is said and done.
The line of storms is a true derecho, following a stationary front that runs south of Dubuque towards Missouri and into Kentucky and Tennessee. The northwestern part of the boundary is poised to lift further north as an area of low pressure moves through Iowa, reinvigorating the chance for showers and storms later this evening. The low that lifts north is just a mild perturbation in a broader, progressively weakening system in the northern Plains. The weakening of this parent low means that clearing will be slow to come to Deubuque, and this weekend will be plagued by chances of rain throughout the weekend as the system occludes over eastern Iowa. There may be a stray thunderstorm embedded within showers.
Tomorrow- Overcast with rain and some thunderstorms, High 74, Low 56
Sunday – Rain, heavier and with embedded storms late, High 77, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day High 78, Low 57
Sunday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 80, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, humid; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 76, low 58
Sunday – Remaining cloudy, thunderstorms, strong late; humid High 80, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 74, Low 58
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likey, High 77, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 81, low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 72, Low 61
Sunday – Possible light rain throughout the day. High 80, Low 69

I’m a little cooler than most, especially on Sunday, but my logic is this: Rainy, cloudy days rarely happen when it’s 80 out. Here is the radar, with a line of storms screaming through southern Iowa.

Severe weather lingering to the south

Before we begin, let’s take a moment to appreciate the duck like appearance of today’s severe weather outlook.

Quack quack quack. Now, the breast meat of this duck-look is featuring an enhanced risk of severe weather. Looking at the bulk of the severe weather in the forecast, it is apparent that here is a cold front running roughly from the Great Lakes to the Red River Valley, with a second embedded low over north Texas to inflame any severe storms in the region.

There is something mildly unusual about this particular forecast, and it has been part of an ongoing trend to the spring and early meteorological summer. It’s been so cold in the central US that the bullseye for severe weather hasn’t really shifted as far north as it usually does this time of year.

Here is the SPC climatology for severe weather for 6/19s through history.

Certainly, there has been severe weather further north this season, such as the tornadoes in Dayton and Jefferson City, and Kansas and Nebraska have had some severe storms as well, but the particularly cool start to summer in the Upper Midwest has kept the Great Lakes fairly quiet so far this season, it has also lead to a prolonged storm season through Texas and Louisiana.

With the long term outlook for the next couple of weeks turning warmer in the center of the country, the severe threat looks to be moving further north. Additionally, a standing trough coming to the west looks to set up a clash of air masses in the Dakotas late in the month to the beginning of July. It’s certainly too far out to make any specific predictions, but it certainly looks like we are on our way to course correction through the middle of summer.

Dubuque, Iowa

As we close in on the official start of Summer later this week, let’s take a look at how the Upper Midwest will fare over the next couple of days.

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at Dubuque, IA was 68 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A weak boundary continues to linger from Michigan through IA back into the Central Plains. It’s the focus of scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity and looks to remain so for tomorrow. There’s a chance of scattered shower activity during the daytime hours as it shifts away from the Dubuque area, while thunderstorm activity should remain off to the south. Thursday should be on the dry side as the aforementioned boundary shifts away and in advance of another low pressure system shifting into the Dakotas. There might be some shower activity on Friday, but not Thursday!

Wednesday: Scattered showers possible. High 71, Low 61.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and warmer. High 75, Low 56.

TWC: Wednesday: Morning showers. High 75, Low 63.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 77, Low 56.

AW: Wednesday: Cloudy, a touch of rain. High 72, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy; comfortable. High 75, Low 56.

NWS: Wednesday: Chance of showers. High 74, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 76, Low 57.

WB: Wednesday: Chance of storms. High 71, Low 63.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 57.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 74, Low 62.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 76, Low 57.

FIO: Wednesday: Light rain until afternoon. High 73, Low 64.
Thursday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 59.

There’s some light rain shower activity off to the west. We’ll see another day of this smattering of activity before things clear out.

Late night, no worries

I think it’s ok that Victoria-Weather and a couple of other outlets left the mention of rain out of the forecast in Omaha for yesterday. There were only a couple of drops, and they all came in the 10 o’clock hour, after everyone should have been in bed anyway. I guess it doesn’t really work like that though, so we have to give credit to The Weather Channel and the resurgent Weatherbug, who tied atop the forecast, thanks in part to their dash of Monday precip.
Actuals: Sunday – High 86, Low 64
Monday – Rain reported, not measured, High 82, Low 66

Grade: B-C