Momentum

We verified a forecast for Racine yesterday, and I will just say that the verification in Victoria could not have been more different. For one thing, it was sunny throughout the forecast period. An expected advance from a tropical storm never really happened and it was honestly pretty great through the middle of last week, just a bit more humid on Wednesday. Clime kept their momentum (ah, there is the title source) by tying Accuweather for the forecast victory.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 77, Low 44
Wednesday – High 83, Low 50

Grade: A-C

Racine, Wisconsin to Victoria, Texas

We’re taking the rare 2 1/2 day trip that doesn’t once leave the Central Time Zone. The route will cover 1281 miles at a pace of 64.6mph, which means the full days will cover about 517 miles, leaving a pretty easy day to conclude the trip. Here’s hoping the weather along the route is just as easy.

DAY ONE (Friday)

Racine, Wisconsin

Our first day of our drive will be a fine lesson in Midwest driving. We’ll slice through Illinois and southeastern Missouri, including Chicago, as well as a raft of farm country in between. Low pressure will be just recently departing Wisconsin, but will still be spinning over Michigan as we depart. There will certainly be some overcast through Chicago, but cool and crisp northwest winds will begin to force their way in as we pass through Champaign. The sun will be out through southern Illinois, though it may be breezy. We’ll pop into Missouri and reach the Bootheel town of Caruthersville to conclude the first day of our trek.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
A late season ridge will be building back into the south central US over the weekend, with temperatures giving everyone a reprieve before the real winter air starts getting ideas. For our purposes, mostly sunny skies are going dominate the drive from Caruthersville through Arkansas and south to Lufkin, Texas, where we will spend our wild Saturday night.

DAY THREE (Sunday)
Hurricane Norma is going to spiral back into the Mexican Coast over the weekend, and will have her work cut out for herself, attempting to navigate the Chihuahua Desert. There will be an onshore flow as a result of the churning environment in the northern US and enhanced by Norma’s trek across northern Mexico, so our half day through east Texas is likely to be cloudy, with a few spots of drizzle possible, especially after we’ve arrived in Victoria.

Victoria, Texas

Victoria, Texas

Victoria-Weather is forecasting for Victoria, Texas, and one might wonder if we have a home field advantage. I can assure you that we do not. Victoria-Weather is named after my home town of Victoria, Minnesota. Slightly different climates.

At 1051AM, CT, Victoria was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies and a brisk northerly wind. This will surely keep temperatures cooler for the Gulf Coast this morning. the wind is based on a surface flow, however, and high pressure is blanketing the middle of the country. Flow aloft is fairly stagnant, and cold air will not be actively imported as winds start to subside this afternoon.
A weak, quick hitting trough is developing in the lee of the Rockies, and will be moving northeast towards the Upper Midwest. The flow in the region will not alter much, thanks to sluggish jet flow in the region, but Victoria may see a little bit of a rise in humidity as the Gulf opens to the feature to the north.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 49
Wednesday – Warner, a bit stuffier, High 81, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow РA mainly sunny sky. High 77, Low 45
Wednesday – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 77, Low 41
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine; breezy in the afternoon High 84, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 46
Wednesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, low 48
Wednesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 45
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 53

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 45
Wednesday – Sunny, High 83, Low 53

Those are some chilly morning lows for as far souh as Victoria is. The clouds over the Gulf certainly depict the vigorous off shore flow that is being observed. The rippling of the clouds parallel the coast, with nothing on land tells the story.

Drips and drab

One day, I will stop trying to find cute names for these verifications, but today is not that day. Victoria’s Thursday was drab, with overcast keeping temperatures on the low end, while there was a little bit of light drizzle as low pressure in the northern US entrained flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Victoria-Weather had the best temperature forecast for the day, but we, along with the second best temperature forecaster (Forecast.io) missed on precipitation, and thus, V-W dropped into a 4-way tie with Accuweather, the Weather Service and WeatherNation. Congratulations to Accuweather, who finally had their first forecast win of the year, even if it was just a quarter share!
Actuals: Wednesday – High 78, Low 51
Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 59

Grade: B-C

Victoria, Texas

This seems to always be a little confusing. I’m putting together a forecast for Victoria, Texas, and I’m happy to do so, but this site is named after my home town, which is in Minnesota, and we forecast for a lot of places, everywhere in the country, and not just Victorias. OK? All right, let’s forecast.

At 1151AM, CT, Victoria was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. A cold front lay off shore, extended from a line of severe thunderstorms in Mississippi and Alabama, and brisk north winds blew through the Gulf Coast. Upper level troughs were trailing meekly behind, bringing some bands of clouds to the Red River Valley, though Victoria looked good.
A shallow ridge will bring about pleasant and quiet weather tomorrow. A trough racing out of the Rockies will be undercut by an increasingly laminar jet over the southern US. While the through will parent a decent pressure fall, it will be robbed of moisture by the flow to the south. There should be just enough moisture entrainment across the Gulf, however, to lead to low clouds and fog in Victoria on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 52
Thursday – Overcast with fog at times, High 79, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 79, Low 55
Thursday – Variable clouds with thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon High 80, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 79, Low 54
Thursday – Cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm in the area High 77, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 53
Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 56
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High 78, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 53
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 80, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 60

I think these qualify as good days on the Gulf Coast. It’s not too chilly for locals, and it’s not too hot for guests. Check out he local satellite imagery, with a band of clouds that isn’t nearly as threatening as it appears.