Drips and drab

One day, I will stop trying to find cute names for these verifications, but today is not that day. Victoria’s Thursday was drab, with overcast keeping temperatures on the low end, while there was a little bit of light drizzle as low pressure in the northern US entrained flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Victoria-Weather had the best temperature forecast for the day, but we, along with the second best temperature forecaster (Forecast.io) missed on precipitation, and thus, V-W dropped into a 4-way tie with Accuweather, the Weather Service and WeatherNation. Congratulations to Accuweather, who finally had their first forecast win of the year, even if it was just a quarter share!
Actuals: Wednesday – High 78, Low 51
Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 59

Grade: B-C

Victoria, Texas

This seems to always be a little confusing. I’m putting together a forecast for Victoria, Texas, and I’m happy to do so, but this site is named after my home town, which is in Minnesota, and we forecast for a lot of places, everywhere in the country, and not just Victorias. OK? All right, let’s forecast.

At 1151AM, CT, Victoria was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. A cold front lay off shore, extended from a line of severe thunderstorms in Mississippi and Alabama, and brisk north winds blew through the Gulf Coast. Upper level troughs were trailing meekly behind, bringing some bands of clouds to the Red River Valley, though Victoria looked good.
A shallow ridge will bring about pleasant and quiet weather tomorrow. A trough racing out of the Rockies will be undercut by an increasingly laminar jet over the southern US. While the through will parent a decent pressure fall, it will be robbed of moisture by the flow to the south. There should be just enough moisture entrainment across the Gulf, however, to lead to low clouds and fog in Victoria on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 52
Thursday – Overcast with fog at times, High 79, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 79, Low 55
Thursday – Variable clouds with thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon High 80, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 79, Low 54
Thursday – Cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm in the area High 77, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 53
Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 56
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High 78, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 53
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 80, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 60

I think these qualify as good days on the Gulf Coast. It’s not too chilly for locals, and it’s not too hot for guests. Check out he local satellite imagery, with a band of clouds that isn’t nearly as threatening as it appears.