When we looked at Chico earlier this month, it didn’t appear that there was much of a trend, but when we bore out the actual verification numbers, it turned out that yes, there was a trend. From the 16th to the 17th it got a bit warmer, both during the day and during the night. It isn’t crazy hot yet, but this little window into April was a sign that it’s coming. WeatherNation ended up getting the top forecast, all by themselves. Actuals: April 16th, High 75, Low 49 April 17th, High 77, Low 54
A tag team of systems moving through the country are going to bring quite a bit of severe activity through the weekend. It will be mostly in the Plains, and will start tomorrow with some significant storms possible, especially in the central Plains. The show will really get going over the weekend, though. Saturday looks like the more hectic day, as there is already a 30% outlook on Saturday, which is a long way out to think that there will be strong storms. Watch out in the highlighted areas.
It’s going to be a one day cross section of middle America. From northern Indiana to northwest Arkansas, we will take a long, 11+ hour day, covering 742 miles, for a pace of nearly 66mph. Indiana and Arkansas are closer than you think!
Elkhart, Indiana
A weakening system over the Great Lakes is getting drawn into the sphere of influence administered by a larger system trekking through the Gulf Stream. The weaker trailer is bringing some light rain to Elkhart tonight, but will be out of the picture by tomorrow morning. The feature is dangling a trough southward before it curls to the west, where it will lie stationary tomorrow. High pressure is building in over the north central US, but it won’t overpower the boundary and send it further south. Instead, the tail of the front will pass through the Ozarks, and while we will probably use our northern route to avoid any visibility issues, we will still enjoy them in their misty glory upon our arrival in Fayetteville.
It can be pretty muggy in south Texas, hotter than most of us northerners an even comprehend. A temperature of 83 degrees, though, is pretty palatable, even with some humidity. That’s where it sat in Victoria on the 14th and 15th if this month, an all together comfortable set of days in a part of the world that can be notoriously uncomfortable. It was a little uncomfortable as well for The Weather Channel, who won the day, but by a narrow margin. Actuals: April 14th, High 83, Low 63 April 15th, High 83, Low 70
I’m not happy. It’s about 40 degrees and windy, and generally, it’s colder than normal across the middle of the country. Matters were made worse when I spoke with someone in California who was talking about how warm it was today. Jokes on them, because this is the map for the 8-14 day outlook.
We’ve had a pretty noisy stretch over the last couple of days, with severe weather sweeping through the Plains over the last two days, and into the Mid Mississippi Valley today. High pressure is moving to the middle of the country tomorrow, and will stamp out much severe weather from then on, at least through the weekend, and perhaps through the beginning of the following week.
If you live in the center of the country, you were just experiencing some wet and stormy weather over the last couple of days, and through the end of the week, you will see temperatures that are well below normal. Great news, though, as the end of the month, nearly nationwide, is expected to be warmer than normal.
Among the places seeing warmer temperatures on the way is Phoenix. It’s not going to be crazy, but it will be a few degrees shy of 100 next week.
We’re headed westward on a three day trek out of Texas. Expect a pace of 66.8mph for our 3 1/2 days of travel. That means full days will cover about 534 miles, and we will see quite a bit of southwestern, desert and Spanish inspired sites. This is the time of year to travel through the area, as it won’t be too stormy, and it won’t be too hot. Yet.
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
Victoria, Texas
There is a large system moving through the center of the country today, and a cold front will sweep through east Texas without fanfare this afternoon. One might lead you to believe that will completely clear out the atmosphere behind it, but it will not. Another high Plains disturbance will start the wheels in motion almost immediately. This won’t do a lot to our drive tomorrow, but some more moisture being pulled into the region will mean some popcorn clouds through Fort Stockton. After that though, yeah, it will be pretty quiet, and the day will end in Wild Horse, Texas, which is north of the Big Bend, but about as far from civilization as you can get.
DAY TWO (Thursday) The drive from Wild Horse in west Texas will be briefly enlivened by passage through El Paso, Las Cruces and Tucson, but not by much weather. There is some signal for a little bit of moisture south of Arizona, so sure, maybe a cloud or two as we approach the south metro of Phoenix, but I’m not buying into it too much. I said it won’t be hot in Arizona for the drive, and by that I mean it won’t be as hot as it can be in Arizona, with temperatures in the mid 90s as we arrive in Chandler, on the south side of the Phoenix metro area on Thursday afternoon.
DAY THREE (Friday) This is the kind of day one should expect when traversing the Mojave. Skies will be mostly clear and temperatures will be warm. We’ll make it to the 5 and head north around Santa Clarita, ending up in Lost Hills in the Central Valley, and call our day good.
DAY FOUR (Saturday) This is a pretty simple northbound trek to our final destination. We’ll see Stockton and Sacramento on the way to Chico, but not a heck of a lot of weather. A prevailing west wind will produce some clouds in the mountains east of our route, but sunglasses are still needed until we arrive.
But the Upper Peninsula is under burn advisories because the threat for wild fires in the region is so high. They got one storm this month, but it is still abnormally dry in the region, and with a strong system developing in the Plains and moving towards the Great Lakes, wind is going to pick up as well, meaning that if something does touch off, it could spread rapidly.
