I’ve earned this

How many times have I mentioned that warm weather keeps continuing in the middle of the country, and we are looking more and more like we are getting out of winter without much, if any more snow? Naturally, that has invited this 72 hour accumulation forecast, which will only fill in in the Upper Midwest as the forecast period moves toward the weekend.

Storms ravage the Midwest

A two day severe weather marathon stretched from Kansas to Ohio with tornadoes starting near Topeka, and becoming increasingly more destructive, ultimately leaving lives turned upside down across Indiana and northwest Ohio in particular.

The system came into being in an almost textbook manner. There was a stationary boundary in the PLains that needed only be given the energy of an upper level trough to get moving. That was when the severe storms started in Wednesday, with discrete super cells cropping up in northeastern Kansas. In addition to the tornadoes around Topeka, there was very large hail seen in the Kansas City suburbs.

The system got more organized as Wednesday turned to Thursday, and the warm sector we look for in a severe weather outbreak showed up in the southern Great Lakes. Severe weather developed all the way southwest to near Dallas, with strong winds and large hail reported in many locations. It will be the tornadoes found in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio that will be remembered, though.

Storms rotate the most near the center of an area of low pressure, as a general rule of thumb. There is enough built in vorticity that any storm specific helicity is just added to the mix, and can both make tornadoes and very large hail likely. The low tracked through the Great Lakes, and ultimately, destructive tornadoes followed.

The two areas that were most directly impacted were Winchester, Indiana, where an estimated EF-3 tornado left a swath of destruction throughout the city, and in Logan County Ohio, north of Springfield, were three people were killed by a tornado.

This is the beginning of the severe weather season, lest we forget, and we have at least three more months of the particularly busy part of the year. Fortunately, we are coming off a quiet year for severe weather, and this part of the country is having a quiet spell to recover. Let’s hope this is as bad as it gets this year, but I fear it won’t be.

March melt down

Last week was a warm one. It stood out in a summer of record heat across the world, and particularly in the Great Lakes region. Fond du Lac, our forecast city on Monday night, saw temperatures launch all the way into the low 70s on Tuesday, which even exceeded the expectations of our forecast outlets. Naturally, warmer forecasts had better scores, but curiously, the clouds were clear enough to allow for chilly overnight lows. As has often been the case this year, it was The Weather Channel who collected the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday High 71, Low 42
Wednesday – High 67, Low 31

Grade: C-F

Davenport, Iowa to Missoula, Montana

We’re going to be taking a trip through the northern High Plains. The beginning of spring in this part of the world is liable to be pretty gnarly this time of year, but with the winter we’ve had, that just doesn’t seem as likely. We’re on a 2 1/2 day trek that will cover 1434 miles at a blistering pace of 66mph, with day’s one and two finishing after 528 miles.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Davenport, Iowa

Despite the most formidable severe weather outbreak in at least a couple of years occurring in the middle of the country over the last couple of days, there is an unassociated Alberta Clipper moving through the Canadian Prairies. This will lead to a trough of cool air in the Upper Midwest as we get going on Saturday, but crisp blue skies will emerge by the time we hit Sioux City. The blue skies continue west past Mitchell to Plankinton, South Dakota, our stop for the night.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
Not much is going to change above ground as we continue westbound through South Dakota. We’ll take a jog north from the Black Hills and avoid Wyoming, but make it to the Canadian Plains southeast of Billings. The town we stop in will be Toluca, which is going to arrive about a half hour before we hit Billings.

DAY THREE (Monday)
Another clipper is going to sweep out of the Alberta Rockies overnight Sunday into Monday, and a lee trough will kick up some clouds in Montana as a result. There is a whole lot of Montana still left to drive through, and fortunately, it will all be dry. We’ll settle into Missoula and have a clear view of the scenery, because the weather will be quite cooperative.

Missoula, Montana

Davenport, Iowa

We’re continuing a recent trend of forecasting in the western Great Lakes with a trip to the Quad Cities.

At 252PM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with a brisk south wind and clear skies, There appeared to be a vorticity maximum near St. Joseph, Missouri, and a whorl of clouds over the center of the United States was bringing a few of the clouds north to eastern Iowa, but the the real threat for deteriorating conditions is further to the southwest, where low pressure is going to continue developing over the next couple of days.
By tomorrow evening, areas near an emerging warm front will start to feature show rain and thunderstorms across southeastern Iowa. The center of low pressure will start to shift northeastward, and what had been convective in nature at the beginning of the day will become cooler and more stratiform rain showers, ultimately giving way to cool cloudy skies in the evening.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, late thunder possible, High 67, Low 47
Thursday – Rain with embedded thunderstorms. Ending late, then cooler, High 58, Low 43(Non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. High 72, Low 45
Thursday – Showers and thunderstorms. High 60, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and warm with a shower in the area High 67, Low 47
Thursday – A thick cloud cover, breezy and mild with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; thunderstorms could bring damaging winds, flash flooding and hail High 63, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, (late rain) High 70, Low 48
Thursday – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. High 63, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 68, Low 51
Thursday – Rain with thunderstorms, High 55, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and scattered storms, High 58, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Drizzle, High 63, Low 45

This forecast was interrupted quite a few times while I tried to put it together. That vort max I mentioned at the beginning actually produced a couple severe storms east of Kansas City. Still not too bad in Davenport tonight, but it will deteriorate through the week. We’ll see at what pace.

Fond du Lac, Wisconsin

It’s been delightful here in Minnesota today, and I can’t imagine it’s been much different over in the Fox Valley.

At 1053PM, CT, Fond du Lac was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures are going to continue cooling off this evening thanks to the clear skies and dew points down in the 30s. A thermal ridge is parked over the middle of the country, so the cool down will be quickly forgotten after sunrise tomorrow.
A very week wave is going to ripple through the region tomorrow. It will take temperatures away from the record highs seen today, and provide a few clouds, but expect a dry day in Fond du Lac. A strong trough is bringing more mountain snow to the northern Rockies will continue to progress and develop rapidly into a strong area of low pressure in the southern High Plains. A warm front will become evident in the mid-Mississippi Valley, but it will not be an issue in Fond du Lac on Wednesday. Moisture coming into the region will lead to some additional clouds for Fond du Lac, but the rain will wait until Thursday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy and cooler, High 60, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 69, Low 43
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies High 62, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and warm; sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon High 68, Low 45
Wednesday – Sun through high clouds and remaining warm High 62, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly sunny,  High 60, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the evening then clearing, High 65, Low 48
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 57, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 46
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 40

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 45
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 37

It’s going to be busy aloft, but not much is actually going to go on in the city of Fond du Lac. Not until Thursday, anyway.

One last chill before spring

It sure seemed like the cold air that trailed last weekend’s winter storm is a last gasp of the winter, given how warm it is going to be this week. Peoria even had the dignity to be colder than forecasts originally indicated by a handful of degrees. One outlet pegged the high temperature forecast on both days, thanks to a cooler numbers than most of the other outlets (except Weatherbug, of course). That top forecaster was The Weather Channel.
Actuals: Saturday – High 45, Low 33
Sunday – High 49, Low 30

Grade: A – C