Lebanon, Pennsylvania

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After some pretty disastrous forecasting results to start the year, I am hoping that a return to the eastern US will give our outlets a bit better fortune. Of course that only works if the weather is quiet. That doesn’t look to be the case…

At 955PM, ET, Lebanon was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with fog. The entirety of southeastern Pennsylvania was blanketed by fog in the wake of a cold front that was reaching the South Jersey coast. Low pressure has shifted into New England, with clearing air behind the boundary. Tonight, however, the lingering low level moisture and cooling air is fostering the low visibility in the region.
Friday will be brisk, but dry at the surface. With clearer skies tomorrow, expect the daily low at midnight, leading to Saturday. The strong seasonal jet is continuing to run west to east through the Ohio Valley into the mid Atlantic. The jet features many streaks, so even though the flow is laminar, redevelopment of surface features is ongoing. Low pressure will reemerge in the Plains and start lifting a warm front towards Lebanon by Saturday afternoon. Some wet snow may fall initially, but it will be followed by an icy mix.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, low 26
Saturday – Snow starts in the afternoon, and turns to a wintry mix. High 34, Low 22

TWC Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 38, Low 24
Saturday – Cloudy. Snow showers developing in the afternoon High 34, Low 21

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and windy; High 39, Low 26
Saturday – Cloudy with a coating to an inch of snow and sleet late in the afternoon; deteriorating travel conditions at nigh High 36, Low 23

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 35, Low 26
Saturday – A chance of snow before 4pm, then a chance of snow and sleet. Mostly cloudy, High 35, Low 22

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 26
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, a chance of snow, freezing rain an sleet in the afternoon, High 34, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 34, Low 26
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of sleet/snow High 35, Low 23

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 37, Low 22
Saturday – Blowing snow, High 38, Low 20

The system that left the fog left ice this morning. Sub optimal to be expecting it again so soon.

The trouble with the mountains

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A fun thing about forecasting in the foothills of the Rockies is that it’s tough to say with certainty exactly how your forecast is going to be off. You know that something will go sideways, but what, exactly? In the instance of Colorado Springs, it was our forecast lows on both Saturday and Sunday. We all saw clear overnight skies, which should have meant chilly morning lows. Alas, it was not to be. There were favorable winds for warming up the region, especially some howling southerlies on Sunday, and the cool temperature ended up a full 10 degrees warmer than most forecasts. Colorado springs embarrassed most outlets, but The Weather Channel held on for a W.
Actuals: Saturday, High 52, Low 41
Sunday, High 59, Low 41

Grade: C-F

January Forecaster of the Month

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It was a topsy turvy weather month, with the tragic and catastrophic fires in Los Angeles to the bizarre snow storm in the southeast. The month, and the era are both so out of sorts, it’s good to say that the top forecaster title belonged to the NWS last month.

OutletForecast Wins (year)
National Weather Service2
Accuweather1
Clime1
The Weather Channel
Victoria-Weather
WeatherNation
Weatherbug

Snow back where it belongs

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This is an image of Bridger Bowl ski area’s parking lot. Bridger Bowl is in Montana, northwest of Bozeman, and thus far, they have reported 6″ of snow today. Many other ski areas in the mountains of Montana are in a similar situation, as a ranging warm front slicing through the Montana Rockies is going to dump over a foot on some of the peaks and valleys of the region.

You know, where it’s supposed to be snowing. Low pressure is arriving from the Oregon Coast, laden with plenty of moisture, and merging with a cold pocket descending from the Canadian Rockies, giving the entire region snow. A reinforcing shot is coming in the next 24 hours, and after a break on Thursday, another shot will come on Friday. It’s really going to stack up in Big Sky Country. Better still, this is also bringing some moisture up and down the California Coast.

While the resorts appreciate the snow, they certainly also want guests to make it there safely. The activity looks like it will let up on Sunday.

The same verifications

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It seems that this winter, more than normal, we as a collective meteorological community are getting thrown off on our temperature forecasts. Clouds are being more pernicious, more influential than we’ve been properly anticipating. Such as it was in New Orleans, and it was in Holland before that. Clouds really held off a cool down last Monday in the Big Easy, but then, the temperatures plummeted on Tuesday as those clouds really prevented the afternoon warm up. It wasn’t the slow steady progression anyone expected, though I can confirm that after our forecast was over, things started to get back to normal in New Orleans. We’re still awaiting normal for the weather forecasters. It was a tight race, even if not a proud one, and the NWS got the wins.
Actuals: Monday – .02 inches of rain High 65, Low 52
Tuesday – High 56, Low 51

Grade C

Brunswick, Georgia to Colorado Springs, Colorado

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We’re taking a three day trek to start the weekend, headed from the coast to the mountains. Our drive will cover 1,766 miles, with the first two days concluding after 565 miles and a surprisingly brisk 70.6mph pace.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Brunswick, Georgia

There is a bit of drizzle on the Georgia Coast tonight, but the vast feature responsible for it is moving along responsibly. It will be dry in Brunswick by morning, and the length of our drive will remain so. This is good news, because winter driving in Atlanta and Birmingham can be hairy when things go sideways. We’ll get through both cities just fine, and end our day in Fulton, Mississippi.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
A large, broad trough that’s been hanging out at the upper levels of the western US for a couple of days is going to dampen out which will kick a lot of the wintry weather back north, and allow the mid-south to remain warm and dry. We will see mostly sunny skies through Memphis and Tulsa, eventually settling into Hallett, Oklahoma without seeing much.

DAY THREE (Monday)
As the jet sets up a west to east course through the northern US, a strong boundary will also set up from the northern Rockies through the Dakotas. This is where the action will be. Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado will be action free, and unseasonably warm.

Colorado Springs, Colorado

Colorado Springs, Colorado

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We’ve been out east for quite some time, so to conclude January, we are going to the Front Range to see what is going on in the Mountain Time Zone.

At 1254PM, MT, Colorado Springs was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with clear skies. Flow was scattered throughout the region, but upsloping a bit near Colorado Springs, making it the cold spot in the area. The pattern right now is rather outsized, with a deep area of low pressure in the mid-Atlantic, and another large feature moving into the Pacific Northwest. Expect some dampening to the pattern over the weekend, however.
The feature in the northwest will start pressing into the northern Rockies, putting eastern Colorado into a warm sector, though more upsloping may prevent Colorado Springs from getting as warm as the atmosphere would otherwise allow. By Sunday, a westerly flow will arrive, thanks to jet support flattening out. Warm air already in place will remain in southeastern Colorado, while precipitation will be stowed in Big Sky Country, leaving Colorado Springs a nice weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 51, Low 28
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 57, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 55, Low 35
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 60, Low 36

AW: Tomorrow – Mild with times of clouds and sun High 61, Low 33
Sunday – Mild with sun through high clouds High 66, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 55, Low 28
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 49, Low 26
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 57, Low 31

WN: tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 55, Low 28
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 57, Low 36

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 31
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 36

Man, temperatures are all over the map, aren’t they? I’m feeling a little bit uneasy about going any higher tomorrow, but temperatures today are having such a tough time getting any warmer, so I’m going to live with it. Here is the satellite, with some low clouds north of the Palmer Divide, and some higher stuff back in the western Colorado Rockies.

That warm Lake breeze

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A stiff wind off of Lake Michigan in January isn’t often known for being terribly warm, but when it is accompanied by a thick overcast, strange things happen. This was how it went in Holland for our forecast at the beginning of the week. Temperatures were as warm as 40 on Monday, but they were accompanied by winds that gusted to nearly 50mph as well. That is brisk! The thick layer of overcast, particularly overnight that accompanied these howling winds were enough to keep the temperature from dropping off too significantly, which allowed for the base that lead to the warm days. In fact, the nearest NWS station was so warm that all precipitation there was reported as light rain, which went astray from every single one of our forecasts. I teased Clime for being so warm, but in the end, their robots claimed victory.
Actuals: Sunday, High 32, Low 25
Monday . 02 inches of rain, High 40, Low 30

Grade: C-D

New Orleans, Louisiana to Brunswick, Georgia

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We’re taking a trip along the route of the most recent blizzard. Of course, against convention, we will be taking a trip through the south and along the Gulf Coast. It will take only a day to cover the 615 miles between the two towns, and the good news is, no blizzard!

New Orleans, Louisiana

Low pressure is getting ready to pop in west Texas. There are already showers with a few embedded thunderstorms in the middle part of the Lone Star State, but things will really take off tomorrow. Fortunately for us, we are leaving in the morning, and will be clear into Georgia by the time the severe warnings start coming out in Louisiana, generally west of New Orleans anyways. Unlike earlier this month, the primary conditions in the southeast for our drive will be a steady southerly wind, bringing warm, moist air to the region. It will make the southeast feel like the southeast, and make this beach day feel closer to what it should. The 60s, instead of the 30s.

Brunswick, Georgia