North Carolina doesn’t get enough respect as a large state. It will take over 5 hours over 367 miles. We will go at a pace of 66.3mph from the mountains to the sea, and see all that North Carolina has to offer.
North Carolina will be on the southern flank of a ridge that is drifting into the Atlantic, just off shore from New York, and the tail of a cold front will trigger some clouds across North Carolina. If we get out of the mountains early enough, we could see some fog. It should clear up after Hickory, but clouds will remain present across North Carolina for the remainder of our drive, and only more so as we sink further south and towards the coast in Jacksonville. Hope we drove to the right one.
Asheville is one of the more surprisingly attractive vacation destinations, thanks both to the setting in the Blue Ridge Mountains, and destinations like the Biltmore Mansion. Hopefully, the weather holds for any off season visitors.
At 1154AM, ET, Ashville was reporting some haze, with clear skies and a temperature of 60 degrees. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes was the name of the game, but lingering moisture from the Gulf was interacting with a surface feature in Alabama, bringing about some clouds south and west of the southern Appalachians, which was generating western slope overcast and a large whorl south of Asheville, but no real concerns. All eyes will be on a still developing trough and surface low in the northern High Plains. A cold front will be come well evident west of the Appalachians, from Lake Erie to Arkansas by tomorrow night, and the rotational energy with the system will eventually bring some warmer conditions and scattered clouds on Sunday and Monday as the boundary stages. As the parent low starts to track poleward and the front encounters the mountains, it will begin to deteriorate. Still, a little bit of rain is expected on Monday evening, with some cooling after the forecast period. Tomorrow – Breezy and mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 46 Monday – Partly cloudy early, with increasing clouds and rain late, High 61, Low 44
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 55, Low 43 Monday – Overcast with rain showers at times. High 63, Low 47
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler High 55, Low 44 Monday – Mostly cloudy with a bit of rain in the afternoon High 66, Low 41
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (late rain), High 56, Low 44 Monday – Showers likely, mainly between 11am and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, High 64, Low 39
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy (late rain) High 53, Low 46 Monday – Showers likely, High 63, Low 39
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, high 55, Low 43 Monday – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 63, Low 47
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 56, Low 44 Monday – Overcast throughout the day. High 65, Low 35
Those lows on Monday are going to be non standard, and places like The Weather Channel will be hurt by not having hourly forecasts out that far. If the clouds don’t fill in ahead of the front tomorrow like we expect, there is some real bust potential. Today, the satellite imagery looks more interesting than it probably is.
The verification for Kennewick sure was humbling. It wasn’t the case in San Antonio, however, as departing clouds and a little bit of exiting drizzle left the city with mild, almost cool conditions for a couple of days… just like we expected. Temperatures were a hair lower than what was in the forecast, but the high of 71 both Sunday and Monday was pretty close to what we all expected. The Weather Channel and Accuweather claimed a shared victory. Actuals: Sunday – High 71, Low 43 Monday – High 71, Low 40
The first forecast for December is on its way, and we’re going to one of the weather capitals of the country.
At 1053AM, CT, Oklahoma City was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees. There was a splotch of clouds over the Oklahoma City airport, but the rest of the region was seeing clear skies. Lingering moisture associated with the return flow at the back end of previous ridge led to morning haze and fog across the Gulf Coast, but generally laminar flow over the country is aiding in the development of weak low pressure in Texas. It is propelling clouds and moisture north into Oklahoma. As the strong seasonal jet, presently along the Canadian border begins to trough in the Canadian Prairies, a deep area of low pressure will emerge in the northern High Plains and the extra agitation will potentially trigger some light rain later in the day on Saturday. As the feature shifts to the east into the Great Lakes, the clouds will clear in order to lead to a warmer afternoon, but the beginning of next week will be on the colder side. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a little bit of drizzle, High 62, Low 45 Sunday – Warmer and clearer late, brisk in the evening. High 71, Low 44
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 59, Low 46 Sunday – Sunny. Becoming windy late. High 73, Low 46
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler High 61, Low 46 Sunday – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, mostly sunny and milder High 73, Low 46
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 49 Sunday – Sunny, High 73, Low 47
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, cooler, High 58, Low 48 Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 47
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 49 Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 47
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 62, Low 46 Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 72, Low 45
The temperature forecast was all over the map, model wise, but forecast outlets really converged. Here is a look at this afternoon’s satellite imagery, showing clouds on the way.
Temperatures aren’t incredibly warm right now, but they are above normal across the country, as our strong seasonal jet lies along the Canadian border, ensuring Arctic air is held at bay, and continues to force the various systems moving through North America into Canada, with little impact across the US.
There is a pretty decent area of low pressure coming together over Ontario tonight, preparing to move through New England over the next 48 hours, with some precipitation coming, including snow in the Green and White Mountains, but not down near the coast. In early December, a Canadian area of low pressure could reasonably be expected to bring about snow and wind, but without cold enough air in place, and a redirect towards the north thanks to the jet’s position, the storm will be more nuisance and less of a concern.
We will be graced by this mellow start to December only for a couple of days. The long range forecasts, while still on the warm end, suggest that more precipitation is going to be on it’s way for the rest of the month. Eventually, normal temperatures are expected for the northern part of the US, which means, of course, chilly winter weather. The snow is coming, and a white Christmas is probably on it’s way for a lot of people that are used to it.
More immediately, a trough will start to emerge in the second half of the weekend, with a strong, deep trough emerging in the center of the country. Cold air will spill into the Mississippi Valley, while low pressure and an active cold front start sweeping through the eastern third of the country to start next week. It is more likely that this is our first really good taste of winter, because the wet weather moving into New England isn’t really it.
Enjoy these quiet days, because things are going to get a bit more wintry as the month moves forward.
Was our forecast for Kennewick the worst we have ever done? No, I wouldn’t say that. This is a solid D effort all around, and consistently so, across the board. D- though. Ahead of a cold front, upslope flow socked Kennewick in last Monday, keeping temperatures nestled in the mid to upper 30s, with nary a chance to escape. Then, when the front came, to the shock of all participants, the moisture did “traverse the Cascades” and brought a little bit of light rain to the area. When the cloud cover cleared, and the sun came out on Tuesday, all while the upslope turned to downslope, temperatures were even allowed to leap all the way into the mid 50s, which is not what anyone had in mind. The top forecast was issued by the trio of The Weather Channel, Weatherbug and Forecast.io, but everyone was within 2 points of one another. That isn’t a good thing. Actuals: Monday – High 38, Low 36 Tuesday 06 inches of rain, High 55, Low 31
November is coming to a close, and we are reaching the final month of 2021. We’ll welcome the month with a 3 day road tri from the Garden State to the Lone Star State. It’s going to be a 1790 mile journey, at a 66mph pace, or for 530 miles on days one and two, with a long drive through the heart of Texas on Friday.
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
The train of systems moving through the country right now is following a Canadian track. There are little lobes of low pressure swinging south towards the Great Lakes, bringing rain and snow there, but that moisture doesn’t appear likely to traverse the Poconos, and we will head through the Mid-Atlantic with some high cloud cover, but it won’t be a bad day by any stretch of the imagination. We’ll make it to southwestern Virginia after our fist day, stopping in Chilhowie, which is about half an hour from the Tennessee border.
DAY TWO (Thursday) Low pressure will continue to barrel through Canada but is getting stronger and more well organized, preparing to doink New England just before the weekend. Some moisture will continue to dangle as far south as the high terrain of West Virginia and Virginia, but it should be ok in Chilhowie. As we traverse Tennessee the long way, we will enjoy good driving conditions and a lot of sun. We’ll end up in te northern suburbs of Memphis to end the day.
DAY THREE (Friday) As warm high pressure moves into the southeastern US, we are looking at a positive start to our Friday drive. The ridge moving east will bring about some return flow on the west side of the ridge. This moisture rich flow will probably not result in showers or storms, but that is a possibility that can’t be discounted south of Hillsboro and into San Antonio. Expect some haze and fog overnight when we reach San Anotnio, and the soupy atmosphere I think we all thought we left behind.
Every time I think of San Antonio, I find it is in a much further south location than I remember. It’s a big city that is totally different than any of the other big Texas towns.
At 951PM, CT, San Antonio was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 51 degrees. Dew points were nearly 50 degrees across the region as well, and some early fog was settling into the region. Low pressure had become established just offshore from Texas, and was helping to generate heavy rain in East Texas, with something resembling a feeder band arcing around towards Amarillo and Lubbock. The low was developed near the right entrance of a jet streak, and at the tail of a surface trough, and is not tropical in nature. As the jet shifts away, the low will disintegrate into the Gulf, while high pressure develops in the southern US. The surface pressure ridge will be transient, though upper level support will remain in place. Westerly flow across the southern Rockies will allow some additional warmth to spread across the region to begin the work week. Tomorrow – Morning clouds and fog, followed by a nice afternoon, High 68, Low 48 Monday – Sunny, High 73, Low 44
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 71, Low 46 Monday – Sunny skies. High 72, Low 44
AW: Tomorrow – Warmer with times of clouds and sun; ideal weather for one of the busiest travel days of the year High 70, Low 46 Monday – Comfortable with plenty of sunshine High 72, Low 43
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 68, low 47 Monday – Sunny High 70, Low 44
WB: Tomorrow – Not as cool, Partly cloudy, High 67, low 46 Monday – Sunny, High 70, Low 43
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 47 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 44
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 69, Low 46 Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 72, Low 43
Quite a bit of rain is showing up on radar, but none of it looms for San Antonio.
It sure got cold for the holiday week, didn’t it? All that started with a cold front that arrived over the weekend, and clipped Terre Haute just after midnight on Sunday morning. After nearly a half inch of rain on before midday on Sunday, temperatures peaked in the early afternoon, and dropped precipitously, reaching the mid-30s before Sunday turned to Monday. The forecast was actually pretty solid all the way around, with the top forecast going to the National Weather Service and Forecast.io, but weren’t markedly better than everyone else. Actuals: Saturday – High 52, Low 31 Sunday – .4 inches of rain, High 51, Low 37