Norwich, Connecticut

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Off to New England as we reach he dog days of summer. I suspect that many residents in the Norwich area would happily be on their way to Martha’s Vineyard or otherwise on vacation this time of year.

At 852PM, ET, Norwich was seeing a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. The temperatures over Long Island and near the coast in Connecticut were a shade lower as the sun had less time to shine. Left over mid level moisture along the coast has continued to mean clouds from Long Island southward, and with high pressure parked over the Atlantic will keep it in place for a while.
The next feature to keep an eye on is a standing trough in the Great Lakes. While the cold front won’t be moving eastward in any kind of hurry, the little progression there is will draw some of that lingering coastal moisture further north. The mere act of inducing some motion within this moist air mass will lead to some general showers and storms that will eventually reach eastern Connecticut by Thursday evening.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 61
Thursday – Late showers and storms, otherwise mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 59
Thursday – AM Showers, High 88, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83, Low 57
Thursday – Uncomfortably humid with intervals of clouds and sun; an afternoon thunderstorm in parts of the area High 86. Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny (late rain), High 84, Low 58
Thursday – A chance of showers before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 87, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. (late rain) High 85, Low 64
Thursday – Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 87, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 87, Low 68

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 59
Thursday – Light rain showers, High 87, Low 70

There isn’t enough there, in my opinion, to worry about showers tomorrow. It’s barely concerning on Thursday. Satellite shows those clouds along the Mid-Atantic coast.

Fresno, California

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Our forecast takes us to the piping hot Central Valley in California. Right out of the frying pan and into the fire, as they say.

At 653PM, PT, Fresno was reporting a temperature of 102, and smokey skies. The Raleigh Fire is located northeast of town, and smoke is observed at the airport, though the fire is nearly 100% contained.
There is an upper level trough moving through the Pacific Northwest, with a ridge moving into the area to start the work week. With flow becoming less organized, laminar upper level winds will be a bit stronger and more westerly. This would typically mean a bit of relief with more Pacific air and the chance for upper level flow, but lighter winds will mitigate any advantages.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 109, Low 73
Monday – Fair skies, hot, High 110, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 107, Low 71
Monday – Sunny, High 108, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Sweltering heat with blazing sunshine; heat will be dangerous, minimize outdoor activity High 108, Low 71
Monday – Blazing sunshine with the temperature approaching the record of 110 set in 1946; heat will be dangerous, minimize outdoor activity High 109, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot,  High 105, Low 71
Monday – Sunny and hot, high 105, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 103, Low 76
Monday – Sunny. High 106, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 105, Low 71
Monday – Sunny, High 105, Low 71

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 106, Low 73
Monday – Sunny, High 106, Low 72

This is the rare time where nearly everyone was forecasting below model guidance for several of the models. If some of those runs are right, Fresno will easily surpass that 110 record. Here is a map of Fresno with the location of the Raleigh Fire.

Updates 8/1

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

8:25PM: Happy August! We don’t tend to see a lot of the severe weather in the Plains that we can see during the spring and early summer. Late summer and the beginning of fall is typically the province of tropical season. The cold front, steady rain and cool temperatures moving through Michigan tonight are way too early!

This? This is just summer

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Have you heard about the heat dome? This has pushed hotter temperatures even further outside the typically warm parts of the middle and southern parts of the country, and nosing those warm temperatures up a couple of degrees. When we forecast for St. Joseph, however, the hot air wasn’t freakishly abnormal. It was in the low 90s in the afternoon, but surely there were complaints about low temperatures that remained in the mid to upper 70s. At least storms evaded the area, which meant temperatures were the only thing inhibiting sleep. Victoria-Weather picked up a victory in sultry St. Joe’s.
Actuals: July 18th, High 93, Low 77
July 19th, High 96, Low 76

Grade: C

Saginaw, Michigan

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

It seems as though life is going to get a bit more interesting in Michigan over the next 24 hours. Let’s see just how interesting it gets in Saginaw.

At 1215AM, ET, Saginaw was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 73 degrees. The dew point was 68, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see some fog overnight. While the SPC has hinted at thunderstorms, potentially strong, all day, the most recent model guidance has started to clarify two distinct batches of storms developing, and one is being seen over the Upper Peninsula, while the other is having a tougher time launching in eastern Wisconsin. A slow moving warm front moving through the area will provide the path for whatever develops to shift to the southeast. With the Wisconsin batch lagging behind, the UP area may take advantage, potentially leading to a higher threat for overnight or early morning severe weather.
While the warm front is the main show, the occluded low pressure center will ensure a threat for a few scattered showers into the afternoon as well. Expect a hot beginning to the work week in Saginaw, even while dodging rain drops. The low pressure center will move towards New England, leaving high pressure to build back in over Michigan on Tuesday with cooler conditions.
Tomorrow – Early morning storms, then mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Potential for severe thunderstorms High 84, Low 66
Tuesday – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late High 77, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Showers and a heavier thunderstorm in the morning; variable clouds, breezy, humid; thunderstorms can bring flooding downpours, hail and damaging wind gusts High 84, Low 68
Tuesday – Variable cloudiness, breezy and humid with widely separated thunderstorms High 80, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Partly sunny (early rain) High 79, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 83, Low 71
Tuesday – Partly cloudy High 81, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 79, Low 67

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 82, Low 67
Tuesday – Rain showers, High 76, Low 66

It’s looking more and more like the heavy storms are going to crop up and pass east of Saginaw. I imagine that will help temperatures sneak up fairly high. Nice work by us avoiding the heat dome!

St. Joseph, Missouri to St. George, Utah

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

This saintly journey is going to take us two days and cover 1188 miles. This trip will be about as mountainous as it can get, but will also be on fast freeways when we aren’t handling terrain. That said, expect a speed of 66.7mph, and to stop for the first night at approximately the 533 mile point.

DAY ONE (Sunday)

St. Joseph, Missouri

Our first day will contain none of that mountainous terrain I talked about in the introduction. We will run the length of Kansas and emerge through the prairies of eastern Colorado. We’ll land in Bennett, Colorado after a hot day of driving. Low pressure developing in the central Rockies means a warm front extended to the Upper Midwest and a reinforced heat dome through the Sunflower State. Steamy.

DAY TWO (Monday)
Low pressure will continue to spin in the central Rockies, which is bad news for our hopes for a clear drive. Showers and storms will be possible on the western and southern exposures of the higher terrain until we hit about Eagle, Colorado. The rest of Colorado will be fine, with warm dry conditions. Some monsoonal showers and storms are going to be in the picture for the last leg, from about Richland on south, but it won’t be a major or long lived threat. St. George can get pretty hot too, but it’s a dry heat.

Saint George, Utah