Mourning

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It is a sad day across the meteorology community. I know there are political undertones to everything, but particularly with the story today that hundreds of National Weather Service employees were laid off today and rumors are that there will be more to follow. I don’t believe it is controversial to say my heart aches for the mostly young men and women who had their dream jobs, and are now unemployed.

The American government is the single largest employer of meteorologists, and all of your favorite weather people have a personal connection with the Service one way or another. The compassion we feel is personal.

A lot has been made of how impersonal and cruel the cuts have been, which naturally makes it hurt more, knowing that friends and respected cohorts were so callously discarded. This has been a tough time for all federal employees and those that love them and appreciate them. The loss of meteorologists at the NWS cuts deeper for all of us, though.

We’ll notice next week as a major severe weather outbreak hits the southeast. We will again notice for subsequent storms this summer. We’ll notice during hurricane season. Private weather companies in America are built on the back of NWS data and systems. All of us will suffer under an understaffed Weather Service.

Other nations don’t have a similar bureau, but other nations don’t have the same kind of virulent, dangerous weather in all forms. In America, the federal Weather Service is a form of public safety that is irreplaceable. Forecast models come from the NWS, unless they come from abroad. Constant worldwide coordination seems like a challenge moving forward, staffing or not.

In a world where a high premium is placed on prediction, we are in uncertain times. Weather forecasting was changed forever today, and not for the better.

One of the last cold snaps

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In the wake of the same system that brought flurries that lingered for Sandusky, cold air spilled into Ohio Valley. Temperatures in Columbus, Indiana, for example, struggled to get out of the 20s on Friday, which meant all of our forecasts came in too warm. Things sorted themselves out a bit better on Saturday though, so the real tough spot was the first day. The Weather Channel had the best time of it on Friday, and that led to their victory for the day
Actuals: Friday – High 28, Low 15
Saturday – High 36, Low 14

Grade B-C

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania to San Luis Obispo, California

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What are you doing this week? How about a 5 day trip to the West Coast? The drive covers 2,760 miles, which will lend itself to a pace of 67mph, and about 539 miles a day. I-40 is calling your name!

DAY ONE (Monday)

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

The first day of our journey offers good omens. Sunny skies and above average temperatures await Monday in the Ohio Valley. There will be a bit of a northwest flow off the Lakes but it won’t be cold enough for a good Lake effect fetch. Just enjoy the scenery, and end the day in Indianapolis. Wow, even starting the trip with a stop in a real city with hotels and stuff! This trip is going to be great!

DAY TWO (Tuesday)e
As we enjoy the Circle City, a weak boundary, associated with a system moving through Canada, will slide through town, bringing a little sprinkle as we sleep. High pressure and more warm air will be in hot pursuit. It sounds exciting, but in effect, this just means we have more sunshine as we drive to Loma Linda, Missouri, just before the Oklahoma line.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
Flow in the Southern Plains will be a bit more turbulent on Wednesday, but only aloft. More clouds can be anticipated, but we will steer clear of any showers. That stuff will happen over central Oklahoma, long after we are through. The day in Glenrio, Texas, which is on the line with New Mexico.

DAY FOUR (Thursday)
We are more than halfway through the week, and more than halfway through the drive. Our second to last day will again be marked by blue skies and comfortable temperatures. We get another good sized town in Flagstaff for our destination (as opposed to a border town)

DAY FIVE (Friday)
Models are picking up on a rogue feature in the Pacific that, if realized, might bring some low clouds and drizzle to Point Concepcion. The drive from Flagstaff to the Coastal Range before that will be terrific, like the rest of the drive. Rain won’t last long or be likely, frankly, but prepare for fog and low clouds if that low is hanging offshore.

San Luis Obispo, California

San Luis Obispo, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

One of the longest named towns in our repertoire gets to host this late February forecast. The name may be the longest part of it.

At 1256PM, PT, San Luis Obispo was reporting clear skies and a brisk northwest wind. Despite the onshore flow, temperatures remained at 63, with a little more room to warm further. Low pressure in the Rockies is continuing to be tied to a feature in the Pacific Northwest, which is allowing for broadly onshore flow as far south as SLO.
A thermal ridge will emerge late in the forecast period, which will contribute to a bit of a warm up, but flow will continue to to be onshore, moderating temperatures through the early part of the work week.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 47
Tuesday – A little morning fog, then sunny, High 74, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 72, Low 49
Tuesday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 76, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun; breezy in the afternoon High 70, Low 47
Tuesday – Warm with plenty of sun High 77, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, except for patchy low clouds and fog in the morning. Fog locally dense with visibility of 1/4 mile or less, High 65, Low 52
Tuesday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then sunny, High 74, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 53

CLI – Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 47
Tuesday – Sunny, High 75, Low 50

Weatherbug is very sure of fog tonight, and has a very different forecast. But alas, no marine layer on satellite.

Flurries that won’t stop

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An under reported facet of the weather and forecasting in general is the wind direction. It stands a bit more at the forefront when lake effect snow is at play, as it was in Sandusky. The snow that was in the forecast lingered until the early afternoon on Friday, despite thoughts it would conclude on Thursday. Nobody had the snow right, so it came down to temperatures, and Victoria-Weather took the victory.
Actuals: Thursday – Snow reported, not measured, High 25, Low 14
Friday – Snow reported, not measured, High 30, Low 21

Grade – C-D

Aggressive warm up on it’s way

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You don’t need me to tell you that it has been an awfully chilly week. Is this spurred by a rough Valentine’s Day weekend? Probably not, but I can say that as we get away from that holiday, temperatures are rebounding in a fairly significant way.

After successive rounds of low pressure rotated through the US east of the Rockies, high pressure is building in, and it is going to try to stick for a little while. The upper level pattern isn’t terribly conducive to warm weather, but the time of year and amount of sunlight we are seeing, as well as a west wind off the Rockies, with a little bit of southerly flow through the Mississippi Valley is going to do a lot of the heavy lifting. It’s already started.

The above image from the WPC shows how much warmer it is already for parts of the Plains and lower great Lakes as compared to yesterday. And it will continue to get warmer further east today and into the weekend.

With high pressure in place, the jet is going to split over the weekend, with a ridge developing in a northerly jet, and a trough continuing to remain in place over the south central US. This will allow the warm up to remain in place, even as rain starts to move in to some of the Plains and western Gulf states. Then, it’s March.

We aren’t expecting any significantly abnormal temperatures in either direction to begin the month, but a normal day in March feels a heck of a lot better than a below normal day in February.

Coming Soon…

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Spring is on its way, and we can start to prepare for some warmer weather. To ensure we get good weather for our forecast, we have two scheduled forecasts in the coming days in southern California.

San Luis Obispo, California
Road trip from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania to San Luis Obispo

Poughkeepsie, New York
Road Trip from Hinesville, Georgia to Poughkeepsie

St. Joseph, Missouri

Hanford, California

Columbus, Indiana

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We’re taking a look at one of the three Columbuses we have in our system, and the only one that I’ve had the pleasure of passing through in person.

At 245PM, ET, Columbus was reporting a temperature of 19 degrees with clear skies and a steady west wind. High pressure was building into the area, however a weak wave riding the forward edge of this ridge brought a few flakes to the region through the overnight, and the accumulated inch or so may be helping keep temperatures a degree or two cooler.
High pressure is going to remain in place for the next couple of days, building in from the west. While there is a weak thermal trough embedded in this ridge, it won’t be enough to slow down the warm up coming for Columbus this weekend. Expect a fairly pleasant weekend with sunny skies.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 32, Low 10
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 34, Low 17

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. Very cold High 32, Low 10
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 36, Low 14

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, but cold; a warmup is on the way High 33, Low 8
Saturday – Chilly with periods of clouds and sunshine High 38, Low 16

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 32, Low 9
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 35, Low 15

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, not as cold, High 26, Low 11
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing, High 33, Low 16

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 31, Low 8
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 34, Low 16

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 30, Low 9
Saturday – Sunny, High 35, Low 11

The Weather Channel says it’s going to be “very cold” tomorrow, while Weatherbug, with a cooler forecast, says “not as cold.” Perspective! Satellite shows some lingering clouds, and some lingering snow on the ground.

Sandusky, Ohio

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The Great Lakes during a cold stretch in February, in the midst of some breezy conditions in the region. I have a pretty good guess on how things are going.

At 1053AM, ET, the Sandusky area was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 16 degrees. There were a few flurries throughout the region, thanks to lingering westerly winds. Another gnarly storm system is bringing heavy rain to the southeastern US. This is adding some moisture to the region, but by tonight, will inhibit flow into a trough moving into the region.
The trough is weak, and riding the front edge of a strong ridge in the center of the country. It will bring a few flurries to Sandusky overnight and into the early morning tomorrow. The wind in the area may lead to some lake effect flurries that last into the early afternoon, but high pressure will squash the moisture out of the region by Friday. Expect sunny skies as the weekend rolls in.
Tomorrow – A few flurries, perhaps accumulating to an inch, wrapping up in the afternoon. High 24, Low 13
Friday – Clearing and a bit warmer, High 27, Low 15

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with snow showers mainly during the morning High 22, low 14
Friday – Cloudy. Very cold. High 27, Low 15

AW: Tomorrow – Very cold with snow and flurries at times, accumulating a coating to an inch, becoming breezy in the afternoon; roads could be slippery for the morning commute High 21, Low 13
Friday – Quite cold with low clouds; a warmup is on the way High 26, Low 15

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow showers, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, High 22, low 14
Friday – Partly sunny High 27, Low 12

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A chance of snow showers mainly in the morning. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch possible. High 20, Low 15
Friday – Partly sunny, High 24, low 18

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with snow showers, High 22, Low 14
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 27, Low 13

CLI: Tomorrow – Heavy snow showers, High 21, Low 13
Friday – Overcast, High 26, Low 14

Given that it was -11 here this morning, the third double digit below zero morning in a row, it’s funny to see multiple outlets refer to the mid 20s as “cold”, needing to call it out like that. The radar shows an impressive amount of coverage, but it won’t add much in terms of accumulation.

Updates 2/17

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1120AM: We are now fully “in the wake of” a particularly nasty February storm, which rendered severe weather across the southeast, with tornados and wind running from the Lower Mississippi Valley east through the Carolinas and Georgia. These storms are often the loudest, of course, but as always, the deadliest storms are the flash floods, which occurred in Kentucky, south of Louisville. It’s a bit further west than the catastrophic storms of a couple of years ago, but the story remains the same: heavy rain in an area with undulating terrain. Appalachian has really been through the ringer in the last few years. Now, behind this storm, a bracing cold has settled in, which is allowing for some flurries in the north, and unpleasant recovery operations in the Tennessee Valley.