Unrelenting flurries

Snow was reported sporadically for the first 36 hours of the forecast period in Utica. The grand total accumulation was about 2 hundredths of an inch of precipitation, which is probably less than half an inch of true accumulation. Downwind of the Great Lakes, that practically qualifies as a no snow day. Temperatures were a challenge, cooling more than expected on Saturday. Ultimately, Victoria-Weather continued our winning streak.
Actuals: Friday, Snow reported, not measured. High 28, Low 21
Saturday – .02 inches of snow, High 28, Low 7

Grade:

Ocean City, New Jersey

Ocean City is in the southern part of the state of New Jersey, not far from Atlantic City. Sheesh, Ocean City, Atlantic City…. we get it, New Jersey, you are on an ocean.

At 854PM, ET, Ocean City was seeing a temperature of 29 degrees with clear skies. High pressure lay over the east coast, but the broad, nearly immobile trough over the country at the beginning of the month is no longer, replaced with a fast moving perturbation sliding presently across the Great Lakes. was expected to arrive on the east coast as early as tomorrow morning.
The line between rain and snow will be razor thin, but the southern Jersey Shore should be safe from snowfall, but heavy rain, perhaps embellished with a thunderstorm will move quickly through the Garden State. Clear skies will return on Monday evening, followed by a pleasant day on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Rain, some thunder early, then clearing. High 45, Low 22
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain likely, High 45, Low 30
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. High 46, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with periods of rain from late morning on High 44, Low 33
Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine; breezy in the afternoon High 45, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of rain and snow before 9am, then rain High 43, Low 29
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 45, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Rain, High 44, Low 28
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 48, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a light wintry mix High 43, Low 28
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 45, Low 33

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the morning. High 45 Low 31
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 47, Low 32

Pretty unanimous across the board for this forecast, though several outlets are calling for some of the precipitation to mix. We’ll see!

The last gasp of a cold spell

When we put together our forecast for Dubuque, they were at the tail end of their extended inhabitance of a February cold spell for the record books. Wednesday dipped down all the way to -13, but the Thursday low was a relatively mild 2 above, a difference of 15 degrees. Not bad! The biggest issue with the forecast was a tendril of light snow that moved through the Mississippi Valley. It came about 12 hours later than expected, which meant that everyone missed on the precipitation forecast, even the select few who actually through it might snow. Victoria-Weather was better than the rest on temperatures, and won the forecast with ease.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 12, Low -13
Thursday- Trace of precipitation, High 18, Low 2

Grade: C-D

Hattiesburg hears thunder

While the catastrophe in Texas has garnered many of the headlines this week, the disaster was more widespread than that. From cold weather throughout the Plains to snow and ice nearly everywhere west of the Appalachians, many people suffered loss, disruption and discomfort. In Hattiesburg, temperatures were significantly colder than normal, but at least late in the week, precipitation was all rain. There were even some rumbles of thunder on Wednesday night as the second feature of the weeklong event passed to the north. Ice was a huge problem to the north of Hattiesburg, and even with over an inch of rains, and temperatures in the 20s, before the precipitation rolled in, you might even say they were lucky. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – .93 inches of rain, High 42, Low 20
Thursday – .24 inches of rain, High 43, Low 32

Grade: B-C

Coming soon…

We’re moving a little bit more quickly around here, aren’t we? It’s kind of fun. We have a busy week ahead, too, so lets hope I can maintain this pace.

Road trip from Ocean City, New Jersey to Lubbock, Texas

Cumberland, Maryland
Road Trip from Lubbock to Cumberland

Topeka, Kansas
Road Trip from Rapid City, South Dakota to Topeka

Colorado Springs, Colorado

Sacramento, California

Gulfport, Mississippi

You know all those times where I said that forecasts would soon be coming more quickly? Well, we are now at those times. Another forecast, and another for southern Mississippi.

AT 953PM, CT, Gulfport was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with overcast skies. North winds continued to bring cold air to the region, behind a cold front that lay between Pensacola and Tallahassee. Sub freezing temperatures continued to the north, where ice, snow and cold have drastically impacted basic utilities.
The jet trough is restructuring the surface area of low pressure. Presently, there is an elongated surface trough, which is producing the rain and snow seen up and down the coast, but the base of the jet trough will interact with the low pressure channel along the Gulf Stream through the day tomorrow. As a more organization comes to the surface feature, low level moisture and clouds will pull away from Gulfport. It may not be warm, but Friday afternoon and Saturday will at least have sunshine.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy early, then clearing, High 52, Low 35
Saturday – Sunny, feeling warmer, High 58, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 51, Low 32
Saturday – A mainly sunny sky High 55, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cold High 50, Low 32
Saturday – Plenty of sunshine, but cool High 56, Low 28

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing High 49, Low 31
Saturday – Sunny, High 56, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 49, Low 33
Saturday – Sunny, High 56, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 49, Low 32
Saturday – Sunny, High 55, Low 29

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day High 51, Low 33
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 56, Low 30

I am a little more optimistic for a warm up. Full sun in southern Mississippi should at least get a little closer to 60, right? The cool, moisture rich air of the southeast is leading to a lot of clouds tonight.

Utica, New York

It’s been a big weather week in the southern US, and all that activity is moving the north-northeast. At least Utica is accustomed to big snow, in case that is what is on the way.

At 153PM, ET, Utica was reporting a temperature of 25 degrees with overcast skies. The low pressure that has been bringing so much pain and heart break to the southern US has shifted predominantly off shore, but an inverted trough is pointed through New Jersey towards Binghamton. Light snow was falling across the Poconos and was headed towards Utica.
Snow will continue in the area as low pressure becomes distended perpendicularly across the Gulf Stream. The cold front will stall, and so too will the inverted trough across New York. Light snow showers are going to continue in Utica at least through the day tomorrow as reorganization begins in the southeastern US. Troughing will be tilted aloft, which will be conducive to further cyclogenesis. The reborn feature will get stronger tomorrow night into Saturday morning. The feature will shift into the North Atlantic and drag wet weather along with it. Late Saturday will be cool but dry.
Tomorrow – Snow likely all day, High 30, Low 19
Saturday – Some early snow, then clearing and cold, High 26, Low 17

TWC: Tomorrow – Variable clouds with snow showers High 32, Low 21
Saturday – Overcast. A few flurries or snow showers possible. High 27, Low 19

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of snow, accumulating 1-3 inches; storm total snowfall 3-6 inches High 33, Low 24
Saturday – Remaining cloudy and breezy with a couple of flurries High 30, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Periods of snow, mainly before 1pm, then scattered snow showers after 2pm High 32, Low 20
Saturday – A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy High 27, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Snow. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. High 32, Low 22
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. High 28, Low 22

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light snow likely, High 32, Low 20
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with chance of light snow showers, High 27, Low 18

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy throughout the day. High 35, Low 22
Saturday – Foggy overnight and in the morning. High 28, Low 18

It’s going to be a smattering of snow across the region, which will last for quite a while, and thankfully not a big storm like they saw in the south, or really like they can see with a lake effect feature. Here is the radar right now, with a lot of coverage, but not much heavy precipitation.

Is relief in sight?

Snow is inconvenient, challenging and dangerous, while the ice being seen from Mississippi to New Jersey is destructive, but the enduring cold is proving the most difficult and costly disaster, particularly in Texas. Power grids are failing thanks to a lack of winterization amid a cold snap that is breaking record books across the Plains (for example, Oklahoma City saw the coldest temperature recorded since before Oklahoma was even a state).

As you can see with the first image, the cold spell will alleviate over the course of the next week. With this particular situation with people freezing in their homes, it’s important to get a little more clarity. It’s nice to know that things will be more comfortable next week, but we still need to get to next week.

Cold weather, though not record breaking, will continue through the day tomorrow before things begin to really alleviate. Temperatures on Friday will remain cold, but temperatures in the afternoon from Oklahoma to Arkansas and southward will start to pop into the 40s, slowed somewhat by all the snow that has fallen.

Temperatures will hit the 50s around Abilene, and the 40s over the Metroplex on Saturday, with above freezing temperatures reaching into Iowa on Sunday. By early next week, 60s will be widespread, with a forecast in the mid 80s for Abilene by next Thursday.

Relief is on its way, and with spring coming up, it seems unlikely that we will revert back to another icy blast again. At least, not this winter.

Dubuque, Iowa

We’re headed to the northern US tonight to see what catastrophe is happing up there. Catastrophes everywhere.

At 1153PM, ET, Dubuque was reporting clear skies and a temperature of -8. Dubuque was smack dab within the upper level trough responsible for the wild weather in the south, and the cold weather in the Plains. A feature tolling along the base of the trough is going to trigger change across the nation.
An inverted rough will be directed to the north from the advancing low in the Lower Mississippi Valley, and will pass over eastern Iowa through the day Wednesday. There won’t be a lot of moisture available to this disturbance, but with temperatures as cold as they are, big, dendritic flurries are more than possible. As the feature propagates, it will elongate, and circulation will become distorted. With less northerly flow, Thursday looks to be the first day of a true warming trajectory.
Tomorrow – Flurries, High 12, Low -10
Thursday – Warmer and partly cloudy, High 17, Low 2

TWC: Tomorrow- Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon High 17, Low -9
Thursday – Partly cloudy skies. High 22, Low 1

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then turning cloudy and cold; a little snow this afternoon with little or no accumulation High 15, Low -5
Thursday – Cold with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 21, Low 2

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am High 14, Low -12
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 21, Low 3

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A 40 percent chance of light snow in the afternoon, High 13, Low -6
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 18, Low 2

WN: Mostly cloudy, High 14, Low -12
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 21, Low 3

FIO: Tomorrow -Overcast throughout the day. High 17, Low -11
Thursday – Foggy until morning, starting again in the evening. High 23, Low 4

Clear night in Dubuque. Brr. But at least good news is on the way.

Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Hattiesburg is among the many, many cities nation wide that is experiencing cold that they are wholly unaccustomed to. Particularly in the southern United States, record cold on top of a huge winter storm is working to exasperate the situation. Lets see if there is any hope for improvement for these next couple days.

At 653PM, CT, Hattiesburg was reporting cloud skies and a temperature of 23 degrees. The deep, strong, broad trough across the country is still holding firm to it’s place over the Plains. Another round of snow and ice is currently falling over the Red River Valley, getting ready to shift into a more moisture rich environment to the east.
The wet weather will arrive in Mississippi towards afternoon tomorrow. The freezing line right now looks to slice just to the north of town, while enough warm air is expected to be drawn north to keep Hattiesburg in the rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, though an ice storm is anticipated across the rest of Mississippi. The wavelength of the jet trough will contract after the storm has pushed to the east, and cold air will be able to dig south, leading to a chilly end of the week in Hattiesburg, but with the promise of some warmth soon after.
Tomorrow – Rain, sometimes heavy and embedded with thunder late in the day. High 46, Low 20
Thursday – Rain early, then clearing and chilly, High 45, Low 33

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming cloudy with periods of rain later in the day. High 46, Low 21
Thursday – Showers in the morning, then cloudy in the afternoon. High 44, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cold; a passing shower in the afternoon High 47, Low 19
Thursday – Occasional rain and drizzle in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy and cold High 42, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, High 44, Low 23
Thursday – Rain and thunderstorms likely before 1pm, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, High 47, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely, and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 45, Low 20
Thursday – Light rain and thunderstorms likely in the morning then a chance of light rain in the afternoon. Cloudy. High 42, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 44, Low 23
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 47, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until night, starting again in the afternoon, High 46, Low 24
Thursday – Rain overnight and in the morning, High 49, Low 32

I’m not so sure about the threat for thunder. The system has a lot of juice, but I’m not sure there is enough instability in the region. Still, there is going to be a healthy dousing of rain, perhaps over a half inch. If that all freezes on contact to the north, it could be a scary situation from Jackson north towards Memphis and Tupelo. This is a big time system. Here is the next round of wet weather on satellite over the Red River Valley.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 14 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M6C14_G16_s20210480131035_e20210480133407_c20210480133535.nc