A lot of the attention for the week, including on this site, has revolved around the eclipse and whether or not we will be able to view it, even if we are in the axis of totality. The story for the rest of the week will follow a lot of the same territory, but will instead surround the threat for tornadoes and other severe weather.

A sharp upper level trough is moved into the Plains yesterday and isn’t really related to the inclement weather obscuring the sky during the eclipse. As it moved in, surface low pressure attempted to organize in west Texas that afternoon and evening. While access to moisture was be limited, access to potential energy was not.

In a scenario like this, you might see some “LP” or Low Precipitation supercells, which are the type that produce the photogenic tornadoes moving through open fields that you see in textbooks. The feature didn’t have enough tight circulation to introduce a bunch of tornadoes, but the updrafts were there, and even without much rain falling, we saw some jumbo sized hail.

It will be more of the same today, but with the bullseye shifted to east Texas and western Louisiana. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes, though perhaps not gigantic twisters, will increase in this area as the low gets more focused and better moisture. We can see with the SPC activity loop that there are a couple of watches out already, and the threat for severe weather today is increasing

This negative trend will continue through the heart of Dixie Alley on Wednesday, with tornadoes and strong winds possible through Mississippi, and again on Thursday in Alabama, Georgia and north Florida. Especially by tomorrow, the ingredients will be perfectly meshed for a potentially high end severe weather event. There is a chance to see a major tornado outbreak in the moderate risk region for severe weather outlook, which include Baton Rouge, Jackson and the parts of Dixie Alley that are far too accustomed to this kind of weather.

One thing that we know for sure about next week, is that for a long track of the eastern US, the moon will obfuscate the sun in the mid-afternoon. The eclipse is happening, and we’ve long known where the eclipse was happening.

Every forecast you see usually comes with a couple of words spared for the level of overcast on a given day. There is almost no brainpower expended on this process for most meteorologists that I know. Essentially, my go to method is to determine flow if you are near the sea, and proximity to an area of inclement weather. It works out well enough, and is frankly not something that many people follow up on.

So with that in mind, just know that I and most other weather people are flexing a muscle that we don’t often exercise when discussing the potential visibility of the celestial event of the year. I can state with some more knowledge that there will be an area of low pressure over the Upper Midwest that is quite occluded. At the time of the eclipse, the secondary low will be over the eastern Great Lakes, and the boundary will be along a line roughly from Pittsburgh to Houston.

Along that line, in particular, expect some clouds, and it will probably be a little dicey south of that boundary with moisture spilling into the region. The low over the Great Lakes, as well, will likely be more cloudy than not. Of course, this coincides with the axis of greatest coverage for the eclipse, which is a bummer for something so anticipated.

If you travel to Texas for the eclipse, you can still see some natural phenomenon in the evening. The next round of unstable weather will touch off some severe storms in west Texas, targeting the Wichita Falls area on Monday evening, with tornadoes a concern, along with large hail. I can confirm that these thunderstorms will completely obscure the sun.