from Victoria-Weather
7:15: Heat will absolutely be building into the middle of the country this week. Wichita’s WFO isn’t scared though. They have a wedge on the map without a heat advisory in place
More accurately, it’s late August, and most folks in southern Kansas are pretty well acclimated to warm weather.
4:54PM: Do you remember going back to school, and it was still warm and wonderful out all day? Well, your kids will get to learn those hard lessons too, if they live in the middle of the country.
6:37: The smattering of showers that were expected in the northern Plains were fairly significant this morning, but the evening wet weather in the western Great Lakes is sparse. Just a lazy, late August weekend.
This is going to be a three day, south to north adventure. We’ll be covering a stretch of 1533 miles, which, at a pace of 68.8mph, we will scream northward. That will be 550.7 miles a day, with a shade shorter day to conclude the trip. Here we go.
DAY ONE (Friday)
We have a broad, relatively weak area of low pressure in the Great Lakes, which is producing a similarly weak cold front sweeping from New England, through the Carolinas and west through the Gulf and into South Texas. There is going to be a smattering of showers between Brownsville and San Antonio, but north of the boundary, it will be clear and calm. We’ll make it to the Oklahoma border and stop in Thackerville for the night.
DAY TWO (Saturday)
The clear conditions will continue through Oklahoma and Kansas. The next wave will be coming into the Front Range, with a warm front across the northern tier of states. Like I said, clear conditions continue through our route, but it will be hot and humid on the way to Bonner Springs, on the outside of Kansas City, Kansas.
DAY THREE (Sunday)
The warm front will be lingering across the Upper Midwest, which may lead to a bit of shower or thunderstorm east of Des Moines. It won’t be a washout, and it is more likely to be pleasant in the Driftless area of southeast Wisconsin.
It was very warm in Jonesboro when we put together the local forecast. Temperatures were at or near the century mark both on the 12th and 13th, our forecast verification dates. Not only that, but 6/7 forecasters were able to keep their forecast to within 5 degrees of total error on the highs and lows for both days. The weather, and the forecasters were hot. Accuweather and Clime, even with these solid numbers, were able to separate themselves, and earned victory in northeast Arkansas.
Actuals: August 12th, High 99, Low 77
August 13th, High 100, Low 78
Grade: A
9:09AM: In a sign that the seasons are changing, the SPC outlook day over day is showing that risk areas are transitioning west to east over the course of the next few days. That is indicative of a wave pattern actually shifting, rather than a summertime, stagnant pattern, simply parked in the middle of the country. Congrats to those of you who enjoy fall. It’s coming!
2:00PM: We have the first enhanced risk I’ve seen in a while. It’s for the Texas Panhandle, and of the highest surprise, it is for hail and wind, and there isn’t even a 2% bound area for tornadoes.
6:14PM: We had a pretty rainy weekend and beginning to the week, but can we live with this, Baltimore?
1:23PM:
You know what I don’t see in this forecast from Key West? Anything unusual. In fact, it is eerily quiet in the Atlantic basin here in late August.
1:06PM: The SPC is definitely promising an outlook that is very late summer. There are slight risk blobs coving vast tracts of the northern Rockies and Northern High Plains. There is also a marginal risk across New York. I can confidently say that I expect more severe reports from New York.
10:03PM All right, i was wrong! Storms in New York never materialized, and as always, the storms in the Plains were big hail producers. Probably for the best that there weren’t too many reports in New York, as that would have affected far more people.
10:36PM This incorrect prediction is staying with me tonight. I just want to remind everyone (and myself) that Victoria-Weather has been the best forecaster through the summer so far.
I’m overdue on these verifications, so here are the top outfits from June and July. You may get the first one right, if you were to guess, since you are here, at Victoria-Weather.com. It was indeed us. In July, an unlikely champion emerged. WeatherNation was the top forecaster for the second month of summer. Congrats!
| Outlet | Forecast Wins (year) |
| The Weather Channel | 4.5 |
| Accuweather | 3.66 |
| WeatherNation | 3.66 |
| Victoria-Weather | 3.33 |
| National Weather Service | 2.83 |
| Clime | 2.66 |
| Weatherbug | 0.33 |
A couple of stops in the next several days in New York, with our first down wind of the Great Lakes. I don’t anticipate Lake effect snow this time around.
At 654PM, ET, Syracuse was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 74 degrees. Dew points are also pleasantly situated in the 50s as high pressure has built into the mid-Atlantic. Eyes will be toward the Great Lakes, however, as a cold front moving through Michigan and Wisconsin, bringing showers and storms that are headed for Chicago.
The cold front is tied to an area of low pressure over Hudson Bay, and affiliated with a deep and seasonably strong trough in the Great Lakes The boundary will drift eastward, losing some punch as it moves into dry, stable air over the mid-Atlantic. There will still be a few showers in the area tomorrow afternoon, though not terribly strong. The boundary will shift out of the region for Thursday, with sunnier and even cooler conditions to round out the week.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, a splash of afternoon rain, high 80, Low 61
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 58
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 79, Low 61
Thursday – Partly to mostly cloudy High 78, Low 60
AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness with a thunderstorm; gusty winds can accompany any downpour, High 79, Low 59
Thursday – Partly sunny and nice High 78, Low 60
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Partly sunny, High 81, low 61
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 80, Low 64
Thursday – Partly sunny. High 78, Low 62
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light showers and a chance of storms, High 81, Low 61
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 59
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 79, Low 61
Thursday – Sunny, High 79, Low 58
Something will indeed be coming out of the Lakes, but it won’t be snow. Not yet. Satellite shows those clouds coming Syracuse’s way.
