from Victoria-Weather
12:05AM: A full week into April now, and we are definitely in severe season. If it were a busier pattern. Instead, the concern is going to be fire in the Plains.
6:23PM: The concern for fire in the Plains is shifting a bit further north. Here is the outlook from NWS North Platte.
1:50PM: The map is pretty quiet today. The closest thing to action is this area, being watched by the SPC in Florida. The area could use the rain, so as long as the activity isn’t severe, this might qualify as good news.
7:10PM Happy Easter! One thing to appreciate on this day is that, despite fires developing in California, they have been well contained and remain small. We forecast for Visalia last night, and today, west of town, this little fire, the Lake fire popped up.Not a major concern, but worth noting.
9:11PM High pressure and a slow moving pattern is the story in the west. The forecast from Denver tells the story.
Our string of visits to California continues with a late visit to the central Valley.
At 956PM, PT, Visalia was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with clear skies. Dew points are in the 40s through the Valley, and even higher to the north, suggesting a chance for fog in the morning. The higher dew points and cooler evening temperatures are a result of very pleasant early April temperatures.
There is a jet streak running along the Mexican border that is bearing the load of keeping the oppressive heat at bay, while a strong ridge through the Pacific Northwest ensures that California will enjoy continued sunny skies from Easter into the beginning of the work week.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 51
Monday – Sunny, a bit of haze in the morning, High 85, Low 52
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds High 89, Low 49
Monday – Partly cloudy skies. High 87, Low 54
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and very warm with the temperature approaching the record high of 90 set in 1960 High 87, Low 48
Monday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 87, Low 52
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 86, Low 51
Monday – Sunny High 86, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 87, Low 53
Monday – Sunny High 86, Low 57
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 86, Low 52
Monday – Mostly Sunny, High 86, Low 54
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 49
Monday – Sunny, High 86, Low 52
Mid 80s compared to what had been seen recently out west does seem pretty manageable, despite, as Accuweather noted, these highs being close to records. There are some clouds in the Sierras, but a clear night elsewehre.
11:32PM: Today is the beginning of April. Broadly, what are we thinking? Well, warm, too be sure, but less than oppressive. The CPC has the outlook:
Precipitation shows a threat for above average rain particularly in the mid-Mississippi Valley.
12:30AM: Cold Front!
10:34PM: The SPC does have a hatched area on this evening’s outlook. Here is the hail forecast for you to see the new graphics in action.
Take a look at the hail forecast from the SPC, issued for Monday. There is a swath of the Great Lakes that will see a threat for hail tomorrow.
There are two things to call out, design wise. First, perhaps most obviously, the color scale has changed to a creamier tone. The scale is distinctive, and particularly well defined on the general severe weather outlook. It’s easier on the eyes.
The other addition is in the bottom right corner. The individual hazards have always had a probability scale, but now, there is also an intensity scale for for every type of severe weather. There is no intense hail coming tomorrow, and in fact, it is just a marginal risk for severe weather overall. Better believe I’ll feature an outlook later this summer with forecasts for intense severe weather. You can look ahead though, these new maps are live already.
I wondered how often this would happen. With our first forecast in Madera, the best forecast belonged to… the consensus. The actual individual scores were all very close, with a high in the mid 80s on the 21st, and a cooler day with fresher air on the 22nd. Individually, The Weather Channel and Clime tied ahead of essentially everyone else, but were just a hair behind what you would have got if you averaged everyone out.
Actuals: 3/21: High 86, Low 63
3/22: High 84, Low 52
Grade: B
It’s been a while since we have taken a road trip, and today’s journey takes us from a town that is host to Iowa State University, a school that is playing in tonight’s Sweet 16 basketball game. If you aren’t a basketball fan, then Farmington, in the 4 Corners area, is a scenic spring drive away. It will take two days and 1052 miles to cover the ground. The first day will cover less mileage, but the pace will be just shy of 63mph, and give us a daily target of 503 miles for the end of the day. The weekend approaches, and with that, perhaps, spring break.
DAY ONE (Saturday)
Boy, that map, with the thousand miles of roadway, but no coast on any portion of it is very unsettling for some reason. Let’s get moving and stop thinking about it! Speaking of dry (oops, guess I didn’t stop thinking about it), high pressure, chilly for late spring, has descended into the northern Plains. This should keep things dry, and hopefully calm as well. We’ll get off the freeway in Kearney, Nebraska and head southwest into Kansas. Temperatures will jump around then, but so too will the southerly winds. It may be breezy, and it will certainly be dusty, but it will also be around 80 as we pull into Rexford, in northwest Kansas, and before we pass I-70.
DAY TWO (Sunday)
Low pressure moving out of Wyoming often sounds like a problem, but on this journey, not particularly. The warm front we cross on Saturday is stemming from a low moving out of Wyoming, and it is going to be bringing warmer air north, but out of the Southwest, and not inflow from the Gulf. Those dusty winds we contended with on Saturday night will probably be a part of our entire western Kansas experience between Saturday evening and Sunday morning. Temperatures will continue to be pleasant on the right side of the boundary, with highs in the low 80s. The winds will taper as we approach Walsenburg, Colorado, and really taper off for the rest of our mountain drive into Farmington. It’s a good weekend to hit the road.
