1:50PM: These are all suns, northern Michigan, not little snowflakes
4:49PM The wave of chilly air is getting pushed out of the country with a ridge building back into the center of the country. One last night of frost and freeze advisories, this time centered in Ohio and the surrounding areas. It’ll be warmer for a bit after that.
9:40PM It’s very quiet night across the country tonight. There is a churning area of low pressure in the Atlantic, but it looks meaner than it is. It’s going to hang out approximately where its currently at for the next couple of days, effectively keeping the east coast dry, as moisture cycles back into the low.
11:24PM: The coming cold front for Tallahassee is indeed producing a band of showers off the coast of Destin into the Gulf, but nothing on shore. Victoria-Weather had rain in the forecast, but it’s looking to stay offshore. Good news, Tallahassee!
11:58PM: Maaaaaybe a little something in Panama City, now?
2:59PM: It was busy for a minute, but the tropics are once again quiet. Right now, most outlets are beginning to worry about autumnal, if not early winter type events. If not, it’s because they are sharing the El Nino climatology, which insists on warmer temperatures in the northeast US this winter.
Fall storm systems are just dreary. Cold and rainy, without the strong thunderstorms or stacking of snow. Just unpleasant. Sorry that this is coming.
8:30PM
Flooding rains to the east, thanks to Isaias, the pending rain storm to the north this weekend, and yet, Arkansas is going to be looking at a fire risk over the next couple of days. The weather, at times, is on a razor’s edge.
9:25PM: This is the kind of storm that rolls in right at bed time on a school night. I don’t see any storm reports yet, despite the move through the Kansas City metro, so let’s hope the only impact is drowsy elementary schoolers tomorrow morning.
9:34PM: Isaias came and went. Two deaths were attributed to his wrath, but a Category 2 hurricane is otherwise light work for local residents. He’s going to continue to harangue the East Coast for a couple of days, and will probably get his name retired, even though it’s not going to go down as a storm that everyone remembers.
1059PM: Obviously Isaias was the big show in town this weekend, but we should also take note of the potential for flash flooding almost immediately thereafter in the Las Vegas area.
12:21AM: Late night update, but Isaias is presently a major hurricane. He will begin to wane as he approaches the coast through the day Friday, but surge, rain and a few tornadoes are going to be expected in southern Alabama, southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle this weekend.
1:31PM: For those who missed it, we finally have our first hurricane of the year. Isaias is officially a hurricane in the Gulf, headed for landfall around Mobile and Pensacola if current guidance holds.
10:33AM: Isaias has formed in the Gulf, and you can see the wind barbs drawing towards and around the center of his circulation off the Mexican coast. There are ample showers and storms tied to a slow moving boundary in the Florida Peninsula, and the air is dry along the Gulf Coast. That said, the storm is in very rich air, and now appears primed to develop into the year’s first hurricane. Steering flow will keep him over the Gulf, getting stronger, for a couple of days. Right now the guidance has him making landfall around Pensacola. If it misses, I will guess it goes further to the east, towards Panama City. Still a lot of the week left to go, with a projected land fall coming late Friday.
11:41AM: The rain currently in Florida shouldn’t be discounted. It has brought historic rain to the northern part of the state over the beginning of October, and is related to several perturbations along the coast. Jacksonville isn’t far from where Isaias will end up, and they don’t even touch on it in their daily highlights.
12:08PM Guidance right now pretty consistently calls for at least a Cat 1 storm out of Isaias. Thi is a strange year, but I’ve learned recently that storm intensity isn’t often anticipated well. Don’t be surprised if he ultimately caps as a Cat 2 or even low grade Cat 3.
10:13PM: After ending September with tons and tons of rain, it has now been pretty warm in Minnesota this week. My lawn hasn’t looked this good all summer.
