I know Alaska is the furthest north of all of our 50 US states, so one would imagine that it is usually also the coldest of our 50 states. So what is so unusual, warranting this quick update? Alaska is the only spot for essentially the rest of the month that the CPC has tagged as “below normal” for their temperature outlook.

We have reached the most doldrum-y day of summer. Friday July 5th is a vacation day for a lot of people, and it is a pause for a lot of the national outlets as well (except for the NHC). It is going to be storming for a good part of the country, but strong activity should be few and far betwen.

It will continue like this for a few days, but Sunday, be on the lookout for Hurricane Beryl to landfall along the Mexican Border near Brownsville. The days of Cat-5 Beryl are long past, so perhaps many North Americans can focus on the Caribbean as it rebounds from the storm’s impact.

There was an enhanced risk for severe weather in southeast Iowa today, and sure enough, there were a couple of tornado reports near Iowa City, but aside from one cell, it was pretty quiet in the Hawkeye State. Further south, storms were more widespread, and there were several straight line wind reports in northwest Missouri. Fortunately, as the evening winds down, it is looking much quieter for residents of Missouri, with one severe line still roiling east of Kansas City.

You may be think I am talking about hurricane season, but nowadays, that begins in late May. Hurricane Beryl isn’t something that starts right at the beginning of the season — the beginning of the season is now earlier than it used to be.

No, I’m talking about something else: Monsoon season. We know it is here when we start getting WPC discussions that include the Gadsden Purchase.

Rain has been a destructive force for the Upper Midwest this early summer season. The heavy rain has swamped a particular swath from the Sioux City area to the high profile overwhelming of the Rapidan dam in southern Minnesota. There is more rain on the way in what should be another busy week, but this time, it is shifted about half a state to the east.

This kind of rain isn’t going to help anything, as much of the precipitation will be flowing towards those same, overwhelmed locations. For good measure, more rain is coming for southwest Florida as well, a place that flooded earlier this year.

Quite literally, when it rains, it pours.

Heat is building into the west, while severe weather has shifted off the east coast, which is bringing us to a bit more of a stable pattern. There are broad swaths of “slight risk” on the SPC outlook page, but that is what we expect this time of year. Big thunderstorms can crop up because of the dry line, but the good news is, the population is pretty sparse, so it doesn’t end up being too terribly injurious.

Enjoy this while we get into June, at least until the heat gets to be TOO much.

Even the most enthusiastic chasers aren’t happy chasing in metro areas. They are out for the thrill, the science and in the interest of public safety. The stories of devastation from Iowa, Nebraska, Arkansas, Texas and Kentucky over the last few weeks sicken chasers perhaps more than the average weather watcher.

Even if there wasn’t the element for human tragedy because of severe weather, populated areas are difficult to navigate because of the traffic, and are often more treed and have taller buildings, so it’s difficult to see what chasers are trying to see.

Basically, a cell by itself, in rural west Texas is pretty much the delight of storm chasers, and not far from Amarillo, which is a popular steak spot for many chasers I know.

Another day, another big red mark on the forecast outlook. This time, it is for Saturday, and includes Oklahoma City and Kansas City. Low pressure emerging out of the Colorado Plains is going to start churning, making a tornado outbreak an unfortunately real possibility. After what has been a tough year to start, this is not how we wanted to kick off summer.

There are already watches out, covering the entirety of Iowa, some of it in a “Particularly Dangerous Situation” designated tornado watch that butts into parts of Minnesota and Illinois. There are already strong storms appearing on the map, having initiated in eastern Nebraska, with the Omaha Metro seeing more tornado warnings earlier today. The storms will rage through Des Moines though the rush hour, and depart Cedar Rapids and the Twin Cities through about 7 or 8 PM. Cedar Rapids projects to get stronger storms, but Minneapolis and St. Paul will get a whole bunch of rain.

A concern I have is that the storms, already forming a bit of a wavy pattern in western Iowa, will transform into a derecho that continues through the night. If that’s the case, then an overnight squall in Chicago or Milwaukee would be possible. The SPC captured the concern with their enhanced risk extending through Lake Michigan. Be aware of the weather in the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight!

There is another enhanced risk for severe weather today, this time ranging from the Texas Panhandle to south central Kansas. Surely, storm chasers are once again going to be out there, probably starting in Amarillo and getting their steak, then tracking east with the storms. For my money, the short term models seems to be favoring development in the late evening in Stillwater and Ponca City, in northern Oklahoma. Were I chaser, that’s where I would go. But I’m not! Good luck if you are.