1:23 AM: I don’t know about you, but I would say it looks like there might be some mountain snow on the way?

10:48PM: It’s going to snow in the Great Lakes in an otherwise tame system. Tame? Tell that to the UP

3:19PM – Low pressure in Eastern Canada is quit occluded, enough so the original low has kicked off a secondary trough breezing through the western Great Lakes. There is a little rain in Minnesota and Iowa, and some strong gusts as well.

7:02PM – The system moving through the country this weekend is evocative of an Alberta Clipper. It starts today in the northern Rockies and will get stronger as it dives southeast, where the best shot for severe storms will crop up on Sunday. And yes, there will probably be some snow, up on the Canadian border and Northern Great Lakes.

8:00PM It’s been storms across a big cross section of the country that have earned a lot of headlines, but one area that hasn’t seen the rain is Florida, and to a degree, the Coastal Plains. Moderately dry conditions are leading to concerns for fires in this area. High winds further west also bring worry about fire and how fast they would spread in the Plains.

1051AM We had a long lead to some severe weather last week, and we are in a similar scenario this week, but unlike last week, the threat is growing ominous the closer we get to the event. Friday and Saturday will offer some strong thunderstorms, starting in the Mississippi Valley on Friday, where there is already a 30% chance of severe weather, which suggests an enhanced or moderate risk is coming in future updates. Pay attention to this one.

130PM I should have noted in the earlier update that the outbreak looks to be multiple days. Saturday has a 30% bullseye over Alabama

2:37PM Only one severe storm ongoing right now, headed for Freeport, Florida. You’ll see it coming…. There is a LOT of lightning

827PM Storms are ongoing in the southeastern United States, but nothing is severe right now. There might not be anything severe until late this week, when storms in the Mississippi Valley could be widespread.

1055PM To tell you how far from significant weather we are tonight, I’ve encountered quite a bit of conversation on the storm at the end of the week. The storms in the Mississippi Valley, yes, but a wintry mix in the northern Plains will be difficult Friday to Saturday. But we’ve got time.

1125pm – The threat for stronger storms has again increased late in the day. A marginal risk was plopped in Texas as a narrow band of thunder cropped up in the middle of the state, drifting north.

There are snow showers and winter weather alerts from Oklahoma to New Mexico, stemming from this very system.

1120AM: We are now fully “in the wake of” a particularly nasty February storm, which rendered severe weather across the southeast, with tornados and wind running from the Lower Mississippi Valley east through the Carolinas and Georgia. These storms are often the loudest, of course, but as always, the deadliest storms are the flash floods, which occurred in Kentucky, south of Louisville. It’s a bit further west than the catastrophic storms of a couple of years ago, but the story remains the same: heavy rain in an area with undulating terrain. Appalachian has really been through the ringer in the last few years. Now, behind this storm, a bracing cold has settled in, which is allowing for some flurries in the north, and unpleasant recovery operations in the Tennessee Valley.

12:05AM Persistent precipitation in the western Rockies is expected through the beginning of the week, despite an area of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest with very little juice to it. That’s why the snowfall forecast map in western Montana looks like this, heavy snow in the peaks.

9:48PM: You can tell it’s Valentine’s Day looking at the NWS alerts and warnings map on the side panel. There are a lot of pinks and purples out there! The good news is, those shades aren’t prominently displayed when you get to the Philadelphia and New York City area. Sure, it’s another winter storm, but at least we aren’t going to see busy hubs waylaid too badly. Still, snow is coming, and it is going to be a sluggish weekend in the Great Lakes.

1:28AM Not only is the cold sweeping into the Northern Rockies this weekend, but the one benefit I would find about living in this part of the world – the outstanding scenery – is going to be snuffed out, at least in western Montana and northern Idaho. An inversion (air stops getting colder for a brief spell as you go up, meaning the air doesn’t rise — it is trapped at the surface) is setting up, leading to fog in the valleys. Dense fog advisories are out throughout the area.

2:08PM – There hasn’t been much good news out west lately, and across the country, precipitation seemed only to fall as snow, even on the Gulf Coast, but this afternoon, we have an actual rain event, and it is in the LA area. Heavy rain is falling in Santa Barbara, with a smattering down by Oxnard. Chances will continue this evening. Let’s hope the drink helps soothe the area.

4:10PM – I was curious, given the snow last week, how quiet the tropics were, worldwide. Answer? Pretty quiet. There is one nettlesome wave in the Indian Ocean, but a Tropical Storm is it’s maximum potential, and it won’t affect interests to anyone, anywhere.