2:11PM: The strong polarization on either coast is beginning to break down. It’s not going away, but the the cold anomaly out west is coming back to normal. Still warmer out east, which means precipitation is going to continue to be robust right in the middle of the country. Fortunately, it is needed in this area.

8:31PM After the snow and rain yesterday, it’s looking like the dry spell is going to be concluding rather quickly. Don’t be surprised to see more rain through the week in the Twin Cities… but not tonight. The precipitation that was in the area is dissipating fairly rapidly.

10:35PM: There is a marginal risk for severe weather along the Texas-New Mexico border, but nothing is really panning out right now. This same pattern will make things a bit more interesting this weekend. More severe weather, just like earlier this week, is expected west of the Mississippi from Iowa to Oklahoma. It’s sure been an interesting final third of 2024.

11:58PM Well, it was no Halloween Blizzard, as it was in 1991, but there was snow in Minnesota today. The bullseye was the northwestern side of the Twin Cities metro, where a couple of inches fell. This is anecdotal, I was coming from North Dakota and got to enjoy a wintry blast on the way back home.

2:36PM There is an enhanced risk for severe weather in the center of the country today, which reflects a slow but substantial move towards more seasonal weather. It was 80 yesterday in Minneapolis, and in the low 40s in Bismarck, for example. It’s slow, but the dynamic is there. When I get around to posting forecasts, they promise to be a little bit more interesting.

9:56PM: Are you sick of politics, but still enjoy binary choices of red and blue? Well does the CPC have you covered! High pressure has been running things in the eastern half of the country, but a deep digging trough is moving in out west. That means the temperature outlook is bifurcated.

Unfortunately, just like America, this divide will lead to conflict. Expect storms in the Plains tomorrow, and probably through the week.

10:45PM – It’s an embarrassment of riches in the Twin Cities. Not only was there rain on Thursday, but next week, there is a really good shot at more rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s an abrupt and welcome end to the dry spell.

12:12 Look at this scattershot radar imagery. If you didn’t know any better, you would almost guess that these are snow showers. Pretty sure they aren’t though.

8:05PM: Hey, Montana, knock it off! I’m not ready yet

9:42PM: I know I keep harping on this pending cooldown, but truly, there are freeze warnings as far south as northern Oklahoma tonight. There are even a couple of counties in the Texas Panhandle that have a freeze warning. Stay warm out there!

1:11AM. I don’t know why, the phrasing struck me as funny.

ARKANSAS WEATHER HISTORY—On this day, in 1886, the remnants of a tropical system moved across Arkansas. The tropical system only amounted to rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches. However, the impressive thing about this #arwxhistory post are observations from 138 years ago. #arwx pic.twitter.com/ihmZThBUZm

— NWS Little Rock (@NWSLittleRock) October 13, 2024

235PM The models have been particularly good with many of our hurricanes this year, so even though it is very quiet, with just one tropical wave being monitored in the Atlantic, I thought I would look ahead. The GFS, at least, does foresee that wave becoming a feature that will eventually trouble the Greater Antilles.

By next weekend, the potential storm looks like it will be arriving around Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Deeper into fantasy land, it is expected to double back over the D.R., but let’s see if the storm comes to be at all first.

8:23 PM. It’s going to be a significantly cooler start to the week for the middle of the country than what we have seen for about the last month and a half. It’s been well above normal for many places, but it’s going to feel like fall. Just a reminder for my northern Plains brethren…. this is what fall feels like in Dallas.

1027PM One thing to look at in the next three days with the colder air intruding is the first threat for snow east of the Rockies this year. It’s looking like there will be a strong possibility for snow in the Catskills as a cold front moves through on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Not much, but enough to notice.

7:58PM A brief time out in the Milton coverage, but I would also like to point out that tonight is the NHL opener, it is October 8th, and the NWS Tucson still needs to have this on their main page:

Good advice, but, wow. October? I guess hockey DID leave Arizona, so perhaps there is nothing to signal winter in the area anymore.

12:08AM: The various outlets are going all in on the Milton coverage, and it is warranted. While this storm won’t be the same as Helene – nothing may ever be – Milton will provide his own unique set of circumstances. First, he is tracking through the Gulf, directly at west Florida. This will undoubtedly lead to storm surge. Second, he is angling right for the Tampa area. Wind will also be a concern on top of the likely flooding in St. Petersburg, Clearwater and Sarasota. Third, and fortunately, Milton will cross Florida, and head off to sea, rather than make his way to the mountains.

Stay safe, west Florida. Even with all the action in the area the past few years, Milton looks to be the hardest punch to Tampa, perhaps in living memory.