False returns

To start the month of March, we were monitoring the forecast in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. There wasn’t much to it, honestly, with high pressure over the region and — wait, light rain overnight? I call shenanigans. Actually, specifically, I call out the tendency for the ASOS in the Hattiesburg office for suggesting mist when there often isn’t any. It tends to fog in pretty severely in Hattiesburg, but the actual condensate is harder to verify as legitimate precipitation.
I digress. Nobody had , true or not, in the forecast, so we can comfortably say that Victoria-Weather collected the victory.
Actuals: Saturday – High 71, Low 31
Sunday – High 71, Low 39

Grade: B-C

Deltona, Florida to Hattiesburg, Mississippi

I will admit, that I haven’t done a heck of a lot of driving in the southeastern US, so I don’t have a terribly good concept of just how big the spaces are down there. I am a little surprised, I guess is what I am saying, that Deltona and Hattiesburg are only 610 miles apart, and the drive can be done in just one day. The pace will be a brisk 70mph, owing the fact, I guess, that the only major towns we will bypass are Tallahassee and Mobile, which I guess aren’t beset by traffic.

Deltona, Florida

The weather in Deltona today is quite nice, and there really isn’t anything on its way that suggests that will change for the next 24 hours or so. TYhe start of our drive, therefore, looks pretty great, pretty swift and incident free. Unfrotunately, an area of low pressure developing over Ontario, of all places, is draping a cold front south along the Mississippi River, and it will be inching into the Tennessee Valley as we get going on Monday. Now, the cold front will not reach the coast or I-10 at any point, but the flow feeding the boundary will lead to some afternoon showers and storms from the Florida Peninsula west to Hattiesburg. The shower activity is most possible beyond Tallahassee, but doesn’t become likely until we reach Mobile. The rain won’t last all night, so Hattiesburg should dry up by nightfall. Of course if we want to spend any more time in Hattiesburg than just one night, we might need to make sure our plans are of the “indoor” variety.

Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Hattiesburg is a part of the Jackson WFO, and in my opinion, this is the best Forecast Office in the country. That aside, let’s see if they are as good at forecasting as they are at web design.

At 1253AM, CT, Hattiesburg was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with clear skies. The remnants of a strong system are continuing to clear out of the Ohio VAlley, but otherwise, the satellite remains clear east of the Rockies with a surface ridge building from the Gulf to the Great Lakes.
There continues to be a broad upper level trough, with the base running zonally along the US-Mexican border the northern Gulf, with an undercutting ridge providing the stability over the continental US. The base of the trough being as far south as it is simply for temperatures to remain a bit below normal, though the clear skies will help make up some of the difference in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 34
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. 71,
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. High 70, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Abundant sunshine, High 69, Low 36
Sunday – Partial sunshine High 70, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 37
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 38
Sunday – Mostly sunny im the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 69, Low 44

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, JHigh 69, Low 37
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 68, Low 37
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 72, Low 44

Here’s the satellite for this evening, showing off a very quiet Mississippi, and a quiet Mississippi Valley.

Miami, Florida to Hattiesburg, Mississippi

It seems like these two towns should be nearer to one another, but in fact, it’s a day and a half drive between Miami, way at the south end of Florida, and Hattiesburg. To give you an idea of how big Florida is, our drive covers 817 miles in total, and probably 3/4ths of it are in the Sunshine State. We will do 2/3rds of the driving on day one, which will account for 542 miles at the Floridian pace of 67.8mph, It’s a long ways from Miami to any other state, so be patient.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Miami, Florida

A long, dangling front extends from a low over Newfoundland. If that gives you any idea, by the time the front has reached north Florida, it is quite weak, and as we drive north, it may only bring a few clouds over Orlando. North and west from the Ocala and Gainesville area, however, we will probably note a change in the air. Somewhat cooler air is possible, but more significantly, it will feel drier than Miami. We’ll make it to Grand Ridge in the Panhandle to call our day complete.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
High pressure is developing over the East Coast this weekend, and guidance is suggesting that the return flow will be strongest in the Mobile area. There might be some light rain showers as a result, but more likely, it will just be some puffy cumulus clouds. Hattiesburg won’t have to deal with any of that, but the afternoon will be getting warmer and soupier after we arrive.

Hattiesburg, Mississippi

All Rain is not created equally

We’ll touch upon the storms that have swept through the south, in particular east Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley soon, but in a less important note, gosh darn it it rained in Hattiesburg on Tuesday morning. It wasn’t much. Nobody noticed it because it was so brief and pre-dawn, but forever on the record it will say it rained on Tuesday April 9th, 2019, and nobody will remember it or acknowledge it, because it was a trace of rain in a week that saw the area get pummeled by more concerted rounds of stormy conditions. on Monday and then again over the weekend. All of these complaints are to say that Victoria-Weather didn’t do greater with the forecast. The National Weather Service and WeatherNation did, however, winning the day.
Actual: Tuesday -Trace of rain, High 81, Low 62
Wednesday – High 82, Low 56

Grade: A-C

Hattiesburg, Mississippi

After a quiet weekend, we are jumping back into the world of forecasting. Another big storm looms here in mid April, which is fine alongthe Gulf Coast, and might even be a little fun. Don’t ask about what it’s like up north.

At 753PM, CT, Hattiesburg was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees and overcast skies. Central Mississippi was seeing an active weather night, as a clearly evident vorticity maximum centered southeast of Brandon was drawing a band of thunderstorms along I-59, however the southern end was pulling northeast and away from town. The air in the southeast is juicy and unstable, but the trough parenting this hit of low pressure has little upper level support and a lot of forward momentum. Expect a quiet night in Hattiesburg.
And so it will be on Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level high pressure follows into Mississippi. Expect a brisk warm up on Wednesday as a beast of a system develops in the central Plains and taps into the Gulf of Mexico for moisture.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, warmer and more humid, High 85, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – A shower or two around the area in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Thunder possible High 80, Low 61
Wednesday- A mainly sunny sky. High 86, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – A passing morning shower; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 79, Low 63
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine; warmer High 86, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 81, Low 62
Wednesday – Sunny High 84, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the morning High 78, Low 63
Wednesday – Sunny, high 85, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 81, Low 62
Wednesday – Sunny, High 84, Low 56

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 80, Low 63
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 56

First, check out the radar, and the low pressure evident even on this map.

Now let’s check in with WJTV from Mississippi for the Pine Belt forecast.