Tag Archives: Baltimore

Betrayed by the lows

When a forecast calls for a front to move through town, it seems like the primary issue will revolve around the timing, trying to establish when the high temperature will occur and then extrapolating the plunge in temperature, leading to a messy high and low on back to back days. Not in Baltimore, though! No, the problems revolved exclusively around the low temperatures, both on Wednesday and on Thursday, which were much cooler both the day after the frontal passage, and the day after that! The rain ended late, too, which usually would mean a warmer overnight low on the next day, so you will have to forgive some universally misguided forecasts. The National Weather Service was able to sneak in a victory, however, thanks to a less bad forecast, and also being one of only two outlets to have rain continuing into Wednesday morning.
Actuals: Wednesday – Trace of rain, High 56, Low 37
Thursday – High 49, Low 32

Grade: C-D

Baltimore, Maryland to Terre Haute, Indiana

Here is another road trip, just ready for us to take it. We’re going to head from Indiana to Baltimore, a route that is almost entirely due east. We’ll cover the route in one 10 hour day at a pace of about 67mph, with a total of 671 miles accounting for the distance between the two towns. Shall we explore the highways and byways?

The back end of a cold front that brought snow to the southeastern US did the same to the Mid-Atlantic yesterday, and a good chunk of the eastern Seaboard now has a fresh white blanket. Meanwhile, the next trough is getting ready to pivot through the Great Lakes, with a few isolated snow showers moving through the Great Lakes. Here is the good news, though. The snow won’t be far enough south to clip Indiana or Ohio as we drive through those states, and the areas east of the Appalachians, like as we arrive in Baltimore, will have already wave good bye to the snow of the last few days. It comes down to whether or not the departments if transportation in the area have cleared the roads as to whether or not we will have a good drive on Sunday. I think we’ll be ok.

Dothan, Alabama to Baltimore, Maryland

It’s a day and a half from southern Alabama to the shores of Chesapeake Bay, and with a cold front dragging through the country and cold air filling in everywhere, that’s not going to be as dramatic a change as it might usually be in December. Dothan won’t be much better than Baltimore! The towns are 890 miles apart, and the drive will cover the ground at a pace of 64mph. As I noted, it’s a day and a half between the two towns, with Wednesday, the full day of driving, covering 514 miles.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

There is really no reason for this, but this is the type of pattern that drives me nuts. A cold front, now distended and much less active, will lie off the coast from New England and the mid Atlantic, but will be a stalled stationary boundary wrapping from the Carolinas and southwest through the Gulf Coast states. You get this set up, and then it never seems to want to change. So that’s where we’ll be at. Rain is likely in Dothan as we get going, and then that won’t even ever really change as we head through Georgia and into the Carolinas. The rain will be fairly light, with some breaks, but all the pavement we see will be damp, and it’s unlikely we get any sunlight. We’ll make it to Thomasville, North Carolina, which is in the Winston-Salem/Greensboro area.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
We’ll break out into the sun by the time we reach Richmond, but then we will be confronted with different concerns, namely a brisk northwest wind and chillier air temperatures. It probably won’t reach freezing until the DC area, and even then, it will be a close call, and fortunately, there has been plenty of time between the rain and the temperature drop in this part of the world, so we shouldn’t have any slick roadways. Keep both hands on the wheel because of those winds, and don a jacket when you start exploring the Inner Harbor.

Baltimore, Maryland

Tomorrow – Early morning rain, and then mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 42
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 45, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. . High 58, Low 43
Thursday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 48, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with clouds moving away to leave sunshine High 60, Low 46
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 49, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 8am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny,  High 54, Low 41
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 46, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 57, Low 39
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 46, low 38

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 53, Low 41
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 35

FiO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 54, Low 39
Thursday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 45, Low 34

Toledo, Ohio to Baltimore, Maryland

It’s interesting to think, but because of layovers and proximities to airports, it would take only 4 hours longer to drive from Toledo to Baltimore than fly, and that doesn’t even account for the wait at the airport. Yes, the drive is going to be just short of 8 hours, covering 488 miles at a pace of 62.8mph, which isn’t terribly fast, but accounts for sluggish traffic, especially in and around the Nation’s Capitol.



Hurricane Maria, if you haven’t forgotten about her, continues to linger just off the east coast, and will be moving towards the Outer Banks as a Category 2 storm. Still strong, but not the monster that has devastated Puerto Rico,and she is expected to turn away from the coast before really doing any damage inland, though surf will be up on the beaches. For our route, though? From northwest Ohio to Baltimore? Nothing. Maria will help a very strong ridge in the east scour the atmosphere, and will allow us to drive through the Appalachians, perhaps without seeing a single cloud until we get to the Charm City.

Holiday in the Harbor

Temperatures remained warmer than anyone really anticipated in Baltimore, save for the morning low on Monday. This was indicative of clearer skies than anyone had projected, but the rain did come. There was .08 inches of it on Tuesday, but there was nearly a quarter inch on Monday. The smothering clouds kept temperatures in the 40s all day yesterday, which was a bit warmer at the low end than anyone expected. Accuweather ended up with the best forecast thanks to perfect high temperature numbers, despite reaching the same failures on low temperatures forecast as everyone else.
Actuals: Monday – .22 inches of rain, High 40, Low 23
Tuesday – .08 inches of rain, High 49, Low 40

Grade: B

Baltimore, Maryland

There is an interesting week coming for the east coast. How early will the nasty weather arrive in Baltimore?

At 554PM, ET, Baltimore was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with clear skies. There was a weak wave off the coast of New England producing some clouds, and a developing system off the Carolina coast that promised to enhance overnight and bring some thunderstorms to Florida and Georgia tonight. Baltimore was safely between the two systems with no threat of shower activity in the short term. As the low off the Carolinas develops, however, there will likely be a few showers tomorrow morning.
A deep trough developing over the center of the country will generate an overriding onshore flow in the mid-Atlantic that will cause moisture to languish in the mid Atlantic through the day tomorrow. The trough will feature a dissipating surface low over the Great Lakes, which will be responsible for keeping Baltimore cloudy on Tuesday as well as Monday. The shower activity will begin to diminish late on Tuesday as the base of the upper level trough taps into the Gulf of Mexico. A strong surface system, the well advertised “Santabomb” will initially draw moisture away from Baltimore and give the area a break on Tuesday night.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, heavier in the evening High 38, Low 28
Tuesday – Rain earlier and warmer, High 49, Low 33

TWC: Tomorrow – PM Showers, High 40, Low 31
Tuesday – Cloudy 48, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain followed by a steadier rain High 40, Low 27
Tuesday – Mainly cloudy and milder with areas of drizzle High 49, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 37, Low 30
Tuesday – A chance of rain. Cloudy, High 47, Low 37

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning…then becoming cloudy High 35, Low 30
Tuesday – Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. High 45, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Rain High 37, Low 34
Tuesday – Cloudy with Chance of Light Rain High 48, Low 36

The high on Monday may well come at midnight as the flow switches to come strongly from the south. I doubt it. But it could.

It comes down to the low

I mentioned how unusual the spread in everyone’s forecasts was in Baltimore, particularly as it regarded the low on Friday morning. Models were hinting at a low in the upper 40s, but the Weather Service, Weather Channel and Weatherbug all went near or over 60. It paid off for Victoria-Weather and the forecast champion Accuweather as the low yesterday morning was 50.
Actuals: Thursday – High 88, Low 64
Friday – High 81, Low 50

Grade: C

Baltimore, Maryland

Off to Baltimore today, which is in the throes of a minor thunderstorm outbreak. Certainly nothing like what happened in Springfield, Massachusetts today.

At 654PM, ET, Baltimore was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There is a a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for Maryland, with strong storms near Andrews Air Force Base, though they will be heading towards Annapolis and will remain south of Baltimore.
A old front that moved through the Upper Midwest two days ago and the Great Lakes yesterday is moving through today. The boundary remains in western Pennsylvania, and until it finds it’s way through, it appears there will be a threat for another storm. After the front does move through, a weak but sharp ridge will build in, keeping Baltimore cooler but dry.
Tomorrow – Morning fog, then sunny, High 85, Low 61
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 86, Low 66
Friday – Partly cloudy. High 82, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny; breezy, less humid and cooler High 83, Low 61
Friday – Partly sunny and nice High 80, Low 52

NWS: Tomorow – Sunny High 84, Low 66
Friday – Mostly sunny High 81, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 84, Low 66
Friday – Mostly sunny. High 81, Low 59

Interesting. Accuweather and Victoria-Weather are more in line with the models (cool on Friday morning) while Weatherbug, the Weather Service and and The Weather Channel used their own special sauce. Radar shows that strong storm south of Baltimore.