The Week Ahead 1/29/12-2/4/12
Posted by Ryan
Mere days until February, a very short month, which will segue into March, which is Spring. It's almost Spring! We haven't forecast any snow all stinkin' winter. Will it change this week?
Sunday - Madison, Wisconsin
Wednesday - St. Petersburg, Florida
Thursday - Road trip from St. Petersburg to State College, Pennsylvania
Friday - Road trip from State College to Des Moines, Iowa
Saturday - Kansas City, Missouri
Charlotte, North Carolina to Chico, California
Posted by Ryan
/emits low whistle. This is going to be a 5 day road trip, and will take up every second of those 5 days. It's 2716 miles between the two cities, and our average speed will be 66.2. Our first 4 days will cover 529 miles, and the 5th will be the remainder, which is a bit more than the first 4 days. There is a lot of ground to cover, so we had best be on our way.
DAY ONE
We will depart Charlotte with California in mind and sun in our eyes. Well, in the rearview, since we will be headed west. Whatever. The sun won't last us all the way through the mountains, though, because a clipper moving through Canada will swing a little bit of light rain towards the Smokeys. It will be a really quick shot of rain, along with some blustery winds between Knoxville and Nashville, after which point we will drive with sunny skies. The end destination for the first day in the car will be Reidland, Kentucky, which was a stop on yesterday's trip TO Charlotte.
DAY TWO
Day two, and it's high pressure all the way! Warmer air will even begin to build in as we hit western Missouri! Exclamation points! We will turn north from Kansas City towards I-80 before the day ends, and stop for the night in Country Club, Missouri, which is pretty much the north side of St. Joseph.
DAY THREE
More high pressure! Monday will be as easy as Sunday, and even perhaps more so as the largest city we encounter will be Lincoln, Nebraska as we make our westward turn. The day will end, after a whole lot of problem free Nebraska driving, in Pine Bluffs, Wyoming, right along the state line with Nebraska.
DAY FOUR
Tuesday and not much will change. There is a bit of a system that will be working it's way through the Northern Rockies, but for our purposes, it will only bring precipitation to the peaks of Wyoming, and there aren't many in the middle of I-80. Still, we should be wary of the mountain passes. What often doesn't look like much in the models can sometimes be brutal in real life when we are talking about mountain driving. Barring a catastrophe in Wyoming, we will make it to Delle, Utah, on the southwest shore of Salt Lake City.
DAY FIVE
Hey, almost there! And not much in store for the 5th day either. There is a system over the Gulf of Alaska that will pump moisture into the Pacific Northwest, and may cause some high clouds to spill into Northern California, and even then, that won't be until the end of the day. Chico awaits!
Denver, Colorado to Charlotte, North Carolina
Posted by Ryan
We are destined for a nice three day road trip today, between two of America's larger cities, a feat that doesn't often happen. We also don't get to cut through the heart of Kansas very often, so I hope everyone can relish that. It's 1562 miles between the two cities, and we will cover that distance of a rate of 64.5mph. This pace will mean 516 miles a day, surely a manageable pace. Tally-ho!
DAY ONE
We are preparing for the next wave to come out of the Rockies, and it might be preparing to bring some snow to Denver as we prepare to depart Denver. After a warm day today, Denver will enjoy a return to winter that won't be able to chase us too far into the Plains. As we hit Limon, the precipitation will cut off, but I don't think we will see the sun we would typically expect from a rain shadow. The system bringing the snow to the Rockies will be moving into the Upper Midwest and begin to organize itself enough to start spitting out a few showers in Kansas. There is a very slight chance we see a bit of a rain-snow mix after passing through Salina, Kansas, and will fight the sloppiness as we pull into Paxico, Kansas, though again, it's not going to be very heavy precipitation.
DAY TWO
Missouri is a bit hillier than many people anticipate, so it would be a little unpleasant to have to drive through with inclement weather in the area. Fortunately, as we sleep, the fast moving system that plagued us on our Friday drive will clear out, allowing us to traverse the Show Me State in peace and quiet and sunshine. Really, life will be good, and it will be a Saturday, so traffic in Kansas City and St. Louis will be pretty decent. The day will end in Reidland, Kentucky, which is just outside Paducah on the shores of the Ohio River.
DAY THREE
A pivoting trough will swing south from the low now moving through Canada. I don't think it will have enough juice to really bring us any problems, aside, perhaps, from some fog in far eastern Tennessee as we begin to climb through the Smokey Mountains. That's how they got their name, after all, from the persistent fog at their peak. In any event, that fog will certainly lift by the time we arrive in Charlotte Sunday evening.
Denver, Colorado
Posted by Anthony
Off to Denver we go today. When one things of Colorado, they think of mountains, snowing, winter... typically not temperatures in the 60s in January.
At 953pm MST, the temperature at Denver, CO was 42 degrees under a few clouds. A ridge of high pressure will be shifting out of the Great Basin over the Central Rockies tomorrow, with some downsloping winds warming things up in the Denver area. To what degree, however, will be the big question. Forecast models are differing by about a dozen degrees, but either way it should be a pleasant day! Clouds will be increasing later in the day as a system currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest will barrel over the Northern Rockies and into the Northern/Central Plains for Friday. The mountains off to the west will see some snow from this system, and the greater Denver area could see a couple light snow showers Friday morning as the bulk of the energy passes off towards the north. Temperatures will barely recover during the afternoon as colder air continues to filter in, with low temps for the day bottoming out towards midnight. Looks like a roller coaster couple of days for the fine residents of Denver!
Thursday: Increasing clouds. High 56, Low 30.
Friday: A few scattered morning snow showers. High 37, Low 23.
TWC: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 55, Low 31.
Friday: Morning snow showers. High 39, Low 29.
AW: Thursday: Partly sunny. High 51, Low 33.
Friday: Cooler with a bit of snow. High 42, Low 25.
NWS: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 53, Low 28.
Friday: 30% chance of snow. High 39, Low 30.
WB: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 52, Low 30.
Friday: 30% chance of morning snow. High 39, Low 31.
Here we see the system pushing into the Pacific Northwest, soon it'll be heading towards the Central Rockies!
Alabama Stricken Again
Posted by Anthony
When we think of Tornado Alley, everybody things of the Great Plains with large tornadoes rolling through cornfields and otherwise mostly open areas. The last year or so, however, seems to have had that shift towards the Southeast. We're all too familiar with the new Super Outbreak that killed hundreds in MS, AL and other states in the Southeast last April. Monday into Tuesday morning saw Alabama take another big hit when a pair of EF-3 twisters blew through the state during the early morning hours, killing 3 and injuring 100+ persons. Clay, AL, which is only a few miles northeast of Birmingham, took the biggest strike with over 100 houses completely flattened and another 100-200 houses heavily damaged throughout the county. Of course, Birmingham was one of the cities that was hit hard by the outbreak last year, and no doubt drudged up some unpleasant memories in the pitch black when the storms rolled through. Just another reminder that Mother Nature can get ugly in any month of the year. However, severe outbreaks from January - March are usually confined to the Southeast and far Southern Plains, so places further north can breathe a little easier for the time being anyways.
When Fronts Slow Down
Posted by Anthony
Everybody had a forecast high of 41 or lower for Monday at Springfield. Sadly, the cold front didn't make it through until about 4am Monday morning, when temperatures had topped out at 50 just after midnight before crashing into the mid 30s by mid-morning, then never recovered. NWS took home the top spot on the strength of their accuarate low temperature forecasts.
Sunday: 0.05" of rain. High 50, Low 25.
Monday: 0.06" of rain. High 50, Low 33.
Forecast Grade: C
Synoptic Analysis for 1/23/12
Posted by Ryan
After I attempted a synoptic analysis last week, only to find a good HPC analysis, I am able to come back with something a little more compelling. The main system is responsible for the severe weather seen overnight from Memphis to Birmingham, where a tornado was responsible for 2 deaths. So what does the picture look like? First, the HPC analysis.
And now, a look at the Synoptic Analysis, which is substantially different. (The analysis from 21z, or 3PM CT was issued after I pulled this one. It's a blend the two images here)
1) This is a strong area of low pressure, so I fail to see why now, or over the past 2 or 3 days it has been analyzed as multiple systems. There were a lot of issues taken with the initial surface analysis. First, the system is clearly not occluded, given the orientation of the jet. Second, the stationary front to the north is more accurately defined as a warm front, further demonstrating that the system is not, in fact, occluded. Lastly, I don't know what the deal is with that cold front. There is a shield of clouds, as there often is with deep areas of low pressure, artificially keeping temperatures low near the system itself, not a secondary cold front. (never minding my inability to draw the jet very well. It's pretty close, though)
2) I actually don't have a problem with the cold front there. I drew a trough because surface reflection and upper level dynamics didn't quite jive, mostly because of the topography of the area. Again, no problem with the front as analyzed, but I would prefer, with a system this compact, to analyze it as a trough until it moves into the Plains.
3) DOWNSLOPING! IT'S JUST FREAKING DOWNSLOPING
4) This is a little bit different. The warm front as analyzed is actually at the base of some cold air damming, which means that denser, cool air isn't clearing out, because warm air is overriding it as it climbs over the mountains. Pretty common to see this in strong systems near the Appalachians, and really only happens when there is a ridge over the Maritimes to feed in more cold air.
As with every year, the first severe outbreak is heading for Memphis
Posted by Ryan
As it so often seems, the first major severe outbreak of the year has Memphis, Tennessee in it's sights. An area of low pressure has developed rapidly through the Plains, and has drawn a great deal of warm air north towards the Ohio Valley with some deep cool air chasing. All of this is associated with a well wrapped, high vorticity system. What does this mean? This:
The strong thunderstorms are expected to develop within the next hour or so, exploding from southern Illinois to Arkansas and Louisiana, moving east with damaging wind and large tornadoes the greatest concern. As the above graphic indicates, the Storm Prediction Center is anticipating not only tornadoes, but large, destructive tornadoes from this system, possible from Cairo, Illinois to Natchez, Mississippi and points to the west and east. Not pictured is the forecast for strong, damaging straight line winds, which could end up being nearly as damaging from Bloomington, Indiana to Tupelo, Mississippi.
The greatest threat for the severe weather will be through about 10pm tonight, but severe storms will continue to be possible as the storms rumble eastward through midnight. Tonight would be a great night to stay tuned to local media in order to keep up on the severe weather outbreak on deck this evening.
Fortunately, many people will be watching network TV because of the AFC and NFC championship games. Maybe football will save some lives tonight.
Even warmer than advertised
Posted by Ryan
Things were forecast to be warm in Brownsville the last couple of days, but temperatures were able to climb even higher than anyone had hinted at. Clouds streaming off the Gulf were not to be had, which allowed a couple extra degrees of warmth, and handed the top forecast award to The Weather Channel.
Actuals: Friday, High 82, Low 68
Saturday, High 84, Low 66
Grade: B
Springfield, Illinois
Posted by Ryan
Off to the farmland outpost and capital of Illinois for today's forecast. I just passed through Springfield for the first time ever a couple weeks ago. It was very nice.
At 1251PM, CT, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 30 degrees with a fairly steady east wind. There was a hole within a broad swath of overcast over the Midwest, and Springfield was enjoying some sunshine and warmer temperatures compared to sites even just to the west near the Mississippi River.
Sharp upper level troughing through the Rockies is leading to an intense amplification of a lee side trough along the Front Range. This is indicative of the system preparing to emerge from the highlands into the Mid Mississippi valley. The first impact for Springfield will be a warm up, thanks to southerly flow, and a few clouds. The heaviest rain and thunderstorm activity will develop over and just east of Springfield on Monday morning, followed by a cool, northwesterly wind. Don't be surprised if there are a few spots of drizzle Sunday evening before the real show starts on Monday.
Tomorrow - Increasing clouds, warm with some light rain late. High 44, Low 24
Monday - Some rain early, then clearing and colder, High 40, Low 31
TWC: Tomorrow - Cloudy skies with a few showers later in the day High 43, Low 24
Monday - Considerably cloudy (rain/snow before sunrise) High 38, Low 34
AW: Tomorrow - Breezy and milder with some sun, then increasing clouds, evening shower, High 45, Low 28
Monday - Breezy with partial sunshine High 40, Low 27
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of rain after noon. Mostly cloudy High 47, Low 25
Monday - Partly sunny, (showers before sunrise) High 41, Low 32
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of rain in the afternoon. High 47, Low 25
Monday - Partly sunny (predawn rain/snow) High 41, Low 34
We are in a very active pattern right now, and as Springfield's forecast indicates, the weather will be changing quickly from day to day. Satellite shows the Illinois capital in a clear window.
