from Victoria-Weather
Our next forecasts will take us through the beginning of summer. I’m going to tell you that it means we are going to see some warm temperatures, and not just because one of our forecasts is for Phoenix.
Sandusky, Ohio
Fort Smith, Arkansas
Road Trip from Fort Collins, Colorado to Fort Smith
Phoenix, Arizona
We are taking a two and a half day drive through the western US on this occasion. Expect heat, undulating terrain and a pace of 67mph, or so, with a daily goal of 537 miles. Driving in California is a challenge of it’s own, so we can plan a half day drive in the Golden State. Westward, ho!
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
It’s getting busy in the Plains, with showers and storms offering quite a bit for storm chasers to enjoy. The storms usually show up in the afternoon and north of the Palmer Divide lately, and neither of those will apply to our time in Pueblo. In fact, eastern Colorado is looking at a respite from the stormy conditions on Wednesday, so, if anything, it might just be a bit dusty. We will head first south to Albuquerque and west to Petrified Forest National Park, all without a drop. It will be a beautiful drive, and undoubtedly a bit on the warm side.
DAY TWO (Thursday)
If the desert heat doesn’t much bother you on Wednesday, I have a guess that it may on Thursday. We will drive through the heat of the Mohave (in fact, stopping in the town of Mohave for the night) after getting out of the higher terrain of Arizona. Low pressure is setting up a bit in the Rockies, so there could be some light wind, but really, it will be fairly tame as compared to what it usually is (it will be around 100). Your tires aren’t going to melt.
DAY THREE (Friday)
The rise and fall of our drive through the Coastal Range will be the real climate winner for the day. Temperatures will drop to something more tolerable, chilly, even, when the wind is up. Monterey bay will be serene, and we will enjoy our time in Santa Cruz.
Our forecast in Dalton earlier this month was within a string of potentially stormy days for the southeast. Just because of how the topography works, and the inflow of moisture isn’t as robust further north, away from the Gulf. But the moisture did reach to Dalton, importantly, because not everyone expected it to, not both the 4th and the 5th, and in a couple of cases, not on either day. Rain fall was very light, but a mismanaged precipitation forecast ended up securing the victory for the Weather Service.
Actuals: June 4th, .01″ of rain, High 85, Low 69
June 5th, High .02″ of rain, High 84, Low 65
Grade: B, D
It’s a two day trek through the Plains between Jonesboro and Pueblo. We will cover 891 miles at a pace of a mere 61.1mph, of which very little wll e on the interstate. The first day will conclude after about 489 miles of motoring. This feels like a drive that should be done in an old pick up, doesn’t it?
DAY ONE (Thursday)
I’ve recently been to Jonesboro, and it is a nice little town. It was a bit on the rainy side when I visited a few years ago, and it will be more of the same as we head out on Thursday morning. A bit of an upper level trough will help open up the Gulf, with moisture tracking through the lower Mississippi Valley. The northern terminus of rain shower activity will mirror our route. Showers will be off and on throughout the day, and we will reach the western edge of the rain fall activity by the end of the day, between Wichita and Hutchinson in the town of Haven.
DAY TWO (Friday)
All of this activity is going to be swept up and way towards the Ohio Valley, and ready to spend the weekend in New England, where all precipitation spends it’s weekend. This will give us a lovely, unaffected drive through Kansas. A bit of a lee trough is going to start cycling some air as we approach Pueblo, but it won’t impact us in terms of precipitation, instead producing some orographic thunderstorms in Wyoming, near the Sand Hills of Nebraska. No problem in Pueblo!
12:11PM – It is not the weekend, and do you know how I know that? Because it is not raining anywhere in the mid-Atlantic or New England (also because I have a calendar). It’s been raining on the weekend for several weeks in a row almost everywhere, and that total is mounting up to months worth of weekends now. It’s probably going to rain again this coming weekend, too.
There is a lot to be said about the tremendous change in geography from west to east in Colorado, but not enough is noted about the changes you see along the front range from north to south. Denver is a very different town from Pueblo, from the setting to the people. The weather is usually fairly dissimilar as well, and I’m sure it will be again this week.
At 1053PM, MT, Pueblo was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. While the pattern at the highest levels of the atmosphere was fairly unremarkable, the dry line is becoming active, and there was a bit of a curl to the flow over west Texas. This is helping focus todays and future storms around the dry line.
There will be a westerly flow throughout the period over Colorado, which will result in some spotty showers over the Rockies, but the combination of moisture being restricted from the Gulf and the downsloping winds will render precipitation in Pueblo improbably, and sun and warm temperatures the more likely scenario for the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warm, High 92, Low 57
Thursday – Sunny and hot, High 91, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly sunny early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 90, Low 57
AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 92, Low 55
Thursday – Sun followed by some clouds and very warm, turning breezy in the afternoon with a thunderstorm around High 94, Low 56
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 57
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 57
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. High 87, Low 62
Thursday – Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 61
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 91, Low 58
Thursday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms High 92, Low 57
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, high 91, Low 56
Thursday – Light rain showers, High 93, Low 58
Certainly some discrepancy in the rain forecasts. I’m standing by myself with this one, but I feel good. Maybe a few showers down by Trinidad, but I think Pueblo stays dry. Clouds are overshooting the Rockies this evening
9:21PM – June is typically when things start to settle down for the severe season, with generalized convection in the south, and rogue strong storms in the north and east, but the cold pool that has been sitting in the Great Lakes meant severe weather, intense at time, lingered in the southern Plains even in Texas last night. Now? Nothing rises higher than a Marginal Risk over the next several days. Summer!
10:57PM – The Goodland NWS office has this idea summarized in their weather story.
Much of the upper Midwest, in addition to being off to a fairly cool start to June, has also offered up respiratory distress for many of it’s residents. Canadian wild fire smoke has plagued the region, thanks to a northerly regime and some light intermittent showers bringing the smoke aloft down to the surface. The first day of June, coincidentally the second day of our forecast period in Green Bay was the first really impactful day of the smoke for many locations. It has been a bit worse further to the west from Green Bay, but the north wind and diffused sunlight ensured that temperatures didn’t spike despite the sunshine. There was a three way tie at the top of the forecast charts. The National Weather Service and WeatherNation had the same forecast, so naturally were a part of the tie, but Victoria-Weather came about it a different way and still ended up in the three way knot.
Actuals: May 31st, High 73, Low 43
June 1st, High 74, Low 42
Grade: B-C
2:58PM – As a result of going away from the county based warning system to a “polygon” system, but also still using counties to some degree, we have had these weird nested warnings on our radar displays now for a some time. No, Georgia, you aren’t in a double warning because the storms are so bad, you are in a double warning because geospatial mapping isn’t as easy as anyone thinks it should be.
10:44PM: It is quarter to 11 on June 9th, and there is finally no rain in the Twin Cities area. Does this mean warmer temperatures? And will the departure of the persistent north wind, does that means less smoke? Probably! I hope!
It wasn’t a busy month for forecasts for us, but there was still plenty to talk about. Tornado season leads to hurricane season, and as a result, there is always a little bit of extra attention on the weather this time of year, so even if we didn’t get a high volume of forecasts, their success was a little bit weightier. The beleaguered National Weather Service did come through with the top forecasts for the month.
| Outlet | Forecast Wins (year) |
| The Weather Channel | 4 |
| National Weather Service | 4 |
| Accuweather | 3.5 |
| Weatherbug | 3 |
| Clime | 2.5 |
| Victoria-Weather | 2.5 |
| WeatherNation | 1.5 |
