Lawton, Oklahoma to Dayton, Ohio
Posted by Anthony
Today, we undertake a 2-day, 940-mile trip through America's Heartland. Let's see what the rest of the workweek has in store for this trip!
DAY ONE
It'll be a quiet start to the day as we head northeast out of Lawton towards Oklahoma City. For most of the morning, it should be mostly sunny with just some high clouds when we make our way past Tulsa. As we make our way past Joplin and towards Springfield, we can expect it to cloud up a little more as a couple of scattered showers/thunderstorms develop along a weak boundary setting up from Kansas to Tennessee. We'll eventually end our night in St. Louis after dodging a couple showers in the evening, but should be mainly dry.
DAY TWO
A cloudy start is expected to the day as southerly flow continues over the Mid-MS Valley, with perhaps a few isolated showers lingering around from the previous night. Most of the activity from the developing system in the Central US will remain west of St. Louis through mid-day, giving us a bit of a break as we head eastward through southern Illinois and past Indianapolis. Conditions will continue to improve as we push eastward into western Ohio to finish our trip at Dayton!
Lovely in Lincoln
Posted by Anthony
Well, the isolated chance for a shower at Lincoln didn't pan out, but then again, that's why we said slight chance. Tuesday cooled down a few degrees, but overall was another pleasant day in the Central Plains. Weatherbug took home the win.
Monday: High 88, Low 63.
Tuesday: High 83, Low 61.
Forecast Grade: A
Lawton, Oklahoma
Posted by Ryan
Off to Lawton for today's forecast. The Lawton area tends to see a shorter tornado season than Oklahoma City or Tulsa because they are far enough west that they are too hot or dry for real thunderstorms. What does today entail?
At 253PM, CT, Lawton was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The pattern has been fairly stagnant over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms erupting along the Front Range and drifting east, with a weak boundary struggling to press south through Texas. Tonight, neither feature will impact Lawton.
An area of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest, of all places, will subtly change the dynamic over western Oklahoma and the southern Plains. The axis of thunderstorms that has been over eastern Colorado south into the Texas Panhandle will adjust so as to lie from western Kansas to western Oklahoma in the next two evenings. Tomorrow's storms will be the strongest as the area of convergence taps into a fresh source of energy for the first time, but there will be weaker showers on Thursday evening with the region already worked over. The thunderstorm activity shouldn't ruin many plans; the hot weather will likely do a decent enough job of that.
Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, with late storms, High 90, Low 68
Thursday - Sunny with some late rain High 95, Low 71
TWC: Tomorrow Partly Cloudy High 92, Low 68
Thursday - Sunny High 96, Low 70
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny (PM Storms) High 92, Low 69
Thursday - Mostly sunny, breezy and hot High 96, Low 72
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny (Late storms) High 88, Low 68
Thursday - Mostly sunny (Late storms), High 94, Low 72
WB: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms High 90, Low 69
Thursday - Mostly sunny High 94, Low 71
Toasty, certainly. I don't use percentages in my forecasts, but that 20% sort of number sounds pretty good. Here is the current satellie for the region.
Cool in the hills
Posted by Ryan
Carson City lies at a slightly higher elevation than cities around it. Reno is the closest city that puts out numerical forecast information, so it's a little tough to figure out exactly what's going on in the state capital unless you look at the town often. Weatherbug handled the lack of reliable data quite handsomely, nailing the forecast and winning the top spot.
Actuals: Sunday - High 80, Low 44
Monday - High 82, Low 46
Grade: A
San Antonio, Texas
Posted by Ryan
Off to the Alamo for our Monday evening forecast. The heat of the summer is fully entrenched now.
At 551PM, CT, San Antonio was reporting a temperature of 93 degrees with partly cloudy skies. The dew point was nearly 70, reflecting the southerly flow bringing Gulf moisture to the city. This has manifested itself as clouds overnight across much of Texas for the past two days, and will likely do the same this evening.
Mid level forces are going to help redirect flow over the next couple of days, which will help convective activity presently seen over north Texas attempt to tap into the latent energy of southern Texas. The push won't do much long term, but late tomorrow, expect a thickening of clouds and a chance for some light rain. Warmer temperatures with drier air are possible on Wednesday, but the boost shouldn't be significant.
Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy, with some rain late, High 94, Low 74
Wednesday - Cloudy early, clearing late, High 94, Low 73
TWC: Tomorrow - Mostly Sunny High 94, Low 75
Wednesday - Partly Cloudy High 94, Low 73
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny High 94, Low 76
Wednesday - Partial sunshine High 93, Low 75
NWS: Tomorrow - Partly sunny High 95, Low 76
Wednesday - Partly sunny, High 95, Low 75
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. High 95, Low 77
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. High 95, Low 76
I am the only one who thinks it might rain. That's a little ominous. Here is the satellite, showing a bunch of convection over west Texas and near Dallas.
Carson City, Nevada to Lincoln, Nebraska
Posted by Anthony
Today we head off for a 3-day, 1,425 mile road trip, from Carson City, NV to Lincoln, NE. It'll sure be a scenic trip, so get that camera ready!
DAY ONE
We start off leaving our lovely point of origin in the Sierra Nevada. With an upper ridge over the Western US, today should remain dry and fairly cloud free the entire route to Salt Lake City, our stop for day one.
DAY TWO
Today is gonna be much like the previous one, with a pretty quiet start to the day as we continue our trek on I-80. Much of the day will be benign, but as we get into the eastern half of Wyoming, some afternoon convection is expected to pop off. Things might get a little dicey as we head into Cheyenne, where we'll end this leg of the trip, but should only affect the final 50-100 miles to today's jaunt, and odds are the worst of it will ignite after we've already arrived.
DAY THREE
Today will be the longest leg of the three, but it's pretty much a straight shot through the plains of Nebraska until we get to our destination. Some high clouds will be breaking up as we start the day, but a stronger southerly flow will increase them once again by midday as we make our way past Ogallala. Storms will be mostly isolated as we continue through the central part of the state, but as we make our way into Lincoln, conditions should be dry and just some mid-level clouds blotting out the evening sun.
Lincoln, Nebraska
Posted by Anthony
Off to the land of Cornhuskers for today's forecast. Will it be a favorable start to the week?
At 1054pm CDT, the temperature at Lincoln, NE was 77 degrees under fair skies. A weak impulse is expected to ride down over the Central Plains tomorrow, kicking up some more showers and storms from central Nebraska down into the Red River Valley. Western Nebraska will be under the gun moreso than the eastern portions, so while most of the day is expected to be mostly sunny and warm, there is still a chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm wandering into the city during the evening. High pressure will continue to work its way into the Upper Midwest and assert some of its influence into eastern Nebraska. There might be a couple brief showers pop up over the area Tuesday evening, but I'm expecting Lincoln to be dry, and continued warm.
Monday: Mostly sunny, a slight chance of an evening thundershower. High 86, Low 67.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, continued warm. High 87, Low 60.
TWC: Monday: An isolated thunderstorm possible. High 85, Low 64.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 84, Low 62.
AW: Monday: Partly sunny and less humid, isolated evening shower possible, High 86, Low 64.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 59.
NWS: Monday: Couple isolated thunderstorms in early evening. High 84, Low 64.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 83, Low 61.
WB: Monday: Mostly sunny. High 85, Low 64.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 82, Low 61.
Here we see some high cloudtops getting blown over southern Nebraska, from a squall line setting up over southwestern KS. Gonna be a rough night for them as well in northern OK.
Historic European Flooding
Posted by Anthony
Here in Minnesota, we went through most of last year and the first part of this year under a very severe drought. Predictions were that it was going to continue through this spring, however, plentiful rains have pretty much eradicated most of it throughout our state. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, a change in the jet stream caused portions of Central Europe to experience historic flooding.
A strong blocking high pressure set up shop over Scandinavia in late May. This lead the jet stream to rocket southwards over Central Europe, and in the process, bringing a pair of strong low pressure systems over the region. Also, this opened up this portion of the continent for warmer, Mediterranean moisture to stream northward to meet these colder, southward-diving systems. The resultant showers and thunderstorms that developed over the Alps dropped rainfall amounts that caused nothing less than devastating floods in portions of far southern Germany and portions of Austria. The Danube river overflowed its banks in Deggendorf, flooding much of the city, and Grein, Austria was mostly spared only thanks to a mammoth floodwall build along the river. In Dresden, Germany, the Elbe River swamped most of the city, peaking at just under 29 feet when the normal is around 7 feet. Between May 29th and June 6th, a whopping 10-14 inches of rain fell in areas along the Germany/Austria border, with most of the surrounding area getting 4-8" themselves. While the Alps were getting over a foot of rain, Scandinavia was dry. And HOT. Areas in Northern Finland, Sweden, and neighboring parts of Russia were averaging 15-20 degrees above normal. Some stations north of the Arctic Circle clocked in all-time May highs, with one station reporting an impressive 87 degrees!
Luckily this ridge has broken down some in the last week, and the jet stream has been allowed to resort back to a more normal pattern. However, portions of Europe will have a lot of cleanup on their hands after their 2nd "1-in-100-years flood" in 11 years.
Carson City, Nevada
Posted by Ryan
Carson City was named after Johnny Carson, is a fact I just made up. Let's head off to Nevada's capital.
At 215PM, MT, Carson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 80 degrees. Weak flow aloft and equally stagnant flow at the surface will allow for light winds and sunny skies through the day today.
A disturbance over the north Pacific will reinforce a dry southwesterly flow in Nevada. Flow will come off the Sierras and from the south, which will mean two more days of sunny skies and warm temperatures in Carson City.
Tomorrow - Sunny, High 83, Low 48
Monday - Sunny, High 83, Low 49
TWC: Tomorrow - Sunny High 82, Low 47
Monday - Sunny High 82, Low 49
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny High 81, Low 45
Monday - Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 82, Low 48
NWS: Tomorrow - Sunny High 81, Low 45
Monday - Sunny High 82, Low 49
WB: Tomorrow - Sunny, High 82, Low 45
Monday - Suny, High 83, Low 46
No model data in Carson City, and Reno, the nearest site with model data, runs a little warmer than Carson. How much warmer? We will find out.
The Week Ahead 6/16/13-6/22/13
Posted by Ryan
We have a Plains-themed week, with some criss-crossing road trips. Is it time for a big heat wave across the country? We will find out together!
Sunday - Lincoln, Nebraska; Road Trip from Carson City, Nevada to Lincoln
Monday - San Antonio, Texas
Tuesday - Lawton, Oklahoma
Wednesday - Road Trip from Lawton to Dayton, Ohio
Saturday - Road Trip from Roanoke, Virginia to Muncie, Indiana