San Jose, California

We’re headed to the Bay Area for our forecast this evening. What do we have to look forward to?

At 453PM, PT, San Jose was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. San Jose just happened to be under a stray patch of clouds, as most of the rest of the South Bay was reporting clear skies. A thick layer of stratus lay just off shore and seemed foreboding for the morning along the coast.
Aloft, there is a weak ridge through the Pacific Northwest, but the chilly Pacific just to the west will be ripe for morning fog along the coast and thick ceilings off shore. San Jose, however, should be balmy and pleasant.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 60
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, a touch cooler, High 91, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 93, Low 59
Wednesday – A mainly sunny sky High 93, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with patchy low clouds and fog early on; otherwise, mostly sunny High 91, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and warm High 89, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 89, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny, High 88, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Patchy smoke in the morning. High 89, Low 61
Wednesday – Sunny, High 89, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Dry throughout the day. High 97, Low 58
Wednesday- Dry throughout the day. High 96, Low 65

You can tell the real people forecasting from the robot here. Model guidance is and has been significantly higher than what’s actually played out lately, so FIO is going way higher than what everyone else is forecasting. Here is the satellite, showing a few clouds south of San Jose. Of course, a few of them got into San Jose for our ob.

San Jose

Accurate in Anderson

The line of thunderstorms that was making its way to Anderson, IN early Friday morning juuuuust made it there, only dropping a few sprinkles in the area before it petered out. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast pretty much panned out as expected, as most of the activity on Saturday avoided the region. VW and ForecastIO dueled to a draw at the top of the standings, with VW’s forecast never more than 1 degree off.

Friday: 0.01″ of rain in morning shower. High 89, Low 74.
Saturday: High 91, Low 71.
Forecast Grade: A

Thunderstorms don’t stay on schedule

The forecast in Augusta just didn’t want to cooperate with us. We were looking for some shower and thunderstorm activity in the southeast on Friday, thanks simply to the general instability of an environment stuck in the 90s with a dew point in the 70s. There was supposed to be a weak boundary shifting through the region amplifying activity on Friday and deadening it on Saturday. That was all wrong, though. The general vagueries of summertime instabilities overwhelmed any organization that was hoped for, and only The Weather Channel correctly sussed out the right precipitation forecast. TWC didn’t win overall, however, as the top temperature forecast belonged to Accuweather and WeatherNation, who tied for the win.
Actuals: Friday – High 96, Low 73
Saturday – Rain reported, not measured, High 97, Low 77

Grade: B-C

Wausau, Wisconsin

Well, this will be a dicey forecast, as we head off for northern Wisconsin. It’s very active near Wausau, but how long will it last?

At 254PM, CT, Wausau was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with mostly clear skies. The leading edge of a swath of heavy rain over western Wisconsin lay from Owen to Pittsfield to Portage. The southern portion of this rain was embedded with severe storms around Madison and Janesville, but Wausau looked to be in for a soaking in the immediate future.
This afternoon looks to be a lost one for Wausau, with heavy rain likely thanks to a dual low complex, with the stronger center moving through Canada and an occlusal low over Siouxland, preparing to move of the east. The heavy rain at present is a result of the warm front, though the feature will occlude through Wausau overnight, and may bring some embedded rumbles of thunder. After that, however, the northern feature will do a great job of importing cooler, drier air into the region. After some early morning showers and storms, expect a pleasant couple of days for Wausau.
Tomorrow –  Early rain and thunder, giving way to a pleasant afternoon (non standard), High 84, Low 67
Monday – Mostly sunny High 81, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy early, then afternoon sunshine (early rain/storms) High 84, Low 69
Monday – Generally sunny.High 83, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with periods of clouds and sun High 86, Low 69
Monday – Nice with periods of clouds and sun High 82, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 88, Low 68
Monday – Sunny High 82, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Humid, Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly sunny in he afternoon. High 83, Low 69
Monday – Clear, High 80, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 88, Low 70
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 82, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the morning. High 84, Low 66
Monday – Clear throughout the day. high 81, Low 61

This afternoon will be a soaker in Wausau, but the good news is, it looks like they are in for a good conclusion to the weekend. Here is the radar now, with rain looming.

Wausau

Tropical Storm Darby to come perilously close to Hawaii

There are presently three tropical storm in the western Pacific, which is a pretty high concentration of tropical features. Fortunately, the Pacific Ocean is a large place without many areas that can be impacted by tropical features, but the westernmost storm, Darby, found the one island group that it could.

Darby is expected to make a brief landfall on the island of Hawai’i today, in the early afternoon local time near Pahala and Naalehu on the southern end of the island. The primary impact of this storm will be heavy rain, though wind and heavy surf are always important and noteworthy risks when discussing a tropical storm.

Darby

I’m particularly concerned by this system because of the specific threat for flash flooding it will provide. Volcanic in nature, the Hawaiian Islands are rugged, with high peaks at the center of every island in the chain. Mauna Loa lies towards the southern end of Hawai’i, and extends a ridge even further south. Most of the orographic thunderstorms on the islands lie on the northeast slopes, but Darby will bring most of her energy to the southeastern side of Mauna Loa. Those two cities I already mentioned. Pahala and Naalehu will be under significant threat of flash flooding.

Darby will continue northwest after clipping Hawai’i, but the strongest part of the storm will remain away from most of the other islands, though some of the models do indicate a turn towards Kauai, It rains often in Hawai’i, but rarely is it sustained and heavy like the storms they will be getting over the next few days, and rarely does the activity come form the direction it will come when brought on by Darby. These delicate islands will definitely feel an impact.

Anderson, Indiana

We head off to Central Indiana today, which is just outside the main dome of stifling heat sitting over the Central US, but are still feeling the effects of it themselves. How long will it stick around? Let’s take a look, shall we?

At 1153pm EDT, the temperature at Anderson, IN was 77 degrees under fair skies. A Heat Advisory is in effect from midday Friday through Saturday evening as heat indices look to push into the low 100’s over the weekend. The main dome of intense heat continues to sit over the Central Plains into the Mid-MS Valley, causing storms to ride up and over the top of the ridge, then plummets south-southeastward over the Upper Midwest and into the OH Valley. Activity shifting through WI/IL/IN currently continues its southward push until it peters out later this morning. Also keeping things active over the Southern Great Lakes is the tail end of a boundary lingering in the region from a low that’s pushed north of New England. That boundary will be less of an influence as we move into Saturday, but will be kicking off storms that will shift through the area during the afternoon/early evening hours. Saturday has the threat still lingering during the day, but odds are activity will focus both to the northwest and to the south. Humidity will be a bear both days, pushing expected heat indices into the 100-105 degree range. A good idea… just stay inside with the air conditioning and catch up on some DVR.

Friday: chance of early morning thunderstorms, convection re-appears in late afternoon. High 89, Low 73.
Saturday: Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. High 90, Low 72.

TWC: Friday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 90, Low 72.
Saturday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 91, Low 70.

AW: Friday: A thunderstorm in the afternoon. High 89, Low 72.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a thunderstorm. High 87, Low 75.

NWS: Friday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. High 91, Low 74.
Saturday: Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 90, Low 73.

WB: Friday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 87, Low 74.
Saturday: Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 87, Low 74.

WN: Friday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. High 91, Low 73.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. High 90, Low 73.

FIO: Friday: Rain in the morning and afternoon. High 91, Low 74.
Saturday: Light rain throughout the day. High 92, Low 71.

A line of potent thunderstorms is pushing its way through far northwestern Indiana, trailing back over Central Illinois and all the way up over far northeastern Iowa. It could make it down to central IN before the morning comes.
MIErad

Augusta, GA

Hey! I hope you are enjoying your Thursday night. Let’s take a look at what’s going on in Georgia.

At 953PM, ET, Augusta is reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies. The temperatures across the region were cooler than what was found throughout the Midwest, with Augusta the regional hot spot, but dew points in the 70s ensured that it was no less stuffy in the south. Isolated thunderstorms have cropped up in the soupy environment, with the nearest cluster stretching from Swainsvoro to Sandersville.
There was a broader upper level trough over the Gulfstream, but a more locally impactful feature was a low level disturbance centered over Georgia. It isn’t expected to move much, as there is little aloft to motivate the flow. There is an upper level trough in eastern Canada, and it will eject a surface perturbation emanating from the western Great Lakes ad rushing towards Augusta, arriving late tomorrow. This will amplify thunderstorms tomorrow evening across the region, but in the wake of the activity, the atmosphere will be settled enough that thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, becoming more widespread through the afternoon, High 97, Low 74
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 96, Low 76

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine.High 97, Low 72
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 99, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 96, Low 73
Saturday – Partly sunny and hot; an afternoon thunderstorm in spots High 97, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny and hot High 97, Low 73
Saturday – Mostly sunny and hot, High 98, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in he morning, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 94, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny with Patchy Fog High 97, Low 73
Saturday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 99, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 94, Low 71
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 97, Low 74

Here is a look at the radar, showing those isolated thunderstorms throughout Georgia and South Carolina.

Augusta

The heat is on in the center of the country

Atlantic City, New Jersey

The East Coast was roughed up by a few strong to severe thunderstorms today. How are we looking in Atlantic City following that rough weather?

At 1254AM, ET, Atlantic City was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies and a light west wind. Dew points were still in the 70s, so the low wasn’t going to bottom out too much, and ground fog was a possibility.
The cold front, supported by the net is still hung up in the Appalachians. The upper level trough is expected to shift through New Jersey tomorrow afternoon, unnoticed save for a more refreshing northwest breeze. High pressure will build in behind it, and while Tuesday will be a little bit stuffy, Wednesday is expected to be a much more comfortable day.Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 73
Wednesday – Much more comfortable, High 81, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed.  high 87, Low 71
Wednesday – Abundant sunshine High 80, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Abundant sunshine High 84, Low 75
Wednesday – Less humid with plenty of sunshine High 81, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 84, Low 73
Wednesday – Sunny High 81, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid, High 81, Low 73
Wednesday – Sunny, High 77, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 84, Low 73
Wednesday – Mostly Sunny High 81, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow -Light rain in the morning. High 85, Low 74
Wednesday -Partly cloudy in the morning High 79, Low 72

Interesting spread of temperature forecasts. That high tomorrow will weigh heavily on the passage of the cold front. Recent guidance is going very warm in Atlantic City. Here is the satellite imagery. Note the clouds in the Appalachians, thats where the upper level jet presently lies.
Atlantic City

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