Altoona, Pennsylvania to Coeur d’Alene, Idaho

All right everyone, we’re on the road again. The trip today is going to be a long one, from western Pennsylvania to northern Idaho. It is going to take us about 4 days to make the trip that will cover 2311 miles. This means a pace of 68mph for at least 3 days. The fourth day will last 10 hours and will be longer, but those first three days will be over after 543.7 miles. We’re enjoying the far northern end of the country just as winter makes it’s first icy incursion.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Well, I can’t tell you that this is going to be a particularly enjoyable start to our trip. In order to get to the cold temperatures I threatened in the intro of this post, you will need a system to move through the pull in the colder temperatures. We will start out dry, but that will last maybe half an hour before we intersect the northwest flank of a very active system moving towards the Mid-Atlantic. Fortunately, this system will also bring north with it plenty of warm air, so as we drive from western Pennsylvania through Ohio and to Angola, Indiana, the precipitation we will be driving through will be rain.  Then, we will break through to a windier, colder environment as we finish off the drive into the south side of Chicago, where we will stop in Markham, Illinois.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
A trailing low, the one in charge of pumping cold air into the region, will be doing its job on Wednesday. There is a little bit of precipitation associated with it, and this will definitely be snow. We’ll be behind the cold front as we begin the day on Wednesday, and we should be able to stay dry through the Twin Cities. From that point, though, the chilly temperatures make for a conducive environment for flurry activity, which will be possible through central Minnesota, to the town of Osakis, between St. Cloud and Alexandria, where we will call it a day.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
A tendril of high pressure is going to be building into the  High Plains towards the end of the week. We will see some more flurries from Osakis to the North Dakota border, but from that point forward, we’ll be able to enjoy the vast horizon, as we drive westward. We’ll make it to Montana, and stop at Diamond Ring road near Terry.

DAY FOUR (Friday)
The next round of snw will move into Montana while we sleep, and there could be a ground blizzard through the eastern 2/3 of the state, before we reach the mountains. This could be a serious problem for us, as we may need to hold off driving on I-90, should the Montana State Patrol shut the road down. That will depend on the wind, because the snow won’t be terribly heavy. The wind will die down when we reach the mountains, but the snow intensity will pick up. We’re going to have to play it safe on this drive, as it’s going to be snowy all the way to Coeur d’Alene.

Coeur d'Alene

Rome rains

The next wave in a very active pattern was on its way towards Rome over the weekend. North Georgia saw temperatures climb a little bit on Saturday, before the system got there, but then the pain came that night and lasted through Sunday. The end of the weekend was way less fun than the warmer beginning, as over an inch of rain fell on the city, and temperatures lingered in the 40s throughout the day on Sunday. It was a pretty nasty day, especially by Georgia’s standards, but if there is any positive, it’s that Victoria-Weather ran away with a victory, thanks to our proper anticipation of temperature trends, given the rain.
Saturday – .27 inches of rain, High 51, Low 30
Sunday – 1.09 inches of rain, High 46, Low 42

Grade B-C

Coeur d’Alene, Idaho

We’ve been so focused on the weather out east lately, I think it’s a time we head out west for a spell.

At 656PM, MT, Coeur d’Alene was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 31 degrees. The serene weather in Coeur d’Alene belied the weather just to the east, where snow was intense enough that a winter storm warning had been issued for the mountains of northern Idaho.  A broad upper level trough is shifting quickly away from the region, and the surface feature will reflect that, with clearing coming even to the mountains by sunrise tomorrow.
All of the weather in the region will be based off of that broad trough. The region of snow in the area right now will move out to lead to mostly sunny skies tomorrow, but a lobe of instability will develop at the back end of the trough generating another area of mountain snow and valley rain for Tuesday. The bulk of the activity will pass south of Coeur d’Alene, but still close enough that it needs to be in the forecast.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 29, Low 20
Tuesday – Scattered  snow showers. High 25, Low 18

TWC: Tomorrow –  Cloudy. A few flurries or snow showers possible. High 30, Low 21
Tuesday – Sunny skies High 23, Low 18

AW: Tomorrow – Chilly with intervals of clouds. Partly sunny, and sunshine High 31, Low 21
Tuesday – Partly sunny and cold High 27, Low 16

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of snow after 5pm. Mostly cloudy High 28, Low 22
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 23, Low 16

WB: Tomorrow: Partly sunny in the morning, Becoming cloudy. A chance of showers in the afternoon. High 32, Low 25
Tuesday – Party sunny, High 29, Low 20

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers, High 28, Low 23
Tuesday – Partly cloudy 23, Low 16

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. HIgh 32, Low 21
Tuesday – Light snow until morning. High 27, Low 14

I guess I’m looking at the same data as FIO. It will be interesting to see the time of the snow, which is indeed falling in the mountains east of town at this late hour.



Lancaster, Pennsylvania to Altoona, Pennsylvania

We’re looking at a short, cross state trek through the Keystone State for our forecast today. The drive under normal condition is a winding one through the Appalachians, covering 171 miles and lasting 2 1/2 hours. If the weather cooperates, the rate of speed will be about 65mph. I don’t know if I have dropped enough hints, but the weather isn’t likely to be great.,+PA/Altoona,+PA/@40.407159,-77.9757789,9z/am=t/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c6248b917214b9:0xb46790d030dbd2d6!2m2!1d-76.3055144!2d40.0378755!1m5!1m1!1s0x89cb91588ee54d01:0xaeb8592c07c6767d!2m2!1d-78.3947359!2d40.5186809

There is a sloppy occluded/cold front moving quickly through the Great Lakes and Midwest today, and it will arrive in Pennsylvania overnight, ensuring a mix of precipitation statewide through the early morning hours. When we leave at 10AM, it will be winding down from west to east, but don’t be surprised to see some wet snow, perhaps moderate initially in Lancaster. The snow will mostly be at an end around Carlisle, save for in the higher western exposures, where lake effect breezes will continue. It will be done snowing heavily in Altoona when we arrive, but don’t be surprised if we see some additional wet flakes through the afternoon after we check in.

Altoona, Pennsylvania

We are going to western Pennsylvania for tonight’s forecast. Now is the time of year that they need to be constantly on the look out for flurries.

At 208AM, ET, Altoona was reporting overcast skies and some flurries. Altoona is the sole location reporting any snow, and a look at the satellite and radar wasn’t particularly revelatory either. Models suggest a lake effect fetch, and low topped, light snow would fail to show up on either satellite or radar imagery. There will continue to be a threat for these light snow showers until the prevailing flow switches to become more southwesterly.
When that happens, however, it will be because of an approaching cold front moving through the Upper Midwest. There will be a weak, broad wave rippling on the north side of a stronger jet streak running south of Pennsylvania. The boundary moving through Pennsylvania will as a result be diffuse and disorganized. Rather than a line of snow showers, it will be an indistinct swath of snow, without any embedded squalls or heavy snow bands. It will move through quickly with a quick couple of inches possible  overnight Sunday to Monday before the boundary kicks out of town thanks to the snow’s persistence. A deeper trough around the Front Range of the Rockies will be manufacturing a stronger system to trail this weaker one, and this new system will arrive later in the week. During the valid period of this forecast, however, its advance will lead to a slight warm up on Monday.
Tomorrow – Light snow early, then more moderate snow in the evening, High 40, Low 34
Monday – Morning snow, 1-2″ possible in total High 41, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. (late rain/snow) High 44, Low 33
Monday – A shower of rain or wet snow possible early. Overcast. High 42, Low 36

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (late snow) High 43, Low 31
Monday – A flurry early on in the morning; otherwise, cloudy High 44, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (Late rain/snow), High 42, Low 30
Monday – A slight chance of snow showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 43, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, rain and snow late. High 41, Low 31
Monday – Cloudy in the morning. Then becoming partly sunny (early snow) High 42, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (Late rain/snow), High 43, Low 30
Monday – Mostly cloudy with chance of light snow showers, High 43, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 42, Low 32
Monday – Light rain until morning. High 39, Low 31

Sorry for that sort of word salad of a forecast. It’s an interesting pattern, though. Disorganized, but there is a pattern. Tough to see on the satellite though, as there is a lot of high cloud activity across the country, and the northern, weaker system is bleeding into the strong, southwestern feature.


Cloudy and consistent

We went with a new video format for the forecast in Dayton on the first, and it looks like it paid off! The weather was destined t be cloudy, as Dayton found itself in a difficult to clear swath of low to midlevel clouds.  There wasn’t much degradation to the cloud deck on Saturday, which meant that the diurnal temperature variation only jumped from 5 to 7 degrees. That’s a little unpleasant,  but at least it was above freezing, and at least Victoria-Weather was able to claim victory.
Actuals: Friday – High 39, Low 34
Saturday – High 39, Low 32

Grade: A-C

Dayton, Ohio to Rome, Georgia

Would it surprise you to know that Rome is actually a shade west of Dayton? It did me! We are cutting across a couple of narrow states, so despite covering 4 states, our drive will last about 7 hours and cover 468 miles. Expect a pace of about 68mph as we make our way through the Appalachans, and near a part of the country that has been ravaged by wildfires.

Just in the short time since we put together a forecast for Rome earlier this evening, the GFS, the more aggressive model this afternoon, has slowed a that is presently organizing in Texas way down. We all had a forecast for rain in Rome by the end of the day, after a vast but fairly weak ridge occupied the region in the morning. Instead of rain in Rome when we get there I think we are going to instead see a few high clouds as they begin to filter in. It’s definitely going to rain overnight and extensively on Sunday, but the trip through Appalachia will be dry and scenic.


Rome, Georgia

No, not Rome, Italy. If it were, we would be going for an onsite forecast. Instead, we will be forecasting for the town in northwest Georgia, which is just fine in it’s own right.

At 953PM, ET, Rome was reporting  a temperature of 40 degrees with clear skies. This is a welcome change from the rain seen earlier in the week, and the rain itself is a welcome abatement of the wildfires that have been raging to the north.
A well organized area of high pressure is building into the region to begin the weekend, and it will ensure a nice day. A deep trough is sliding through the southern Rockies towards Texas, and at least for Saturday, it will help warm things up ever so slightly thanks to the southerly flow ahead of the trough. Of course, that same trough is likely to ruin Sunday. Rain will fill in along the warm front, which will not lift much further north than Atlanta on Sunday. The heaviest axis of rain will set up from Lake Charles, Louisiana northeast right through Rome. There could be a little shower activity before midnight Saturday, and rain will be somewhat light early Sunday morning, but Sunday afternoon is liable to be a washout.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with increasing clouds and some late showers, High 55, Low 32
Sunday – All day rain expected, High 47, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with some showers in the afternoon High 55, Low 35
Sunday – Rain. High 49, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower in places in the afternoon High 54, Low 32
Sunday – Occasional rain High 49, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 36
Sunday – Showers likely before 1pm, then rain likely after 1pm. Cloudy High 49, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of rain in the afternoon, High 53, Low 35
Sunday – Showers likely in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. High 49, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 54, Low 36
Sunday – Cloudy with light showers likely, High 48, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the evening. High 54, Low 36
Sunday – Rain throughout the day. High 46, Low 44

These storms won’t be severe like the ones from earlier this week, so any rain in the Smokeys will be greatly appreciated. Some of the clouds that are the actual reason the mountains have their name are showing u on Satellite.


Santa Ana’s Set To Slam SoCal

Hello readers! Tonight I’m coming at you from Southern California! The geography of the region often leads to many types of micro-climates, as evidenced by the nightly weather reports on the 6pm news going from Coastal Areas to Inland Valleys to High Desert. It’s quite the task to piece together forecasts for all of these varied times of locations. This weekend is no different, as another regional weather feature is about to take place, the Santa Ana Winds

The Santa Ana’s occur when a high pressure is found over the Great Basin, and helped along if there’s a low pressure system of some sort off the SoCal coastline. The pressure gradient speeds along the air from the higher elevation areas in NV/far inland CA to the coastline, and often times gets amplified as it gets squeezed through mountain passes, where winds can be sustained at over 40mph with gusts of 60-80mph at times. Given the fact that the air also heats up as it descends (at about 5F per 1000 feet), the relative humidity typically plummets during these events, adding fuel to any wildfires that happen to be occurring at the same time (to disastrous results). These winds are expected to last for a couple of days before starting to subside on Sunday/Monday. Hopefully no fires pop up and everybody has a safe weekend!

Here is a image from NWS San Diego that shows the peak winds expected over the next couple of days. As you can see, the higher elevations and mountain passes encounter the strongest winds, with the areas around Laguna Beach and Santa Ana (see how it gets its name now?) also seeing higher values near the coast.


Dayton, Ohio

Tomorrow – Overcast, High 40, Low 34
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, High 42, Low 31

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies. High 42, Low 34
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. High 43, Low 29

AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy and breezy High 42, Low 31
Saturday – Periods of clouds and sun High 41, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 39, low 32
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 41, Low 28

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 41, Low 35
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 40, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 39, Low 32
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 28

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 44, Low 33
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 43, Low 29

There you go. I hope you appreciated the change in taping technology! I know I sure do.

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