Lynchburg, Virginia

Happy Sunday, everyone, shall we start the week off with a little knowledge about the week ahead?

At 354PM, ET, Lynchburg was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with overcast skies and light rain, Radar was awash with light rain throughout the region, and it appears as though Lynchburg will be unable to break out of the much for a while. Interestingly, and despite the rain seen regionwide, model guidance doesn’t have much inkling of the precipitation ingested into the forecast, however the vorticity maximum attributable for the rain in the area looks to dampen  out by Monday morning, suggesting that rain will lighten up by that time as well.
The jet structure that allowed the development of the wave bringing rain to the region today will level off over the next 48 hours, producing a laminar, west to east flow across the region. This should suspend any threat for rain in Lynchburg, however it will keep some mid to high level overcast in the region throughout the forecast period. The good news is that sustained westerlies will help maintain slightly warmer temperatures than is usually expected this time of year.
Tomorrow – Overcast with some early rain, High 56, Low 36
Tuesday – Overcast, but even warmer, High 61, Low 41

TWC: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, High 59,, Low 33
Tuesday – Partly cloudy.  High 64, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Not as cool with intervals of clouds and sun High 60, Low 34
Tuesday – Some sun, then turning cloudy and warm High 63, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 34
Tuesday – Mostly sunny,  High 63, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 38
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 58, Low 34
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 61, Low 38
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 62, Low 42

Clearly, I am less optimistic, perhaps because the model guidance doesn’t give me a lot of confidence that the rain is being well handled. I mean, look at this radar!

A resurgent weekend

Last weekend, we put together a forecast for Terre Haute that started off a bit snowy and cool, with a rebound scheduled for Sunday. It went off without a hitch. There were a few flakes on Saturday, though nothing that accumulated or caused significant problems for residents of the area, and temperatures bumped all the way back up to the low 40s by the time that Sunday rolled around. Forecasts, for the most part, were good across the board, but Accuweather stands out, because they were almost perfect.
Actuals: Saturday, Trace of snow, High 36, Low 23
Sunday – High 41, Low 18

Grade: A-C

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Western Pennsylvania is home to an inordinately high number of famous meteorologists and football players. Something to do with the mountains and snow, in both cases, I’m sure.

At 151PM, ET, Pittsburgh was reporting a temperature of 27 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. While it wasn’t snowing in Pittsburgh, it was still a distinct possibility for the remainder of the day. A stronger system that brought snow to the Mid-Atlantic yesterday has now shifted off shore, but it is a part of a broader upper level trough, and northwest winds off the Great Lakes were fueling some lake effect snows throughout the region in the absence of an organized synoptic feature.
Troughing will continue through the upper Ohio Valley through the day today, tomorrow, and most of the early part of Saturday before a thermal ridge presses into the region. This should redirect flow to become more southwesterly and eliminate the threat for those flurries, while also bring about some warmer temperatures after the forecast period expires.
Tomorrow – Isolated flurries, High 28, Low 13
Saturday – A few flurries, warmer, High 39, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow -Cloudy skies. A few flurries or snow showers possible High 31, Low 20
Saturday – Mostly cloudy skies. A few flurries or snow showers possible.High 42, Low 25

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cold; snow showers in the afternoon, accumulating a coating to an inch High 31, Low 17
Saturday – A snow shower in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 39, Low 26

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 28, Low 15
Saturday – A slight chance of snow before 8am, then a slight chance of snow showers between 8am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy,  High 35, Low 22

WB: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness, a slight chance of snow showers.High 29, Low 18
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, High 36, Low 26

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers, High 28, Low 15
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with chance of light snow showers, High 35, Low 22

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 31, Low 18
Saturday – Partly cloudy until evening. High 40, Low 22

Some very different opinions on temperatures, but this what happens in mountains, cloudy environments. We’ll see where those temperatures fall. It will depend on the clouds and snow. Here is a look at the bigger picture right now.

Betrayed by the lows

When a forecast calls for a front to move through town, it seems like the primary issue will revolve around the timing, trying to establish when the high temperature will occur and then extrapolating the plunge in temperature, leading to a messy high and low on back to back days. Not in Baltimore, though! No, the problems revolved exclusively around the low temperatures, both on Wednesday and on Thursday, which were much cooler both the day after the frontal passage, and the day after that! The rain ended late, too, which usually would mean a warmer overnight low on the next day, so you will have to forgive some universally misguided forecasts. The National Weather Service was able to sneak in a victory, however, thanks to a less bad forecast, and also being one of only two outlets to have rain continuing into Wednesday morning.
Actuals: Wednesday – Trace of rain, High 56, Low 37
Thursday – High 49, Low 32

Grade: C-D

Baltimore, Maryland to Terre Haute, Indiana

Here is another road trip, just ready for us to take it. We’re going to head from Indiana to Baltimore, a route that is almost entirely due east. We’ll cover the route in one 10 hour day at a pace of about 67mph, with a total of 671 miles accounting for the distance between the two towns. Shall we explore the highways and byways?

The back end of a cold front that brought snow to the southeastern US did the same to the Mid-Atlantic yesterday, and a good chunk of the eastern Seaboard now has a fresh white blanket. Meanwhile, the next trough is getting ready to pivot through the Great Lakes, with a few isolated snow showers moving through the Great Lakes. Here is the good news, though. The snow won’t be far enough south to clip Indiana or Ohio as we drive through those states, and the areas east of the Appalachians, like as we arrive in Baltimore, will have already wave good bye to the snow of the last few days. It comes down to whether or not the departments if transportation in the area have cleared the roads as to whether or not we will have a good drive on Sunday. I think we’ll be ok.

Terre Haute, Indiana

All right, I’ve been putting this off long enough… How about a forecast for Indiana!

At 1253AM, ET, Terre Haute was reporting a temperature of 23 degrees with clear skies. A wave was moving through the Great Lakes, producing a little bit of snow, but generally less than had been originally forecast, and any thought of any accumulating snow in Terre Haute should be put out of mind by now.
A sharp, short wave trough would provide all the makings of a good clipper with a couple inches of snow for most of Indiana, however with a strong jet down in the southern United States intercepting any moisture that would be available for this feature, it will simply make for a breezy night. The sharp trough will shift eastward and the flow will become a bit more zonal in Terre Haute. The warm up won’t be dramatic, but it will be there by Sunday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with some sun late and a very isolated flurry early. High 33, Low 22
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered snow showers during the morning. Then partly to mostly cloudy for the afternoon High 33, Low 24
Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 42, Low 20

AW: Tomorrow – A little morning snow with little or no accumulation; otherwise, mostly cloudy and chilly High 35, Low 22
Sunday – Mostly sunny and not as cold High 41, Low 18

NWS: Tomorrow – Snow likely, mainly before 8am. Patchy fog between 8am and 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, High 32, Low 23
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 39, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog until midday. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow until midday then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 33, Low 24
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 41, Low 20

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light snow, High 32, Low 23
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 39, Low 18

FIO: Tomorrow –  Foggy in the morning. High 36, Low 24
Sunday – Mostly cloudy until evening.High 43, Low 20

A little bit of snow is showing up on radar in northern Indiana, but you can see, it doesn’t look very threatening further to the south.

Coming soon…

The holidays are approaching, and every forecast carries a little bit of extra weight with it. What’s on the docket in the next few days?

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Lynchburg, Virginia

Dothan, Alabama to Baltimore, Maryland

It’s a day and a half from southern Alabama to the shores of Chesapeake Bay, and with a cold front dragging through the country and cold air filling in everywhere, that’s not going to be as dramatic a change as it might usually be in December. Dothan won’t be much better than Baltimore! The towns are 890 miles apart, and the drive will cover the ground at a pace of 64mph. As I noted, it’s a day and a half between the two towns, with Wednesday, the full day of driving, covering 514 miles.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

There is really no reason for this, but this is the type of pattern that drives me nuts. A cold front, now distended and much less active, will lie off the coast from New England and the mid Atlantic, but will be a stalled stationary boundary wrapping from the Carolinas and southwest through the Gulf Coast states. You get this set up, and then it never seems to want to change. So that’s where we’ll be at. Rain is likely in Dothan as we get going, and then that won’t even ever really change as we head through Georgia and into the Carolinas. The rain will be fairly light, with some breaks, but all the pavement we see will be damp, and it’s unlikely we get any sunlight. We’ll make it to Thomasville, North Carolina, which is in the Winston-Salem/Greensboro area.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
We’ll break out into the sun by the time we reach Richmond, but then we will be confronted with different concerns, namely a brisk northwest wind and chillier air temperatures. It probably won’t reach freezing until the DC area, and even then, it will be a close call, and fortunately, there has been plenty of time between the rain and the temperature drop in this part of the world, so we shouldn’t have any slick roadways. Keep both hands on the wheel because of those winds, and don a jacket when you start exploring the Inner Harbor.

Baltimore, Maryland

Tomorrow – Early morning rain, and then mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 42
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 45, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. . High 58, Low 43
Thursday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 48, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with clouds moving away to leave sunshine High 60, Low 46
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 49, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 8am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny,  High 54, Low 41
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 46, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 57, Low 39
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 46, low 38

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 53, Low 41
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 35

FiO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 54, Low 39
Thursday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 45, Low 34

Weather Wayback…. Summer in the desert

This is almost like a self inflicted punishment on myself. We’ve just had our first snow of the season in the Twin Cities, and I am sitting in the wayback machine, looking at Bend, Oregon, from the middle of July. It was scorching hot shortly after the 4th of July, with temperatures skying into the mid 90s on the 5th and 6th of July, which was a hair warmer than all forecasters suggested, but The Weather Channel had narrowly secured victory back on this July steamer.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 96, Low 56
Thursday – High 96, Low 60

Grade: B-D

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