Happy 4th of July, everyone. The neighborhood fireworks are rocking my residence in celebration. We can celebrate the country by taking a cross country trip, which will be completed in 4 1/2 days, covering 2539 miles. That means our four full days will be consumed by 564 miles, thanks to the 70+mph afforded by these coronavirus emptied interstates.
DAY ONE (Sunday)
The first day of our trek is definitely going to be one that makes us wonder why anyone leaves the southwestern US. Not a cloud will be in the sky, save for one or two rising above the San Bernadino range very early in the day. The sweltering heat of southern Arizona may remind us of the rationale for living somewhere else, though, an our day will end in the outskirts of southeastern Tucson.
DAY TWO (Monday) There will be some thunderstorms along our route on Monday, that’s one piece of news. The other piece of that news is that those storms will pop up after we’ve made our way through the region. The threat will come around El Paso, but that will fire up in the evening, as we are checking in for the night in Ozona, further to the east.
DAY THREE (Tuesday) Driving through the San Antonio and Austin areas should be a pretty easy task, but closer to Houston, and perhaps as we pass into Louisiana, things may get a bit dicey iingering showers and storms associated with a lingering disturbance well east of our route (and the United States mainland, actually) and the ever present sea breeze could lead o a stray shower as we watch the show, wrapping things up ion Jennings, Louisiana, between Lake Charles and LAfayette.
DAY FOUR (Wednesday) The drive along the Gulf Coast will be comfortably familiar for anyone who lives there. Quiet if hot and humid during the day, with an increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms as the instability gets to be too much. So after about 2, probably from Mobile eastward, we’ll have a real threat for showers and storms. Nothing too bad, but something that will definitely be there. We’ll stop in Madison, Florida, with a few hours to go on Thursday.
DAY FIVE (Thursday) Some low pressure might organize late next week off the Carolina coast, which could provide some focus for thunderstorms in the southeast. IT’s for this reason that I would say thunderstorms might actually pop up in the morning in those last ew hours of our drive, rather than just with the peak heat. By the time we reach Jacksonville at the Atlantic coast, however, I think that storm threat will greatly abate. Stinkin’ hot, though.
Never underestimate the ability of a high dew point to hold temperatures back. That was the case in College Station on Wednesday, with dew points in the 70s throughout the entire 24 (actually 48 hour period of the forecast), but another cause was a particularly vigorous onshore breeze that even let in a few drops of mist late in the day on Wednesday. Temperatures were a degree or two cooler than most outlets anticipated as a result. Generally, it was a decent forecast, though, with The Weather Channel and Accuweather claiming a tie. Actuals: Tuesday – High 92. Low 81 Wednesday – High 94, Low 79
We’ve made it to the middle of summer, and the biggest summer holiday of them all. Some fireworks displays are still on, while others are cancelled out of an abundance of caution with the continued coronavirus pandemic. Whether or not we will get the patriotic displays, the atmosphere is certainly going to feel as it should on the 4th of July.
It’s going to be very hot for a lot of the country for Independence day, with 90s blanketing much of the country, save for the Pacific Northwest, where significantly cooler weather will take hold.
The overall pattern isn’t terribly strong, atmospherically, given there is a mountain range between the two air masses. There isn’t a vibrant jet structure to give rise to a solid dome of high pressure, but there isn’t organized low pressure either. Instead, we are looking at a pattern that will rely heavily on lower level features, which are provided more by the physical features at the surface than patterns in the atmosphere.
There is low pressure off shore, and sea breezes and weak oceanic circulation will lead to showers and storms along the east and Gulf coasts tomorrow. Lee troughing under zonal, west to east flow will lead to enough instability to lead to strong storms in the Plains, especially the northern High Plains, as noted in tomorrow’s SPC outlook map.
Large swaths of the country are going to be able to enjoy time on the lake or at the cabin, or perhaps watching fireworks displays from their decks or balconies. Socially distanced, of course.
Was it just me, or did June fly by? Maybe it was the extended vacation I took in the middle of the month, huh? Well, one outlet that appreciated it was the robot army of Forecast.io who thrived in the shorter session. Way to go, robot army!
East Texas is always a haven of interesting weather. How interesting will it be this week?
At 1253PM, CT, College Station was reporting a temperature of 90 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A brisk southerly wind imported moisture from the Gulf, leading to a dew point in the mid 70s, and the general cloudiness of the region. Low pressure in the lee of the Rockies will trend towards dissipation over the next 48 hours, which will snuff out the brisk south winds, leading to a much clearer, and likely much warmer mid-week, even as moisture lingers in the atmosphere. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 78 Wednesday – Hotter and sunny, High 97, Low 78
TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy, High 93, Low 79 Wednesday – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals, High 95, Low 79
AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 93, Low 80 Wednesday – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 93, Low 80
NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 94, Low 79 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 78
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 80 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 80
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 79 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 78
FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 94, Low 78 Wednesday – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 96, Low 77
Oppressive. Here is a look at the satellite imagery, with clouds across Gulf Coast Texas.
This forecast, issued on the 11th for Fayetteville, came so long ago that Tropical Storm Cristobal was still mentioned in the text. While this forecast was for North Carolina, the tropical feature wasn’t a major influence on the forecast, but a lingering cold front and a return of hot humid air was. The Weather Channel was the top forecaster way back in the middle of the month. Actuals: June 12th – .02 inches of rain, High 83, Low 69 June 13th – High 84, Low 66
This has been a weird month for me. It seems strange during this period in history to say I’ve been very busy, but those are the facts. You might not remember what west Texas was like back in the beginning of the month, but I can tell you that, unequivocally, San Angelo was hot, particularly on June 8th. That wasn’t a big surprise though. In fact, none of the hot, sunny weather was a surprise during our forecast period, as everyone came through with pretty good numbers. Nobody was better than Weatherbug, though, gaining a victory. Actuals: June 8th – High 104, Low 71 June 9th – High 96, Low 75
The tornado season in the southern Plains was a lot quieter than in recent years, and was quieter than normal in general. This is welcome news to all, certainly. We are through May, the peak of the season around Oklahoma City, and well into June, often the time of year things peak in the Upper Midwest. We had some derecho activity in the Black Hills and High Plains in recent weeks, with strong thunderstorms tied in with Cristobal closer to the Great Lakes, but the beginning of June hasn’t been terribly traumatic either.
Strong thunderstorms will be possible as long as there is heat and humidity, however the organization for a large scale tornado outbreak requires some clashing of air masses, which only happens when cold air can invade from Canada. This year, those incursions haven’t been as regular, and 90 degree temperatures seem to be here to say.
For posterity, here is a look at the last bit of a legitimate jet streak that we will see through the rest of the model output, and perhaps for several weeks. This map represents tomorrow morning.
It will create some severe weather in the Dakotas tomorrow, with a little bit of a cool down behind a cold front, but then, the jet and the cold air will reside comfortably in Canada and the Arctic.
There are a couple of Fayettevilles of note in this country of ours. For today, we will visit the North Carolinian version of the two.
At 953PM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 76, with an incredibly sultry dew point of 73. The exhaustingly humid air was ahead of a line of storms extending from Raleigh to Norman and west towards Norwood, along which there were some severe gusts. These storms would likely inch into Fayetteville before the night was through. The wet weather is tied to a slowing cold front, associated with the remnants of Cristobal, who is now moving through Hudson Bay towards Baffin Island. This will lend to some lingering showers and storms in and around eastern North Carolina tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. Robust surface high pressure is moving in from the north, but an upper level trough is going to generate a surface perturbation that will ripple along the southern flank of the ridge, and will reinvigorate the threat for showers and storms in eastern North Carolina on Saturday. Unfortunately, that truly crisp air looks unlikely to make a lasting impression. Tomorrow – Isolated storms, otherwise muggy and mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 74 Saturday – Mostly cloudy, chances of rain and storms, High 83, Low 68
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 82, Low 70 Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 84, Low 64
AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover and humid with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; watch for flooding High 83, Low 72 Saturday – Cloudy most of the time with a shower or heavy thunderstorm in the area; watch for flooding High 85, Low 67
NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly cloudy High 83, Low 72 Saturday – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Partly sunny High 84, Low 67
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 81, Low 72 Saturday – Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 82, Low 67
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 83, Low 71 Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 84, Low 67
FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning. High 82, Low 71 Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 82, Low 66
Some mixed messaging with the forecasts to round out the week. Rain? No? We’ll see! The radar for tonight continues to look active, though.