North Carolina is the home of many large cities, and is often the destination for our forecast trips. Today, though, we get to go to the largest stop in town.
At 1052PM, ET, Charlotte was reporting a temperature of 65 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A remnant of a surface feature in the Mid-Atlantic was pulling away from the Washington DC area, and there was a chance for a little bit of clearing overnight in Charlotte. A secondary area of development lies over the lower Mississippi Valley, however, and it projects to ensure that the Carolinas will remain active each of the next two days.
A dual jet structure is going to help ensure Charlotte’s instability. A stronger jet with a sharper trough will act as a destabilizing force for the northern Appalachians, and will induce an onshore flow throughout the Carolinas. Thanks in part to a southern jet with its exit region over the Mississippi Delta, this onshore flow will manifest in showers and isolated storms over the Piedmont. Low pressure will organize and move quickly through the southeast thanks to the shortwaved nature of the pattern. The southern wave will hook up with the broader northern trough and stall in North Carolina early on Tuesday. Expect rain and thunderstorms to linger across the region in a much more persistent manner than they will on Monday, but with some clearing later in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 66
Tuesday – Showers and thunderstorms High 79, Low 61
TWC: Tomorrow – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms, High 83, Low 64
Tuesday – Scattered thunderstorms, High 81, Low 65
AW: Tomorrow – Clouds giving way to some sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 82, Low 66
Tuesday – Mainly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm High 79, Low 63
NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 67
Tuesday – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 64
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms High 79, Low 67
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 78, Low 64
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 82, Low 68
Tuesday – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Storms, High 75, Low 57
FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the afternoon. High 82, Low 67
Tuesday – Light rain until evening. High 80, Low 65
It will be interesting to see how rain fills in across the area. There is quite a bit of difference in the model guidance from NAM to GFS. I’m leaning NAM, which offers more breaks, but both do indicate rain each of the next two days. Here is the satellite, showing some clearing west of Charlotte.