Gulfport, Mississippi to Macon, Georgia

Only a one-day trip today, from the Gulf Coast to Central Georgia. Will the Southeast be quiet as we make our way to the Peach State for a weekend getaway? Let’s see!

High pressure is found throughout the Southeast today, and should be a fog-free morning as we head out of Gulfport towards Mobile, AL. No afternoon showers and storms are expected along the route, so it should be a quiet and sun-filled day for the entire route! Easy peasy!

Temperature Quirk

Well the scattered thunderstorms expected to be dancing around San Antonio on Thursday did indeed dance around the city and spare them from some evening downpours. What was most surprising was that the temperature spiked to 87 degrees, which was pecular when delving deeper into the data. It went form 82 to at 2pm to 87 at 236pm down to 84 at 3pm. Not sure what caused the spike, maybe a bit of an extended period of sun amongst the mostly cloudy skies? Who knows. All we know is that Accuweather took home a narrow victory.

Tuesday: High 87, Low 62.
Wednesday: High 87, Low 54.
Forecast Grade: C-F

Tornado drops in Ohio

Earlier this evening, a rogue cell ahead of a large swath of rain showers dropped a tornado east of Dayton, and moved back to the northwest (!) to the north of Dayton. We had thunderstorms in the forecast, but not tornadoes!

The cell didn’t look very impressive on radar.

The system featured quite a bit of rotation, and the center of low pressure was not far from Dayton, and there was enough shear to produce this one tornadic cell. Indeed, there was a tornado out of that little cell, and given its location near populated areas, it was captured on film. Here is a picture of it from WLWT


VIa WLWT and Jessica Dunn

Stronger cells and stronger tornadoes were also an issue from Georgia to the Carolinas, including this twister in North Carolina.

Dayton, Ohio

Let’s head out for a forecast in southwestern Ohio. Shall we?

At 756PM, ET, Dayton was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.  A sharp, late season trough over the Great Lakess was producing a surface area of low pressure in the lower Ohio Valley, while a leading band of precipitation ran from Virginia southward as a surface low was amplifying instability in that area. Ohio found itself between the two features, but that was not to be a long lived situation.
The broader, upper level low will shift from being centered over Illinois east towards Ohio. As the coastal feature shifts off shore by the early afternoon, the Gulf will be opened and moisture will flood northward. Expect widespread showers across Dayton through most of the afternoon on Wednesday and throughout the day on Thursday as the bloated feature drifts eastward. The best threat for heavy rain, or even an isolated thunderstorm will be late Wednesday when the center of circulation moves overhead. Thursday will see much lighter precipitation with wrap around moisture falling as drizzle.
Tomorrow – Rain with an embedded thunderstorm, mostly in the afternoon and evening, High 68, Low 55
Thursday – Light rain, High 64, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon.  High 71, Low 58
Thursday –  Cloudy with occasional rain showers. High 67. Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Not as warm with periods of rain and a thunderstorm High 69, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly cloudy and cool with a few showers High 64, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. High 67, Low 57
Thursday – A chance of showers. Cloudy, High 66, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 67, Low 58
Thursday – Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers, High 64, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with showers, High 66, Low 57
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers High 66, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the afternoon. High 71, Low 59
Thursday – Light rain until evening.High 66, Low 58

If this was the winter, Dayton would be in for a great deal of snow, thanks to the slow moving nature of this system, and the temperature change would be much more pronounced. Instead, it’s just going to be gray and dull. Here is the satellite, with clouds across most of the region, but none of those bubbly rain clouds over the Dayton area….for now.

San Antonio, Texas

Today we head off to the heart of Texas where some of my relatives reside, San Antonio! As we draw closer and closer to summer, let’s see how warm it’s getting down in the Lone Star State!

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at San Antonio, TX was 72 degrees under overcast skies. While high pressure is pushing south from the Northern High Plains, a mid-level disturbance is working its way through CO/NM and looks to swing through TX over the next 24 hours. Scattered storms are already firing over Western TX and look to push eastward throughout the day, bringing some inclement weather to the San Antonio weather in the afternoon and early-evening hours. It’s a quick moving system so the area should be cleared by late evening as high pressure continues to build over the state overnight into Wednesday. Wednesday will be warmer and sunny, so a pleasant day looks to be in the store as dew points will be 15-20 degrees lower than Tuesday! Enjoy!

Tuesday: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High 78, Low 65.
Wednesday: Sunny and warmer. High 86, Low 60.

TWC: Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 80, Low 64.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 86, Low 57.

AW: Tuesday: A p.m. thunderstorm in spots. High 82, Low 66.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and less humid. High 86, Low 56.

NWS: Tuesday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 82, Low 65.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 58.

WB: Tuesday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 77, Low 64.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 82, Low 57.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 82, Low 68.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 59.

FIO: Tuesday: Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 81, Low 59.
Wednesday: Light rain overnight and in the afternoon. High 71, Low 57.

Here we see many showers and thunderstorms off to the northwest of San Antonio and generally headed in their direction. Could be a stormy day tomorrow for the area before clearing out midweek.

No changes coming

It’s been a chilly, rainy week across the middle of the country. It’s also been getting warmer and warmer out west as summer bears down on the Pacific Coast. I wanted to see if there is going to be a respite in the near future.

Well, no.

Most of the country will continue to be clobbered by rain as the upper level pattern remains relentless. There will continue to be areas of low pressure developing from the central and southern Plains to the southeast, asbroad upper level troughing simply refuses to leave. Towards the beginning of June, the stronger jet components will diminish, but troughing at the upper levels will continue.

Oh, and you know what upper level troughing means.

Cold, right in the middle of the country. And then, in the west it will remain warm, exasperating snow melt in that area. One area that benefits overall is the East Coast, which will enjoy southerly flow through most of the next two weeks.

Most of the country has too much water

Almost every region of the country has some sort of advisory for flooding, be it river flooding or flash flooding or something. 

Much f the country, particularly those parts in the Appalachians down towards the central Gulf Coast, and spots from the Ozarks to the western Great Lakes are all under flood advisories. These are all due to all the rain these areas have seen. Watch out along the coast, because this rain is still coming.

It looks pretty dry out west, doesn’t it? What’s going on there? Well, this is a carryover from a snowy winter, and now that spring temperatures are on the rise, there is rapid snow melt, leading to the engorging of mountain streams and rivers.

If you see a flooded roadway, especially one you aren’t otherwise familiar with, don’t try t traverse it. That is the deadliest mistake most often made in flood situations.

Lawton, Oklahoma to Tucson, Arizona

That was fun, let’s do it again! This time, the trip will route out of Lawton and head towards Arizona. This is a lonely drive, but at least it will only last a day and a half. Lawton and Tucson are only 867 miles apart, which we will cover at a pace of 63.1mph. This is what happens when there isn’t a major freeway between a couple towns. We’ll call it a night after the standard 8 hours of driving, which in this case will equate to 505 hours of driving. This should be less rainy than this afternoon’s drive, that’s for sure.

DAY ONE (Sunday)

There is a pool of cool air settling into the Plains behind the current cold front running west of the Appalachians, and it will keep the drive mostly dry on Sunday. Later in the day, there is some suggestion that a dry line will set up through west Texas, but I don’t think it is unstable enough that the thunderstorms will be terribly widespread, and the turning in the lower levels of the atmosphere will cause some rganization around the Big Bend. Long story short, as we drive between Lubbock and Amarillo, on towards Clovis, we will stay dry. It will continue to be dusty and dry in Tularosa, New Mexico, which is just north of Alamogordo.

DAY TWO (Monday)
After the little feature in southern Texas organizes a bit, it will shift into the Mississippi Valley and pull away any area moisture along with it, leaving our drive to be exactly what we would expect a drive through southern New Mexico annd Arizona to be like. Dry, sunny, pretty warm. Oh, and terribly empty. We won’t see much in the way of life between Alamogordo annd Tucson, so enjoy it when we get there.

Lakeland, Florida to Lawton, Oklahoma

We’re finally going on a road trip together for the first time in a while. You’ve been out and about with Anthony, but it’s my time to take you on a two day trek, this from central Florida to southwest Oklahoma. The drive will take us two days and cover 1284 miles, slicing through the southeastern US. It will be warm, certainly, and that second nearly 11 hour drive will be fairly grueling, but we will be moving at a pace of 68mph, and will cover 544 miles on our first day, leaving the rest of the meat on the bone for Monday. We should get on the road and beat the heat.

DAY ONE (Sunday)

Despite an embedded vorticity maximum within a stalled cold front over the Lower Mississippi Valley, we will be in good shape as we begin our day Sunday. The Florida Peninsula will be in great shape, and we will be in the Peninsula for the first several hours of our day. In the Panhandle, isolated thunderstorms will begin to crop up, starting around Lake City, but certainly by the time we reach Tallahassee, we will have seen at least a bit of rain. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms, appearing more like sea breeze storms than frontal activity. We will encounter stronger, synoptic scale showers and storms not long after we Panama City, and there is a threat for some gusty winds and stronger thunderstorms all the way to Lucedale, Mississippi, just north of Gulfport, northwest of Mobile.

DAY TWO (Monday)
Another lower level eddy will be getting kicked up Sunday night over south Texas, and will be bringing some moisture inland early in the morning on Monday. There will be some rain in Lucedale as we depart, but as we drive north towards Jackson, it will clear out. The warm weather will give rise to increasing thunderstorm activity, which we will battle from Monroe, Louisiana to Longview, Texas. Much more manageable activity will continue through Dallas, but traffic will undoubtedly slow us down. Another thunderstorm may crop up in the last hour or so from Wichita Falls to Lawton, but if we don’t, we will leave the stratus behind and only see sun between the showers.

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