March tends to have some of the most dynamic systems of the year, thanks to conflicting air masses thanks to the transitioning seasons. The northern tier recognizes March as a month that can produce some of the biggest snows of the winter. An upper level wave in the northern plains will merge with a surface low rising out of the Gulf of Mecico, a classic winter like pattern: Get the cold air in place, then bring in the moisture.
As is often the case, this will lead to some serious snow. There might be 4-10″ in the southern Great Lakes, but as the HPC shows, the real threat will be to interior New England:
That’s a serious dumping! But you’ll note that there isn’t a threat for such a significant snow along the coast. In fact, that’s how you know we’re moving towards spring instead of hanging on to winter. Don’t believe me? Thanks to the same system, the Storm Prediction Center is issuing this.
The same system that will bring a ton of snow to the Great Lakes will also have a threat for severe thunderstorms for the Mid Atlantic. Obviously we don’t want anything that can threaten death or destruction, but it sure is nice to have the temperatures that will allow for thunderstorms returning to the country.
Sixties!
Morgantown was projected to see temperatures in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. It didn’t happen though. No, instead it reached into the 60s! There was a big group that didn’t even have the temperatures climbing out of the low 50s, so Victoria-Weather cruised to a relatively easy victory. More like Victory-Weather.
Actuals: Sunday – Hifh 41, Low 26
Monday – High 62, Low 38
Grade C
Louisville, Kentucky to Knoxville, Tennessee
Hey, it’s another short little trip. It’s just a half day trek through the hills of eastern Kentucky to eastern Tennessee and the lovely metropolis of Knoxville. 245 miles separate the two towns, and we will cover the ground at a pace of about 61.6mph. We don’t have far to go, so let’s be on our way!
An area of low pressure moving out of the central Plains will begin to pull in a stout southwesterly flow that will serve to warm up our route quite a bit. It’s been a while, but this could definitely be a “windows down” kind of trip. No problems during the drive to Knoxville!
Weekend washout
Olympia saw over 2 inches of rain over the weekend, which even for a region with a reputation for being damp is a lot of rain. Everyone foresaw the rain coming, so the forecast came down to the temperatures. The biggest separator was the low temperatures, which were cooler than seemed possible on Saturday, but a few degrees warmer than expected by many on Sunday morning. In all, Accuweather put together the best forecast, but a heavy reliance on model data meant that nobody was too far behind.
Actuals: Saturday – 1.77 inches of rain, High 53, Low 33
Sunday – .38 inches of rain, High 58, Low 48
Grade:B
Morgantown, West Virginia to Louisville, Kentucky
Hey, this isn’t too bad. We’re off on a short little road trip between the home of the University of West Virginia and the University of Louisville. I’ve actually been to Louisville on a weekend when the two schools were playing in football. The two schools are no longer in the same conference, but the two cities remain only about 6 1/2 hours apart. It will be a nearly 400 mile drive at a pace of about 62.5mph. Let’s make the quick drive now.
This journey will be quite enjoyable, I would have to imagine. There won’t be much going on between the two cities, with clear skies under a nice ridge of high pressure. If we leave early enough, there will be some morning fog in the valleys through West Virginia, but truth be told, there won’t be anything to slow us down on the way to Louisville.
Morgantown, West Virginia
Today we head off to Morgantown, WV, just a stones throw away from PA!
At 1153pm EDT, the temperature at Morgantown, WV was 36 degrees under overcast skies. A weak cold front has pushed through the region for the most part, however an area of light precip has been trailing it for most of the day. This area could bring a few light rain/snow showers to the region as it moves through during the early morning hours Sunday, but should skedaddle out of there by sunrise. Plenty of sun is expected throughout the day with temps cracking into the low 40s. Monday should be pleasant under high pressure with much higher temps, into the mid to upper 50s! Overall a pretty good couple of days coming up.
Sunday: Light morning mix of rain/snow showers, clearing out by mid-morning. High 42, Low 26.
Monday: Partly cloudy. High 58, Low 33.
TWC: Sunday: Chance of morning snow showers, then partly cloudy. High 45, Low 25.
Monday: Partly cloudy. High 57, Low 32.
AW: Sunday: Early morning rain/snow showers, then colder with partial sunshine. High 43, Low 27.
Monday: Partly sunny and warmer. High 57, Low 32.
NWS: Sunday: Brief early morning rain/snow shower, partly cloudy during the day. High 40, Low 25.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High 52, Low 32.
WB: Sunday: Chance of light snow after midnight, mostly sunny during the day. High 39, Low 24.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High 52, Low 30.
WN: Sunday: ISolated snow showers, then partly cloudy. High 39, Low 25.
Monday: Partly cloudy. High 52, Low 32.
Here we see some light snow showers traversing the Morgantown area. Luckily, most of this precip should be of little consequence to Morgantown.
The Week Ahead 3/9/14 – 3/15/14
We have a full slate this week, but despite that, we won’t be covering much of the country. Look how short these three road trips are!
Sunday – Road Trip from Morgantown, West Virginia to Louisville, Kentucky
Monday – Road Trip from Louisville to Knoxville, Tennessee
Wednesday – Gainesville, Georgia
Thursday – Road Trip from Gainesville to Huntsville, Alabama
Friday – Panama City, Florida
Saturday – Parkersburg, West Virginia
Olympia, Washington
We head west the capital of Washington for today’s long distance forecast. Well, I guess the forecast isn’t long distance, just the forecast location.
At 838AM, PT, Olympia was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with overcast skies and a little bit of fog near the surface. Despite the gloomy conditions at present, the Pacific Northwest is under a ridge which should allow for the low overcast to burn off this afternoon, and for sunny skies to arrive for the afternoon.
The ridge across the region is driving the latest wave along the semi-permanent low over the Gulf of Alaska northwards to the Alaska Panhandle. Southerly flow and mostly clear skies will be possible through the morning, but the related cold front associated with the aforementioned wave will move inland shortly after noon. It is expected to carry with it quite a bit of heavy precipitation, and torrential rain will fall through Sunday morning before beginning to taper off after sunrise. The environment will still be muggy and cloudy, however, as postfrontal westerlies won’t allow much clearing through the end of the day. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see drizzle throughout the afternoon on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Starting sunny, then heavy rain through the afternoon, High 52, Low 38
Sunday – Heavy rain early, tapering off becoming overcast and drizzly, High 55, Low 45
TWC: Tomorrow – PM Rain High 56, Low 39
Sunday – Rain High 57, Low 49
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with rain in the afternoon High 55, Low 36
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers High 56, Low 46
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain, mainly after 10am High 56, Low 39
Sunday – Showers. High 56, Low 49
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning… Then rain likely in the afternoon. High 56, Low 44
Sunday – Showers. High 56, Low 49
WN: Tomorrow – Scattered Showers High 55, Low 39
Sunday – Showers High 55, Low 48
Rain in Western Washington. All of your stereotypes are confirmed! The milky clouds over western Washington reflect the low clouds and fog in the area right now.
There is a tornado watch in south Florida, but….
There has been a tornado warning related to a waterspout up by St. Petersburg, but frankly, looking at the radar, I’m not really worries about a waterspout here or there. No, I’m worried about that red “7″ shaped band of thunderstorms headed towards the southwest coast of Florida. Naples and Everglades could easily see winds of 70-80mph. The winds will be stronger and more widespread than any waterspout will be. So yeah, heed the tornado watch, but just know that it’s not the tornadoes that will be the biggest issue.
Another region paralyzed by wintry weather
Perhaps because of how badly Atlanta and Birmingham coped with a winter storm early this year, and subsequently Charlotte saw similar concerns a few weeks later, we don’t bat an eye when nasty weather arrives in places that aren’t prepared for it.
How much have you heard about the sleet storm in the Memphis area earlier this week? I subscribe to Memphis news outlets and all manner of meteorologists, both national and regional. I knew that parts of eastern and northern Arkansas saw a whopping 5 inches of sleet, but I hadn’t heard much about the effects of all that sleet.
Well, you can see above, traffic was at a standstill. And this isn’t a photo from Memphis, it’s from Blytheville, Arkansas, which is on I-55 on the Missouri border. I-55 was backed up from Memphis to Missouri, and a stretch of I-40 was backed up by 100 miles west into Arkansas. At least in Arkansas, residents were trapped within the confines of a major metropolitan area. On the other hand, with sleet, temperatures tend to be a bit warmer, so that’s a little bit of good news.
The sleet was brought out as a weak area of low pressure moving out of Texas, right along the southern edge of another bout of Arctic high pressure. The cold air was entrenched at the surface, but warm air filtered in aloft. Fortunately, the warm layer was fairly thin, and falling snow didn’t fully melt through the atmosphere. Hopefully, there isn’t much more sleet or ice through the month of March.