Southern Plains have had enough

txfloods
If you follow us on Twitter, you know that we have a “Radar of the Day” feature that we announce at some point during the day. You would also know that lately, we have been spending a lot of time in Texas and Oklahoma, monitoring the threat for strong thunderstorms and tornadoes. Fortunately, the toll from tornadoes and severe storms hasn’t been terribly high, but as you might infer from the image above, the repetitive threat of heavy rain has been an issue. Over the last week, parts of the Red River Valley have received over a foot of rain, and much of Texas and Oklahoma have received over half a foot. The Wichita Falls area in particular has been subject to widespread flooding, and has needed to order evacuations for a lot of the city as the Wichita River rises. You can see the National Weather Service’s far flung flood watches and warnings. There are even some river-specific warnings from Nebraska to Missouri and south through Arkansas and Louisiana
watches

Vero Beach, Florida

The cross country zig zag we are producing this week continues in south Florida. Sounds nice no matter the time of year.

At 553PM, ET, Vero Beach was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with clear skies. It was an active day across the Florida Peninsula with sea breeze convection, but the bulk of the activity was north of Cape Canaveral, and the closest thunderstorm activity to Vero Beach was inland, near Seabring.
An organizing wave in the Carolinas will generate a more southerly flow across the south end of Florida, and will likely redistribute afternoon showers and thunderstorms more evenly across the region. Activity will be strong around Ocala, but only a general shower or storm will be seen south of there, though the activity may be rather widespread. As the system pulls away, the boundary over Forida will weaken, giving rise to sea breezes once again. With the north more stable, the onus for thunderstorms will be in south Florida, and Vero Beach stands to see another day of convection.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. High 92, Low 72
Friday – Isolated thunderstorms, High 88, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 91, Low 71
Friday – PM Thunderstorms, High 89, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Warm with intervals of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm in the area in the afternoon High 92, Low 70
Friday – Remaining warm with partial sunshine; an afternoon and evening shower or thunderstorm High 91, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 91, Low 68
Friday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny,High 88, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 92, Low 70
Friday – Partly sunny. A slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Hih 92, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 91, Low 68
Friday – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 88, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Drizzle starting in the afternoon. High 90, Low 73
Friday – Drizzle starting in the evening. High 88, Low 75

Yikes, is that warm. And you had better believe that those 90s will be accompanied by high humidity as well. It’s weird to me that Forecast.io always goes with “drizzle” Thunderdrizzle maybe. Here is the radar, showing thunderstorm activity to the north.
Vero Beach

Storms steer clear, clouds do not

There was some congested flow ahead of a slow moving cold front the last couple of days, and it proved to be a little stronger than expected. Thunderstorms were frequently severe, downpours torrential and winds gusty with some of these cells, before the boundary pushed the wave off shore. Of course, all of this activity, save for a brief thundershower on Tuesday, stayed well to the north of Myrtle Beach. The low was able to churn up enough moisture to produce clouds that did linger of the coastal Carolinas, and temperatures were a hair towards the cool side of forecasts. The Weather Channel was also a hair towards the cool side, and easily dominated this forecast.
Actuals: Monday – High 82, Low 68
Tuesday – Thunderstorm reported, not measured, High 85, Low 68

Grade: A-B

Visalia, California

Today’s theme is, of course, “California towns that begin with a V”. Let’s see what the weather will be like in the central Valley.

At 1035AM, PT, Visalia was reporting a temperature degrees with clear skies. A lingering low in the Great Basin has induced a westerly flow contributing to a marine layer along the coast and downsloping and pleasant conditions in Visalia.
Upper level troughing through the area is expected to reinvigorate just off shore, which will help the surface low in northern Nevada further intensify. Rain and thunderstorms will be possible from the Sierras east into Nevada and north into Idaho and Oregon, but should spare Visalia. Instead, the central Valley will benefit from rejuvenated irrigation channels thanks to runoff from the higher terrain over the next two days.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 53,
Thursday – Increasing clouds late, High 74, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 53
Thursday – Cloudy, High 76, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of sunshine High 79, Low 54
Thursday – Mostly cloudy and cool High 75, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 64 ***
Thursday – A chance of showers, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 75, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 55
Thursday – Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the morning…Then slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 75, Low 54

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 79, Low 55
Thursday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 75, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, Low 54
Thursday – Drizzle starting in the evening. High 80, Low 51

The NWS had some serious issues with their forecast. It was about a day behind, and was not labelling their dayparts correctly, as in, highs were during the day, lows were at night. That’s why it gets the stars. Something was off kilter, and I wanted you to know that their pending terrible forecast is a result of terrible technology. We can see clouds hugging the coast this afternoon between Big Sur and San Francisco Bay.
Visalia

The down-low on Vallejo

Temperatures were pretty stable across Vallejo, which is the nice thing about being so close to the largest body of water in the world. There was a fairly active system that swept through the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin, and if it had been in the Plains, certainly would have carried a substantial cold poo with it. Cold air doesn’t climb nountains, and only warm air goes downhill, so Vallejo hung out in the upper 60s on each of the last two days, with low temperatures failing to around 50. The system didn’t impact the area as much as many outlets anticipated, and as a result, those that stuck to more persistent, warmer conditions fared better. In this case, it was Forecast.io that was the champion.
Actuals: Sunday – High 68, Low 49
Monday – High 67, Low 49

Grade: A-C

It’s not spring without a last gasp of winter

We have been talking so much about the potential for severe thunderstorms lately, brought on by strong systems streaking through the Plains, and I have even mentioned a few times the threat of showers that essentially smothered the eastern US ahead of this advancing system. What we didn’t discuss, not until right this moment, is what happens at the back end of an upper level trough. They cycle in cold air, necessary for triggering the thunderstormsat the leading edge of a system. In the summer, that might drop temperatures to the 70s, but this system in late May ended up a little stronger, synoptically, than most summer cyclones. A combination of chilly temperatures and wind (this was a deep area of low pressure and produced very strong wind) led to these apparent temperatures in the Upper Midwest today:
Maywindchill
Upper teens! Egad! The good news is, we are late enough into the year that this won’t last long. Expect some wonderful conditions to return by the end of the week.

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

We’ve been moseying around out west the last few days, it’s time to make our way all the way across the country to Myrtle Beach.

At 845PM, ET, Myrtle Beach was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies. A steep upper level ridge dominated the eastern Seaboard, and the increase in pressure has been paired with an increase in warm air across the region.
The surface heating has created an environment in which the weakest of waves will be able to touch off showers and thunderstorms across the region. Flow related to a cold front advancing through the Ohio Valley will lead to some lee troughing from the Appalachians, and the southeast will be ripe for air mass showers and storms tomorrow. The parent low will reorganize on Tuesday, and flow will not be as robust, however a ripple in the upper level ridge will pass through the Carolinas. Precipitation will be significantly less, but it will stand a better chance of reaching the coast on Tuesday evening than on Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 69
Tuesday – Chance of showers, warmer, High 87, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 82, low 68
Tuesday – Scattered thunderstorms, High 86, low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Warm and humid with intervals of clouds and sun (late storms) High 86, Low 69
Tuesday – Partial sunshine with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; warm and humid High 86, low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 79, Low 68
Tuesday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 80, Low 66
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 84, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 84, low 66
Tuesday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 86, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Drizzle overnight. High 83, Low 69
Tuesday – Light rain in the morning and afternoon. High 84, Low 72

What we have here is a diverse set of forecasts. We’ll see how close we are to the mark, because for one or two of us, at least, there is going to be some error. Inland flow over the Carolinas is producing some milky clouds trying to develop. Nothing reported anywhere, yet.
Myrtle Beach

Savoring the sunlight

Forecasts for this weekend were fairly depressing across the country, painting about 50% of the country in rain and thunderstorms. It didn’t turn out to be that bleak, particularly in Springfield, where there was only a tenth of an inch of rain on Friday, and none on Saturday. Temperatures were able to climb into the mid-80s, unencumbered by overcast or persistent rain showers. Some people were fairly optimistic, and as a result contributed the most accurate forecasts. The big winner in this case was Accuweather, who only missed by a degree, cumulatively over their 4 verifying times. Actuals: Friday .10″ of rain, High 83, Low 61
Saturday – High 82, Low 66

Grade: A-C

Vallejo, California

We are headed west to finish off the week. This forecast calls for a stop at the north end of San Pablo Bay.

At 654PM, PT, Vallejo was reporting a temperature of 63 degrees with clear skies. The Bay area was presently in the clear, but satellite indicated a marine layer developing around Monterrey and San Francisco. Flor aloft was westerly nd responsible for the nascent dreariness found close to the coast.
An upper level trough is going to build through central California, and as a result, there may be some cooling in Vallejo as a result. Moisture will spill into the Pacific Northwest and northern California on Sunday evening, with the potential for thunderstorms in the higher terrain of the Sierras, but generally quiet conditions near San Pablo Bay. The upper trough will be orphaned along the west coast, and the showery conditions will persist on Monday, but again, will likely be a problem mostly for the higher terrain found inland and to the north, while Vallejo will merely contend with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures that will be a hair cooler.
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 66, low 47
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 66, low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Clouds/PM Sun, High 65, Low 53
Monday – AM Clouds/PM Sun, High 65, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Cool with times of clouds and sun; breezy in the afternoon High 63, Low 51
Monday – Partly sunny High 62, low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, high 65, low 50
Monday – Mostly cloudy High 64, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 64, low 49
Monday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. High 64, low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 64, Low 50
Monday – Mostly Cloudy High 64, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 68, Low 51
Monday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, Low 51

Despite that lengthy post, and all that’s going on, it doesn’t look too bad in Vallejo.
Vallejo

The Week Ahead, 5/17/15 – 5/23/15

We are doing a good job of distributing our resources across the country today. Let’s take a gander at what the week has to ffer.
map

Sunday – Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
Tuesday – Visalia, California
Wednesday – Vero Beach, Florida
Friday – Grand Rapids, Michigan
Saturday – Lewiston, Idaho

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