Synoptic Analysis for 5/21/12
Posted by Ryan
We have been pumping out forecasts day after day for the last several days, and haven't a chance to take a break and look at the analysis, both with the surface analysis (provided by the HPC) and our own synoptic analysis (which takes into account more than just the surface, and comes from a different place, philosophically) First, the HPC version:
And now, a look at the lovely, hand drawn version I created.
1) The upper level pattern is very interesting, given the strength of the surface features. Flow is very weak through a trough over the center of the country, yet the cold front I have analyzed on this map is causing a cool down of 20 degrees or so. You will note that I didn't draw any of the pink lines representing a jet, because the flow is so weak. The mid level boundary is very strong, and is the mechanism allowing for such a strong surface pattern. It's even a mid-level ridge that is helping the surface high build. There is a weak trough aloft, after all!
Anyways, I stemmed off the cold front in Arkansas, because the shower and thunderstorm activity is bubbling at the southern edge of the ridge. Easterly flow into an unstable environment has been conducive to thunderstorm development, but there isn't much of a temperature or dew point gradient in this area. The easterly flow at the base of the ridge will eventually help aid some lee thunderstorms, particularly in New Mexico and Colorado.
2) There is no doubt that there are areas of low pressure well north of Alberto, but my yellow 'circle of influence' indicates my thinking. Alberto, which is admittedly more powerful than I was ever thinking, is driving that weak low and its associated stratus and shower activity, inland towards Long Island and south towards the Nation's Capital.
3) This will be the next system to cause problems for the center of the country. Right now, it is an amorphous blob. Wait until it comes out of the mountains, so we can see what it will really do.
Hola, Alberto
Posted by Ryan
The various hurricane or tropical weather centers surrounding a particular body of water have some influence in the names of tropical storms. In the Caribbean and west Atlantic, there are English, French and Spanish speakers, and thus, the names of tropical storms and hurricanes in this part of the world have names from those languages. Thus, our first tropical storm of the year is named Alberto.
That prelude really doesn't tell much about the storm, of course. The system will simply be a rain maker for parts of the East coast south of Long Island before it drifts off to the east and away from the US. Take a peek at the NHC forecast:
The system is generating a bit of it's own jet structure, but in an open wave. Alberto is much stronger than expected, however, don't be surprised if he goes away rather quickly.
Calm and toasty
Posted by Ryan
Battle Creek sounds like it should be a pretty rough and tumble metropolis, but it turns out that it's pretty tranquil. Well, at the very least, it was pretty calm the last couple of days, with sunny skies and increasingly summerlike temperatures. The Weather Channel had the top forecast, narrowly.
Actuals: Friday - High 79, Low 49
Saturday - High 85, Low 53
Grade: A
Yakima, Washington
Posted by Ryan
We are spending a lot of time out west this month, aren't we? But this time we are in Washington, on the east side of the Cascades.
At 1053AM, PT, Yakima was already reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies. Low dew points and sunny skies seemed to suggest a warm day in Yakima today. A few clouds caused by the topography of the Cascades would be the only issue today.
Satellite shows a moister flow for Oregon, and that will filter north into Washington over the next two days as an area of low pressure develops off the Pacific Coast. The Cascades and the prevailing south-southwest flow will allay the rain fall moving into the Yakima Valley tomorrow, however as the cold front moves ashore, rain becomes much more likely on Monday.
Tomorrow - Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 45
Monday - Mostly cloudy, with rain late. High 70, Low 54
TWC: Tomorrow - Cloudy, High 76, Low 49
Monday - Showers, High 60, Low 55
AW: Tomorrow - More clouds than sun High 76, Low 43
Monday - Considerable cloudiness with a shower in the area High 72, Low 48
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of showers after 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 75, Low 45
Monday - A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, High 69, Low 53
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy (late rain). high 65, Low 42
Monday - Cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon High 64, Low 55
Wow, chilly according to Weatherbug. It's a cool looking satellite image for Yakima, with the mountains and associated clouds easily picked out.
So what happened in Tennessee?
Posted by Ryan
The forecast in Cleveland won't count against anyone's scores, because they don't have a reporting station in town, but we can still talk about the weather in Tennessee for the past couple of days. Looking at what they had to say in Chattanooga, I can assure you that it was quite warm, with temperatures reaching the mid 80s both if the last two days. There were a few showers and thunderstorms around the area, but on Thursday, they stayed on the east side of the Smokey Mountains. On Friday, they seemed to bubble up south of Chattanooga. These past two days have been good for hiking in the Smokey Mountains.
The week ahead: 5/20/12-5/26/12
Posted by Ryan
After several weeks filled to the brim with forecasts, we are looking at a quieter week ahead. With Memorial Day forthcoming, there are other things to discuss!
Tuesday: Akron, Ohio; Road Trip from Barnstable, Massachusetts to Akron
Thursday: Road Trip from Lima, Ohio to Naples, Florida
Friday: Lansing, Michigan.
The heat is on
Posted by Ryan
A ridge moving through the northern Rockies went kaput as it moved into the Plains, which means that there was good source of forcing for warm air to move into the center of the country. Take a look at the forecast highs for the day:
90s all the way into Minnesota and the Dakotas! Furthermore, since the pattern died over the west, the remnant southerly flow is from the southwest, which means that lower level flow bringing warm air to the Upper Midwest is bringing warm DRY air to the Upper Midwest. Take a peek at the 850mb winds (i.e., not far above the surface):
And I said earlier, the upper level pattern has gone flat. There are expected to be a few showers and storms across the area tomorrow, which will keep temperatures down, but the 80s won't go away for good until the middle of next week.
Hard to argue with weather like this.
Posted by Ryan
If there was a problem with the weather in Corvallis lately, it was that the winds really picked up Thursday evening. Additionally, clear skies probably were a problem for residents of western Oregon unaccustomed to seeing the sun. Sun burn! Victoria-Weather notched the top forecast, by a hair.
Actual: Wednesday - High 78, Low 48
Thursday - High 66, Low 42
Grade: B
On the Warm Side
Posted by Anthony
Most of the forecasts for Charlottesville had them getting warmer on Wednesday than it was on Tuesday, but the main issue were the low temperatures being significantly warmer than expected. Also, over an inch of rain fell on Tuesday, which everybody had forecasted, but probably not to that degree. The sites were pretty split on whether or not they would see precip on Wednesday and they did wind up reporting 0.01" in the early morning, most likely due to dense fog at the time as opposed to a rain shower. The Weather Channel took home the top spot on the strength of their warmer low temperature forecast.
Tuesday: 1.02" of rain. High 83, Low 67.
Wednesday: 0.01" of rain, mostly in dense fog. High 85, Low 63.
Battle Creek, Michigan
Posted by Anthony
We're well into spring now and temperatures are rising over the Northern US! Will Michigan be a lucky recipient of these pleasant temperatures?
At 1253pm EDT, the temperature at Battle Creek, MI was 65 degrees under fair skies. An area of high pressure sitting over the Great Lakes region the last couple of days is being pushed off to the east, but will continue to keep the weather very nice for the rest of today and tonight. A bit of a warm front is lifting through the Upper Midwest and has already kicked off a few showers over MN and WI. Luckily, this activity should remain over Upper Michigan and northern parts of Lower Michigan during the morning Friday as it lifts through, keeping the Battle Creek area dry. This will usher in some warmer temperatures into Saturday as well, along with some possible gusty winds Saturday afternoon/evening. Overall, should be a pretty nice weekend in Lower Michigan!
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 77, Low 45.
Saturday: Sunny. High 85, Low 54.
TWC: Friday: Sunny. High 78, Low 47.
Saturday: Continued sunny. High 84, Low 53.
AW: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 78, Low 48.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and warmer. High 84, Low 55.
NWS: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 47.
Saturday: Sunny. High 83, Low 54.
WB: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 77, Low 46.
Saturday: Sunny. High 83, Low 54.
Here we see fairly clear skies over Lower Michigan at this time. The shower activity over central MN and northern WI should stay off to the north Friday and remain a nice weekend!
