There is a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms today from the Dakotas to northern Minnesota. How we got to this point is rather circuitous. Let’s take a look at the past 24 hours of SPC outlooks. I don’t think I’ve seen one of these things change so much pre-storm in a very long time. Here is what we started with yesterday morning:
A slight risk, covering most of Minnesota and a lot of the central Dakotas. Furthermore, they had the best threat for severe storms around the North Dakota/South Dakota and Minnesota tri-state.
After a shift change and perhaps the usage of a hallucinogen, Sunday afternoon’s update gave us this moderate risk, with a center about 150 miles to the east-southeast.
And now, thunderstorms were going to be significantly stronger.
Whoa! 45% and hatched, when we only had 30% earlier. And there isn’t much of an overlap, either.
So obviously, something changed, the onus was now on the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Rochester to be prepared for — Oh, wait. This was the outlook from the overnight.
So we’re back into North Dakota and northern Minnesota, which, initially, wasn’t even in a slight risk for yesterday’s updates. This time, the center shifted about 175 miles to the northwest. Was the threat for significant weather still high? Why yes, yes it was.
Where are we at now with the morning update, you may ask. Pretty similar to the overnight outlook, actually, but greatly elongated.
The only thing is that the threat for strong winds seems to be sneaking back deeper into Minnesota, practically to Wisconsin.
Actually, that’s a pretty significant change, increasing the coverage of significant severe weather like that. There is also a 5% tornado threat now in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. that really grew over the course of the past two updates.
Expect the afternoon update to push the focus into Iowa.