The Pacific continues its active tropical season


You likely haven’t heard as much about Hurricane Marie as you have about Iselle in the Pacific or even Cristobal in the Atlantic, but without a doubt, the once category 5 Marie has been the strongest storm of the season. Despite it’s completely isolated location southwest of the Baja Peninsula, it’s actually kicking up dangerous surf as far away as the Los Angeles area.
Despite the heretofore quiet season in the more well covered (because there are more targets for tropical systems) Atlantic Season, the Pacific continues to churn out major tropical features. It’s not often the eastern and central Pacific produce storms that make headlines, because away from the tropics, the water temperatures are too cold to support storms veering poleward, but this year, we have already had the dual threat to Hawaii and now Marie making headlines. It’s just another lesson in vigilance when it comes to the weather!

A heat wave to finish off summer

I know that when I think of New Hampshire, I don’t necessarily think “blazing hot summers.” I would assume that temperatures this time of year are beginning t descend towards something a little more autumnal, and really, I would be right. The average highs and lows in Manchester, New Hampshire for this time of year are in the mid 70s and lower 50s. To begin this week, however, both sets of numbers have been about 10 degrees above normal. It’s high pressure, and the forecast was easy, and local residents got to experience an extended taste of summer after what had been an extended winter. Victoria-Weather and Accuweather tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Monday – High 88, Low 63
Tuesday – High 87, Low 62

Grade: A

Cristobal Cruises by Coast

Well, when I posted last week about the quiet hurricane season, the tropics decided to get a little busy and throw Cristobal into the mix, and in a hurry! The wave that only had a 10% chance to develop into anything over the next 5 days decided to beat the odds and become the 3rd named storm of the season. It did take a while, however, for it to finally get its act together. Hispaniola didn’t help matters much either, causing the system to become ragged and disorganized as it moved over the island. Finally though, it found its way into a more hospitable environment and intensified into the hurricane it is now. Fortunately for the US, this storm will continue to curve out towards Bermuda then race into the North Atlantic over the next few days. There are a couple other weak features of note in the Atlantic Basin, but upper-level winds aren’t expected to be favorable for the feature in the Gulf. Never know what will change in the next few days though, and create Dolly, which is the next name on the list.


Albuquerque, New Mexico to Rochester, New York

This seems like a long trip, but at 3 1/2 days, it’s less than half of the monstrosities we’ve been posting lately. The mileage will be 1859 miles, and since we won’t be driving through the Canadian wilderness this time around, we can reach an average speed of 65.5mph, and the first three days will allow us to cover 524 miles a day. Put on your driving pants, and let’s go for a ride.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
There is a surface low and some seasonal monsoonal enhancement on the horizon tomorrow for central New Mexico early in the day and all of New Mexico by afternoon. We’ll leave Albuquerque with some thunderstorms looming in all directions, and likely have to contend with a few showers and storms in the high plains of New Mexico as well. The convective activity should stop around Truth and Consequences, and the drive into and through the Texas Panhandle will be just fine. The same can be said for the rest of the day’s travels through western Oklahoma to the western OKC suburb of Yukon. Boy, after the last couple of days, that’s ironic.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
The low that had been in New Mexico will lift north to the Nebraska Panhandle, and extend a warm front through Iowa and south towards the Ohio River. We will be driving in the warm sector of this storm, which may foster an isolated thunderstorm around Tulsa, though that doesn’t appear likely. The better threat for showers will be as we approach the lingering warm front around St. Louis. It should only be in the form of some lighter showers as opposed to heavy thunderstorms, as the forcing and trigger mechanisms won’t be great. Let’s call it a day in Cahokia, Illinois, just across the river of St. Louis.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
Driving through southern Illinois and much of Indiana looks like it will be overcast, and my even a bit drizzly as flow continues through an already moist environment towards a boundary attempting to slide through the western Great Lakes. After we pass through the Richmond, Indiana area and head into Ohio, however, things should clear out, and we’ll have smooth sailing to Medina, Ohio, which is just outside of Akron.

DAY FOUR (Friday)
High pressure is forecast to be parked over the mid-Atlantic by the time Friday rolls around, which will be great for the last 5 hour drive. It should be pretty warm too, if we want to go check out the beach at Lake Ontario.

Rochester, New York

We aren’t straying too far from yesterday’s forecast in Manchester,  but with the forecast extending an extra day to the future, will we see any big weather surprises?

At 1154AM, ET, Rochester was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. High pressure remains in place across the eastern Great Lakes, and aside from a band of clouds extending from Rochester towards Erie, Pennsylvania,  the region was very quiet.
The upper level ridge is in a strong position and angled beautifully so as to inhibit any significant advance of a boundary presently in the western Great Lakes. Rather than thunderstorms, when the surface moisture and impeded cold front makes its way into western New York, morning fog, clouds, and light rain will be possible until the heating of the day helps to burn that activity off by early afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 62
Wednesday – Morning fog and clouds with a chance for light rain, High 76, low 59 (non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 87, Low 62
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy (night storms) High 74, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasantly warm high 86, Low 63
Wednesday- A morning shower or thunderstorm around; otherwise, partly sunny and not as warm high 75, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny high 89, Low 62
wednesday – Partly sunny (early showers) High 76, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Very warm High 88, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny (early rain_ High 76, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 90, Low 63
Wednesda – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 75, Low 64

Everyone has some shower activity in the forecast for early wednesday. The only thing that could throw a wrench in the works, I think is if that low level moisture just shows up as fog. Looking pretty good across western New york right now though!

This is why we don’t trust model guidance 10 days out

hurricaneRemember this? This was posted last Tuesday, with a verifying time of next Thursday. It’s a hurricane getting ready to hit Texas to end August!

Well, maybe not. To the GFS’ credit, there IS a tropical feature that has developed. The only problem was that it developed about 4 days too early. And… well:

CristobalSo on Thursday, Cristobal will be near Bermuda instead of near Houston. Near miss!




Manchester, New Hampshire

All right, we’re almost back on track. This is the forecast for Manchester, New Hampshire that was promised to you yesterday.

At 753PM, ET, Manchester was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 75 degrees. The urban heat island affect seemed to be quite impactful, as Manchester was about degrees warmer than any other site in southern New Hampshire or northeastern Massachuesetts.
High pressure will remain parked over New England for the next two days. There is an area of low pressure in Canada that is going to be held up in that part of the continent, and it will draw southerly flow through New Hampshire, which will help temperatures take a last run at 90 for the season.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 88, Low 60
Tuesday – Sunny skies continue, High 88, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny high 86, Low 59
Tuesday – Sunny High 88, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; patchy morning fog, then nice in the afternoon High 87, Low 60
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and very warm; patchy fog in the morning, then pleasant in the afternoon High 87, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny high 86, Low 58
Tuesday – Sunny High 87, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny high 87, Low 58
Tuesday – Sunny High 87, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 84, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny High 88, Low 64

Now this is a nice way to wind down summer! Satellite is nice and quiet.

The heat is on

After some thunderstorms moved through Midland on Thursday night, it seemed like temperatures would drop off by a degree or two. Naturally, temperatures tended to be off by just that; a degree or two. The real separator was the low temperature on Friday morning, where the low only dipped to 77, while forecasts were generally 3-4 degrees cooler than that. The Weather Channel had the warmest forecast, and thereby the best forecast.
Actuals: Friday – High 97, Low 77
Saturday – High 96, Low 74

Grade: B

Anchorage, Alaska to Louisville, Kentucky

And now, for the return trip. This road trip was supposed to begin on Friday, but I had to skip town on a road trip of my own, so I made the executive decision to issue this forecast for a road trip starting on Monday instead of Saturday. I imagine the forecast will change quite a bit, to be honest. Will the drive be good or bad? It will take us 8 days at 62mph (496 miles a day) to cover the 3941 miles between towns. Let’s get a move on. There is a ways to go.

DAY ONE (Monday)
An area of low pressure moving itself up Bristol Bay into Alaska is making for some rainy conditions in Anchorage today. The rain won’t be as heavy when we leave tomorrow, but there will still be some falling, though it will be pretty light all the way through southeastern Alaska. Frankly, most of the precipitation will be falling as snow in the mountains around town, but we can’t safely rule out some high based chilly rains. When we cross into the Yukon, most of the precipitation will be very high based, and driving along the Alaska Highway to the banks of the Donjek River should be just fine. Lonely, certainly, but just fine.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
As wave after wave of energy moves inland through northwestern Canada, we will see more of the same. Very heavy precipitation is expected in the higher terrain of Mount Logan and the interior mountains of the Yukon. With the amount of moisture that is progged to move inland, I find it hard to believe that we will stay dry through the southern Yukon, but I would venture to guess that we will stop in Lower Post, British Columbia, right on the Yukon border, before we catch up to the front and have to deal with the potential for thunderstorms.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
While we are asleep in Lower Post, the low pressure system that has been causing us our issues will shift into the Northwest Territories and pull most of it’s offending moisture away from our route. Huzzah! There will still be a little bit of oragraphic shower activity, especially along southwestern exposures, but beyond that, we are in for a fairly dry day as we make our way to Inga Lake, British Columbia.

DAY FOUR (Thursday)
Of course, as that low moves into flatter land, a pretty well defined cold front will develop in its wake. The tail of the boundary will stall on a nice east-west line, right through Edmonton. Oh, and by the way, we plan to go west to east right through Edmonton. We will likely be just north of the rain until about Whitecourt, but after that? All bets are off. Our day will end in Mundare,

DAY FIVE (Friday)
The front will start to move more quickly eastward as the surface low organizes over Hudson Bay. There still may be a few upslope showers in Alberta, but for the first time in our entire trek, we are looking at a mostly dry day through the Canadian Prairies. The day will end east of Regina in Wolseley, Saskatchewan

DAY SIX (Saturday)
We will manage to pass through Manitoba without actually stopping there. How about that? High pressure should, by this point, be taking control not over the Canadian Prairie land, but also the Upper Midwest. We will enjoy dry passage into the US and Argusville, North Dakota.

DAY SEVEN (Sunday)
There is another system developing over the Canadian Prairie at the end of August, and there is forecast to be some serious diurnal convection over the Ohio Valley. The spot between these areas, the Upper Midwest, will be completely dry (so long as you trust the GFS a week out. There is a post to come later today on why that might not be a GREAT idea). We’ll make it to Poynette, Wisconsin, which is north of Madison.

DAY EIGHT (Next Monday)
Sweet fancy Moses has this post taken forever to write. There is no way to be a hundred percent sure, but it still looks like high pressure will dominate the western Great Lakes next week. Just to be on the safe side, the longer range models are putting a little bit of rain in the southwestern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, but if the pattern is anywhere close to what the model suggests, it will be dry along our route until we hit about Seymour, Indiana. From there to Louisville, there will be a better chance of diurnal convection. How much? Who knows, honestly.

The Week Ahead 8/24/14 – 8/30/14

I’m in a race against time today, because we are headed off to South Dakota tonight. If I don’t get the road trip done, my apologies, we will move it and the scheduled posts for tomorrow to Sunday, and just make a big ol’ day of it.


Monday – Rochester, New York; Road Trip from Albuquerque, New Mexico to Rochester
Thursday – Lima, Ohio
Friday – Farmington, New Mexico
Saturday – Toledo, Ohio

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