Athens, Georgia

Tomorrow – Sunny, High 95, Low 68
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 98, Low 68

TWC – Tomorrow – Sunny High 96, Low 69
Monday – Sunny, High 96, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 94, Low 67
Monday – Partly sunny High 97, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 95, Low 69
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 95, Low 69
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 95, Low 70
Monday – Partly Cloudy High 95, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy overnight. High 95, Low 71
Monday – Partly cloudy overnight. High 97, Low 71

Looks like most are staying away from that trap, the GFS’s crazy warm temperatures. Probably for the best.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Late night forecast for the weekend and the beginning of August, Milwaukee. What do we have for you?

At 1145PM, CT, Milwaukee was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 71 degrees. Given the course of the summer, of significantly more importance was the dew point temperature, parked in the low 50s. Dry high pressure was in place over the Upper Midwest, thanks mostly to a more organized trough pooling moisture to the east.
Guidance suggests a weak upper level jet streak allowing a lee trough in the northern Plains to maintain itself through the day tomorrow. The jet will meld with the broader trough to the east of Milwaukee as a lobe on the southwest side of the broader feature. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible in the morning on Sunday, however the heaviest activity will be reserved for Lake Michigan and the state of Michigan to the east in the evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 64
Sunday – Showers and storms early, giving way to clearing skies, High 85, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 86, Low 63
Sunday – Scattered Thunderstorms, High 87, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and nice High 83, Low 63
Sunday – Variably cloudy with a strong t-storm; storms can bring downpours, large hail and damaging winds High 87, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85 Low 65
Sunday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 85, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of light showers in the morning. High 85, Low 64
Sunday – Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 82, Low 66
Sunday – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 81, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 81, Low 63
Sunday – Breezy until evening and rain until afternoon, starting again in the evening. High 84, Low 69

Seems as though showers are going to be on their way sooner rather than later. Again, though, it will just be some showers, rather than thunderstorms. Tough to see anything coming yet, however.

Almost a good day

Temperatures in St. Louis didn’t really go the direction we were expecting as meteorologists. It was actually a degree warmer on Thursday than it was on Wednesday, but there is a very wonderful reason for that. A weak cold front inched through the region on Wednesday night. Not only did it steer clear of any thunderstorm production at the airport, but it also brought in dew points that were merely in the mid 60s. The initial forecast had been for the boundary to stall atop St. Louis, which would have meant more clouds, some rain and lower temperatures. The boundary advanced a few miles further south than expected. As a result of the warmer temperatures, really all around, the warest forecaster, The Weather Channel, had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 91, Low 73
Thursday – High 92, Low 69

Grade: B-C

The Week Ahead 8/2/15- 8/8/15

The final month of Summer Vacation is coming. I hope you kids are maximizing it! Here is a look at how we are spending our summer vacation.

Sunday – Road Trip from Athens, Georgia to Merced, California
Monday – Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Wednesday – Olympia, Washington
Thursday – Burlington, North Carolina
Friday – Road Trip from Burlington to Lima, Ohio
Saturday – Detroit, Michigan

The warm Pacific is remaining untapped

I mentioned a few days ago that El Nino was providing for a more active than normal Pacific Coast of Mexico, which was leading to a more robust monsoon this year. This is a look at the storm activity worldwide for the time being.
There isn’t even a wave threatening the coast, which is great news for the population there. There is likely a lengthy window for Mexico and Central America that they will avoid any tropical systems. I should note, however, that tropical storm Guillermo has the potential to strike the Big Island of Hawaii in on Sunday as a category 1 hurricane. Further to the west, Invest 13 could become typhoon Soudedor, which may intensify rapidly and bring some problems to the Northern Mariana Islands. More on those systems if they do indeed look more threatening.

The Weather Service is on to something

It’s not often that there is a precipitation forecast that belongs only to one outlet, and it comes through. That was the case in Albany, New York, however, as the National Weather Service called for an isolated thunderstorm on Tuesday. They were the only ones. Albany reported a trace of rain in a thunderstorm on Tuesday. They would have won it all, were it not for The Weather Channel’s crushing of the temperatures. TWC and NWS had a tie. Other than that, holy smokes was it hot.
Actuals: Tuesday: Trace of rain, High 93, Low 68
Wednesday – High 95, Low 67

Grade: B-C

Drier air is trying to filter in

dew point
It’s been extraordinarily sticky the last few days for almost everywhere east of the Continental Divide. Dew points are still in the 70s around the eastern Great Lakes and even in the 80s, as noted yesterday around St. Louis and points to the south. I also noted that there was a a boundary sliding through the region. It isn’t bringing much by cooler temperatures, but it is bringing drier air. As you can see from Intellicast’s dew point analysis, there is a sharp gradient from the 70s to the 50s west of Detroit. There is cool air out there, and it’s trying to bring some respite to at least the northern US. Unfortunately, it’s not moving much further to bring relief in that direction.

Albany, New York to St. Louis, Missouri

Time for a trek! Two days from Albany to St. Louis. There is a bit of cooler, drier air penetrating the center of the country, so I think that should make it a bit more tolerable for those driving with the windows down. It’s a 1052.8 mile journey that will last about 2 days on the nose. This means a pace of about 64.3mph, which will allow us to cover 514 miles per day. Let’s see how how it’s going to go.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)
There may be a little bit of convection in the higher terrain of the Appalachians tomorrow, but by and large, the greater threat for showers and storms will be up in the higher terrain of the central Appalachians. The cap won’t break as we head west towards Buffalo, which means dry conditions in western New York. I think we will be in good shape through Erie and Ashtabula, but an approaching cold front will be touching off some heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms in southeast Michigan and Ohio. We might — might — see some thunderstorms out pacing the primary line of storms in Cleveland and south towards Akron. The heavier, more widespread shwers and storms will remain to our west, but if we do get grazed by something, it will bring a chance for torrential downpours. We will end the day west of Akron in Lodi, Ohio.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
The front will pass through Lodi as we sleep, and when we arise in the morning, it will be quite pleasant. It may not cool off much, but the humidity will be significantly less oppressive. Drive with the windows down through Indianapolis and west right into St. Louis.
St Louis

St. Louis, Missouri

St. Louis is one of my favorite places to visit. The Arch is fun, and the metro area is vibrant and full of things to do. If you are visiting, what will the weather have in store?

At 751PM, CT, St. Louis was reporting a temperature of 93 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Worse than that was the dew point in the city was at 74, but in outlying areas, the dew point was 80 degrees. An area of low pressure swinging through the Canadian prairies extended a diminishing cold front through Iowa. There is some thunderstorm activity, even a watch, along the Iowa-Missouri border, but the greatest threat for St. Louis is that light southerly flow and some oppressive temperatures.
The remnant boundary will sag south to lie near St Louis by tomorrow evening. With the parent low shipped off towards Hudson Bay, there won’t be much energy for thunderstorms tomorrow night. Instead, expect moisture to pool across the area, and a soupy overcast dominating the region tomorrow. Drier air will descend overnight from Wednesday to Thursday. The sun will be out, and so too will be residents, able to breathe in the outdoors again.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, humid, High 91, Low 75
Thursday – Drier and mostly sunny, High 89, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – PM Thunderstorms High 91, Low 75
Thursday – Mostly Sunny, High 90, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Hot with intervals of clouds and sunshine; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in the area High 92, Low 74
Thursday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 89, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 78
Thursday – Sunny High 89, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Hot and humid. Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 93, Low 75
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 89, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 91, Low 79
Thursday – Mostly Sunny High 90, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain until afternoon. High 92, Low 76
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 90, Low 69

No radar or satellite tonight, but check out how blanketed in excessive heat advisories Missouri is This will be lifted on Thursday.
St Louis

Albany, New York

Today we go to upstate New York, visiting the fine capital of Albany. Of course to some people, anything outside of NYC is considered upstate, but this really IS upstate!

At 1151pm EDT, the temperature at Albany, NY was 76 degrees under partly cloudy skies. A dissipating trough pushed through the Northeast today, kicking off scattered showers and thunderstorms around the area. This trough will dissipate overnight and be replaced by a weak area of high pressure for Tuesday. There’s a minimal chance of a thundershower popping off, and if so should be off to the south of Albany. High pressure should be firmly overhead for Wednesday, kicking up the temperature a couple more degrees and squashing any chances of precip for the area. Looks like July is heading out on a hot note!

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and hot. High 90, Low 68.
Wednesday: Sunny and hotter. High 92, Low 66.

TWC: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 67.
Wednesday: Sunny and warmer. High 95, Low 66.

AW: Tuesday: Mostly sunny, hot and humid. High 91, Low 65.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, continued hot and humid. High 92, Low 67.

NWS: Tuesday: Slight chance of T-Stms and patchy fog. High 90, Low 69.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 68.

WB: Tuesday: Very hot. High 90, Low 68.
Wednesday: Very hot. High 92, Low 66.

WN: Tuesday: Partly cloudy with patchy fog. High 90, Low 70.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 91, Low 68.

FIO: Tuesday: Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 89, Low 66.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 90, Low 66.

Here we see an active mid-section of the country, but eastern NY is fairly quiet. Hopefully it stays that way for the next couple of days!


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