Albany, Georgia

I am, as I said, in Omaha, this weekend, which has nothing to do with Albany, but I always take pleasure in thinking about stuff like that. Forecasting for Albany from Omaha. Crazy!

At 253PM, ET, Albany was sitting at a sweltering 88 degrees with sunny skies. There was a fairly brisk easterly wind across the region attempting to make things tolerable, and dew points only in the mid 50s seemed to be cooperating.
High pressure over the southeastern US has kept an area of low pressure associated with a broad upper trough stashed away in the central Plains, allowing the dry air to encompass Albany. While that low hasn’t had enough organization to overtake the resolute ridge, there is an area of nascent tropical development in the bight of Georgia. While the remnant ridge will still force the Plains system north towards New England when it finally starts moving, and that trough will draw the tropical feature north with it, the weakened flow will mean typically soupy summer time air will return to Albany.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 89, Low 66
Sunday – Partly cloudy, more humid. High 90, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 90, Low, 66
Sunday – Mostly sunny skies. High 92, Low, 67

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasant High 90, Low 66
Sunday – Partly sunny High 92, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 89, Low 65
Sunday – Sunny High 90, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 89, Low 67
Sunday – Sunny High 91, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 90, Low 64
Sunday – Mostly SunnyMostly Sunny High 90, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 91, Low 64
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 94, Low 64

Albany is a pretty soggy city most summers, but it looks like they will continue to stay dry for at least a couple more days. Here is the course of that tropical feature, though it should remain well below hurricane criteria.

Albany

The Week Ahead 5/29/16-6/4/16

This week, Meteorological summer, including the hurricane season get underway. Hopefully the weather won’t be quite as turbulence as it was this week, because we will have plenty of other things to discuss!

map

Tuesday: Road Trip from Eua Claire, Wisconsin to Kennewick, Washington
Thursday – Warner Robins, Georgia

A little bit of a break

It was another day of significant severe weather, particuly in Kansas and eastern Colorado down to Texas, where large hail and tornadoes were the biggest threat throughout the day. I am travelling this weekend, in Omaha, and we watched some strong supercells develop to our south, but too close together, and they tore themselves apart with competing outflows, so Greater Omaha saw some rain, but none of the rough stuff seen in Kansas.

There will not be the same threat for severe weather tomorrow as was seen today, in large part because the atmosphere will be fairly worked over. By that, I mean something similar to what happened to day near Omaha. Thunderstorms pull cold air from the upper reaches of the atmosphere as they collapse, and they render an area unsuitable for redevelopment.

A good way to see if this is going to be the case for the day is to look at the morning radar, or models for the next morning. Makes sense, right? Well, here is what the forecast bears for tomorrow morning, if the HRRR is to be believed.

worked over

That’s pretty worked over. After the last several days, I’m sure the residents of the Plains could tell you that they, too, are feeling worked over as well.

Jackson, Tennessee

Back at it again with another forecast. Let’s see if those storms in the Plains try to make their way towards western Tennessee.

At 1153PM, CT, Jackson was reporting a temperature of 65 degrees with clear skies. A developing area of low pressure over the Panhandle region was generating severe weather in the Plains, as well as a turbulent southwesterly flow across the Jackson region. This flow will light up with showers and storms with the heating of the day tomorrow, and Jackson will dodge showers and storms.
A blocking ridge remains in place over the eastern United States, and will hold low pressure in the Plains in check.  Western Tennessee will find itself within the back end of the ridge and at the leading edge of low pressure, but a cold front will never pass through. There won’t be severe weather in Jackson, however, there is  a good chance that each of the next two days will have at least one isolated thunderstorm.
Tomorrow – Isolated clusters of thunderstorms, High 85, Low 62
Friday – Scattered thunderstorms, High 84, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible.High 87, Low 63
Friday – Cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 85, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with periods of sun; a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon High85, Low 66
Friday – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm High 83, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 86, Low 64
Friday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, High 82, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow –  Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 70
Friday – Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 80, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 88, Low
Friday – Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 88, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain until afternoon, starting again overnight. High 88, Low 69
Friday – Drizzle until evening.

Nothing out there for the time being, but it looks like a busy couple of days. Fortunately, it won’t be severe or dangerous.

Jackson

Picture perfect

People often talk of southern California and it’s weather perfection. Those that say that need to be a little bit more specific, in my opinion. It’s far too hot and dry in the desert, and it can rain in the mountains. Right along the coast though? Temperatures around 70 with rarely a drop. Such was the case with Oxnard over the past two days. Accuweather nearly nailed a perfect forecast for this perfect weather.
Actuals: Monday – High 66, Low 52
Tuesday – High 66, Low 55

Grade A-B

Plains will continue to churn.

For the last couple of days, there were some severe thunderstorms in the High Plains, including some large tornadoes, hail and a few gusty straight line winds. This isn’t the first day that there has been activity in these areas, particularly over west Texas, and it won’t be the last. Look at the next several days’ worth of outlooks:

Plainsstorms1
plainsstorms2Plainsstorms3

plainsstorms4

Not only are there 4 more days in which there is a threat for severe thunderstorms in the Plains, but they are expected to work over the same part of the country. There is a significant enough risk for thunderstorms on Thursday, that the SPC has even put an enhanced risk for storms that far into the future! Perhaps even more surprising, there was a 30% chance of severe weather on Day 4 yesteday. This will be the real deal.

So why are we seeing these storms recycle? It has a lot to do with warm weather in the eastern United States. A blocking ridge has set up over the Eastern Seaboard is allowing a jet exit streak from southern New Mxico to the central Plains. It has no place to go, and is providing unusually strong upper level support for convective development, and that support hasn’t been going anywhere.

Fortunately, the activity hasn’t moved into the more casualty susceptible southeastern US, or the more densely populated Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.  The Plains have been busy, but have been blessed by relative safety. Let’s hope that good luck continues, as it will be needed for several more days.

One picturesque look at today’s thunderstorms

Today was essentially a perfect severe weather outbreak, inasmuch as the storm activity was confined to one of the more sparsely populated stretches of tornado alley. There were tornadoes reported in the Texas Panhandle, northwestern Iowa, and that photo above was of a twister northwest of Woodward, Oklahoma.

There were no injuries and no significant reports of injury, but there were several photos just like the one above (though perhaps not as beautiful). Unfortunately, the activity will be shifting towards the Ozarks tomorrow, and there seems to be a trend for more organization and more severe weather in the southern Plains tomorrow. Let’s hope the inevitable severe weather will once again be photogenic, rather than disastrous.

Here are the areas under the gun tomorrow. There is a very good chance that we may see some similar photography near Woodward again.stormotlk

 

Asheville sees enough sun

Temperatures were able to poke into the mid 70s on Saturday, and warmed up into the low 70s even on Sunday in Asheville, despite the introduction of backend cooling with a congealing area of low pressure over Chesapeake Bay. Victoria-Weather was significantly warmer on our temeprature forecast, allowing a victory for the home side, but a real surprise was a dose of light rain Sunday morning, and a lack thereof on Saturday. Only two outlets had rain on Sunday, while everyone did on Saturday. this leveled the playing field a bit for those two damper forecasts with the National Weather Service ultimately tying Victoria-Weather for the top forecast, and WeatherNation finishing only slightly off the pace.
Actuals: Saturday – High 76, Low 54
Sunday – .01 inches of rain, High 71, low 54

Grade: C-D

Oxnard, California

We’re going to finish this weekend off with a trip to southern California. There is a NWS office in Oxnard, serving the greater Los Angeles area. How focused are they close to home? We will find out!

At 951PM, PT, Oxnard was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 58 degrees. Clear skies and a dew point of 52 suggest that as the night continues to cool off, fog will have no problem settling into the Oxnard area.
A broad but weak upper level trough is going to settle further south and elongate into a more oblong shape through the period. It isn’t necessarily the clash in air mass, which will be minimal, but rather the increased turning in the upper atmosphere that raises the most intrigue. With the increased helicity, there will be a bit of destabilization, which may lead to some light showers, and will definitely lead to some clouds on Tuesday afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 53
Tuesday – Increasing clouds with a spot of drizzle, High 66, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny., High 66, Low 53
Tuesday – Areas of morning fog with some patchy drizzle. Morning clouds will give way to sunshine for the afternoon. High 66, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds breaking for some sun High 67, Low 53
Tuesday – Low clouds breaking for some sun; breezy in the afternoon High 66, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 67, Low 51
Tuesday – Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 65, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 55
Tuesday – Cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 65, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 68, Low 50
Tuesday – Partly Cloudy High 64, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy overnight. High 69, Low 54
Tuesday – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 65, Low 54

A little bit of weather for the sunny southern Calfornia coast, although there is no evidence of it on satellite, and it’s fishy that only V-W and The Weather Channel (of all entities) have it in the forecast.

Oxnard

Severe weather border to border

bordertoborder

This is a bit too late of a capture, but just about an hour ago, there were watches stretching from the Canadian to Mexican borders. There is a dual boundary, the northern one from the Dakotas to the Colorado high Plains, and a southern surface wave in west Texas, with a break in the action, for now, in Oklahoma and Kansas.

Here is a look at the weather outlook that preceded this watch pattern today:

bordertoborderotlk

That southerly low is responsible for a little bit of vorticity and helicity, resulting in some large tornadoes that were seen, and are still being seen from southwest Kansas to the Big Bend in Texas.

Thunderstorms will be active all week, with the threat shifting from the sparsely populated Plains to the more significantly populated Mississippi Valley.

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