As it turns out, we don’t have any more verifications scheduled for the month of January, so we already know exactly who will be named the forecaster of the Month. With a clipper moving through New England today, and the potential for another significant system moving though the northeast at the beginning of February, it seems like this is an appropriate time to chat about this, so we can focus on real time weather conditions over the weekend and into next week. So, enough about all that. The top forecaster is the same one who dominated the end of 2014 and is now off to a great start in 2015. Accuweather had the top forecasts for the first month of the year, securing the title of forecaster of the month. The newcomers, Forecast.io nearly finished in 4th, but a rough forecast in Bellingham bumped them down to 5th, behind the NWS. Congrats to Accuweather for the continued dominance of the forecast game!

Rather than go site by site and regale you with the individual storm reports, I thought it would be much easier if I shared an image from the NWS with aggregated snowfall totals. IF you actually want to dig into the numbers, you can find some of them here. If not, you can simply marvel at this map. Note the stretch northwest of Boston (which saw over two feet as well) where accumulations were up to 3 feet.

All that snow with winds of 40-50mph through the day. Sheesh. Here’s what it looked like from Boston (via Jim Cantore)

There are a lot of outlets and people complaining on social media about how badly forecasters missed on the forecast for the blizzard that hit New England last night (and is still ongoing in some regions). Let’s address what went wrong for meteorologists (and this was indeed a loss for meteorologists, and not just those that had an incorrect forecast) and why it happened.
Snowfall everywhere from New York City on west and southward was overestimated by 10+ inches, which is a pretty unforgivable offense. It will be pointed to as proof that weathermen have no idea what they are doing from this day forward, perhaps for all time. The storm of the century in New York City instead just turned into the storm of the week. In Philadelphia, it was just a nuisance.
So what happened? The weekend issuances of the European model were what happened. The Euro shifted things further west than it had when the system started showing up in forecasts, and more significantly, stared pumping more moisture into New York and Philadelphia. New York still wasn’t getting 30″ in these new forecast models, but the threat was there. The “up to” part of the “up to 30″” wasn’t heard loud enough, certainly, but that’s hardly the biggest problem.
The Euro gets a lot of credibility because it has a better track record than many American models, and outlets, most notably the National Weather Service, were quick to latch on to its shift towards a robust, western track scenario. The newly revamped GFS was much more conservative in its forecast for New York City and Philadelphia. I’m sure many foreasters aren’t ready to trust the GFS yet, but the Euro started trending away from the monumental snow totals as early as yesterday morning as well. Why weren’t the forecasts tempered then?
I think the problem here is two fold. First, it’s stubbornness, and second it was hype. Sure, maybe it is a failure in communication, like the Washington Post asserts, but an unwavering regard for increasingly questionable series of model runs is not an error in science, but rather a lack of maturity. It’s OK to be wrong sometimes so long as you can admit it. Secondly, the way the media latched on to the NWS forecast, mostly because it was the most dramatic. The government fueled the panic in this storm more than the media did. In a strange reversal, The Weather Channel tempered their forecast opposed to the cataclysmic forecast the NWS put out. Heck, nearly everyone tempered their forecast. That said, all anyone heard about was the high end forecast. It spread like wildfire. Even though I didn’t think there was a chance for that much snow, all anyone will talk about is the 30″ forecast in New York City.
Just because the snow didn’t build up in New York City as had been so widely advertised, it didn’t mean that the storm was any weaker than forecasts had indicated. The onus was always on southeastern New England as far as I’m concerned, and places from downstate Maine to eastern Connecticut have already seen or will ultimately end up with 30″ or more. Worcester, just west of Boston saw more than 2 feet. Heck, Long Island, as near to the city as Massapequa saw 20″. Those 20″ accumulations were only 30 miles from New York City. It’s not like the storm didn’t happen. It just didn’t happen in two very high profile locations.
Additionally, the terrifyingly high forecast winds out of this system were indeed borne out in the observations. Nantucket has seen winds of over 50mph through most of the day, while Boston has registered more than 40mph through much of the day. Even in New York City, winds of 30+mph were reported through much of the day yesterday and through this morning. 8 inches or 30 inches, winds of that nature with snow falling hard creates treacherous travel conditions. The crazy snowfall forecast likely ended up keeping people off the roads, and even saved lives. Sure, the NWS made meteorologists look silly in the process, but the net result was a safer city.
Unfortunately, despite the fact that for residents of Connecticut, Long Island, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire, the forecast was spot on, all anyone will remember is the whiff in New York City. Will people heed weather alerts in the future? Not until trust is rebuilt with some high profile correct forecasts. What are lessons for meteorologists to take from this event? First, be willing to adapt and change as guidance and observable conditions change and unfold. Second, ensure that you communicate the most likely scenario with the worst case scenario available to those who need to prepare for it, but not the main headline. Last, continue to relay the fact that forecasts are often area forecasts. Just because you didn’t see a bunch of snow doesn’t mean that there wasn’t a ton of snow seen nearby. And don’t just focus on the snow totals in a dangerous winter storm.
Hopefully, meteorologists’ reputations within the public eye aren’t completely ruined over this system, and forecasters everywhere aren’t too proud to learn something from it all.