Olympia, Washington

Today we’re going to visit the Pacific Northwest, and visit the capital of Washington! Let’s see how Olympia will fare as we head into midweek.

At 654pm, the temperature at Olympia, WA is 51 degrees under fair skies. An area of low pressure is intensifying over eastern Montana, and trailing a front back through ID into OR. This feature will be pushing out into the Plains throughout the day Wednesday, bringing some showers to the Central Plains. Behind this feature, an area of high pressure is settling in over the Pacific Northwest and looks to make it its home over the next couple of days. Some areas of dense fog are possible in the area tomorrow morning before burning off by midday. Some patchy fog is possible Thursday morning too, but will be less widespread. Both days will be dry, with temps lifting a smidge for Thursday.

Wednesday: Some morning dense fog, then becomes sunny. High 58, Low 41.
Thursday: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer. High 61, Low 37.

TWC: Wednesday: AM fog, PM sun. High 59, Low 43.
Thursday: Morning fog again, then afternoon sun. High 62, Low 41.

AW: Wednesday: Times of clouds and sun. High 58, Low 41.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High 62, Low 38.

NWS: Wednesday: Patchy fog then sunny. High 57, Low 42.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 62, Low 41.

WB: Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 56, Low 46.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 60, Low 42.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 57, Low 42.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. high 62, Low 41.

FIO: Wednesday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 58, Low 40.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy throughout the morning, clearing late. High 61, Low 37.

A bunch of high clouds are streaming over the area as a system gets revved up in the Northern High Plains. High pressure takes over the region keeping conditions fairly pleasant.

Did you forget about the clear skies?

Victoria-Weather stumbled on the forecast high last Friday in Toledo, but we came in hot for the Saturday morning lows and totally redeemed ourselves. Or should I say, we came in cold, remembering what happens with clear skies overnight, especially when coupled with a north wind. The low was even cooler than we forecast, but we had the coolest morning low on Saturday, allowing us to catch up with The Weather Channel and Accuweather, who were a bit better on that Friday high, for a three way draw.
Actuals: Friday, High 59, low 36
Saturday – High 65, Low 35

Grade: B – C

Large tornado sweeps through North Dallas

Check out this video, perhaps one of the scariest tornado captures I’ve seen.

A worst case scenario is a large tornado in a populated area, and it is compounded when it moves through at night. This super cell moved through the north Dallas suburbs in a coming together of some of the worst possible circumstances.

It could have been significantly worse though. The storm touched down just 15 miles away from AT&T Stadium, where the Dallas Cowboys were playing the Philadelphia Eagles in front of 75,000 people. In fact, despite the strength of the tornado (I’m guessing it will be at least an EF-3), and it’s long track, there were no reports of fatalities, and only 3 serious injuries.

The NWS hasn’t plotted the track anywhere yet, pending storm surveys, but in real time, the Google Maps traffic report was a good proxy for estimating the storm track:

The storm impacted many commercial areas, wrecking, in what I have seen so far, a Home Depot, a Land Cruiser dealership, and the home of the Dallas Stars’ Tyler Seguin.

The damage reports will continue to roll in, and they will likely continue to provide stark imagery. Keep an eye on the NWS Fort Worth office Twitter feed for updates on the storm surveys. As the picture of damage becomes clearer, we will likely appreciate more how lucky we were that it wasn’t worse.

Nestor slides through the Southeast

What would eventually become Tropical Storm Nestor formed late in the week, and dissipated shortly thereafter. It made landfall with a maximum sustained wind speed of 50mph. There was a storm in New England that had stronger winds than that.

Still, Nestor did provide his fair share of problems. When the center of Nestor arrived, it had been preceded by an off center, heavy batch of rain. Nestor is still a little off kilter. Note that his center in this radar image is actually around Tallahasee.

That’s a lot of rain, but certainly by looking at it, you wouldn’t say that it looks like a tropical storm, would you?

The primary impact the storm had, aside from the typical rain that comes with tropical storms, was a bout of tornadoes east of Tampa Bay. You can see where they ended up on the SPC storm reports.

There haven’t been the severe reports today out of the storm, and now that Nestor is on shore, he will continue to fall apart and get shoved back off shore.

Nestor has been pretty unremarkable storm, particularly when taken in contrast to some of the tough storms in recent years and months, but one needs only to look at the video below to understand that tropical features should always be given some respect.

Between two storms

Last weekend was a wet one in New England, and then, perhaps you heard, there was a ‘bomb’ cyclone later in this past week. As is often our luck, when we pulled the forecast for Boston, we found it between the two wet and windy spells. Temperatures were comfortable, especially without wind or rain. Speaking of comfortable, Victoria-Weather won this forecast… comfortably.
Actuals: Sunday, High 67, Low 53
Monday – High 64, Low 52

Grade : A-C

Toledo, Ohio

Fall colors are in full bloom across the Great Lakes. Are there any leaf peepers headed to northwest Ohio?

At 1152AM, ET, Toledo was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 51 degrees. Toledo was on the back side of a strong system moving through New England, which resulted in a brisk northerly flow across the region. there was a tendril of clearer skies right over Toledo, but the back end of the clouds is over Wisconsin and Illinois.
After some clear air gets to Toledo, the primary influencer will be a tropical disturbance developing now in the Gulf of Mexico, headed northeast across north Florida towards the Carolinas, which will sap moisture from a cold front advancing through the Upper Midwest. Ahead of the front, and on the back of the tropical feature, warmer air will filter into Toledo, with clouds likely across Lake Erie.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, much less wind, High 56, low 35
Saturday – Partly cloudy and warmer, High 64, Low 36

TWC: Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. high 56, low 36
Saturday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds., High 65, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine High 57, low 36
Saturday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 66, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 55, Low 38
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of frost in the morning. Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 41
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 41

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 38
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 42

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 57, Low 36
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, low 38

A look at the satellite shows that cloud cover at the western flank of the big storm on the east coast.

California in flames again

another autumn, another raging inferno in California. The drought ravaged state is once again in the crosshairs — Hold on, what’s that? California isn’t classified as being in a drought any longer?

The Saddle Ridge Fire is burning on the northern edge of the San Fernando Valley, safely ensconced in the “None” range of the drought monitory, as of October 10th. I assure you, a drought didn’t develop in the last few days, either. California had a very wet spring, which has allayed the drought in the area, including the San Fernando Valley.

Wildfires are a natural part of the rebirth of the southern California wilderness. It’s a very dry climate, and even if they are receiving the typical amount of precipitation, and this time of year usually features a few fires, aided by hot, brisk winds out of the Mojave, the so called Santa Ana’s. The Saddle Ridge Fre is dangerous, but it is not atypical.

This is making headlines simply because of the location. With populations growing, particularly on the west coast, these regular occurrences suddenly take on an even more menacing turn, as they start near populated areas with greater frequency, and ravage those same areas that may have been many miles away just a decade or two ago.

California is home to a host of potential disasters, and as the population continues to grow and sprawl, they become more and more likely to become catastrophes.

Boston, Massachusetts

Happy weekend, everyone! We’re going to stop in Beantown to see how life is now that we’ve finished with a nasty early season storm.

At 1254AM, ET, Boston was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 55 degrees. Some fog and clouds were settling in in the Berkshires and across Providence and South Boston, however it will be a race between clouds over the Cape and that fog, as temperatures should level off overnight if cloud cover encroaches. There is clear air over southern New England and in the Mid Atlantic, so if Boston is skirted by the clouds to the south, a foggy Sunday morning seems likely.
The dominant feature in the eastern US is a deep area of low pressure in Ontario, with an occluded front through New England and a cold front stretching to the Carolinas. Independent circulation at the occlusion will shift off shore through tomorrow morning, and will deepen into a mostly independent feature, strengthened via good jet support. The amplification looks to be underestimated by the models at this point, but is also going to remain well east of Boston, bringing perhaps some low clouds and a little bit of wind on Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66. Low 53
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 68, Low 52
Monday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 67, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and breaks of sun High 68, Low 54
Monday – Clouds and breaks of sun, High 67, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, HIgh 66, Low 49
Monday – A chance of showers between 9am and noon. Partly sunny HIgh 66, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 50
Monday – Partly sunny with a 30% chance of showers, High 64, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, HIgh 66, Low 50
Monday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 66, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 65, Low 51
Monday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 63, Low 49

The NWS and friends are going for the shower potential, but it isn’t a popular forecast elsewhere. 60s seem pretty tolerable for October. Here is the satellite, with clear skies ready to move north.

Lewiston, Maine

As the Northern Plains get pummeled by a historic early-season blizzard, we’re going to take a look at a locale that would probably bring visions of snow and crisp air to the mind, Lewiston, Maine! Surely they’re doing better than our neighbors in the Dakotas, right?

At 1056pm EDT, the temperature at Lewiston, ME was 51 degrees under fair skies. While a potent winter storm hits the Central US, a nor’easter is busy spinning its’ wheels off the Eastern Seaboard. It’s been pushing plenty of rain into Southern New England over the last 24 hours along with persistent northeasterly winds, causing coastal flooding in areas. While some shower activity may get close to the coast during the day Friday, we’re expecting the Lewiston area to remain dry. As the low finally gets moving towards Nova Scotia, some light shower activity may affect the area early Saturday morning before drying out for the rest of the day. It may not be a washout, but overall, not a great start to the weekend weather-wise.

Friday: Overcast. High 58, Low 43.
Saturday: Cooler with scattered morning showers. High 54, Low 43.

NWS: Friday: Overcast. High 57, Low 44.
Saturday: Showers expected. High 53, Low 46.

AW: Friday: Rather cloudy. High 57, Low 43.
Saturday: Rain and drizzle in the morning. High 51, Low 44.

NWS: Friday: Mostly cloudy, couple of late showers. High 58, Low 43.
Saturday: Scattered showers. High 53, Low 43.

WB: Friday: Mostly cloudy. High 55, Low 44.
Saturday: Scattered showers in morning. High 53, Low 46.

WN: Friday: Mostly cloudy, showers late. High 58, Low 43.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 53, Low 43.

FIO: Friday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 61, Low 45.
Saturday: Possible drizzle in the morning. High 55, Low 48.

The Lewiston area is dry currently, but those rain showers sitting offshore will slowly rotate their way inland during the weekend.