Jackson, Tennessee

Well, Ryan’s hiatus begins today, so for the next week+, you get me! All Anthony, all the time! Well, until Ryan comes back anyways. Let’s hope I do alright in my relief stint for our starting weather quarterback. So, without further adieu, let’s get on to the forecast! Today takes us down to western Tennessee, someplace I imagine is warmer than the Upper Midwest these days. Will their trick-or-treating be under pleasant conditions? Let’s find out if that’s the case!

At 153pm CDT, the temperature at Jackson, TN was 65 degrees under fair skies. A cold front is working its way through the Mid- and Lower-MS River Valley regions this evening, and will kick up a few showers over the area as it traverses the area tonight into tomorrow morning. These showers shouldn’t be too heavy, and any threat of lightning from these should remain to the north and west, so I wouldn’t worry too much about this system. There might be a stray shower lingering over the area tomorrow morning, but as the system continues to push off to the east throughout the day, skies will clear up. Strong high pressure will take hold from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains so quiet conditions are expected into the weekend. Halloween might be a tad brisk around trick-or-treating time, as some gusty northwest winds will usher in some cooler air, so might wanna add a layer under your kids’ costume, just in case. Enjoy the weekend you ghoulish readers!

Friday: Light morning shower possible, clearing by late afternoon. High 54, Low 36.
Saturday: Sunny skies, but cooler. High 48, Low 31.

TWC: Friday: Morning clouds, an isolated shower. Afternoon sun, but winds increasing. High 55, Low 37.
Saturday: Sunny. High 51, Low 32.

AW: Friday: Sunny, breezy, and cooler. High 58, Low 37.
Saturday: Sunny but cool. High 50, Low 30.

NWS: Friday: Sunny and breezy. High 55, Low 36.
Saturday: Sunny, a bit cooler. High 49, Low 30.

WB: Friday: Sunny. High 55, Low 36.
Saturday: Sunny. High 48, Low 30.

WN: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 55, Low 30.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 48, Low 30.

Here we see some showers off to the west of Jackson, TN, which could affect the area in the early morning hours. They’ll be long gone by the time your kids head out for trick-or-treating however!


Arid in Abilene

The tail end of the boundary that shifted through Abilene didn’t spark off any showers, just a bunch of mid to high-level clouds. A pretty nice couple of days for the area, which saw high temps remain fairly steady. Victoria-Weather easily took home the top spot with low temperature forecasts magnitudes better than the competition.

Tuesday: High 77, Low 55.
Wednesday: High 78, Low 49.
Forecast Grade: B

Fayetteville, Arkansas

This will be my last forecast for a couple of days, and it couldn’t be for a more scenic stretch of America.

At 953PM, CT, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 44 degrees with clear skies. The elevation seems to be playing a minor role in temperature valuations at present, as Fayetteville was seeing temperatures reading a bit cooler than other locations surrounding it. In general, though, the entire Ozarks region was under a dome of high pressure.
A broad upper level trough is going to move south towards the Great Lakes, but is fairly weak. However, at the base of the upper level trough, there will be a pair of perturbations riding the wave. There isn’t a dramatic cold pool diving into the Ozarks as the trough swings through, but these low level eddies will provide just enough instability for some light showers to rotate through the central Plains to wards the Ozarks tomorrow afternoon. Things will clear out for Friday, but a bit of reinforcement will come for the cold air already in place.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with some light rain, High 71, Low 38
Friday – Mostly sunny, chilly, High 53, Low 30.

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy HIgh 70, Low 45
Friday – Partly Cloudy HIgh 53, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 69, Low 40
Friday – Cooler with plenty of sunshine High 53, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 39
Friday – Sunny High 52, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 68, Low 42
Friday – Mostly sunny. High 52, Low 40

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 70, Low 39
Friday – Mostly sunny. HIgh 52, Low 39

Strange that mine is the only forecast that won’t be dry, given that everyone has such a dramatic drop in temperatures. Weatherbug and WeatherNation did not have hourly forecasts that extended long enough to account for the non standard low. Satellite is pretty quiet right now. Have a great Halloween, and I will see you in November!

Logan, Utah

Another day, another adventure. Today, we’re going to northern Utah. One more day of posting for me, then it’s an extended break, and a whole lotta Anthony.

At 651PM, MT, Logan was reporting a temperature of 54 degrees with clear skies. Dew points are in the teens, which suggests temperatures are going to be cooling off rapidly this evening.
A weak ridge is moving through the Great Basin towards the Four Corners, which will maintain the fairly benign pattern across the area today. Expect warm afternoon highs and chilly overnight lows.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 59, Low 24
Thursday – Sunny, High 65, Low 27

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 30
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 70, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 61, low 23
Thursday – Partly sunny, High 66, Low 27

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 62, Low 26
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 66, low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 60, Low 28
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy Hgh 63, Low 27
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 32

Not too shabby. Super clear all the way across Utah.

Abilene, Texas

The weather through much of the country has been very pleasant lately. Let’s see if west Texas continues that trend.

At 1052AM, CT, Abilene was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies. Dew points were in the low 50s, as they were just to the northwest of a dry line, though even that boundary was relatively docile. A jet trough in the Rockies was indicative of a cold front that will be emerging over the central Plains over the 12 hours or so.
The boundary will become evident over the Plains later this evening, but as the trough moves out of the mountains, the southern reach of the boundary will be erode into nothing. Some cooler air will still spill into Abilene, but there isn’t going too be enough of an air mass change for precipitation to be a concern Lingering moisture found east of Abilene may produce some clouds across the area that limit temperatures further still, and is often the case with the tail end of advancing boundaries, this moisture will be left behind. There doesn’t seem to be an infusion of drier air coming to Abilene any time soon, at the surface or aloft, so expect some mostly cloudy conditions over the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 55
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 75, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 75, Low 64
Wednesday – Sunny, High 76, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cooler High 77, Low 60
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice High 77, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 72, Low 55
Wednesday – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 75, Low 57
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy High 75, Low 52

And that’s about it.Satellite is showing some high clouds, but it’s not as stormy as this boundary makes it look. You can see the sharp back edge to the clouds, suggesting subsidence and cooler, dryer air behind the boundary, but it’s really not as storm laden as things appear.

Temperate in the tropics

Summer time in south Florida can be nearly unpleasant because it is so warm. Upper 80s, humid and with an occasional afternoon thunderstorm. The nice thing for locals is that the snowbirds aren’t down there, crowding things out. The weather in Naples, however, portends to a return of tourist season on the southwest coast. Temperatures were in the low 80s and there was no moisture to speak of. In short, it was a very comfortable set of days for anyone visiting, and even for the locals. It was a pretty easy forecast, and Accuweather nearly nailed it.
Actuals – Saturday – High 83, Low 66
Sunday – High 83, low 64

Grade: A

Recapping the first day of “marginal risk”

A couple days ago, I noted that the Storm Prediction Center was introducing a new element to their thunderstorm outlooks, adding ‘marginal’ and ‘enhanced’ to the possible categories. It took until yesterday to have a “marginal” severe threat show up in the outlook, with a sliver of northern California and southwest Oregon falling under the gun with a cold front coming ashore. How does this look when you verify it against storm reports?
Marginal verification

That’s about what we should expect, I think. There was nothing organized, but there were a few isolated thunderstorms that reached severe criteria. The area wasn’t very large, and it’s sparsely populated, so we probably saw fewer severe storms than a marginal outlook will typically bring, but this was a good introduction. We will get to test the new outlooks a couple more times this week, as a front moving through the Plains and Great Lakes has led the SPC to include Marginal outlooks for Monday and Tuesday.


Naples, Florida to Washington, DC

Another day, another road trip that will last almost exactly 2 days. The trip is 1062 miles and will spendd quite a bit of time on I-95. As a result, the pace of the trip will be about 66.7mph. Cruisin’ That will put us more than halfway to our destination, but only just. The day will be through after 533.5 miles, or thereabout. Let’s venture off to the nation’s capital, though it will be tough to leave these beaches behind.

DAY ONE (Sunday)
The southeast is presently outside of the daily thunderstorm season and currently under a nice dome of high pressure. Temperatures aren’t going to be overbearingly hot and sticky, so stopping for lunch or gas or just driving with the windows down will be pretty nice, especially in Florida. The trek will take us through Jacksonville and Savannnah and eventually to Yemassee, South Carolina, which is in the far southern part of the state.

DAY TWO (Monday)
High pressure is retreating into the ocean at this time, and by the time we leave Yemassee,, a weak area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes and the back end of the ridge will couple to induce a southwesterly flow pumping warm air into the region. Those pleasant temperatures we saw as far north as Yemassee will filter right on up to DC. It will be a great day for checking out some monuments.

The…. Weeks ahead. 10/26/14-11/15/14

So, here’s what’s going to happen in the coming weeks. I’m going to be going on a hiatus, starting on Thursday of next week (the 30th) and won’t be back until the 11th of November. Anthony will be taking over full time during my two weeks off, but he will also be taking a vacation the weekend of the 8th and 9th of November, and the 10th will make up any verifications that we are missing. I’ll jump in head first on the 11th. This is a tentative schedule. Anthony is more part time than I am, and a rigorous posting schedule may not be as feasible, but he will try. No maps for today’s schedule post, just a whole lot of text.

10/27: Abilene, Texas
10/28: Logan, Utah
10/29: Fayetteville, Arkansas
10/30: Jackson, Tennessee
10/31: Los Angeles, California; Road Trip from Jackson to Los Angeles
11/2: Columbus, Ohio
11/3: Duluth, Minnesota; Road Trip from Columbus to Duluth.
11/4: Bloomington, Indiana
11/7: Atlanta, Georgia; Road Trip from Portland, Oregon to Atlanta
11/11: Elkhart, Indiana
11/12: Napa, California
11/15: Vineland, New Jersey

Naples, Florida

We’re headed down to southwest Florida, and the beautiful city of Naples, not far from my parents’ home away from home, Estero.

At 653PM, ET, Naples was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with mostly sunny skies. An area of low pressure over the northern Bahamas was inducing an easterly flow across southern Florida, which is helping to stabilize the area, leading to a beautiful evening on the Gulf Coast.
Flow will switch to come out of the west-northwest, not only at the surface but aloft as well. There may be a little bit of haze in the morning as a result, but without shear, there won’t be a threat for thunderstorms. Instead, expect a gorgeous weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 65
Sunday – Sunny skies, High 83, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 84, Low 65
Sunday – Sunny High 84, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 82, Low 66
Sunday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 83, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 81, Low 66
Sunday – Sunny High 82, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 65
Sunday – Sunny High 82, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 81, Low 66
Sunday – Mostly Sunny High 82, Low 66

That’s quite the dreamy forecast, isn’t it? Not too hot, sunny, on a beach. Here is the satellite, showing the area of low pressure shifting away from the Sunshine State

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