Road Trip

Manchester, New Hampshire to Pittsfield, Massachusetts

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Tomorrow’s road trip is going to be a pretty quick one, only 150 miles from Southern NH to Western MA. It’s over 50% shorter than the road trip I’m actually taking to IL tomorrow to see family. Odd how that works out sometimes.

It will be a relatively short road trip, but unfortunately, it’s going to be a wet one as low pressure is lifting over the Northeast and New England tomorrow. Rain showers will spread into Southern NH overnight and will continue to linger throughout the region tomorrow as we head westward into far southern VT before turning south on I-91 into MA. It’ll be a soggy day as we pull into Pittsfield around noon, and showers will continue throughout the rest of the day.

Forecast

Pittsfield, Massachusetts

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Tonight, we head up to New England and take a gander at what’s happening in the Berkshires of Massachusetts!

At 1054pm EDT, the temperature at Pittsfield, MA was 53 degrees under fair skies. A slow-moving low pressure system is found over the Mid-Atlantic states, spreading copious amounts of rain out ahead of it into the Northeast US and soon, New England. This area of low pressure has been taking its’ sweet time since it developed over the Southern Plains a few days ago and creeped its way into the Deep South. Rain showers will spread over Western MA overnight tonight and last throughout the day Wednesday as the low traverses the Northeast and New England. Rain showers will taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the low lifts out of New England into Canada, with clouds decreasing throughout the day as weak high pressure moves in.

Wednesday: Rain showers throughout the day. High 57, Low 47.
Thursday: Rain showers in morning, decreasing clouds throughout the day. High 57, Low 42.

TWC: Wednesday: Rain. High 54, Low 46.
Thursday: Morning showers. High 53, Low 45.

AW :Wednesday: Cloudy, a little rain and cooler. High 55, Low 45.
Thursday: Cloudy. High 56, Low 46.

NWS: Wednesday: Rain. High 55, Low 44.
Thursday: Chance of showers, fog early. High 60, Low 45.

WB: Wednesday: Rain. High 54, Low 45.
Thursday: Rain showers. High 52, Low 47.

WN: Wednesday: Cloudy with light rain. High 54, Low 45.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 60, Low 45.

FIO: Wednesday: Rain starting overnight, continuing until evening. High 55, Low 44.
Thursday: Early morning showers, foggy overnight. High 53, Low 42.

Yeah… there’s plenty of rain moving in, as seen by the Northeast US radar composite. This low pressure has been slow to move all week, and the next couple of rain-soaked days won’t be any different.

Story

A sure sign that spring is here

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Finally, at long last all the snow that has fallen across the country has mostly melted as 60s extend all the way to the Canadian border. There isn’t much kinetic weather to talk about tonight, aside from a few thunderstorm in the Abilene area, so instead, I will pass along this map of the current watches and warnings for the country.

It’s a little difficult to make out, but the center of the country is littered with green dashes, representing river flood watches and warnings. Be careful around moving waterways like creeks and rivers, especially where snow is finally melting, from the North Rockies all the way through the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, as water will be a bit high.

Verification

Winter’s last gasp

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There have been a lot of false alarms, looking at the past few weeks, in which we said that winter was nearly through, but I think the system that rolled through the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic early last week was proooobably it. It clipped Utica, our forecast site way back when, and brought temperatures from comfortable spring time temperatures down to below freezing, with a smudge of snow. Victoria-Weather and Weatherbug were kindred spirits, drawing level on this forecast occasion.
Actuals: Monday (the 16th) – .35 inches of rain, High 46, Low 33
Tuesday – .03 inches of rain and snow, High 36, Low 30

Grade: B-D

Forecast

Pocatello, Idaho

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Off to the Northern Rockies to see how the start of this week will fare!

At 815pm MDT, the temperature at Pocatello, ID was 67 degrees (that sensor seems a bit off). An area of low pressure found over WY is connected to a cold front that runs up into Central Canada and trails a boundary over northern UT/NV. This area of low pressure will shift out towards the Northern Plains during the day Monday, keeping a healthy amount of precip over Southern MT (with some hefty snow totals up in the mountains) and rain/spotty thunderstorm activity over south-central ID tonight. This activity will continue pushing eastward with the low overnight, bringing some precip to the Pocatello area before dawn. After sunrise, the precip should have shifted off to the east of the Pocatello area, drying them out for the rest of the day with decreasing clouds. High pressure builds down over the region behind the low, making for a pretty nice midweek period.

Monday: Some early morning rain shower/isolated thunderstorm activity. Drying out by dawn with decreasing clouds during afternoon. High 55, Low 38.
Tuesday: Sunny and warmer. High 63, Low 30.

TWC: Monday: Rain in early morning hours, then becoming mostly sunny. High 57, Low 41.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 64, Low 32.

AW: Monday: Breezy with clouds and sun, an isolated morning thundershower possible. High 57, Low 42.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 32.

NWS: Monday: Chance of showers, thunderstorm possible after noon. High 57, Low 44.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 64, Low 35.

WB: Monday: Chance of morning storms. High 54, Low 44.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 62, Low 32.

WN: Monday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 57, Low 44.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 64, Low 35.

FIO: Monday: Rain until morning, then clearing. High 57, Low 42.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy until evening. High 64, Low 36.

There’s a bunch of ground clutter around the Pocatello area, but the echoes found off near Twin Falls and Jackpot are indeed real. This spotty activity will affect the region into midday tomorrow before making way to pleasant conditions the next few days.

Story

A pattern change

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For most of the spring, the country has been plagued by a broad, slow moving wave right across the center of the country. It’s been spectacularly unpleasant, with Arctic air lingering over the continent of North America for the last couple of weeks, introducing record lows and several late season snow storms.

Fortunately, the tide seems to be turning. The mean jet flow is finally forecast to shift north, indicating that the chilly air will finally be pent up where it belongs, at least for the long term. As you can see with the forecast jet stream analysis for Monday, the continuous stream lies just north of the Canadian border.

Thee will still be a threat for a cold air invasion late next week, but not nearly on the scale that we’ve seen for the beginning of the month, as the pattern has become much shorter in wavelength. Any period of cooler air will be briefer, and won’t be able to sneak as far south.

The jet is retreating, along with the cold air, but it isn’t switching pattern immediately. The northern part of the country is simply moving closer to normal, rather than suddenly moving above normal.

Verification

Weather Wayback… Autumn came on time

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Back in September, just as summer ended and fall arrived, Anthony looked at the weather in Salt Lake City. We have had a tough time seeing the arrival of spring this year, but Salt Lake City had no delay in seeing fall arrive. A cold front swept through town, bringing temperatures down to an autumnal level, right when temperatures are supposed to be brought down to an autumnal level. SLC is in a deep valley, and they tend to dodge most of the significant weather, but the 21st and 22nd were cool and gray, just like it’s supposed to be in the fall. The Weather Channel secured victory for the day.
Actuals: September 21st – Rain reported, not measured High 58, Low 51
September 22nd – .01” of rain, High 53, Low 41

Grade B- C

Forecast

Anderson, South Carolina

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I think it is underrepresented just how many people live between Charlotte and Atlanta. One big town after another. Anderson isn’t even the biggest town in the mix. It’s not even the second largest town in the mix, behind Greenville and Spartanburg. Let’s give these forgotten upstaters a forecast, shall we?

At 956PM, ET, Anderson was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with clear skies. After a cold, rainy day Tuesday, most of the southeast has rebounded nicely. Winds were now southwesterly, tapping into more regionally appropriate air fresh from the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure is fleeting, however, as the mean jet continues to cut west to east through the middle of the country.
A weak shortwaved trough in the middle of the country will tail the feature that plagued the northern portion of the country recently, though with a more southerly approach. The feature will be unable to bring as much cold air south, and an inactive cold front will instead drape across the southern United States. When it moves through early tomorrow morning, it will do so without any fanfare, though Thursday will likely be a hair cooler than today. A well established, more permanent, but slight cooler batch of high pressure will settle in behind the front to take Anderson through the remainder of the work week.
Tomorrow – Early clouds, then clearing, High 70, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 70, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 68, Low 58
Friday – Mainly sunny.  High 68, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with some clouds, then sunshine High 69 Low 56
Friday – Plenty of sun High 68, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 68, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny breezy, High 68, Low 62
Friday – Sunny, High 67, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 57
Sunny – High 68, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning. High 70, Low 52
Sunny – Clear throughout the day. High 69, Low 40

So not a lot going on in Anderson, so we turn to the satellite imagery. I can’t get over how good these new overlays look.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 07 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C07_G16_s20181090232240_e20181090235025_c20181090235060.nc

Verification

A turn for the worse

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There Bridgeport was, just minding their own business, enjoying a spring weekend with temperatures in the mid 60s on Saturday. Delightful! Well, overnight, a big area of low pressure in the Great Lakes approached, and its friend, Gulfstream Moisture, rushed to meet it. This lead to a much cooler, drizzly day on Sunday, completely turning the weekend on its head. Ultimately, the top forecast went to The Weather Channel, so you can blame them for things getting so nasty as the weekend ended.
Actuals : Saturday – High 64, Low 44
Sunday – .46 inches of rain, High 45, Low 37

Grade A –C

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