Labor Day weekend saved!

It looked like it might have been a little dicey this weekend in Toledo, but as luck would have it, most picnics and outings were spared from thunderstorms. There was a little bit of rain on Monday, but it was only .06″ and it lasted less than an hour. Temperatures climbed all the way to 88 yesterday with the dearth of expected thunderstorm activity. The Weather Channel and National Weather Service grabbed the top spot.
Actuals: Sunday – High 84, Low 72
Monday – .06 inches of rain, High 88, Low 69

Grade: B

Anderson, South Carolina

Northwestern, or Upstate South Carolina is a pretty well populated segment of the country. Some experts predict that one day it will be a part of a megalopolis corridor from Atlanta to Raleigh, because it’s already so well populated. That’s further into the forecast than this forecast intends to explore.

At 856PM, ET, Anderson was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with clear skies. For the first time in several months, an upper level trough, albeit shortwaved, will have an impact on the Piedmont tomorrow. It’s expected to swing through the northern Great Lakes tomorrow, associated with a surface boundary that presently lies north of the Ohio River. The boundary and the surface low are both initially going to work to draw moisture northward through the region, which may produce some clouds, morning fog and isolated showers.
Upper level forces will steer the surface low almost due north into Nunavut thru the period, which in turn will slow down the front’s southerly advance on Tuesday. Still, with newly introduced surface moisture and a bushel of warm air, along with a surface boundary working its way through town, there should be more than enough instability to produce scattered showers and storms through the day on Wednesday, do they will be more reflective of typical summer convection than indicative of an autumnal change.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with some showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 93, Low 72
Wednesday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 94, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 94, Low 73
Wednesday – Isolated T-Storms High 94, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and warm high 92, Low 71
Wednesday – Partly sunny, warm and humid; a thunderstorm in parts of the area in the afternoon High 91, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog before 10am High 92, Low 70
Wednesday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 92, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Patchy Fog High 91, Low 74
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 91, Low 70

Hot and humid, but just how hot and how humid? Like, so humid it rains? The radar is out in Greenville, but you can see that there are a few leftover clouds in central South Carolina.

Hot and dry for Labor Day weekend

Things worked out as planned in Farmington, with temperatures climbing into the 90s and the skies staying sunny through the beginning of the Holiday weekend. I can confirm that today, the end of that weekend is just as sunny and just as warm. It was a relatively easy forecast, but temperatures dropped off cooler than expected yesterday morning, so the scores won’t look quite as grand. The National Weather Service earned the narrow victory.
Actuals: Saturday – High 89, Low 54
Sunday – High 91, Low 52

Grade: B

Boston, Massachusetts

We are off to the Bay State, but Boston is not the City by the Bay, so that’s sort of odd, right?

At 551PM, ET, Boston was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 82. Westerly flow dominated the entire state in the wake of a prefrontal trough, but rain fall across the region, including thunderstorms ocer Connecticut and Long Island Sound gave the accurate impression that the front itself was still to the northwest.
In fact, the boundary is being analyzed as lying in eastern Canada at this time. Mid level flow runs into the boundary, and the offshore nature of the surface flow is providing a great environment for coastal convection. The associated trough bringing the wet weather to the area is going to dissolve under the force of a stronger ridge, but lingering instability and moisture will remain around Beantwon through tomorrow afternoon, and a few showers and storms can’t be ruled out. As a stronger wave moves into the picture on Tuesday, Boston should stabilize for much of the morning, but a well conceived cold front will be knocking on the door by Tuesday night. The low itself will be rocketing north towards Nunavut, but the jet trough is going to plunge all the way to New England, pointing to the overall strength of the system.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, but generally mostly sunny, High 86, Low 70
Tuesday – Clearing and much warmer, with some late thunder, High 89, Low 68

Tomorrow – PM T-Storms High 89, Low 72
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny High 89, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm; humid High 84, Low 71
Tuesday – Very warm and humid with periods of clouds and sunshine High 88, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10am. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy High 84, Low 72
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, 85, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning…then becoming partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog in the morning High 83, Low 73
Tuesday – Mostly sunny (showers and storms after 11). High 84, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow -Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 84, Low 72
Tuesday – Partly Cloudy High 83, Low 70

I’m surprised that there aren’t many forecasts for showers and storms on Tuesday. System looks good and Boston is always really unlucky. Looks like some damp weather on the way tonight.

Dodging drops

I noted on Thursday when the forecast for Lima was issued that the success or failure of the forecast would come down to precipitation forecasts, and that was accurate. The Weather Channel was the only outlet to keep Lima dry, and indeed, showers and storms artfully dodged northwestern Ohio. A little shower came close last night, but faded just before it arrived. Strong storms veered north of the area and heavy rain stayed in southern Ohio. TWC wasn’t the best precipitation forecaster though, as that honor went to WeatherNation. Those two outlets ended up tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Friday – High 89, Low 61
Saturday – High 84, Low 70

Grade: A

Toledo, Ohio

Good morning, all. We’re off to northwest Ohio this weekend. Shall we get underway?

At 852AM, ET, Toledo was already reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies. Despite the warm start to the day, temperatures should be somewhat stifled by high dew points. A cold front working into the region will also bring some afternoon showers and potentially a thunderstorm, further keeping temperatures at bay but providing an unfortunate beginning to the weekend.
By tomorrow morning, the front will have passed through town, and heavy precipitation is not expected, but there will be a dirty flow behind the primary boundary, and clouds and light rain will still be expected. A sharper upper level trough than the one providing today’s rain is going to move into the Upper Midwest by Monday, which will help ensure that tomorrow’s cooldown is short lived, but also that an oscillating flow will keep things unstable. Clouds and a little bit of rain are possible through the day on Monday, with the upper level trough induced cold front approaching very late Monday evening.
Tomorrow – Overcast with a few showers – High 82 Low 68
Monday – Mostly cloudy, some thunder in the afternoon, heavier rain late, High 85 Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered T-Storms High 82, Low 70
Monday – PM T-Storms
Potential for severe thunderstorms High 86, Lo 68

AW: Tomorrow – More clouds than sun; humid with a shower or thunderstorm around High 82, Low 66
Monday – Warm and humid with more clouds than sun; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in spot High 86, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – Warm and humid with more clouds than sun; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in spot High 83, Low 70
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then partly sunny in the afternoon. High 83, Low 70
Monday – Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. HIgh 83, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Storms HIgh 82, Low 70
Monday – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 82, Low 70

Everyone has showers and storms in the forecast, but I don’t think it will be that dire. There should be plenty of dry weather for the Labor Day weekend cookouts that are undoubtedly going on across Toledo. Satellite looks pretty clear this morning despite the showery forecast.

The Week Ahead 8/31/14 – 9/6/14

We’re headed into the Labor Day weekend and the unofficial end to summer. Will we get any excitement in the holiday weekend?


Sunday – Boston, Massachusetts
Monday – Anderson, South Carolina
Tuesday – Owensboro, Kentucky
Friday – Madison, Wisconsin; Road Trip from Brownsville, Texas to Madison
Saturday – Colorado Springs, Colorado

Farmington, New Mexico

Time for a little forecast fun in the Land of Enchantment.

At 453PM, MT, Farmington was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 82 degrees Both the local topography and temperature were helping to produce localized low pressure centers and was resulting in a somewhat breezy afternoon.
The flow aloft is beginning it’s autumnal slide into the northern US, which is helping to draw focus away from the Four Corners, and moisture will flow more aggressively into pressure centers rather than meandering into the Rockies. Breezy conditions remain possible, but Farmington should expect dry conditions. As an upper level trough slides through the Northern High Plains, expect even windier conditions.
Tomorrow – Sunny, breezy, high 91, Low 54
Sunday – Sunny and even windier High 89, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny Hgh 90, Low 54
Sunday – Sunny, High 90, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun High 90, Low 52
Sunday – Mostly sunny; breezy in the afternoon High 89, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny Hgh 90, Low 54
Sunday – Sunny, High 90, Low 57

WB – Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 85, Low 55
Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 86, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 90, Low 57
Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 91, Lost 57

Look at the Rockies. It sure is quite a bit quieter than it’s been the last few months. Farmington

Lima, Ohio

This is not a forecast for Peru. We’ve never done that before.

At 1153AM, ET, Lima was reporting clouds and a temperature of 73 degrees. High pressure has developed over the Great Lakes, but there was a swath of low clouds was in the midst of burning off along the southern Michigan border and into northwestern Ohio. An area of low pressure over the Upper Midwest will help siphon warm moist air north into the Great Lakes.
An upper level ridge will hold firm across the region through the day tomorrow, causing the boundary over the western Great Lakes to stall and deliver torrential rain to Wisconsin, Illinois and the UP of Michigan, while allowing for a dry end to the week in Lima. As the weekend begins, the ridge will break down, and a weak upper level trough will begin to move into the area. The surface low pressure will be lifting towards Labrador, which will limit the energy working into northwestern Ohio, so the heavy precipitation seen to the west will be unlikely in Lima.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 55
Saturday – Rain expected, particularly in the afternoon, High 84 Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 84, Low 60
Saturday – Partly Cloudy High 87, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Warm and humid with intervals of clouds and sun; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 85, Low 59
Saturday – Variable clouds with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later; very warm and humid High 89, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 60
Saturday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Partly sunny, High 86, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (late rain).High High 85, Low 60
Saturday – Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall High 86, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 84, Low 61
Saturday – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Showers High 86, Low 70

That is a very wide array of temperature forecasts. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Rain will definitely be the primary factor in who wins and loses in Lima. Satellite shows the clouds that are still hanging on in Lima

Autumn begins to find its way in

It was a balmy 87 degrees on Tuesday afternoon in Rochester, but a cold front moved through in the morning hours Wednesday and changed the atmosphere fairly dramatically. Temperatures dropped by 10 degrees on Wednesday afternoon, and temperatures were still cooling off after nightfall. Victoria-Weather nearly aced this particular forecast, and comes away with a victory.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 87, Low 62
Wednesday – .02 inches of rain, High 78, Low 59

Grade: A

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