Jacksonville, Florida

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We have trekked out to Washington quite a bit recently (including a forecast for Yakima that didn’t quite get published until I noticed it hadn’t gone out right now) but now, we will be going exactly to the opposite side of the country.

At 1156PM, ET, Jacksonville was reporting a temperature of 63 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. This is likely a bit of an aberration, as most sites across the region are cloud free, and the satellite imagery shows most of the sunshine state enjoying some moonshine tonight. The remnants of a boundary over the southeast lingers from Georgia to Mississippi in the form of some high clouds, though that is all that threatens tonight.
High pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas will ensure Jacksonville will stay dry and mostly sunny on Tuesday. There is a weak low level disturbance over the Mississippi Delta that will continue to unravel as it shifts to the east, but Wednesday is going to look a little bit bleaker with a few more clouds and an isolated shot at a shower or thunderstorm.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a spot of rain, High 83, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 87, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 86, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 85, Low 64
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy and very warm; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 86, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 86, Low 62
Wednesday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy, High 85, Low 64
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the morning then chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 84, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 62
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 88, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 61
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 67

Here is the satellite graphic for the evening. Just a few clouds to the north, while Jacksonville can settle in for the night with no problems.

Drips and drab

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One day, I will stop trying to find cute names for these verifications, but today is not that day. Victoria’s Thursday was drab, with overcast keeping temperatures on the low end, while there was a little bit of light drizzle as low pressure in the northern US entrained flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Victoria-Weather had the best temperature forecast for the day, but we, along with the second best temperature forecaster (Forecast.io) missed on precipitation, and thus, V-W dropped into a 4-way tie with Accuweather, the Weather Service and WeatherNation. Congratulations to Accuweather, who finally had their first forecast win of the year, even if it was just a quarter share!
Actuals: Wednesday – High 78, Low 51
Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 59

Grade: B-C

Coming soon…

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Weather continues, and we’re getting to the busiest time of year. Surely, we will have some fun things to talk about in the various forecasts ahead.

Monroe, Louisiana
Road trip from Pensacola, Florida to Monroe

Hickory, North Carolina

Sacramento, California
Road Trip from Hickory to Sacramento

Des Moines, Iowa

Evansville, Indiana

Yakima, Washington

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We’re taking another trip to Washington, this time to the south central part of the state. This could be a tough forecast, thanks to the position between some mountain ranges, an at the western reaches of our observation network. How will this go?

AT 1153AM, PT, Yakima was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with overcast skies. A shark trough was stretching through the western US, with an area of low pressure centered off the coast of Eureka, California, but everywhere through the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies was congested with clouds and the threat of mountain snow and rain.
The center of low pressure at the surface will sink further south, while the upper level trough will attempt to pivot east. High pressure will nose into western Washington and attempt to cut the low off over the central California Coast. This will bring some warmer, sunnier conditions to Washington, however there is certainly a chance for some lingering fog in the Yakima Valley, particularly in the mornings.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny by afternoon, some fog in the morning, High 64, Low 35
Tuesday – Sunny, High 66, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 68, Low 32
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies.High 69, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 67, Low 31
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and nice High 69, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,  High 64, Low 34
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing, High 66, Low 32
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 64, Low 34
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, Low 32
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 35

Here is a look at the western US and the satellite. There is so much cloud cover it’s tough to discern the map.

Going rogue

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Last week, I described Weatherbug’s forecast for Anderson as “rogue” as they were a touch cooler than everyone else, and were the only outlet to introduce rain into the forecast. The temperatures were a few degrees warmer than Weatherbug’s forecast, however on Tuesday, as they rightly told us, there were a few light rain showers over the central Indiana community. Thanks to the penalty for missed precipitation forecasts, Weatherbug’s forecast surpassed several other outlets who foresaw clear conditions, and they won the day
Actuals: Monday, High 53, Low 41
Tuesday – Trace of precipitation, High 41, Low 35

Grade: C

Yuma, Arizona

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Good morning. We’ve made it to the weekend, even if our days at home don’t make it feel that way. We’re taking a look at Yuma today, one of the oldest cities in Arizona.

At 657AM, PT, Yuma was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 58 degrees. The temperature was cool, but the real surprise was the dew points that were in the upper 40s, surprisingly moist for Yuma under high pressure.
A surface ridge will remain in place, but the lingering moisture in the area should keep temperatures from being unbearable. Upper level troughing is digging in from the north Pacific, with a late season area of low pressure headed towards northern California, which may work to bring in a little bit more of that latent moisture into Yuma by Sunday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 59
Sunday – A few clouds and a couple degrees cooler, High 83, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Dunny, High 84, Low 56
Sunday – Sunny, High 81, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 53
Sunday – Plenty of sun, high 81, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 84, Low 56
Sunday – Sunny High 83, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 53
Sunday – Sunny High 79, Low 54

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 56
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 54
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 81, Low 54

Sounds pretty nice as I get to experience an April icing event here at the home office. Check out the satellite, which shows that the moisture I was talking about isn’t leading to any clouds.

Victoria, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

This seems to always be a little confusing. I’m putting together a forecast for Victoria, Texas, and I’m happy to do so, but this site is named after my home town, which is in Minnesota, and we forecast for a lot of places, everywhere in the country, and not just Victorias. OK? All right, let’s forecast.

At 1151AM, CT, Victoria was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. A cold front lay off shore, extended from a line of severe thunderstorms in Mississippi and Alabama, and brisk north winds blew through the Gulf Coast. Upper level troughs were trailing meekly behind, bringing some bands of clouds to the Red River Valley, though Victoria looked good.
A shallow ridge will bring about pleasant and quiet weather tomorrow. A trough racing out of the Rockies will be undercut by an increasingly laminar jet over the southern US. While the through will parent a decent pressure fall, it will be robbed of moisture by the flow to the south. There should be just enough moisture entrainment across the Gulf, however, to lead to low clouds and fog in Victoria on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 52
Thursday – Overcast with fog at times, High 79, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 79, Low 55
Thursday – Variable clouds with thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon High 80, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 79, Low 54
Thursday – Cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm in the area High 77, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 53
Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 56
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High 78, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 53
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 80, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 60

I think these qualify as good days on the Gulf Coast. It’s not too chilly for locals, and it’s not too hot for guests. Check out he local satellite imagery, with a band of clouds that isn’t nearly as threatening as it appears.

Anderson, Indiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Indiana was among the states in the firing line for strong thunderstorms last night. There were a few spots of severe weather damage, but mostly, it was a wake up call for the beginning of the severe season.

At 153ET, Anderson was seeing a temperature of 55 degrees with overcast skies. A large area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes, and is now heavily occluded after bringing some widespread severe weather to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys last night. The southern edge of the shield of clouds over the center of circulation stretched over central Indiana, leading to the overcast in the region, and depressing temperatures in northern Indiana.
The jet is mostly laminar, which means there will be a slow transition from feature to feature. Don’t be surprised if it takes a while for the clouds to fully pull out of town. Fortunately, the slow pace of translation of surface features also means that the next round of wet weather will take it’s time reaching town as well, and Tuesday should provide for a calm, mostly cloudy day, though more cool air will filter in.
Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 53, Low 40
Tuesday – A little more sun, but cooler, High 46, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun in the morning followed by cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 47, Low 39
Tuesday – Cloudy skies High 42, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, periods of clouds and sun High 49, Low 40
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy and chilly High 43, Low 32

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 50, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy High 45, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until midday then becoming partly cloudy, High 46, Low 38
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, a 20% chance of rain showers in the afternoon High 40, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 50. Low 43
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 45, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 51, Low 40
Tuesday – Overcast throughout the day. High 47, Low 31

Weatherbug with what can only be described as a rogue forecast on Tuesday. Looking pretty similar across the board otherwise. The low on Monday may be low standard when all is said and done. Here is satellite, showing a big disc of clouds.

Daylong drizzle

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This has been a tough time in American history, and in Bremerton, Washington, on Tuesday and Wednesday, the weather decided to mimic the mood. It was cloudy and drizzly across Puget Sound through the middle of the week, exactly the solemn and somber atmosphere this era needs. The Weather Channel and Weatherbug ended up sharing honors.
Actuals: Tuesday – .31 inches of rain, High 45, Low 37
Wednesday – .15 inches of rain, High 49, Low 32

Grade: B – C

Coronavirus and the severe weather season

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I don’t need to tell you that the the novel coronavirus, causing Covid-19, has put the nation at a standstill. One of the few rays of light from this strange state of affairs is the respect shown to the doctors and epidemiologists who are offering advice and instructions. As a meteorologist, I am envious of these scientists who have grabbed the attention of the public and the powers that be, and have incited action in the face of grave danger.

Granted, there are many people who reject the threat of the disease out of hand, as many are also quick to dismiss a severe weather warning, and it is for a similar reason. While the disease is much more lethal than the flu, the threat it will cause severe symptoms in any particular individual is almost astronomically small. The highest rate of infection in the world right now is in San Marino, a tiny principality embedded within Italy, and even there, the fraction of the population that has been confirmed as having the virus is less than 1%. Similarly, among those who contract the virus are said to have a death rate of 4%. These numbers are all very small.

The problem is that those numbers are all coming at the same time, especially if nothing is done about it. Having 4% of 1% of the population dying of this would still account for 120,000 people passing away after 3,000,000 people get sick. Those numbers would paralyze the medical system across the country. The threat to any one individual is small, but the threat to the system is very large.

Consider the television meteorologist, who gets hate mail for interrupting programming to provide alerts when there is a dangerous situation in a particular viewing area. Just think of Nashville earlier this year, where a tornado tracked through the metropolitan area, killing dozens and injuring hundreds. Still, if you lived in Oak Hill, you were unaffected by the worst of the storms. There was no threat to you, but the Nashville system was heavily disrupted, and the TV Meteorologist had to warn for the whole system, even if it was simply an inconvenience in the south metro (and the far north metro, for that matter).

Now, that same TV Meteorologist might have to tackle the next severe outbreak, or even the next month’s worth of outbreaks, from their home office, rather than surrounded by colleagues and advanced monitoring equipment, as we all try to stay away from others to prevent the further spread of Covid-19. Of course, more people will be at home, hopefully paying attention to the television or radio when severe weather looms.

Of course, when a tornado or severe weather event strikes, it can lead to a mass trauma event. Many people need medical attention all at the same time. This pandemic is an ongoing, ever worsening mass trauma event as well. With the spring and severe weather coming, can any part of the country stand to bear another compounding disaster?

I fear we will find out this spring, and I am more fearful that we won’t like the answe,