Florence, South Carolina

Let’s hit the road down to the Palmetto State for a fun weekend forecast in Florence.

At 153PM, ET Florence was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with clear skies. Flow was light and variable across the region, a reflection of the stability aloft. There is a broad trough over the northeastern US, but it is a low enough amplitude that it is not directly impacting the Carolinas.
With the synoptic and tropical patterns fairly quiet, not much change is expected to come to Florence in the next couple of days. A light northwest flow is expected to mirror the stronger jet flow to the north, and Florence will benefit from a couple of sunny days, but the northwest flow will allow temperatures to dip as the work week begins.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny, High 69, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 80, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny. High 71, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, pleasant and warmer High 79, Low 48
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 71, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny, High 69, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 79, Low 48
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 69, Low 49

Pretty tranquil in eastern South Carolina to begin the week. We’ll see if the gentle northwest wind, or the cloudless skies will impact the high temperatures more. Here is the water vapor imagery, showing a broad area of subsidence over the Carolinas.


Stability in Florida

It’s not often people look at Florida and note that everything about it seems stable. You could have done that about the upper atmosphere around Palm Bay this week, though. Even with a slim chance for precipitation, that was almost too little. There was a trace on Tuesday, but the radar was dead as a doornail on Wednesday. In the end, it was Accweather who secured the top spot by a narrow margin.
Actuals: Tuesday – .01 inches of rain High 85, Low 76
Wednesday – High 84, Low 76

Grades: B-C

A sure sign of fall

The season is definitely changing. We have our first thunderstorm outlook without a chance for any thunderstorms. Not an outlook bereft of severe weather, but an outlook without ANY thunderstorms. That’s two different fonts for the word any, so I think I made my point.

Not only is the threat for thunderstorms, so low as to be nonexistent on Saturday, that carries through into Sunday. No thunderstorms are expected across the continental US (and probably Alaska and Hawaii) for the entire weekend. This means there won’t be a major system moving across the country, certainly, but it also indicates that there is an autumnal chill on the way.

Palm Bay, Florida to Trenton, New Jersey

Well, hi there. Good evening. We’re going to be taking a two day return trip up the coast, right through the most well populated segment of the United States. Expect this trip to last two days, and for the last few hours to seem like a week. We’re expecting a travel speed of 69mph, thanks in large part to the part of the drive from Florida through South Carolina. We will see a bit more of the country on Wednesday than Thursday, expected to cover 552 miles on our first day of travel.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)
Palm Bay
This entire route of our day was heavily impacted by Hurricane Matthew, though things are in significantly better shape for our route on Wednesday. The weather will be dry from Palm Bay northward, with significantly warmer than normal temperatures. The most heavily impacted town, by most accounts, was Lumberton, North Carolina. we’ll pass through that ill fated town, and end up in St. Pauls after one night. Let’s hope it’s getting better in Lumberton.

DAY 2 (Friay)
Friday’s drive will be a tightrope. Don’t be surprised if there is heavy rain and the threat for a thunderstorm just west of our route, virtually the entire day. We won’t ever get clobbered by rain or thunderstorms, but there will be an ever increasing threat for rain from Richmond to Washington, making things for this part of the drive nearly excruciating. I-95 near the Beltway is bad enough! The threat won’t end from DC to Trenton, though there might be a bit of a reprieve around Philly, but it won’t last. The only difference from moving to afternoon is that the later round will technically be “tropical”. Here we are, Trenton!


Trenton, New Jersey

Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 71, Low 60
Friday – Chances of showers, eventually clearing, High 72, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow -Cloudy, High 76, Low 58
Friday – Partly cloudy skies (rain late), High 76, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and warm with a shower in places High 74, Low 59
Friday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers, mainly later; breezy in the afternoon High 72, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, mainly between 9am and 5pm. Mostly cloudy High 73, Low, 59
Friday – Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, High 75, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. High 74, Low 60
Friday – Showers likely. High 71, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. High 73, Low 61
Friday – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. High 75, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting overnight. high 76, Low 59
Friday – Drizzle in the evening. high 77, Low 55

Well, there you go. A big ol’ forecast for New Jersey. Enjoy the video!

Lancaster, Pennsylvania to Palm Bay, Florida

Hey! Another road trip! Let’s take a two day trip down to Florida. The trip will last a little more than 1000 miles. Our drive on Wednesday will be a little bit shorter, with the first covering 556 miles with a lightning quick speed of 69.5mph. Let’s see what’s going on along the east coast.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
There is a monster area of low pressure moving through eastern Canada and dangling a cold front that will eventually clip the mid-Atlantic, but that won’t be until a full 24 hours after we leave the area. We will hit DC early in the day, which is good, becasue that will take a lot out of us, and is no place to drive when at the end of a long day. We will be in South Carolina by the time the day ends, with hardly a cloud in the sky for the entire, warm day. The day will end in the town of Sardinia, northeast of Florence and not far from the Turbeville Correctional Facility. Don’t pick up hitchhikers!

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
We’re in for mostly a dry day again on Wednesday, with temperatures in the low 80s for highs, and not much cooler early in the day. There will be a bit of northeasterly flow off the Gulf that will touch off some isolated thunderstorms in Florida, but we will reach Edgewater before I would worry about the threat for precipitation. Enjoy the beach!
Palm Bay

Palm Bay, Florida

It is a bit quieter this week than it was last week on Florida’s Space Coast. Palm Bay was spared a worst case scenario, when the eyewall of Matthew never made landfall. The storm was still significant, and there are still flood advisories in the area, as erosion and high water levels still haven’t receded. How is the weather looking in the near future?

At 853PM, ET, Palm Bay was reporting a temperature of 79 with mostly clear skies. The Florida Peninsula was presently benefiting from a tropical feature at this time, as there is a tropical disturbance east of the Bahamas acting as a focal point for showers and instability across the region.
As this area of instability continues to churn across the region, a northeasterly onshore flow will develop, blowing into the Palm Bay area and introducing the chance for some sea breeze storms. As Palm Bay, ironically, is set back from the coast, they will be more likely to see a shower, though Melbourne, the nearest reporting station, is less likely to see any thunderstorm activity.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, High 83, Low 74
Wednesday – Isolated afternoon storms, High 82, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 84, Low 73
Wednesday – Rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day. High 84, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – A brief morning shower; there will be coastal flooding in flood-prone areas around high tide High 84, Low 75
Wednesday – Partly sunny with a shower High 83, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny High 84, Low ,73
Wednesday – A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny High 83, Low, 73

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers, High 83, Low 73
Wednesday –  Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers High 82, Low 72

WN Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 84, Low 73
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 82, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the morning. High 84, Low 74
Wednesday – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 83, Low 73

Here is a look at that tropical feature east of the Bahamas. Kind of fun to look at these big guys on satellite, especially when you know they won’t do any damage.

Southeast Asia prepares to be battered


You are looking at the current satellite frame over southeast Asia. Typhoon Saraika has already killed two in the Philippines and his on her way to Hainan, and will likely continue to do serious damage there. Meanwhile, a stronger system, Haima will likely not impact the Philippines as directly, but may be significant for the northern edge of Luzon. Haima will split the Philippines and Taiwan, and will make a fairly substantial landfall on the southeast coast of China on Thursday.
Both of these systems are dangerous, and have, or will likely kill people. Fortunately, the Chinese mainland tends to absorb blows more successfully than the outlying islands of the western Pacific. Their ability to recover will be tested this month.

Killeen, Texas to Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

All right, we’re ready to go back out on the road! It’s just going to be a short, one day trek lasting only about 5 hours. The mileage between our to loci is 346 miles, which will lead to an average speed of 66.3mph. It would be faster, but I hear that DFW can be a mess, especially on a Monday.

It definitely seems like a late season pattern across the country tonight, and that will continue through tomorrow. The Gulf has pretty much shut down, thanks to strong laminar flow through the center of the country, and slow to emerge surface troughing. That said, the Red River Valley is well south of that flow, so it will be warm and dry from Killeen to OKC.
Oklahoma City

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