The…. Weeks ahead. 10/26/14-11/15/14

So, here’s what’s going to happen in the coming weeks. I’m going to be going on a hiatus, starting on Thursday of next week (the 30th) and won’t be back until the 11th of November. Anthony will be taking over full time during my two weeks off, but he will also be taking a vacation the weekend of the 8th and 9th of November, and the 10th will make up any verifications that we are missing. I’ll jump in head first on the 11th. This is a tentative schedule. Anthony is more part time than I am, and a rigorous posting schedule may not be as feasible, but he will try. No maps for today’s schedule post, just a whole lot of text.

10/27: Abilene, Texas
10/28: Logan, Utah
10/29: Fayetteville, Arkansas
10/30: Jackson, Tennessee
10/31: Los Angeles, California; Road Trip from Jackson to Los Angeles
11/2: Columbus, Ohio
11/3: Duluth, Minnesota; Road Trip from Columbus to Duluth.
11/4: Bloomington, Indiana
11/7: Atlanta, Georgia; Road Trip from Portland, Oregon to Atlanta
11/11: Elkhart, Indiana
11/12: Napa, California
11/15: Vineland, New Jersey

Naples, Florida

We’re headed down to southwest Florida, and the beautiful city of Naples, not far from my parents’ home away from home, Estero.

At 653PM, ET, Naples was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with mostly sunny skies. An area of low pressure over the northern Bahamas was inducing an easterly flow across southern Florida, which is helping to stabilize the area, leading to a beautiful evening on the Gulf Coast.
Flow will switch to come out of the west-northwest, not only at the surface but aloft as well. There may be a little bit of haze in the morning as a result, but without shear, there won’t be a threat for thunderstorms. Instead, expect a gorgeous weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 65
Sunday – Sunny skies, High 83, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 84, Low 65
Sunday – Sunny High 84, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 82, Low 66
Sunday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 83, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 81, Low 66
Sunday – Sunny High 82, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 65
Sunday – Sunny High 82, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 81, Low 66
Sunday – Mostly Sunny High 82, Low 66

That’s quite the dreamy forecast, isn’t it? Not too hot, sunny, on a beach. Here is the satellite, showing the area of low pressure shifting away from the Sunshine State
Naples

Lawton, Oklahoma to Panama City, Florida

We’re going to head to the beach today, with a nice little two day trip across the Mississippi from Oklahoma to Florida. It’s a 956 mile journey, with a little bit longer leg coming on Friday. There isn’t as much interstate on this trek as we might like, and as a result, our pace will be 62.8mph. That will allow us to cover 502 miles on Friday, the rest on Saturday. This is about the time of year to find some sand.

DAY ONE (Friday)
Lawton
High pressure is overwhelming the south central United States, pushing all of the weather towards New England and the Pacific Northwest. The temperatures aren’t as blazing as they are in the summer either, so the combination of pleasurable temperatures and clear skies could make to for an easy drive to Holly Ridge, Louisiana, which is east of Monroe.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
A cold front moving just off shore is going to keep pushing the remnants of a tropical depression southeast and away from Florida. It was never going to threaten Panama City; I mostly just didn’t want to say “high pressure” to start another day of the drive. It should be great beach weather when we reach it.
Panama City

New Jersey sees a water spout off its coast

spoutin
A trough moving through New England was really sapped of its energy by Gonzalo, and as a result, it didn’t bring much rainfall to the coast. As soon as the trough hit the open ocean, and with Gonzalo well on his way to Europe, the boundary blew up. This didn’t happen far from the coast, and the new trough really started to organize. As you can see, it was active enough to spit out a wee little water spout, as you see above. You can see a full gallery at Newsworks. Fortunately, there were no injuries or issues with seafarers.

Indian Summer in North Dakota

We don’t often think “pleasant and in the mid-60s” when we think of late October temperatures in Fargo. Lo and behold, however, temperatures were able to climb all the way up to 65 and 67 on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. The price was paid on Thursday morning, however, as the clear skies that allowed the warm afternoon highs also allowed temperatures to drop to 35. This time of year, it could definitely be worse. Weatherbug and Weathernation tied for the top prize.
Actuals: Monday – High 65, Low 35
Tuesday – High 67, Low 43

Grade: B

New SPC graphics roll out tomorrow

With the 15z update tomorrow morning, the SPC will introduce new thunderstorm outlook graphics. They will do away with “see text” phrasing to instead provide better graphical representations of their forecasts with “marginal” outlooks. Additionally, they will introduce an “enhanced” outlooks, which will fall between “slight” and “moderate” risks, to demonstrate where there is a better chance for severe weather where the phrase “slight risk” may not lead to the preferred inference. Here is an example that the Storm Prediction Center provided:
newgraphic
If you want something a little more hard and fast, here are the particular criteria that the SPC will use for their graphical depiction:
criteria
If you would like to know more about the SPC’s changes, you can read from their post on the topic from earlier this year. Of course, the way things are looking, they may not be able to use their new graphics for a few days. Thunderstorm activity looks pretty negligible for the next few days.

Clear confusion

The sun was able to peek through the clouds often in Santa Fe over the last couple of days, both at night and in the morning, which led to temperatures skying high above forecast highs and drop below forecast lows. Not everyone had rain in the forecast, but everyone expected enough clouds to prevent temperature fluctuations as wild as Santa Fe enjoyed. The thing is, though, it DID rain. Both Sunday and Monday. The rain storms were simply discrete enough to allow for temperatures to bounce around like they did. In the end, it was Accuweather claiming their third victory in a row, thanks to Victoria-Weather calling for a dry day yesterday. Otherwise, V-W had the top temperature forecast. People notice rain before they notice 2 degrees difference in temperature though, so kudos to Accuweather.
Actuals: Sunday – Rain and thunderstorms reported, not measured. High 70, Low 39
Monday – Rain reported, not measured, High 73, Low 42

Grade: C

Fargo, North Dakota to Ithaca, New York

Today we embark on a trip from the Eastern Dakotas to Southern New York. 1,308 miles separate Fargo and Ithaca, so it’ll be a 3-day trek to get there. Buckle up!

Fargo

DAY ONE

An area of low pressure is starting to develop over the Western High Plains, bringing some gusty southerly winds over the Dakotas and western Minnesota. However, with high pressure currently in place over the Upper Midwest, that should be the only negative on this pleasant weather day! Mostly sunny skies are expected for the entire day from Fargo down through Minneapolis and well into WI until we get to Madison, our stop for the night.

DAY TWO

The high pressure shifts slightly east during the day, but luckily for us, the axis will be directly along our trip for the day! Some scattered clouds are possible as we depart Madison, but the rest of the day should be just as pleasant as yesterday, and with less winds as well! The biggest thing we’ll have to contend with is traffic and road construction as we drive through Chicago, through northern Indiana, and past Toledo as we end our night in Cleveland.

DAY THREE

A pleasant day as we depart Cleveland will eventually lead into overcast skies as a low-pressure system continues to sit just off the New England coastline. Scattered showers are expected to start kicking up as we drive past Erie, PA and will become more of a steady nuisance as we pass Jamestown, NY. The winding roads and persistent showers will slow down our travels a bit, but eventually we’ll make it to Ithaca by mid-afternoon.

Ithaca

Gorgeous Gulf Weekend

With a lack of any significant surface systems affecting the Houma area, it was largely a pleasant weekend in Southeast Louisiana. Some morning fog was seen both days, but burned off by mid-morning and then scattered clouds developed by early afternoon. Accuweather took home another victory due to their slightly cooler low temperature forecasts.

Saturday: High 82, Low 58.
Sunday: High 78, Low 60.
Forecast Grade: B

Fargo, North Dakota

Today we venture to the Northern Plains, to the bustling North Dakota metropolis of Fargo. Will the start of the workweek continue the pleasant weather they’ve had over the weekend? Let’s find out!

At 5:53pm CDT, the temperature in Fargo, ND was 65 degrees under fair skies. An area of low pressure shifting out of Ontario into the Great Lakes is pretty much the only system of significance anywhere close to Fargo and it will continue pushing off to the east over the next 24hrs. A broad area of high pressure will shift through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest over the next couple of days. Late Tuesday will see a few increasing clouds, along with gustier southerly winds, as an area of low pressure begins to develop over eastern Montana. Dry weather in store for the next couple of days!

Monday: Sunny. High 63, Low 41.
Tuesday: Continued sunny, some late clouds. High 66, Low 41.

TWC: Monday: Sunny. High 62, Low 41.
Tuesday: Sunny, windy. High 65, Low 40.

AW: Monday: Pleasant with plenty of sun. High 63, Low 40.
Tuesday: Sunny, windy and mild. High 66, Low 40.

NWS: Monday: Sunny. High 63, Low 39.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 66, Low 39.

WB: Monday: Sunny. High 65, Low 37.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 65, Low 37.

WN: Monday: Mostly sunny. High 64, Low 39.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 66, Low 39.

Here we see just some high-based cirrus clouds off over eastern Montana, otherwise all is quiet over the Dakotas.
FARsat

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