Disaster averted

On the first night of a two day severe weather outbreak, things got squally across Texas. One of the more significant lines moved right through the Dallas Metroplex and east along I-20. Just off to the north of the interstate was a bowing segment of the line that brought the most significant wind and subsequent damage. Longview, just along the highway, was spared the brutality of the bow echo, but still saw a lot of rain and winds that gusted to 41mph. The rain at the back end of the system continued into Saturday morning, which was the variable that changed everything. Victoria-Weather had the best temperature forecat but lost points when we failed to account for the continued shower activity. This vaulted Forecast.io into the title spot.
Froday – .81 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 77, Low 63
Saturday – Rain recorded but not measured, High 87, Low 63

Grade: B-D

Outbreak entering its second day

There was a threat for strong thunderstorms yesterday, and the initial anticipation was for some supercells over Kansas and Texas, with some large hail and tornadoes. Instead, the thunderstorms metastasized into long track bow echoing squall lines through Dallas and on through Tyler and Longview. This morning, thunderstorms that crossed into south Texas late last night did the same thing through Houston. There were a few tornadoes in Kansas, though they managed to avoid doing any significant damage. The real story last night and through this morning were the squall lines and the havoc they brought. You can establish their tracks through the storm reports. The Dallas squall actually continued all the way through Mississippi last night.
squalltracjj
The line of reports over southwest Louisiana was associated with a rogue supercell earlier in the day, with large hail as well as the gusty winds.
Today, though, we should remain vigilant for the threat of large hail and tornadoes, not in the south, but actually around the Ohio Valley. Take a look at the forecast for severe hail, and the hatched area for significant severe weather.
severe hail
The hail threat can be used as a proxy for supercell development. The area of low pressure will swing from Texas northeast towards the Ohio Valley, introducing the helicity and shear necessary for the super cells. There will continue to be the threat for more squalls through the southeast as impulses move along a deeply occluded cold front, but the real threat will be for tornadoes (and a little bit of enormous hail) from St. Louis to Bowling Green, Kentucky. There is already a tornado watch for this region, as well as a non-severe thunderstorm south of St. Louis. This stands to be a very long afternoon, particularly in southern Illinois.

The Week Ahead 4/26/15-5/2/15

No forecasts next week! That’s really strange. There will be a couple of road trips, one entirely in Louisiana, and one just starting there.
map

Monday – Road Trip from Shreveport Louisiana to Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Thursday – Road Trip from Lake Charles, Louisiana to Bridgeport, Connecticut

Pensacola, Florida

After much delay, here we are, back in forecasting action. Sorry about that.

At 853 PM, ET, Pensacola was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with clear skies. A large area of low pressure in the Plains was inducing an aggressive southerly flow that was laden with perterbations. A remnant supercell was found southeast of New Orleans and may bring some high clouds overnight, which should keep things fairly warm.
The low will move into the Ohio Valley this evening, with it’s associated cold front mostly disappearing overnight. A general southerly flow through the Florida Panhandle into the low will create a very humid regime around Pensacola. As the system passes to the north, there may be a thunderstorm tomorrow through the afternoon associated with the inflow, with the lingering legacy of the system in Pensacola will be a sea breeze based boundary just inland of Pensacola created by the moisture rich southerly flow and the failure of any clearing boundary to move through the Gulf Coast. This lingering moisture gradient will produce isolated storms on Sunday and keep the city itself, south of the gradient, mostly cloudy and humid.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, clearing in the late evening, High 84, Low 72
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, with an isolated thunderstorm, High 87, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Thunderstorms, High 82, Low 71
Sunday – Isolated thunderstorms, High 87, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, strong late; considerable cloudiness and breezy High 83, Low 71
Sunday – Mostly cloudy (early storms) High 85, low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy,High 81, Low 72
Sunday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms High 83, Low 72
Sunday – Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 86, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow -Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 81, Low 72
Sunday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 84, Low 73

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain until afternoon. High 79, low 72
Sunday – Foggy in the morning. High 79, Low 71

Not often there is this much disagreement on a Florida forecast in late April, but this is what happenes when you have a massive system moving through the region.
Pensacola

Santa Fe, New Mexico to Longview, Texas

Texas is a monstrous state. That’s why a trip just from the next state over will take us a day and a half to complete. It’s a 767 mile journey from Santa Fe to Longview, and we will cover it at a pace of 63.9mph, which means the first day of travel will net us 511 miles of the travel. There will be storms in the southern Plains tomorrow, will we run into any on our drive?

DAY ONE (Saturday)
Santa Fe
Low pressure initially generated by the lee of the Rockies, and then enhanced by the upper level wave emerging into the Plains will cycle moisture back into the Rockes, where it will fall as rain, primarily in the higher terrain. There may be a splash of rain as we depart Santa Fe and head south towards I-40, but when we turn east, we will be in the clear for a while. We’ll catch up with the back end of the system very near to the end of the day, but post frontally, we’ll only see some rain, rather than the nasty severe storms they will be seeing around our destination. The day will conclude in Henrietta, Texas, and we’ll only be in the rain between about Electra and Henrietta.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
Hey, Sunday will be pretty nice! We’re going to drive through the Metroplex and continue on to Longview in a post-frontal environment, with sunny skies and incresingly hot conditions. I hope your AC is working, or that you enjoy driving with the windows down. MAybe there is a pool in Longview, because it will be in the upper 80s when we check in.
Longview TX

Longview, Texas

Busy day, sorry for the late post. That doesn’t make the forecast any less valid, however.

At 1053PM, CT, Longview was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with overcast skies. There has been a broad area of low pressure over the central Rockies that has been importing moisture through Texas, and a lingering area of surface high pressure over the eastern Seaboard has allowed a broad swath of instability and triggering waves moving through Texas that have had a prolific history of producing severe thunderstorms.
Tomorrow, the low will emerge into the High Plains, and wit will really begin to cause problems, particularly from eastern Kansas to eastern Texas. Storms will blossom through the afternoon, and in northeastern Texas, there is a chance that the entire afternoon will be threatened by the chance for severe storms. There will be quite a bit of convective blowoff that will pollute the atmosphere into the early afternoon, which may inhibit severe storms in the afternoon, but as the cold front arrives closer to the early evening, a little bit of helicity and turning will be introduced, and severe storms and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible. in the afternoon. Fortunately, the front will pass through shortly after midnight, and Saturday will spell a break in the stormy pattern Texas has endured.
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, some severe, High 79, Low 63
Saturday – Hot but sunny and clear, High 89, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, High 84, Low 64
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy; a few p.m. t-storms, some severe; storms can bring downpours, large hail and damaging winds High 80, Low 67
Saturday – Mostly sunny, warmer and less humid High 91, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, High 82, Low 63
Saturday – Mostly sunny (early storms) High 89, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms may be severe in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Cloudy. High 82, Low 63
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Windy. (early storms) High 90, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Thunderstorms Likely High 82, Low 64
Saturday – Mostly Sunny (early storms) High 90, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day. High 75, Low 64
Saturday – Mostly cloudy in the morning.Early rain, High 86, Low 69

Be wary in northeastern Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening. The satellite imagery right now is very cloudy, with a few blobs of leftover clouds from today’s convection.
Longview

Severe threat shifting north?

Yesterday, we discussed the threat for severe storms today along the Red River Valley, and that still looks to be a prime spot for storms, though the SPC has focused more specifically on the Valley area, as opposed to all of northeast Texas. Shorter range models are particularly concerned about the area around Childress this evening, though strong storms are possible in the same area that they were possible yesterday. The tornado threat is less to the east, however.
As the trough in the east starts to shift to the east, however, an upper level wave will slide into the Plains, able to operate in the absence of surface high pressure. This will draw necessary warm, moist air further north, and by as soon as Friday, there is an enhanced risk for severe storms in eastern Kansas.
severepkains
That’s about as far north as it will get through the rest of the month. There will likely be another round of severe weather in the southern Plains, shifting to the southeast Monday and into Tuesday.
More accurately rephrased, the area where severe storms are possible is expanding, to the north this week, and to the east next week.

Prime time for severe weather

Anthony discussed the cold air that has filtered into the northeastern US, essentially ruining the rest of April, especially for those that are hoping for a quick arrival of summer after a tortuous winter. With a higher sun angle, the warmth this cold air is fighting against is much more formidable. The clash in air masses is more dichotomous and any wave moving along the boundary has the chance to flare up into something significant. That’s what it looks like will happen on Wednesday.
severepkains
A weak wave will spin through the southern Plains towards northern Louisiana, dragging moisture north, and spinning just enough within a warmer environment to the southwest to churn up significant thunderstorms across the region.
This is why there is usually a thunderstorm threat this time of year in the south, though the [attern is usually more transitive. With a trough in the northern Plains, which happens more regularly, you also open up the southeastern US and eastern Seaboard up to a greater threat for more thunderstorms. If there is one benefit to the constant, unmoving trough out east, it’s that it has significantly reduced the threat for severe storms through the southeast so far this spring.
For tomorrow, though, parts of northeast Texas will hear the familiar wail of severe weather sirens.At least it will only cover a small part of the country.

Bad video, good forecast

It turns out, I posted the unedited version of the St. George forecast video. I hope you enjoyed the blooper fest. Don’t let the video issue distract from what turnned out to be a pretty good forecast, though. Accuweather was the best, hitting the high temperature perfectly on both days, and only erring by a degree for the low temperatures. Victoria-Weather’s numbers were second best, even if the video production wwas way at the bottom.
Actuals: Sunday – High 82, Low 51
Monday – High 84, Low 51

Grade:A-C

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