New York, New York

Off to the City that Never Sleeps. I should hope they aren’t sleeping right now, particularly at 11 in the morning. For those that don’t remember, verifications for New York are for Central Park.

At 1051AM, ET, New York City was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with clear skies. An upper level trough moving through eastern Canada dangled a boundary through interior New England. The upper level trough is spiraling northward, and the boundary isn’t expected to be able to advance much farther eastward.
The weak boundary is working its way through a broader surface ridge, which will dominate the weather in the city over the next few days. The boundary will have entirely dissipated by the end of the day tomorrow. Despite a mostly inactive boundary, temperatures will cool significantly on Friday. As the ridge presses off shore, it’s expected to cycle some moisture northward on the back end of the ridge, leading to some overcast skies late on Friday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 60
Friday – Clouds increase late, High 69 Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 76, Low 59
Friday – Mostly Sunny High 66, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 76, Low 58
Friday – Sunny to partly cloudy High 78, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 76, Low 59
Friday – Mostly sunny High 68, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 58
Friday – Mostly sunny High 68, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 57
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 68, Low 57

So then everyone agrees… mostly sunny for tomorrow in the Big Apple. Here is the satellite, showing scattered topographic clouds in the Catskills and stratus over Canada where the trough lies.
New York

Everyone’s a loser!

I couldn’t figure out some forecasts when we posted the outlook for Little Rock. There was rain in some forecasts and not in others, and the day that the rain was to fall was different for everyone. It turns out that the correct forecast was to include rain both Monday and Tuesday. Nobody had that in their forecast. It came down to who had the best temperature forecast, since the precipitation forecast was such a bust. In that regard, the forecast wasn’t half bad, particularly for WeatherNation, the winners in Little Rock.
Actuals: Monday – trace of rain, High 78, Low 64
Tuesday – Trace of rain, High 82, Low 66

Grade: B

Kalmaegi moves on

Typhoon Kalmaegi has strafed the Philippines, killing 10 people but fortunately, it avoided the largest population centers in a part of the world with nothing but large population centers. Kalmaegi caused problems in Manila and Hong Kong, but certainly not as bad as they could have been. Kalmaegi was never a super typhoon or anything like that, but it is important to recognized how active the western Pacific can get. If you would like to see some of the damage Kalmaegi did, the BBC has a comprehensive compilation.
The thing about tropical storms is that they tend to be laden with a lot of excess rainfall, regardless of whether or not they have strong winds or deep low pressure. Flooding is always the primary concern, particularly in impoverished regions such as these, where evacuations and preparation aren’t as good as they can be. Here is a look at the forecast track for Kalmaegi. Even without winds like those seen with Odile in Cabo San Lucas, this will be a very dangerous storm as it comes ashore into Vietnam and south China.
Kalmaegi

Fortunately the area this system will make landfall is relatively sparsely populated, but has some undulating terrain, which may lead to additional flash flooding. Hopefully, the relatively low casualty total can remain.

Slow recovery

Showers were widespread in the mid-Atlantic late last week, but it cleared out for the end of the weekend. Despite clear skies in Hagerstown, however, temperatures didn’t bounce back nearly as quickly as anyone expected. The high on Monday only reached 70 degrees, which was still 5 degrees off the coolest forecast high. Even on Sunday, when everyone was a bit closer, the high was 67 and nobody had a high in the forecast lower than 69. This was a failure in the models. There were no clouds or other mitigating factors in suppressing the return of warmer air. Guidance just didn’t anticipate the coolness of the post frontal air mass. Weatherbug ran coolest with their forecast and won the day.
Actuals: Sunday – High 67, Lwo 46
Monday – High 70, Low 48

Grade: C

Odile tears through Cabo San Lucas

Odile

The Pacific hurricane season remains active, from Iselle in Hawaii to Norbert in the desert southwest, and now Odile rumbling through the Baja Peninsula. At this time, the storm lies over the Peninsula itself as a Category 2 hurricane. Odile is forecast to continue north-northeast into the Gulf of California and bring some rain to southern Arizona eventually. This is a tough route for Odile to be able to sustain itself, so the heavy rain that flooded Phoenix with Norbert probably isn’t likely.
Back to Cabo. There are some reports of 11 inches of rain falling from Odile in Cabo San Lcas, but the real story was the wind. Odile made landfall at the resort destination as a category 3 storm, the strongest to ever make landfall on the Baja Peninsula, and it was nearly directly over the resort destination. The damage wrought by 125mph winds and flooding rains has lead to widespread damage across the resorts that dot the towns, as well as evacuations and full storm shelters throughout the Peninsula. Take a look at some images below.

More images of the damage can be found at EverythingWX.

Little Rock, Arkansas

Off to the center of Arkansas today. How will the beginning of the week play out in Little Rock?

At 1253PM, CT, Little Rock was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The clouds across Little Rock were a part of a narrow band through the center of the state, and the rest of Arkansas was generally clear. Synoptically, the region was seeing a weak pressure gradient, but wasn’t really under high pressure. An upper level trough was swinging through the Upper Midwest, and a tropical wave over the western Gulf of Mexico was disorganized enough to help produce widespread showers across the Gulf.
Some of that moisture is expected to be drawn north by the upper level trough, but the cold air within the trough won’t sink far enough south to really trigger any significant precipitation. Still, as the boundary at the leading edge of the trough moves into Arkansas on Tuesday, it will dredge up a few clouds and the chance for some light showers, making for a bit of a bleak day.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 60
Tuesday – Overcast with a chance for drizzle, High 84, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy High 83, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny High 84, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 81, Low 61
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 84, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 82, Low 63
Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 82, low 62
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy High 82, Low 63
Tuesday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 82, Low 66

I’m confused by a couple of forecasts. It really doesn’t look like moisture will really begin to be excised from atmosphere until Tuesday morning, so I don’t know why Accuweather has the rainy day forecasts backwards. Here is the satellite at present, showing no signs of imprending drear.
Little Rock

Drizzle Disaster

In the wake of a cold front, an upper level trough brought a swath of showers through the Great Lake. At the surface, it looked like there would be persistent high pressure, which perhaps scared so many forecasters off of putting rain in the forecast for South Bend. Unfortunately for so many forecasters, the drizzle hung on as moisture moved through surface high pressure and brought nearly a tenth of an inch of precipitation between Friday and Saturday. Victoria-Weather was the only outlet to have rain in the forecast both Friday and Saturday, while some didn’t have any at all. Even if we hadn’t had the top precipitation forecast, we would have done pretty well with our temperature forecasts — at least compared to other outlets. The real problem this time out were the overnight lows, which, despite the drizzly overcast, bottomed out in the low 40s, which was significantly lower than anyone expected. Like I said, though, Victoria Weather was top on precipitation and near the top for temperatures, ultimately grabbing the top overall spot as well.
Actuals: Friday – .03 inches of rain, High 59, Low 43
Saturday – .04 inches of rain, High 61, Low 43

Grade: C

Sheboygan, Wisconsin to Hagerstown, Maryland

Let’s finish the weekend and begin the week with a short little trip covering 775.8 miles and lasting for a day and a half. Our pace will be 62.4mph, and that first day, Sunday, when traffic is a little better, we will be through after 499 miles of driving. 500 would be too much.

DAY ONE (Sunday)
sheboygan
After a long series of days with cloudy skies and cool temperatures across the Great Lakes, we can get rid of one of those two things to begin our drive. It will still be a bit cool as we head from Wisconsin through Illinois, Indiana and most of Ohio, but the sun will be out! There really should be no weather problems for the day. Even the sun won’t be in our eyes, as we will be driving east. The day will end in Streetsboro, Ohio, northeast of Akron.

DAY TWO
It’s going to be even more tranquil as we head through western Pennsylvania,a sliver of West Virginia and ultimately, arrive in Hagerstown. Temepratures will even be a few degrees warmer, and the drive through Appalachia will be very scenic.
Hagerstown

Hagerstown, Maryland

We’re on our way again to another forecast destination. This time, we are hitting western Maryland and the city of Hagerstown.

At 1214PM, ET, Hagerstown was reporting low clouds, drizzle and a temperature of 57. The low clouds were helping produce light rain across a good deal of eastern Maryland, with the back edge between Hagerstown and Cumberland.An upper level trough moving through Canada has been generating scattered showers across the Great Lakes, but as it emerges into the eastern Great Lakes, it has organized into an area of surface low pressure, dangling a boundary producing the showers through the Mid-Atlantic.
As the surface feature moves up the St Lawrence Seaway, the weak axis of showers will shift off the coast and the miserable conditions over central and western Maryland will alleviate late this afternoon.. Dry air and laminar flow aloft will lead to surface ridging over the mid-Atlantic for the next 48 hours or so, and Hagerstown will get a chance to air out a bit.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 47
Monday – Sunny, High 75, Low 51

TWC Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 70, Low 46
Monday – Sunny High 76, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasant High 70, Low 48
Monday – Mostly sunny and nice High 84, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 47
Monday – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 58
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 75, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 70, Low 46
Monday – Partly Cloudy High 75, Low 52

A look at the radar shows most of the rain is east of Hagerstown at this point, with some wonderful weather ahead.
Hagerstown

The Week Ahead: 9/14/14-9/20/14

Just a word to the wise, I’m out of town from Thursday to Sunday next week, so I’m not sure that the posting schedule will be entirely followed. I’m hoping so, but I can’t give you any promises.

map

Sunday – Little Rock, Arkansas
Wednesday – New York, New York
Thursday – Richmond, Virginia
Friday – Bloomington, Illinois; Road Trip from Richmond to Bloomington
Saturday – Road Trip from Bloomington to Rapid City, South Dakota.

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