There is a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms today from the Dakotas to northern Minnesota. How we got to this point is rather circuitous. Let’s take a look at the past 24 hours of SPC outlooks. I don’t think I’ve seen one of these things change so much pre-storm in a very long time. Here is what we started with yesterday morning:

A slight risk, covering most of Minnesota and a lot of the central Dakotas. Furthermore, they had the best threat for severe storms around the North Dakota/South Dakota and Minnesota tri-state.

After a shift change and perhaps the usage of a hallucinogen, Sunday afternoon’s update gave us this moderate risk, with a center about 150 miles to the east-southeast.

And now, thunderstorms were going to be significantly stronger.

Whoa! 45% and hatched, when we only had 30% earlier. And there isn’t much of an overlap, either.

So obviously, something changed, the onus was now on the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Rochester to be prepared for — Oh, wait. This was the outlook from the overnight.

So we’re back into North Dakota and northern Minnesota, which, initially, wasn’t even in a slight risk for yesterday’s updates. This time, the center shifted about 175 miles to the northwest. Was the threat for significant weather still high? Why yes, yes it was.

Where are we at now with the morning update, you may ask. Pretty similar to the overnight outlook, actually, but greatly elongated.

The only thing is that the threat for strong winds seems to be sneaking back deeper into Minnesota, practically to Wisconsin.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif?1405956293553

Actually, that’s a pretty significant change, increasing the coverage of significant severe weather like that. There is also a 5% tornado threat now in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. that really grew over the course of the past two updates.

Expect the afternoon update to push the focus into Iowa.

This is the current hazard map for the Twin Cities NWS office.

Temperatures are going to warm up for the beginning of next week, and dew points will climb into the 60s, leading to heat indices around 100, leading to an excessive heat watch. Certainly, excessive heat is in the eye of the beholder, much like freeze watches or wind chill advisories. They aren’t going to be issuing these advisories or watches in St. Louis or Dallas, and they don’t continue to issue them if the warning area should have acclimated to a particular temperature by that point in the season. Like, the 3rd day below freezing in a row, the 3rd stretch of 90s in a season, whatever.

So anyways, what I’m trying to say is that these heat indices reflect the fact that Minneapolis is just not used to the 90s, and these warm temperatures this week will be a bizarre aberration –

Whoa, wait. Nope! Temperatures in the Upper Midwest will be very close to normal for this time of year. It will even be a bit cooler than normal just east of town. Admittedly, this is the 6-10 day graphic, and will be valid after the temperatures spike on Monday, but if temperatures cool off this dramatically, and we are getting our first advisory in late July, well, it’s been a cool summer in Minneapolis.