St. Joseph, Missouri

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St. Joseph is up river along the Missouri from Kansas City, and are eying some potentially significant weather as the weekend approached. Lets join them in eying the weather.

At 1053PM, CT, St. Joseph was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 60 degrees. The unusual warmth was a precursor to a strong area of low pressure developing in the High Plains, and threatening a busy end to the week. The strong surface feature will occlude fairly quickly. Expect it to be warm in St. Joseph tomorrow, however the leading edge of thunderstorms will develop along I-35 – east of St. Joseph – around mid afternoon tomorrow, but the colder air is expected to lag behind.
While strong thunderstorms are a possibility through much of Missouri, it is looking at this time that they will not bother St. Joseph. There is still a slight risk for severe storms, but most of the wet weather will be in the form of scattered showers in the evening. The leading edge of cold air will arrive in St. Joseph overnight, with a clearer and significantly cooler day on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms late, windy and starting to cool off in the evening, High 73, Low 57
Saturday – Clearing and colder, High 57, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with periods of thunderstorms later in the day. A few storms may be severe. High 78, Low 54
Saturday – Considerable cloudiness. high 54, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Winds becoming strong; very warm with times of clouds and sun, a strong afternoon thunderstorm; storms can bring damaging winds, large hail and even a tornado High 76, Low 55
Saturday – Windy and cooler with times of clouds and sun; strong winds can cause localized power outages; secure loose objects High 55, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly sunny,  High 78, Low 58
Saturday – Partly sunny, (Showers before 1) High 58, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon. High 78, Low 57
Saturday – Partly sunny and breezy. High 57, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 78, Low 58
Saturday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 58, Low 41

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm High 78, Low 55
Saturday – Overcast High 55, Low 38

St. Joseph will get none of the noise from tomorrow’s storms, but will get the cold air behind it. The calm before storm, literally, is pretty calm.

Hinesville, Georgia to Poughkeepsie, New York

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Off to the races we go, with a very I-95 dependent journey north along the east coast. It will take two days, the first longer than the second, to cover the 909 miles between our two cities. That will equate to a pace of 64mph, which is probably going to be slowed by traffic. Our goal for night one is 514 miles, which is more than halfway there. Wait…. Does this route go through New Jersey?

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Hinesville, Georgia

A rainy area of low pressure that’s been bothering the southeast is finally off shore, and anyone driving the region tomorrow will enjoy pleasant conditions across the coastal Carolinas. We will pass into Virginia, and end the day on the north side of Richmond, in Ashland.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
A weak wave is going to spin out of eastern Canada, into New England. There shouldn’t be enough moisture at the surface to impact the roads, but from about Baltimore onwards, expect an uptick in wind and a bit more overcast. It will be at the gloomiest as we reach Poughkeepsie.

Poughkeepsie, New York

Updates 3/11

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1051AM We had a long lead to some severe weather last week, and we are in a similar scenario this week, but unlike last week, the threat is growing ominous the closer we get to the event. Friday and Saturday will offer some strong thunderstorms, starting in the Mississippi Valley on Friday, where there is already a 30% chance of severe weather, which suggests an enhanced or moderate risk is coming in future updates. Pay attention to this one.

130PM I should have noted in the earlier update that the outbreak looks to be multiple days. Saturday has a 30% bullseye over Alabama

Poughkeepsie, New York

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Poughkeepsie is definitely a candidate for the Geography Spelling Bee competition that I am starting. I am guessing that this forecast will come easier than the correct spelling and pronunciation of the town.

At 1053AM, ET, Poughkeepsie was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with clear skies. It was warm across downstate New York and the surrounding areas, despite a northwest breeze, thanks to the sun this morning, and a split jet which is producing inclement weather to the south, but barricading cold air to the north.
The wave to the north is bearing a weak area of low pressure through eastern Canada. the associated cool front will sweep through New England noiselessly tomorrow in the early afternoon, after which an area of high pressure will slide into the mid-Atlantic. as a result, expect a tame, pleasant albeit cooler middle of the week in Poughkeepsie.
Tomorrow – Scattered clouds midday, High 65, low 37
Wednesday – Sunny and cooler, High 48, Low 35

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 33
Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine (Late rain).  High 51, low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and warm; elevated fire risk due to gusty winds and low humidity High 65, Low 31
Wednesday – Cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 50, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 39
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 63, low 38
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Much cooler High 46, Low 38

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 40
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 48, Low 34

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 35
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 55, Low 31

The GFS is keeping a laggard band of precipitation behind the front that the main models have in place. The NAM doesn’t have much of anything, and given the system to the south, that seems more accurate. Sorry, Weather Channel. I don’t like your chances. I do like Weatherbug’s new user interface though! Very nice.
Satellite shows a channel of sunny skies, right over Poughkeepsie,

Blessedly calm

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The weather in California is pretty reliable. It’s often warm, sometimes hot, with a lot of sun, and some splashes of rain. When winter rolls around, interior California gets huge amounts of snow, which later water the Central Valley with the melt in the summer. But then, when things go off kilter, you get killer heat waves and fires, or rain that falls nearer the coast and causes flash flooding and land slides. We had a forecast for San Luis Obispo last month and I’m happy to say that the nastiest it got was some morning fog, which was quickly scoured out with a steady morning breeze. Accuweather had the top forecast, which had some temperature error thanks to a chilly morning low, but ultimately everyone is glad for a couple of nice days where the only complaint might be a few minutes of fog.
Actuals: February 24th, High 73, Low 45
February 25th, High 77, Low 54

Grade: B-D

Updates 3/9

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2:37PM Only one severe storm ongoing right now, headed for Freeport, Florida. You’ll see it coming…. There is a LOT of lightning

827PM Storms are ongoing in the southeastern United States, but nothing is severe right now. There might not be anything severe until late this week, when storms in the Mississippi Valley could be widespread.

1055PM To tell you how far from significant weather we are tonight, I’ve encountered quite a bit of conversation on the storm at the end of the week. The storms in the Mississippi Valley, yes, but a wintry mix in the northern Plains will be difficult Friday to Saturday. But we’ve got time.

Updates 3/8

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1027AM The shower activity that cropped up last night is now north of Dallas, in the Red River Valley. There is a little bit of thunder with it, but mostly, it is just here to nourish the crops. Overnight, some of those storms produced strong winds which unfortunately proved lethal and caused damage

Radar loop for the Red River Valley on 3/8

Updates 3/7

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1125pm – The threat for stronger storms has again increased late in the day. A marginal risk was plopped in Texas as a narrow band of thunder cropped up in the middle of the state, drifting north.

There are snow showers and winter weather alerts from Oklahoma to New Mexico, stemming from this very system.

Severe weather immenent

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Rare is the occasion that it is after 8pm, CT, there is an enhanced risk for severe weather and it hasn’t popped yet. There is a mesoscale discussion in anticipation of a looming watch in central Oklahoma and North Central Texas, and the HRRR still has storms popping around Weatherford…. soon.

This is the opening salvo of a multi day outbreak, which is also the first significant storm of meteorological spring. It’s not a surprise. Tomorrow has been flagged as a potential severe weather day since last week. If there is a surprise, it is that the SPC hasn’t upped the outlook to moderate yet. The storm still looks strong, but not any stronger than it looked days ago.

Storms tonight will feature strong winds and a threat for tornados (hence the pending tornado watch), all a part of a broken line of storms, with a stronger threat for larger tornadoes in the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, including isolated supercells. This will be the most significant of the severe weather in terms of intensity and geographic coverage, but more rough weather is likely in the Coastal Plains from the Mid Atlantic to Georgia on Wednesday.

Tonight, Oklahoma City and Dallas may be early morning recipients of the strong weather, while tomorrow, we will look at Shreveport, Jackson and Mobile and surrounding locales. Again, the headliner is tornadoes, but straight line squalls will be a factor as well.

This is all brought on by a deep, well defined and fast moving trough, a hallmark of Spring. Another hallmark of these big spring storms is that there will be snow on the back end of the feature. Ample moisture and energy will lead 4-8″ in many locations from Iowa to Michigan, including a dumping on the Upper Peninsula.

This will be a dangerous weather pattern for the middle of the country, with the first severe outbreak testing readiness, as well as probably bringing out storm chasers, making things a bit dicey on the roads. This will be the first rodeo with the slimmed down Weather Service as well, which makes weather minds tense more than normal. As I noted, this storm has been anticipated for days. The first forecasts for it may have come from meteorologists no longer employed. We won’t get this kind of preparation time often.

Oh, I’ve been working on this post long enough, look what happened:

Stay safe this week