A late fall temperature surge

The thing about advancing cold fronts is that sometimes, they don’t end  long spells of hot weather.  Sometimes, warm air is pulled further north due to the same circulation that is producing the cold front, which means, essentially, you couldn’t have the warm air without the cold front. Whoa. So that’s what happened in Providence this week, and was extremely efficient. After our forecast valid period, a little wave was moving through Canada, cut off from any moisture, still efficiently tugged a great deal of warmth north. It was almost 60 degrees on Tuesday, a spike in temperature over the 43 degrees on Monday. Accuweather and Forecast.io were the unlikely duo who had the best forecast on this day.
Actuals: Monday – High 43, Low 35
Tuesday – High 59, Low 36

Grade: A-C

Coming Soon…

I hope you all are getting ready to enjoy Thanksgiving tomorrow among all your loved ones. We will return after the holiday with a pretty good week of weather wisdom.

Salisbury, Maryland
Road Trip from Bismarck, North Dakota to Salisbury

Bend, Oregon 

Dothan, Alabama

Baltimore, Maryland
Road Trip from Dothan to Baltimore

Terre Haute, Indiana
Road Trip from Baltimore to Terre Haute

Madison, Wisconsin

Madison is as close as we’ve come to Victoria-Weather headquarters in a while, and we’re here just in time for one of the biggest travel times of the year.

At 653PM, CT, Madison was reporting a temperature of 31 degrees with overcast skies. A steady south wind was bringing slightly warmer air to the north, and a thick layer of clouds suggests that the temperatures won’t be dropping much, if at all, overnight. There is a little bit of precipitation being detected on radar, mostly north of Madison, which is likely falling as a snow/sleet mix. Expect that sloppiness to continue for a short while tonight, clearing before travelers really get underway tomorrow morning.
A trough moving through the Canadian Prairies is going be forced away from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day tomorrow by a very strong upper level ridge. The ridge will flatten through Friday with a fairly strong ripple moving across the northern flank, with an associated cold front sinking towards Madison by Friday evening. Similar tonight, there will be spots of  precipitation, but in Madison, any wet weather will likely be a spit of light rain.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, especially in the afternoon, High 42, Low 30
Friday – increasing clouds, but near record warmth and with a touch of drizzle late, High 52, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 44, Low 29
Friday – Sunshine and clouds mixed.High 56, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and not as cold High 44, low 27
Friday – Some sun, then turning cloudy, windy and mild High 56, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, High 44, Low 29
Friday – Mostly sunny,High 59, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 42, Low 30
Friday – Partly sunny, High 53, Low 32

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 44, Low 29
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 33

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until morning.High 44, Low 30
Friday – Breezy starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon, and partly cloudy starting in the morning. High 58, Low 35

I’m the only one worried about the boundary bringing any precipitation. What can I say, I’m a nervous nelly. Here is the radar, showing some spots of precipitation around Wisconsin.

Cold Turkey

A cold front moving through the country towed a big swath of cold temperatures through the Plains, and that chilly air was able to sink as far south as Wichita Falls. The most apparent time of day for those chilly temperatures was overnight, when low temperatures plummeted into the low to mid 30s. Brr! The clear skies allowed for those chilly temperatures overnight, but let temperatures climb back into the 60s as well. Victoria-Weather and surprising WeatherNation came together to get the tie.
Actuals: Sunday – High 61, Low 35
Monday – High 66, Low 33

Grade: B-C

Temperatures that don’t belong in Arizona

Flagstaff isn’t the type of town that you think of when you think of Arizona. The winter is often chilly and snowy, while in the summer, it never gets quite as warm as the more famous environs of the state. Flagstaff was expected to be fairly cool over the weekend, but by golly, those overnight lows were unreasonable. It was as cold as 10 degrees on Sunday morning. 10! This was much colder than expected, and across the board, forecasts went bust. The top spots went to Accuweather and Forecast.io, but they weren’t terribly good either.
Actuals: Saturday – High 46, Low 15
Sunday – High 55, Low 10

Grade: D-F

Memphis, Tennessee to Lake Havasu City, Arizona

Today we embark on a 1,534-mile road trip from Memphis, TN to Lake Havasu City, AZ. From the shores of the Mississippi River to the Colorado River, it’ll take 3 days to cover the distance. We’ll get there just in time for Thanksgiving!

DAY ONE

Massive high pressure is sitting over the Eastern US, so dry and fairly pleasant conditions are expected throughout the entire day as we head westward through Little Rock and Ft Smith, AR and finish the day in Oklahoma City.

DAY TWO

Today will be more of the same as we spend the entire day on I-40 westward. A bit of a trough will sag over the Plains as we head out of Oklahoma City towards Amarillo. A few more clouds might be expected for the morning, but should mostly clear out as we head into New Mexico. We finish the day in Albuquerque.

DAY THREE

More high pressure! The Desert Southwest will be firmly underneath it so just some high clouds are anticipated as we cruise by Gallup and Flagstaff before finally turning south at Kingman and eventually into Lake Havasu City in the late evening. A easy weather trip!

Lake Havasu City, Arizona

Today we take a trip to a Spring Break hotspot, though there won’t be a bevy of coed’s there currently. With Thanksgiving just a few days away, I imagine most college students are heading home for the long holiday weekend.

At 955pm MST, the temperature at Lake Havasu City, AZ was 63 degrees under fair skies. As a system dumps plenty of precip over the Pacific Northwest, high pressure is sitting firmly over the Desert Southwest. Fairly quiet conditions are expected to start the short workweek off and continue into Tuesday. Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer with a few clouds. So all in all, a fairly nice forecast! Get those Christmas shopping lists ready, Black Friday is imminent!

Monday: Partly cloudy. High 74, Low 45.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. High 80, Low 52.

TWC: Monday: Partly cloudy. High 75, Low 47.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 82, Low 53.

AW: Monday: Partly sunny and pleasant. High 75, Low 43.
Tuesday: Periods of clouds and sun. High 82, Low 48.

NWS: Monday: Mostly sunny. High 75, Low 46.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 79, Low 51.

WB: Monday: Mostly sunny. High 73, Low 48.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 78, Low 54.

WN: Monday: Mostly sunny. High 73, Low 43.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 78, Low 48.

FIO: Monday: Partly cloudy starting overnight. High 77, Low 46.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 82, Low 52.

Only cirrus clouds are traversing the area, indicative of how quiet the next couple of days are going to be for the area.

Lincoln, Nebraska to Providence, Rhode Island

All right, let’s take a road trip, shall we? We’re headed towards New England, on a 3 day road trip, though that third day will be a bit shorter than the first two days. It’s a 1,480 mile trip, which we will lope across at a pace of 67.4mph, which will set a goal of 539 miles per day.  This route takes us right over the (Mississippi) River and through some woods, so to Grandmother’s House (In Providence) we go!


DAY ONE (Monday)
This should be one of the more active times of year, but as we get going Monday morning, there is a very summer like pattern setting up. Oh, it’s definitely late autumn, the thermometer doesn’t lie. What is summer like is the big old swath of the country with almost nothing going on. Of course, it’s not the big omega blocking jet pattern – quite the opposite, actually, with a couple of troughs interfering with one another. Still, the effect is the same, as tranquil conditions are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday, with temperatures much warmer than they are today. We’ll make it through Illinois, and call it a day in Hobart, Indiana, just south of Lake Michigan.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
There is a wave scooting through Canada, giving the perception of a dome of high pressure dominating the heartland. This perception will be betrayed when the system reaches the north end of the Great Lakes. The associated cold front will hook up with that lake moisture and supply a little bit of snow east of Michigan and Erie. We should have no problem outpacing the burst of snow while we are in motion, but when we stop in Le Roy, New York, southwest of Rochester, the boundary will catch up to us. Don’t be surprised to find a thin dusting of snow on our car on Wednesday morning.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
As that Canadian low starts to move poleward, it will hook up with a big swath of moisture moving through the Gulf stream. Our drive across the Hudson and into New England will be dry, however the coast will be rainy for much of the day. Because of our pace, we might get to Providence before the clouds and rain leave town, but when it does, the sun will be soon to follow. Oh, it won’t be warm or anything, but the sun will definitely be out.

Providence, Rhode Island

Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High High 41, Low 32
Tuesday – Sunny, High 55, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds.  High 43, Low 32
Tuesday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon.High 57, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cooler High 43, Low 32
Tuesday – Warmer with sunshine and patchy clouds High 58, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,  High 42, Low 31
Tuesday – Sunny,  High 59, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 39, Low 31
Tuesday – Sunny. High 54, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 41, Low 31
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 56, low 35

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until night. High 42, Low 35
Tuesday – Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 57, Low 38

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