Flint, Michigan

Today I’m reporting from Sunny SoCal! Yup, it’s vacation post time for me! I bet some people in Flint would like to be where I am right now, when they see what’s in store for them.

At 1153pm EST, the temperature at Flint, Michigan was 26 degrees under fair skies. High pressure controlling New England and most of the Northeast extends over the Great Lakes, keeping overall conditions fairly tame tonight. However, a big change is a comin’ over the next couple of days, and it’s taking shape over the Plains currently. A rather impressive pool of cold air aloft has dropped down over the Rockies as a trough swings through the western US. Throughout they day Monday, low pressure is going to develop over KS/OK and lift NNE-ward, spreading rain and snow from the Dakotas/NE to MO/IL. For Flint, this doesn’t mean much for Monday, just increasing clouds. However, as the low screeches to a halt over MN/IA, the occluding front will race through the Western Great Lakes, bringing rain to Lower MI. Flint looks like they should dodge the heaviest precip on Tuesday, but it will be enough to damper everybody’s mood. Could be worse, could be in SD/MN where around a foot could fall in some areas!

Monday: Cool start to day, increasing clouds. High 46, Low 25.
Tuesday: Light rain through afternoon hours, briefly moderate at times. High 49, Low 36.

TWC: Monday: Partly cloudy. High 45, Low 24.
Tuesday: Morning rain showers. High 49, Low 35.

AW: Monday: Mostly cloudy. High 46, Low 24.
Tuesday: Cloudy, a couple of showers. High 50, Low 37.

NWS: Monday: Patchy fog then partly sunny. High 44, Low 25.
Tuesday: Chance of morning showers, then lingering drizzle. High 48, Low 37.

WB: Monday: Patchy fog until around noon, then mostly sunny. High 44, Low 25.
Tuesday: 50% chance rain showers. High 48, Low 37.

WN: Monday: Partly cloudy with patchy fog. High 45, Low 25.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 48, Low 37.

FIO: Monday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 47, Low 26.
Tuesday: Light rain until afternoon. High 52, Low 34.

Not much cloud wise happening over Michigan tonight, with more significant coverage happening over the Midwest. Enjoy it now, since conditions will deteriorate as the week progresses.

San Angelo, Texas

For once, we might be going to where the weather is the worst. What does San Angelo have in store for us?

At 1151, CT, San Angelo was reporting a temperature of 38 degrees with overcast skies. Scattered showers were generally found north of San Angelo, but there was a cell getting ready to work its way through town. A strong jet had dived down into northwestern Mexico, with a long plume of heavy rain running from Texas all the way to the Upper Ohio Valley, while there was a ripple of a wave in the strong base of the trough, creating some amplification and introducing cooler air over the Southern Plains.
Fortunately, sub freezing temperatures don’t look to be as significant a threat while it’s precipitating through the day today. That said, there will be threat for freezing rain as nearby as Abilene through the afternoon today, and in San Angelo, much of the day will be marked by rainfall. The impulse along the jet will shift to the northeast through the day tomorrow, which will carry much of the moisture into the Mississippi Valley, but it won’t do too much for temperatures. Surface low pressure will organized in the central Plains as the impulse shifts away, which means another slug of heavy rain before things wrap up, followed by drier and warmer conditions on Monday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers High 46, Low 35
Monday – Clearing and warmer, High 58, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Showers 44, Low 32
Monday – AM Clouds/PM Sun, High 63, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Warmer; a little morning rain followed by a shower in spots in the afternoon Hgh 46, Low 34
Monday – Warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 62, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely. Cloudy, High 47, Low 35
Monday – Partly sunny, High 60, Low 37

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain Likely, High 47, Low 35
Monday – Partly cloudy, Not as cool 60, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Light Rain Likely High 46, Low 37
Monday – Partly Cloudy High 61, Low 37

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain until afternoon. High 44, Low 36
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 60, Low 38

So obviously, it looks a little nasty. I’m going cooler than our rivals, because I see all the potential for cold advection coming from the north. Here is the radar, showing all those spotty showers
San Angelo

The Week Ahead 11/9/15-12/5/15

The final month of the year. I just want you to know that there will be a two week hiatus for the two weeks prior to Christmas. I need a vacation! Here is the week ahead.

Sunday – Flint, Michigan
Tuesday – Lancaster, Pennsylvania
Wednesday – Canton, Ohio
Thursday – Macon, Georgia; Road Trip from Canton to Macon
Saturday – Tallahassee, Florida

Kankakee, Illinois

We’re headed to the western Great Lakes, the Chicagoland area or the Great Lakes for today’s forecast, depending on your local parlance.

At 715PM, CT, Kankakee was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees with light rain. Kankakee’s overcast was helping to keep freezing temperatures at bay, as subfreezing temperatures were found as close as Rockford. Light rain was most widespread in northern Indiana, with the shower activity more scattered southeast of a line from Joliet to Macomb in Illinois.
Kankakee will remain at a region of great atmospheric conflict for the next couple of days. There is a a jet streak running from northwestern Mexico to the Great Lakes, with a weaker segment from the Oklahoma Panhandle to Iowa. With the stronger base of the trough, there is going to be strengthening of low pressure circulation in the region. The arctic jet is ridging prominently in northern Canada, helping to engender a strong surface ridge in the northern Rockies. As the low developing in the southern Plains strengthens, expect it to begin moving northeast along the jet. This will mean shower activity will remain a possibility in Kankakee through much of the day tomorrow. That said, the feature will be moving away from the base of the trough that fed it, and the northern ridge will push it to the southeast. Kankakee will be cooler but drier on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Overcast with light rain, High 43, Low 35
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 45, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 41, Low 35
Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 44, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy and colder High 42, Low 36
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 45, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 42, Low 36
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 45, Low 31

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 42, Low 36
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 44, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy High 43, Low 36
Sunday – Partly Cloudy High 45, Low 32

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 46, Low 36
Sunday – Mostly cloudy in the morning. High 48, Low 32

Unusual. I’m usually the most optimistic, but I am the only one with rain in the forecast for tomorrow. Hmm. Here is the radar right now. It definitely LOOKS like rain is on the outs.

Wet weather for the Rio Grande

Brownsville wasn’t threatened by the strong system that brought snow to the Upper Midwest on Thanksgiving and is supplying ice to the southern Plains at this hour, at least, not in the same way. There was never any freezing or subfreezing weather weather, really at any applicable level over Brownsville, and especially not at the surface. The moisture rich flow feeding all the inclement weather, however, was alive and well, and both Wednesday and Thursday, there were some fairly significant rains. It’s about as bad as it gets in Brownsville, because temperatures were still in the 70s ad 80s. Accuweather and Weatherbug were the odd couple that drew level for the day.
Actuals: Monday – .20 inches of rain, High 79, Low 71
Tuesday – .11 inches of rain, High 84, Low 75

Grade: B-C

Black Friday will mean ice in the south

Thanksgiving meant snow, and quite heavy in parts of Wyoming and Nebraska, but Black Friday’s most significant threat will be freezing rain. Let’s take a quick look at some of the dynamics that will lead to that threat for ice. The first variable, obviously, is the temperature. Naturally, the forecast will be for below freezing temperatures throughout the day. Take a look at where temperatures will be below freezing.
In order to be freezing rain, though, we need the precipitation to fall as rain, which means a warm layer aloft. One way to piece that together where you might have precipitation falling as rain is to look at thicknesses. If you see any part of the country outside of the Rockies with the red lines, there is a good bet that at least part of the layer is above freezing. Note the map below, overlaying those red and blue thickness lines with the precip forecast
warm thickness
If you are referencing our two maps, you will see the greatest threat for ice will be in western Oklahoma into Northwest Texas. That’s what the National Weather Service believes as well, as you can see on their ice forecast map for Friday.
blackfriday ice
Be careful if you go out in Lubbock, Amarillo or Woodward. It could be an awfully slick drive to and from the store.

Temperatures on the rise

Today, this Thanksgiving, it is raining in South Bend. Yesterday, however, there was a vigorous southerly flow that allowed temperatures to climb from their lowest depths on Tuesday morning, when it was only 20 degrees all the way to 51 degrees yesterday. That’s definitely something to be thankful for, right? I mean, even if today is a bit of a washout, at least there was one last good day to be outside before winter comes charging in. The Weatehr Channel had a victory, narrowly defeating Victoria-Weather. Happy Thanksgiving, all!
Actuals: Tuesday – High 40, Low 20
Wednesday – High 51, Low 32

Grade: B-D

Trouble for Thanksgiving?

A strong area of low pressure is forming across the northern Rockies, and will further develop as it arrives in the High Plains. There will be showers and thunderstorms developing from the western Great Lakes to the Mexican Border. Showers and storms will be heavy, but driving through rain isn’t the worst thing in the world. What needs to be monitored is the cold air forecast to spill in behind the storm. These are forecasts for tomorrow, only. Here is the potential for significant snow tomorrow, which will be the snowiest day this week.
The greatest threat is across the mountains, of course, but there is a swath through the Twin Cities through Sioux Land as well. Of greater concern to travelers will be the threat for some freezing rain or sleet in the Plains.
This is the threat for freezing rain tomorrow, with an obvious bullseye over Nebraska. The threat will build south through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle for the day after. Fortunatley, the east and west coast look to be untroubled by significant weather, so the entire country won’t slow down.

Blue sky in Greensboro

There were definitely some clouds across the Carolinas the last couple of days, but there were some peeks of sun Greensboro, particularly yesterday. A chilly wind behind a departing system in the mid-Atlantic kept the city in the 40s, but with the sun, Greensboro saw temperatures climbed into the mid 50s. WeatherNation and The Weather Channel were very good, and tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Monday – High 48, Low 28
Tuesday – High 56, Low 27

Grade: A-C

Brownsville, Texas

Hello again from Victoria-Weather. We’re headed way down to far southern Texas for this mid-week forecast.

At 853PM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with overcast skies. There was a steady onshore flow across the southern portion of Texas which was producing the mid level overcast. A broad upper level trough over the Rockies is helping to encourage the onshore flow, but Brownsville is far enough south that dramatic changes aren’t expected.
As surface troughing emerges in the northern Plains, the Gulf will open up a bit more. Expect a little bit of light rain in central Texas, but Brownsville along the Rio Grande in far southern Texas is too far to the south to get caught in the moist flow, and Brownsville will be overcast but dry tomorrow. The mean upper level trough will move into the Plains and will really start churning up showers and thunderstorms from Kansas to west Texas, and will pull enough cold air in the back side to produce snow. This more vigorous wave will also mean a better chance at some light rain in Brownsville, as a more moisture laden flow presses through south Texas. Of course, the richer flow will also be more southerly, and temperatures will start to climb behind those southerly winds.
Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 79, Low 68
Thanksgiving – Chance of rain, otherwise cloudy, High 83, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Showers, High 79, Low 68
Thanksgiving – Cloudy, High 82, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower in the area High 79, Low 68
Thanksgiving – Mostly cloudy and breezy with a shower in the area High 83, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 68
Thanksgiving – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers, High 81, Low 68
Thanksgiving – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 84, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 81, Low 68
Thanksgiving – Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 82, Low 73

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 82, Low 70
Thanksgiving – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 85, Low 72

Brownsville will get brushed by precipitation, but in general, they will be watching the mania unfold well to the north for the Holiday weekend. Here’s the satellite imagery of Texas tonight, showing some milky clouds down wind of the Gulf.

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