San Diego, California

It’s a hot one out west. Fortunately, San Diego is right up on the coast where perhaps it will be a little bit cooler.

At 826PM, PT, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A cool wind off the south Pacific was bringing in a shallow marine layer that was als being seen as far north as Carlsbad. It was in stark contrast to areas inland, which were still as warm as 110 degrees near the Salton Sea.
High pressure in the southern Rockies is the one of the typical features that contribute to suffocating southwestern heat waves, and there is a really good ridge out there right now. Ridging jet flow and a broad, stalled trough in the eastern US, as well as Tropical Storm Cindy will slow down any breakdown of the ridge for the foreseeable future.
Tomorrow – Marine layer clouds early, late, then sunny, High 79, Low 64
Thursday – Early clouds and fog, High 76, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon High 78, Low 65
Thursday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 72, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds and fog giving way to some sun High 78, Low 66
Thursday – Low clouds and fog giving way to some sun High 72, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 79, Low 63
Thursday – Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 75, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, Becoming mostly sunny. Patchy dense fog in the morning, High 82, Low 65
Thursday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning, High 77, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 63
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 80, Low 67
Thursday – Partly cloudy until afternoon.High 78, Low 66

So not too bad on the coast, mostly because of the marine layer, which you can see on the satellite below.

Bret, a potential friend usher in a quick start to the topical season

June 1st was the official start of the north Atlantic hurricane season, but usually, the season really gets going in the late season. There are a few ways that we can get tropical cyclones to develop out in the Atlantic this time of year, however.

  1. They stay in the warmest waters, near the equator or
  2. They churn up in the Gulf of Mexico, aided by subtropical forces.

Well, here’s the way it looks tonight, according to the NHC satellite overlay.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 is the most immediate threat to the US mainland, and regardless of the associated winds and rotation with it, it will bring the potential for isolated tornadoes and copious rain along the Gulf Coast. Guidance at this point has the center of circulation making landfall within about 100 miles of Lake Charles, Louisiana, with some targeting Houston, and some pointed towards Lafayette. Here is a good average spaghetti plot.

The storm will nearly certainly strengthen, but fortunately, a hurricane is not expected from 3, which will likely end up being Cindy.

The greatest concern with this system is going to be the rainfall, particularly that falling on the eastern flank of the storm. Think places like New Orleans and east towards Pensacola. Flooding rains are likely.

Bret, by every definition, will be a stronger storm. It’s so strong it has no time for a second t. The greatest impact Bret will impart will be to northeastern Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago, all coming as the storm passes overhead within the next few hours.

Despite the early orgnization and  name, Bret will likely not even match 3  in the early stages, at least in terms of intensity.

Bret will continue to move into warmer waters off the Central American coast, and will need to be monitored as June turns towards July.

The Tropics have picked up early this season, however the activity isn’t completely unusual, and hasn’t yet proven to be exceptionally dangerous compared to other weather that has impacted the region in the past. The best thing to do, as always, is to remain vigilant and continue to keep a close eye on the Caribbean.

Lower Michigan, upper 80s

We looked at Jackson, Michigan way back last week, in the midst of their early June heat wave. Temperatures weren’t cooling off, at least not through the beginning of the week last week, as they continued to reach the upper 80s to low 90s, all as a warm front remained parked to the northwest, unwilling to move on so relief would find its way in. Forecasters generally knew how stubborn this boundary would be, and the results were pretty good. They were the best for WeatherNation, who had the victory.
Actuals: Sunday – High 89, Low 69
Monday – High 90, Low 68

Coming soon…

Let’s hit some of the country’s largest colleges (especially since they aren’t in session right now) and then move on to visit the western US.

San Diego, California

Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Road trip from Tuscaloosa to State College, Pennsylvania

Road Trip from State College to Odessa, Texas

Fort Collins, Colorado

Yakima, Washington

Brunswick, Georgia to Panama City, Florida

We’re going to take a road trip, but we’ll make sure it’s brief today, as we head from the Atlantic coast of southeast Georgia to the Gulf Coast of the Florida Panhandle. The cities of Brunswick are separated by 332 miles and a little over 5 hours. A big chunk of the day will be slowed by travelling through Jacksonville, but we will still maintain a pace of 64.9mph. We are spending quite a bit of time in north Florida, so I hope you like it.

There isn’t much organization in the southeastern US, but with low pressure continuing to ebb and fade in the northeast, sea breezes will continue to collide with slightly drierair inland, and produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain won’t be widespread, by any means, but don’t be surprised by a few scattered showers here and there as we pass through north Florida. The best area for convergence is always around Lake City, so if you want to make bets or something, bet on seeing a shower there. Also, if you want to make bets, you have a gambling problem. The threat for rain will still be present in Panama City, but it should be more sun than rain.

Panama City, Florida

I did some research to assuage my curiousity. Indeed, the Florida version of Panama City was named after the one in Panama, because it was founded during the height of Panama Canal Fever,which is actually sounds like an infectious disease, seeing it in print. will the weather seem Central American as well?

AT 353PM, ET, Panama City was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with rain showers. There were isolated thunderstorms literring the interior of the eastern Gulf region, and along the coast, the thunderstorms have ended and given way to more general rain showers. Flow from the southwest towards a weak area of low pressure in the northeast, bringing in the moisture that was enveloping the region.
While the pattern continues to churn to the northeast of the Panama City area, it will be left relatively unchanged in the Florida Panhandle. A moisture rich southwesterly flow will continue to feed ever organizing and reorganizing areas of low pressure in eastern Canada, which means that more isolated showers with some embedded thunder will remain possible, especially in the afternoons, for the next few days.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High 89, Low 72
Saturday – Less active, High 89, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Cloudy skies late High 85, Low 73
Saturday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Partly cloudy skies late. High 84. Low 75

AW: More clouds than sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 84, Low 74
Saturday -A thunderstorm in spots in the morning followed by a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 84, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 75
Saturday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 76
Saturday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 84, Low 75
Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 84, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until evening. High 83, Low 77
Saturday – Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 84, Low 78

Here is a look at the radar from this afternoon, with just a swath of rain moving into the Panama City area.

Hurricane Season Teases

Hurricane season for the Atlantic basin started a couple weeks ago, and all-in-all, it looked like quiet days were expected. That’s exactly how it’s panned out so far, but it looked like something interesting was getting stirred up around the Yucatan Peninsula! The 00 and 06Z GFS model runs indicated a low pressure system spinning up in the Bay of Campeche in about 6-8 days and meandering its way towards the Texas/Mexico border. Something to keep an eye on!

Then… the 12Z and 18Z model runs came through. Expectations were had! Instead, almost nothing of note is found there anymore. A bit of a surface trough still lingers in the region with clusters of possible convection festering nearby, but nothing like the earlier runs indicating a B-named storm getting spun up. The only area of note is waaaay out in the Atlantic, near the Cape Verde Islands. Usually we don’t get too excited about storms that far out in June/July since the upper level patterns don’t typically favor development that far east. August/September is usually when we gander that far out. But until then, we’ll continue to wait.

Everyone wins!

To end the week, the weather in New Orleans was immaculate: not a cloud to be seen, while temperatures only climbed to the mid 80s, which is very comfortable for this time of year down in the Bayous. So the residents of New Orleans were big winners, but so were the forecasters. There was a 5 way tie atop the leaderboard, leaving only the NWS and FIO out of the spoils. A cool morning low on Friday was a big enough hiccup that despite the tranquility, this tie wasn’t because everyone had an excellent showing.
Actuals: Thursday – High 84, Low 73
Friday – High 84, Low 64

Grade: C

Storms roll through the Twin Cities: VIDEO

A derecho plowed through the northern Plains and western Great Lakes today, taking aim at the Twin Cities metro area. As luck would have it, I had an appointment on the south side of Minneapolis this morning, so as my wife drove from the southern suburbs, I captured a few videos.
First, here we are driving north along I-35W in the south metro, looking at the looming storm to the west. Note the lightning already evident, along with a very ominous shade of green underneath the leading darker clouds. That green hue is owed to ice crystals in the clouds refracting sunlight as it filters through.

As we continue north, the leading gust front passed over us on 35 as we reached the Bloomington area. Keep in mind, as ominous as the clouds were, we actually ended up passing through one of the safer portions of the storm. Significant damage was seen in the north metro, and a copious amount of hail was received in the west metro, but we didn’t see either in our drive.

The storm was closing in! If nothing else, the system brought a whole lot of rain. Here, we continue through south Minneapolis, fully inundated by the storm. Nearly all traffic had pulled to the side of the road, but we pressed on.

The storm was a good example of a long-lived derecho event, starting in South Dakota and running all the way to northern Michigan by the end of the day, leaving a swath of damage along the way. Look at how nasty these videos look, and realize that we didn’t even get the worst of it, for the length of our 15 mile drive. This is the problem with derechoes: They cover a lot of ground and affect a lot more people than a typical supercell or squalls.
Still, it looked pretty cool, right?

Weather Wayback… A flurry of activity

It seems crazy to think that it was just three months ago that we were talking about snow in our forecasts, but that was just the case on March 13th in Terre Haute, Indiana. There was just a flurry in Terre Haute, but that’s still pretty late in the year, especially in southern Indiana. Most of our outlets weren’t fooled back when we issued the forecast, however, with 6/7 calling for the flurries. It was a result of a massive system moving up the coast, prepared to bring some significant weather to the Mid-Atlantic coast, and even on the periphery, nearly everyone was on point. If I recall, the forecast was a little overwrought in the big cities, but at least there was success in Terre Haute. WeatherNation won this March forecast, and did so with panache.
Actuals: March 13th – Trace of snow, High 33, Low 21
March 14th – High 34, Low 18

Grade: A-C

The official blog of Victoria-Weather