Forecast

Decatur, Illinois

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The first big winter storm of the year got its start in the lower Mississippi Valley before charging northeast to New England. The Eastern Seaboard is getting attention for the snow they are seeing, but they caught a little bit in southern Illinois as well.

At 1054PM, CT, Decatur was reporting a temperature of 24 degrees with clear skies and haze. The recently fallen snow and clear skies were leading to the radiation fog developing across the region overnight. Fog was prevalent throughout east central Illinois, where temperatures were slightly depressed thanks to the recently departed system, which was now centered over Cincinnati, with clouds terminating at the Indiana-Illinois state line.
The upper level pattern is quite active, so this period of tranquility around Decatur is going to be short-lived. A bit warmer weather is coming tomorrow with a weak ridge between the system that clobbered the region today and a Clipper moving through the Upper Midwest, scheduled to arrive in central Illinois on Saturday afternoon. Snowfall is going to be significantly lighter than the snow of the last 24 hours, but it will be persistent, and linger through the rest of the day Saturday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 24
Saturday – Snow showers start in the afternoon. Up to an inch possible, High, 37, Low 31

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 37, Low 25
Saturday – Considerable cloudiness. Occasional rain showers in the afternoon. High 39, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; chilly High 40, Low 29
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, cold; a flurry around in the afternoon High 40, Low 27

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 39, Low 24
Saturday – Cloudy, High 40, Low 28

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 37, Low 27
Saturday – Cloudy, High 38, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 39, Low 28
Saturday- Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 40, Low 28

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting in the morning. High 37, Low 25
Saturday – Overcast throughout the day. High 37, Low 28

Well, this is interesting. I know Clippers, especially when they arrive with warmer temperatures, aren’t always a sure thing, but I’m surprised snow is being left out by so many outlets. Here is a look at the satellite, with the monster area of low pressure that brought snow earlier, looking like a hurricane over the Ohio Valley.

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Doink!

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Florida is both easy and difficult to forecast for. You can say that there is no synoptic scale reason to expect any significant thunderstorm threat, as I did in Deltona, but there is always a myriad of microscale phenomena to latch onto a moist parcel and blow up rogue thunderstorms, which is exactly what happened on Monday. Though the synoptic forcing seemed to want to kick things to the north, or so it seemed, a slow moving thunderstorm parked over Deltona shortly after noon, bringing nearly half an inch of rain, and preventing temperatures from reaching their full potential. Other than that thunderstorm, Victoria-Weather had a perfect forecast. Of course, because  of that storm, the NWS and WeatherNation snuck in for victory.
Actuals: Monday .41 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 84, Low 68
Tuesday – Rain reported, not measured, High 88, Low 71

Grade: A-C

Story

Deadly wildfires sweep California

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There are, as you have undoubtedly heard by now, two terrible wildfires are laying waste to parts of California. The Camp Fire has killed dozens, particularly in the town of Paridise near Chico, and 2 in the Woolsey Fire in Malibu. Both have been terrible. 

The Woolsey Fire has earned headlines because of the A List celebrities who have been touched by this fire. WeatherNation has some overhead imagery from this inferno.

The Camp Fire, much larger and more deadly, is fortunately not in as well populated terrain. CBS News provides the pictures and updates. 

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Weather Wayback – Holiday hangover

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As we approach Thanksgiving 2018, we can look back to Christmas 2017 and think “wow, what happened there?” Shortly after Christmas, Anthony put together an unusually chilly forecast for Tallahassee, and much to the surprise of all interested parties, a cold frnt made it even colder than anyone expected. Nearly half an inch of rain fell on December 27th, and on the 28th, temperatures only made it to 48, a far cry from the forecast highest in the upper 50s.It was a bad forecast across the board, but the NWS and WeatherNation ultimately pulled off a sllightly better forecast.
Actuals Thursday December 27th, .41 inches of rain,  High 50, Low 43
Friday December 28th, High 48, Low 33

Grade: C-D

Schedule

Coming soon…

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The holidays are approaching, and with Thanksgiving in particular coming up next week, we won’t have much for targeted forecasting, but we will have a few posts more generally about the weather.

Decatur, Illinois

Canton, Ohio

Forecast

Deltona, Florida

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Let’s think about a trip down to the Sunshine State shall we? Mmm, that IS quite nice. If your imagination isn’t there yet, why not enjoy this forecast telling you exactly what the weather looks like?

At 853PM, ET, Deltona was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees. There were light showers being reported near Orlando, but they weren’t perceptible on radar, though there were a few areas that looked suspicious on the water vapor imagery. There was a light onshore flow south of a diminishing front in the northern part of the state.
The lingering boundary to the north will continue to diminish as the base of an upper level trough helps with the explosive develop a strong area of low pressure at the surface over Texas. It will collect a massive amount of moisture as the system drives to the northeast. Warm, moist flow will be transported across Florida as the system tracks through the Tennessee Valley. Florida will be dry on Monday, but as the boundary lifts to the northeast, and a cold front moves into Alabama and Georgia, cross flow across Florida will increase, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely for Deltona on Tuesday evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, High 88, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day. High 86, Low 68
Tuesday – Partly cloudy early with thunderstorms becoming likely during the afternoon.  High 87, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 86, Low 68
Tuesday – Times of clouds and sun, a shower or thunderstorm around High 87, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, High 87, Low 66
Tuesday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 88, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness with a slight chance of showers,  High 83, Low 69
Tuesday – Considerable cloudiness with a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms, High 85, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 88, Low 67
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 88, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 85, Low 66
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 86, Low 67

Here is a look at the satellite I reference. A couple off pop up clouds near Orlando, even if I can’t see them on radar. 

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All verifications, all the time

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One thing that readers tell us all the time, is that, if we could just post nothing but verifications all the time, it would really improve the site. Well, here you are, faithful readers, the fourth in a row! OK, nobody is demanding that, but we are cleaning up some back log, including this look at Huntsville, where they remain behind a front late last week. There was a steady stream of moisture into northern Alabama from the west, sprinkling the area with, well, sprinkles. Temperatures ere held in check by the persistent overcast, particularly overnight, when the Thursday morning low was only 4 degrees cooler than the afternoon high. Forecast.io had the top forecast in the Alabama’s tech capital. 
Actuals: Wednesday – .06 inches of rain, High 62, Low 45
Thursday – .03 inches of rain, High 55, Low 51

Grade: B-C

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Duluth doldrums

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Lake effect snow is certainly something that CAN happen in Duluth, but it is not something that happens often, thanks entirely to the fact that it is on the northwest shore of Lake Superior, and is rarely downwind from the Lake. There was some easterly flow, though, early this week, and though most of the snow fell up the shore, there was quarter inch of liquid in Duluth, but the big impact was the thick layer of clouds smothering town, keeping temperatures fairly static through the period. Victoria-Weather put together the top forecast. 
Actuals: Monday – .11 inches of liquid in snow, High 39, low 35
Tuesday  .13 inches of liquid in snow, High 39, Low 31

Grade A- C

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November takes a turn

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We forecast for Harrisburg at the beginning of the month, and had to watch as the Keystone capital was battered by successive rounds of low pressure centers moving from Texas to New England. One of the heaviest batches if rain came through on Thursday, with nearly 2 inches of accumulation swamping the city. At least it was a work day, right? A good work day to remain indoors, it seems. Forecast.io and The Weather Channel came together to put forth the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 74, Low 50
Thursday – High 69, Low 54

Grade: C

 

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