Fayetteville, Arkansas

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Arkansas has a surprising number of cities that we can drop forecasts for. The Northwestern Arkansas corridor is definitely more lively than one would normally be lead to believe.

At 953PM, CT, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with clear skies and dew points also parked in the upper 70s. It is a surely uncomfortable night which will see some haze across the region by morning. There are heat advisories out across the region, except in the Fayetteville area, where terrain and foliage will help blunt the high temperatures.
Low pressure in the Hudson Bay area is the only particularly well organized system in North America, and it is dangling a generally ineffectual boundary through the heart of the country. It is peeling back dew points a bit, and promoting a moist flow through the Lower Mississippi Valley northward, and will continue to do that through the day Sunday. The weak boundary will arrive in town by evening, and may lead to a more comfortable Monday, with isolated thunderstorms a distinct possibility throughout the day on Monday, but also in the evening on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. High 92, Low 73
Monday – Mostly cloudy, scattered showers and storms, High 89, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then partly cloudy late High 92, Low 72
Monday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 92, Low 73
Monday – Humid with more clouds than sun; an afternoon thunderstorm High 91, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 93, Low 73
Monday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 92, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. High 90, Low 75
Monday – Partly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 93, Low 72
Monday – Partly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 92, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, Low 73
Monday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 72

Here is the satellite for the evening, which just shows how clear the skies are to night in the south central US.

Laredo, Texas

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We’re heading down to the banks of the Rio Grande for our forecast this evening. Typically this time of the year, we can expect some high heat and a little bit of humidity. Is that the case today as well?

At 656PM, CT, Laredo was reporting a brisk 30mph gust with fair skies and a temperature of 84 degrees. Dew points were near 70, and the moisture rich environment provided an atmosphere that was active with precipitation. A line of thunderstorms ran from north of Victoria to north of Laredo. The storms nearest Laredo on the American side of the border are beginning to diminish, because they are driven less by any synoptic feature, but mostly on the diurnal interaction with onshore flow.
A remnant frontal boundary north of the Gulf Coast is leaching some moisture away from south Texas, but is more importantly allowing the space for high pressure to develop over the western Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible in Laredo tomorrow, owing less to the onshore flow, and more to the monsoon flowing through Mexico and north towards the dry line and the Front Range. As high pressure builds, it will interrupt the flow of instability into Laredo, and the end of the week projects to be dry, but much warmer.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, High 97, Low 75
Friday – Sunny and hot, High 102, Low 78

TWC: Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. High 94, Low 75
Friday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 101, Low 78

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with times of clouds and sun High 93, Low 75
Friday – Breezy and less humid with times of sun and clouds High 99, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 96, Low 77
Friday – Sunny and hot, (early AM rain) High 100, Low 78

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 93, Low 77
Friday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny,, High 100, Low 78

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 95, Low 77
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 100, Low 78

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 94, Low 75
Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 98, Low 77

The radar picture below is probably going to be a little less noisy tomorrow, and more so on Friday.

Severe weather batters Europe, Canada

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The United States is experiencing it’s own catastrophes this year. Growing wildfires and drought in the west, with flash floods in the southeast, along with heatwaves in the north. A lot of the worst weather in the world seems to afflict the United States in an outsized fashion, but it seems that is not the case in recent weeks.

First is the story of flooding in central Europe. Relentless and heavy rains have been hammering Benelux and western Germany, leading to river flooding on the Rhine in Germany and the Meuse in Belgium in particular, with subsidiaries an other rivers also spilling out of their banks. The intensity of the rains also led to flash flooding in these areas, while the river flooding is continuing to disrupt lives, with the threat of disease adding onto threats to infrastructure and livelihood.

The flooding was the result of a stalled, training pattern of showers and thunderstorms that lasted for the better part of last week. The good news is that the flooding is going to be allowed to abate over the next week, at least. High pressure over the British Isles is going to drift toward the Low Countries and barricade them from additional rainfall for the week. The next real threat for showers and thunderstorms is next weekend, and we can all hope that the feature moves as quickly as the models presently suggest.

A bit closer to home, tornadoes are in the news. The US has had an incredible string of good fortune, in that there were no tornadoes stronger than EF2 in May or June. Unfortunately, in Barrie, Canada, the tornado news was worse. A tornado – measuring at an EF2 – struck residential parts of the community, taking roofs off of houses, but fortunately, doing structural damage and sparing the residents of the houses it hit.

Listen to the tale of Natalie Harris, a City Councilor in Barrie, who saw significant damage to her home during the twister on Thursday.

The greatest damage was to the far southeastern part of town. The damage would surely have been more significant if it had been just a couple miles to the north.

Not enough

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As everyone is likely aware, the western US is embroiled in a drought. The seasonal monsoon is helping in some spots, but at the beginning of the monsoon wasn’t able to bring a whole lot of rain to Prescott, among the many locales that is in a deficit right now. If there was any good news, I guess it was that the heat wasn’t as overbearing as it can be in the southwest. The Weather Service and Weathernation conspired to tie for the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday – High 93, Low 66
Tuesday – Rain reported, not measured, High 91, Low 73

Grade: C

Feature Forecast: Pocatello, Idaho, Feature Forecaster: Doug Iverson

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Joining us today for the forecast is Doug Iverson, the Chief Meteorologist at KPVI in Pocatello, Idaho. Mr. Iverson likes to go by the moniker Doug I. the Weather Guy, and can be found at Twitter @dougiweatherguy. Mr. Iverson is a native to Idaho, and surely has a little extra insight into the weather of Pocatello. Take it away, Doug!

Yay…the weekend is almost here.  The Snake River Plain will see less of that  wildfire smoke and more of that hot sun.

More heat on the way

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Another massive heat wave is in the forecast according to the CPC’s outlook, and this time, the region expected to be baked is the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Curiously, while the northern US roasts, the southern part of the country looks to be well below normal. In the summer, that’s comfortable, so it’s not the story,

Unlike the blocking ridge that brought the heat in the Pacific Northwest last month, this looks like a more traditional ridge allowing all that heat to build. Temperatures from Montana through the Dakotas and into northern Minnesota could hit triple digits through early next week.

There will be a remnant mid and upper level trough over the southern US, which will lead to several rainy days, and keep temperatures cool. If it weren’t for that trough, given the greater jet pattern, a more significant heat wave could have been in store for a bigger population.

Prescott, Arizona to Bakersfield, California

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For whatever reason, we don’t get a lot of trips that are spent entirely out west, like this one. It will last nearly a full, and will cover 481 miles at a pace of 63.2mph, thanks to the lower capacity roads through the desert. Looks like it’s time to get moving.

Prescott, Arizona

The afternoon monsoon looks to be full and robust tomorrow in the Four Corners region. That means very little for us, however. Prescott will have a slim chance for some afternoon showers and storms, but by that time, we will be deep into the Mohave, hoping our tires don’t melt to the road in the heat. Temperatures will easily reach the triple digits tomorrow in Bakersfield, and you have to imagine it will climb even warmer before we reach town in rural California.

Bakersfield, California

Prescott, Arizona

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The heat has been extraordinary in the southwest, but Prescott is often in a more favorable weather pattern than their gigantic neighbors to the southeast. How does that translate this time around?

At 753PM, PT, Prescott was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with clear skies. Some monsoonal rain showers were appearing on radar west of town, and a brisk west wind likely represented outflow, especially given the southeasterly winds of similar magnitude in Kingman. Guidance suggests a stronger ridge tomorrow over the central Rockies, which will stifle the monsoon and lead to a hot dry day in Prescott.
Expect some weakening of the ridge and an amplification of the monsoon. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be most common in the higher terrain nearer the New Mexico border, but the coverage is expected to increase on Tuesday. Showers and storms are likely to crop up near Prescott, and it’s tough to leave it out of the forecast for Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 96, Low 68
Tuesday – Isolated thunderstorms, especially after noon, High 89, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 91, Low 70
Tuesday – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 89, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon High 92, Low 70
Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 87, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 69
Tuesday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 89, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 90, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 85, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with chance of storms High 93, Low 69
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 89, Low 69

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 93, Low 69
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 67

I should note that it is 20 degrees cooler in Prescott than it was in Phoenix. Some of it is surely the thunderstorm nearby, seen on radar below.

Tallahassee, Florida to San Diego, California

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Hello, and happy weekend! In the dead heat of summer, a road trip across the southern US sounds like the last thing one might want to do, but frankly, most cars have functioning air conditioning, so why not? It will take us a surprisingly swift 4 days at a pace of 70+mph, which is pretty close to our top speed, maybe ever. This will allow us to cover the 2176 miles between the towns in 561 mile chunks (a little less, somehow, on Day 4). Let’s blow the doors off this thing, huh?

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Tallahassee, Florida

Thunderstorms are raging in the Plains tonight, from Colorado and Nebraska southeast through Iowa and Illinois. They will continue to shift to the east southeast through the day. Bad news for the middle of the country but good news for drivers on the Gulf Coast. The showers and storms will be focused along this axis of instability, and will steer clear of the immediate Gulf Coast, leaving only a little bit of spotty activity between Mobile and New Orleans, but not much else. Our day will end on the east side of Lake Charles, still reeling from the last hurricane season. Thankfully, we’ve been quiet so far.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
That feature in the middle of the country is going to slow down and wind up over the weekend. A cold front will develop over north Texas and become evident by the evening in the Dallas area, but we aren’t driving through north Texas or Dallas. It will stay Texas hot and Texas dry in the southern part of the state. We’ll get just west of Ozona before we conclude our drive for Sunday.

DAY THREE (Monday)
The drive will continue through mostly pleasant conditions on Monday, but the seasonal monsoon is underway out west. The slightly elevated ground along the New Mexico – Arizona border could provide some fertile ground for scattered thunderstorms, and we might see a splash west of Lordstown, New Mexico. They will mostly be wrapped up, but still possible as we slide into Wilcox, east of Tucson.

DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
A similar pattern is expected for Tuesday. Importantly, this means that showers and storms will wait until late in the day to develop, and will generally be confined to the same spots on Tuesday as they were on Monday. That is to say, they will be most likely in the New Mexico/Arizona border region, which we will long be out of by the time thunderstorms develop. It’s just the hot, dry desert for us through Arizona and inland California, with the pearl at the end of the drive, beautiful San Diego.

San Diego, California