Wheeling, West Virginia

West Virginia is lucky enough to have two Panhandles. Our trip today will take us to the northern edition.

At 353PM, ET, Wheeling was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with clear skies. A dissapating warm front was parked just north of Wheeling, with a broad area of clouds with a few embedded showers between Wheeling and Lake Erie. To the south, West Virginia was sunny and warm. Along the lake shore, it was 30 degrees cooler in the clouds and rain.
The warm air will continue to pump north through the day tomorrow. With this warm, moisture rich air rolling over the Appalachians, there could be a few showers quite a few clouds across southeastern West Virginia especially, though a few may filter north to the Ohio Valley.  The warm front and this moisture infusion are a byproduct of a strong area of low pressure moving from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Monday. A strong cold front will become weaker through the forecast period as it approaches Wheeling. Expect a few showers and storms as the boundary arrives on Monday afternoon. Just because of the warmth that Sunday will bring, there is a chance that some of those storms may be briefly severe.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, warm with some isolated showers, High 82, Low 59
Monday – Early afternoon thunderstorms, then clearing and cooling off, High 75, Low 55 (Non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible.High 88, Low 61
Monday – Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 75, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in the area; the temperature breaking the record of 83 from 2012 High 86, Low 61
Monday – Some sun, then clouds; a strong t-storm, breezy and not as warm; storms may bring damaging winds High 73, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 60
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 77, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm. High 85, Low 62
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. high 71, Low  58

WN: Tomorrow – Party cloudy, High 86, Low 61
Monday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 77, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting overnight, continuing until afternoon. High 88, Low 60
Monday – Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 77, Low 58

The Weather Channel and Weathernation don’t go far out into the future to see what they really think of the low on Monday night. Below is the satellite, showing the warm front pretty well to the north of Wheeling.

Ann Arbor, Michigan

Today we head off to the home of the Wolverines, Ann Arbor! Although the football coach seems to be gallivanting around Europe, let’s see what the students will see for the weekend!

At 853pm EDT, the temperature at Ann Arbor, MI was 56 degrees under overcast skies. An elongated stationary boundary is found camping out from southern New England back through the Ohio Valley and continues to an intensifying area of low pressure over the Southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to train along this boundary throughout the early morning hours, keeping the Ann Arbor area mainly dry and we head into midday. One area of low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary in MO and kick up some a round of heavier rain and thunderstorms as it pushes into the Great Lakes during the late evening. As the overall system intensifies and starts to occlude, the center of the system will push further towards the Great Lakes, with the boundary lifting northward ahead of it. This brings southern Michigan pretty much right in the path of heavier rain and thunderstorms throughout the evening hours on Sunday. Overall, unfortunately, it looks to be like a pretty dreary weekend. On the bright side, temperatures will lift noticeably for Sunday!

Saturday: Evening rain showers and thunderstorms. High 54, Low 45.
Sunday: Morning rain, heavy at times. Possible evening thunderstorms. High 64, Low 43.

TWC: Saturday: Showers. High 52, Low 42.
Sunday: Thunderstorms. High 62, Low 40.

AW: Saturday: A shower; cooler. High 50, Low 43.
Sunday: Rain and a t-storm; warmer. High 63, Low 41.

NWS: Saturday: Showers likely. High 53, Low 44.
Sunday: Showers likely. High 62, Low 43.

WB: Saturday: 50% chance of rain showers. High 52, Low 43.
Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 62, Low 42.

WN: Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 54, Low 43.
Sunday: Cloudy with thunderstorms likely. High 61, Low 43.

FIO: Saturday: Light rain overnight and in the afternoon. High 59, Low 47.
Sunday: Rain starting overnight. High 77, Low 45.

Here we see some light rain showers passing off to the south of the area. A very heavy swath of rain is found from St. Louis clear through Columbus, which looks to start shifting northward over the weekend.

A rough day on the Cape

A rainy, slow moving system sliding up the Eastern Seaboard brought a bunch of rain to the coast this week. We all knew it was coming, but the rainiest parts were moving faster than most anticipated. In Barnstable, unfortunately exposed to the elements in the Gulf Stream. We knew rain was a possibility, but they saw almost an inch on Tuesday alone. The good news was that temperatures couldn’t drop out of the 50s. The bad news was that the temperatures couldn’t even manage to climb out of the mid 50s on Monday or Tuesday. This all worked out well for Victoria-Weather, who manhandled the forecast and our competition.
Actuals: Monday – High 55, Low 44
Tuesday – .97 inches of rain, High 53, Low 50

Grade: A-D

Burlington, Vermont

We’ve been watching a feature slide slowly up the coast. Today, it arrived in the Mid-Atlantic. Will it bring problems to northern New England?

At 754PM, ET, Burlington was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with overcast skies. There were a few showers being reported in Montreal and Saranac Lake, as well as at the north end of Lake Champlain, but the remainder of Northern Vermont was avoiding and damp conditions. This was merely because Burlington had found a window bbetween areas of showers, as tere was a band stretching from the Gulf of Maine to the Hudson to the south, and batches of shower activity east and west. The center of circulation for the responsible area of low pressure was sitting off the coast of Atlantic City.
The shower activity will continue through the morning as the upper level eddy swings into the Canadian Maritimes. The feature is actually moving within a broader upper level trough, so after the rain clears out, Burlington will warm up swiftly. Thursday will be mostly sunny as well as the next system to impact the region will be moving towards James Bay, all the while dragging more warm air into Vermont. Clouds will increase late on Thursday as the feature gets closer.
Tomorrow – Morning showers, then warmer, High 68, Low 47
Thursday – Warmer still, with sun and clouds late, High 74, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day. High 66, Low 46
Thursday – Sunshine and clouds mixed.High 73, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy in the morning, then periods of sun and clouds in the afternoon (morning showers) High 66, Low 47
Thursday – Warmer; cloudy with areas of fog in the morning, then a blend of sun and clouds in the afternoon High 77, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. a chance of showers in the morning. High 63, Low 47
Thursday – Mostly sunny. High 69, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly Sunny, High 79, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, Low 47
Thursday – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 76, Low 54

It’s very rainy in New England today, but there is a pretty good agreement that starting tomorrow, it’s going to get much warmer. here is the radar for all of New England.

New York, New York

We are going to take our forecast attitude to the Big Apple today. I imagine the forecast will be fairly similar to Barnstable yesterday, but maybe not as cool. As always, we are forecasting for Central Park.

At 1051AM, ET, New York was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 57 degrees with clear skies at Central Park. La Guardia and JFK were reporting overcast skies as an area of low pressure worked its way up the coast from the Carolina. This feature will bring some showers to the region as soon as tomorrow, with a heavier round of rain likely tomorrow afternoon.
A weak upper level wave is being pulled north towards a broader upper level trough in Canada, and riding the leading periphery of a south to north jet over the Mississippi Valley. As a result, despite the expected well organized circulation of this feature, it will not import any cooler air midweek. To the contrary, it will be much warmer by Wednesday as the rain clears out.
Tomorrow – Showers, some heavy in the afternoon, High 55, low 50
Wednesday – Morning showers, then clearing, High 61, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with rain likely High 55, low 51
Wednesday – Overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 61, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Cooler with periods of rain High 53, Low 50
Wednesday – Warmer with occasional rain and drizzle High 62, low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain Showers, High 53, Low 50
Wednesday – Cloudy, early rain, High 61, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Rain, High 55, Low 50
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of light rain in the afternoon, High 63, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with Rain High 54, low 48
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 66, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting overnight. High 54, low 48
Wednesday – Light rain until morning. High 63, Low 54

We are looking at a pretty well smothered in the Big Apple. mmm, smothered apples…. Here is the latest radar, showing some showers moving in.

Carolina Deluge

We’re still a good 5-6 weeks away from hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin (even though we just had our first named storm last week, which didn’t do anything other than annoy some fish and perhaps a shipping lane or two), but that doesn’t mean areas of the US can’t see tropical moisture in mid-Spring. A cut-off area of low pressure is traversing the Southeast US right now, which has taken some Gulf Stream moisture and dumped it over the Carolinas at its’ leisure. Widespread reports of 2-4 inches of rain has fallen from Central TN eastward throughout the Carolinas, with much of the rain falling over the Carolinas in the last 24-36 hours. Some portions of the Smoky Mountains have come in at 6-8 inches over the last couple of days, prompting Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings over most of Central and Southeastern NC and northern SC as well. Here we see the rainfall amounts over the last 3 days and unfortunately, it continues to rain heavily in NC tonight and will into tomorrow.

Morning Mischief

The forecast for Muncie, IN wasn’t too difficult, only the chance of a stray shower was the real wrinkle. However, the temperatures really muddied things up as the Sunday diurnal was far greater than anybody expected, mainly due to conditions really clearing out overnight Saturday. Sunday’s chilly morning temps caused some poor scores, but VW/FIO tied for the win, mainly by keeping things dry all weekend.

Saturday: High 58, Low 40.
Sunday: High 72, Low 34.
Forecast Grade: C

Barnstable, Massachusetts

How about a forecast? I haven’t dabbled in this market for a while, it might be nice.

At 956PM, ET, Barnstable was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with clear skies. A light southwesterly wind off of the Atlantic was keeping temperatures cool, as they typically do on Cape Cod. Location aside, there was a cooler air mass over southeastern New England, with upper 40s covering the region. There is high pressure in the area, but it is decidedly Canadian, meaning the continued sunshine the area will receive tomorrow will be seasonably cool.
An eddy at the upper levels is centered over the southeastern US. It will be inexorably drawn towards the broader upper level trough moving through eastern Canada. Owing to the warmth and its proximity to the Gulf stream, the surface reflection of the perturbation in the southeastern US will ingest a great deal of moisture. The low will reach the Hampton Roads of Virginia by Tuesday afternoon, and when it does, it will be able to pull moisture off the Gulfstream into Cape Cod. Tuesday afternoon, as a result,  looks to be dreary with a few showers throughout the day.  The good news is that the showers will also bring in warmer air, meaning after the forecast period is over, temperatures will be on their way up.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 44
Tuesday – Cooler with rain in the afternoon. High 53, Low 46 (nonstandard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 59, Low 42
Tuesday – Rain. High 51, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then increasing clouds High 58, Low 42
Tuesday – Cooler with periods of rain High 51, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 61, Low 40
Tuesday – Rain likely, mainly after 9am. Cloudy, High 50, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 43
Tuesday – Rain likely. High 51, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 39
Tuesday – Cloudy with light rain, High 50, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting in the morning. High 54, Low 44
Tuesday – Light rain starting in the morning.High 50, Low 46

Some outlets seem to thing tomorrow can still get fairly warm. It will come down to how much sun they can see, and how calm winds are. Check out the developing system in the southeast. You can see a swirl over Tennessee where the low is emerging.

Weather Wayback… Before the drought

Earlier today, the SPC issued an extreme fire danger advisory for parts for New Mexico and Arizona, as neither location has seen much rain since the middle of February. In Farmington, where Anthony forecast on the 10th, they haven’t seen more than a trace since February 12th. Incredible to note that that .08″ they saw on that Sunday before Valentine’s Day was the last significant precipitation they saw, and we were there for the forecast. It looked to be a rainy weekend, especially by northwest New Mexico standards, but Saturday remained dry. Looking at how things have gone since then, I’ll bet they would have appreciated a little bit of rain on Saturday! For verification purposes, we can award Accuweather the top forecast for that particular February weekend.
Actuals
Saturday, February 11th – High 64, Low 43
Sunday, February 12th –  .08 inches of rain, High 53, Low 37

Grade: B-C

April Showers

The 6-10 day outlook is definitely not one that seems to encourage outdoor activities. As it appears right now, a large portion of the country, notably almost all of it east of the Rockies, looks to see above average precipitation. There projects to be a slow moving trough over the center of the country, with a southwest to northeast jet running from Texas to the Great Lakes for several days. Model guidance suggests several systems following this path  from the middle of next week into the weekend, with the rainy core of these features following the brightest highlight on the map.

This is going to be a sloppy week for a lot of the country. With that trough continually reinforced next week, it looks to be rather chilly in the Plains, but unusually warm along the east coast. This clash could lead to a dicey situation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Stay tuned!

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