Storms come roaring through

Last weekend was a pretty gross one around the Great Lakes, as an area of low pressure moved northeast towards Hudson Bay, Along with it came a cold front that brought severe weather to the Ohio Valley, and as the weekend wound to a close, it strafed the mid-Atlantic. Utica appreciated a last taste of summer before the boundary swept through Sunday evening, with temperatures touching 80 degrees before a line of thunderstorms charged through town, dropping a quarter inch of rain and contributing gusts that touched 45mph. With all this commotion, the NWS kept a level head and had a very good forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – High 69, Low 57
Sunday – .25 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 80, Low 55

Grade: A-C

Ophelia pummels Ireland

Actual Palm trees in Ireland: Via: Smithsonian

I think we can all say honestly that of all the Atlantic Islands to be battered by a tropical feature this year, Ireland was not near the top of our list. Alas, Ophelia is a nasty extratropical cyclone, battering the British Isles today in a strange turn in an already unusual tropical season.

Ophelia is the easternmost hurricane in recorded history, and this was before she became post tropical and clipped the western counties of Ireland, killing three and knocking out power to hundreds of thousands of people. She is continuing towards Scotland today, and will impact Scandinavia later in the week.

Getting nasty weather from the Caribbean or tropical Atlantic isn’t that unusual for Ireland, however. Consider that in the southwestern part of the island, there are actually palm trees, transported as seeds from the Caribbean by those same currents that guided Ophelia and many other storms, albeit non-tropical to the British Isles in the past.

We tend to forget about these tropical features after they have left North America, but a common graveyard for tropical systems from the western Atlantic is actually Iceland and the North Sea. They batter the southwestern part of the island, keeping it the dismal but somewhat verdant island that it is

Typically, storms follow the Gulfstream off the coast of North America before teetering off towards the North Sea. Storms that the rest of continental Europe sees tend to drift through the Atlantic before veering back into the continent, if they are indeed of oceanic provenance. For a tropical system to be traceable to a hurricane, however, is very unusual because the central Atlantic is quite foreboding to those storms, thanks to the broad and chilly Atlantic.

Indeed, the typical route is for such storms to go north, up and over the Sargasso Sea, following the warmer currents towards Iceland. Ireland, though it is on a parallel latitude with Labrador is, unintuitively, an unusual place to receive a post tropical storm because of how far south it is.  They get their share of nasty weather in Ireland, and despite some fatalities and power outages, the Emerald Isle should be able to weather Ophelia as well as one could hope.

Warm in the Valley

San Jose was situated post frontally and surrounded by a host of wildfires on Thursday night, which suggested to some of us that the temperature on Friday would be held in check. It was not. Down sloping flow and clear skies allowed temperatures to climb to nearly 80 on Friday, and to reach that point on Saturday. Equally clear skies allowed temperatures to drop all the way to the mid-40s overnight. There were two schools of thought on this forecast, and the one espoused by Accuweather came to fruition. The others, a less dynamic solution brought forth by Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service was profoundly unsuccessful. Accuweather had the easy win.
Actuals: Friday : High 78, Low 45
Saturday – High 80, Low 48

Grade A-D

McAllen, Texas

Our trip today will be down to the southernmost point of Texas, right across the Rio Grande from Mexico. Weather can be fairly static throughout the summer, but with winter approaching, perhaps there is some intrigue in McAllen.

At 353PM, CT, McAllen was reporting a temperature of 93 degrees with clear skies. After the tail of a cold front moved through earlier today, there is still a great deal of convective activity off the coast from Brownsville, but a vorticity maximum now over the Gulf is inducing a brisk northerly flow, helping the 90 degree weather be a bit more bearable.
High pressure will build into the region through the early part of next week, even as the vorticity maximum sinks towards the Yucatan and deepens as an area of low pressure. This will simply mean a continued dry and somewhat cooler northeasterly flow.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early, then sunny, HIgh 82, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny, High 85, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 80, Low 66
Tuesday – A mainly sunny sky.  High 84, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy, less humid and not as warm with clouds breaking for some sun High 80, Low 67
Tuesday – Plenty of sun High 83, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 66
Tuesday – Sunny, High 85, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then clearing. High 78. Low 70
Tuesday – Sunny, High 81, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 82, Low 66
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 80, Low 64
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 82, Low 57

Here is the radar, showing a very large batch of thunderstorms just off the coast. Otherwise, it looks really nice over south Texas. 

Bremerton, Washington

Today we visit the shores of the Puget Sound! However, we’ll be looking at a place opposite of Seattle, on the western shores of the sound, Bremerton.

At 838am PDT, the temperature at Bremerton, WA was 37 degrees under fair skies. High pressure is building over the Pacific Northwest, keeping a system moving in over British Columbia off to the north. Weather for Sunday should be fairly pleasant, with some spotty morning fog possible before giving way to partly cloudy skies by afternoon and temperatures in the low to mid 60s. More of the same is expected for Monday, but as the high pressure breaks down late in the day, another system advancing into Western Canada should have enough power to push southward and bring rain to the Western Washington area. Some showers look like they could move in a couple hours before midnight, but the bulk of the precip looks to move in on Tuesday morning.

Sunday: Decreasing clouds during the day. High 62, Low 41.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, isolated late evening shower possible. High 61, Low 43.

TWC: Sunday: Sunny. High 63, Low 44.
Monday: Partly cloudy. High 64, Low 44.

AW: Sunday: Partly sunny. High 64, Low 42.
Monday: Partly sunny. High 64, Low 42.

NWS: Sunday: Patchy fog then mostly sunny. High 62, Low 44.
Monday: Areas of fog then mostly sunny, possible late evening showers. High 63, Low 45.

WB: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 62, Low 44.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High 62, Low 44.

WN: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 62, Low 44.
Monday: Partly cloudy. High 63, Low 45.

FIO: Sunday: Partly cloudy overnight. High 64, Low 40.
Monday: Partly cloudy in the morning, continuing until evening. High 64, Low 42.

On the water vapor imagery from this morning, a system is passing off to the north and then a lull is anticipated before the next system moves in in a couple of days, which is not however the very evident system off the CA coastline.

Utica, New York

After the fire engulfed west coast, we are turning our attention to the Mid-Atlantic, which is in that nice period between incredible summer time heat, and oppressive snow storms. Nothing like that yet.

At 1253AM, ET, Utica-Rome was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with overcast skies. A strong, winter-like jet is rushing through southeastern Canada, inducing a southerly flow through the eastern Great Lakes, as well as a mid level overcast throughout western New York.
There is an area of surface low pressure in the exit region of the strong, 160mph jet streak in Canada, as well as a developing low in the base of the trough over central High Plains. A stationary boundary lies along the jet between the two features, and will begin to act as a warm front as the low in the Plains becomes more well formed tomorrow, allowing temperatures to warm up fairly significantly tomorrow afternoon. That will continue in earnest on Sunday through the early afternoon, before a gusty cold front moves in late in the day. The flow into the low will be from the southwest, which means most of the moisture will be lost and rainfall will be light, but the wind and subsequent drop in temperature will be quite noticeable.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 58
Sunday – Warm and windy, with thunderstorms late, High 81, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow -Areas of patchy fog early. Cloudy. High 70, Low 57
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will give way to cloudy skies and rain in the afternoon. High 79, Low, 52

AW: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness and warm with a shower in places High 72, Low 55
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, windy and very warm High 80, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy,  High 71, Low 57
Sunday – Partly sunny,  (late rain, thunderstorms) High 80, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. High 70, Low 55
Sunday – Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy, High 77, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Light rain, High 71, Low 56
Sunday – Light rain, High 80, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 58
Sunday – Rain starting in the evening. High 76, Low 60

I had to back my way into WeatherNation’s forecast tonight because their site is pretty unresponsive. It would be upsetting if they win, but their forecast looks strong. Here is the satellite, showing some clouds in the shadow of Lake Ontario.

San Jose, California

Everywhere from the Coastal Ranges and west towards the coast in California is in a dramatic battle with flames engulfing anything in their path. This is a region desperate for moisture and cooler temperatures, as well as a diminishing of winds in the region. Will that relief be coming?

At 1153AM, PT, San Jose was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 71 degrees. It’s low lying valley location allowed it to be one of the few sites in northern California not reporting smoke or obscuration at the hands of the prolific fires across the region. Smoke was visible on satellite imagery north of San Pablo Bay , flowing to the southeast towards San Francisco and the north Pacific. This was in response to a strong upper level trough diving into the area through the Pacific Northwest. While it was going to bring rain and snow to those areas, it is only providing more dangerous blustery conditions to residents of the Napa and Sonoma Valleys.
The trough is on its way out of town, which is excellent news for firefighters. A ridge will build back into the coastal regions of northern California, which will have the effect of steering fire away from the more populous regions closer to the coast, though in San Jose, some slightly warmer temperatures appear to be in the offing, thanks to the emergence of downsloping flow. Unfortunately, with the arrival of the ridge, winds likely won’t fully subside through the forecast period.

Tomorrow – Sunny with haze and breeze. High 71, Low 49
Saturday – Hazy with a bit of an onshore wind High 77, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. Areas of smoke reducing visibility at times High 76, Low 49
Saturday – Mainly sunny. High 81, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny.High 77, Low 47
Saturday – Hazy sunshine, breezy and smoky; extreme fire danger high 80, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 47
Saturday – Sunny,High 75, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 48
Saturday – Sunny,High 80, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, low 47
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 49

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 76, Low 46
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 80, Low 45

The 6z GFS has been in tune with temperature trends today, while other models have gone a bit rogue. Victoria-Weather, the NWS and WeatherNation are the only three to follow along. Below is compelling satellite imagery of northern California, wherein you can see smoke streaming off shore.

Cold Morning Chaos

The early morning showers dodged the Corvallis area, so dry weather was had throughout the last couple of days. Skies overnight had cleared out and temperatures plummeted a lot more than expected, which threw most forecasts out of whack by a good 5-8 degrees. Oops. Accuweather was the best of the bunch.

Sunday: High 64, Low 39.
Monday: High 66, Low 33.
Forecast Grade: C-F

More to come

The weekend could have been a real soaker in Amish country in Pennsylvania, but the two biggest features moving into the Lancaster area worked against each other. A cold front moving out of the Appalachians brought all the rain on Sunday morning, with clearing coming as Nate drew flow away from the boundary. There was a bit of rain as Nate approached late in the day, but each afternoon was dry. Today, the real rain arrived with Nate, and it was much messier. It was a tight forecast, as the increasing overcast kept temperatures pretty close together, so the NWS and WeatherNation tied for the victory, with a narrow defeat of the opposition.
Actuals: Saturday: High 84, Low 60
Sunday – .10 inches of rain, High 79, Low 733

Grade: B-C

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