Verification

Winter’s last gasp

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There have been a lot of false alarms, looking at the past few weeks, in which we said that winter was nearly through, but I think the system that rolled through the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic early last week was proooobably it. It clipped Utica, our forecast site way back when, and brought temperatures from comfortable spring time temperatures down to below freezing, with a smudge of snow. Victoria-Weather and Weatherbug were kindred spirits, drawing level on this forecast occasion.
Actuals: Monday (the 16th) – .35 inches of rain, High 46, Low 33
Tuesday – .03 inches of rain and snow, High 36, Low 30

Grade: B-D

Forecast

Pocatello, Idaho

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Off to the Northern Rockies to see how the start of this week will fare!

At 815pm MDT, the temperature at Pocatello, ID was 67 degrees (that sensor seems a bit off). An area of low pressure found over WY is connected to a cold front that runs up into Central Canada and trails a boundary over northern UT/NV. This area of low pressure will shift out towards the Northern Plains during the day Monday, keeping a healthy amount of precip over Southern MT (with some hefty snow totals up in the mountains) and rain/spotty thunderstorm activity over south-central ID tonight. This activity will continue pushing eastward with the low overnight, bringing some precip to the Pocatello area before dawn. After sunrise, the precip should have shifted off to the east of the Pocatello area, drying them out for the rest of the day with decreasing clouds. High pressure builds down over the region behind the low, making for a pretty nice midweek period.

Monday: Some early morning rain shower/isolated thunderstorm activity. Drying out by dawn with decreasing clouds during afternoon. High 55, Low 38.
Tuesday: Sunny and warmer. High 63, Low 30.

TWC: Monday: Rain in early morning hours, then becoming mostly sunny. High 57, Low 41.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 64, Low 32.

AW: Monday: Breezy with clouds and sun, an isolated morning thundershower possible. High 57, Low 42.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 32.

NWS: Monday: Chance of showers, thunderstorm possible after noon. High 57, Low 44.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 64, Low 35.

WB: Monday: Chance of morning storms. High 54, Low 44.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 62, Low 32.

WN: Monday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 57, Low 44.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 64, Low 35.

FIO: Monday: Rain until morning, then clearing. High 57, Low 42.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy until evening. High 64, Low 36.

There’s a bunch of ground clutter around the Pocatello area, but the echoes found off near Twin Falls and Jackpot are indeed real. This spotty activity will affect the region into midday tomorrow before making way to pleasant conditions the next few days.

Story

A pattern change

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For most of the spring, the country has been plagued by a broad, slow moving wave right across the center of the country. It’s been spectacularly unpleasant, with Arctic air lingering over the continent of North America for the last couple of weeks, introducing record lows and several late season snow storms.

Fortunately, the tide seems to be turning. The mean jet flow is finally forecast to shift north, indicating that the chilly air will finally be pent up where it belongs, at least for the long term. As you can see with the forecast jet stream analysis for Monday, the continuous stream lies just north of the Canadian border.

Thee will still be a threat for a cold air invasion late next week, but not nearly on the scale that we’ve seen for the beginning of the month, as the pattern has become much shorter in wavelength. Any period of cooler air will be briefer, and won’t be able to sneak as far south.

The jet is retreating, along with the cold air, but it isn’t switching pattern immediately. The northern part of the country is simply moving closer to normal, rather than suddenly moving above normal.

Verification

Weather Wayback… Autumn came on time

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Back in September, just as summer ended and fall arrived, Anthony looked at the weather in Salt Lake City. We have had a tough time seeing the arrival of spring this year, but Salt Lake City had no delay in seeing fall arrive. A cold front swept through town, bringing temperatures down to an autumnal level, right when temperatures are supposed to be brought down to an autumnal level. SLC is in a deep valley, and they tend to dodge most of the significant weather, but the 21st and 22nd were cool and gray, just like it’s supposed to be in the fall. The Weather Channel secured victory for the day.
Actuals: September 21st – Rain reported, not measured High 58, Low 51
September 22nd – .01” of rain, High 53, Low 41

Grade B- C

Forecast

Anderson, South Carolina

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I think it is underrepresented just how many people live between Charlotte and Atlanta. One big town after another. Anderson isn’t even the biggest town in the mix. It’s not even the second largest town in the mix, behind Greenville and Spartanburg. Let’s give these forgotten upstaters a forecast, shall we?

At 956PM, ET, Anderson was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with clear skies. After a cold, rainy day Tuesday, most of the southeast has rebounded nicely. Winds were now southwesterly, tapping into more regionally appropriate air fresh from the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure is fleeting, however, as the mean jet continues to cut west to east through the middle of the country.
A weak shortwaved trough in the middle of the country will tail the feature that plagued the northern portion of the country recently, though with a more southerly approach. The feature will be unable to bring as much cold air south, and an inactive cold front will instead drape across the southern United States. When it moves through early tomorrow morning, it will do so without any fanfare, though Thursday will likely be a hair cooler than today. A well established, more permanent, but slight cooler batch of high pressure will settle in behind the front to take Anderson through the remainder of the work week.
Tomorrow – Early clouds, then clearing, High 70, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 70, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 68, Low 58
Friday – Mainly sunny.  High 68, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with some clouds, then sunshine High 69 Low 56
Friday – Plenty of sun High 68, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 68, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny breezy, High 68, Low 62
Friday – Sunny, High 67, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 57
Sunny – High 68, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning. High 70, Low 52
Sunny – Clear throughout the day. High 69, Low 40

So not a lot going on in Anderson, so we turn to the satellite imagery. I can’t get over how good these new overlays look.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 07 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C07_G16_s20181090232240_e20181090235025_c20181090235060.nc

Verification

A turn for the worse

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There Bridgeport was, just minding their own business, enjoying a spring weekend with temperatures in the mid 60s on Saturday. Delightful! Well, overnight, a big area of low pressure in the Great Lakes approached, and its friend, Gulfstream Moisture, rushed to meet it. This lead to a much cooler, drizzly day on Sunday, completely turning the weekend on its head. Ultimately, the top forecast went to The Weather Channel, so you can blame them for things getting so nasty as the weekend ended.
Actuals : Saturday – High 64, Low 44
Sunday – .46 inches of rain, High 45, Low 37

Grade A –C

Road Trip

Nashville, Tennessee to Charleston, West Virginia

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Today we travel between state capitals that are almost exactly the same distance from Frankfort, KY (another state captial) as one another. That’s right, Nashville and Charleston are both pretty much right at ~180 miles away as the crow flies from the capital of Kentucky. Fun fact right? Today’s one-day trip won’t go through Frankfort, but will spend plenty of time in the Bluegrass State.

It’s a fairly dry but chilly start to the day as we head northwards out of Nashville on I-65 towards Bowling Green. There might be a few spotty rain showers as we hit Elizabethtown and head eastwards on I-64, but shouldn’t be anything to be really worried about hazard-wise. As we cruise past Lexington around noon, showers should be mostly dried up and the rest of the day will be cloudy but dry as we head into Charleston.

Forecast

Charleston, West Virginia

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As the Upper Midwest continues to get buried under this historic April snowstorm, let’s take a peak at how the Mid-Atlantic is faring.

At 1154pm, the temperature at Charleston, WV was 49 degrees with light rain falling. Even as this potent low pressure system that’s sitting over Lake Huron and Erie continues to dump snow over the Upper Midwest, the intense cold front associated with it is pushing through the Mid-Atlantic region into the Northeast US. The back end of heavier rain showers are pushing out of the area currently, but scattered rain showers are expected to last throughout the overnight and the daytime hours tomorrow as northwest winds keep some upslope activity popping in the region. Temperatures are expected to drop throughout the day and by early Tuesday morning, could be cold enough for a brief snow shower to mix into the activity. Conditions should clear out by midday, precip-wise anyways, and make for a dry midweek period.

Monday: Lingering morning showers, flares back up in afternoon. High 49, Low 37.
Tuesday: Isolated morning rain/snow shower, then drying out for afternoon. High 52, Low 32.

TWC: Monday: Showers. High 43, Low 36.
Tuesday: Isolated showers, then cloudy. High 52, Low 33.

AW: Monday: Windy with rain, mainly early. High 51, Low 37.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 51, Low 33.

NWS: Monday: Chance of showers. High 44, Low 36.
Tuesday: Slight chance of rain/snow showers. High 49, Low 33.

WB: Monday: SITE DOWN
Tuesday: SITE DOWN

WN: Monday: Cloudy with chance of light showers. High 53, Low 36.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix. High 49, Low 33.

FIO: Monday: Rain overnight. High 49, Low 34.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 55, Low 32.

Weatherbug really needs to get their act together, right? Rain is shifting slowly eastward out of the region, but some lingering light shower activity remains into the early morning hours.

Forecast

Utica, New York

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A forecast filled weekend is drawing to a close. Of course, we keep dancing around where the weather is at it’s most interesting. Utica will provide it’s own thrills, even if it doesn’t snow a foot and a half or bring severe thunderstorms.

At 1228AM, ET, Utica was not reporting an observation, however local sites were reporting temperatures near freezing, and a spot of precipitation was seen northeast of Herkimer, and was likely producing sleet and freezing drizzle, thanks to a slow moving warm front that lies between Syracuse and Skaneateles. The center of low pressure associated with this system lies over western Pennsylvania, and the frontal complex is going to continue to occlude, however there is heavy rain and thunderstorms still being generated at the heart of this feature.
The upper level trough is tilted aggressively within the mean trough which suggests that it will be unable to continue propagating with terrible alacrity. The heaviest precipitation will move through overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, with mostly heavy rain. The precipitation will lighten, but the cold air will finally cycle in overnight Monday into Tuesday. Light snow showers will be possible as the low languishes over southern Quebec well into mid week.
Tomorrow – Heavy rain, especially early, with a wintry mix late, High 46, Low 30
Tuesday – Light snow and overcast with some drizzle late, High 38, Low 31

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with morning showers evolving to a steady, soaking rain in the afternoon High 46, Low 31
Tuesday – Cloudy with rain and snow showers early changing to mainly rain showers in the afternoon. High 39, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Strong winds gradually subsiding; rain and drizzle; strong winds can down trees and power lines High 49, Low 33
Tuesday – Cloudy with a couple of snow showers High 42, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm.  High 46, Low 32
Tuesday – Snow showers likely, possibly mixed with rain before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, 42, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms. Rain with freezing rain likely in the morning then rain in the afternoon. Ice accumulation around a trace. High 46, Low 32
Tuesday – Rain and snow showers likely. High 38, Low 33

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 46, Low 33
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix, High 42, Low 35

FIO: Tomorrow – Heavy rain until afternoon and breezy starting overnight, continuing until afternoon. High 53, Low 37
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 47, Low 39

Looks pretty gross, doesn’t it? Forecast.io is pretty optimistic on the temperature, so we’ll see if good thoughts lead to good weather. Here is the radar showing the blob off precip near Herkimer.

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