Odile tears through Cabo San Lucas

Odile

The Pacific hurricane season remains active, from Iselle in Hawaii to Norbert in the desert southwest, and now Odile rumbling through the Baja Peninsula. At this time, the storm lies over the Peninsula itself as a Category 2 hurricane. Odile is forecast to continue north-northeast into the Gulf of California and bring some rain to southern Arizona eventually. This is a tough route for Odile to be able to sustain itself, so the heavy rain that flooded Phoenix with Norbert probably isn’t likely.
Back to Cabo. There are some reports of 11 inches of rain falling from Odile in Cabo San Lcas, but the real story was the wind. Odile made landfall at the resort destination as a category 3 storm, the strongest to ever make landfall on the Baja Peninsula, and it was nearly directly over the resort destination. The damage wrought by 125mph winds and flooding rains has lead to widespread damage across the resorts that dot the towns, as well as evacuations and full storm shelters throughout the Peninsula. Take a look at some images below.

More images of the damage can be found at EverythingWX.

Little Rock, Arkansas

Off to the center of Arkansas today. How will the beginning of the week play out in Little Rock?

At 1253PM, CT, Little Rock was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The clouds across Little Rock were a part of a narrow band through the center of the state, and the rest of Arkansas was generally clear. Synoptically, the region was seeing a weak pressure gradient, but wasn’t really under high pressure. An upper level trough was swinging through the Upper Midwest, and a tropical wave over the western Gulf of Mexico was disorganized enough to help produce widespread showers across the Gulf.
Some of that moisture is expected to be drawn north by the upper level trough, but the cold air within the trough won’t sink far enough south to really trigger any significant precipitation. Still, as the boundary at the leading edge of the trough moves into Arkansas on Tuesday, it will dredge up a few clouds and the chance for some light showers, making for a bit of a bleak day.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 60
Tuesday – Overcast with a chance for drizzle, High 84, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy High 83, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny High 84, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 81, Low 61
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 84, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 82, Low 63
Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 82, low 62
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy High 82, Low 63
Tuesday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 82, Low 66

I’m confused by a couple of forecasts. It really doesn’t look like moisture will really begin to be excised from atmosphere until Tuesday morning, so I don’t know why Accuweather has the rainy day forecasts backwards. Here is the satellite at present, showing no signs of imprending drear.
Little Rock

Drizzle Disaster

In the wake of a cold front, an upper level trough brought a swath of showers through the Great Lake. At the surface, it looked like there would be persistent high pressure, which perhaps scared so many forecasters off of putting rain in the forecast for South Bend. Unfortunately for so many forecasters, the drizzle hung on as moisture moved through surface high pressure and brought nearly a tenth of an inch of precipitation between Friday and Saturday. Victoria-Weather was the only outlet to have rain in the forecast both Friday and Saturday, while some didn’t have any at all. Even if we hadn’t had the top precipitation forecast, we would have done pretty well with our temperature forecasts — at least compared to other outlets. The real problem this time out were the overnight lows, which, despite the drizzly overcast, bottomed out in the low 40s, which was significantly lower than anyone expected. Like I said, though, Victoria Weather was top on precipitation and near the top for temperatures, ultimately grabbing the top overall spot as well.
Actuals: Friday – .03 inches of rain, High 59, Low 43
Saturday – .04 inches of rain, High 61, Low 43

Grade: C

Sheboygan, Wisconsin to Hagerstown, Maryland

Let’s finish the weekend and begin the week with a short little trip covering 775.8 miles and lasting for a day and a half. Our pace will be 62.4mph, and that first day, Sunday, when traffic is a little better, we will be through after 499 miles of driving. 500 would be too much.

DAY ONE (Sunday)
sheboygan
After a long series of days with cloudy skies and cool temperatures across the Great Lakes, we can get rid of one of those two things to begin our drive. It will still be a bit cool as we head from Wisconsin through Illinois, Indiana and most of Ohio, but the sun will be out! There really should be no weather problems for the day. Even the sun won’t be in our eyes, as we will be driving east. The day will end in Streetsboro, Ohio, northeast of Akron.

DAY TWO
It’s going to be even more tranquil as we head through western Pennsylvania,a sliver of West Virginia and ultimately, arrive in Hagerstown. Temepratures will even be a few degrees warmer, and the drive through Appalachia will be very scenic.
Hagerstown

Hagerstown, Maryland

We’re on our way again to another forecast destination. This time, we are hitting western Maryland and the city of Hagerstown.

At 1214PM, ET, Hagerstown was reporting low clouds, drizzle and a temperature of 57. The low clouds were helping produce light rain across a good deal of eastern Maryland, with the back edge between Hagerstown and Cumberland.An upper level trough moving through Canada has been generating scattered showers across the Great Lakes, but as it emerges into the eastern Great Lakes, it has organized into an area of surface low pressure, dangling a boundary producing the showers through the Mid-Atlantic.
As the surface feature moves up the St Lawrence Seaway, the weak axis of showers will shift off the coast and the miserable conditions over central and western Maryland will alleviate late this afternoon.. Dry air and laminar flow aloft will lead to surface ridging over the mid-Atlantic for the next 48 hours or so, and Hagerstown will get a chance to air out a bit.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 47
Monday – Sunny, High 75, Low 51

TWC Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 70, Low 46
Monday – Sunny High 76, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasant High 70, Low 48
Monday – Mostly sunny and nice High 84, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 47
Monday – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 58
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 75, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 70, Low 46
Monday – Partly Cloudy High 75, Low 52

A look at the radar shows most of the rain is east of Hagerstown at this point, with some wonderful weather ahead.
Hagerstown

The Week Ahead: 9/14/14-9/20/14

Just a word to the wise, I’m out of town from Thursday to Sunday next week, so I’m not sure that the posting schedule will be entirely followed. I’m hoping so, but I can’t give you any promises.

map

Sunday – Little Rock, Arkansas
Wednesday – New York, New York
Thursday – Richmond, Virginia
Friday – Bloomington, Illinois; Road Trip from Richmond to Bloomington
Saturday – Road Trip from Bloomington to Rapid City, South Dakota.

The Atlantic’s most active time of year

Edouard

Climatically speaking, September 10th is the day with the highest frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes. It’s the peak of the season, so to speak. Obviously, it’s more of a symbolic peak, as the most active period generally covers late August through much of September, and you can safely say that we are currently in the season’s most active period.
As you can see by the image above, there is only one tropical storm, Edouard, and two invests, but no hurricanes. Edouard is going to steer clear of the Caribbean and Bermuda, while the system near Florida won’t develop into anything and the second invest, coming off the coast of Africa, is a couple weeks from becoming anything, if it does at all.
We have had a few storms, but nothing stronger than Category 2 Arthur in early July. Cristobal and Bertha were around for a long time, and Cristobal might ultimately be the most significant storm of this season. With that said, the current map seems to suggest that we will continue to avoid anything catastrophic for at least another couple of weeks, right when the Atlantic should be at its most dangerous.

South Bend, Indiana

Apologies for the late post, but today (tonight?) we head off to South Bend, IN to see what will be going on there for the weekend!

At 11:53pm EDT, the temperature at South Bend, IN was 53 degrees under overcast skies. A strong area of high pressure continues to take hold over the Central US bringing some very unseasonable cold air down from Canada. Early season cold weather records have been set in portions of the Northern/Central Plains, including the earliest inch of snow on record in Rapid City. Brrr! Temperatures around South Bend sure won’t feel like the end of summer as we head into the weekend, more like summer has ended and Fall wants to make an abrupt appearance. A mid-level disturbance that’s bringing the precip to the Plains will shift towards the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. A few light rain showers will be possible as we shift through the overnight hours tomorrow, but nothing significant should come from it. After the system’s departure Saturday morning, clouds will decrease as temperatures light back into the low 60s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, a late evening shower possible. High 62, Low 47.
Saturday: Showers trail off in early morning, then decreasing clouds. High 60, Low 50.

TWC: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 64, Low 47.
Saturday: Morning rain showers. High 62, Low 50.

AW: Friday: Rather cloudy and cool. High 63, Low 49.
Saturday: Clouds breaking and cool. High 62, Low 52.

NWS: Friday: Mostly cloudy. High 62, Low 47.
Saturday: Early morning rain showers, partly sunny in afternoon. High 62, Low 49.

WB: Friday: Mostly cloudy. High 62, Low 47.
Saturday: Partly cloudy, an early AM shower possible. High 62, Low 50.

WN: Friday: Mostly cloudy. High 63, Low 50.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with light rain showers likely. High 63, Low 52.

We see a system pushing into the Central Plains, bringing snows to the Denver area. High pressure should keep the area dry as we start to head into the weekend, but showers could hamper overnight plans to start Saturday.

BMGsat

Boomers in Bloomington

Tuesday was a fairly night day in Bloomington, as the area was between systems and weak high pressure kept things calm. Wednesday, however, was a lot more rambunctious as a front rolled through the area, bringing strong to severe thunderstorms to the region as well as slow-moving heavy thunderstorms. One of these dropped 3/4 of an inch of rain in the Bloomington area as the system worked through Wednesday night. Accuweather lived up to its name this time, nabbing the top spot.

Tuesday: High 79, Low 51.
Wednesday: 0.77″ in late evening thunderstorm. High 82, Low 63.
Forecast Grade: B

Palm Bay, Florida to Napa, California

This is a very long trip, taking us from the east coast of Florida all the way to the San Francisco Bay, but after trips too and from Anchorage last month, this is nothing. Since there is so much ground to cover, we will move at a relatively quick pace of 65.9mph, and the first 5 days will be through after 527 miles of driving with the final day being shorter than that. Let’s buckle up the kids and go tour the southern US of A.

DAY ONE (Thursday)
Palm Bay

We should get going before afternoon convection gets going in the Florida Peninsula, but there may be a stray rumble of thunder as we head north through Orlando, but much of north Florida will be dry. Muggy but dry. Ther ecould be an isolated storm along the coast again after we have turned west, but for the most part, I-10 will run well north of of the threat. Look out the driver’s side from Tallahassee westward and there could be a towering thunderhead. The better chance for rain will come as we approch Pensacola, where I-10 dips further to the south. We’ll make it into Alabama and the town of Robertsville by the end of the day, where they may be experiencing the last gasps of afternoon convection.

DAY TWO (Friday)
A combination of three things will make the Friday drive interesting. First is an area of instability over the western Gulf which will eject a good deal of moisture north into Louisiana. Second is a deep, digging trough full of cold air that is plunging all the way down into Texas as the weekend approaches, which will only enhance the thunderstorm threat over Louisiana and east Texas. Third is the fact that we will drive smack dab through the heart of Houston in a blinding rain storm complete with vivid lightning. YEEEEEEEHAW. Alabama and Mississippi will be fine, the rain will really pick up west of Lafayette and continue all the way to Brookshire, which is just west of Katy, one of the more notable Houston ‘burbs.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
The heavier showers and storms are going to continue to be pressed further south by the advancing mass of cool air, and as we head west, we will be entrenched in a cloudy, drizzly mess. This should last most of the day, though the threat for drizzle will really clear up after San Antonio. After San Antonio? Nothing. Not falling from the skies, not in terms of local population, nothing. West Texas is rather sparse. We will end the day in Balmorhea, which is west of Fort Stockton but still 200 some miles to New Mexico.

DAY FOUR (Sunday)
Model guidance suggests a lot of mooisture welling north into west TExas, thanks in large part to another tropical system in the Pacific, and the remnants of that thing in the Gulf. Expect some showers and storms to bubble up from Balmorhea to Van Horn, and then again around Las Cruces, New Mexico, but that activity will be confined to the higher terrain. The rest of the drive on Sunday will be through southern Arizona, which is not known for it’s rainfall. We will end in Marana, Arizona, which is just northwest of Tucson.

DAY FIVE (Monday)
Now is the easy forecasting part of the trip. I can say with confidence, even though we’re 5 days out, that I don’t think it will rain across the desert as we drive through it. The biggest issues will be traffic, as we clip Phoenix and Riverside. WE will begin the drive north by the end of Monday, and stop in Lebec, which is west of Lancaster, to end the day.

DAY 6 (Tuesday)
Nothing doing in the weather department again on Tuesday as we finish the trip to wine country. There was an earthquake in Napa last month. I would forecast for the earthquake outlook, but it’s impossible to predict those. Sorry. Besides, I’m a meteorologist, not a geologist.
Napa

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