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Enough already!

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Enough

There is a seemingly weak area of low pressure tearing its way through the Upper Midwest. There is a lot of spring time moisture within the low, and it is scooting through a trough that was already in place, which, unfortunately, means that the majority of the precipitation is coming as snow. This is a look at the next 12 hours, which call for 4-6 inches in some places, while a foot has already fallen near St. Cloud, Minnesota. It will be more of the same in the next 12 hour block, with a foot of snow possible when all is said and done across northern Wisconsin.
The good news, however, is that an upper level ridge will be building intoo the region next week, and a nice, springlike pattern will take over. 80 degrees isn’t out of the question.

Verification

Snow keeps coming in Eau Claire

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I will admit that snow didn’t last through the day as I had thought it would in Eau Claire on Monday. There was probably more accumulation than any of the competition expected after midnight, however, with an inch and a half falling between midnight and 5 AM. I guess I am proud to say that the snow did last longer than 2, like so many had said, but Weatherbug’s temperature forecast took them to the top of the leaderboard.
Actuals: Monday – 1.50 inches of snow, High 36, Low 23
Tuesday – Trace of snow, High 37, Low 21

Grade: C

Forecast

Athens, Georgia

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The Masters just wrapped up a couple days ago, just a couple of Bubba Watson length drives up the road from Athens. Weather during the Masters was gorgeous, will it be the same for the next couple of days in Athens?

At 2:51pm EDT, the temperature at Athens, GA was 60 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. The cold front that brought almost an inch of rain to the area yesterday and early this morning is shifting off to the east and is bringing most of the clouds in the area with it. Some lower clouds continuing to linger around the area this afternoon should lift out of here by early evening, with mainly clear skies expected tonight. Behind the cold front, high pressure is expected to shift over the area for the next couple of days, so quiet and dry weather is anticipated. Hooray! Bad news? Temperatures the next couple of mornings will be rather chilly, dipping down into the mid-30s. If they can brave a brisk start to the next couple of days, they’ll be alright.

Wednesday: Sunny. High 63, Low 33.
Thursday: Increasing afternoon clouds. High 66, Low 35.

TWC: Wednesday: Sunny. High 61, Low 34.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 37.

AW: Wednesday: Sunny, and pleasantly cool. High 63, Low 32.
Thursday: Partly sunny and pleasant. High 67, Low 36.

NWS: Wednesday: Sunny. High 60, Low 33.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 37.

WB: Wednesday: Sunny. High 60, Low 33.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 37.

WN: Wednesday: Sunny. High 61, Low 34.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 64, Low 37.

Here we see the strong cold front that brought significant rain to the region pushing off the East Coast. Quiet weather ahead!
AHNsat

Forecast

Longview, Washington

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Our day takes again to the Columbia Gorge. The attention has been across the central and eastern US for a while, so it’s time we check back in on the West Coast.

At 215PM, PT, Longview was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies. The Pacific Northwest was under a ridge, and surprisingly clear skies are being seen across the region. There is a band of clouds just off the coast, and some of them are filtering up the Columbia, but only so far as Astoria.
An upper level jet will begin to move into western Oregon as early as tomorrow morning, which will help a system generate a surface low on the lee of the Rockies. As flow becomes onshore, clouds will spill down the gorge, and some rain may be possible in Longview by evening. The jet’s arrival will mean a persistent westerly flow, which likely means overcast skies and a bit of drizzle through the day on Sunday as well.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, chance of late drizzle, High 59, Low 43
Wednesday – Overcast with some rain possible, High 59, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – PM Showers High 59, Low 44
Wednesday – Showers High 56, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler with a passing shower High 57, Low 42
Wednesday – Times of sun and clouds high 62, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, High 58, Low 45
Wednesday – A 20 percent chance of showers High 58, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning…then a chance of showers in the afternoon High 56, Low 43
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers High 57, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Scattered Showers High 57, Low 45
Wednesday – Isolated Showers High 57, Low 46

I love looking at satellite for the west coast, because clouds always show up so brilliantly. Check out the band off the Oregon coast right now.
Longview

Verification

A front stalls and temperatures skyrocket

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The forecast for eastern Iowa over the weekend was fairly consistent. A two pronged wave would lead to a stalling boundary in the area. Isolated clusters of thunderstorms were seen on Saturday, and then the boundary stalled, and the area was inundated with rain, measuring in inches. The only thing was that the stalled boundary on Saturday did so a little bit further to the northwest than anyone had anticipated. Even warmer air infiltrated the Iowa City area (highs reached 83), and meant that the heaviest stripe of rain shifted away from Mount Pleasant and more towards Des Moines and Ottumwa. Iowa City would have been in the heavy swath regardless, and they managed to see 2 inches on Sunday. It’s clear and cool now in Iowa City, where Victoria-Weather and the NWS had the top forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – .08 inches in rain/thunderstorms, High 83, Low 51
Sunday – 2.08 inches of rain, High 63, Low 44

Grade: C

Forecast

Eau Claire, Wisconsin

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Sorry for showing so late in the day like this, but I had a sports double header. As punishment, there is snow in the forecast for Eau Claire. That does sound fair.

At 1113PM, CT, Eau Clair was reporting a temperature of 33 degrees with snow. Low pressure parked over southeastern Iowa is forming a more typically cyclonic pattern as it emerges from the Rockies. Because of the depth of the parent trough, however, it is importing quite a bit of cold air from the north, and on the back end of the system, despite the heat found in the Ohio Valley, there is snow throughout southern Wisconsin. The band influencing Eau Claire at this hour extends southwest towards Albert Lea, Minnesota.
The low is expected to press northeast through the Great Lakes, which is bad news for Eau Claire, because it won’t lead to the entrainment of dryer air until late in the day tomorrow, so snow will be in the forecast into the evening. Fortunately, temperatures this time of year are warm enough that accumulations will be difficult. Tuesday will see the low shunted deep into Canada, and the sharp trough will take over. While the Canadian air will be dry, it will also likely bring the coldest temperatures of the month.
Tomorrow – Snow, heavy at times in the morning, mixing with rain around midday, then tapering off in the evening, High 38, Low 23
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 15

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy / Wind (Early snow) High 37, Low 25
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny high 41, Low 21

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and colder with clouds breaking for some sun (early snow) High 37, Low 25
Tuesday – Chilly with clouds and sunshine High 45, Low 14

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, (early snow) High 36, Low 25
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 39, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy.(early snow) High 36, Low 25
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 39, Low 19

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy (Early snow) High 36, Low 18
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny High 39, Low 18

I really do think snow will last a bit longer than our other forecast outlets anticipate.Check out the swath headed through Eau Clare right now. Some people have it over by 2AM! Not likely.
Eau Claire

Story

Some hail today, more significant severe weather tomorrow

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A trough is emerging from the Rocky Mountains this weekend, and looks to make life interesting for the central Plains. It is expected to develop a significant surface feature in two phases. Initially, the exit portion of the trough will move into the Upper Midwest, and work with the semipermanent lee trough to make it a little bit more intense than it would otherwise be. As the feature drifts towards the Great Lakes, it will flatten out and act as a stalled warm front, as is what the exit region of a jet typically does aloft, even if that’s not how it starts at the surface. As it phases into this type of feature, expect some thunderstorms to develop across Iowa. This is what the 12z NAM is spitting out for this afternoon:
Day1nam
The activity may be severe. There is quite a bit of warm air at the surface, and with the advancing trough, it could be a bit chilly aloft. This is a good recipe for thunderstorms, and the SPC is expecting some hail producers.
Iowa hail
This is pretty much what I expected yesterday in my Iowa City forecast, but the threat will be a bit further to the northwest.

The second phase of this trough will be when the base of the trough itself moves into the southern Plains. It will help the initial wave form into it’s stationary front status, but more importantly will bring helicity, cold air and organization to Tornado Alley. The trough will co-opt some of the lee trough as well, but the difference will be that it will maintain circulation and energy as it heads towards the Ozarks and begins to tap into the heat and humidity that will be streaming north towards the warm front. This is what the NAM looks like for tomorrow afternoon.
day2nam
The precipitation doesn’t look nearly as robust as the forecast does for tomorrow, but this makes sense as well. The cold air aloft will be much higher up, and it will take much greater forcing to generate thunderstorms. It simply won’t be as widespread as it will be today. That said, because it takes greater forcing for the storms to go up, they will likely be even stronger when they do develop. Further, the low being just off to the northwest will help create the atmospheric helicity and energy to allow for the chance for tornadoes. Again, the SPC outlook for tomorrow takes this into account, and has issued a moderate risk for thunderstorms in eastern Oklahoma for just this reason.
Okmdt
Be sure to follow along with the weather if you live anywhere from Iowa to Texas this weekend. It looks like there could be quite a bit going on.

Verification

A temperature spike, and then some rain

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If you were following along in the forum, you know that we were paying close attention to each successive model run as a cold front approached Charlottesville. With every run, the rain was brought further and further south, and the boundary got stronger and stronger. Not only was there enough energy to carry the rain over the Appalachians, but the southerly flow drew such warm air northward that the high temperature spiked at 81 degrees yesterday! While yes, it did rain a little bit, at least the temperatures were nice and toasty. Weatherbug and WeatherNation tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Thursday – High 72, Low 38
Friday – Trace of rain, High 81, Low 55

Grade: C

Schedule

The Week Ahead 4/13/14-4/19/14

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We’re back to a normal schedule next week. Neither of us are on vacation, and we have a solid stretch of forecasts on the horizon.
map

Sunday – Eau Claire, Wisconsin
Monday – Longview, Washington
Tuesday – Athens, Georgia
Thursday – Dubuque, Iowa
Friday – Lawrence, Kansas; Road Trip from Dubuque to Lawrence
Saturday – Road Trip from Lawrence to Evansville, Indiana

Road Trip

New Orleans, Louisiana to Iowa City, Iowa

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Back to back road trips for us. While the trek from New York to Louisiana will have to deal with some general rain showers, our journey north along the Mississippi will contend with some more sinister conditions. The drive is going to take almost two full days and cover 920 miles at a pace of 64.8mph, which means our first day’s mileage will be 518. Into the teeth of the tiger we go!

DAY ONE
New Orleans
Our charge upstream along Old Muddy will be warm and humid. Expect some very dense fog as we leave New Orleans, but otherwise fair conditions. A vast system organizing in the northern Plains will make our Sunday drive even more intimidating, but for Saturday, it will mean only an influx of summerlike air. The day will end in Kewanee, Missouri, which is just north of the Bootheel.

DAY TWO
Sunday is where the crap hits the fan. The cold front associated with this low will stretch from southern Iowa to northern Kansas, but an undercutting trough associated with the upper level low will light up fairly early in the day. We will dodge rain drops and embedded thunderstorms as soon as we start out, though the coverage won’t be comprehensive.. The strongest storms we encounter will be on the west and north side of St. Louis. When we get north of this line, we start moving into the stalled boundary over Iowa. Somewhere between Hannibal and the state line into Iowa, we will run into a wall of water. Not just rain for the rest of the trip to Iowa City, torrential, unrelenting rain. Areas like Mount Pleasant in southeastern Iowa will see maybe even 3 inches of rain. That reminds me. Maybe we should check our windshield wipers before we go.
iowa city

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