St. Louis, Missouri

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Night time forecasts are where the fun is!

At 1151PM, CT, St. Louis was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with clear skies. St. Louis was between two major systems tonight, with Hurricane Nicholas sliding along the Texas Coast to the south, and a fall like area of low pressure moving through the western Great Lakes overnight tonight. High pressure will keep St. Louis dry at least through the morning.
Nicholas will spiral eastward after landfalling, while the cold front from the northern feature will sink south. The boundary will pass through St. Louis late in the evening on Tuesday, with isolated thunderstorms continuing until after midnight. The full impact of this front will be blunted by Nicholas intercepting a lot of the moisture attempting to filter northward. Wednesday looks pretty OK after the morning showers clear out.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms in the evening, High 90, Low 72
Wednesday – Morning rain, then clearing, High 81, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then increasing clouds with some scattered thunderstorms later in the day. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 90, Low 70
Wednesday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 81, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm and humid with times of clouds and sunshine; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside (late storms) High 89, Low 71
Wednesday – Humid; cloudy in the morning, then intervals of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon (early storms) High 81, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, (late storms) High 90, Low 71
Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 82, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (Late storms), High 89, Low 71
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 90, Low 71
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 83, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the evening. High 91, Low 70
Wednesday – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 81, Low 65

It will be interesting to see how ardently this front moves through. There is definitely a change to the airmass late in the week for St. Louis, but there might not be as much of a show to get there as one might typically expect. You can see the peripheries of both features on satellite.

Missed by Mindy

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After expecting Mindy to drift a bit further north than she actually did, a lot of outlets ended up looking foolish on our forecast for Columbia, 6 of the 7 thought that the storm would pass close enough to central South Carolina that the state capital would get a bit, perhaps a substantial bit, of rain. Judging by storm reports, was only ever really a problem down by Tybee Island in Georgia, and Columbia didn’t actually get any rain. None. So Forecast.io who had no precipitation in the forecast got a share of the victory, but so too did Victoria-Weather, who despite the whiff on Mindy, accurately forecast the high and low on Friday. Even though forecasters were disappointed by their inaccuracy, I’m sure Columbia residents were just fine.
Actuals: Thursday – High 85, Low 67
Friday – High 84, Low 64

Grade: B – C

Jackson, Mississippi

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The weekend is almost through, and of course, there is more action in the Gulf of Mexico. Will it find it’s way towards Mississippi to begin this work week?

At 754PM, CT, Jackson was reporting a temperature of 76 degrees with fair skies. Dew points were high across the region, but wind should be strong enough that fog doesn’t settle in across the region overnight. The northern edge of the sphere of Nicholas’s influence is visibly over southern Mississippi, and the threat of showers and storms will return early tomorrow, when daily insolation gets started.
Model guidance is, at this moment, dangerously disparate. Some guidance drives the storm into southern Texas, and leaves Jackson unbothered. The preponderance of information out there has the storm bounce a bit to the east and hold together until landfall further north, near Houston. In this eventuality, heavy rain will arrive late on Tuesday. This seems like the most likely outcome, unfortunately, and rain, often heavy, will be kept in the forecast.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 84, Low 70
Tuesday – Increasing rain, heavy late, high 82, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. High 84, Low 71
Tuesday – Considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. High 82, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 84, Low 71
Tuesday – Cloudy and humid; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 84, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 71
Tuesday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – 40% chance of rain showers, High 82, Low 72
Tuesday – Slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 84, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 83, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 82, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and overcast throughout the day. High 83, Low 70
Tuesday – Rain in the evening. High 82, Low 70

It’s going to be interesting to see exactly where Nicholas wanders off to. There is even some speculation on it’s pace. Generally, there isn’t much certainty. You can see it’s outer reaches in southern Mississippi below.

Everyone knows it’s Mindy

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Mindy really took off on us. It looked like a fairly innocuous disturbance in the Gulf, but then over the course of a couple days, our forecasts in the area seemed to call for more and more rain. Tampa was clobbered by at least one big cell on Thursday, with a quarter inch of rain coming through, and rain falling on both days to end the workweek. Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service took the top forecast in Tampa, thanks to our belief that heat would still bleed through the storm clouds brought by Mindy.
Actuals: Thursday – .23 inches of rain, High 90, Low 79
Friday – .08 inches of rain, High 90, Low 75

Grade: B-C

Columbia, South Carolina to Redding, California

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It’s the weekend, baby! And our drive is going to cover a lot of country at what is really the right time of year to be taking such a journey. Temperatures are usually perfect for keeping the windows down, while you can stop and take in football games on the weekend, or baseball games in the week. This drive will take 5 days, so plenty of chances to stop, and will cover 2782 miles. It’s a hike, but we will break it up into 543 mile chunks at a pace of 67.8mph. Day 5 will be the longest, but it is also the stretch with the fewest roadside attractions.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Columbia, South Carolina

The eastern US needs to dry itself out, and it will get the chance on Saturday. High pressure is going to build across the southeastern US, at least at the surface. It’s strength will help guide Larry and Mindy northward, while temporarily preventing the development of more tropical activity in the Gulf. It’s not permanent, but it is going to last long enough. Expect now weather related impairment as we head from Columbia to Kuttawa in western Kentucky. It’s kind of a resort-y area, so hotels will be plentiful.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
Low pressure is sliding through the Great Lakes toward eastern Canada, and a nearly stationary front will be left in it’s wake. It will try to bubble up some isolated showers and storms along the Minnesota-Iowa border on Sunday afternoon, but the ridge to the south is just going to be too much. Expect instead warmer than normal temperatures along our route, which will end in Dunbar, Nebraska, which is in the southeastern corrner of the state.

DAY THREE (Monday)
Driving across Nebraska, at least to me, is fun. It’s really easy to figure out where you are, as the farmland leads to regularly intervals between towns, and you can move pretty quick, especially on a quiet day like Monday. There will be a spot of shower and thunderstorm activity late in the day though, as we approach the Wyoming border. Isolated thunderstorms will pop up in the front range, or until we are over Sherman Summit approximately. We’ll be on the other side of the high range and through Laramie to the Bath exit about 20 miles west of Laramie.

DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
Storm activity will pick up in the Plains on Tuesday, so nice work getting out of there when we did. Some late showers and storms will pop up in southern Wyoming, but they should hold until we are into Utah. It looks pretty stormy in the Colorado Rockies too, but that is neither here nor there. In this case, “there” is outside of Wells, Nevada, where we will suspend our journey for the night.

DAY FIVE (Wednesday)
Hopefully, the rain that moved through the northwest today helped to quench some of the fires in Northern California and Oregon, but I don’t have high hopes. Temperatures will be dry, and the sky will almost certainly be tinged an unsettling color as we pass through Sierras into northern California and settle into the northernmost Central Valley, to park our butts in Redding.

Redding, California

Redding, California

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As is definitely the case across the west, northern California continues to withstand one of the worst droughts the country has seen, perhaps since the Dust Bowl. The fire season has been particularly devastating just to the south of Redding in recent years. With that as a backdrop, lets hope for weather that is favorable to fire fighting efforts.

At 653AM, PT, Redding was reporting clear skies wit smoke and a temperature of 69 degrees. Dew points in the Central Valley were higher than most northern Californians are accustomed to, hanging out in the mid 60s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, thanks to a short waved low rotating through southern Oregon. Unfortunately, it looks backed by more energy than moisture, and as a result, red flag warnings are out for the northern California Sierras, as lightning may touch off more fires.
After the energetic bundle shifts out, the exit region of an upper level jet will remain in place along the Oregon/California border. High clouds will dot the skies of northern California, while cool, autumnal conditions will be just out of reach. Flow will be from the west, which will hopefully allow some smoke in the region to clear.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 62
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow -A mainly sunny sky. High 92, Low 65
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 95, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot; smoke from area fires will lead to poor air quality High 94, Low 62
Sunday – Sunshine and hot; possible danger of dehydration and heat stroke while doing strenuous activities High 97, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 93, Low 65
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 65
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 65
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow- Clear throughout the day. High 95, Low 70
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 97, Low 66

Here is the morning satellite imagery from Redding. It’s pretty cloudy to the north, and it’s tough to pick out individual smoke plumes. The smoke is there though.

Spots of drops

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We took a look at two Florida cities recently, and when we looked at Gainesville, Mindy wasn’t really much of a consideration. Fortunately for our forecast consideration, the eventual tropical storm skirted north of the University of Florida campus, instead leaving isolated showers and storms in the region. If I need to spell it out further, there were actually some outlets that didn’t have rain in the forecast on Monday, which was definitely enough to change the overall balance of the day. Forecast.io would have won, had they put rain in the forecast — again, a forecast near an emergent tropical storm — but instead, it’s Weatherbug with the victory.
Actuals: Monday -.01 inches of rain, High 89, Low 71
Tuesday – .01 inches of rain, High 86, Low 73

Grade: A-B

Columbia, South Carolina

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It’s a two forecast day here on September 8th. Let’s see if we can forecast better here than in Florida.

At 1056PM, ET, Columbia was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 72. A slow moving cold front lay across the South Carolina Upstate, and was inching southeastward. Showers and storms have mostly wound down for the night, but the boundary’s presence will not allow anyone to take more rain out of the forecast.
Tropical Storm Mindy sits over the northeastern Gulf, and will track toward the Carolinas by tomorrow afternoon, forecast to take a path south of Charleston, if it holds together as well as some guidance projects. Regardless of the storm’s strength tomorrow, there will be an increased threat of rain and storms with isolated tornadoes as circulation passes south of Columbia. On the positive side, the organization will help clear the region out more swiftly, and Friday looks like a dry day.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms. Tornadoes possible in the area, High 84, Low 70
Friday – Becoming sunny, High 84, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early then scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 81, Low 70
Friday – Partly cloudy skies. High 83, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers; humid High 83, Low 72
Friday – Beautiful with times of clouds and sun High 84, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 72
Friday – Sunny, High 86, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 82, Low 72
Friday – Sunny, High 82, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 84, Low 72
Friday -Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 70
Friday – Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 63

I feel pretty confident that there will be showers and storms in Columbia tomorrow, to some degree. It appears our computer overlords at Forecast.io disagree. Showers are winding down for the evening.

Tampa, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re headed to Florida for the second time in a row, and headed a bit closer to the ocean. Can you believe people live in cities that don’t touch the sea in Florida?

At 353PM, ET, Tampa was reporting a temperature of 93 degrees with mostly sunny skies. The interaction of three primary features will dictate the weather through the end of the work week in Tampa: Hurricane Larry in the north Atlantic, surface feature southwest of Tallahassee, and low pressure in eastern Canada. At this time Larry and the tropical low are helping steer much moisture away from Tampa, and south Florida is fairly clear this afternoon, aside from patchy clouds near the coasts.
Larry and the low in the Gulf will interact with the Canadian feature, which is presently dangling a cold front through the southeastern US. The boundary will tap into the moisture of the low, and increase the thunderstorm threat tomorrow in Tampa. Larry will stall the boundary over the Atlantic, and turn to be subsumed by the Canadian Low. This will cause the boundary to stall across Florida, but will also interrupt the length of the boundary. Forward momentum and shear will be lost, but some scattered showers and storms will still be able to tap into the sea breeze and local moisture on Friday.
Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, High 89, Low 78
Friday – Isolated storms, High 89, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 86, Low 78
Friday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 88, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a thunderstorm; breezy High 87, Low 78
Friday – Widely separated morning thunderstorms; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 89, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 88, Low 78
Friday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 89, Low 77

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 86, Low 78
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms High 88, Low 77

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 86, Low 76
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 89, Low 76

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 77
Friday – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 77

I think a lot o these forecasts are too cool for tomorrow. I don’t think it will be as rainy as many suspect, and it hit the 90s today. We shall see. Here is the local satellite, with low pressure in the northeast Gulf, and clouds ringing the peninsula.