A spritz before midnight

Dover was behaving so well for our forecast outlets, with temperatures holding in the low 80s for highs and low 60s for lows. Nearly everyone had a solid temperature forecast, but only two outlets, Accuweather and Forecast.io fore saw the light rain that scooted past the region late on Tuesday night. It was all tied to a fairly weak line of thunderstorms that got hung up along the coast. There were rainouts in New York City thanks to these immovable storms. Oeven though they mostly failed to infiltrate the Delmarva. Things will change a bit tomorrow.  Forecast.io had the second win in a row, barely edging the other damp forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – Rain reported not measured, High 80, Low 60
Monday – High 82, Low 61

Grade: B-C

A complete 180

Earlier in the spring, southeast Texas was battered over and over again by line after line of thunderstorms, leading to deadly flooding in Houston and surrounding metropolitan areas. Now, in June, there can be forecasts for thunderstorms for back to back days in Beaumont, and they only see reports of rain on one day, but no actual measured accumulation. The spell has been broken. This was the case way back last week on Tuesday and Wednesday where temperatures in the low 90s with dew points in the low 70s didn’t lead to thunderstorms. Forecast.io ended up with the top forecast for Beaumont last week.
Actuals: Tuesday – Rain reported, not measured. High 90, Low 74
Wednesday – High 92, Low 76

Grade: A-C

Denver, Colorado

There are some strong storm is erupting in the central High Plains this evening, will they be a problem for the Mile High City? Well, let’s investigate..

At 653PM, MT,, Denver was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with mostly sunny skies. There was a field of thunderstorms that started east of DIA and have now shifted into Kansas and Nebraska that was appearing brightly on satellite. There is still a tornado watch in effect for far northeastern Colorado as an offshoot of this activity, though it had mostly deteriorated around Denver. Expect a few isolated cells as the cap wears down as the night cools off. .
There is a brisk northwest flow over the Rockies, which is leading to the development of a lee trough in Colorado. A surface vorticity maximum will ripple through the Front Range of Wyoming towards the northern end of that lee wave, which will help to touch off thunderstorms in what will be a juicy environment. The surface low will be too close to the mountains for any of the unstable, juicy air to cycle south to Denver, rendering the area dry tomorrow until the cap weakens and breaks late in the evening.  After the surface feature moves away from the mountains on Wednesday, there will be an increase in surface upsloping around Denver. The prevailing northwesterly flow will mean a high shear environment, and while many of the storms will be high based, they will also have very tall tops, meaning vivid lightning and some gusty winds for Wednesday, even if rainfall is minimal at the back side of the surface low.
Tomorrow – Isolated late evening thunderstorms, High 94, Low 64
Wednesday – Thunderstorm activity weaker but more widespread, High 92, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray thunderstorm is possible. High 93, Low 61
Wednesday – 
Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 92, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 91, Low 58
Wednesday – Periods of clouds and sun with widely separated thunderstorms in the afternoon High 88, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 58
Wednesday – A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, High 88, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, A 10 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91, Low 63
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 88, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 93, Low 57
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 88, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. HIgh 92, Low 59
Wednesday –  Drizzle starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 91, Low 62

Here is the satellite, discussing those complexes headed towards Kansas as I was discussing, but since I started working on this, a couple of thunderstorms have popped up outside of town, including a severe cell east of Greeley. I should note one thing about the weather too: When you get air moving up hill, it gets HOT.

Denver

Jackson, Michigan

Hello, it’s Sunday night and time for an A+ forecast to finish off the weekend.

At 956PM, ET, Jackson was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. Most of the region was seeing clear skies and temperatures in the mid 70s. A cold front has recently passed through the region, and there is stratiform, post frontal rain across northwestern Ohio with slightly cooler air filling in across the Lower Peninsula. The dew points are still rather sultry, however.
The jet associated with the area of low pressure that produced the shower activity in the eastern Great Lakes today is still hanging out in the northern Great Lakes, and will be sinking south across the Jackson area late in the day tomorrow. This will produce some midlevel clouds, and be followed by the cooler and drier air that is still lacking.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 68
Tuesday – Clearer and more comfortable, High 76, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 89, Low 64
Tuesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 73, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Warm and less humid with plenty of sunshine High 87, Low 64
Tuesday – Cooler but pleasant with sunshine and patchy clouds High 74, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 90, Low 66
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 65
Tuesday – Cloudy until midday, then becoming partly sunny, High 71, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 90, Low 66
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny High 73, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Breezy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening, and partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 92, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 76, Low 56

It’s a weird situation, to have the rain move through and have to wait a full day for the refreshing air. Here is all te cold air already through the region.
Jackson

Just a summer day down south

Temperatures in south Georgia over the last couple of days in Georgia have been a bit warmer than is even normal for that part of the world. That means temperatures in Valdosta reached the mid to upper 90s on Friday and Saturday. I would say it was a good thing there was no rain, but frankly, why would anyone want to be outside anyways? Victoria-Weather and Accuweather tied for the top spot.
Actuals: Friday – High 94, Low 71
Saturday – High 97, Low 71

Grade: A-B

Dover, Delaware

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 61
Monday – Increasing clouds, High 83, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny. High 83, Low 62
Monday – Partly cloudy. High 83, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 81, Low 62
Monday – Humid with some sunshine giving way to clouds (PM storms) Hugh 74, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny High 84, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 81, Low 62
Monday – Mostly Sunny, High 82, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 81, Low 59
Monday – Partly Cloudy High 84, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy overnight. High 82, Low 61
Monday – Light rain overnight. High 83, Low 62

Pretty similar across the board. I hope you enjoy the shaky video stream

Flooding rains kill dozens in West Virginia

WV flooding

(image via Intellicast)

West Virginia is perhaps the most vulnerable state to flash flooding, thanks to the steep terrain covering the entire state, and its proximity to the East Coast, which couple to provide the heavy rain and unstable terrain.

This week has been active with thunderstorm activity riding along an oscillating boundary through the Ohio Valley. The training shower and thunderstorm activity has led to 10 inches of rain in many locations across the Mountaineer State. Rivers are spilling their banks and devastating the habitable land across the region.

The hardest hit part of the state was the southeastern corner of the state, where the deaths have occurred. More than half of the deaths happened in Greenbriar County, along the Virginia border, which is one of the most steeply terrained counties in the state.

Accuweather has a recap of all the damage across the state, including some incredible videos, and a story about residents stranded at a shopping center near Charleston

Topeka, Kansas to Miami, Florida

Today we embark on a road trip that starts off almost as far away from the ocean as you can get… to one of the most vibrant coastal cities in the USA. It’s 1,525 miles between Topeka and Miami and will take 3 days to cover the distance. We’re coming for you 305!

Topeka

DAY ONE

A storm system shifting into the Plains will be bringing some tumultous weather to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest tomorrow. Meanwhile, further south, we depart Topeka heading east to fairly benign conditions. There could be a few afternoon showers or an isolated thunderstorm as we passs Columbia and eventually through St. Louis, but activity should be minimal. We’ll continue towards the south and end the day in Paducah, KY.

DAY TWO

The cold front pushing through the Central US will draw closer throughout the night, but once again, we’ll be continuing our trip southeastward before it really has a chance to catch up at all. The morning hours should be quiet as we drive into TN and through Nashville, continuing towards Chattanooga in the early afternoon. A few scattered thunderstorms could greet us as we make our way through GA, but shouldn’t be anything more than normal daytime pop up thunderstorms in the area. So while we might run into a couple of them, nothing that should totally slow our trip through Atlanta and eventually into Perry, GA for the night.

DAY THREE

There could be some lingering activity when we wake up for our final leg in this journey, as plenty of moisture being pumped into the Southeast ahead of that front will put plenty of juice for cells that linger through the night. Good news is that they should mostly die off fairly quickly after sunrise. However, as we cross into Florida, widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated over the Sunshine state. Luckily for us, the general flow should push most of it towards the western half of the state, clearing things out a bit as we push through Orlando and eventually into our destination of Miami.

Miami

Topeka, Kansas

Some tumultuous weather has hit the Midwest and Eastern US last couple of days, so let’s direct our attention to the nation’s heartland and see what’s happening in Topeka!

At 753pm CDT, the temperature at Topeka, KS was 82 degrees under fair skies. Tail end of a frontal boundary is found lingering over the Central Plains, which is the focus of some thunderstorm clusters not terrible far southeast of Topeka. Luckily these are sliding away to the east and shouldn’t affect them for the rest of tonight. However, there are some thunderstorms found over eastern CO which could continue pushing into KS and linger throughout the overnight hours. They should dissipate some during the morning hours, but the threat does exist for a couple of these to possibly make it all the way into the area by late morning. If they die out before reaching the city, then the rest of the day should be okay. Friday night into Saturday looks to be quiet, then a cold front approaches from the northeast for Saturday night. Most of the activity should wait until early Sunday morning to move into the region, but a couple stray cells could affect the area before the clock hits midnight.

Friday: Few scattered late-morning thunderstorms possible. High 90, Low 70.
Saturday: Late evening thunderstorms possible. High 93, Low 74.

TWC: Friday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 93, Low 72.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 96, Low 76.

AW: Friday: Partly sunny, an afternoon thunderstorm. High 91, Low 70.
Saturday: An afternoon thunderstorm in spots. High 93, Low 75.

NWS: Friday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 93, Low 71.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, chance of late evening thunderstorms. High 95, Low 75.

WB: Friday: 50% chance of storms. High 90, Low 75.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, chance of evening storms. High 94, Low 77.

WN: Friday: Partly cloudy with isolated storms. High 93, Low 72.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 95, Low 75.

FIO: Friday: Light rain until afternoon. High 93, Low 71.
Saturday: Rain in late evening hours. High 96, Low 75.

A cluster of thunderstorms is on their way out, shifting eastwards over MO/AR. The dry conditions won’t last terrible long as unsettled weather will shift back in during the weekend.

TOPrad

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