Forecast

Boise, Idaho

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Boise is a tough town to forecast for, as they all are in the mountains. It’s isolation in southwestern Idaho only makes it tougher, because there isn’t really a good comparable town. Let’s see what’s going on.

At 1053PM, MT, Boise was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures remained warm throughout the Sun Valley even at this late hour, with dew points into the mid 50s as near by as Caldwell. Clear skies and dew points that warm indicate a chance for some fog early tomorrow morning.
A weak upper level trough is moving through the northern Rockies, and while it won’t bring much change to Boise, it will bring a little. There will be some isolated thunderstorms in the higher terrain northeast of Boise, which will add some isolated clouds to the picture. In the wake of more robust, widespread thunderstorms earlier in the week, things will dry out, and the added sunshine will lead to very warm temperatures, with a shot at 100 on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 68
Saturday – High 100, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 98, Low 67
Saturday – Sunny skies. High 100, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny and Hot, High 98, Low 66
Saturday – Mostly sunny and hot, High 100, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot High 95, Low 59
Saturday – Sunny and hot High 97, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 96, Low 66
Saturday – Sunny, High 98, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 95, Low 63
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 97, Low 68
Saturday – Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 103, Low 68

Man, that’s hot. There are only two of us calling for triple digits though. Look how empty satellite is.

Road Trip

Longview, Texas to Pueblo, Colorado

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Our trip today will take us through the dustiest part of the Plains, from north Texas to eastern Colorado. It will be a day and a half from Longview to Pueblo, covering 808 miles. The first day, as always, will be a full day, at a pace of 63.6mph, which means we will be 509 miles into the trip when we call it a day. If only there was a freeway around here.


DAY ONE (Friday)

We are starting at the very easternmost part of the state of Texas, and we won’t leave it. We’ll make it through Dallas-Fort Worth, Wichita Falls and barely pass by Amarillo before the day is over. Most of north Texas will be dry, but the tail of a cold front will touch off some thunderstorms over the Texas Panhandle. Low pressure is going to develop in the Mid-Atlantic, with a strong cold front emerging from east to west from Tennessee to the Panhandle. The Panhandle will be at the tail of the front, so rain and thunder won’t be widespread but this being the Texas Panhandle, whatever does develop could be jumbo sized. The chance we get clipped by one is fairly low, though, maybe 10-20%, and even then, likely when we have stopped in Bishop Hills, on the outskirts of Amarillo.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
There will be a pair of features threatening our route on Saturday morning. There will be lingering thunderstorms at the tail end of that cold front, while a wave moving through the Rockies will generate clusters of storms in the in the higher terrain, aided by monsoonal flow. We will have a corridor, however, through the Panhandles and southeastern Colorado. Some clouds with an isolated shower may peek over the Rockies and bring some afternoon showers to Pueblo, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Verification

Fernanda brings things down on Oahu

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For vacationers in Honolulu, the nearby passage of Fernanda likely didn’t ruin anyone’s time there, but it certainly did affect the weather. Aside from the waves on the North Shore, there were also morning spots of drizzle in Honolulu, and a high temperature that only managed to reach 83 on Monday afternoon, several degrees off of what is typical. While many of us wish we could spend some time in Hawai’i, the NWS actually does have forecasters there, and they clearly know what they are doing, scoring a fairly easy victory.
Actuals: Monday – Trace of rain, High 83, Low 75
Tuesday – Trace of rain, High 88, Low 76

Grade: A-C

Road Trip

Couer d’Alene, Idaho to Minneapolis, Minnesota

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We’re on the go again tonight! From far northern Idaho here to VW headquarters, it’ll take 1,346 miles to cover the journey. What kind of weather will we see from the Rockies through the Plains? Let’s explore!

DAY ONE

High pressure is found over southern Alberta building down over portions of the Northern Rockies and ND, keeping the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity over far southern Montana and into Wyoming. A fairly quiet start to the day is expected as we head eastward out of Couer d’Alene and past Missoula and Butte. Some spotty shower activity is possible once we get to Bozeman, but anything of substance should remain off to the south as we finish the day in Billings.

DAY TWO

High pressure continues to build down over the far northern US, encompassing eastern Montana and North Dakota. This should make for a pretty quiet and sun-filled drive along I-94 as we trek from Billings past Miles city and into ND. We eventually finish our day in Bismarck.

DAY THREE

It’s going to sound like a broken record, but that’s a good thing in this case! Our friendly high pressure system continues keeping us shielded as we finish our tour of I-94 today. Sunny skies will continue to greet us as we push through Jamestown and Fargo into Minnesota. Alexandria and St. Cloud make for good afternoon pit stop locations before we pull into Minneapolis!

Forecast

Minneapolis, Minnesota

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Alright, a forecast for Victoria Weather’s backyard! Certainly we have home-field advantage for this challenge, right? Right?!

At 753pm CDT, the temperature at Minneapolis, MN was 75 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A vort max is swinging through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest tonight, which is kicking up an area of rain and embedded thunderstorms over eastern SD into western MN. This area could bring us some rain showers during the morning hours as it pushes on through, but the main focus will be during the evening. A cold front pushing into the Dakotas currently will stall out a bit over Central MN into SD tomorrow evening, becoming the focus of another round of possible strong overnight thunderstorms (we’ve had a lot of them recently). Activity continues into Wednesday as a weak low pressure area found along the tail end of this front saunters through the Upper Midwest, keeping the region unstable. The rest of the week looks pretty quiet around here, but unfortunately we have to get through a couple volatile days first.

Tuesday: chance of morning showers, better chance of late evening thunderstorms. High 83, Low 65.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms persist from overnight, regenerate during morning, clears out by late evening. High 82, Low 70.

TWC: Tuesday: AM thunderstorms. High 88, Low 66.
Wednesday: Thundershowers. High 83, Low 73.

AW: Tuesday: Partly sunny and humid, spotty morning thunderstorm. High 86, Low 65.
Wednesday: A couple of thunderstorms. High 78, Low 71.

NWS: Tuesday: Showers likely, then sunny. High 87, Low 71.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms likely. High 81, Low 70.

WB: Tuesday: Partly cloudy, 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms in morning. High 87, Low 65.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning then partly cloudy with chance of storms in afternoon. High 77, Low 71.

WN: Tuesday: Partly cloudy with numerous light showers. High 84, Low 64.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. High 81, Low 70.

FIO: Tuesday: Light rain in the morning and evening. High 90, Low 69.
Wednesday: Heavy rain until evening. High 82, Low 72.

Here we see some rain with some embedded thunderstorms shifting in from the west. There will be a lot more where that came from over the next 36 hours before things get quiet afterwards.

Verification

Thunderstorms Wreak Havoc

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Sometimes we prefer to forecast for a squall line event, because it’s much easier to forecast when a wall of water is coming at you. Forecasts, like the one for Champaign this last weekend, can be harrowing because only isolated activity is expected to pop up and when it hits you both days, it gets aggravating. That’s exactly what happened, as the tail end of a small thunderstorm cluster swung through Sunday evening. Low temps were lower than expected too because of the precip, causing forecasts to not quite pan out. NWS edged out VW for the win, but nobody had reason to celebrate.

Saturday: 0.16″ of rain in morning shower. High 89, Low 70.
Sunday: 0.09″ of rain in evening thunderstorm. High 88, Low 68.
Forecast Grade: C-D

Forecast

Champaign, Illinois

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It’s been quite the last couple of days over the Midwest, as round after round of severe weather and flooding rains have hit the region from MN to IN. Home of the University of Illinois, let’s see how Champaign, IL will fare this this weekend!

At 1053pm CDT, the temperature in Champaign, IL was 80 degrees under fair skies. A stationary boundary has been camped out over northern IL for the last couple of days and been the focus of severe weather along with flooding rains. That tends to happen a lot in the summer months here from the Northern Plains through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region, stationary boundaries camp out and the abundant summer moisture becomes fuel for these typical nocturnal complexes. One is currently setup from NW Iowa through IL into northern IN and luckily for Champaign, they’re staying off to the north. For the most part, they should do that through the remainder of the overnight hours into Saturday morning, though i wouldn’t rule out a few stray cells making their way over the area before clearing out for the mid to late morning hours. There’s a chance of some evening activity flaring up as the boundary sags southward a bit, but the bulk of activity should still remain off to the north and east. Sunday sees a weak low pressure area swing through the Great Lakes, but most of the activity should remain off to the north and not bother the fine people of Champaign.

Saturday: Isolated morning storms, increasing chance of late evening showers/storms. High 93, Low 76.
Sunday: Decreasing clouds throughout the day. High 89, Low 71.

TWC: Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy. A stray severe thunderstorm is possible. High 96, Low 77.
Sunday: Considerable clouds early, then lessening. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 92, Low 72.

AW: Saturday: Some sun, a t-storm in spots. High 95, Low 77.
Sunday: Clouds and sun, hot and humid. High 90, Low 73.

NWS: Saturday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 94, Low 76.
Sunday: Slight chance of early morning thunderstorm, then partly sunny. High 89, Low 73.

WB: Saturday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 92, Low 78.
Sunday: Partly sunny. High 89, Low 74.

WN: Saturday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. High 93, Low 75.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High 90, Low 73.

FIO: Saturday: Light rain until morning, starting again in the evening. High 94, Low 78.
Sunday: Partly cloudy until night. High 89, Low 72.

A band of potent thunderstorms is found over Northern IL into Northern IN, with the bulk of the severe activity remaining off to the north. They’ll be under the gun for another day in regards to this activity, but should finally catch a break to finish off the weekend.

Road Trip

Prescott, Arizona to Couer d’Alene, Idaho

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Today we embark on a 1,300-mile road trip, from central Arizona northwards to far northern Idaho. Not very often we take a road trip through the Rockies that goes south-north! Let’s see what the next few days have in store for the Western US!

DAY ONE

Monsoon season is in full-swing over the Southwest US, with plentiful afternoon thunderstorms popping off over the mountain ranges throughout Arizona and southern Utah. Dry weather should greet us to start the day as we head out of Prescott and persist throughout much of northern Arizona. By early afternoon, as we make our way through southwestern Utah, we’ll have to start dodging some scattered cells that develop as we make our way along Hwy 89 and eventually to I-15, but the worst of the activity will be behind us over northern AZ. We might encounter a couple brief thunderstorms as we trek along I-15 in Utah before we finish our long day in Nephi, Utah.

DAY TWO

It will be another day of mostly due north driving all along I-15. There’s a weak boundary looking to push through MT into northern WY throughout the day, and with enhanced monsoonal moisture lifting through the Four Corners region today, we could see some widely scattered activity already festering around the Nephi area when we depart in the morning. It looks more like shower activity as opposed to constant thunderstorms, so not terribly much for us to worry about as we pass by Provo and eventually Salt Lake City. There could be a few scattered showers for us to negotiate through as we make our way into Idaho and eventually by Pocatello and Idaho Falls. North of there, dry weather should be expected the rest of the way as we head into Montana and finish the day in Butte.

DAY THREE

Today will be a short day and it’s just a couple hundred miles more to our destination, and with high pressure moving in over the Northern Rockies, our day should be stress-free! Weather-wise anyways.

Forecast

Honolulu, Hawai’i

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It’s not often we get this far away from home, but indeed, we are headed for the Islands for our forecast today. How different is life in Honolulu in the middle of the summer?

At 453 AM, Hawaiian time, Honolulu was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 75 degrees. The western islands were generally reporting overcast skies as a overnight band of showers shifted into the open Pacific, while areas exposed to the trades were generally a few degrees warmer. Northern exposures of all of the Hawaiian islands were under high surf advisories, as the remnants of Ferrnanda drifted east and north of the chain.
Fernanda will skirt the northern end of the islands through the early morning hours on Monday, elevating the surf on the north sides of the islands, while also bringing clouds and a chance of showers. The rain and thunder in the interior mountains of Oahu will continue through the early afternoon, with the sun returning without interference by evening. Tropical features are lining up in the eastern Pacific, but high pressure will stamp out any advance on the islands, while the storms will sap any moisture from the trades. Tuesday will be another great day in Hawai’i
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers and storms,HIgh 88, Low 76
Tuesday – Sunny and wonderful, High 90, low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 86, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies High 86, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sun with a couple of soaking showers; watch for rough surf and rip currents High 88, Low 76
Tuesday – Partly sunny; a shower or two in the morning followed by a shower in spots in the afternoon High 88, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Partly sunny, High 86, Low 75
Tomorrow- Isolated showers. Mostly sunny High 88, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. High 79, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning then scattered showers in the afternoon. High 81, Low 78

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 86, Low 75
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 90, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the morning and afternoon. High 85, Low 75
Tuesday – Partly cloudy until morning and breezy starting in the evening, continuing until night. High 85, Low 74

It blows my mind that we are so all over on this forecast! Very interesting, and it will be important to see how those mountains on the interior of Oahu affect everything on the southern shores.  Here is the satellite, showing a wave shifting out of the picture.

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