Greeley, Colorado

While the Northeast and New England continues to get pounded by nor’easter after nor’easter, things have been relatively quiet here in the Central US. Will that pattern continue or will things shake up a bit as we head into St. Patrick’s Day?

At 956pm MDT, the temperature at Greeley, CO was 36 degrees. An area of low pressure is shifting out of CO into KS, kicking up an area of rain and snow on the western side of it. Greeley is seeing rain at the moment but is expected to change over to a rain/snow mix or all snow briefly before the low continues to pull far enough away and the precip trails off over the area. As the low continues shifting towards the Mid-MS River Valley, clouds will decrease throughout the day and winds will pick up as well. By the late afternoon, it should be a fairly decent day, minus the gusty winds of course. As we roll into St. Patrick’s Day, the Greeley area looks to be between systems, so warmer temperatures and mostly clear skies are expected! If there’s any limitations to the festivities you have for the day, looks like the weather won’t be one of them!

Friday: Frozen mix in morning, clouds decreasing throughout the day and breezy. High 58, Low 33.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 62, Low 23.

TWC: Friday: Morning rain, then partly cloudy and windy. High 58, Low 34.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 63, Low 24.

AW: Friday: A bit of rain and snow early, then decreasing clouds and breezy. High 58, Low 37.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 64, Low 25.

NWS: Friday: Some rain/snow showers early, then decreasing clouds and breezy. High 58, Low 33.
Saturday: Sunny. High 65, Low 26.

WB: Friday: Early morning frozen mix, then mostly sunny by afternoon. High 57, Low 34.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 64, Low 26.

Saturday: NONE GIVEN

FIO: Friday: Morning sleet, then partly cloudy by midday. High 52, Low 35.
Saturday: Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 58, Low 28.

Some rain/snow mixed shower are pushing off to the east currently. This activity should trail off during the early morning hours, making way for a pretty decent start of the weekend.

The Northeast is in the crosshairs again

New England has been battered in the last month or so by two massive Nor’Easters and the forecast is for another big storm coming mid week next week. Why has it been so relentless this winter?

This winter has been dominated by a long waved pattern. Frequency is lower if waves are longer, which is to say that the pattern slows way down when waves are longer. The wave in reference here is the upper level jet stream, which is analyzed here:

There is a lot of action on this map, which might make one believe that the pattern should be much more active, and there are indeed a few areas to watch (The Rockies, and the lower Mississippi Valley, for example) in the next couple of days, before we return our attention to New England.

The problem is that pink, stronger jet streak running from the Great Lakes to the north Atlantic. That is tied to a broader trough that is more easily identified when you look from the North Pole.

Here, you can see the north to south jet off the west coast. Over time, the jet streaks over the North American continent have or will continue to dissipate, leaving a broad trough over the US, with a strong exit region along the East Coast, wherein the exit region is the most conducive for cyclonic development.

Compounding things is a strengthening ridge in the north Atlantic, which will threaten to maintain the wave over North America for even longer. This is a summer or winter like pattern, but as we head towards spring, the differential heating across the planet will ease this logjam, and New England will start to come up for air.

Santa Barbara endures perfect weather.

A week after unseasonably cold weather brought snow to the mountains north of town, and a few months after the region was threatened by wildfires, Santa Barbara was confronted by annother weather phenomenon: The reason nobody ever wants to leave. Not only did the sun shine on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the high temperatures were near 70 in the afternoon, and a terrifically sleepable low 40s overnight. The was even a picturesque morning fog on Wednesday to complete the scene. Victoria – Weather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 74, Low 37
Wednesday – High 69, Low 41

Grade: B-F

Weather Wayback…. Better days

I won’t linger on this verification for too long. We’re looking at the end of August in Bridgeport, Connecticut, which has been raked over the coals in the last few days, getting blasted by back to back nor’Easters dropping snow and brining damaging winds to the region. Back in August, Bridgeport had the kind of weather that keeps people living in Connecticut. Highs were in the mid 70s with sunny skies for two days in a row. Hard to take exception with that. The forecasts were a lot more accurate with the docile weather too, with The WeatherChannel only ending up with 2 degrees of error for the period.

Actuals: Sunday August 27th – High 75, Low 58
Monday – August 28th, High 74, Low 59

Grade: A-B

Forecaster of the Month: February

February is the shortest month of the year, and it was just as action packed as it always is. I mean, not as active as March has begun, but there were some big snows, especially in the upper Midwest, and some severe weather down in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. They weren’t the headliners that the recent Nor’Easters have been, mostly because of where the nasty weather occurred, but it all provided its own forecasting challenges. In the end, it was Victoria-Weather that was able to overcome those challenges and win the monthly title

Billings, Montana to Little Rock, Arkansas

Today we kick off a 3-day road trip from Billings to Little Rock. We’re going to be visiting a lot of the Great Plains during this trip, will Mother Nature make it an easy southward jaunt? Let’s find out!


High pressure is found extending from the Northern High Plains southward all the way into the Southern Plains. This is gonna keep skies clear from our departure out of Billings down I-90 into northeast WY, then continue south on I-25 past Casper and Cheyenne before finishing the day in Ft. Collins, CO.


Today we leave the scenic foothills of the Rockies and head Eastward on I-70 out of Denver into Kansas. Continued high pressure over the Central Plains will keep skies clear for another day, making for easy driving when we finish the night in Salina, KS.


High pressure shifts off to the east as an area of low pressure attempts to get established over the Central Plains. It’ll be a dry start to the day, although clouds move into southern KS and Oklahoma overnight as southerly flow returns to the region. Clouds will break up some as we head past Tulsa towards Ft. Smith. Some late evening showers could pop up over southern Missouri/far northern Arkansas, but should remain off to the north of our route as we pull into Little Rock for the evening!

Little Rock, Arkansas

Today we head off south to the capital of Arkansas. Given the repeat pounding the Northeast is about to endure, will the Southern Plains be on the quiet side of things?

At 953pm CST, the temperature at Little Rock, AR is 46 degrees under fair skies and breezy winds. High pressure is building into the region behind a strong storm system shifting into the Northeast. Skies cleared out today and look to remain so over the next couple days, but temperatures will be a bit cooler than they have been lately. Some morning chill is expected as lows will be around freezing, but warm into the mid to upper 50s. Overall, not a bad couple of days in store!

Wednesday: Sunny but cooler. High 55, Low 34.
Thursday: Sunny and a bit warmer. High 58, Low 31.

TWC: Wednesday: Sunny. High 53, Low 32.
Thursday: Sunny. High 58, Low 32.

AW: Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cooler. High 52, Low 32.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 57, Low 32.

NWS: Wednesday: Sunny. High 53, Low 33.
Thursday: Sunny. High 58, Low 33.

WB: Wednesday: Sunny. High 51, Low 34.
Thursday: Sunny. High 56, Low 33.

WN: Wednesday: Sunny. High 54, Low 34.
Thursday: Sunny. High 58, Low 32.

FIO: Wednesday: Clear throughout the day. High 53, Low 34.
Thursday: Clear throughout the day. High 59, Low 35.

Clear skies are found over much of the state, with a deck of stratus clouds over Missouri kicking out some flurry activity. A couple pleasant days ahead!

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