from Victoria-Weather
6:15PM
Pass.
11:24PM: The coming cold front for Tallahassee is indeed producing a band of showers off the coast of Destin into the Gulf, but nothing on shore. Victoria-Weather had rain in the forecast, but it’s looking to stay offshore. Good news, Tallahassee!
11:58PM: Maaaaaybe a little something in Panama City, now?
Tallahassee is in the process of recovering from Isaias, which brought torrential rains just to the west of the state capital.
At 853PM, ET, Tallahassee was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. An area of high pressure lay over the Florida Peninsula, but a deep digging autumnal trough over the Mississippi Valley is going to start churning up some southerly flow across the Gulf.
The boundary associated with the trough will arrive overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Far removed from the circulation of the surface flow, and coming after daylight, it will not bring much if any precipitation with it, but it will bring a taste of much cooler air to the Florida Panhandle to kick off the weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, clouds late, High 89, Low 65
Saturday – Clouds early, with some predawn drizzle, High 73, Low 54
TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. Hot. High 89, Low 64
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. Much cooler. High 74, Low 59
AW: Tomorrow – Warm with plenty of sunshine High 88, Low 60
Saturday – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, less humid with plenty of sunshine High 75, Low 60
NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny High 89, Low 66
Saturday – Sunny, High 73, Low 60
WB: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning. Sunny. High 87, Low 67
Saturday – Sunny. Much cooler. High 74, Low 61
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 66
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 62
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 89, Low 64
Saturday – Sunny, High 74, Low 58
I’m the only one who has rain in the forecast, but we all see a big change coming to the weather in Tallahassee. You can see the band of clouds through the center of the country, separating winter and summer.
Our forecast in Allentown oversaw clearing skies and a warmup, with high temperatures from Sunday the 4th climbing 7 degrees to Monday’s high. This coincided with more sunshine, and evacuation of the light showers they had in town. There was one consistency, however, in that The Weather Channel continued their hold on forecasting supremacy that guided them through September.
Actuals: Sunday October 4th, .01 inches of rain, High 61, Low 54
Monday, October 5th, High 68, Low 50
Grade: A
2:59PM: It was busy for a minute, but the tropics are once again quiet. Right now, most outlets are beginning to worry about autumnal, if not early winter type events. If not, it’s because they are sharing the El Nino climatology, which insists on warmer temperatures in the northeast US this winter.
After a lull in the late summer, The Weather Channel came storming back in September. They were the top outlet in 60% of the forecasts for the month, and manhandled the competition. They have a commanding lead in the forecast wins, but when they’ve been bad, they were really bad, so there is a lot to play for this year. If TWC keeps forecasting like they did in September, they will be hard to catch!
| Outlet | Forecast Wins (year) |
| The Weather Channel | 8.5 |
| Accuweather | 5.66 |
| Victoria-Weather | 4.33 |
| WeatherNation | 3.66 |
| Clime | 3.66 |
| National Weather Service | 2.83 |
| Weatherbug | 0.33 |
Before Isaias grabbed headlines in Florida, we were eying Polo in the eastern Pacific. The storm was projected to slide into the Southwest and pump moisture into the southern Plains. A couple of outlets thought the threat was great enough to include rain throughout the forecast for Sherman. Instead, one of the outlets, The Weather Channel, who kept the forecast dry on the 29th, put together a nearly perfect forecast and won the last forecast of September.
Actuals: September 28th, .01″ of rain, High 90, Low 70
September 29th, High 93, Low 73
Grade: A
1:23PM
Fall storm systems are just dreary. Cold and rainy, without the strong thunderstorms or stacking of snow. Just unpleasant. Sorry that this is coming.
8:30PM
Flooding rains to the east, thanks to Isaias, the pending rain storm to the north this weekend, and yet, Arkansas is going to be looking at a fire risk over the next couple of days. The weather, at times, is on a razor’s edge.
9:25PM: This is the kind of storm that rolls in right at bed time on a school night. I don’t see any storm reports yet, despite the move through the Kansas City metro, so let’s hope the only impact is drowsy elementary schoolers tomorrow morning.
9:34PM: Isaias came and went. Two deaths were attributed to his wrath, but a Category 2 hurricane is otherwise light work for local residents. He’s going to continue to harangue the East Coast for a couple of days, and will probably get his name retired, even though it’s not going to go down as a storm that everyone remembers.
1059PM: Obviously Isaias was the big show in town this weekend, but we should also take note of the potential for flash flooding almost immediately thereafter in the Las Vegas area.
Well, it’s here. Hurricane Isaias is on the doorstep of the Florida Panhandle, and will make landfall this afternoon to early evening.
Presently, Isaias is a Category 3 hurricane, which is what I anticipated, but it is also taking a bit deeper channel in towards landfall, which at this point appears to be just east of Fort Walton Beach.
While surge is going to be an immediate problem along the coast, within the next few hours, the threat for high wind and a few tornadoes will be pronounced in places like Panama City and Tallahassee. Fortunately, Isaias is moving steadily, and while there is a threat for flash flooding, it is not as severe as we have seen with storms in recent years.
Isaias will march through Alabama tomorrow, which has brought some speculation about the viability of the college football game in Tuscaloosa. It should start drying out fairly early, and football is important at the University of Alabama, so expect it will be a miserable game on.
Isaias is major hurricane and will certainly cause problems in the Panhandle, but it is not as strong as Matthew, the most recent strong hurricane to hit the area, and is not going to dawdle in the high terrain, like Helene. Any landfalling hurricane is notable, and it is particularly notable this year, as it is the first hurricane of any kind in the Atlantic. It only takes one!
Be safe out there.