Corvallis, Oregon to Mansfield, Ohio

4 1/2 days is what it will take to get from Corvallis to Mansfield, from western Oregon to northeastern Ohio. I wonder how many O – State to O – State trips we’ve done before? Anyway, the mileage is 2437, which means an average speed of about 67.7 mph. Solid. Days 1-4 will be through after about 541.6 miles. Another success of the Google Maps light speed system.

DAY ONE (Thursday)
Great news for everyone traveling out west: It’s going to be very quiet out west with a vast upper level ridge covering the region. All the monsoonal thunderstorm activity will continue to lie over the southern Rockies, for the beginning of the trip, mostly across Oregon but finishing off in Warren, Idaho (near Twin Falls), Thursday evening. Enjoy the scenery, because this drive should be pretty easy, but fairly gorgeous.

DAY TWO (Friday)
High pressure will move east with us. The only trough, and therefore the only threat for inclement weather between the coasts is a weak lee trough. We won’t travel far enough to reach that feature, which will only be an analytical curiosity anyway, and won’t be producing any tangible weather. The day will end in Arlington, Wyoming, which is west of Laramie.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
High pressure is developing strongly over the region and will squelch any threat of a trough emerging in the lee. If you have some sweet tunes, driving through Nebraska when the weather is good is a great time to listen to them. We will just past Lincoln and end up in Waverly, Nebraska.

DAY FOUR (Sunday)
A cold front swinging down out of the Upper Midwest, associated with a strong area of low pressure moving through Canada. A wave near the Bahamas will nip any moisture in the bud, though. We may feel a brisk northwest wind by the end of our day, which will finish in Valparaiso, Indiana, as we get off the interstates and prepare to finish the drive on US Highways.

DAY FIVE (Monday)
There may be a little bit of pooling moisture through the morning and early afternoon across most of the remainder of our route as the cold front slows down. Not a lot of rain or anything, and much of it may manifest as fog instead of rain. There will be a few spits of drizzle, but not a lot, as I said, with the best chances around Fort Wayne. We should reach Mansfield in the early afternoon.

Mansfield, Ohio

It’s time for a forecast for the Great Lakes. We should be seeing some crisp, autumn days, but how crisp, and how autumnal will it be?

At 952ET, Mansfield was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with clear skies. With high pressure dominating the Great Lakes, there was nothing on the radar for miles. Two high amplitude troughs lie at either side of the ridge, but it was a classic Omega block in the Great Lakes region.
The block is beginning to break down, however, thanks to the western trough. A closed circulation will develop at the base of the trough and cut off over northwestern Mexico, leading the northern in and outflow of the higher amplitude trough to scoot eastward at a greater pace. Surface low pressure will develop in the Upper Midwest through the day tomorrow, while an associated cold front will intensify from Lake Michigan to Kansas late in the day. It will arrive in Mansfield during the predawn hours, bringing some rain, perhaps an embedded thunderstorm and some blustery wind. Things will quiet down and clear out by the evening. Expect a mild cool down.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 74, Low 52
Friday – Rain through the morning, with a chance at a thunderstorm, High 65, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 77, Low 51
Friday – Showers, High 66, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with intervals of clouds and sun (late rain) High 76, Low 50
Friday – Mostly cloudy and not as warm; a little rain in the morning followed by a shower in the afternoon High 66, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 74, Low 48
Friday – Showers, mainly before 1pm. High 67, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning, Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 48
Friday – Showers, High 66, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Patchy Fog High 75, Low 48
Friday – Mostly Cloudy with Light Showers High 68, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 76, Low 51
Friday – Light rain until afternoon. High 66, Low 51

Fortunately for the night tonight, it’s quiet, and for the forecast ahead, a recovery will come quickly. Look how empty this radar is. Most of the green is ground clutter.

An actual thunderstorm risk

As things finally dry out in the Carolinas, and a long, arduous process that will be, almost all of the country will be dry and enjoying some wonderful autumnal weather, and if need be, can offer their aid to residents of the Palmetto State.
There was a lot of rain in the Carolinas, and most of the precipitation across the country has been pretty docile otherwise. It’s been several weeks since there has been a full blown threat for severe thunderstorms. Alas, that’s what we have in the southwest, particularly around El Paso today and tonight,
El Paso Slight
A vorticity maximum has been rolling out of northern Mexico, and is triggering a few thunderstorms across the El Paso region. Earlier in the day, the threat was greater to the west, towards Tucson. Don’t anticipate that this is going to be a persistent pattern, fortunately. Much of the threat revolved around the terrain in the area, and as waves move away from the mountains, things will really mellow out.
And most importantly, South Carolina will still be dry.

Killeen, Texas to Logan, Utah

Two days and change for our trip through the emptiest swath of the continental United States. The drive will cover a total of 1330 miles, but it’s not a straight shot. That means our pace will be a paltry 63.2mph, which will lead to only 505 miles a day. Good luck with this drive. It’s going to be awful lonely.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
It’s full on monsoon season in the Rockies, as well as Omega blocking season in the Mississippi Valley. That means when we encounter elevation, we will also encounter the threat for thunderstorms. Fortunately, on Tuesday, we have a lot of Texas to get through first. Eastern New Mexico will be just as dry as Texas, but it will be a lot closer to the action. We’ll stop for the night at Lake Sumner, and in the distance at night, we will likely see some lightning off in the distance. There is a small chance that one small storm may pop up over us overnight, so plan for that, but don’t expect it.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
A weak wave developing in the northern High Plains is threatening to change the pattern as it emerges out of the northern Rockies. The convection will be limited over the central Rockies, but some murky shower activity will be possible through New Mexico. Flow out of Mexico will trigger deeper convection over southern New Mexico, and turning away from Albuquerque will be of great benefit to us. There may still be valley fog all the way to Cortez, Colorado, but it should clear a bit for the final home stretch. The day will end in Dove Creek, near the Utah border with Colorado.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
This is what you expect when driving out west. High pressure in Utah will help keep things fairly warm, and will certainly be dry. Bring some CDs, because you aren’t getting cell reception out here, and there isn’t a radio tower for hundreds of miles. Logan is going to feel like Manhattan when we get there.

Harmony in Texas

The center of the country has been downright wonderful, while the eastern Seaboard has been inundated with heavy rain, associated with Joaquin and systems around it. Either because the forecast was fairly calm, or everyone was so focused on the East Coast that people just let the models guide them everywhere else in the country, including Victoria. Whatever the case may be, there was a 4 way tie atop tie leaderboard, with nearly everyone done in by a clearer, cooler night leading into Saturday, but hammering the other validating times. Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel, WeatherNation and Weatherbug all tied at the top.
Actuals: Saturday – High 86, Low 51
Sunday – High 88, Low 55

Grade: B-C

A view of Joaquin, the hurricane

As we have noted several times at this point, Joaquin kicked a trough inland towards the Carolinas, and the storm himself came nowhere near the American Mainland. He remains a hurricane, centered just west of Bermuda, but he will continue to run well away from any larger land masses.
Considering all the news we have heard about the amount of rain the storm produced, though, maybe we could still be reminded of how far reaching the storm is. This storm that produced so much rain in the Carolinas also did this, hundreds of miles away, as a Category 3 hurricane, centered over the Bahamas.


Things clearing up in South Carolina

The state that was the most significantly impacted by Joaquin’s satellite trough was South Carolina, without a doubt. Take a look at the radar estimated rainfall totals in South Carolina.
The bullseyes can be a little spurious on these radar estimates. Looking at Columbia, we can see exactly what they saw this weekend. Yesterday, nearly three inches of rain was reported, but even more significantly today, 9 inches were reported. That’s a total of 12 inches, a full foot in the heart of South Carolina. I guarrantee, the airport the rain was measured at wasn’t the big winner, either. There were certainly spots with more rain, which means more than a foot in a weekend. Fortunately, we can look at the radar and see that things are clearing out.
There was so much rain, but South Carolina is a marshy state without the high terrain near the coast, like Central America, for example, but it will still be a few days or even weeks before we understand the real damage that Joaquin did to the Palmetto State.

Here comes trouble

Greensboro hasn’t been the most significantly impacted by Joaquin’s satellite feature impacting the Carolinas, but his impact was quite evident nevertheless. As the rain moved in, temperatures didn’t reach 70 on Thursday, and couldn’t even climb out of the 50s on Friday. Not only did the clouds stifle temperatures, the rain came through was apace of what one would expect with a tropical feature. I can tell you the nearly an inch wasn’t as much as they saw on Saturday, either. And they still weren’t even close to the big rainfall winners. The forecasts were all pretty accurate, if we want to take away one silver lining from all those gray clouds, with Accuweather barely edging the competition for victory.
Actuals: Thursday – .19 inches of rain, High 68, Low 55
Friday – .93 inches of rain, High 57, Low 50

Grade: A-B

Victoria, Texas

Today we head down to the great state of Texas and find out what’s happening along the Gulf Coast! Surely an early fall weekend there will be warm and accommodating, right? Let’s find out!

At 1153pm, the temperature in Victoria, TX is 66 degrees under mostly clear skies. An intense high pressure continues to camp out over Ontario/Quebec, with the ridge axis continuing southward all the way to the Western Gulf of Mexico. Very impressive! While the high will be weakening over the next couple of days, quiet and warm weather is expected to persist from the Upper Midwest down into the Southern Plains. Couldn’t ask for a nicer weekend!

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 87, Low 56.
Sunday: Continued sunny and warm. High 88, Low 57.

TWC: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 86, Low 58.
Sunday: Sunny. High 88, Low 59.

AW: Saturday: Mostly sunny and nice. High 84, Low 56.
Sunday: Partly sunny and pleasant. High 86, Low 57.

NWS: Saturday: Sunny. High 86, Low 54.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 87, Low 59.

WB: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 86, Low 54.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High 87, Low 59.

WN: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 86, Low 55.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 88, Low 59.

FIO: Saturday: Partly cloudy starting in evening. High 85, Low 57.
Sunday: Partly cloudy overnight. High 85, Low 58.

Here we see Eastern TX pretty quiet under high pressure, with almost nary a cloud in the sky. Much better than the flooding the Southeast is experiencing.


The Week Ahead 10/4/15-10/10/15

With a particularly nasty week ahead in the eastern US, naturally, we are going to steer well away from the worst of the weather in our first full week in October.


Monday – Road Trip from Killeen, Texas to Logan, Utah
Wednesday – Mansfield, Ohio; Road Trip from Corvallis, Oregon to Mansfield
Thursday – Road Trip from Mansfield to Mount Vernon, Washington
Friday – Raleigh, North Carolina
Saturday – San Francisco, California

The official blog of Victoria-Weather