Coming soon…

These next few days are going to be dominated by the edges of the country, though there will be one big long cross country adventure. 

McAllen, Texas

Ocean City, New Jersey

Road trip from Ocean City to Merced, California

Jacksonville, North Carolina

Owensboro, Kentucky

The University of Kentucky won their Sweet 16 game tonight, and in honor (or coincidence) of that victory, we are headed to Owensboro, a couple hours from Lexington.

At 1153PM, CT, Owensboro was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies. Southerly flow is being seen across Kentucky, ahhead of a very rainy, developing cold front moving through southeastern Missouri. The trough parenting this low is quickly becoming detached from the broader flow aloft, and the boundary’s momentum will peter out over night.
The rain will instead arrive in Owensboro during the late morning tomorrow. It may at times be heavy, with an embedded thunderstorm. The low will shift northeast, rather aimlessly through the rest of the weekend. Flow will continue unabated from the Gulf of Mexico, and the continued cyclonic flow in the mid-Mississippi Valley will mean the continued threat for showers and storms in Owensboro. As the trough flattens out aloft, the feature will be more motivated to move on, with rain finally coming to an end on Sunday evening.
Tomorrow – Showers and storms, High 71, Low 59
Sunday – Early showers, ending late, High 67, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early with thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 73, Low 61
Sunday – Cloudy with showers. Thunder possible. High 67, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and breezy, then turning colder in the afternoon with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 70, Low 62
Sunday – A passing shower or two in the morning; otherwise, periods of clouds and sun High 67, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Cloudy High 74, Low 61
Sunday – A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 70, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 69, Low 63
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers, High 65, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with chance of thunderstorms, High 73, Low 61
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 70, Low 55

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 79, Low 60
Sunday – Light rain until evening. High 71, Low 56

Look out Owensboro, here comes the rain… slowly but surely.

Problems come out at night

If you considered only the daylight hours, the forecast for Merced was pretty good. Everyone who, at the time, had a functional website, did pretty well with their forecast highs. There were a few exceptions, but it was mostly ok. But then, there were the overnight lows. Thats when most of the error came. The worst was the Wednesday morning low, which nobody did better than 4 degrees of error. the top forecast came to Weatherbug, who rose to the top with a perfect Thursday high.
Actuals: Wednesday – Rain reported, not measured, High 61, Low 43
Thursday – High 64, Low 40

Grade: B-C

Weather Wayback… Flint fares just fine

Way back in January, we were worried about the persistent threat for rain and snow that comes with seemingly every wave that moves through the Great Lakes. There was the threat for some drizzle in Flint on the 18th and 19th, but rain is a lot less likely because of lake effect than snow is. Temperatures were above freezing, so snow didn’t happen, and at least during the forecast period, nor did it rain. Accuweather and Weatherbug won the forecast thanks to a nearly precise temperature forecast, but WeatherNation gets kudos for being the only outlet to leave precipitation out of the forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday, January 18th, High 38, Low 35
Thursday, January 19th – High 42, Low 30

Grade: B-C

San Angelo, Texas

I know this is a little unconventional, but how would you feel about a second forecast today? I thought you might be ok with it.

At 1151PM, CT, San Angelo was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies. The southern plains were seeing temperatures on the upswing as warm moist air spillied in from the Gulf towards developing low pressure over the central Rockies.
Tomorrow will see wind switch to become more from the southwest, drying out the atmosphere and helping temperatures warm up more swiftly.
As the low emerges in the Plains overnight Thursday into Friday, a cold front will appear, becoming active with isolated strong thunderstorms from western Kansas to west Texas. The chance for some rain or embedded thunderstorms will arrive just before sunrise in San Angelo on Friday. The passage of the cold front may go without a drop of rain, but it will be noticeably more pleasant on Friday, thanks to the extraction of humidity from the atmosphere. Expect fairly gusty winds, particularly on Thursday evening, tapering off by midday on Friday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, windy. High 83, Low 63
Friday – Early morning thunder, then clearing and less humid – High 79, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sun and a few clouds with gusty winds. High 82, Low 62
Friday – Windy with a few clouds from time to time. (Early AM storms) High 82, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy, windy and very warm High 85, Low 63
Friday – Plenty of sunshine; windy with blowing dust (early AM showers) High 83, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (Late rain) High 84, Low 61
Friday – Sunny (Early rain), High 81, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, windy – High 82, Low 63
Friday – Mostly sunny (early rain), High 80, Low 60

WN: Tomorrow  – Partly cloudy (late storms), High 84, Low 61
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon, and windy starting in the afternoon, continuing until night.High 87, Low 62
Friday – Mostly cloudy until morning. High 83, Low 57

Forecast.io is keeping rain out of the forecast. I suspect they may be right, but I’m definitely not brave enough to put it in the forecast. Here is the satellite, showing our system getting organized in the Rockies.

Augusta, Georgia

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 47
Friday – Sunny, High 71, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 62, Low 48
Friday – Mostly sunny skies. High 76, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds giving way to some sun high 64, Low 46
Friday – Warmer with intervals of clouds and sun High 75, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, high 64, Low 43
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 64, Low 48
Friday – Mostly sunny High 74, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 43
Friday – Partly cloudy, High \1, Low 45

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until morning.High 68, Low 44
Friday – Partly cloudy until evening. High 77, Low 45

So there it is. Not a terrible couple of days. I would say 2 days that I wouldn’t mind having here in at Victoria Weather HQ!

Merced, California

Let’s get out to California. There was a tornado warning just northwest of Merced today. Anything else to be concerned about on the horizon?

At 953PM, CT, Merced was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The tornado threat of this afternoon is long past, though there were a few showers well to the north towards Chico, while Merced and the area around was much clearer. A cold front swept through the area earlier, and there was some wind damage reported in the central Valley as it passed by. Through the day tomorrow, a sharp upper level trough will remain in place over the west coast, and an onshore flow will allow the threat for showers, particularly along the western exposures of the Coastal Range and Sierra Nevadas to persist.
A shortwaved ridge will move into the area by Thursday morning as the region will clear out. There will be a bit of a clearing on Thursday, allowing for a warm up and sunshine. The break will be short lived, as the next threat for rain will arrive by Friday.  Surface low pressure will linger off the coast of British Columbia, only to be reinforced by a newly arrived upper level wave on Friday. This persistent surface feature may lead to Merced being a bit murkier, even on Thursday, when t will otherwise be clearer.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a chance for light rain, High 62, Low 50
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning with scattered thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon. High 62, Low 47
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 66, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow – Site is down for maintenance 🙁

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 67, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 60, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. High 64, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 64, Low 48
Thursday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. high 71, Low 41

I tried to wait out Accuweather, but I need to go to bed. No forecast from them tonight. here is the radar in northern California, which will pick back up again tomorrow .

Weather Wayback… A happier time

The second weekend of the year in eastern Washington may have seemed like a rough weekend, as temperatures were not anticipated to climb out of the lower 20s. In fact, those temperatures couldn’t even clear the mid teens in Yakima, where we issued a forecast on January 14th. Unanticipated was an overcast that brought some light snow all the way down to the Yakima Valley both Saturday the 14th and Sunday the 15th. The forecasts were calamitous, all across the board, with The Weather Channel narrowly winning the day on a particularly awful forecast. Now, this past week, however, the warm weather has led to rapid snowmelt, accompanied with heavy rain earlier this week has led to some significant flooding in the city of Yakima. Fortunately waters are receding quickly, and after this post, we won’t have to worry about the other disaster – the forecast from January 14th.
Actuals: Saturday, January 15th, snow reported and not measured, High 15, Low 1
Sunday, January 16th – Snow reported and not measured, High 16, Low 12

Grade F

Jackson, Michigan to Manchester, New Hampshire

We’re going to Canada! At long last, we are cutting through southern Ontario to facilitate our day and a half drive, from southeast Michigan to southeast New Hampshire. The drive is 827 miles, which we will cover at a pace of 65mph. This means our first day should be through after 521 miles of driving, which should place us safely back on American soil for the night.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)

Off we go, and I am happy to report that our venture through Ontario will be slowed only by customs going into and returning from our neighbors to the north. A cold front will be forcing its way towards the Tennessee Valley, so we will be experiencing a bit of a chill, and some breezy weather in Chatham-Kent, London and Hamilton, but no actual precipitation. There may be a few flurries up in the Adirondacks when we return to New York, and we might see a flake as we stop in Westmoreland for the night, but that’s hardly Canada’s fault.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
The rear lobe of a system moving offshore from New England is expected to organize a bit over Nova Scotia on Wednesday, wrapping moisture back into the White and Green Mountains. We should be far enough south that we stay snow free, but there will likely be a few midlevel clouds as we navigate through Massachusetts and finally arrive in Manchester.

Shenanigans!

Just before midnight on Sunday night in Longview, Texas, there was a report of light rain. It was at the regular observing time from an automatic station. Skies were clear. Skies were clear everywhere around Longview. I looked at the radar. Nothing. All signs point to this being an erroneous observation by a robot hopped up on too much late night petroleum (or whatever robots drink). The problem is that a couple of outlets DID forecast rain, and you can’t always just dismiss these random reports. The only fair thing, in my mind, was to let it go, and not worry about precipitation for this particular forecast, and let it boil down to temperature analysis. In that regard, Accuweather (who DID have rain in the forecast) earned the top spot, while Victoria-Weather (who did NOT) followed in close pursuit.
Actuals – Sunday – Precipitation – ???, High 85, Low 57
Monday – High 87, Low 63

Grade: C

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