It’s been a chilly, rainy week across the middle of the country. It’s also been getting warmer and warmer out west as summer bears down on the Pacific Coast. I wanted to see if there is going to be a respite in the near future.
Most of the country will continue to be clobbered by rain as the upper level pattern remains relentless. There will continue to be areas of low pressure developing from the central and southern Plains to the southeast, asbroad upper level troughing simply refuses to leave. Towards the beginning of June, the stronger jet components will diminish, but troughing at the upper levels will continue.
Oh, and you know what upper level troughing means.
Cold, right in the middle of the country. And then, in the west it will remain warm, exasperating snow melt in that area. One area that benefits overall is the East Coast, which will enjoy southerly flow through most of the next two weeks.
Almost every region of the country has some sort of advisory for flooding, be it river flooding or flash flooding or something.
Much f the country, particularly those parts in the Appalachians down towards the central Gulf Coast, and spots from the Ozarks to the western Great Lakes are all under flood advisories. These are all due to all the rain these areas have seen. Watch out along the coast, because this rain is still coming.
It looks pretty dry out west, doesn’t it? What’s going on there? Well, this is a carryover from a snowy winter, and now that spring temperatures are on the rise, there is rapid snow melt, leading to the engorging of mountain streams and rivers.
If you see a flooded roadway, especially one you aren’t otherwise familiar with, don’t try t traverse it. That is the deadliest mistake most often made in flood situations.
Often times, sports are at the mercy of the elements. Football games are played in the rain and snow and ridiculous cold. Soccer matches are played in blistering heat and drowning humidity. Baseball games are usually what we equate most to being affected by the elements since teams usually encounter several rain delays a season. However, today is the 38th anniversary of a game that was greatly affected by another weather element… wind!
On May 17th, 1979, the Philadelphia Phillies played the Chicago Cubs in south-southwesterly winds steady at 20-25mph and gusting to almost 40mph at times. The Windy City certainly lived up to its name, since that wind direction blows straight out to left at Wrigley Field. Wrigley is famous (or infamous) for games in which the wind blows out, since balls that are normally hit as long fly outs often times wind up landing in the bleachers. This game was no exception but wound up becoming an extreme example. By the time the game was over after 10 innings, the two teams combined for 11 home runs and an incredible 45 runs, as the Phillies defeated the Cubs 23-22. Those 45 runs are the 2nd most in a MLB game in history, with the Phillies and Cubs combining for 49 back in the 1920s.
Today, the Reds and Cubs played a game in which “only” 12 runs, but the winds were gusty from the south-southwest once again. In fact, one Reds batter hit a ball that given it’s trajectory leaving the bat has NEVER been a home run… until tonight. Gotta love weather, never know what it will affect on a day to day basis!
There have been strong thunderstorms throughout the Plains, especially the northern Plains, where even at this late hour, there are severe thunderstorm watches from Wisconsin to Wyoming, including one around Sioux City Iowa that was recently issued.
This is the calling call of advancing warm air, these late night areas of convection. Storms can be strong, and will feed off of each other overnight, but will dissipate tomorrow morning.
Then, the next round will step in almost immediately. A more well organized area of low pressure will slide into the Plains tomorrow, and will generate helicity and updrafts within a juicy environment. The SPC has a much more perilous forecast for tomorrow. Check out the area that is hatched on this forecast map.
Hatched areas are those in which there is a threat for “significant” severe weather. In this case, I would expect hail over an inch in diameter or tornadoes EF-2 or stronger.
Storms will continue through the night, but the bigger threat will come tomorrow in the Plains. Expect some good video of some photogenic activity as it rolls through chase country.
Spring is finally taking hold over the Upper Midwest, with temperatures this weekend finally pushing into the 80s for the first time all year in the Twin Cities. The forecast not only calls for a couple more days in the 80s, but even a possible run at 90 for Tuesday. Sweltering even! However, the big story of the next few days isn’t the increasing heat, it’s the impending deluge that is taking aim at the Upper Midwest. A couple areas of low pressure look to eject along a stationary boundary that’s setting up over the region, and with them comes plentiful moisture from the south. The SPC has issued a Slight risk for southern MN for Monday and also extends through the area for Tuesday. This boundary is going to the the likely focus of training thunderstorms over the next couple of days, which could inundate newly planted crops when farmers were able to take advantage of the last few dry, sunny days. Rain is always good to help kickstart some new crops, but too much of a good thing could stop them before they even get a chance to get going.
Spring systems moving through the northern Plains have been dangling cold fronts and touching off severe storms in the central and southern Plains for a few weeks now. The bulk of the deadly tornadoes have occurred from the Mississippi Valley eastward, but by and large, they have been from the Ohio River south. As May ends and June approaches, the onus will begin to shift north.
For the next two days, there is at least a marginal threat for severe weather as far north as the Dakotas and Minnesota.
The threat isn’t from a particularly extraordinary system, but rather a fairly minor area of low pressure. The change is that there is much more warmth filtering north than there was a few weeks ago, had a similar system passed by. The base level is more unstable, and less is required to touch storms off.
Wind and hail will be the greatest threat throughout the region, but don’t be surprised to see an isolated tornado along the Minnesota-Iowa border. Gusty winds will be more likely on Tuesday, when the threat will again stretch the length of the Plains.
It has seemed like we didn’t make too many appearances here at Victoria-Weather in the month of April, but truly, we were around for about the average number of forecasts that we appear for. With that said, I am very happy to note that Victoria-Weather dominated all those forecasts and won the month by a wide margin, and took the lead for the year.
They said April showers bring May flowers, but nobody said what April blizzards bring. A rather potent low pressure system raked the Central US this weekend and isn’t done yet. Flooding rains have inundated northeast OK to central IL/southern IN as well as the Central Gulf Coast. Spots along the MS River at far southern MS/IL could be looking at record crests over the next couple of days.
Meanwhile, further off to the west, an epic blizzard slammed the Plains from the TX Panhandle up into central NE, and the snow is expected to fall all the way to northeastern MN. Several reports of over a foot are found from the NW TX Panhandle to western KS, and videos showed areas with 2-3 foot drifts everywhere. Certainly not what one would want to see with May just minutes away. Luckily the snow will melt off fairly quick with highs in the 50s and 60s coming up in the next few days, but still, it’s going to be a nuisance as people try to go to work and school tomorrow!
We’re still a good 5-6 weeks away from hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin (even though we just had our first named storm last week, which didn’t do anything other than annoy some fish and perhaps a shipping lane or two), but that doesn’t mean areas of the US can’t see tropical moisture in mid-Spring. A cut-off area of low pressure is traversing the Southeast US right now, which has taken some Gulf Stream moisture and dumped it over the Carolinas at its’ leisure. Widespread reports of 2-4 inches of rain has fallen from Central TN eastward throughout the Carolinas, with much of the rain falling over the Carolinas in the last 24-36 hours. Some portions of the Smoky Mountains have come in at 6-8 inches over the last couple of days, prompting Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings over most of Central and Southeastern NC and northern SC as well. Here we see the rainfall amounts over the last 3 days and unfortunately, it continues to rain heavily in NC tonight and will into tomorrow.