11:31PM: This is getting fairly repetitive. Severe weather keeps churning in central South Dakota, and a bit of convection continues into southwest Minnesota, particularly around Montevideo and Willmar. It’s been doing this for a couple of days now! The pattern is changing for tomorrow and the weekend.

June 1 is an inflection point on the meteorological calendar. It is the beginning of hurricane season, and the beginning of the meteorological summer season. Meteorological summer is marked by very warm temperatures in the south, along with dry conditions in the west and a steady diet of thunderstorms in the southeast. Also, the onus for severe weather shifts to the north. June itself is the most active severe period for the northern Plain and western Great Lakes.

How will this summer fit with the standard summer?

Precipitation has several areas that are expected to be outside of the normal ranges, but they are generally small, and could go either way. The only stand out is the Rockies, where it looks like the monsoon should be particularly active this summer.

The temperatures offer a different tale. The west in particular will be warmer than normal, with the south also expected to be above normal. The hot get hotter.

Enjoy the heat, stay hydrated, and have a good summer.

As has been the case recently, the trade winds over the Atlantic basin, as well as ocean temperatures are elevated. Both of these traits are consistent with active hurricane seasons, which we have certainly been privy to for the last decade or so. Also this summer, El Niño is forecast to intensify, and generally, El Niño is an inhibitor to tropical development. Which of those factors will win out?

The National Hurricane Center officially says that they believe it will be El Niño that wins the summer, and has officially forecast a below normal hurricane season because of it.

The NHC takes care to point out the importance of maintaining your hurricane vigilance even as the outlook is more favorable than it has been in a while. Part of the reason is the factors working against a quiet year hurricane season (water temperature, weak trades). Another, larger part of the suggestion for continued concern is that in the end, it doesn’t matter if the season is quiet or not if one of the few larger storm strikes your home. In 1992, there were only 7 named storms. One of those storms was Hurricane Andrew.

The outlook is promising on a holistic level, however the consistent warning when it comes to the hurricane season remains the same. It only takes one bad storm to set the impression of an entire season.

Do you know what county you are in? You probably know what county you live in. but do you know what county you work in? Let’s say you do know that information: Do you know the name of the county just to you west? Or in any other direction?

Compounding that even further, do you travel? For work or for pleasure. If so, can you find where you are, generally, on a map? GPS is great for getting us places, but for some people, it has made map reading extremely difficult, as for most, it isn’t a muscle that often needs to be flexed.

There is one area that counties and geolocation are important. The NWS still issues watches and warnings based on counties. Radar only shows the largest locations, and even then, the scale isn’t always perfect. Or if you are traveling, say, to the Dallas area, would you realize as you are in Grapevine that you are north of Fort Worth?

This is the current radar from West Texas, simply because it is the only site with severe weather tonight.

The yellow boxes represent severe thunderstorm warnings. Here is the text on one of those warnings:

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCCULLOCH...NORTHEASTERN MENARD AND NORTHWESTERN
MASON COUNTIES...

At 922 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Us-
190 Near The Menard-
Mcculloch County Line, or near Calf Creek, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Calf Creek around 930 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include The
Intersection Of Us-190 And Ranch Road 1311 and Us-
190 Near The Menard-Mcculloch County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

You, I assume, are like me, and wouldn’t know which warning that was for, had I not just clicked on it. It wouldn’t mean much to me if I was in West Texas. In this scenario, let’s say I had heard of Calf Creek, because I was nearby in Eden. Would I know, based on the polygon that the storm was coming for me? Of if I was in Junction, would I know that it wasn’t?

One thing that meteorologists always tell you when there are forecasts for severe weather is to be prepared. Especially when you are away from home, take the time to figure out where you are on the map. If the forecast looks dicey, learn what county you are in, and even what part of the county, if you can. Victoria, for example, is in Carver County, Minnesota, and on the east side, near the border with Hennepin County. To the west, northwest and southwest are McLeod, Wright and Sibley Counties. Even when not eyeballing the radar myself, if I heard on the radio or saw an alert on TV for one of those counties, I should start to pay closer attention.

I’m a map nerd, certainly, and a lot of this comes to me naturally. That said, the weather warning apparatus necessarily makes assumptions about YOUR ability to read a map and know where you are. Take the time to hone those skills.

It’s mid-May, and we are suddenly in he severe weather doldrums, as there are a few spots of slight risk moving from the Rockies into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next couple of days. It seems like the jump from winter weather to rote showers and thunderstorms was pretty abrupt. In fact, the story of last week was snow in Colorado and Wyoming.

This slower pattern has likely kept traffic down on our favorite weather websites, but if you were there, surely you learned quite a bit about El Nino and pollen. If you haven’t been to visit our friends, you may not have noted the refreshed look of Weatherbug

The new look is definitely informed by their background as a popular app, both on mobile, and as software starting 20 years ago. It’s clean, compartmentalized and easy to distinguish from one piece of information to another. It doesn’t feel as though an app developer tried to build a website, however, which is a very good bit of news. The bug crawling around is fun.

I know we’ve had a couple of font or layout based posts lately, but this is for two reasons. One, it’s quiet out there, but two, the importance of good communication in meteorology can’t be understated. Bad weather often needs immediate action, and that needs to be transmitted clearly. Even if not immediate, threats also need to be clearly addressed, in a manner that is obtainable by people that aren’t necessarily versed in atmospheric science.

Building trust through understanding, legibility and accuracy is important in the quiet times, as well. If we have learned anything in the last several years, it is that science is useless if it can’t be communicated.

We made it through one of the chilliest stretches to start May in a while. There were readings in the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest that suggested that numbers, like morning lows around freezing, or stretches below 50, had not been seen since about 2013. This time of year, that reads more as late winter than late spring.

Finally, though, 10, going on 11 days in, the persistent eastern trough is breaking down, and warm air is flowing back north through the Eastern US. And it will persist, with warm forecasts expected for most.

It has also been a dry start to May. April Showers may be through, but May showers are appreciated, too. The jet structure is going to be lifted along the Canadian border, and will be pocked with short undercutting waves. Bundles of energy to bring some precipitation into the picture as well.

You may note that this is not a uniform color scheme. There remains some below normal precipitation in the west, but the good news is, that this typically dodgy area is actually not in a drought this year. They will withstand some dry weather .

The rain is going to come in places where it is needed. The southeast and northwest remain thirsty, but the Plains are going to warm up, and be satiated for the next couple of weeks.

It’s not been common lately that I’ve been able to get the forecaster of the month post up early in the following month AND it is happening on a quiet weather day. Even more rare is that this month, every outlet had a share of at least one victory… except The Weather Channel. They remain in the lead for the year, but Clime had a very good finish to the month, and it brought them to victory.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	3
Clime	2.33
WeatherNation	2.16
National Weather Service	1.83
Accuweather	1.33
Victoria-Weather	1
Weatherbug	0.33

I was more skeptical of the chances for rain in Logan earlier this week than most, because it looked like precipitation would be available for the higher terrain, and less so in the dry, urban locales of Utah. Not that I didn’t want it to rain, as this part of the world will take advantage of precipitation when they can. There was about a third of an inch on Monday, while Tuesday saw a few drips, but no actual reports of rain on Sunday. Clime had it’s second very good forecast verification in a row, earning the championship for the day.
Actuals: Monday – .32″ of rain, High 51, Low 32
Tuesday – .01″ of rain reported, not measured. High 54, low 30

Grade: B

The CPC has issued their outlook, as of yesterday, for the 6-10 day, 8-14 day and 3-4 week outlooks. This is the 6-10 day outlook, but I assure you, the other two vary only slightly.

The jet flow is going to be bifurcated throughout the next couple weeks, with a strong jet running along the northern Gulf Coast. The Polar jet will be wavering along the Canadian border, often dipping into the US as a trough, ensuring some active weather, however the jet streak to the south will be an effective barrier to moisture rising into the continental US. We aren’t anticipating many soakers around the Great Lakes. This will do wonders for the drought in the southeast, though.

Even with successive waves from the northern jet, it’s really just seasonal thermal forcing that is going to break down the feature to the south and start allowing warmth and moisture back to the north. This isn’t expected to happen until around the 11th, though, which is why we have such a lengthy stretch of below normal temperatures East of the Rockies. It’s still nearly two weeks out, but the action of the northern jet by the 11th tells me that it won’t suddenly get hot in the northern tier, with ongoing showers and storms remaining likely, which will keep temperatures a little cooler if the showers are too widespread

If you are a fan of warm weather, this forecast is a bummer. If you are a storm chaser, this is also a bummer, as this should put a damper on what is historically one of the most active storm periods on the calendar. If you live on the West Coast, you can ignore everything above and enjoy the beach.

Just after sunrise on April 27th, the SPC elevated the thunderstorm forecast for southeastern Missouri to a moderate risk. A deep upper level trough was generating a strong area of low pressure in the Plains that was feasting on the chaos of colliding air masses. Cold and Canadian with tropical and maritime. The helicity in the atmosphere meant tornadoes were likely.

There were indeed several tornadoes from Missouri to Indiana, with a great deal of damage wrought by straight line winds. The tornadoes were embedded within a line, and at some point, it becomes a bit academic as to whether damage is caused by winds or tornadoes.

The changes to the SPC and the deeper set of information within the convective outlook are new features to the thunderstorm season. I wanted to take this specific example to look at what the SPC released, and see what factors best correlate to the outlook that is provided. First, here is the outlook, issued in the early hours on Monday.

As a bit of background, the change that was recently made to the storm hazard maps added a storm intensity rubric to go along with the probability guidelines that had been a part of those maps before. Take a look at the wind and hail maps to get the idea.

So, you can see there was a high probability of strong wind, and a lower probability of hail, but the hail in the forecast was expected to be larger. We can also see that neither the high probability of severe wind, or the expectation of large hail defined the moderate outlook boundaries. That’s not particularly surprising. That the significant hail in central Texas didn’t lead to a higher outlook than a marginal risk in central Texas surprised me, though.

Moderate and high risk events generally need a threat of tornadoes, so let’s look at the tornado outlook issued at the same time as the full outlook.

The threat for strong tornadoes is only designated on the charts as 1, 2 or 3, and the probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a spot is more well defined. Perhaps it is no surprise, then, that the moderate hugs the 15% chance of a tornado risk. I’m sure it didn’t hurt the case that the forecast was a level 2 on the intensity scale, either.

For what it’s worth, here is the break down of severe reports.