Finally, the Western US was inundated with a drought quenching rain throughout the winter and into the spring. It was a profound relief for a part of the world that had a drought for so long, and endured a threat for fires every summer for years, and a relief for cynical newscasters who didn’t want viewers to think they were watching reruns every year.

And yet here we are again, buffeted by wild fire stories. Granted, they aren’t as widespread, either the fires or the stories, but they are cropping up again. The stories aren’t as prevalent because the threat to life and property hasn’t been as immediate, and the fires aren’t quite as encompassing because the environment is a bit less dry than it’s been in years.

But even in the best years, fires are always possible out west. Just because the winter was wet doesn’t mean that holds for the summer. There is ground water, but it’s always dry in the summer out west. One thing that compounds the threat is that it’s also extremely warm. The heat helps to dry things out and create more fuel to the fires.

Additionally, we are in the midst of the monsoon season in the intermountain west. While we associate the word monsoon with the inundating rains of south Asia, in the western US, it means widespread thunderstorms, but those storms may not necessarily come with rain. Lightning with these storms has historically been the natural cause of wildfires, and it is in full force again this summer.

The dog days are here. and even though some relief is coming for the coast, the Rockies will stay hot, dry and favorable for thunderstorms and wildfires.

Hurricane Beryl continues to roil through the Ohio Valley as a weak area of low pressure. There is still some threat for severe weather because of the storm, but her most ominous days are behind her. The Lesser Antilles have already been recovering for a week!

Also in the last few days, there has been a minor change here at the site. You may notice the icon at the top of your web browser has changed. I learned that another weather provider uses a logo that is very similar to the old orange on black that I used. Now, it is a white V a white to blue gradient, like clouds in the sky. If you saw that and were confused, that is the explanation.

That is also the logo I will use if the June forecaster of the month news hits the mainstream. We went as far away as Alaska with our forecasts this month, but the winner is close to home. It’s us, if that wasn’t already abundantly clear.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	8.82
Victoria-Weather	7.48
WeatherNation	3.83
Accuweather	3.16
Clime	3
National Weather Service	1.49
Weatherbug	1

I mentioned the rain that is forecast to come this week, painting a particular target on eastern Iowa, southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin in my last update. Fortunately, the overlap with areas that have already seen too much rain this summer is not perfect. But there is still overlap, and the rain has caused some mighty problems for areas from the Siouxland of Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska northeast through south central Minnesota.

In southeastern South Dakota, McCook Lake, an unconnected oxbow lake suddenly had water flowing into it from runoff and redirected flow, causing it to overspill its bank, and destroying property north of Sioux City. The rising water damaged cropland from Nebraska and South Dakota east through northwest Iowa and southwestern Minnesota. The towns of Windom, Jackson and Waterville were underwater, because of the Des Moines River in Windom and Jackson, and the Cannon River in Waterville. The above video shows the scene in the south Twin Cities metro, where Shakopee’s Valley Fair Amusement Park had to close some rides and lost use of their parking lot because the Minnesota has spilled its banks. And of course, we have all seen video of the rising water opting to circumvent the Rapidan Dam, with disastrous regional effects.

Fortunately, it was a dry weekend. Unfortunately, the week ahead doesn’t look that way. A few more successive waves in the northern Plains look to keep things cool and wet. The bullseye for wet weather is shifted a bit to the east, so the smaller creeks and rivers may not see repeat flood risks, but most of these waterways flow in the same direction. Eventually, there may be concern for Mississippi River towns from the Twin Cities on south.

It’s certainly been a minute since we checked in on the status of our top forecasters for the months and the year. It’s too bad because especially in April, the news was good for Victoria-Weather. It was a well contested month by all parties, but Victoria-Weather ended up comfortably surpassing our competitors.

We had a few more stops on the forecast train in May, which will allow our champion, Accuweather, to take a little bit more credit for the month. Not to toot our own horns, but Victoria-Weather came in second in May as well. A solid spring, but what’s the story for the year?

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	8.82
Victoria-Weather	5.48
WeatherNation	2.83
Accuweather	2.66
Clime	2.5
National Weather Service	1.49
Weatherbug	1

A lot of the attention for the week, including on this site, has revolved around the eclipse and whether or not we will be able to view it, even if we are in the axis of totality. The story for the rest of the week will follow a lot of the same territory, but will instead surround the threat for tornadoes and other severe weather.

A sharp upper level trough is moved into the Plains yesterday and isn’t really related to the inclement weather obscuring the sky during the eclipse. As it moved in, surface low pressure attempted to organize in west Texas that afternoon and evening. While access to moisture was be limited, access to potential energy was not.

In a scenario like this, you might see some “LP” or Low Precipitation supercells, which are the type that produce the photogenic tornadoes moving through open fields that you see in textbooks. The feature didn’t have enough tight circulation to introduce a bunch of tornadoes, but the updrafts were there, and even without much rain falling, we saw some jumbo sized hail.

It will be more of the same today, but with the bullseye shifted to east Texas and western Louisiana. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes, though perhaps not gigantic twisters, will increase in this area as the low gets more focused and better moisture. We can see with the SPC activity loop that there are a couple of watches out already, and the threat for severe weather today is increasing

This negative trend will continue through the heart of Dixie Alley on Wednesday, with tornadoes and strong winds possible through Mississippi, and again on Thursday in Alabama, Georgia and north Florida. Especially by tomorrow, the ingredients will be perfectly meshed for a potentially high end severe weather event. There is a chance to see a major tornado outbreak in the moderate risk region for severe weather outlook, which include Baton Rouge, Jackson and the parts of Dixie Alley that are far too accustomed to this kind of weather.

One thing that we know for sure about next week, is that for a long track of the eastern US, the moon will obfuscate the sun in the mid-afternoon. The eclipse is happening, and we’ve long known where the eclipse was happening.

Every forecast you see usually comes with a couple of words spared for the level of overcast on a given day. There is almost no brainpower expended on this process for most meteorologists that I know. Essentially, my go to method is to determine flow if you are near the sea, and proximity to an area of inclement weather. It works out well enough, and is frankly not something that many people follow up on.

So with that in mind, just know that I and most other weather people are flexing a muscle that we don’t often exercise when discussing the potential visibility of the celestial event of the year. I can state with some more knowledge that there will be an area of low pressure over the Upper Midwest that is quite occluded. At the time of the eclipse, the secondary low will be over the eastern Great Lakes, and the boundary will be along a line roughly from Pittsburgh to Houston.

Along that line, in particular, expect some clouds, and it will probably be a little dicey south of that boundary with moisture spilling into the region. The low over the Great Lakes, as well, will likely be more cloudy than not. Of course, this coincides with the axis of greatest coverage for the eclipse, which is a bummer for something so anticipated.

If you travel to Texas for the eclipse, you can still see some natural phenomenon in the evening. The next round of unstable weather will touch off some severe storms in west Texas, targeting the Wichita Falls area on Monday evening, with tornadoes a concern, along with large hail. I can confirm that these thunderstorms will completely obscure the sun.

We’ve made it through the third month of the year that had an intense focus on the Midwest. Victoria-Weather, as should be expected, was strong for the month, but not as strong as The Weather Channel, who took the month, and the lead through three months for the year.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	6.49
Victoria-Weather	3.13
Clime	2
WeatherNation	1.83
National Weather Service	1.49
Accuweather	1.16
Weatherbug	0.67

It’s opening day for —

OK, so not the Mets, but it IS opening day for —

Well, ok, as you can see from these stories, there is a long strand of wet weather straddling the east coast through the mid-Atlantic. Once you are a little bit inland, though, happy opening day, baseball fans!

As seen in the video from NBC news, tragedy has befallen Baltimore Harbor, where a cargo vessel leaving the harbor lost power and steamed directly into a support for the Key Bridge, the outermost bridge spanning the Patapsco River, collapsing the span into the River. Two were rescued, though around 20 drivers and construction workers are through to be missing.

Today, this morning, while time is the most critical for whatever recovery can be done to save lives if possible, the weather was at least accommodating. There were clear skies and the Patapsco was calm, which will allow the waterway to be as clear as the waterway can get. It is a busy thoroughfare for maritime traffic and surrounded by a large city, so it is generally murky, and often quite chilly.

Even after the initial recovery is completed, it will be important to continue clearing the wreckage from the mouth of the Patapsco. Baltimore Harbor is one of the busiest on the Eastern Seaboard, and an important source of goods coming into and out of the United States. The longer the harbor is closed, the more likely it is to make a dent on the economy.

Unfortunately, the weather will not be cooperating in these efforts in the next couple of days. There are storms, both rain and snow, from the Great Lakes to the the Florida Panhandle, and this system is headed eastward. It won’t have much energy or much moisture for the coastal Plains, but it will rejuvenate upon reaching the ocean. Even before moisture falls, inflow will blow right through Chesapeake Bay up to Baltimore Harbor.

Rainfall will likely be most intense on Thursday morning, before a reconstituted system can pull off to sea. For the next couple of weeks, the mid-Atlantic looks to expect normal temperatures, but above normal moisture. The falling rain muddies up rivers, and will not help divers without the aid of sonar. Fortunately, for the long term recovery and replacement efforts, near normal conditions are expected around Baltimore, which means warming temperatures and average precipitation.

Hopefully, this can facilitate a rapid clean up and a return to normal for the city of Baltimore. Victoria-Weather extends condolences to those who have lost during this tragedy.

I wrote last week about the strange forecast coming up for the Twin Cities, where some forecast outlets were calling for a ton of snow, despite so many factors working against a huge accumulation. Well, the storm is nearly over (a recap on that through some updates on the site later) in Minnesota, but the system is still around, and bringing some severe weather concerns in the deep south.

The jet across the country is strong, a common scenario when encountering spring season storm threats, and it is helping the system in the Plains occlude fairly quickly, with an additional area of low pressure developing at the surface northwest of the Mississippi Delta. There is a copious amount of moisture down here, as always, but now also quite a bit of turning in the atmosphere, or vorticity.

The vorticity is compounded by the fact that the wind is changing directions. While the wind at 250mb, as above, is coming from the southwest, winds at different levels of the atmosphere are angled at different directions. This is called vertical shear, and is something that can help a storm build upwards quickly, and produce twisters at the surface. The area bracketed by the blue has the greatest shear, and will move east into Mississippi overnight, following the storms.

There are already some bands of storms, though none of it yet severe, moving through Louisiana, and it looks like if any storms develop, they will be embedded within a line with rain falling around it. This is a typical mode for “Dixie Alley” where storms make themselves nearly impossible to find, not only by occurring in a tree filled environment, often at night, but also by usually falling in the midst of especially rainy thunderstorm complexes.

The NWS is calling for a chance for especially large and dangerous tornadoes tonight, potentially in Jackson, Natchez or Meridien, and it is important to stay vigilant as the storms develop and move into the area. There are no basements, generally, in Mississippi, so ensure a spot in a storm shelter if storms loom.

Storms will likely continue deep into the night, but the low across the center of the country will be too stretched to allow for things to continue far into Alabama or Georgia tomorrow. Additionally, there will be a pause in the rough stretch of weather, allowing Delta residents a chance to breath and recover, if necessary. Let’s hope it isn’t.