A forecast filled weekend is drawing to a close. Of course, we keep dancing around where the weather is at it’s most interesting. Utica will provide it’s own thrills, even if it doesn’t snow a foot and a half or bring severe thunderstorms.
At 1228AM, ET, Utica was not reporting an observation, however local sites were reporting temperatures near freezing, and a spot of precipitation was seen northeast of Herkimer, and was likely producing sleet and freezing drizzle, thanks to a slow moving warm front that lies between Syracuse and Skaneateles. The center of low pressure associated with this system lies over western Pennsylvania, and the frontal complex is going to continue to occlude, however there is heavy rain and thunderstorms still being generated at the heart of this feature.
The upper level trough is tilted aggressively within the mean trough which suggests that it will be unable to continue propagating with terrible alacrity. The heaviest precipitation will move through overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, with mostly heavy rain. The precipitation will lighten, but the cold air will finally cycle in overnight Monday into Tuesday. Light snow showers will be possible as the low languishes over southern Quebec well into mid week.
Tomorrow – Heavy rain, especially early, with a wintry mix late, High 46, Low 30
Tuesday – Light snow and overcast with some drizzle late, High 38, Low 31
TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with morning showers evolving to a steady, soaking rain in the afternoon High 46, Low 31
Tuesday – Cloudy with rain and snow showers early changing to mainly rain showers in the afternoon. High 39, Low 34
AW: Tomorrow – Strong winds gradually subsiding; rain and drizzle; strong winds can down trees and power lines High 49, Low 33
Tuesday – Cloudy with a couple of snow showers High 42, Low 33
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. High 46, Low 32
Tuesday – Snow showers likely, possibly mixed with rain before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, 42, Low 35
WB: Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms. Rain with freezing rain likely in the morning then rain in the afternoon. Ice accumulation around a trace. High 46, Low 32
Tuesday – Rain and snow showers likely. High 38, Low 33
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 46, Low 33
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix, High 42, Low 35
FIO: Tomorrow – Heavy rain until afternoon and breezy starting overnight, continuing until afternoon. High 53, Low 37
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 47, Low 39
Looks pretty gross, doesn’t it? Forecast.io is pretty optimistic on the temperature, so we’ll see if good thoughts lead to good weather. Here is the radar showing the blob off precip near Herkimer.