Tag Archives: Utica

Fuzzy Forecast

There was a big broad trough across the northern part of the US as September rolled into October. The trough brought cloud, cold temperatures and a lot of uncertainty, particularly in the Eastern Great Lakes. There wasn’t much rain with the feature, so it was tough to really put it in the forecast, and as a result, everyone who did put rain in the forecast for Utica had it on the wrong day. There was a only a trace of rain on Sunday the 30th, when it seemed like rain would be more likely on Saturday morning when the surface activity was more intense. Victoria Weather was more optimistic about the rain threat, and we had a top forecast for this amorphous blob of weather. 
Actuals: Saturday the 29th – High 63, Low 44
Sunday – Rain reported, not measured, High 61, Low 39

Grade: C-D

Utica, New York to Pascagoula, Mississippi

Let’s get our October started off right, and make our way from Upstate New York to southern Mississippi on a 2 and a half day journey across middle America. The trip will cover 1382 miles at a pace of 69mph. Days 1 and 2 will have a goal of 552miles, with day three shorter and allowing some beach time.

DAY ONE (Monday)

There is an orphaned band of precipitation at the southern flank of high pressure over the Great Lakes, and it will continue to present western New York with the threat for an isolated shower through most of the day. Even so, the ability to draw moisture towards the boundary is going to be compromised by undercutting troughs, and our route is likely to be mostly unoccosted, because the trough causing precipitation in New York will be slightly north of the New York Thruway. Certainly, by the time we pass Dunkirk, we will be out of the woods, and with that area of precipitation organizing around a developing wave around Lake Michigan, the drive through Ohio looks pretty good. We’ll call it a day around Midway, Ohio, which is Midway between Columbus and Cincinnati.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
As the wave in the Great Lakes moves east, it will collect a bit of moisture and dangle a weak line of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms through the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. It’s going to line up right along our route, and I-65 will be fairly damp through Kentucky and Tennessee. It should be a bit more stable by the time we reach Alabama, however, and the drive through the northern part of the state will be hot, humid but free of rain. We’ll end up in the Pelham area, which is a southern suburb of Birmingham.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
Everything is looking great for the southern US by mid-week. There is nothing on the horizon for southern Alabama, and if we see anything in Pascagoula, it will be a brief shower off the Gulf, but I’m not expecting even that. 

Utica, New York

Fall is certainly in the air for much of the country. In New England and the eastern Great Lakes today, though, the only fall people are worrying about is “rain fall”.

At 953AM, ET, Utica was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with overcast skies. Lower clouds were found to the east in the Hudson Valley, while the heaviest rain is found further east in New England. Guidance painted a very damp portrait of the day for Utica, but it looks like they will mostly dodge the significant wet weather. There are a few splashes of rain downstate that could afflict Utica later, but it looks like today will be better than expected. 
A strong upper level trough is sagging into the northern tier of states, but the northerly turning portion of the jet lies west of Utica, which will be good news for local residents not fans of the cold. Even better, the jet trough is forecast to recede to the north, rather than progress eastward, which will prohibit an attendant cold front from advancing towards the Finger Lakes. Instead, high pressure is on it’s way for the weekend in Utica. 
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 62, Low 50
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day High 61, Low 52
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies.  High 63, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – A passing morning shower; otherwise, partly sunny High 63, Low 51
Sunday – Clouds and breaks of sun High 62, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny,High 63, Low 51
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 63, low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A chance of shwoers in the morning. High 60, Low 51
Sunday – Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. High 60, Low 41

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 63, Low 51
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 63, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 65, low 49
Sunday – Partly cloudy starting in the morning. High 65, Low 42

Difference of opinions on the showers on Saturday, but I think it really is looking good. Take a look at this cool satellite image, where you can definitely make out the jet aloft over the northern US.

Winter’s last gasp

There have been a lot of false alarms, looking at the past few weeks, in which we said that winter was nearly through, but I think the system that rolled through the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic early last week was proooobably it. It clipped Utica, our forecast site way back when, and brought temperatures from comfortable spring time temperatures down to below freezing, with a smudge of snow. Victoria-Weather and Weatherbug were kindred spirits, drawing level on this forecast occasion.
Actuals: Monday (the 16th) – .35 inches of rain, High 46, Low 33
Tuesday – .03 inches of rain and snow, High 36, Low 30

Grade: B-D

Utica, New York

A forecast filled weekend is drawing to a close. Of course, we keep dancing around where the weather is at it’s most interesting. Utica will provide it’s own thrills, even if it doesn’t snow a foot and a half or bring severe thunderstorms.

At 1228AM, ET, Utica was not reporting an observation, however local sites were reporting temperatures near freezing, and a spot of precipitation was seen northeast of Herkimer, and was likely producing sleet and freezing drizzle, thanks to a slow moving warm front that lies between Syracuse and Skaneateles. The center of low pressure associated with this system lies over western Pennsylvania, and the frontal complex is going to continue to occlude, however there is heavy rain and thunderstorms still being generated at the heart of this feature.
The upper level trough is tilted aggressively within the mean trough which suggests that it will be unable to continue propagating with terrible alacrity. The heaviest precipitation will move through overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, with mostly heavy rain. The precipitation will lighten, but the cold air will finally cycle in overnight Monday into Tuesday. Light snow showers will be possible as the low languishes over southern Quebec well into mid week.
Tomorrow – Heavy rain, especially early, with a wintry mix late, High 46, Low 30
Tuesday – Light snow and overcast with some drizzle late, High 38, Low 31

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with morning showers evolving to a steady, soaking rain in the afternoon High 46, Low 31
Tuesday – Cloudy with rain and snow showers early changing to mainly rain showers in the afternoon. High 39, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Strong winds gradually subsiding; rain and drizzle; strong winds can down trees and power lines High 49, Low 33
Tuesday – Cloudy with a couple of snow showers High 42, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm.  High 46, Low 32
Tuesday – Snow showers likely, possibly mixed with rain before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, 42, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms. Rain with freezing rain likely in the morning then rain in the afternoon. Ice accumulation around a trace. High 46, Low 32
Tuesday – Rain and snow showers likely. High 38, Low 33

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 46, Low 33
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix, High 42, Low 35

FIO: Tomorrow – Heavy rain until afternoon and breezy starting overnight, continuing until afternoon. High 53, Low 37
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 47, Low 39

Looks pretty gross, doesn’t it? Forecast.io is pretty optimistic on the temperature, so we’ll see if good thoughts lead to good weather. Here is the radar showing the blob off precip near Herkimer.

Storms come roaring through

Last weekend was a pretty gross one around the Great Lakes, as an area of low pressure moved northeast towards Hudson Bay, Along with it came a cold front that brought severe weather to the Ohio Valley, and as the weekend wound to a close, it strafed the mid-Atlantic. Utica appreciated a last taste of summer before the boundary swept through Sunday evening, with temperatures touching 80 degrees before a line of thunderstorms charged through town, dropping a quarter inch of rain and contributing gusts that touched 45mph. With all this commotion, the NWS kept a level head and had a very good forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – High 69, Low 57
Sunday – .25 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 80, Low 55

Grade: A-C

Utica, New York

After the fire engulfed west coast, we are turning our attention to the Mid-Atlantic, which is in that nice period between incredible summer time heat, and oppressive snow storms. Nothing like that yet.

At 1253AM, ET, Utica-Rome was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with overcast skies. A strong, winter-like jet is rushing through southeastern Canada, inducing a southerly flow through the eastern Great Lakes, as well as a mid level overcast throughout western New York.
There is an area of surface low pressure in the exit region of the strong, 160mph jet streak in Canada, as well as a developing low in the base of the trough over central High Plains. A stationary boundary lies along the jet between the two features, and will begin to act as a warm front as the low in the Plains becomes more well formed tomorrow, allowing temperatures to warm up fairly significantly tomorrow afternoon. That will continue in earnest on Sunday through the early afternoon, before a gusty cold front moves in late in the day. The flow into the low will be from the southwest, which means most of the moisture will be lost and rainfall will be light, but the wind and subsequent drop in temperature will be quite noticeable.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 58
Sunday – Warm and windy, with thunderstorms late, High 81, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow -Areas of patchy fog early. Cloudy. High 70, Low 57
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will give way to cloudy skies and rain in the afternoon. High 79, Low, 52

AW: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness and warm with a shower in places High 72, Low 55
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, windy and very warm High 80, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy,  High 71, Low 57
Sunday – Partly sunny,  (late rain, thunderstorms) High 80, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. High 70, Low 55
Sunday – Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy, High 77, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Light rain, High 71, Low 56
Sunday – Light rain, High 80, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 58
Sunday – Rain starting in the evening. High 76, Low 60

I had to back my way into WeatherNation’s forecast tonight because their site is pretty unresponsive. It would be upsetting if they win, but their forecast looks strong. Here is the satellite, showing some clouds in the shadow of Lake Ontario.

Wintry end to the week

A cold front moved through New York over the last couple of days, and in Utica, they received a total of .86 inches of precipitation. Getting a healthy dose of ground moisture at the end of the fall is important for next summer. Of course, it is the end of the season, because mixed in with the rain were a few reports of snow after 2AM. There weren’t any reports of accumulations that I could find in Utica, but down the road in Oneida County, there were reports of 4 inches of snow. It came down to who had the best temperature forecast for verification purposes, though, because even though there was more snow than we thought, everyone had a mention of it. The Weather Channel was just a hair better than everyone else at every verifying time and took down the top spot.
Actuals: Thursday – .54 inches of rain, High 57, Low 36
Friday – .32 inches of moisture (snow and rain), High 37, Low 28

Grade: C

Utica, New York

Today’s forecast takes us to Upstate New York, where Utica is nestled snug in the Mohawk Valley. Let’s see how the first week of November is treating them!

At 8:53pm EST, the temperature at Utica, NY was 57 degrees with a light rain falling. A large cold front is sweeping through the Eastern US right now, with a very defined plume of precip stretching from the Gulf Coast up into the Northeast. The cold front will push through the region overnight tonight through tomorrow morning, with rain showers generally trailing off as we reach mid-morning. Most of the daylight hours tomorrow should be on the dry side, with maybe an isolated shower floating around here or there. Thursday night into Friday, the westerly winds behind the front will start kicking up some lake-effect action. While overnight it’ll be snow, the bulk of it should remain north of Utica, with just some periodic snow showers as the band wiggles north/south into the morning. Come Friday morning, some rain/snow mix is expected as temperatures warm up and precip eventually dies down as the activity pushes further to the north and eventually dissipates.

Thursday: Rain showers through morning, trailing off by noon. An isolated afternoon shower possible. High 53, Low 36.
Friday: Some early morning snow showers possible, but light. Changes to a mix mid-morning then dissipates. High 43, Low 33.

TWC: Thursday: Rain expected through the morning, becomes more scattered in afternoon. High 56, Low 38.
Friday: Mixture of rain/snow at times, generally light. High 42, Low 31.

AW: Thursday: Windy, morning rain trails off by midday. High 53, Low 37.
Friday: Some morning flurries, outside chance of mid-afternoon rain shower. High 45, Low 33.

NWS: Thursday: Rain showers expected through mid-morning then trails off. High 52, Low 36.
Friday: Early morning snow showers possible, mixing back to rain midday, some rain/snow mix late as well. High 43, Low 32.

WB: Thursday: Early morning rain, some scattered showers later. High 54, Low 36.
Friday: Early morning rain/snow mix. High ???, Low 34. (Their forecast page exploded, numbers for Friday were indeterminable).

Here we see rain showers skirting by Utica, giving the area a bit of a soaking as they move through tonight into tomorrow morning.