Fine times

You know, we talk a lot about how nasty the weather is in most of these posts, but let’s take note of how fine the weather was in Sacramento last week. We issued a forecast at the beginning of the week for Tuesday and Wednesday, and the weather was delightful. The forecasts were very good as well, with a triple threat tied for the forecast win: The Weather Service, The Weatherbug and The WeatherNation.
Actuals: Last Tuesday – High 78, Low 47
Last Wednesday – High 82, Low 52

Grade: A-B

Evansville, Indiana

I used to live in the northern part of Indiana (I went to school there) but I’ve never made it down to Evansville. One of my best meteorology friends is from Evansville, though, so maybe this forecast will get a cosmic boost because of that.

At 1154PM, CT, Evansville was reporting few clouds with a temperature of 57 degrees. The regime was mostly southerly, thanks to a warm front emerging on the Wisconsin/Illinois border. While the southerly flow is impacting Evansville now, the continued development of this feature will mean more significant weather later in the week. Notably, after a daylong warm up tomorrow, the cold front, materializing through the day on Tuesday, will arrive late in the evening. Rain and thunderstorms, some of which could contain hail or strong winds, will be possible.
After the front passes, the parent low will begin to occlude and meander through the Great Lakes as it takes a left turn towards eastern Canada. Rain will continue to wrap around the circulation, even as the cold front presses to the east. A positive benefit is that temperatures won’t dip too far on Wednesday, thanks to the cloud cover, but the steady light rain will make the day too gloomy to see that silver lining.
Tomorrow -Warm and mostly sunny, with strong thunderstorms possible late, High 76, Low 55
Wednesday – Heavy early rain, then mostly cloudy with rain possible through the day, High 62, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day (Late thunderstorms). High 76, Low 56
Wednesday – A steady rain in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon. Thunder possible High 64, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and breezy (dangerous thunderstorms late) High 73, Low 56
Wednesday – Cloudy, breezy and cooler with showers High 62, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, (storms late) High 74, Low 55
Wednesday – Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. High 66, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (late storms), High 73, Low 57
Wednesday – Showers in the morning then showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 64, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 74, Low 56
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy iwth light showers, High 66, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 55
Wednesday – Rain throughout the day. High 66, Low 50

FIO’s timing is slower and I fear that may do them in this forecast, but I always appreciate their temperature forecasts on non-standard days (which is what will happen on Wednesday). 24 hour highs and lows. A look at the satellite shows the remnant of an unmentioned area of low pressure. The real focus is the next one for Evansville.

No hick-ups

A large area of low pressure moving through your area is usually a recipe for a botched forecast. That wasn’t the case at the beginning of last week in Hickory, where as we issued the forecast, the western North Carolina town was at the beginning of what would be 7/10ths of an inch of rain. Despite that, forecasts for the two days were collectively very good. Maybe because the rain was over well before noon on Monday. Accuweather and the Weather Service tied for the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday – .7 inches of rain, High 68, Low 49
Tuesday – High 73, Low 45

Grade: A-B

Des Moines, Iowa

Hey, I know some people that live in Des Moines.

At 854PM, CT, Des Moines was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with clear skies. There was certainly a warm front just to the west, as even at this hour, Lincoln, Nebraska was sitting in the low 70s. Low pressure further to the south was intercepting any moisture, so the warm air will lift into Des Moines overnight without much impact.
The southern low will shift eastward and remain south of of the Hawkeye State. Some moisture folded into the feature will wrap back to the north during the day tomorrow and lead to overcast skies at times with some light drizzle. The feature will shift further east overnight Wednesday into Thursday, with dryer air building in for a sunny day on Thursday, though late in the day, another trough will begin to drift in from the west. This will be weaker, but with better access to moisture for the Des Moines area than the two features previously, and some late rain or thunder are possible Thursday night.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy to overcast, with a chance for drizzle. High 76, Low 48
Thursday – Very early and very late rain possible, but sunny during the day, High 68, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms High 76, Low 51
Thursday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny High 70, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then turning cloudy, breezy and warmer (Late rain) High 74, Low 50
Thursday – Some sun, then turning cloudy, breezy and warmer High 70, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Partly sunny, High 76, Low 49
Thursday – Mostly sunny (Late rain) High 70, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Warmer. High 71, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly sunny (thunderstorms early and late) High 69, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 76, Low 49
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 49

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 51
Thursday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 73, Low 51

Here is the night’s satellite, showing Iowa to be nice and clear tonight.

Coming Soon…

In the coming days, our forecast trajectory will take us into the mid-Atlantic and southern New England. We will also be sure to take care to discuss the ongoing spring severe season, which we will be reminded of, undoubtedly, in the next few weeks.

Barnstable, Massachusetts
Road Trip from Washington, DC to Barnstable

Road Trip from Rochester, New York to Charlottesville, Virginia

Hickory, North Carolina to Sacramento, California

I-40 runs all the way from North Carolina to California, and yet we will spend the first part of this trip getting up to I-80. The drive will be a 5 day excursion that covers 2,635 miles. Our 5 days will be evenly spaced at 527 miles a day. or rather just short of 66mph. We have some ground to cover, so we should probably get a move on.

Hickory, North Carolina

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
A weak tail of a cold front will be sweeping through the Appalachians overnight tonight. Could there be a little bit of mountain snow in the Appalachians. It will probably be only rain along our route through the mountains, as it will likely only be possible on the west side of the hills. Rain might be a possibility all the way to Crossville, but expect cool and dry air to move in by the late afternoon as we touch two more states, Kentucky and Illinois, where we will stop in Vienna, in far southern Illinois.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
A little bullet of low pressure is going to arise in the southern Plains and move through the central US. The warm front will be a traditional stratiform rain maker, just like we want to see in the spring and summer months. That is to say, no severe weather and no snow. We’ll be in the rain for most of the time spent in Missouri. Rain will lighten north of about St. Joseph but there will certainly be some lingering sprinkle activity north to Nebraska City, along the Iowa/Nebrasla state line.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
The weather will become more congested as we head west. Nebraska looks like it will be pretty OK as we move along I-80, but don’t be surprised if an emerging feature brings some light ran to our drive after we pass into Wyoming. We’ll make it to Turtle Rock in the midst of a National Forest between Cheyenne and Laramie.

DAY FOUR (Friday)
Some atmospheric troughing will continue over the Wyoming Rockies, and a splash of rain with maybe *MAYBE* some snow in the peaks will accompany our trip along I-80 in Wyoming. Utah will be a different story as the Great Basin will be bathed in sunlight. It will work out just so that our day will end in West Wendover, Nevada, right along the UTah border.

DAY FIVE (Saturday)
What better way to finish a long week of driving than with a bright, sunny drive without the threat for inclement weather. Truckee and Lake Tahoe can be a bear when the weather is active, especially this time of year, and we just won’t have anything to really worry about. Sunscreen, maybe, if you want to go out while you are in town.

Sacramento, California

Sacramento, California

We’ve been worried so much about what has been going on in the southeast lately, we haven’t even looked out west for a while. What is, exactly, going on in the West Coast?

At 1053AM, PT, Sacramento was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 58 degrees. A weak perturbation in the upper atmosphere is generating clouds over California, including some precipitation in he higher terrain, but there isn’t much support coming behind this feature. Clouds may take time clearing out, but a significant cool down and precipitation are not expected.
More concerted ridging will move into the area by midday tomorrow, rendering Tuesday a clearer and warmer day for the Capitol. There should still be some ambient cloud cover through the area on Wednesday, as a north to south jet will continue weakly along the Nevada-Utah border, and will likely provide, at the very least, some clouds on the eastern horizon for Sacramento
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy but clearing High 75, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. High 82, Low 78

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer High 77, Low 46
Wednesday – Beautiful with a blend of sun and clouds High 82, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – Mostly sunny,  High 83, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy, High 81, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 83, Low 51

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 48
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 53

V-W is a bigger believer in the threat for cloud cover. Below, take a look at how robust it is this morning. You can’t even make out the coast yet today.


A day after a tornado struck Monroe, Louisiana, and a few days before another round of severe weather swept through northern Louisiana, there was a respite. Temperatures were cool for this part of the world, especially in the spring, with highs never pulling out of the mid-70s and lows even dipping below 40 on Thursday morning. Forecasts were generally pretty good, but this was a fairly simple forecast. A benign forecast for benign weather when that is just what everyone needed. The Weather Channel and Accuweather had the top marks.
Actuals: Wednesday, High 64, Low 40
Thursday – High 74, Low 39

Grade: A-B

Hickory, North Carolina

It’s interesting that Hickory, NC is clearly the largest Hickory in the world, but the most famous is one in Indiana that doesn’t even exist.

At 1153PM, ET, Hickory was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with overcast skies. There were a few sprinkles around town, which was simply a the leading edge of what will be a rainy overnight. The heaviest rain still resided in South Carolina, but it was moving into the Tar Heel State. A strong area of low pressure has brought another day of heavy weather to the southeastern US, but will be pressed east and offshore before any of the worst of the weather can reach Hickory.
The center of low pressure is going to move towards the Carolina coast on its trek northeastward, with moist air advecting back to the west on the back and north end of the low. This will likely enhance the threat for precipitation through Monday morning, at least. The jet stream is running in parallel right now, and a trailing, still strong but less active system is traversing the Canadian Prairies. After Monday dries out, the second system will swing a cold front through the area that will help make things breezy, with a bit of a cool down Tuesday evening.
Tomorrow – Rain through the morning, then improving, High 68, Low 51
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, with increasing clouds late, High 71, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain early. Decreasing clouds with mostly sunny skies by afternoon. High 70, Low 49
Tuesday – Sunny. High 70, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of rain in the morning, then clouds giving way to some sun in the afternoon High 69, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy and pleasant High 72, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Occasional showers, mainly before 11am. Patchy fog before 10am. High 68, Low 49
Tuesday – Sunny,High 71, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Cloudy with showers in the morning then mostly sunny with a chance of showers in the afternoon, High 68, Low 51
Tuesday – Sunny breezy with highs in the lower 70s, High 69, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 68, Low 50
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain overnight and in the morning. High 69, Low 48
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 70, Low 45

There wasn’t rain before we started this forecast, but there is now, in Hickory. Looking at the radar, though, I think you can see that it was inevitable.

Hot stuff

Last Monday, we issued a forecast for Jacksonville, that took us through the middle of the week. Some other stuff has happened weatherwise since then. In Jacksonville, an aggressive surge of warm air indicated just what was available for the severe weather that was to come a few days later. Temperatures were, as a result, a bit warmer than most had on their forecast board. Weatherbug had two perfect forecasts, and hung tough thanks to their low temperature forecasts, and snagged the top forecast before all the weather went to hell not far from there.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 85, Low 68
Wednesday – .11 inches of rain, High 89, Low 68

Grade: B-C