Tag Archives: Prescott

Everything

It’s been a while since the western US saw anything resembling the system that slammed the west coast early this week. Partially because of this, we saw mudslides through terrain weakened by recent wildfires, record breaking rain in the Las Vegas area and a very diverse couple of days of weather in Prescott, for our forecast verification. After a trace of rain on Monday, Tuesday turned completely wild, with temperatures spiking in the low 60s again, allowing enough instability for thunderstorms. There was enough energy, though, that there were also snow showers by the end of the day, That’s a pretty crazy day for Arizona! The forecast wasn’t great, but Accuweather was able to separate from the crowd.
Actuals: Monday – Trace of rain, High 61, Low 35
Tuesday – 63 inches of precipitation High 61, Low 37

Grade C-D

Prescott, Arizona

Life takes us today to the piney portions of north central Arizona, and the town of Prescott. While we’re there, we will gain an appreciation for why this part of the state is so green.

At 253PM, MT, Prescott was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. As always, temperature trends were highly dependent on elevation, with Phoenix a solid 15 degrees warmer than Prescott despite a thin layer of clouds over the area.
A high amplitude pattern is in place from the eastern Pacific into the western United States, and through the day Monday, it will be high pressure in control. A strong area of low pressure will be sliding into the west coast of California at the same time, emerging from the Pacific. A warm front will slice through Arizona late on Monday evening, though it will be warm in name only, bringing some slightly cooler temperatures and a southwest flow off the Pacific, as well as a bit of light rain, mostly in the high terrain. The cold front will wait until the end of an otherwise dry Tuesday  to make its way into central Arizona.  Prescott will almost certainly stay warm enough to be snow free on Tuesday, but in the mountains outside of town, an inch or two can be expected.
Tomorrow – increasing clouds, light rain, High 58, Low 41
Tuesday – Rain returns late in the day, High 52, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower high 60, Low 38
Tuesday – Rain. High 52, Low  43

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 61, Low 36
Tuesday – Periods of rain; breezy in the afternoon High 54, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers after noon. Mostly cloudy High 57, Low 38
Tuesday – Showers likely before 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3pm and 4pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, High 53, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers in the morning. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 59, Low 36
Tuesday – Breezy. Rain showers likely in the morning. Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 55, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 58, Low 36
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 52, Low 44

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. (late rain) High 61, Low 39
Tuesday – Rain starting in the afternoon. High 52, Low 40

Not exactly the forecast one expects in Arizona, is it? Here is the current satellite imagery, in which you can see some of those clouds down by Phoenix.

Warm Winners

The forecast for Prescott was pretty clear-cut, lots of sun and pleasant temps. AW and VW had slightly warmer temps than the rest, which led to an easy 1-2 finish, with AW nosing out the victory.

Monday: High 81, Low 48.
Tuesday: High 79, Low 50.
Forecast Grade: A

Prescott, Arizona

Today we head off to the Desert Southwest, seems to be the only place that’s been quiet these last few days. Will they continue to be so or is a pattern shift in the cards for them?

At 915pm MST, the temperature at Prescott, AZ was 57 degrees under fair skies. A fairly quiet pattern continues over AZ on Monday as a large front/upper trough pushes through the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies and pushes its way down over the Great Basin by early Tuesday. That’s as far south as it’s going to make it, however, as it stalls out over Southern NV/Utah. Central Arizona will remain fairly quiet and warm throughout the next couple of days, with perhaps a hint of briskness in the air during the morning.

Monday: Sunny. High 80, Low 50.
Tuesday: Continued sunny. High 81, Low 51.

TWC: Monday: Sunny. High 78, Low 52.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 77, Low 53.

AW: Monday: Sunny and pleasant. High 82, Low 48.
Tuesday: Plenty of sun. High 81, Low 49.

NWS: Monday: Sunny. High 78, Low 47.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 77, Low 48.

WB: Monday: Sunny. High 78, Low 49.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 76, Low 49.

WN: Monday: Sunny. High 79, Low 46.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 79, Low 46.

FIO: Monday: Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 53.
Tuesday: Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 54.

Here we see, well, pretty much nothing. It’s quiet. Pretty neat to see the Grand Canyon though!

Prescott, Arizona to Couer d’Alene, Idaho

Today we embark on a 1,300-mile road trip, from central Arizona northwards to far northern Idaho. Not very often we take a road trip through the Rockies that goes south-north! Let’s see what the next few days have in store for the Western US!

DAY ONE

Monsoon season is in full-swing over the Southwest US, with plentiful afternoon thunderstorms popping off over the mountain ranges throughout Arizona and southern Utah. Dry weather should greet us to start the day as we head out of Prescott and persist throughout much of northern Arizona. By early afternoon, as we make our way through southwestern Utah, we’ll have to start dodging some scattered cells that develop as we make our way along Hwy 89 and eventually to I-15, but the worst of the activity will be behind us over northern AZ. We might encounter a couple brief thunderstorms as we trek along I-15 in Utah before we finish our long day in Nephi, Utah.

DAY TWO

It will be another day of mostly due north driving all along I-15. There’s a weak boundary looking to push through MT into northern WY throughout the day, and with enhanced monsoonal moisture lifting through the Four Corners region today, we could see some widely scattered activity already festering around the Nephi area when we depart in the morning. It looks more like shower activity as opposed to constant thunderstorms, so not terribly much for us to worry about as we pass by Provo and eventually Salt Lake City. There could be a few scattered showers for us to negotiate through as we make our way into Idaho and eventually by Pocatello and Idaho Falls. North of there, dry weather should be expected the rest of the way as we head into Montana and finish the day in Butte.

DAY THREE

Today will be a short day and it’s just a couple hundred miles more to our destination, and with high pressure moving in over the Northern Rockies, our day should be stress-free! Weather-wise anyways.

It’s almost like they are in the desert

Temperatures in Prescott were more reflective of the vast deserts found throughout the region the past couple of days. That doesn’t seem like an unusual statement, but it sort of is. Prescott is in the higher terrain and is often much cooler than the desert valleys around Phoenix. Guidance suggested temperatures in the low 80s, and nearly every forecaster agreed that that sounded about right. When temperatures spiked at 87 each Wednesday and Thursday, well, that was a bit of a surprise all the way around, but particularly on Thursday, as most thought isolated thunderstorms would stifle those temperatures. Accuweather was the warmest forecaster on Thursday, and ended up as the best forecast overall.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 87, Low 51
Thursday – Trace of rain, High 87, Low 62

Grade: B-C

Prescott, Arizona

There isn’t much to worry about nationwide, so we’re going to a part of the country where there is even LESS going on.

At 653PM, PT, Prescott was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 73 degrees. Thanks to the machinations of the atmosphere of this part of the world, the dew point has climbed 10 degrees in the last hour, though there really isn’t a significant consequence expected because of this change.
The culprit is a change to a more southwesterly flow, based on a rapidly progressing upper level cyclone over the Pacific off the coast of the Baja. This feature is moving quickly to the northeast. The upper level feature will arrive on the coast of California tomorrow afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of Southern California tomorrow afternoon and evening. As the upper low moves further east, showers and storms are forecast to blossom over western and southern Arizona through most of the day on Thursday, but particularly in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, high 84, Low 54
Thursday – Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, High 81, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 86, Low 48
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Warm with the temperature approaching the record of 87 set in 1918 with plenty of sun High 86, Low 50
Thursday – Very warm with intervals of clouds and sunshine; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 83, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (late storms) High 84, Low 50
Thursday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11am. Partly sunny, High 80, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 50
Thursday – 40% chance of storms, High 80, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 84, Low 50
Thursday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 81, Low 52

FIO: tomorrow- Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 55
Thursday – Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 82, Low 62

VERY interested to see what happens with the temperatures, especially those lows. Individual guidance was quite cool, but the consensus runs were much warmer. FIO and V-W went a bit warmer. Cloud cover will be vital. There is a little bit of that tonight.
Prescott

Water in the desert

Prescott finds itself in the higher terrain of the Bradshaw mountains, and is officially in a “Mediterranean” climate. That means, every once in a while, it rains. The splash of rain from a thunderstorm on Tuesday was really only particularly surprising because nearly all thought that dry air was on its way, with an end to the periodic afternoon thunderstorms following suit. Nope! The Weather Service and their acolytes at Weatherbug were wary of the potential clearing, giving them the victory, predicting a very slight chance of rain very close to the Mojave.
Actuals: Monday – High 88, Low 63
Tuesday – .01 inches of rain in a thunderstorm, Hgh 86, Low 58

Grade: C-D

Prescott, Arizona

I’m not sure that Prescott has ever been a forecast destination here before. I hope they manage to live up to expectations.

At 612PM, PT, Prescott was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with a thunderstorm. Across Arizona, there were a smattering of thunderstorms, particularly at the higher terrain, as Phoenix and it’s local environs were dry, but places like Prescott and Winslow were reporting the thunderstorms. There is a deep upper trough over the western US, and it will help to direct flow towards the surface reflection, developing over the Upper Midwesty. Right now, the vigorous flow is playing a part in the activity across Arizona,.
Flow will be brisk and southwesterly through the day tomorrow, and it can’t be ruled out that there will be a stray thunderstorm across Arizona through the day tomorrow. The surface low will shift into Canada and dissipate, as will the upper trough. With a more relaxed flow at the midlevels over Arizona, the threat for thunderstorms will diminish in western Arizona. Convection will continue over the western New Mexico, but conditions will certainly dry out again in Prescott.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, High 85, Low 65
Tuesday – PArtly cloudy, High 83, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered Thunderstorms 84, Low 62
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 83, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – PArtly sunny, High 85, Low 63
Tuesday – Plenty of sunshine High 83, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11am. Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 63
Tuesday – A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms High 85, Low 63
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. High 84, Low 61

WM: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 84, Low 63
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny with Isolated Storms High 84 Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until evening.High 87, Low 65
Tuesday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon.High 87, Low 63

And here we can see those widespread thunderstorms. They should pulse down fairly soon, I think. More of the same tomorrow.
Prescott

Clear skies win the day

Those mountains can be pesky, that’s for sure, but one thing rings true no matter where you are. If you have clear, dry air, the temperatures will fluctuate. So it was in Prescott, where temperatures hit peaks warmer than anyone though, and dipped cooler than all but one low temperature forecast. The extreme forecasters ended up with the top spots, as you might imagine. The National Weather Service was the most XTREME and thereby the most successful.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 52, Low 25
Wednesday – High 57, Low 23

Grade: B