Crisp mountain air

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Our forecast for Casper seemed simple enough. A town with the same name as a famous ghost right before Halloween, and high pressure firmly in place. Of course, it’s never that simple. Casper has nothing to do with the ghost, and is in the mountains, so even high pressure can lead to some tricky conditions! Winds were howling throughout the forecast period, which helped the daily delta in temperature grow beyond what most forecast outlets expected. Low temperatures even dipped below freezing on Monday! I’m not ready for that. The Weather Channel settled in with a comfortable victory.
Actuals: Sunday – High 68, Low 46
Monday – High 70, Low 30

Grade: C

Turning a corner

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The Florida Panhandle, many people will tell you, is more reminiscent of the deep south than of the touristy peninsula most of us have visited before. That extends to the heat and humidity of summer, and temperatures in the winter that are surprisingly cool at times. Tallahassee does have seasons, and autumn showed up during our forecast last weekend. Temperatures dropped from the upper 80s on Friday to the mid 70s for highs after a dry but clearly strong cold front swept through. That’s sweater weather for Floridians. It was also a W for Accuweather.
Actuals: Friday – High 88, Low 62
Saturday – High 76, Low 60

Grade: B

Big changes, but more of the same

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Our forecast in Allentown oversaw clearing skies and a warmup, with high temperatures from Sunday the 4th climbing 7 degrees to Monday’s high. This coincided with more sunshine, and evacuation of the light showers they had in town. There was one consistency, however, in that The Weather Channel continued their hold on forecasting supremacy that guided them through September.
Actuals: Sunday October 4th, .01 inches of rain, High 61, Low 54
Monday, October 5th, High 68, Low 50

Grade: A

Polo not to be found

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Before Isaias grabbed headlines in Florida, we were eying Polo in the eastern Pacific. The storm was projected to slide into the Southwest and pump moisture into the southern Plains. A couple of outlets thought the threat was great enough to include rain throughout the forecast for Sherman. Instead, one of the outlets, The Weather Channel, who kept the forecast dry on the 29th, put together a nearly perfect forecast and won the last forecast of September.
Actuals: September 28th, .01″ of rain, High 90, Low 70
September 29th, High 93, Low 73

Grade: A

Summer lasts a couple of days longer

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The summer equinox is in late September, which is when the calendar says the season has turned to autumn. Nobody told the Memphis atmosphere, however, and temperatures were in the triple digits on the 20th. It wasn’t much better on the 21st, with temperatures still in the mid 90s. For most, this was the biggest forecast flaw, as the cool down was not widely qccounted for. Accuweather had the top forecast, but scores were not great.
Actuals: September 20th, High 100, Low 73
September 21st, High 94, Low 70

Grade: C

Finding a groove in Williamsport

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I am not one for cold weather. I do like forecasting snow, but I don’t care for living in it. Midmonth in Williamsport would have been ideal for me, as it wasn’t unbearably hot, and still trending warmer. The trend was handled pretty well by everyone, but Clime handled it even better than the rest, securing the daily victory.
Actuals: September 15th, High 72, Low 47
September 16th, High 80, Low 57

Grade: A

Drop dodgers

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Our weekend forecast for Morristown earlier in the month, there was the threat for some isolated shower activity. Victoria-Weather was alone in keeping it out of the forecast on Sunday, but everyone called for something on Saturday. Morristown instead stayed dry, which also meant that it stayed warm. High temperatures were above forecast totals on each day of the weekend, which meant the top forecast went to the warmest forecast. That was the Weather Channel.
Actuals: Saturday, September 12th, High 84, Low 70
Sunday, September 13th, High 91, Low 66

Grade: C

This is an akward spot

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I’m not going to dance around things: Victoria-Weather smoked the competition in our forecast for Syracuse. Not even close. We picked up on something that nobody else seemed to pick up on: Flow behind a cold front was going to come right off the Great Lakes , which kept things nice and cool in Syracuse. Right off the Great Lakes. One them in particular.
Actuals: August 19th .02″ of rain High 82, Low 60
August 20th .01″ of rain, High 71, Low 57

Grade: C

Hot forecasting

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It was very warm in Jonesboro when we put together the local forecast. Temperatures were at or near the century mark both on the 12th and 13th, our forecast verification dates. Not only that, but 6/7 forecasters were able to keep their forecast to within 5 degrees of total error on the highs and lows for both days. The weather, and the forecasters were hot. Accuweather and Clime, even with these solid numbers, were able to separate themselves, and earned victory in northeast Arkansas.
Actuals: August 12th, High 99, Low 77
August 13th, High 100, Low 78

Grade: A