Summer makes it’s approach

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When we looked at Chico earlier this month, it didn’t appear that there was much of a trend, but when we bore out the actual verification numbers, it turned out that yes, there was a trend. From the 16th to the 17th it got a bit warmer, both during the day and during the night. It isn’t crazy hot yet, but this little window into April was a sign that it’s coming. WeatherNation ended up getting the top forecast, all by themselves.
Actuals: April 16th, High 75, Low 49
April 17th, High 77, Low 54

Grade: A-C

Not so bad on the coast

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It can be pretty muggy in south Texas, hotter than most of us northerners an even comprehend. A temperature of 83 degrees, though, is pretty palatable, even with some humidity. That’s where it sat in Victoria on the 14th and 15th if this month, an all together comfortable set of days in a part of the world that can be notoriously uncomfortable. It was a little uncomfortable as well for The Weather Channel, who won the day, but by a narrow margin.
Actuals: April 14th, High 83, Low 63
April 15th, High 83, Low 70

Grade: A-C

Florida’s best time of year

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Temperatures in the summer can be overwhelmingly warm in the Sunshine state, and in the winter, it gets a bit chillier than the natives can tolerate. In the spring, however, temperatures will b cool enough for anyone to sleep, and may not get to 80. That was what we saw in Palm Coast on the 5th and 6th of the month, Another nice thing about the time of year is that it is easier to leave rain out of the forecast because you can identify larger scale weather patterns. Comfortable temperatures and no rain? They should tell people about this place, they might want to vacation here. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel caught up to Weatherbug after a perfect day on the 5th, to end up with a three way victory.
Actuals – April 5th, High 75, Low 46
April 6th, High 66, Low 51

Grade: B

Way off the mark

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Last weekend, a system moved through the Great Lakes and eventually spiraled through the mid-Atlantic with a copious amount of rain falling around New York over the weekend. But we are here to talk about Columbus. In my forecast I noted that I thought Friday would be on the overcast side, and little did I know how thick those clouds would be. Temperatures were forecast to hit the low 60s on Friday, and they didn’t even get out of the mid-40s. I did say it would be warmer, and it was only 42 on Thursday! Ugh. There was a three way tie between The Weather Channel, Weather Service and Weathernation.
Actuals: Thursday – High 41, Low 23
Friday – .19 inches of rain, High 45, Low 29

Grade C-D

On the periphery

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I wrote a couple days ago about the severe weather outbreak in the middle of the country last week. It occurred just to the south of of our forecast site in Davenport. There wasn’t quite the same level of impact as Iowa as there was at points to the south, but there was certainly some impact. Thunderstorms started on Wednesday night and kept rolling through Thursday, bringing 2/3″ of rain throughout the two days of the forecast. It brought about a cool down as well, reminding all of us that, even though there were thunderstorms and 70s, it’s still only March. Victoria-Weather got the victory, edging ahead because of a splash of rain falling before midnight on Wednesday.
Actuals: Wednesday – .01″ of rain, High 71, Low 41
Thursday: .66″ of rain, High 55, Low 45

Grade: C-D

March melt down

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Last week was a warm one. It stood out in a summer of record heat across the world, and particularly in the Great Lakes region. Fond du Lac, our forecast city on Monday night, saw temperatures launch all the way into the low 70s on Tuesday, which even exceeded the expectations of our forecast outlets. Naturally, warmer forecasts had better scores, but curiously, the clouds were clear enough to allow for chilly overnight lows. As has often been the case this year, it was The Weather Channel who collected the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday High 71, Low 42
Wednesday – High 67, Low 31

Grade: C-F

One last chill before spring

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It sure seemed like the cold air that trailed last weekend’s winter storm is a last gasp of the winter, given how warm it is going to be this week. Peoria even had the dignity to be colder than forecasts originally indicated by a handful of degrees. One outlet pegged the high temperature forecast on both days, thanks to a cooler numbers than most of the other outlets (except Weatherbug, of course). That top forecaster was The Weather Channel.
Actuals: Saturday – High 45, Low 33
Sunday – High 49, Low 30

Grade: A – C

Should have trusted my gut

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I noted in my forecast that I admired the outlets that were leaving rain out of the forecast in Huntsville for Monday. I thought what was showing up in the model guidance was just an overzealous interpretation of the increasing clouds in the area ahead of a cold front and vorticity maximum along the Gulf Coast. I also (this time correctly) suspected that this vort max would reduce overall rainfall in Huntsville, drawing it all into the center of circulation. I should have trusted myself on both accounts, because it didn’t rain a drop on Monday. Not that getting it correct would have helped. Clime ended up winning this one.
Actuals: Monday – High 74, Low 54
Tuesday .07 inches of rain, High 64, Low 58

Grade: B-C

In like a Lion

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Birmingham was getting ready for a line of thunderstorms as we put our forecast together last Wednesday. After the line went through, temperatures were cooler and it was dry to end February. Things took a turn on Friday, when the next round of wet weather moved into town. This round brought about .8″ of rain, a not insignificant amount, and certainly a bad sign for the weekend. If one believes in omens, this must also mean that the month of March will be out like a lamb in Birmingham, so that’s a good sign, right? Victoria-Weather easily won the forecast.
Actuals: Thursday: High 50, Low 37
Friday: .81″ of rain, High 51, Low 45

Grade: A-D

Soggy conditions for NorCal

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Our forecast for Merced anticipated yet another round of wet weather coming into the West Coast. Unlike previous iterations of the relentless storms pounding the Pacific Coast this year, the emphasis of this storm was on the Sierra Nevada, where blizzard conditions shut down the region. Still, it was a healthy storm for Merced, where nearly an inch of rain fell in town on Friday. Despite all the headwinds against us as a community of forecast outlets (A large system moving into the west coast, with undulating terrain leading to unique microclimates), the numbers ended up pretty good for everyone, including a three way tie atop the leaderboard, from The Weather Channel, Weather Service and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Thursday – .02 inches of rain, High 66, Low 43
Friday – .97 inches of rain, high 59, Low 52

Grade: A – C