An important part of the winter cycle in the north is the storage of water in the snowpack that will sustain and help nourish the first buds of spring time. It has been a warm, dry winter in the mid-Atlantic, so the next best thing is rain, like what fell on St. Patrick’s day in Utica. They received over a half an inch of rain, with a mostly inconsequential spot of flurry activity on the Saturday after. Usually the rainy systems with changing precip types are calamitous in the temperature forecast, but perhaps with a bit of the luck of the Irish, forecasts were quite good all around. The National Weather Service gained the W.
Actuals: March 17th, .58 inches of rain, High 45, Low 32
March 18th, .05 inches of liquid in snow, High 38, Low 25
Fond du Lac was seeing the last few flakes of a weak snow system when we issued their forecast a week and a half ago. It snows in March, that’s not unusual. In fact, March is one of the snowiest months of the year for the north central US. What was unusual was that on Tuesday, temperatures dropped down to single digits, well below normal. Victoria-Weather had a chilly outlook, securing the victory for the home team.
Actuals: March 13th, .07 inches of liquid in snow, High 29, Low 19|
March 14th, High 31, Low 7
Our first forecast in the month of March went pretty well, frankly. There was a late developing, potentially virulent storm headed towards the Great Lakes that lead to an array of precipitation forecasts in Michigan City. In the end, on March 9th, Michigan City saw precipitation in the evening, which changed to all snow quite quickly. This happened sooner than anticipated, but it wasn’t doom and gloom for most of the forecasts, at least those that called for precipitation. The temperatures were baked in before the precipitation was expected, so for those that called for rain, the forecast worked well. Victoria-Weather started the month with a W.
Actuals: March 8th, High 46, Low 30
March 9th, Trace of precipitation, HIgh 43, Low 32
Back in Mid February, Greensboro was in the midst of a comfortable stretch of weather, at odds with what the calendar said. On the 20th and 21st, the weather was at the very least interesting. On the 20th, a splash of rain and a cold front meant temperatures were able only to reach 60 degrees. After that frontal passage, the high jumped to 73 on the 21st. Those highs and lows were both as low as (20th) and higher than (21st) all of the forecast highs. As it worked out, Clime was able to navigate their first forecast win, owing their victory to a dry forecast on the 21st.
Actuals: February 20th, .03″ of rain, High 60, Low 44
February 21st, High 73, Low 47
It’s been a rough winter for snow fans across a great deal of the country. Sure, here at Victoria-Weather HQ, we have been buried in snow, with more on the way, but even just as far south as Des Moines or east in Indianapolis, the winter has been paltry. So the snow that was received in Indianapolis back at the end of January, while it only accumulated to 1-4″ of snow in the metro, it was the biggest storm they’d seen to date or since in many spots. Fortunately, my misgivings about Clime were for naught, as they tied for the top spot with the Weather Channel.
Actuals: January 25th, .73 inches of liquid in rain and snow, High 38, Low 32
January 26th, .11 inches of liquid in snow, High 32, Low 24
Austin stayed on the cooler end of the spectrum after our forecast last week, even as low pressure in the Southern Plains emerged and started drawing warm air to the north. It did get quite a bit warmer, but not to the level some of our outlets expected. Nearly all errors were because the forecast was too warm, and the warmest forecast belonged to newcomer Clime, and as a result were the lowest total, while Victoria-Weather, the coolest ‘cast, earned a solid victory.
Actuals: January 14th, High 65, Low 34
January 15th, High 72, Low 47
Many lamented the loss of Forecast.io across the internet, and perhaps in honor of their impending retirement, Forecast.io did better than normal. That is to say, they finished in a tie for 4th. Lewiston withstood a Pacific storm that brought precipitation to the Cascades and Northern Rockies, and eventually to the middle of the country. Lewiston only had about an eighth of an inch of rain between the two days of our forecast period at the end of the year, and temperatures lingered just below 50 degrees. All told, it wasn’t nearly the story seen outside of the region between the Ranges. The Weather Channel rang in the new year with a victory.
Actuals: December 30th, .04 inches of rain High 50, Low 37
December 31st, .09 inches of rain, High 46, Low 36
Grade: A- C
Merry Christmas! Here in South Florida, temperatures haven’t climbed above 60 since we arrived, temperatures which rival those of our forecast for Goldsboro back in the middle of the month. It’s colder there now, but on the 13th and 14th, temperatures lingered in the mid to upper 40s for highs, and dipped below freezing in the mornings. It seems like this might end up being Forecast.io’s last victory. End of an era.
Actuals: December 13th, High 48, Low 30
December 14th, .01 inches of rain High 46, Low 27
The threat for rain was introduced in every forecast for Durham back in the first week of December, but It held on to the very end of the forecast period. This allowed forecasters who skewed to a warmer forecast to get a a little bit closer to that perfect forecast. The warmest outlet of them all was Victoria-Weather, and our forecast turned out to be very good.
Actuals: December 5th, High 55, Low 31
December 6th, .08 inches of rain, High 60, Low 48
Everyone knows that it’s getting colder when December rolls around, so to start the month with a forecast that feature descending temperatures is insult to injury. It’s made worse by forecasts being warmer than what ultimately verified, as was the case in Tulsa at the beginning of the month. A cold front that was unencumbered with moisture brought brisk winds and chilly temperatures progressively through our forecast period. It started colder than expected and stayed that way. Accuweather had the best line on the chilly weather, not that it was a great forecast.
Actuals: December 2nd, High 59, Low 44
December 3rd, High 43, Low 29