Cooler air slogs into central Illinois

A big blob of rain, with a few thunderstorms embedded within a big swirling low inched towards Decatur late last week. Since late Wednesday night, that rain has made it as far as the Great Lakes. So it rained in Decatur during our forecast period of Thursday and Friday, but the radar was less and less intense as time went on, and temperatures dropped off to become seasonable, and eventually, below normal. If there was a silver lining to all the clouds, it was that forecasts for the region were pretty good. gets top marks.
Actuals: Thursday – High .09 inches of rain, High 79, Low 60
Friday – .13 inches of rain, High 63, Low 51

Grade: A-C

Soggy start to April in Boston

Our last post of March was actually a forecast that covered the first couple of days of April in Boston. I have to say, it is not weather that I would have enjoyed. After a very rainy start to the month on the 1st, temperatures struggled to even reach 40 on Friday the 2nd. If there was a silver lining, it certainly wasn’t for Bostonians, but rather for Victoria-Weather, who easily won the day.
Actuals: Thursday, April 1st, .98″ of rain, High 58, Low 36
Friday, April 2nd, High 40, Low 29

Grade: A-B

A District drenching

March went out like a lion in the mid-Atlantic. A batch of low pressure that emerged from the Smokey Mountains invigorated some moisture in the region, and there was nearly an inch of rain in Washington on the last day of the month. With all those showers, the temperature dispersal was fairly minimal last Wednesday, The top forecast was held by Accuweather, who correctly foresaw the gloomy end to the month.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 69, low 46
Wednesday – .92 inches of rain, High 65, Low 56

Grade: B -C

A quick turn around

A little over a week ago, we took a look at the weather in Sacramento, which was at the tail end of a nasty couple of days. The culprit was a broad area of low pressure that would end up moving into the southern Plains and bringing a tornado outbreak to the southeast late this week. Things bounced back very quickly after one last murky day on Thursday. The high temperatures jumped more than 10 degrees from Thursday to Friday, setting up a nice weekend. Accuweather grabbed a narrow victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 58, Low 36
Friday – High 69, Low 35

Grade: B-C

All of the cold, none of the snow

Last Wednesday, when we were looking at Colorado Springs, we checked out the radar. Flurry activity stayed in the Denver area, north of the Palmer Divide. This topographic barrier slowed precipitation, which was mighty, in the Denver area through the end of the week, as a nother round of wet weather descended upon the Plains. Mind you, it eventually did bring Colorado Springs quite a bit of nasty weather, but that was on the weekend, after the forecast period expired. There was a little spritz light wintry weather on Friday night, but not the deluge expected for late week by some outlets. Temperatures stayed much cooler than anticipated, which is a flaw that can show up in the Rockies. That’s just the way it goes. The Weather Channel was the top forecast, but it was rough.
Actuals: Thursday – High 38, Low 25
Friday – .03 inches of mixed precip, High 32, Low 27

Grade: B-F

Clear skies, crisp temperatures

When you are working with clear skies in the Plains, you might expect to have a pretty easy forecast. Even with low pressure moving towards Topeka late in the forecast period last week, it was the first day of our forecast period that proved toughest. Those clear skies brought temperatures all the way down to 29 degrees by Wednesday morning, which was a solid 5 degrees colder than anyone prognosticated. The Weather Channel was the best aside from that blip that was on everyone’s ledger, as they accurately had the warmest high temperature forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 72, Low 29
Thursday – High 72, Low 30gradec

Grade: C – D

Waterlogged western Maryland

I wrote recently about the flooding in eastern Kentucky and across West Virginia. Western Maryland, and specifically the city of Cumberland, for which we had a forecast last week, didn’t avoid the persistent soaking rains either. On the last day of February, Cumberland endured daylong rain that accumulated to over an inch. Fortunately, reports of flooding in Maryland weren’t as prolific, but this was enough rain to cause concern. Weatherbug was the top forecast for the end of the month.
Actuals: Saturday – .03 inches of rain, High 47, Low 25
Sunday – 1.21 inches of rain, High 47, Low 40

Grade: C-D

In the mix

The end of February saw another, somewhat repetitive pattern, with perturbations emerging from the southern Plains and heading for the eastern Great Lakes. It happened more than once, including early last week when we were forecasting in Ocean City, New Jersey. It was about to rain on Sunday night when we looked at the forecast, and to the surprise of a few, that rain mixed with snow on Monday morning. It was more rain than snow, however, and nothing accumulated as the day wore on. Ultimately, it was a tied forecast win for and Victoria-Weather. I had a typo in my forecast, so I am ok letting FIO have the plaudits on this go-around.
Actuals: Monday – .46″ of rain, High 45, Low 31
Tuesday – High 51, Low 35

Grade: B-C

The Road Back

It was a really tough middle of February, but late last week, the recovery and a look towards spring began. We put together a forecast for Gulfport, which, even along the Gulf Coast, endured unusually cold weather. They started bouncing back on Friday and Saturday, however, with temperatures almost touching 60 on Saturday. It’s not warm, especially in southern Mississippi, but it was getting there. To go along with the positive vibes, there was a three way tie atop the leaderboard. Accuweather, Weatherbug and secured the top spot.
Actuals: Friday, High 56, Low 33
Saturday – 57, Low 28

Grade: B-C

Unrelenting flurries

Snow was reported sporadically for the first 36 hours of the forecast period in Utica. The grand total accumulation was about 2 hundredths of an inch of precipitation, which is probably less than half an inch of true accumulation. Downwind of the Great Lakes, that practically qualifies as a no snow day. Temperatures were a challenge, cooling more than expected on Saturday. Ultimately, Victoria-Weather continued our winning streak.
Actuals: Friday, Snow reported, not measured. High 28, Low 21
Saturday – .02 inches of snow, High 28, Low 7