Cool and Cruisin’

Utica got the slightest bit of rain Monday morning as dissipating activity gave the city just enough to nudge the rain gauge. The rest of the day and Tuesday was fairly pleasant, though the morning lows were a smidge lower than most expected. Us here at VW anticipated that, however, and rode those cooler morning lows to an easy victory.

Monday: 0.01″ in a morning shower. High 82, Low 64.
Tuesday: High 82, Low 57.
Forecast Grade: A

Rochester’s riches

Thunderstorms generally aren’t as widespread in the northern US as they are in the southeast this time of year, and that is a forecasting lesson I would do well to remember next time. There were storms on Monday in Rochester, just as was universally predicted, but none on Sunday, which only one outlet had left in the forecast. Oops! It was a good forecast all the way around, though, and Rochester was able to enjoy a pretty decent weekend.
Actuals: Sunday, High 83, low 64
Monday – .55″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 85, Low 66

Grade: A-B

Popocatello

Popocatepetl is a volcano in Mexico. Pocatello was a white hot city in Idaho last week. Popocatello is a portmanteau by a meteorologist who thinks he is funny. Victoria-Weather thought it would be even warmer in Pocatello as July faded to it’s conclusion than it actually was, but we still managed to collect a much needed victory.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 93, Low 55
Wednesday – High 93, Low 54

Grade C

Sumter is not Florence

I don’t know what happened to Weather Underground, our traditional source for verification information. This time around, the problem was attribution. They kept reverting back to weather information for Florence when I sought info on Sumter. It’s too bad for us, because we verified better against Florence’s figures. When running the correct verification, Victoria-Weather fell off, and the cooler numbers in the afternoon, with cooler overnight lows gave the win to the trio of Accuweather, The Weather Service and WeatherNation
Actuals: Friday (the 26th) High 86, Low 68
Saturday – High 90, Low 64

Grade: A-B

An ineffective cold front

Back in mid – July (that’s how far behind I am on these verifications) we looked at the western Michigan town of Muskegon, which was to receive a healthy wallop from a mass of storms moving through Minnesota and Wisconsin. Those storms proved stronger than expected in the Upper Midwest, and generally lasted longer in Michigan than anyone thought. What really surprised all outlets was how little the high temperature was impacted on Sunday the 21st. After a high of 89 on the 20th, it only dipped to 87 for a high on Sunday. Not really a terrific forecast, but not really terrific weather, either.
Actuals: Saturday – .51 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 89, Low 71
Sunday – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 87, Low 69

Grade: C-D

Always bet on thunderstorms

That’s generally the rule of thumb for forecasting in Florida, especially in the summer months. Last weekend was our valid time for our forecast for Deltona, and there were a handful of outlets that unconscionably left rain out of the forecast one one or both days. Mistake. Because we stuck to our mantra, we won the forecast despite some pedestrian temperature forecasting.
Actuals: Friday – .36″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 95, low 75
Saturday – High 93, Low 75

Grade: B-C

It’s the nights that are oppressive

A lot was made of the heat indices in the 110’s across a broad swath of the Plains east through the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic, but Huntsville is at higher elevation, and was battling an area of low pressure that was bringing clouds to the region and some spots of rain near (but not in) Huntsville on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures, as a result, barely scraped 90. Still hot, but not as hot as it could have been. The problem was overnight, when lows were in the muggy low 70s. That’s tough, as the body can’t cool down and recharge, and is an underrated danger of heat waves. As for the verification of Thursday’s forecast, there was a quartet of forecasters on level pegging: Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel, Accuweather and Forecast.io.
Actuals: Friday – High 90, Low 73
Saturday – High 88, Low 72

Grade: B-C

Tyler stays clear

There had been some concern that the general instability of the season left Tyler, Texas prone to an isolated thunderstorm on Monday, as flow started to get drawn towards what would ultimately become Barry. It never came to pass, however, with a hot, sunny Texas day to start the week. Tuesday was also hot, sunny and Texan. WeatherNation eked out a solo victory, nipping a handful of other outlets for the victory.
Actuals: Monday – High 94, Low 76
Tuesday – High 93, Low 76

Grade: A-C

Just another day in Southern Mississippi

First the good news: there were no thunderstorms last Wednesday or on the 4th of July for the city of Gulfport. Now the bad news: it was really stinkin’ hot. Low to mid 90s in the afternoon, and a low of 75 each morning. I hope the air worked for locals, or at least they have grown accustomed to sweating through the night. Accuweather had a dry forecast and the second best temperature forecast, which meant they started July off on a good note.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 92, low 75
Thursday – High 94, low 75

Grade: A-B