Victoria-Weather stumbled on the forecast high last Friday in Toledo, but we came in hot for the Saturday morning lows and totally redeemed ourselves. Or should I say, we came in cold, remembering what happens with clear skies overnight, especially when coupled with a north wind. The low was even cooler than we forecast, but we had the coolest morning low on Saturday, allowing us to catch up with The Weather Channel and Accuweather, who were a bit better on that Friday high, for a three way draw.
Actuals: Friday, High 59, low 36
Saturday – High 65, Low 35
Grade: B – C
Last weekend was a wet one in New England, and then, perhaps you heard, there was a ‘bomb’ cyclone later in this past week. As is often our luck, when we pulled the forecast for Boston, we found it between the two wet and windy spells. Temperatures were comfortable, especially without wind or rain. Speaking of comfortable, Victoria-Weather won this forecast… comfortably.
Actuals: Sunday, High 67, Low 53
Monday – High 64, Low 52
Grade : A-C
The weekend forecast for College Station, TX was pretty straightforward: Hot and dry. That’s pretty much how it panned out as well. The only hitch in the forecast’s giddy-up was that the overnight lows were just a smidge higher than some had expected. Oh well, I doubt too many people were complaining about it being 74 instead of 72. Weatherbug narrowly edged out NWS/WN for the victory.
Saturday: High 97, Low 74.
Sunday: High 94, Low 74.
Forecast Grade: A
Usually, when you think of mountains, you think of snow capped peaks and chilly air. In Greensboro last week, they were directly responsible for temperatures not cooling off as quickly as it could have. cold air was rushing south from the Great Lakes, but got hung up in the mountains. Southerly flow with humid air produced clouds and a bit of rain that certainly allowed for a cooldown, but not quite on the order forecast by our model guidance for Friday. Weatherbug had a blend of a good temperature forecast, and were one of only three that had rain in the forecast on Thursday.
Actuals: Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 95, Low 72
Friday – .01 inches of rain, High 82, Low 72
We took a look at the central Valley in California early last week, and it was a pretty tough verification. Not, perhaps, in the way you think. Fresno wasn’t going to see much weather, and it’s position on the west coast led the lot of us forecasters to rely heavily on model guidance. As a result, there was a FIVE way tie at top of the leaderboard, and the other two outlets, The Weather Channel and Weatherbug were only a degree behind. The trend was for a cooler Tuesday than models indicated, so the forecasts were consistent, they were consistently too warm.
Actuals: Monday High 102, Low 72
Tuesday – High 99, Low 70
The forecast in Monroe seemed promising. There was a little bit of rain in the early part of Wednesday, but then the heat was supposed to break. It certainly did not. Instead, high temperatures remained in the mid 90s, which was just as hot as it was before a weak cold front slid through. The National Weather Service and Weathernation weren’t optimistic about a cool down, and ended up claiming a forecast victory.
Actuals: Wednesday – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 95, Low 72
Thursday – High 95, Low 70
Everything is bigger in Texas, or so they say. The temperature readings were pretty huge in San Antonio on the 19th and 20th, with the highs reaching triple digits on the 19th, and the upper 90s on the 20th, all while failing to dip below 80 for the overnight lows. That is a big time heat wave. Forecasts all circled the same numbers, so there wasn’t much separation, but a nearer high on the 20th gave Weatherbug the victory.
Actuals: August 19th – High 100, Low 80
August 20th – High 97, low 80
Utica got the slightest bit of rain Monday morning as dissipating activity gave the city just enough to nudge the rain gauge. The rest of the day and Tuesday was fairly pleasant, though the morning lows were a smidge lower than most expected. Us here at VW anticipated that, however, and rode those cooler morning lows to an easy victory.
Monday: 0.01″ in a morning shower. High 82, Low 64.
Tuesday: High 82, Low 57.
Forecast Grade: A
The forecast for Birmingham was a fairly straightforward one, dry and HOT. Which is was, no doubt about that. The morning lows were a couple degrees cooler than most had anticipated however, which lead to some higher than average scores given the comparatively benign pattern. NWS and WeatherNation split top billing.
Friday: High 98, Low 67.
Saturday: High 100, Low 67.
Forecast Grade: B
Thunderstorms generally aren’t as widespread in the northern US as they are in the southeast this time of year, and that is a forecasting lesson I would do well to remember next time. There were storms on Monday in Rochester, just as was universally predicted, but none on Sunday, which only one outlet had left in the forecast. Oops! It was a good forecast all the way around, though, and Rochester was able to enjoy a pretty decent weekend.
Actuals: Sunday, High 83, low 64
Monday – .55″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 85, Low 66