12:03AM: Much coffee will be enjoyed in Minneapolis this morning. Radar just after midnight from the Twin Cities
Updates 7/7
Winning a home game
Minneapolis is presently just outside of the heat dome that has cooked so much of the southeastern US. The heat hadn’t really even started to build back on the 24th and 25th of June, when we put together a forecast for the home metropolitan area of Victoria-Weather, and temperatures didn’t get out of the 70s. It led to some misty mornings, but the rain had already shipped out of town, and we saw a rare low in the 50s on the 25th. Brr? As you may have suspected, Victoria-Weather was the top outlet, and ended up winning the forecast.
Actuals: June 24th, High: 78, Low 61
June 25th: High 72, Low 51
Grade: B
The heat always wins
We looked at Longview in the middle of the month, when east Texas was in the midst of a stormy pattern. We expected that pattern to continue, and for a bit of cooler air to funnel into the region. At the very least, it seemed like overcast skies would conspire to keep it cooler. Not so much. In fact, the day with the most rain, Saturday the 20th, was also the day with the warmest temperatures. Temperature forecasts were not great, overall, but they were passable. The real differentiator, though, was the spot of rain seen early on Sunday. The top spot belonged to a trio, Victoria-Weather, Accuweather and Clime. I did forget to add the forecast for WeatherNation, so they get the consensus numbers. Sorry, WeatherNation.
Actuals: June 20th, .55″of rain in thunderstorms, High 89, Low 74
June 21st, .01″ of rain, High 87, Low 75
Grade: C
Blowing through
It’s been a stormy June, and even now, it remains stormy between the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. We had a forecast last week for South Bend, which looked like a couple of days that were going to be stormy. In the end, only Thursday saw storms (though rainfall was not quantified through our monitoring station) that had nearly severe winds. Accuweather had the only correct rain forecast, which lined up with a top temperature forecast. Temperatures on Thursday were held in check by the stormy activity, which kept scores down.
Actuals: Wednesday, June 10th, High 90, Low 71
Thursday, June 11th, High 84, Low 65
Grade: C
Updates 6/21
12:20AM: Like I said earlier, happy Father’s Day! If you are looking for information on our most recent forecast city, I can tell you that things are going extremely quietly for Longview, as east Texas is completely unbothered by showers or storms. Will that hold? Not for the whole region, but maybe in Longview, specifically!
Memorial Day sunburn
We took a look at Houston for our most recent forecast, which happened to present a forecast that fell over Memorial Day. We are approaching the summer season for the Gulf, which often means coastal showers and storms on most afternoons. I’m a proponent of including showers and storms in most forecasts down there, because that is often how it is going to turn out. Most everyone agreed with that line of thinking, but The Weather Channel boldly opted to leave precipitation out of the forecast. On this day, none of the rain hit the station at Houston, which turned a Victoria-Weather victory to a Weather Channel one.
Actuals: May 24th, High 86, Low 68
May 25th, High 88, Low 73
Grade: B
Happy to be off
We put together a forecast for Jacksonville early in May, and a couple of sources, including Victoria-Weather, thought the shower and storm activity in the area might indicate that there would be a recurrence the next day. This didn’t happen. Ultimately, that wasn’t the thing that turned the tide for anyone, but I think most in Duval County were happy for a rain free couple of days before it gets too hot. The Weathers Channel and Service drew level with good temperature forecasts, but the consensus was best of all
Actuals: May 17th, High 86, Low 75
May 18th, High 84, Low 70
Grade: A
Run down and rainy
Our first forecast of May was for Alabama. Anniston was awaiting a boundary with showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately for some temperature forecasts (i.e. the warm ones), clouds preceded the thunderstorms and kept temperatures on the 6th from reaching their maximum potential. Fortunately, this did suppress the severe threat in northern Alabama, which mean Anniston got a good soaking, but avoided the nastiest of it. Accuweather had the forecast of the day, nailing the temperatures on the 7th.
Actuals: May 6th, 1.18″ of rain and thunderstorms, High 77, Low 61
May 7th, .18″ of rain, High 71, Low 56
Grade: B
Fog and mist
Our forecast for Brownsville was for hot, humid days over the weekend, which was expected to lead to some morning fog, especially on the coast. Brownsville is further inland, but even there, the atmospheric moisture was so thick that the condensate was registered as .01″ of precipitation on Saturday. It was still plenty hot and plenty humid in the afternoon when the fog was burned off. There was a three way tie among our most unexpected trio: WeatherNation, WeatherBug and Clime.
Actuals: Saturday: .01″ of precipitation, High 88, Low 75
Sunday – High 90, Low 78
Grade: B
A muted heat wave
It was forecast to be quite warm last week in Fayetteville. Make no mistake, it was quite warm, but there were several degrees between what occurred and what still stands as records for the 14th and 15th of April. Accuweather in particular was feeling strongly that there was a chance for record temperatures, but the numbers skewed towards the lower forecast values. The top forecast belonged right here, at Victoria-Weather.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 86, Low 59
Wednesday – High 90, Low 61
Grade B