Late evening what?

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If you go back and look at the forecast for Punta Gorda, you will see that, mysteriously, I said on the 8th it would be mostly sunny through the day, late evening…. and then I let it hang. If I had concluded that statement with “showers” or something like that, Victoria-Weather would have drawn level with Weatherbug for the forecast victory, but that wasn’t how it shook out. Instead, Weatherbug was the sole victor thanks largely to their uncomfortably warm low temperature forecast which matched the uncomfortably warm nights in Punta Gorda. Victoria-Weather would have been close if we’d employed the correct precipitation forecast, because we were the only outlet that anticipated how warm it would be during the day.
Actuals: July 7th, .01 inches of rain, High 95, Low 80
July 8th, .02 inches of rain, High 95, Low 81

Grade: B-C

An independent streak

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Our forecast for Utica fell over the Independence Day holiday, and called for a warming trend that would ultimately approach 90 on Friday. While it was a few degrees from 90 on Friday, it was actually warmer on the 4th than it was on the 5th. There was a splash of rain in the morning, but not enough to alter anyone’s plans, so trips to the lake, runs through the sprinkler, or any sort of deck or patio based activities were on. Everyone had the 5th as the warmer day, so WeatherNation being among the warmer forecasts on the 4th and cooler forecasts on the 5th ended up claiming a victory.
Actuals: Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 87, Low 70
Friday – High 85, Low 69

Grade: C

It’s all day time heating

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Our forecast for Fairbanks late in June featured a pretty decent thunderstorm on the 21st. It resulted in about a quarter inch of rain, and the revelation to a few people, I’m sure, that there is thunder in the middle of Alaska. The low pressure that shifted out of the area allowed Fairbanks to see a bit more of the non stop daylight from around the summer equinox, and all that daylight pushed temperatures to close to 80. Victoria-Weather got the top forecast for the day, despite speculating on rain every day through the forecast.
Actuals: June 21st, .23″ of rain, High 75, Low 53
June 22nd, High 79, Low 51

Grade: B-D

Blistering

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Things have mercifully cooled off in the American Southwest since our forecast in Albuquerque at the beginning of the month (though fires still rage). Back then, there was hope for some isolated showers and storms by a few of our outlets, but they would not come to pass on the 7th or 8th of the month. This meant temperatures lingered unchecked in the upper 90s, with enough humidity to make New Mexicans especially uncomfortable. The splash of showers in the forecast, and the lack thereof in reality brought a couple of outlets level on this particular verification, with Clime and Accuweather having different precip forecasts and sharing a win.
Actuals: June 7th, High 97, Low 73
June 8th, High 97, Low 69

Grade: A-C

Springing a leak

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The verification in Killeen seemed to be perfectly in order. Victoria-Weather, in fact, ended up with only two degrees of error in the forecast. There were a few outlets that were narrowly off the pace, which would have been an A forecast for our group, if it weren’t for one thing. It rained on both days of the verification, and nobody had it in their forecast. Victoria-Weather ended up with the victory, but it wasn’t as gaudy as it could have been.
Actuals – June 6th, .02″ of rain, High 94, Low 72
June 7th, .01″ of rain, High 94, Low 72

Grade: C-D

Dry for a couple of days

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Houston has had a wet spring. It’s either been raining or it’s been excessively humid. Wet. For a couple of days in June, though, temperatures were hot, but not oppressive. It was humid, but it has certainly been worse. Many outlets still thought rain would be on the way during our forecast period at the beginning of June. Among those was WeatherNation. It didn’t rain on the 3rd or 4th, but that didn’t set WeatherNation back far enough to fall out of first place, thanks to a top notch temperature forecast.
Actuals: Monday June 3rd, High 88, Low 79
Tuesday June 4th, High 90, Low 81

Grade: A-C

A no frills cool down

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Temperatures cooled over our forecast period last week in Bend, and with that kind of a cool down, one might expect some showers or storms to go along with it. There were some, even some noted as being nearby last Tuesday, but nothing that actually fell in town, because Bend is in the rain shadow of the Cascades. It gets colder with cold fronts without the mess of a shower or thunderstorm! Victoria-Weather narrowly edged others in this forecast to earn victory.
Actuals: Monday – High 82, Low 43
Tuesday – High 68, Low 45

Grade: B-C

Being wrong, and making it interesting

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A thing that I often forget when forecasting in Cleveland, is that their official statistics are measured at Burke Lakefront Airport, and not Cleveland International. This makes a difference! Being by the lakeshore, especially earlier in the year, can keep temperatures cooler than they do further away from the Lake, and I was kicking myself as I came away from the forecast. I should have had lower temperatures! Imagine my surprise when everyone was at least 5 degrees off on the low temperature forecasts on both the 20th and 21st. The scores were all ultimately in the same ball park, so the real separator was Accuweather keeping Cleveland dry for the entire 48 hours, which didn’t seem right to anyone else, but alas, Accuweather blazed their own, victorious trail.
Actuals: May 20th, High 89, Low 72
May 21st, High 86, Low 76

Grade: C-D

Home field advantage

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Back before the weather and my personal calendar got really crazy, we put together a forecast for State College, the home of Accuweather. The way today’s weather looks, we might have called Tuesday the 14th, at least, a little chilly. When you compare it to the forecast put forth by many out lets, it was quite chilly. Even Accuweather was too warm with the forecast on the 14th (which was cooled by clouds and light showers) but perfection on Monday allowed them to claim half of the day’s victory with Clime.
Actuals: May 13th, High 75, Low 43
May 14th, light rain reported, not measured, High 64, Low 54

Grade: A – C

May starts hot

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We forecast for Goldsboro, North Carolina at the beginning of the month, and as soon as the third, we were anticipating a day that reached nearly 90 degrees. It was 89 degrees on the third day of the month, but an upwelling of moisture on the 4th made things stickier, cloudier and a little bit cooler. There had been a forecast for some rain in Goldsboro, and while it has been stormy in the last couple of days in North Carolina, on the 4th, it was not. The Weather Channel had the first top forecast of May,
Actuals: Friday, May 2nd, High 89, Low 64
Saturday, May 3rd, High 84, Low 68

Grade: B-C