Not Groton

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Norwich is several miles inland, however the official NWS reporting station for the site of our forecast at the beginning of the month is at the Naval base at Groton, which is definitely on the coast. Through some patterns, this doesn’t have a substantial impact. On August 5th and 6th, it was so dramatic it made me take into consideration the typically less reliable observation posts that don’t offer the official NWS read outs. I’m not sure they are fully correct, but I am sure they are closer to a fair representation for Norwich than Groton’s readings, which were a good 10-15 degrees cooler than all of the forecasts. So with that preamble, it stayed sunny, stayed dry and got pretty toasty in Norwich, and The Weather Channel was closest to the readings that I elected to reference.
Actuals (?): August 5th – High 89, Low 57
August 6th – High 92, Low 75

Grade: D

Season high

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I am willing to guess that the temperatures we saw in Fresno are going to end up being the warmest we see all year. On the 2nd and 3rd of the month, temperatures climbed to 106, which, as you may know, is quite warm. It was the rare forecast in which the consensus was actually the best forecast, as the various outlets darted around the verified numbers. Otherwise, it was a three way tie between the National Weather Service, WeatherNation and Clime.
Actuals: August 2nd, High 106, Low 70
August 3rd, High 106, Low 72

Grade: A

One for the Thumb

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When we forecast for Saginaw last week, there was a storm brewing in the Upper Peninsula. The storm waned overnight, and eventually had its last gasp around Oscoda, with the waning showers hitting the “thumb” of Michigan, east of Saginaw. Another round of storms brought a devastating tornado to Appleton, Wisconsin, along with some late showers and storms that did afflict Saginaw. Those storms did last a few minutes into early morning Tuesday, which really altered the picture for forecast winners and losers. The winner, in the end, was WeatherNation. OK, they would have won anyways, but it did make some mid-level forecasters drop off!
Actuals: Monday, July 27th, .21″ of rain, High 88, Low 68
Tuesday, July 28th, .08″ of rain, High 77, Low 70

Grade: C

This? This is just summer

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Have you heard about the heat dome? This has pushed hotter temperatures even further outside the typically warm parts of the middle and southern parts of the country, and nosing those warm temperatures up a couple of degrees. When we forecast for St. Joseph, however, the hot air wasn’t freakishly abnormal. It was in the low 90s in the afternoon, but surely there were complaints about low temperatures that remained in the mid to upper 70s. At least storms evaded the area, which meant temperatures were the only thing inhibiting sleep. Victoria-Weather picked up a victory in sultry St. Joe’s.
Actuals: July 18th, High 93, Low 77
July 19th, High 96, Low 76

Grade: C

And now, something completely different

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With the ongoing heat across much of the country, it seems almost cruel to revisit our forecast for last month in Bremerton. Wet weather was rotating through, with low pressure that became hung up in the Canadian Rockies. The rain was done by Sunday, the 28th, but temperatures along the Puget Sound were unable to clamber out of the 60s. How refreshing! Temperatures were all fairly even, but the Weather Service and Weathernation were square there, and with the precipitation forecast to earn a forecast tie.
Actuals: June 27th, .03″ of rain, High 65, Low 50
June 28th, High 65, Low 48

Grade: B

Winning a home game

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Minneapolis is presently just outside of the heat dome that has cooked so much of the southeastern US. The heat hadn’t really even started to build back on the 24th and 25th of June, when we put together a forecast for the home metropolitan area of Victoria-Weather, and temperatures didn’t get out of the 70s. It led to some misty mornings, but the rain had already shipped out of town, and we saw a rare low in the 50s on the 25th. Brr? As you may have suspected, Victoria-Weather was the top outlet, and ended up winning the forecast.
Actuals: June 24th, High: 78, Low 61
June 25th: High 72, Low 51

Grade: B

The heat always wins

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We looked at Longview in the middle of the month, when east Texas was in the midst of a stormy pattern. We expected that pattern to continue, and for a bit of cooler air to funnel into the region. At the very least, it seemed like overcast skies would conspire to keep it cooler. Not so much. In fact, the day with the most rain, Saturday the 20th, was also the day with the warmest temperatures. Temperature forecasts were not great, overall, but they were passable. The real differentiator, though, was the spot of rain seen early on Sunday. The top spot belonged to a trio, Victoria-Weather, Accuweather and Clime. I did forget to add the forecast for WeatherNation, so they get the consensus numbers. Sorry, WeatherNation.
Actuals: June 20th, .55″of rain in thunderstorms, High 89, Low 74
June 21st, .01″ of rain, High 87, Low 75

Grade: C

Blowing through

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It’s been a stormy June, and even now, it remains stormy between the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. We had a forecast last week for South Bend, which looked like a couple of days that were going to be stormy. In the end, only Thursday saw storms (though rainfall was not quantified through our monitoring station) that had nearly severe winds. Accuweather had the only correct rain forecast, which lined up with a top temperature forecast. Temperatures on Thursday were held in check by the stormy activity, which kept scores down.
Actuals: Wednesday, June 10th, High 90, Low 71
Thursday, June 11th, High 84, Low 65

Grade: C

Updates 6/21

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12:20AM: Like I said earlier, happy Father’s Day! If you are looking for information on our most recent forecast city, I can tell you that things are going extremely quietly for Longview, as east Texas is completely unbothered by showers or storms. Will that hold? Not for the whole region, but maybe in Longview, specifically!