Fog and mist

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Our forecast for Brownsville was for hot, humid days over the weekend, which was expected to lead to some morning fog, especially on the coast. Brownsville is further inland, but even there, the atmospheric moisture was so thick that the condensate was registered as .01″ of precipitation on Saturday. It was still plenty hot and plenty humid in the afternoon when the fog was burned off. There was a three way tie among our most unexpected trio: WeatherNation, WeatherBug and Clime.
Actuals: Saturday: .01″ of precipitation, High 88, Low 75
Sunday – High 90, Low 78

Grade: B

A muted heat wave

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It was forecast to be quite warm last week in Fayetteville. Make no mistake, it was quite warm, but there were several degrees between what occurred and what still stands as records for the 14th and 15th of April. Accuweather in particular was feeling strongly that there was a chance for record temperatures, but the numbers skewed towards the lower forecast values. The top forecast belonged right here, at Victoria-Weather.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 86, Low 59
Wednesday – High 90, Low 61

Grade B

A cool spring start in Baltimore

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Baltimore had about a perfect set of spring days. Sure, you could ask for temperatures to be a bit warmer, but in early April, 50s are perfectly reasonable. This was exactly what happened last Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures never dipped below freezing, but nights were still cool, and it didn’t get too hot. 50s, perhaps, are too chilly for residents of Maryland, but they sure have an fan club, and besides, warmer temperatures are going to be in place for the next several months. Speaking of drawing a fan club, three outlets drew level for this forecast: Accuweather, The Weather Service and WeatherNation had a collective win, but the consensus forecast was actually a smidge better than even them..
Actuals: Wednesday, High 51, Low 33
Thursday – High 59, Low 33

Grade: B

An A for the group

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Just before Easter, we went to the Central Valley of California. Visalia was warm, but clear overnight skies meant the weather was sleepable. Records were not ultimately set, which was how the official forecasts played out. There was a tie at the top between Accuweather and Clime, and a good score for everyone.
Actuals: Sunday, High 88, Low 49
Monday, High 87, Low 52

Grade: A

Better in force

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I wondered how often this would happen. With our first forecast in Madera, the best forecast belonged to… the consensus. The actual individual scores were all very close, with a high in the mid 80s on the 21st, and a cooler day with fresher air on the 22nd. Individually, The Weather Channel and Clime tied ahead of essentially everyone else, but were just a hair behind what you would have got if you averaged everyone out.
Actuals: 3/21: High 86, Low 63
3/22: High 84, Low 52

Grade: B

There are no losers here

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Between the uncharacteristic rains earlier in the year, but before the heat settled in to this part of the world, we took a trip to San Diego. The forecast was issued at just the right time, to capture postcard perfect weather. At the end of February and beginning of March, temperatures were starting to creep up there, which meant outlets that were on the warm side generally fared better. In this instance, it was the Weather Service who secured the top spot, but with conditions like these, nobody is even worried about those on the bottom — The weather would have been great if their forecast was perfect, too.
Actuals: February 28th, High 81, Low 62
March 1st, High 78, Low 56

Grade: B

Underdelivered

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At the beginning of February, we looked at the forecast in Janesville. From outlet to outlet, there were varying degrees of snow in the forecast for the 6th, from flurries to Clime calling for heavy snow. There certainly was snow in Wisconsin on that Friday, but none of it was reported in Janesville. It came down to temperatures, as it often does. The cool down was particularly well forecast across the board, however the warmth ahead of the snow was underestimated, leading to widespread forecast error. The real issue was how much the temperatures would cool that night, which meant that the warmest low temperature forecast ended up winning the entire forecast. The Weather Channel was the winner.
Actuals: February 6th, High 40, Low 18
February 7th, High 24, Low 9

Grade; C

Coming out of the deep freeze

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At the beginning of the month, we took a look at Ames, Iowa‘s weather. It was a towards the end of the prolonged icy grip on the middle of the country, and temperatures were trying to warm up a bit. The cold wasn’t ready to let go, however, and temperatures never breached the freezing line. The snow remained out of the picture, which was some modicum of relief, and with the benefit of hindsight, we can see that it eventually would get warmer in Ames. The forecast was interesting. The consensus forecast was nearly the best one, but WeatherNation ended up earning their own spot on top of the leaderboard.
Actuals: February 2nd, High 27, Low 21
February 3rd High 29, Low 16

Grade: B

Primed and ready

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As I noted in our discussion of the massive storm that came through last weekend, the region had aready been preconditioned, and was chilly, particularly for this part of the world. We saw that in the forecast for Rome, Georgia, which we issued the weekend before, and saw temperatures dive into the 20s, which is unusual in Georgia! Generally, though, there were a couple of times, the high temperature on Monday the 19th, and especially the low temperature on Tuesday the 20th, that were warmer than expected by a few degrees, Accuweather was the warmest forecaster on those two times, and came through with the win. Sidebar: I’m just now realizing our last two verifications were for Florence and Rome. How continental!
Actuals: January 19th, High 50, Low 27
January 20th, High 46, Low 27

Grade: C

The first wintry of blasts

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The weather has been so bad that even in this of all weeks, it has broken through as a major headline in many markets. A week and a half ago, we looked at Florence, Alabama, which was preparing for a cold front that would ultimately be a pittance to what was received this weekend. There was a quick shot of rain on the 14th, after which temperatures started dropping, though not nearly as quickly as some believed. It only got down to 35 before the 15th rolled around The sun was out for Florence, but it wasn’t working, and the high never cleared 40. It was a good forecast over all, with The Weather Channel earning the top spot.
Actuals: January 14th, .08″ of rain, High 50, Low 35
January 15th, High 39, Low 23

Grade: B