Surprisingly dry

I think a lot of people would look at the recent weather in Miami and would easily note the temperatures, which were cooler than one would stereotypically expect from Miami. The thing that struck me, however, was how low the dew points were. Residents accustomed to Miami’s climate probably needed to bust out the moisturizer as dew points dipped all the way into the low 40s. Accuweather had the best temperature forecast, and for our purposes, had the best forecast of the day.
Actuals: Tbursday, High 72, Low 59
Friday – High 78, Low 61

Grade: B-C

Not so bad

I am impressed. The forecast for Jackson was locked and loaded to be very difficult. A massive blob of uncomfortable low pressure moving through the Great Lakes was going to manipulate precipitation types and drive temperatures steadily downward… except for when there was an intrusion of warm air as the low passed by on Saturday. It was a recipe for a difficult forecast, and by jove, this forecast was knocked out of the park. Weatherbug, in fact, only had 1 degree of error in their entire forecast. the only real loser was the city of Jackson, who had to deal with the rain, thunderstorm and snow chaser.
Actuals: Sunday – .64 inches of rain, High 42, Low 34
Monday – Snow reported, not measured, High 34, Low 28

Grade: A – B

Onshore and off the pace

The cold front that roiled the afternoon in the southeastern US yesterday induced a southeasterly, onshore flow over the eastern coast of Florida. Palm Bay’s Saturday forecast proved to be a hair too warm across the board because of the cool onshore breezes. Lingering moisture kept the overnight lows from dropping off too much either. The end result of these curious happenstances was a forecast win for WeatherBug, who seem to know something we don’t this month.
Actuals: Friday, High 76, Low 56
Saturday High 76, Low 63

Grade B-C

Lost in a fog

Forecasts for Decatur were generally not too bad, save for one nasty verifying period: Wednesday morning. Even if they didn’t explicitly say they were expecting fog in their forecast (erm, I guess that was only me) it was still in the back of our minds. Decatur did see visibilities drop to a quarter of a mile in the morning, and despite that, temperatures continued to drop, all the way to 26. The 3 coolest morning lows all collected the three top forecasts, with The Weather Channel and earning victory. The temperature tracking surrounding the occluded front on Thursday surprisingly didn’t play into the victory totals at all.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 51, low 26
Thursday – .24 inches of rain, High 58, low 40

Grade: B-C

Dodging Bullets in Winchester

Some light rain showers were found in the Winchester area on late Monday evening. But luckily, for the residents however, the city avoided the rain and stayed dry through the forecast period. Temperatures warmed nicely for Tuesday as expected, though Monday’s highs never quite got as high as anybody wanted. Weatherbug narrowly edged out the competition for the win

Monday: High 39, Low 34.
Tuesday: High 50, Low 35.
Forecast Grade: C

A bit cooler a bit north

Sebastian and Vero Beach aren’t far from each other, but they were far enough apart that they had some distance in their highs on Monday. Whereas the high in Vero Beach was in the low 80s, it only hit the high 70s in Sebastian. Why? It probably has to do with the location of the local geography. The barrier islands are broader near Vero Beach, and the Sebastian airport sits near a river, all meaning that the influence of water has a better chance of tempering changes to temperature in Sebastian. Just a theory. In any eventr, The NWS and WeatherNation tied for the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday, High 79, Low 63
Monday- High 78, Low 66

Grade B-C

Bounce back

Bowling Green was in the clutches of our first dose of Arctic air when we visited on Friday, but the weekend provided respite. High temperatures surged into the 60s on Sunday, touching a total that was even warmer than forecasts indicated. Of course, this week it’s all coming back down again, but for the days that counted, Bowling Green was able to enjoy the balmy conditions. The atypically warm Weatherbug had the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 52, Low 25
Sunday – High 66, Low 39

Grade: B-C

Clouds come close

It doesn’t happen often in the Front Range, and a city like Cheyenne, but it did early this week. The models did really well with the temperature forecasts, and forecasts were generally pretty good. If there was one thing that everyone got wrong, it was the clouds southeast Wyoming saw overnight. On the back of a strong upper level jet, layers of clouds developed, abutting the higher terrain and trapping warmer air overnight, leading to low temperatures that were warmer than forecast lows both on Monday and Tuesday. Weatherbug was undeterred, and collected the best forecast.
Actuals: Monday – High 42, Low 32
Tuesday – High 54, Low 31

Grade: B-D

Smoke from a not so distant fire

I used the current fire map for the LA area as the image in the forecast for Santa Barbara to give a little perspective on the threat in the region as we started to look at the forecast. Even a few days later, the picture is wholly different, with some fires contained, some extinguished and more underway. Santa Barbara did seem to avert the worst of the fires this go around, though there was smoke reported most of the day on Friday as the Getty blaze raged and coupled with easterly winds. Victoria-Weather and Accuweather combined to net the top forecast in the area.
Actuals: Friday – High 73, Low 38
Saturday – High 78, Low 40

Grade: B-F

One off

Madera was the first of our trio of California forecasts this past week, and was the city the farthest from fire danger. It came down to how temperatures were handled by forecast guidance. Victoria-Weather was off the forecast by one degree on every verifying time by one degree, low every time. That’s just as tough to do as getting the forecast exactly right, I would say. The Weather Channel was off by a couple of degrees at two different times, and V-W and TWC ended up with a tie in Madera.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 69, Low 36
Wednesday – High 67, Low 34

Grade: A-B