The trouble with the mountains

A fun thing about forecasting in the foothills of the Rockies is that it’s tough to say with certainty exactly how your forecast is going to be off. You know that something will go sideways, but what, exactly? In the instance of Colorado Springs, it was our forecast lows on both Saturday and Sunday. We all saw clear overnight skies, which should have meant chilly morning lows. Alas, it was not to be. There were favorable winds for warming up the region, especially some howling southerlies on Sunday, and the cool temperature ended up a full 10 degrees warmer than most forecasts. Colorado springs embarrassed most outlets, but The Weather Channel held on for a W.
Actuals: Saturday, High 52, Low 41
Sunday, High 59, Low 41

Grade: C-F

The same verifications

It seems that this winter, more than normal, we as a collective meteorological community are getting thrown off on our temperature forecasts. Clouds are being more pernicious, more influential than we’ve been properly anticipating. Such as it was in New Orleans, and it was in Holland before that. Clouds really held off a cool down last Monday in the Big Easy, but then, the temperatures plummeted on Tuesday as those clouds really prevented the afternoon warm up. It wasn’t the slow steady progression anyone expected, though I can confirm that after our forecast was over, things started to get back to normal in New Orleans. We’re still awaiting normal for the weather forecasters. It was a tight race, even if not a proud one, and the NWS got the wins.
Actuals: Monday – .02 inches of rain High 65, Low 52
Tuesday – High 56, Low 51

Grade C

That warm Lake breeze

A stiff wind off of Lake Michigan in January isn’t often known for being terribly warm, but when it is accompanied by a thick overcast, strange things happen. This was how it went in Holland for our forecast at the beginning of the week. Temperatures were as warm as 40 on Monday, but they were accompanied by winds that gusted to nearly 50mph as well. That is brisk! The thick layer of overcast, particularly overnight that accompanied these howling winds were enough to keep the temperature from dropping off too significantly, which allowed for the base that lead to the warm days. In fact, the nearest NWS station was so warm that all precipitation there was reported as light rain, which went astray from every single one of our forecasts. I teased Clime for being so warm, but in the end, their robots claimed victory.
Actuals: Sunday, High 32, Low 25
Monday . 02 inches of rain, High 40, Low 30

Grade: C-D

Chastened

On Friday, when we put together a forecast for Chattanooga, I noted that WeatherNation was really “swinging for the fences” when they put a light wintry mix in their forecast, at odds with every other member of our forecasting group. Well, it wasn’t a mix, but rain was reported before midnight on Sunday, giving WeatherNation the last laugh. Well, not the last one. Despite having the only correct precipitation forecast, WeatherNation also had the standalone worst temperature forecast. It wasn’t very good for anyone, with lows dropping well below any forecast estimate, and high temperatures sitting at the top end of our forecast range, but Accuweather was the outfit that ultimately took the prize.
Actuals: Saturday, High 50, Low 20
Sunday, .03 inches of rain, High 51, Low 26

Grade: C-D

Freezing temperatures on the Gulf Coast

I mentioned in my recent post that cold air has plunged deep into the south thanks to a broad trough with brisk flow through the attendant jet streak. They didn’t care why it was cold in Gulfport, perhaps, but they knew after a rainy day on Saturday, it certainly was chilly! in fact, Sunday evening, the low temperature dipped all the way down to 33 degrees, before going even lower after our forecast period expired. The forecast was handled pretty well, though I don’t think we properly anticipated the continued cooldown on Sunday evening. It was the National Weather Service who collected the first victory of the year, though nobody had a truly miserable time of it. Except probably the locals.
Actuals: Saturday – 1.18 inches of rain, High 58, Low 40
Sunday – High 47, Low 33

Grade: B-C

Leave it in 2024

We had one last forecast in 2024 and it…. sucked. We forecast for the first two days of 2025, with a weak feature moving into town, ultimately becoming the behemoth that is going to cut a swath through middle America this weekend. It wasn’t much in days 1 and 2 of 2025 though, at least not in Logan, Utah. Flurries popped in on both Wednesday and Thursday, which weren’t nearly as much as anticipated, but the big surprise was the warm temperatures on Thursday, with highs climbing all the way up to 47. So much for the anticipated snow storm! Creating the top forecast was The Weather Channel, who wrapped up a very good year.
Actuals: Wednesday – .02″ of precipitation in snow, High 33, Low 19
Thursday – .01″ of precipitation in snow, High 47, Low 30

Grade: C-F

Post holiday fireworks

In the forecast for Monroe, I described a fairly rainy scenario for Northern Louisiana on Christmas and Boxing Day, including a break in the action, at least for a short time. Well, that pause was used to prime the atmosphere for heavy thunderstorms, which dumped over an inch and a half of rain on the city. Fortunately for Monroe, while there were severe reports out of this system, they stopped before they reached the area, and when severe weather picked up again on the next day, it was all the way into Alabama. In the spirit of camaraderie around Christmas, we had a three way tie atop the leaderboard, with Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel and WeatherBug coming together for a draw.
Actuals: Christmas – .13″ of rain, High 63, Low 58
Boxing Day – 1.51″ of rain, High 66, Low 55

Grade: B-C

A comfortable pattern

The Eastern Carolinas are just as deep into December as the rest of us, but in places like Jacksonville, December is just nicer. On the 17th and 18th, during our forecast period, it was foggy and damp, yes, but also in the 70s. And sure, there was rain, but only .01″ was recorded late on the 18th. That’s not that bad! Also not bad was the forecast put forth by the Weather Service and WeatherNation, who had top billing in this one.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 74, Low 55
Wednesday – .01 in of rain in a thunderstorm, High 70, Low 54

Grade: A-

Rain presages a cool down

Rain was inundating the mid Atlantic when we forecast for Lancaster on the 10th. Over an inch fell on the 11th, which belied the 60 degree high temperature. Those 60s also didn’t stick around. The 12th got quite a bit chillier, about 25 degrees so, but at least it stayed dry! The forecast was handled pretty well all around, but Accuweather stood out a bit on the competition.
Actuals: December 11th, 1.14″ of rain, high 61, Low 37
December 12th, High 38, Low 24

Grade A-C

Socked in

December started in quite the dreary manner in the Cascades. It had been foggy in Corvallis when we investigated on the 4th, and the forecast was for the fog to start breaking down a little bit. It did not. Not even a little bit. Victoria-Weather was the least optimistic, but that paid off, because it was pretty gloomy. The forecast wasn’t good for any of our forecasters, and the weather wasn’t good for any of the residents, as it never cleared out to start warming up.
Actuals: December 5th, High 36, Low 30
December 6th, High 37, Low 28

Grade: C-F