Smoke from a distant fire

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Much of the upper Midwest, in addition to being off to a fairly cool start to June, has also offered up respiratory distress for many of it’s residents. Canadian wild fire smoke has plagued the region, thanks to a northerly regime and some light intermittent showers bringing the smoke aloft down to the surface. The first day of June, coincidentally the second day of our forecast period in Green Bay was the first really impactful day of the smoke for many locations. It has been a bit worse further to the west from Green Bay, but the north wind and diffused sunlight ensured that temperatures didn’t spike despite the sunshine. There was a three way tie at the top of the forecast charts. The National Weather Service and WeatherNation had the same forecast, so naturally were a part of the tie, but Victoria-Weather came about it a different way and still ended up in the three way knot.
Actuals: May 31st, High 73, Low 43
June 1st, High 74, Low 42

Grade: B-C

When May was May

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For those that may not recall, this past week in the mid-Atlantic has been a fairly miserable one by May standards. Temperatures were cool, it has been rainy and there was the looming specter of severe weather. Before all that got underway, there was a forecast for Vineland, New Jersey. It was a warm end to the weekend, with the beginning of the week preparing south Jersey for the looming gloom. The top spot belonged to Victoria-Weather, despite being the only outlet to have rain in the forecast, only to have it not materialize
Actuals: May 11th, High 81, Low 48
May 12th, High 78, Low 51

Grade: A-C

A cooker on the Rio Grande

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I understand that it is only May, and a relatively tame one at that, but 90 degrees is still hot. That’s what was seen in Laredo last weekend, the verifying time of our recent forecast for the border town. Laredo was west of a broad, ambiguous area of low pressure, which meant that they were receiving a north wind, and were still over 90 by Sunday. This went about as well as planned for the meteorologists with a vested interest, and The Weather Channel and WeatherNation tied atop the leaderboard (because they had the same forecast).
Actuals: Saturday High 87, Low 67
Sunday, High 90, Low 64

Grade: A-B

Consistency is key

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Our forecast in Albany proved to be even less exciting than expected. I though there might have been a smattering of light rain or some fog thanks to the pool of moisture still lingering in the southeast, but no, that would have been a little bit too much adventure. Instead, we saw no rain, highs what were the same on both the 25th and 26th and low temperatures that merely wobbled a couple of degrees. In fact, there was so much sameness, WeatherNation and Clime had the same score, and tied for the win.
Actuals: April 25th, High 87, Low 63
April 26th, High 87, Low 65

Grade: A-C

Spring: It’s trying!

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With all the talk of severe weather and heavy rain lately, it’s kind of nice that our forecast in Johnson City last week turned out to be so nice. Well, dry. Temperatures were below freezing on one morning, and crept only to the low 50s the day before, which is decidedly not what you are looking for in spring, trying to bounce back to some vibrancy. It was in the 60s by Wednesday, at least, and with luck, we won’t have to think about February and March again any time soon. The Weather Channel claimed the victory with a very good forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 52, Low 37
Wednesday – High 64, Low 28

Grade: A-C

Let’s hope for a better weekend

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This time last week, we were putting together a forecast for Harrisburg, and it was looking sloppy. Unfortunately, forecasts bore out, with about half an inch of rain wetting the Keystone capital, and most of it came on Saturday, of course. If there was any silver lining, it is that residents probably knew it was coming, given the decent forecast they were given. Probably not exactly the news they were looking for, though. The Weather Channel was the issuer of the best forecast.
Actuals: Saturday, .45″ of rain, High 60, Low 51
Sunday, .07″ of rain, High 55, Low 49

Grade: A-C

Bubbling Springtime

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It was a fairly rainy stretch in Elmira as we began April, as it has been from the Plains to the mountains of the Eastern US, but there was a little bit of texture to the story on Wednesday and Thursday. A warm front brought about a quarter inch or rain over the two days, but perhaps of more pertinence, it also brought a temperature spike of 25 degrees. Spring tried moving into New York this week, and the Weather Service and WeatherNation were there for it. We are in April, and it was the first victory share of the year for WeatherNation.
Actuals: Wednesday, .16 inches of rain, High 51, Low 28
Thursday – .03 inches of rain, High 76, Low 49

Grade: B-D

After Hours

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Pine Bluff was among the towns that endured severe weather this week, and as it happens, they are within a tornado watch in a Moderate Risk area again right now. When we put together a forecast there for the beginning of the week, it was the beginning of a needed 2 day interregnum. There was one more splash of rain before sunrise on Monday morning, but both Monday and Tuesday were relatively cool, and definite winners for fans of spring. Clime was also a winner, with a very good forecast, and the good sense to leave the chance of rain in the forecast for Monday, unlike some forecasters. I should note, Pine Bluff and the nearby environs did avoid the worst of the weather on Wednesday. It ended up initiating just to the northeast of the area
Actuals: Monday – .08″ of rain, High 71, Low 54
Tuesday – High 76, Low 48

Grade: A-C

Temperatures start to sneak up

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Nobody ever notices the low temperatures, and when they start to get warmer. You might look at our forecast for Rockford last week. We knew that Friday and potentially Saturday were going to be sweltering by late-March standards, but our forecast covered Wednesday and Thursday. Believe me when I tell you that the warm up had started on Thursday, though the high temperatures went the other direction. That drop in temperature was due to the overcast and little bit of rain that fell, but the overcast and rain were beckoned by an advancing warm front. The low temperature was in fact 17 degrees warmer on Thursday than Wednesday. Very sneaky. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 57, Low 29
Thursday – .05 inches of rain, High 55, Low 46

Grade: B – C

Tourist chaser

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The Florida Panhandle is an area that gets busy this time of year with students of all types spending their spring break in an easily accessible stretch of beach. One thing they don’t want in Fort Walton Beach or other spots is what they saw from the 19th to 20th. A splash of rain and morning lows that dropped into the 40s when all was said and done. Go home, tourists! Weatherbug got this non-welcoming forecast the best, losing points for having a dry forecast.
Actuals – 19th, High 72, Low 64
20th, .04 inches of rain. High 70, Low 46

Grade – C-D