Going the Wrong Way

With a feature moving through New England, it seemed fairly logical that temperatures would tumble in Springfield. It seemed even more likely that the rainier day, Monday, would be cooler than the drier day. As it happened, neither of these things were true, as the cloudier, rainier day ended up several degrees warmer than the drier Sunday. The National Weather Service correctly navigated the less than intuitive forecast for a victory.
Actuals: Sunday – .02 inches of rain, High 64, low 51
Monday – .46 inches of rain, High 68, Low 49

Grade: B-C

A terrific recovery

Low pressure was sliding it’s way northeast and away from northern Minnesota during the middle of last week. There was even the suggestion that a snowflake could fall near Duluth early on Thursday morning, with some chilly raindrops a sure bet. Indeed, there was a drop or two of rain but it never cooled enough for snow at Duluth. Temperatures did plummet on Friday morning, diping to the mid 20s, but then, they recovered all the way to the low 60s on Friday afternoon. The Weather Channel and Victoria-Weather ended up locked horns for the tie in Duluth.
Actuals: Thursday – .09 inche of rain, High 52, Low 37
Friday – High 63, Low 26

Grade: C

The cold side

Not unlike today, there were strong thunderstorms over the lower Mississippi Valley. When we looked at the weather in Texarkana, many outlets sounded the alarm, prospecting for severe weather in the region. In fact, when storms really got going, Texarkana was entrenched in heavy rain and wasn’t destabilized enough for severe storms. Temperatures couldn’t even climb out of the 60s, but in better news, it remained cool because the system was almost out of the area already, and Sunday was a much quieter day. Forecast.io had nearly perfect numbers
Actuals: Saturday – 1.26″ of rain, High 59, Low 55
Sunday – High 65, Low 45

Grade: A-C

All Rain is not created equally

We’ll touch upon the storms that have swept through the south, in particular east Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley soon, but in a less important note, gosh darn it it rained in Hattiesburg on Tuesday morning. It wasn’t much. Nobody noticed it because it was so brief and pre-dawn, but forever on the record it will say it rained on Tuesday April 9th, 2019, and nobody will remember it or acknowledge it, because it was a trace of rain in a week that saw the area get pummeled by more concerted rounds of stormy conditions. on Monday and then again over the weekend. All of these complaints are to say that Victoria-Weather didn’t do greater with the forecast. The National Weather Service and WeatherNation did, however, winning the day.
Actual: Tuesday -Trace of rain, High 81, Low 62
Wednesday – High 82, Low 56

Grade: A-C

Drop dodging

The forecast later in the week for Monroe, Michigan would become a little bit gloomier, but at the beginning of the week, there was only an isolated shot at some showers. It was warm, otherwise, with a lot of sun. More sun than expected, because those rain showers never materialized in Monroe, and temperatures warmed even more than expected. A warm forecast doesn’t usually mean Weatherbug has a horse in the race, but they did this time, claiming victory.
Actuals: Sunday – High 64, Low 43
Monday – High 72, Low 55

Grade: A-D

Storm Shadow

The Shenandoah Valley was far enough inland that the storm system that scooted up the coast early last week didn’t bring any precipitation to Harrisonburg on Tuesday. Residents of Harrisonburg did not get to enjoy any downsloping, however, and even without the rain, the cool north Atlantic breeze suppressed afternoon highs, and Monday and Tuesday couldn’t even reach the 50s. This combination of events allowed Victoria-Weather and Accuweather to split honors.
Actuals: Monday – High 46, low 24
Tuesday – High 45, Low 25

Grade:

The opening salvo

We’re looking at a pretty active week in New England, and it ended with a bit of inclement weather last week as well. An area of low pressure slashed through New England and brought wind and rain to the region on Thursday and Friday, including in Worcester, where we had stopped in for a forecast. Things remained much cooler than in the forecast as a slow moving cold front proved inhibiting to solar radiation. Victoria-Weather was one of the handful of outlets that correctly called for rain (and they got .14″ which isn’t anything to sneeze at) and we also happened to be on the cool side of forecasters. Those two factors were enough to secure victory.
Actuals: Thursday, High 50, Low 25
Friday – .14 inches of rain, High 51, Low 38

Grade: B-D

Modesto gives us all problems

There were two problems with the verification for Modesto. First, the airport on the south end of town didn’t properly maintain their records. Second, if they had, I’m not sure we would have been terribly successful. Temperatures generally ran much cooler than we had expected in the overnight hours. Maybe they would have been warmer at the proper airport, but I’m not really convinced. The temperatures were just too far off. We can still crown a winner, though, and we will. Accuweather had the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Wednesday .02 inches of rain, High 69, Low 47
Thursday – .08 inches of rain, High 66, Low 41

Grade, C-D

West Virginia Warm up

See, we’re definitely back! Now we even have the alliterative verification titles and everything. This is certainly a fitting one for Morgantown, where temperatures reached a balmy 65 degrees yesterday, and without any of the rain that had been a potential. The springtime warmth comforted The Weather Channel, especially, as they claimed victory.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 60, Low 23
Thursday – High 65, low 39

Grade: B-C

The Hopeless Optimist

I thought we had turned a corner. On the winter, if there is a shadow of a doubt, leave precipitation in the forecast. On the summer, it’s easier to dodge rain drops even if it looks like storms are looming on a given day. Alas, I thought Lafayette was in the clear over this weekend with a short wave trough approaching. I was the only one who felt that way, but I felt really good about it. Of course, you know how this ends. It ends with Lafayette wet. Victoria-Weather could have secured victory if those .06 inches of rain hadn’t fallen, but instead, it was The Weather Channel and WeatherNation who split honors.
Actuals: Saturday, High 53, low 19
Sunday – .06 inches of rain, High 53, low 38

Grade: B-C