from Victoria-Weather
Not one but two outlets perfectly nailed the high temperatures on both days of our Lake Havasu City forecast. Clime and The Weather Channel were the two forecasting groups that showed that incredible accuracy, but it was the low temperature forecast that settled this forecast. Clime was better than The Weather Channel, and earned the win.
Actuals: September 14th, High 100, low 72
September 15th, High 102, Low 81
Grade A-C
Labor Day weekend was very hot for the middle of the country, but it took a little bit of ramping up. It wasn’t very warm yet when we forecast for Danville. The temperatures were on the rise, though, finishing at 86 on the 2nd, better than the 55 we observed to start the forecast on the 31st. Victoria-Weather took the W for Danville.
Actuals: September 1st, High 82, Low 54
September 2d, High 86, Low 54
Grade: C
On the 22nd, we put together a forecast for Trenton, where weather was looking fine. It continued as such for most of Wednesday the 23rd as well, but in the afternoon, things went from clear to cloudy in the span of a couple of hours, and then Trenton sat in the sludge for the rest of the forecast period. there was a little bit of rain that came with the overcast, which put Clime off of the victory, and instead handed it to the unlikely duo of Accuweather and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday August 23rd, High 78, Low 59
Wednesday – August 24th, .15 inches of rain, High 72, Low 66
Grade: B-C
I famously am constantly in need of an editor, someone to review my spelling, and in some cases, such as two weeks ago when I put together a forecast for Yuba City, California, to make sure I made any sense. I suggested that diurnal convection might feel “left out” and bring shade to the town, and said that it is “night” that we are seeing clouds instead of smoke on the satellite this summer in California. I even spelled night correctly. I published the forecast after midnight, Victoria-Weather time, which was a big part of the problem, but despite all that, we managed to have the best numbers for Yuba City, tied with The Weather Channel. High pressure in the area provided the clear skies (and left those clouds out) needed to bump temperatures right on up to 106 on the 15th. Maybe I just need to start writing more in the middle of the night?
Actuals: Monday, August 14th, High 100, Low 74
Tuesday, August 15th, High 106, Low 67
Grade: B – C
When we put together our forecast for Syracuse a couple weeks back, I noted that I wasn’t buying into severe weather in the Syracuse area for the 7th and 8th. Truly, the severe weather did avoid Syracuse proper, though it was dicey in the Finger Lakes. Any good emergency response personnel will also tell you that flash flooding is severe weather too, and Syracuse got over three inches of rain during the two games of the forecast period, surely enough to cause significant problems around town. The Weather Channel was substantially better than the rest of this forecast, thanks in large part to a warm forecast on the 7th.
Actuals: August 7th, 2.46″ of rain, High 87, Low 66
August 8th, .8″ of rain, High 71, Low 66
Grade: A-C
One method of forecasting that we have is called “persistence forecasting” which basically using the weather that is seen on one day, and carrying that forward in your forecast. It can work in Florida, especially with what we have see in places like Orlando late in the summer. It’s hot and humid, temperatures generally float at about the same levels, there is usually a stray storm in the area, and you hope to avoid tropical intrigue. That’s how it went for our forecast towards the beginning of the month, though it was a hair cooler than it was when we created the forecast on the 3rd. Accuweather came through with their best performance in a while, and earned victory for the day.
Actuals: August 4th, .27 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 92, Low 76
August 5th, .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 95, Low 79
Grade: A-C
One area that didn’t experience a recent warm up when it was expected to was Louisville, Kentucky. On July 26th, when temperatures were expected to climb to the mid 90s, the highs just stayed where they had been the day before. Some early thunderstorms certainly prevented low temperatures from dropping significantly on that Wednesday morning, and that factor in particular led this forecast to be fairly middling. The Weather Channel had the only accurate precipitation forecast, with the light storm activity coming on the morning of the 26th, and won the day.
Actuals: July 25th – High 91, Low 70
July 26th – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 91, Low 78
Grade: C-D
I think, if anything, the “updates” have made me feel better, keeping in touch wit the weather world and sharing my thoughts on the site, instead of the meandering carcass of Twitter makes this site seem more current and me more engaged. That said, this has been a heck of a month, and the forecast we are verifying today, in Harrisonburg, Virginia, somehow occurred 2 weeks ago. At that time, a feature was attempting to ascend and descend the Appalachians into Harrisonburg, and I can now report, it was successful. Over the course of that weekend, nearly 3/4ths of an inch of rain fell, about as expected. Heavier thunderstorms on Saturday, light rain on Sunday morning, followed by a fairly manageable end to the weekend. Clime missed the thunder on Saturday, somehow, but everyone else hit on that front, and The Weather Channel continued a strong month, and earned the W.
Actuals: Saturday July 15th, .67 inches of rain in a thunderstorm, High 89, Low 63
Sunday – .05 inches of rain, High 85, Low 68
Grade: A – B
On June 9th, we put together a forecast for Denver. If you know anything about the city, you know that the airport is well to the east of town in the vast prarieland of the eastern part of the state. It’s otherwise barren country. Further west are the Rockies and the front range. Generally speaking, it’s a little bit cooler in the city than at the airport because of the terrain. A bit of a reverse urban heat island. This is all important background for the realization that downtown Denver, which is where the forecast verified, is different by a few degrees than the airport, which is the best source for model output statistics. So, we forecast, we went uphill and we verified. Clime, what with the algorithms and had the top temperature forecast, but their erroneuous rain forecast on the morning of the 10th meant Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel claimed a share of the win as well.
Monday July 10th, High 89, Low 60
Tuesday – July 11th, Hgh 92, Low 64
Grade: B-Ci
The headlines have been pretty unequivocal. It’s been hot in the southern US, particularly in the southwest. The average highs in Arizona are generally pretty warm, so the 100 streak doesn’t stand out as being as far from normal as the mid-100s do in west Texas, where in Odessa, at least, the average high is down in the 80s. Indeed, for our forecast period, Odessa was at a scorching 103 and 104 on the 9th and 10th. That is some tough work for any outdoor employees. If there is a silver lining, it was that Victoria-Weather crushed this forecast and earned a victory.
Actuals: Sunday, July 9th, High 103, Low 80
Monday, July 10th, High 104, Low 74
Grade: A-B