from Victoria-Weather
This forecast, issued on the 11th for Fayetteville, came so long ago that Tropical Storm Cristobal was still mentioned in the text. While this forecast was for North Carolina, the tropical feature wasn’t a major influence on the forecast, but a lingering cold front and a return of hot humid air was. The Weather Channel was the top forecaster way back in the middle of the month.
Actuals: June 12th – .02 inches of rain, High 83, Low 69
June 13th – High 84, Low 66
Grade: A-B
This has been a weird month for me. It seems strange during this period in history to say I’ve been very busy, but those are the facts. You might not remember what west Texas was like back in the beginning of the month, but I can tell you that, unequivocally, San Angelo was hot, particularly on June 8th. That wasn’t a big surprise though. In fact, none of the hot, sunny weather was a surprise during our forecast period, as everyone came through with pretty good numbers. Nobody was better than Weatherbug, though, gaining a victory.
Actuals: June 8th – High 104, Low 71
June 9th – High 96, Low 75
Grade: A-B
Jonesboro was a hot, dry place last weekend, which was more than could be said of the beginning of the work week. Cristobal tracked through the Lower Mississippi Valley, and brought oodles of rainfall to northeastern Arkansas. The weekend, as I noted, was hot and dry however. There had been a hint at some precipitation that never materialized on Saturday, which meant that Forecast.IO was able to claim a victory for the first forecast of June.
Actuals: Saturday – High 92, Low 74
Sunday – High 94, Low 74
Grade: A-B
The start of June was proceeding just fine on Monday, but then after a little warm front brought a scant amount of precipitation to Sandusky overnight, Tuesday was very different. Amid forecast highs that were supposed to be in the upper 70s to low 80s, opportune clear skies led to a high of 90. Nope, nobody was close. The Weather Channel had the top forecast, simply on the merits of having the warmest forecast on Tuesday.
Actuals: Monday, Trace of rain, High 73, Low 50
Tuesday – .04 inches of rain, High 90, Low 59
Grade: C-D
There is a difference between a stormy day and a rainy day, especially on a holiday weekend. If it storms, that means there was probably enough sunlight and warmth during the day to lead to instability. A day with light drizzle throughout just means it was cloudy and gloomy, as it was on Friday in Detroit. There weren’t and reports of rain on Saturday, but it was still cloudy and cool. Fortunately, infrastructural systems that were at their limit already with water didn’t have to withstand too much more precipitation. Forecast.io collected the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Friday – .06 inches of rain, High 65, Low 59
Saturday – High 72, Low 60
Grade: C
It’s been a rainy week for the mid-Atantic and New England, but for the middle of the week, Barnstable and the Cape saw a bit of of a reprieve. It was cooler than one might expect, but the end of rain and increased sunshine on Wednesday overcame the onshore breezes, and it actually started to warm up, even hitting 60 in the afternoon. That kind of optimism is Victoria-Weather’s wheelhouse, giving us a victory on the day.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 59, Low 41
Wednesday – High 60, Low 36
Grade: B-C
We looked at Evansville early last week, when bundle of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes promised to disrupt some outdoor plans. Indeed, it did, but fortunately for everyone working at home, the rain came only on Wednesday the 29th of April, so Tuesday was pretty nice. Ahead of the low, warm air surged into Indiana to make it even nicer. Forecast.io came through with the victory, so I’m sure they thought it was especially nice.
Actuals: Tuesday April 28th, High 76, Low 57
Wednesday, April 29th, .2 inches of rain, High 67, Low 49
Grade: A-C
One of the thing that tempers the opinion of this nascent cooldown east of the Rockies, is that the past few weeks, especially towards the Plains and Mississippi Valley have been very pleasant. Take Des Moines, where some thunderstorms on the 22nd and 23rd, during our forecast period, had the courtesy of falling overnight, and highs rose to the upper and mid 70s, outpacing forecasts ever so slightly. The Weather Service had the top forecast, though many outlets were punished for failing to mention the threat of wet weather.
Actuals: Wednesday April 22nd, Trace of rain, High 78, Low 51
Thursday April 23rd, Trace of rain, High 74, Low 52
Grade: C
You know, we talk a lot about how nasty the weather is in most of these posts, but let’s take note of how fine the weather was in Sacramento last week. We issued a forecast at the beginning of the week for Tuesday and Wednesday, and the weather was delightful. The forecasts were very good as well, with a triple threat tied for the forecast win: The Weather Service, The Weatherbug and The WeatherNation.
Actuals: Last Tuesday – High 78, Low 47
Last Wednesday – High 82, Low 52
Grade: A-B
A large area of low pressure moving through your area is usually a recipe for a botched forecast. That wasn’t the case at the beginning of last week in Hickory, where as we issued the forecast, the western North Carolina town was at the beginning of what would be 7/10ths of an inch of rain. Despite that, forecasts for the two days were collectively very good. Maybe because the rain was over well before noon on Monday. Accuweather and the Weather Service tied for the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday – .7 inches of rain, High 68, Low 49
Tuesday – High 73, Low 45
Grade: A-B