Happy to be off

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We put together a forecast for Jacksonville early in May, and a couple of sources, including Victoria-Weather, thought the shower and storm activity in the area might indicate that there would be a recurrence the next day. This didn’t happen. Ultimately, that wasn’t the thing that turned the tide for anyone, but I think most in Duval County were happy for a rain free couple of days before it gets too hot. The Weathers Channel and Service drew level with good temperature forecasts, but the consensus was best of all
Actuals: May 17th, High 86, Low 75
May 18th, High 84, Low 70

Grade: A

Run down and rainy

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Our first forecast of May was for Alabama. Anniston was awaiting a boundary with showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately for some temperature forecasts (i.e. the warm ones), clouds preceded the thunderstorms and kept temperatures on the 6th from reaching their maximum potential. Fortunately, this did suppress the severe threat in northern Alabama, which mean Anniston got a good soaking, but avoided the nastiest of it. Accuweather had the forecast of the day, nailing the temperatures on the 7th.
Actuals: May 6th, 1.18″ of rain and thunderstorms, High 77, Low 61
May 7th, .18″ of rain, High 71, Low 56

Grade: B

Fog and mist

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Our forecast for Brownsville was for hot, humid days over the weekend, which was expected to lead to some morning fog, especially on the coast. Brownsville is further inland, but even there, the atmospheric moisture was so thick that the condensate was registered as .01″ of precipitation on Saturday. It was still plenty hot and plenty humid in the afternoon when the fog was burned off. There was a three way tie among our most unexpected trio: WeatherNation, WeatherBug and Clime.
Actuals: Saturday: .01″ of precipitation, High 88, Low 75
Sunday – High 90, Low 78

Grade: B

A muted heat wave

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It was forecast to be quite warm last week in Fayetteville. Make no mistake, it was quite warm, but there were several degrees between what occurred and what still stands as records for the 14th and 15th of April. Accuweather in particular was feeling strongly that there was a chance for record temperatures, but the numbers skewed towards the lower forecast values. The top forecast belonged right here, at Victoria-Weather.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 86, Low 59
Wednesday – High 90, Low 61

Grade B

A cool spring start in Baltimore

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Baltimore had about a perfect set of spring days. Sure, you could ask for temperatures to be a bit warmer, but in early April, 50s are perfectly reasonable. This was exactly what happened last Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures never dipped below freezing, but nights were still cool, and it didn’t get too hot. 50s, perhaps, are too chilly for residents of Maryland, but they sure have an fan club, and besides, warmer temperatures are going to be in place for the next several months. Speaking of drawing a fan club, three outlets drew level for this forecast: Accuweather, The Weather Service and WeatherNation had a collective win, but the consensus forecast was actually a smidge better than even them..
Actuals: Wednesday, High 51, Low 33
Thursday – High 59, Low 33

Grade: B

An A for the group

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Just before Easter, we went to the Central Valley of California. Visalia was warm, but clear overnight skies meant the weather was sleepable. Records were not ultimately set, which was how the official forecasts played out. There was a tie at the top between Accuweather and Clime, and a good score for everyone.
Actuals: Sunday, High 88, Low 49
Monday, High 87, Low 52

Grade: A

Better in force

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I wondered how often this would happen. With our first forecast in Madera, the best forecast belonged to… the consensus. The actual individual scores were all very close, with a high in the mid 80s on the 21st, and a cooler day with fresher air on the 22nd. Individually, The Weather Channel and Clime tied ahead of essentially everyone else, but were just a hair behind what you would have got if you averaged everyone out.
Actuals: 3/21: High 86, Low 63
3/22: High 84, Low 52

Grade: B

There are no losers here

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Between the uncharacteristic rains earlier in the year, but before the heat settled in to this part of the world, we took a trip to San Diego. The forecast was issued at just the right time, to capture postcard perfect weather. At the end of February and beginning of March, temperatures were starting to creep up there, which meant outlets that were on the warm side generally fared better. In this instance, it was the Weather Service who secured the top spot, but with conditions like these, nobody is even worried about those on the bottom — The weather would have been great if their forecast was perfect, too.
Actuals: February 28th, High 81, Low 62
March 1st, High 78, Low 56

Grade: B

Underdelivered

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At the beginning of February, we looked at the forecast in Janesville. From outlet to outlet, there were varying degrees of snow in the forecast for the 6th, from flurries to Clime calling for heavy snow. There certainly was snow in Wisconsin on that Friday, but none of it was reported in Janesville. It came down to temperatures, as it often does. The cool down was particularly well forecast across the board, however the warmth ahead of the snow was underestimated, leading to widespread forecast error. The real issue was how much the temperatures would cool that night, which meant that the warmest low temperature forecast ended up winning the entire forecast. The Weather Channel was the winner.
Actuals: February 6th, High 40, Low 18
February 7th, High 24, Low 9

Grade; C

Coming out of the deep freeze

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At the beginning of the month, we took a look at Ames, Iowa‘s weather. It was a towards the end of the prolonged icy grip on the middle of the country, and temperatures were trying to warm up a bit. The cold wasn’t ready to let go, however, and temperatures never breached the freezing line. The snow remained out of the picture, which was some modicum of relief, and with the benefit of hindsight, we can see that it eventually would get warmer in Ames. The forecast was interesting. The consensus forecast was nearly the best one, but WeatherNation ended up earning their own spot on top of the leaderboard.
Actuals: February 2nd, High 27, Low 21
February 3rd High 29, Low 16

Grade: B