Terrific weather by the Lake

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If any one traveled around the western Great Lakes for Thanksgiving, you will be well aware that the weather was very good. In Racine, it was generally sunny, though with a few spots of clouds here and there for the two days before Thanksgiving, and it was warm. In fact, temperatures exceeded expectations on Wednesday, climbing all the way up to 55. Now that is something to be thankful for. Victoria-Weather navigated the low temperatures in Racine the best, which was the difference in our Turkey Day triumph.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 47, Low 24
Wednesday – High 55, Low 30

Grade: C

Nicole holds up her end of the bargain

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A strong cold front moving into the middle of the country started us on a weeklong cold snap that afflicted a sizeable tract of the country. It brought heavy rain to the High Plains, but it dwindled as it progressed eastward. There was only about a tenth of an inch of rain in Jefferson City on the 11th, but it diminished from the heavy rain seen west of there thanks to Hurricane Nicole. Nicole was moving inland at the same time the cold front was passing through Missouri, and at the same time, intercepting a lot of the moisture that would have fallen on the Show Me State. It didn’t slow down the cool down, though, because it sure got chilly on the 12th! Not as chilly as the forecast said, though, which gave the shared victory to The Weather Service and Weathernation.
Actuals: November 11th, .11 inches of rain, High 49, Low 32
November 12th, High 32, Low 29

Grade: C

A big rebound

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We were forecasting down in east Texas to start the month of November, which was buried under a combination of cold air and onshore flow. College Station was even cooler than expected on the 1st, partially because of a little bit of light rain that fell on town to start the the month, and partially because of the lingering effects of a powerful early season cold front. The trough was narrow though, and temperatures bounced back vigorously on the 2nd, going from a high of 68 on the first to 79 on the 2nd. The National Weather Service collected the victory for this forecast posted on Halloween.
Actuals: Nov 1st – .05 inches of rain, High 68, Low 58
Nov 2nd – High 79, Low 54

Grade: B-C

Needed rain

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When a drought is on, there is nothing better than a long, steady rain, and at the beginning of last week, that is exactly what Columbia, Missouri got. Over two inches of rain fell between Monday and Tuesday of last week, giving the region a drink, and starting to rejuvenate the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Everyone had rain in the forecast, and correctly prognosticated a non-standard day, though I don’t think anyone was this optimistic on total rainfall. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the day, which ultimately came down to solid temperature trending.
Actuals: Monday, Oct 24th, .59 inches of rain, High 74, Low 58
Tuesday, October 25th, 1.45 inches of rain, High 56, Low 42

Grade: B-D

Cold enough for you?

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Pocatello behaved mostly as expected, if you managed to sleep in every day. If you woke up early though on the 18th and 19th, you would find that temperatures were significantly colder than what most outlets forecast. It wasn’t a bad forecast overall for the winners (Who happened to be us, Victoria-Weather) because the high temperatures were handled well, and the precipitation threat was for later in the week. Low temperatures ended up as low as 26 on the 19th, which was a bit cooler than the 40s WeatherNation threw out there.
Actuals: October 18th, High 76, Low 30
October 19th, High 73, Low 26

Grade: C-D

Passing showers pass by

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There was a threat of some showers cycling through south Texas on the back of tropical storm Karl, which was spinning down in the Bay of Campeche. Tropical storms, until the reach land, tend to draw moisture towards themselves, and this was the case in Brownsville in the middle of October. It was hot and dry in Brownsville for our forecast period, which led to a forecast victory for WeatherNation, which had the combined success of a their piggybacking off of the Weather Service’s temperature forecast, and their own foresight to leave rain out of the forecast.
Actuals: October 14th, High 92, Low 74
October 15th, High 91, Low 74

Grade: A – B

A few more clouds, a few more drips, a few less blankets

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The middle of October was a fairly quiet time for those interested in all things weather, so a little bit of a disturbance rippling from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley qualified as interesting. It certainly added intrigue to our forecast for Fayetteville, as it resulted in a smattering of rain on both days of the forecast period, and even more surprisingly, led to fairly warm overnight lows from the 10th to the 11th. The Weather Channel won because they had warmer lows on the 11th, but also were one of the only two outlets with rain in the forecast on both days of the period.
Actuals: October 10th, .01 inches of rain, High 76, Low 50
October 11th, .02 inches of rain, High 81, Low 68

Grade: C-D

Memories of NorCal

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Prepandemic, my wife and I went to Sonoma for a friend’s wedding. Not only did I end up underdressed for the wedding (it was very fancy, and I was not), but I was also underdressed for the weather. It was significantly colder than expected, and I simply didn’t have enough warm weather gear for the blustery winds and chilly air. Beautiful country though. At the end of September, we put together a forecast for Santa Rosa, not far from Sonoma, and I had some serious flashbacks. After a gorgeous day on September 30th, onshore flow brought more clouds and chilly north Pacific air into Santa Rosa. Temperature forecasts were warm by a matter of double digits. Not great! The Weather Channel picked up a victory, but not one to be proud.
Actuals: September 30th – High 88, Low 50
October 1st, High 65, Low 51

Grade: D

Same old New Orleans

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The weather in the Big Easy was hot and humid towards the end of September. The humidity was a real issue, with temperatures failing to dip below the 78 degree mark in either the 24th or the 25th. At least it didn’t rain though! Victoria-Weather saw our personal hot September fritter away with a cooler forecast and a forecast for rain, but Accuweather nabbed the victory in New Orleans.
Actuals: Saturday Sep 24th, High 92, Low 78
Sunday Sep 25th, High 91, Low 81

Grade: B-C

Divergent fortunes in Idaho Falls

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I spent quite a bit of time tweeting @Vic_WX as Hurricane Ian made landfall near Punta Gorda and Fort Myers, Florida. I suggest a follow for discussion on live and breaking news stories like Ian.

Last week, Idaho Falls was in the midst of a warm up that brought it close to record warmth for this time of year. With a trough off to the northwest, it seemed like these figures were about to change. How fast and how much was up for debate, though. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel were on the right side of the debate, insisting that it would be “not very quickly” and “by about 5 degrees”. Actually, the issue for those that struggled with this forecast was a belief in more cloud cover for the area, and missed cold on the highs and warm on the lows. this warmth thanks to early sunshine and clear skies meanth much rainier storms when the clouds finally did fill in.
Actuals: 9/20 – High 84, low 42
9/21 – .68 inches of rain and thunderstorms, High 79, Low 45

Grade B-D