Missed by Mindy

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After expecting Mindy to drift a bit further north than she actually did, a lot of outlets ended up looking foolish on our forecast for Columbia, 6 of the 7 thought that the storm would pass close enough to central South Carolina that the state capital would get a bit, perhaps a substantial bit, of rain. Judging by storm reports, was only ever really a problem down by Tybee Island in Georgia, and Columbia didn’t actually get any rain. None. So Forecast.io who had no precipitation in the forecast got a share of the victory, but so too did Victoria-Weather, who despite the whiff on Mindy, accurately forecast the high and low on Friday. Even though forecasters were disappointed by their inaccuracy, I’m sure Columbia residents were just fine.
Actuals: Thursday – High 85, Low 67
Friday – High 84, Low 64

Grade: B – C

Everyone knows it’s Mindy

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Mindy really took off on us. It looked like a fairly innocuous disturbance in the Gulf, but then over the course of a couple days, our forecasts in the area seemed to call for more and more rain. Tampa was clobbered by at least one big cell on Thursday, with a quarter inch of rain coming through, and rain falling on both days to end the workweek. Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service took the top forecast in Tampa, thanks to our belief that heat would still bleed through the storm clouds brought by Mindy.
Actuals: Thursday – .23 inches of rain, High 90, Low 79
Friday – .08 inches of rain, High 90, Low 75

Grade: B-C

Spots of drops

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We took a look at two Florida cities recently, and when we looked at Gainesville, Mindy wasn’t really much of a consideration. Fortunately for our forecast consideration, the eventual tropical storm skirted north of the University of Florida campus, instead leaving isolated showers and storms in the region. If I need to spell it out further, there were actually some outlets that didn’t have rain in the forecast on Monday, which was definitely enough to change the overall balance of the day. Forecast.io would have won, had they put rain in the forecast — again, a forecast near an emergent tropical storm — but instead, it’s Weatherbug with the victory.
Actuals: Monday -.01 inches of rain, High 89, Low 71
Tuesday – .01 inches of rain, High 86, Low 73

Grade: A-B

Going all in

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Central California was in the midst of a hot streak over Labor Day weekend, and Madera was no exception. My general rule of thumb for the heat, and with sunny skies is to always bet on the over. That is to say, it will probably be a little warmer than the forecast. Also, in clear dry nights, the temperature bottoms out a bit lower than the forecast. By following those two rules of thumb, Victoria-Weather was able to collect the victory in central California.
Actuals: Sunday – High 100, Low 55
Monday – High 103, Low 61

Grade: B-D

A small taste of autumn

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While for many, it has been a long, hot summer, it’s actually been a bit truncated and cooler than normal in the southeastern United States. The remnants of Ida caused terrible destruction in the Northeast, all while trailing a cold front that developed as the storm became extra tropical, which tailed through north Florida as we forecast for Hinesville on Wednesday. As the work week concluded, Hinesville was able to enjoy some mild temperatures, along with the sunshine. It’s not often they get to see those two in concert, particularly in the summer. Also rare was Forecast.io’s solo victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 90, Low 73
Friday – High 86, Low 67

Grade: A-B

Failing to meet expectations

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It seems like in so many circumstances lately, the weather has met the extreme ends of forecasts. Intensity, heat, rainfall, it just seems that we are reaching the worst case scenario all too often. When we get a record high potential in the forecast, as we had in Hickory for the past weekend, and it fails to come close, that seems like big news too! Instead of surpassing the mid-90s record highs over the weekend, It didn’t even hit 90 on Sunday, and stopped at 90 on Saturday. Weatherbug is usually helped by forecasts that stay on the cool side, and it was no different in Hickory. WB gets the W.
Actuals: Saturday – High 90, Low 70
Sunday – High 89, Low 70

Grade B-C

Spokane sees a refresh

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Temperatures in Spokane were downright delightful last week. After a long hot summer, they deserved the mid – 70s that they saw, though admittedly, the bit of drizzle early Friday morning was a bit of a tease, given the wildfires and drought encompassing the western US this summer. The Weather Channel collected the top forecast of the day, narrowly, and would have had something special if only they had accounted for the drizzle.
Actuals: Thursday – High 77, Low 53
Friday – Trace of rain, High 75, Low 55

Grade: B-C

Victoria-Weather expresses our grief and wishes for a rapid recovery to southeastern Louisiana and the residents that have been so heavily impacted by Hurricane Ida. We encourage readers to donate to hurricane relief via the Red Cross.

Time best spent outdoors

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Summer can be brutally hot through the center of the country. 90s with humidity aren’t out of the question in Springfield in August, so anything less than that is a treat. Consider last weekend to be a treat, then. On the 14th, there was supposed to be a bit of rain, but it was unseen in Springfield, leaving only the completely tolerable temperatures that maxd out in the 80s. The lows were a little warm, especially the 71 on the 14th, but much more accommodating on the 15th. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel were optimistic enough to put together these relatively pleasant days in their forecast, and shared the forecast victory.
Actuals: August 14th, High 86, Low 71
August 15th, High 86, Low 64

Grade: B-C

Showers and storms are the only relief

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We are a nation divided. Any watch of the news will tell you that, but also, we are divided climatologically right now. Its hot and dry west of the Mississippi, and it’s been tolerable but west to the East. Such was the case in Bloomington, Indiana at the beginning of last week, when temperatures were allowed to remain in the 80s, and on Monday, the ground soaked up half an inch of rain. Surely, half the country would appreciate the wealth being shared. Victoria-Weather stepped up and earned the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 87, Low 67
Monday – .53″ of rain, High 82, Low 69

Grade A-C

Dog Days in Muscle Shoals

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It was a slow start to the summer in the southern US, with temperatures that were actually fairly comfortable. It couldn’t last, of course. It never does, and in Florence and the rest of northern Alabama, it was a taste of what residents usually come to expect in August. Temperatures were in the 90s by Monday afternoon, with dew points well into the 70s. It was a steam room just being outside on Sunday and Monday in Florence. Granted, it’s a couple degrees warmer than normal, but it’s also not as far out of the ordinary as the cooler start was. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the period.
Actuals: Sunday – High 89, Low 70
Monday – High 94, Low 74

Grade: B-C