Double Duque’s

Does that title make you think of Dubuque? it did in my head, but I’m not sure about it now, seeing it on paper. Anyways, this is in reference to the fact that we had two forecasts in Dubuque last week. Anthony made a forecast on the 18th, and I followed up on the 21st. There was no overlap in forecast period, and I can say that we both defeated 2 of our rival outlets. The difference was that Anthony tied all of the other ones, and The Weather Channel throttled the rest of us on the 21st. So congrats everyone, you pretty much all won (except Weatherbug and Forecast.io) on the 18th, but The Weather Channel really stood out on the 21st.
Actuals: Wednesday, Trace of rain, High 75, Low 57
Thursday, High 78, Low 67
Saturday – .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 57
Sunday – .32 inches of rain, High 78, Low 67

Grade: B-C (18th) A-C (21st)

Late night, no worries

I think it’s ok that Victoria-Weather and a couple of other outlets left the mention of rain out of the forecast in Omaha for yesterday. There were only a couple of drops, and they all came in the 10 o’clock hour, after everyone should have been in bed anyway. I guess it doesn’t really work like that though, so we have to give credit to The Weather Channel and the resurgent Weatherbug, who tied atop the forecast, thanks in part to their dash of Monday precip.
Actuals: Sunday – High 86, Low 64
Monday – Rain reported, not measured, High 82, Low 66

Grade: B-C

Triple Digits

last week, we looked at a forecast in Yuba City, north of Sacramento. Whenever I think of interior northern California, I think of mountains, trees and milder weather than the inferno to the south. It gets plenty hot in the northern Valley too, though. Yuba City hit 102 on Wednesday, but faced a significant cool down on Thursday. 93! In fact, that 93 was cooler than any outlet had in the forecast. what a relief, right? Weatherbug beat the heat and had a very good score to earn the win.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 102, Low 70
Thursday – High 93, Low 64

Grade: A-B

Phoenix gets fired up

Hi! It’s been a while! After a bit of a hiatus, thanks to a move and a minor illness, I’m here to remind you of a forecast we issued on Mother’s Day. Phoenix is one of the few places where it is actually quite warm, and the Tuesday after Mom got her day, it hit 98 degrees. Nick Lachey might think that’s just right, but to me, it seems a bit toasty. In case you were curious, yes, Victoria-Weather was the furthest off on a forecast that was won by the tag team of Accuweather and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Monday, May 13th, High 91, Low 655
Tuesday May 14th, High 98, Low 71

Grade A-B

The Wrong time

Last week, we took a look at Corpus Christi, where a weak area of low pressure was developing along the Mexican border. The only real problem I had with it was that the rain associated with it came heavier and harder about a full day early. At least by my estimation, because the rest of the group seemed to get it right. Nobody got it right-er than The Weather Channel, who also handled a Monday that was cooler than expected.
Actuals: Monday – .57 inches of rain, High 79, Low 68
Tuesday .07 inches of rain, High 84, Low 75

Grade: C

Not stalling

OK, we’ve been sitting on this verification for a while. When you see how bad everyone did, you’ll think it was a stall tactic, but really, I’ve just been really busy. Denver is a tricky place to forecast for, and they pulled out all the stops during the last weekend of April. After a rain soaked Friday, Saturday dodged all the rain drops, and the clear morning skies meant the morning low was significantly colder than we bargained for. And then Sunday, it did rain a little bit. Strangely, that rain came with a significant warm up that outclassed meteorologist’s wildest dreams. All told, Victoria-Weather and Accuweather backed into a tie for the top forecast, but it will probably go down as the worst of the first half of he year, at least.
Actuals: Saturday (26th) – Hgh 67, Low 39
Sunday (27th) – Rain reported, not measured, High 78, Low 41

Grade: D-F

Sleeping in Savannah

Savannah is a nice southern town, good for vacations, and things played out perfectly for out of town guests last week. First, temperatures overnight dipped into the 50s both Thursday and Friday morning which was cooler than had been anticipated, and then there was no shower or thunderstorm activity on Friday, as all the storms associated with a passing cold front were drawn north or shunted south of the city. Forecast.io was the only outlet to correctly call for a dry day, but Accuweather had cool overnight lows and secured the victory on their own.
Actuals: Thursday, High 86, Low 58
Friday – High 82, Low 59

Grade C-D

Going the Wrong Way

With a feature moving through New England, it seemed fairly logical that temperatures would tumble in Springfield. It seemed even more likely that the rainier day, Monday, would be cooler than the drier day. As it happened, neither of these things were true, as the cloudier, rainier day ended up several degrees warmer than the drier Sunday. The National Weather Service correctly navigated the less than intuitive forecast for a victory.
Actuals: Sunday – .02 inches of rain, High 64, low 51
Monday – .46 inches of rain, High 68, Low 49

Grade: B-C

A terrific recovery

Low pressure was sliding it’s way northeast and away from northern Minnesota during the middle of last week. There was even the suggestion that a snowflake could fall near Duluth early on Thursday morning, with some chilly raindrops a sure bet. Indeed, there was a drop or two of rain but it never cooled enough for snow at Duluth. Temperatures did plummet on Friday morning, diping to the mid 20s, but then, they recovered all the way to the low 60s on Friday afternoon. The Weather Channel and Victoria-Weather ended up locked horns for the tie in Duluth.
Actuals: Thursday – .09 inche of rain, High 52, Low 37
Friday – High 63, Low 26

Grade: C

The cold side

Not unlike today, there were strong thunderstorms over the lower Mississippi Valley. When we looked at the weather in Texarkana, many outlets sounded the alarm, prospecting for severe weather in the region. In fact, when storms really got going, Texarkana was entrenched in heavy rain and wasn’t destabilized enough for severe storms. Temperatures couldn’t even climb out of the 60s, but in better news, it remained cool because the system was almost out of the area already, and Sunday was a much quieter day. Forecast.io had nearly perfect numbers
Actuals: Saturday – 1.26″ of rain, High 59, Low 55
Sunday – High 65, Low 45

Grade: A-C