Guess what? It was my birthday last weekend (Sunday, to be specific) which fell over the verification period for Yuma. To be concise, there was absolutely no effort to facilitate a forecast victory for me this past weekend in Arizona. The low temperature decided to drop much lower than I had in the forecast last Saturday (though I will admit, it was well managed by our competitors) and other outlets, The Weather Channel in particular, went out and actually broadcast a good forecast. What I’m saying is, none of these reprobates could even manage to gift me a victory, and instead relegated Victoria-Weather to last place. I suppose I could have maybe not been so bullish on the cloud cover Saturday morning, and maybe take some responsibility myself, but you know what? No. It’s their fault I didn’t win.
Actuals: Saturday, High 82, Low 54
Sunday – High 82, Low 58
One day, I will stop trying to find cute names for these verifications, but today is not that day. Victoria’s Thursday was drab, with overcast keeping temperatures on the low end, while there was a little bit of light drizzle as low pressure in the northern US entrained flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Victoria-Weather had the best temperature forecast for the day, but we, along with the second best temperature forecaster (Forecast.io) missed on precipitation, and thus, V-W dropped into a 4-way tie with Accuweather, the Weather Service and WeatherNation. Congratulations to Accuweather, who finally had their first forecast win of the year, even if it was just a quarter share!
Actuals: Wednesday – High 78, Low 51
Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 59
Last week, I described Weatherbug’s forecast for Anderson as “rogue” as they were a touch cooler than everyone else, and were the only outlet to introduce rain into the forecast. The temperatures were a few degrees warmer than Weatherbug’s forecast, however on Tuesday, as they rightly told us, there were a few light rain showers over the central Indiana community. Thanks to the penalty for missed precipitation forecasts, Weatherbug’s forecast surpassed several other outlets who foresaw clear conditions, and they won the day
Actuals: Monday, High 53, Low 41
Tuesday – Trace of precipitation, High 41, Low 35
This has been a tough time in American history, and in Bremerton, Washington, on Tuesday and Wednesday, the weather decided to mimic the mood. It was cloudy and drizzly across Puget Sound through the middle of the week, exactly the solemn and somber atmosphere this era needs. The Weather Channel and Weatherbug ended up sharing honors.
Actuals: Tuesday – .31 inches of rain, High 45, Low 37
Wednesday – .15 inches of rain, High 49, Low 32
Grade: B – C
For most of us, a hundredth of an inch of rain is pretty inconsequential. In a place like Tucson, though, it is out of the ordinary, and forecasters should definitely attempt to account for any threat of it. Mea culpa. Last week, on the 8th, a hundredth of an inch did indeed fall on the city, which almost everyone handled correctly. It was a pretty snug forecast otherwise, a trend we have definitely been experiencing this year, and The Weather Channel ended up edging the competition.
Actuals: Sunday, March 8th, .01 inches of rain, High 66, Low 51
Monday – High 75, Low 44
Early last week, an area of low pressure developed in the 4 Corners and shifted into Texas, chasing the system that eventually led to the devastating tornadoes in Tennessee. The chasing system was a rainmaker, though, bringing more than an inch of rain to Killeen on Wednesday, which was probably unwelcome, but at least it was well predicted by a series of good forecasts. The best belonged to none other than Victoria-Weather, who are undefeated now in March.
Actuals: Tuesday – Trace of precipitation High 72, Low 62
Wednesday – 1.23 inches of rain, High 64, Low 49
To start the month of March, we were monitoring the forecast in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. There wasn’t much to it, honestly, with high pressure over the region and — wait, light rain overnight? I call shenanigans. Actually, specifically, I call out the tendency for the ASOS in the Hattiesburg office for suggesting mist when there often isn’t any. It tends to fog in pretty severely in Hattiesburg, but the actual condensate is harder to verify as legitimate precipitation.
I digress. Nobody had , true or not, in the forecast, so we can comfortably say that Victoria-Weather collected the victory.
Actuals: Saturday – High 71, Low 31
Sunday – High 71, Low 39
Over the weekend, there was a report from CBS that labeled lake effect snow as a “snow firehose” and claimed it was very rare. Anyone who lives east or south of the Great Lakes know that this is decidedly untrue. If it WAS true and it happened over the weekend then Rochester would have been in the “overspray” area, collecting only a trace on Friday and 1-2″ on Saturday. Now the wind, that was something, especially on Friday, where they got 30mph gusts. Maybe that was the firehose? Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service collected the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday – Trace of snow, High 26, low 22
Saturday – 1-2″ of snow, High 23, low 12
Monday turned out to be miserable in central South Carolina. A round of heavy rain moved north and into the Columbia area early on in the day, and didn’t allow Columbia to come up for air at any point. Monday only saw a 3 degree spread from high to low as they collected35 inches of rain through the day. The Weather Channel has continued their solid month with a victory in the South Carolina state capital.
Actuals: Sunday, High 62, Low 30
Monday – .35 inches of rain, High 51, Low 38
The Upper Midwest has had a consistent, cyclical pattern of late, generally transpiring over the course of a week or so. Warm over the weekend and through the early part of the week, then the threat of a little bit of precipitation, very cold by Thursday and warming up again for the weekend. It’s happening this week, and it happened last week in Green Bay. Forecasters generally saw that pattern and latched on to it in their forecast. The issue came down to temperature, as forecasters were a couple degrees too warm for where this cycle ended up falling in line. There was a three way tie atop the standings in the end, with the Weather Service, Weather Nation and Forecast.io splitting the winning share.
Actuals: Thursday – High 15, Low -7
Friday – High 31, Low 3