Idaho Falls, Idaho

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

So much of the Idaho population center lies in the Snake River Valley, creating a U shape through southern Idaho. Idaho Falls is in the eastern part of the state, and I cannot confirm whether or not there are indeed snakes there.

At 653PM, MT, Idaho Falls was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. It’s been dry in the northern Rockies, and there are red flag warnings out for the region. Conversely, low pressure moving through British Columbia is going to bring enough cold air southward that there are freeze advisories for northern Idaho. This is indicative of the overnight cooldown expected in Idaho Falls tonight.
By Tuesday the next system will be moving into the Gulf of Alaska, and drawing warm air back northward. There may be a few clouds on Monday with the cooler air intruding, but it should clear out and warm right back up on Tuesday, the beginning of an uneven week.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, chilly in the morning, High 64, Low 40
Tuesday – Sunny and warmer by afternoon, frost in the morning, High 71. Low 31

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon HIgh 66, Low 39
Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 73, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cooler HIgh 66, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly sunny and nice High 72, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 64, Low 43
Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny, warmer, High 68, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 45
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 48

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 39
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 45

I’ve checked. No typos here, this forecast just looks to be all over the map. Satellite would suggest that this shouldn’t be so complicated.

Lansing, Michigan

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

On Friday, my mind naturally goes to college football, and I know that the Michigan State Spartans are squaring off against Ohio State tonight. Will travel between the two towns be challenging after the game?

At 1053PM, ET, Lansing was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 64 degrees. The clouds over Lansing, and the smattering of light showers in the area were remnants of Helene, which is continuing to unravel in the upper Ohio Valley. The remnants are getting weaker, but are not really expected to move out of the area through any other synoptic forcing.
While clouds and maybe some rain will be possible through the night, the disturbance left by Helene will continue to contract in its area of influence over the next 48 hours. The threat for rain in Lansing should be through by tomorrow afternoon, after which point it will be partly cloudy, an increasingly warm once again.
Tomorrow – Overcast, breaking out later in the day, Some early light rain. High 75, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast (Early rain) High 75, Low 63
Monday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 76, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a brief shower or two High 76, Low 62
Monday – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 73, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow –  10 percent chance of showers before 8am. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 63
Monday – Partly sunny, High 75, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. 20 percent chance of showers through midday, High 74, Low 65
Monday – Partly sunny, High 72, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain showers, High 74, Low 63
Monday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 73, Low 59

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 75, Low 62
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 58

Differing opinions are seen for the rain, but for our more typically reliable outlets, well, there is more overlap. The rain isn’t showing up as clearly as the overcast from the remnants of Helene.

Continental US – Shortwave Window – IR

9/27 Updates

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

8:14PM: Helene has really made an impact. The good news is that the storm made it onshore in a relatively sparsely populated area. The other good news is that the storm moved quickly, landfalling only yesterday and is now over the Ohio Valley. The bad news is, this very strong storm and it tracked over the southern Appalachians. Undoubtedly, you have heard that Asheville, North Carolina has been cut off by flash floods. Those red and purple rain totals around Tallahassee and central Georgia are much more manageable than when you get up towards the terrain of the Piedmont.

Rain will continue for another couple of days, growing weaker over the Lower Ohio Valley, but in another bit of good news, recovery can start now for those affected.

9/25 Updates

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Now with the end of Dlvr.it’s free program for publishing posts on social media (which got us through about 10 years, honestly), I’m looking to make update posts in a more easily transferred format, manually. So this is it! When I don’t have other posts to publish, I’ll amalgamate all of the daily updates into one post, such as this one, and it can be a one stop shop for recaps when I have them. Stop by the site regularly!

12:46AM: There was a severe thunderstorm watch in the evening for southeastern Oklahoma, and storms are mostly winding down. There is still one cell that is severe and crossing the Red River for Sherman. What I’m particularly taken with is how much lightning there still is in the Sooner State as we approach 1AM.

Glens Falls, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re going to return to Upstate New York for our forecast today. It’s been a little bit active, and even though we are looking at New York, we would still be advised to take a look at the Tropics.

At 353PM, ET, Glens Falls was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with overcast skies. Low pressure in the Gulf Stream and low pressure moving into the Great Lakes were connected by an undulating boundary running through the Mid-Atlantic. A smattering of rain showers was moving along the northern periphery of the boundary, and was likely to clip Glens Falls as this afternoon continues.
A narrow ridge will build into the region tomorrow as the boundary stretching between the two systems will break down. While Tuesday will be dry, the low will organize in the Great Lakes during that same stretch. Though the system will begin occluding fairly quickly before it arrives, a healthy shot of rain is expected starting on Wednesday morning. Because the feature will be breaking down on Wednesday, expect difficulties in clearing it out. Heavy rain is possible Wednesday morning, with more scattered and lighter rain through the afternoon and evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, morning haze, High 71, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain arrives early, lingering through the day, High 62, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies High 70, Low 45
Wednesday – Cloudy with showers High 62, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 70, Low 44
Wednesday – Cloudy with a couple of showers High 63, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 49,
Wednesday – A chance of showers, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, High 64, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 53
Wednesday – Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain, High 62, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 49
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 63, Low 53

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 52
Wednesday – Light rain showers, High 65, Low 47

Let’s take a look at the local take on the situation, from ABC 10 in Albany.

Not to be outdone…

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

The Atlantic Basin is also home to TD Nine, which should become a tropical storm, and ultimately a hurricane before landfalling, likely in the Florida Panhandle, later this week.

UPDATE: The NHC now has a page with a track cone, which does indeed place it’s landfall in the Florida Panhandle, around Apalachicola. As seems to be the case pretty often now, it will likely be a Category 3 storm upon the storm’s arrival late this week. It will be a strong storm, battering a part of the coast that has seen a few storms lately, but it will arrive, as presently forecast, in about as sparsely populated a stretch of the coast as you’ll find.

John lingering off the Mexican coast

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Vacation season is right around the corner, and there is a Tropical Storm getting ready to make it’s way ashore near Acapulco. Tropical Storm John is going to landfall in Oaxaca State today, and will pose a significant flash flooding threat thanks to the terrain and infrastructure of the region. Fortunately, the storm isn’t terribly strong and won’t last long, but this part of the world doesn’t see landfalls terribly often, and it’s particularly poorly set up for the heavy rain.

Please note, dlvr.it, the software I have used to publish directly to social media is going to a different structure. Going forward, please check the site itself for updates like these, and I will try to post full posts manually on Twitter and Facebook.

Manchester, New Hampshire to Gulfport, Mississippi

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We’re headed Gulfward to start the new week. This drive doesn’t quite mirror our drive leading into the weekend, and will lead to a longer drive, lasting into a third day, while also at a pace that is faster, covering 67.5mph. This will allow us to cover 539.7 miles the first two days, leaving the rest of the 1519 miles for Wednesday.

DAY ONE (Monday)

Manchester, New Hampshire

In a manner that is frighteningly similar to the one seen on our way up to Manchester last week, a wave will be moving into the Mid-Atlantic just as we are driving through the area. The drive through New England and downstate New York should be dry, if increasingly cloudy. The threat for rain will pick up around Allentown, and will persist through the remainder of the drive through the Keystone State, as well as the snips of Maryland, West Virginia and Virginia we see (We will touch 8 states in all through this drive). The day will end with some light rain, as it will have been spotty throughout the afternoon, in Stephen City, Virginia, which is on the south side of Winchester.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)

A big lingering area of low pressure is hanging out in the Gulf Stream, and is slowing down any progress through the Eastern Time Zone. There won’t be an organized system, so to speak, but the lingering showers will turn into morning fog on Tuesday up against the Blue Ridge Mountains, with rain picking up pretty quickly again as the day begins. As we start to get into the mountains, we’ll eventually get to the western face of the mountains, in Tennessee, and we should start to enjoy some drier pavement from about Bristol to Chattanooga. It won’t remain entirely dry, as a reinforcing shot of cold air might bring some more wet weather to Tennessee as the lingering moisture starts trying to organize late in the day. We won’t spend much more than 15 miles in northwest Georgia, but we are still going to post up for the night in Slygo.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)

The NHC is monitoring a developing feature off the coast of Nicaragua, which will start drifting further to the north through the next couple of days. Models are starting to agree that it is looking more and more like it will become a tropical storm, and ultimately, a hurricane before making land fall, unfortunately probably along the Gulf Coast. Guidance suggests that landfall will come around Fort Walton Beach on Thursday, which furthermore means our drive on Wednesday towards the Gulf Coast will be very dependent on the pace of the storm. I suspect we will see a little bit of rain in Alabama, but it will clear out fairly quickly. Ironically, moisture will be flowing off shore, which isn’t generally a great way to produce a lot of storms, so I don’t think we will see much rain. In fact, I would say by the time we reach Gulfport, it should be dry. Won’t last, but my forecast doesn’t go beyond Wednesday.

Gulfport, Mississippi

Columbus, Georgia to Manchester, New Hampshire

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

These East Coast trips are perhaps even more susceptible to inclement weather. The weather isn’t worse, but the travel is more urban, and a bit of rain can really tie things up. We’ll take two days, including longer day on Saturday, to get from southwest Georgia to southeast New Hampshire. It’s a 1,245 mile journey, taken at a 63.7mph pace. The first night day will end, theoretically, after about the 510 mile mark, leaving a monstrous second day of travel.

DAY ONE (Friday)

Columbus, Georgia

The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon, which brought heavy rain to the Carolinas is now drifting northwestward along the Gulf Stream. The rotation wrought by the storm throughout he Eastern Seaboard is continuing to bring some clouds and spotty rain showers, especially in northern exposures of the Appalachians, and even as far south as the Smokey and Blue Ridge Mountains. Fortunately, this does not include Georgia, but there will be some drizzle and overcast in the Carolinas, leading to additional slowdowns through the Piedmont and Charlotte. Traffic will be thinner, but the spits and starts of rain will continue to Christianburg, the city at the Blacksburg exit in Virginia.

DAY TWO (Saturday)

I’ve got something from the good news department: Our route is not taking us through DC, Philadelphia or New York City. This is great, because it means we will avoid all the traffic brought upon by a stationary boundary setting up between the remnants of Gordon and a wave rippling through northern Ontario. We are likely to see rain in at least 4 states, starting around Winchester, Virginia, continuing through West Virginia and Maryland, and continuing to Pennsylvania. The rain will start to wind down as we approach Allentown. Even after that point, however, we will be arriving in the moisture rich environment in the wake of Gordon. While the more widespread rain will be behind us, especially as we hit Connecticut and Massachusetts, the chance for a spit of rain can’t be ruled out.

Manchester, New Hampshire