Our weekend forecast for Morristown earlier in the month, there was the threat for some isolated shower activity. Victoria-Weather was alone in keeping it out of the forecast on Sunday, but everyone called for something on Saturday. Morristown instead stayed dry, which also meant that it stayed warm. High temperatures were above forecast totals on each day of the weekend, which meant the top forecast went to the warmest forecast. That was the Weather Channel. Actuals: Saturday, September 12th, High 84, Low 70 Sunday, September 13th, High 91, Low 66
10:08PM. Check out the SPC outlook on the right panel. That is a VERY late summer look, with scattered showers and storms over the southeast and the Rockies. These are the typical spots for air mass thunderstorms, and the weather right now is…typical.
The Tropical map remains quiet. This is historic, we’ve never gone this deep into a tropical season without a hurricane, and Faye, a tropical storm bobbing in the central Atlantic, is on her way to oblivion. Will we get anything this year? Hopefully not!
11:43AM: IF you are a football fan, you probably enjoy a good snowy battle. How do you feel about rainy and drizzle? The Vikings play the Bears at noon.
3:32PM: There is a big ol’ thunderstorm cell along the Colorado/Kansas border. It will be dropping some big hail, some outflow winds and a complicated array of severe thunderstorm warnings.
Rarely is there a day like this, where the weather in my location is going to be vastly different than the town I am forecasting for. That happens most typically when I am looking at the West Coast, but I Memphis isn’t so far from Minnesota that it should feel like an entirely different season!
At 254PM, CT, Memphis was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 99 degrees. An area of low pressure over Canada dangled a slow moving boundary through the Great Lakes to Iowa. Typically, this position, especially with the heat in Memphis, would lead to scattered showers in the region, however a weak upper level gyre over the Florida Peninsula was redirecting flow back eastward, and away from Memphis. At the gyre drifts into the Gulfs Stream, it will strengthen and drift to join with the upper level trough. This won’t be directly impactful for Memphis, but it will allow the rich tropical air to move north and flood towards that boundary. There is a better chance for rain and storms to begin the work week, after a grueling hot weekend. Tomorrow – Hot, High 100, Low 77 Monday – Sunny, some clouds and a late storm, High 98, Low 77
TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. Hot High 100, Low 75 Monday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 97, Low 75
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and very hot with the temperature approaching the record high of 100 last reached in 2022; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 74 Monday – Partly sunny and toasty conditions; an afternoon thunderstorm; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 95, Low 74
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot, High 100, Low 76 Monday – Mostly sunny and hot, High 98, Low 76
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the afternoon High 94, Low 78 Monday – Mostly sunny. High 96, Low 79
WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 100, Low 76 Monday – Partly cloudy, High 98, Low 76
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 99, Low 77 Monday – Partly cloudy High 97, Low 75
It’s about 30 degrees warmer in Memphis than it is not far to the north. There is a circulation centered around Tampa, but again another one over Mississippi. Just churning away.
1:29PM: There are two stories this weekend on the weather front, and they are both part of the same story: There is a whole lot of rain in the middle of the country, and it is very warm in the Southeast. That rain is along a slow moving boundary, behind which lies early autumn.
North Central PA has the ability to be a tricky forecast, because it is squeezed between the Atlantic and Great Lakes, all while nestled in the folds of the Allegheny Mountains. Tricky!
At 954PM, ET, Williamsport was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with clear skies. The cool temperatures, valley location and clear skies are all ingredients that will lead to overnight fog. A stout ridge lays over the Mid-Atlantic, despite a strong trough attempting to move in from the northern Plains. Eastern Pennsylvania will remain clear and fairly sunny through midweek while the boundary and trough dissipate and stall, respectively. Flow will become more southerly, however, leading to a warmer day on Wednesday in Williamsport. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 48 Wednesday – Mostly sunny and warmer. High 81, Low 54
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 74, Low 46 Wednesday – A shower or two possible early with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. High 81, Low 55
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning followed by sun and areas of high clouds; pleasant with low humidity HIgh 74, Low 46 Wednesday – Sun through high clouds High 79, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, High 74, Low 45 Wednesday – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 81, Low 52
WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Sunny. High 73, Low 50 Wednesday – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. High 80. Low 55
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 45 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 52
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 47 Wednesday – Light rain showers, High 79, Low 55
Those smatterings of rain showers are particularly interesting to me. The radar and cloud cover are pretty empty tonight.
2:21PM: Here is an interesting dynamic. In eastern Washington, there are flood watches and advisories for the region, thanks to some steady shower activity. Meanwhile, in Oregon, there are forecasts and advisories counting for low water levels in the western part of the state. One hopes the water in eastern Washington will see water flow downstream towards the Oregon coast.
11:14PM: There was rain in the forecast from several outlets for Morristown, and it if happened, it’s gone now. Very dry tonight in Tennessee.
As we head into the weekend, how about a nice little drive through the mountains? Our drive will cover only 4 and a half hours and 276 miles. That’s a pace of 62 winding miles through the Appalachians and Smoky Mountains.
Burlington, North Carolina
This drive will take us north into Virginia so we can hitch a ride on I-81 and head into Morristown. There are going to be a pair of competing forces, including a weak area of low pressure in the Bight of Georgia, and a distant boundary in the Plains. They will have the same effect on either side of the mountain ridge: upslope winds, leading to scattered showers and storms. It will be showery for every leg of the drive on Saturday, but it won’t be a washout. It’s often rainy in this part of the world anyway, so we can’t complain a whole lot. The latter half of the weekend will be sunnier and warmer in Morristown.
