4:30PM: We’ve made it to the end of September, and one last summerish severe weather outlook. There is a slight risk along the Texas dry line and into Kansas. There is even a tornado watch in Kansas tonight! I bet your favorite storm chasers are already on the scene.
Updates 9/29
4:45PM: The remnants of a tropical system are enhancing rain chances throughout the 4 Corners and even fueling a bit rainier than otherwise anticipated conditions in the Plains. With all that said, this color schema out of Southern California is confusing!
9:11PM Speaking of the remnants of Polo, I bet Houston wasn’t expecting that the only advisories related to a hurricane out of their office by this point in a season would come from a Pacific storm.
Sherman, Texas
We are headed to the Red River Valley tonight. Perhaps not the most interesting time of year for a forecast, but people still need to know the weather.
At 350PM, CT, Sherman was reporting partly cloudy skies with a temperature of 93 degrees. While the pattern is fairly benign, there is a bit of instability around Dallas, and there are a few pop up thunderstorm in the region,
A deep trough at the upper levels over the Rockies is diving southwest towards the Central Coast of California. This synoptic feature will interact with Hurricane Polo. The trough will stall aloft while Polo’s influence will move into the 4 Corners area. All this said, the main impact for north Texas will be continued return flow, a weaker than normal dry line, and isolated showers and storms will linger throughout the region for both days of the forecast period.
Tomorrow – Fair skies with an isolated storm, High 91, Low 69
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, isolated showers and storms, High 93, Low 70
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible high 89, Low 70
Tuesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 93, Low 72
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, very warm and humid; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 90, Low 70
Tuesday – Breezy in the morning; remaining very warm with more clouds than sun with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 91, Low 72
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 70
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 94, Low 72
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 88, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 91, Low 73
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 91, Low 70
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 72
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 89, Low 69
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 71
It looks like a pretty static couple of days, and all thanks to a hurricane.
Updates 9/26
11:27PM: While we are obviously talking about the storm in New England, I want to note that again, we aren’t talking about much else, and the storm in New England is here too early in the season for snow.
Finding a groove in Williamsport
I am not one for cold weather. I do like forecasting snow, but I don’t care for living in it. Midmonth in Williamsport would have been ideal for me, as it wasn’t unbearably hot, and still trending warmer. The trend was handled pretty well by everyone, but Clime handled it even better than the rest, securing the daily victory.
Actuals: September 15th, High 72, Low 47
September 16th, High 80, Low 57
Grade: A
Memphis, Tennessee to Salinas, California
I-40 is an important east to west corridor here in the United States, and we get reminded of that time and again. For this trek, we’ll take 3 1/2 days to head for Monterey Bay. Since we’ll be on the freeway most of the journey, we will make the drive at a pace of 69.4mph. That means our 2012 mile journey will be broken into chunks of about 555 miles a day. Respectable!
DAY ONE (Friday)
High pressure remains in place over the Tennessee Value, and is going to stay there through tomorrow. A lee trough is going to start churning some navigational trouble for drivers on I-40 by late in the day tomorrow. At the southern base of the trough, expect some showers and maybe a storm to fire along the dry line from western Kansas into the Panhandle. This means that we could see a spot of rain anywhere from Oklahoma City west to Clinton, Oklahoma, where our day will conclude.
DAY TWO (Saturday)
Showers will linger overnight in Clinton, and there will be some residual clouds, mist and fog west to the Texas Panhandle, and even as far west as Shamrock, but from then on, we should be easy breezy. Amarillo to Albuquerque will be in the clear, and we will make it west to Prewitt, New Mexico, and cease driving for the day.
DAY THREE (Sunday)
This is going to be a weird thing to call out driving through Arizona, but we need to mind the tropics for this stage of the journey. Hurricane Polo, off the Mexican coast, is prognosticated to cycle back towards the Baja Peninsula. As it does that, expect the monsoonal flow to be enriched on Sunday, with an increased chance for showers around Williams, Arizona, south of the Grand Canyon, though the real threat will likely pick up after we are in California. The day will end in the desert east of Barstow, in Newberry Springs.
DAY FOUR
Polo is going to be a problem, but not for us. We can continue on westward towards the coast, unbothered by things like “weather”. Monterey Bay will be as fabulous as it ever is upon our long awaited arrival.
Salinas, California
Hey there, Salinas, what’s it like in your fine city?
At 653PM, PT, Salinas was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees and clear skies. The temperature matched the dew point, and fog will be creeping in, and the marine layer was creeping up the central Coast.
While typical thermal troughing in the Central Valley is expected to continue, along with a surface ridge on the coast, there is a system moving into the Pacific Northwest, arriving on the Oregon Coast tomorrow evening. This will amplify southerly flow around Salinas, which will provide a more reliable source for morning clouds on Friday morning as well.
Tomorrow – Morning fog and clouds, High 77, Low 55
Friday – Scattered early clouds, High 75, Low 58
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 77, Low 57
Friday – Partly cloudy skies High 73, Low 53
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and nice High 79, Low 56
Friday – Increasing amounts of sunshine High 73, Low 56
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 59
Friday – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, High 72, Low 57
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. High 76, Low 59
Friday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. High 73, Low 57
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 59
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 57
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 55
Friday – Sunny, High 72, Low 56
It’s 1,000 miles away from here, but Salinas, you look so pretty.
Drop dodgers
Our weekend forecast for Morristown earlier in the month, there was the threat for some isolated shower activity. Victoria-Weather was alone in keeping it out of the forecast on Sunday, but everyone called for something on Saturday. Morristown instead stayed dry, which also meant that it stayed warm. High temperatures were above forecast totals on each day of the weekend, which meant the top forecast went to the warmest forecast. That was the Weather Channel.
Actuals: Saturday, September 12th, High 84, Low 70
Sunday, September 13th, High 91, Low 66
Grade: C
Updates 9/22
10:08PM. Check out the SPC outlook on the right panel. That is a VERY late summer look, with scattered showers and storms over the southeast and the Rockies. These are the typical spots for air mass thunderstorms, and the weather right now is…typical.
Updates 9/21
12:31PM:
The Tropical map remains quiet. This is historic, we’ve never gone this deep into a tropical season without a hurricane, and Faye, a tropical storm bobbing in the central Atlantic, is on her way to oblivion. Will we get anything this year? Hopefully not!