Lewiston, Idaho

This forecast is coming out too late to factor into our standings or anything like that, but it will serve as a send off to the newly retiring Forecast.io. Starting on January 1st, we will be using Clime. I would love to use Fox Weather, but they still haven’t managed to produce a website with local forecasting.

At 956PM, MT, Lewiston was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 42 degrees. While the west didn’t experiences the frigid temperatures seen in the eastern 2/3 of the country over Christmas, a deep trough has set up over the Rockies, with a strong jet, a so called atmospheric river, pumping moisture into the Pacific Northwest. Winter Weather advisories have been issued just to the north of Lewiston, with more to the south. It remains quite likely that snow is on it’s way in Lewiston as well.
The next round of wet weather is already Pressing ashore in western Washington and Oregon, bringing steady precipitation to the Cascades. Lewiston’s presence between the Cascades and the Rockies of western Montana will spare some of the more significant snows, as will temperatures that will flirt with freezing. Additionally, a prominent surface feature is forecast to organize in the Great Basin, south of Idaho through the next two days, sapping Lewiston’s moisture and ultimately bringing colder temperatures as the snow ends. Nevertheless, snow with a bit of light rain mixed in are possible from mid morning tomorrow and onward for about 24 hours before clearing arrives.
Tomorrow – Light snow with a bit of light rain, High 47, Low 37
Saturday- Early precipitation, generally falling as rain, High 41, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day (rain/snow late). High 48, Low 36
Saturday – Considerable cloudiness (Early mixed precip). High 45, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of showers of rain or snow in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 51, Low 37
Saturday – Mostly cloudy High 46, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain, mainly before 7am. High 50, Low 37
Saturday – Mostly cloudy,  High 45, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain or snow in the morning then mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 47, Low 36
Saturday- Partly sunny, High 45, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 49, Low 39
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 42, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain throughout the day. High 47, Low 37
Saturday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. HIgh 44, Low 34

Clouds and the amount of precipitation in Lewiston will all play a factor. I think there is a huge bust potential overall with this dynamic system in the mountains. I am banking on it skewing colder. Look at all the rain coming for the Cascades at this hour!

And with that, so long, Forecast.io!

A narrow look at the hurricane history of Estero, Florida

My parents live part of the year in south Florida, due east of Fort Myers Beach, which was among the hardest hit areas by Hurricane Ian this September, along with Sanibel Island. Inland, in places like Estero, Bonita Springs and the south side of Fort Myers, the lack of coastline prevented the storm surge and flooding that proved so catastrophic to Fort Myers Beach, wiping the beloved Time Square shopping area off the map.

Southwest Florida had a very good run, avoiding hurricanes for a very long time. That was true until 2017, actually, when, after battering the Caribbean and the Florida Keys, Hurricane Irma made landfall at Marco Island, and moved through the Peninsula from south to north. Ian made landfall further to the north, and was more specifically aimed at the Fort Myers area.

There was a grove of palm trees that I particularly admired the first time I was down there, about 10 years ago. 3 royal palms stood near the pin of one of the short holes of the course, and were a photogenic and stately landmark at the facility. I took a picture and had it as my phone background for a while.

Trust me, they were stately. This is a screen shot of a years old picture, and don’t do them justice. 5 years after this picture was taken, Irma came to pass. Irma decimated the foliage of Estero. The tree cover was significantly less around the facility, and what trees weren’t taken down were defoliated. Cypresses were laid bare, and stood out the most. The palms that weren’t felled stood proud. Of that trio, that was the case.

Only one of the palms survived Irma, and the tall palm in the trees behind the stand, for example, was also lost. But this pine stood as a stately welcome and a great object to aim at from the tee box.

Ian was a different beast. The damage with Ian produced more structural damage. My parents’ building was ok, though the carport was destroyed. Throughout the town, there are still tarps on roofs. Even buildings adjacent to their facility had unrepaired roof damage. The most noticeable damage to a visitor was in the signs for various venues. There was a Waffle Us and a Chi i around town, with letters gone and yet unrepaired. Still more signs were completely decimated, living only a ring where a corporate brand had once been.

That remaining palm though, stood tall. He definitely looks worse for wear, and is a stoic reminder of what Irma and Ian have wrought on the region.

Initial shot of cold

Merry Christmas! Here in South Florida, temperatures haven’t climbed above 60 since we arrived, temperatures which rival those of our forecast for Goldsboro back in the middle of the month. It’s colder there now, but on the 13th and 14th, temperatures lingered in the mid to upper 40s for highs, and dipped below freezing in the mornings. It seems like this might end up being Forecast.io’s last victory. End of an era.
Actuals: December 13th, High 48, Low 30
December 14th, .01 inches of rain High 46, Low 27

Grade: A-C

Decatur, Illinois to Bowling Green, Kentucky

You… you want to go for a drive? Tomorrow, in the Ohio Valley? Good luck with all that. If you insist on taking this trip it will cover 287 miles and in good conditions, would take a little over 5 hours. These will not be good conditions. The pace would be set at about 55mph, but it will be slower driving tomorrow through this part of the country. I can’t recommend in stronger terms that you do not actually make this drive tomorrow.

Decatur, Illinois

We’re watching a massive storm, with blizzard implications in the northern US charging towards the Great Lakes. The system will look like a typical summer time system, and the cold front will charge into Decatur shortly after noon. We’ll already be about to Effingham when it arrives, and this snow will arrive with some intensity. Snow totals will be lighter because there are warmer temperatures than further to the north, but winds will be very strong. There could be a little bit of rain before we see clear skies again, think around Evansville, with dry conditions returning in Kntucky. While in Bowling Green, though, all hell will again break loose, so hunker down.

Bowling Green, Kentucky

Rain sneaks in at the end

The threat for rain was introduced in every forecast for Durham back in the first week of December, but It held on to the very end of the forecast period. This allowed forecasters who skewed to a warmer forecast to get a a little bit closer to that perfect forecast. The warmest outlet of them all was Victoria-Weather, and our forecast turned out to be very good.
Actuals: December 5th, High 55, Low 31
December 6th, .08 inches of rain, High 60, Low 48

Grade: A-B

Tornadoes Strike New Orleans area

A massive feature moving through the center of the country, the second this month, is bringing blizzard conditions to the Northern Plains, but it will be remembered for quite some time for the path of destruction it is weaving across the southern US.

The storms started yesterday, with tornadoes striking the Dallas-Fort Worth metro, including causing 5 injuries at a Sam’s Club and mall in Grapevine.

There were even more tragic consequences south of Shreveport, where tornadoes claimed the lives of two near Keachi as the tornado swept through some mobile homes. There was another prominent cluster of tornado reports between Monroe, Louisiana and Vicksburg, Mississippi. Fortunately, only one injury was reported there.

The storm carried on today, and started early. Storms fired early, and slightly to the southeast of Tuesday’s storm activity. Storms were seen in Mississippi through much of the day, before tornadoes struck throughout the city of New Orleans. Fortunately, none appear to have been major tornadoes, but they struck impoverished, poorly soiled and urban areas, so damage has been great.

Reports specifically have come out of Gretna and the Algiers and Arabi neighborhoods of New Orleans. Arabi was clipped by a tornado earlier this year, doubling down on bad luck for New Orleans. A tornado watch and the threat thereof continue this evening in the Florida Panhandle and south Georgia. Tornadoes were also noted northeast of Apalachicola today.

An impressive jet trough digging into the middle of the country is urging the helicity necessary to produce these tornadoes, and sustain them over the course of several days. In addition, the depth of this trough is allowing the cold air necessary to clash with the marine air as far south as New Orleans. The base of the trough is going to continue to shift to the east, taking with it the threat of continued severe weather, aside from some early straight line winds in north Florida tomorrow.

Cold and getting colder

Everyone knows that it’s getting colder when December rolls around, so to start the month with a forecast that feature descending temperatures is insult to injury. It’s made worse by forecasts being warmer than what ultimately verified, as was the case in Tulsa at the beginning of the month. A cold front that was unencumbered with moisture brought brisk winds and chilly temperatures progressively through our forecast period. It started colder than expected and stayed that way. Accuweather had the best line on the chilly weather, not that it was a great forecast.
Actuals: December 2nd, High 59, Low 44
December 3rd, High 43, Low 29

Grade: C-D

Goldsboro, North Carolina

Back to the Tar Heel State for a forecast in Goldsboro. A lot of ‘boros in North Carolina.

At 855PM, ET, Goldsboro was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 42 degrees. A massive, deep area of low pressure is on it’s way north towards Nova Scotia, and is dangling a cold front that is primarily inactive onshore, save for a thick shield of clouds well to the north of the boundary, and more scattered activity in the Carolinas before the boundary is visible in south Georgia. If the clouds don’t fill in fast enough, Goldsboro may approach freezing, but tomorrow morning will be cloudy.
While the low headed to Nova Scotia is stout, it is going to be quickly forgotten in the CONUS. A strong trough moving out of the Rockies is going to bring a warm front into the region. The feature is going to be a headline maker in the middle of the country with winter weather in the Northern Plains, and a perturbation in the southern part of the boundary is already bringing severe weather to the Southern Plains tonight. The severe storms will continue into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, with continued storm activity along the Gulf Coast Wednesday. The severe storms and most unstable air will stay south of the Carolinas, but in the evening on Wednesday, rain will arrive in Goldsboro, leading to a soggy end of the week.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then clearing, High 49, Low 30
Wednesday – Increasing clouds late, some showers before midnight, High 52, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine. High 50, Low 29
Wednesday – Cloudy skies (Late rain) High 51, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun High 51, Low 31
Wednesday – Cloudy and chilly; a passing shower in the afternoon High 50, Low 28

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 49, Low 29
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 50, Low 29

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 47, Low 30
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, a slight chance of rain in the afternoon, High 47, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 48, Low 31
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 49, Low 30

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 48, Low 31
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day (Late rain). High 49, Low 28

Here is a look at the satellite, with the Carolinas in the happy middle between sheaths of overcast.

A splashy send off to November

Rain was on the way when we looked at Decatur at the end of the last month, and arrive it did. An inch and a third fell the morning of the 30th, sending temperatures down to below freezing by the end of the day. It was dry, fortunately, to start December, though it was cooler than it had been by quite a bit just two days before. Weatherbug nabbed this transitional forecast victory.
Actuals: Nov 30th – 1.32″ of rain, High 62, Low 31
Dec 1st – High 50, Low 26

Grade: B-C