Tag Archives: Florence

A little bit of noise

I noted in the forecast discussion for Florence that Forecast.io went off course compared to the rest of our outlets. There was little indication that a system developing over the Tennessee Valley would hold together as it moved across the southern Appalachians, but Forecast.io saw it coming. There was a predawn rumble of thunder followed by a brisk north wind on Friday. This brought Forecast.io level with Victoria-Weather, as we had our own insight that eluded the others. It was much cooler than most other expected on Thursday morning, allowing for the tie.
Actuals: Thursday – High 77, Low 37
Friday – .08 inches of rain, High 77, Low 47

Grade: C-D

Florence, South Carolina

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 36
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny – High 78, Low 39
Friday – Cloudy early, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 78, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy early, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 76, Low 42
Friday – A morning shower in spots; otherwise, breezy and very warm with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 78, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 41
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 43
Friday  – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 41
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 79, Low 40
Friday – Drizzle in the morning. High 76, Low 51

FIO going off the reservation with their rain and lower temperatures. I’m much chillier on tonight’s forecast. We’ll see how it all works out!

A nice dose of autumn

I’mm not a huge fan of the autumn, but I can definitely appreciate what Florence enjoyed at the beginning of the week. Temperatures climbed into the 70s, and undoubtedly, it felt even warmer with the sun shining, and the weather was eminently sleepable, with lows around 50. Weatherbug and The Weather Channel crushed this forecast, tying for the win.
Actuals: Monday – High  79, Low 50
Tuesday – High 72, Low 52

Grade: A-B

Winston-Salem, North Carolina to Florence, South Carolina

Here is a nice short little journey. We’re going from one Carolina to the other in a trip that’s only going to last a little more than 2 1/2 hours. Winston-Salem and Florence are 161 miles apart, and the route between the two burgs doesn’t take us through any of the Carolinas’ other large metropolitan centers. We’ll cover the ground at a 59mph pace. Without those population centers, we don’t get high speed highways, either. Let’s check out the Carolina countryside.


winston-salem

Weather in the Carolinas really couldn’t be in much better condition. Gone is the heat and humidity of summer, and we aren’t yet to that nasty time of year where the primary form of precipitation in the Carolinas seems to be freezing rain. As it so happens, we are only expecting a light northwest breeze, with mostly sunny skies. This will be an excellent little drive, especially if you have something to do in Florence.

florence

Florence, South Carolina

Let’s hit the road down to the Palmetto State for a fun weekend forecast in Florence.

At 153PM, ET Florence was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with clear skies. Flow was light and variable across the region, a reflection of the stability aloft. There is a broad trough over the northeastern US, but it is a low enough amplitude that it is not directly impacting the Carolinas.
With the synoptic and tropical patterns fairly quiet, not much change is expected to come to Florence in the next couple of days. A light northwest flow is expected to mirror the stronger jet flow to the north, and Florence will benefit from a couple of sunny days, but the northwest flow will allow temperatures to dip as the work week begins.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny, High 69, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 80, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny. High 71, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, pleasant and warmer High 79, Low 48
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 71, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny, High 69, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 79, Low 48
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 69, Low 49

Pretty tranquil in eastern South Carolina to begin the week. We’ll see if the gentle northwest wind, or the cloudless skies will impact the high temperatures more. Here is the water vapor imagery, showing a broad area of subsidence over the Carolinas.

florence

Florence, South Carolina to Detroit, Michigan

We had to push this trip back a day, but for a really good reason… I fell asleep before I could write it up. Let’s see how it goes now that we are leaving on Sunday instead of Monday. It’s a day and a half to get from South Carolina to Michigan, a route that covers 733 miles. Our pace will level off around 63.2mph thanks to a trip through the mountains. Let’s shoot for 505 miles tomorrow and see what’s left for Monday, shall we?

DAY ONE (Sunday)
florence
Another reason that our drive will be slow? It’s going to rain almost the entire day. A cold front will be moving into Upstate South Carolina as we get going tomorrow, and we will hit the leading edge of that activity fairly quickly after we get going, perhaps as soon as McBee. After we breech that first line of showers and storms, we will be post frontal, but the circulation is so robust with this system that it is expected to backfill almost immediately, which will lead to rain and embedded thunderstorms all day as we head towards the Ohio Valley. It will still be pouring aas we arrive in Lancaster, Ohio, southeast of Columbus.

DAY TWO (Monday)
It’s going to keep raining overnight, but the final round of rain is going to be shifting out of the eastern Great Lakes around mid morning on Monday. We will be leaving just as the rain departs, which is nice. There will be lingering clouds across the region as we head through Toledo and on to Detroit. Maybe by the end of the day, it will be cleared out and we will see the sun over Lake St. Clair.
Detroit

Santa Cruz, California to Florence, South Carolina

It’s a long way from Monterey Bay to South Carolina. The drive will cover 2723 miles over the course of 5 days. We’ll move a long at the fairly swift rate of 69.8mph. The first 4 days of travel will be a full 8 hours, and we will be just shy of that on Tuesday, so our drive on the weekend will cover 559 miles a day, leaving the rest for Tuesday. Let’s snake through the southern US and see what we can find.

DAY ONE (Friday)
santa-cruz
There is a broad trough across the Rockies is attempting to rock east and away from our route, which it will be doing a pretty darn good job of. The deserts of the southwestern US will not be as sweltering as it could be as April concludes, and things should be in bloom, given recent rains and sunshine. All in all, it won’t be a bad drive from Santa Cruz to Yucca, just inside the Arizona border.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
It’s not often we are working our way through Arizona and New Mexico and we have to worry about precipitation, but that’s where we are at in life. An inverted trough in the western lobe of the broad trough I mentioned earlier as lying over the Rockies will start to pivot southward, increasing the threat for rain and mountain snow along the Arizona-New Mexico border. In the early to mid afternoon as we pass through the Gallup and Grants area of western New Mexico, we could see some isolated showers. As we reach Albuquerque and the terrain flattens out, we’re going to be removed from the additional forcing it provides, so things will be dryer. The day will end in Encino, west of Albuquerque, or at the very least, at the exit for the New Mexico town.

DAY THREE (Sunday)
That inverted trough will hang out in the mountains throughout the night and into Sunday morning. Like I said we will be far enough east that the forcing will be weakened, but early in the day with flow enhanced by Gulf moisture, we will see overcast skies with a little bit of isolated drizzle impacting eastern New Mexico. The Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma are anticipated to be under weak surface high pressure on Sunday, and though we will be ringed by showers and storms, we will be in the hole of the donut. No problems are expected through Henryetta, Ojlahoma, our destination for the night.

DAY FOUR (Monday)
Low pressure will focus as it reaches the Atlantic, and a well organized boundary will emerge just inland of the Gulf Coast. We will be driving north of this newfound boundary, which means dry weather for our Monday. It should be a pretty easy day, headed through Arkansas, Mississippi and into northwest Alabama, where we will stop in Eldridge.

DAY FIVE (Tuesday)
That boundary will break down as the low, now in the Gulf Stream off the Canadian Maritimes will dissociate with the trailing wave in the southern Plains. High pressure in the Ohio Valley will filter into the southeastern US, and the drive from near Florence, Alabama to our actual destination of Florence South Carolina will be pretty nice, except for the part where we drive through the heart of Atlanta. Enjoy Florence!
florence

Hot and steamy

Eastern South Carolina, and specifically the Florence area, saw a lot of sun late in the week. Showers and thunderstorms stayed over the Piedmont, which meant that temperatures soared to near 90 each of the last two days. It also meant that the Weather Channel, who were one of 2 outlets to predict the dry forecast in Florence, ended up edging out Forecast.io, who had rain in the forecast, for the victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 89, Low 67
Friday – High 90, Low 63

Grade: A-C

Florence, South Carolina to Hagerstown, Maryland

If you were asked how long it took to drive from South Carolina to Maryland, would you guess a day? Because it’s only a 7 hour drive from Florence to Hagerstown. We’ll cover 466 miles, which will mean that our pace will be a brisk 65.6mph. Such a short drive, let’s get to it.

florence
With an active wave rolling through the northern Plains, a lot of the energy that would otherwise be touching off scattered nearly constant thunderstorms in the southeastern United States this time of year is trapped on the other side of the Appalachians. It will be plenty warm in the coastal Carolinas and even north into eastern Virginia, but the instability wrought by low pressure in Ontario may contribute to some cloudiness around Richmond. Those clouds will continue the rest of the way north into Hagerstown, and when we start reaching some terrain, from Frederick, Maryland on into Hagerstown, we might finally see a stray shower. Of course. Right when we get there.
Hagerstown

Florence, South Carolina

We were very recently in eastern South Carolina, and here we are once again. This time, we are a little further inland, however.

At 553PM, ET, Florence was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was a line of showers to the southeast from Bladenboro, North Carolina to Kingstree, and there was another complex to the northeast of Darlington, but Florence found itself in a hole in the thunderstorm coverage. There is a surface trough over Alabama and Mississippi which is helping to destabilize the Carolinas, but at this point in the year, it doesn’t take much for thunderstorm forcing.
A jet trough moving through New England will dangle a weak cold front through the Appalachians, which will induce a steady onshore flow through Florence. The boundary will fail to work into Florence through the forecast period, but with limited shear in the area, thunderstorms will be very unlikely through the end of the work week.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 87, Low 68
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 86, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 65
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 89, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 87, Low 65
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sun High 87, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Partly sunny High 87, Low 67
Friday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms… Mainly in the afternoon. High 87, Low 67
Friday – Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms High 87, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 86, Low 66
Friday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storm High 88, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Drizzle starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 87, Low 66
Friday – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 90, Low 62

It seems like people are less sure on thunder or clouds Friday, and suspect if there ARE clear skies, temperatures will be very warm. We’ll see. Here is the radar for eastern South CaFlorencerolina tonight.