Post Frontal Florence

During last week’s version of the interminable series of storm systems this month, we visited Florence after a line of thunderstorms had brought severe weather to the city earlier in the day. There was a little bit of light rain that trailed the line that arrived a little bit after midnight that altered the verification a bit, but aside from that, post frontal forecasting is pretty easy. Victoria-Weather earned our first forecast W of the year, up against strong competition.
Actuals: Wednesday January 10th, .03 inches of rain High 52, Low 37
Thursday, January 11th, High 57, Low 33

Grade B-C

Florence, South Carolina

We’re going to sneak down to the Carolinas on the heels of a very active weather day for the southeastern US.

At 906PM, ET, Florence was reporting a temperature of 54 degrees with scattered clouds. A line of thunderstorms swept through earlier, with 63kt gusts reported at Florence. Winds have died down, but with a few post frontal sprinkles over South Carolina, Florence stands to get a little bit more rain before all is said and done. The jet structure is still very active, which will only encourage the area of low pressure to drift to the northeast, bringing the threat for rain to an end overnight tonight.
The next round of low pressure is going to get organized in the south central US by Friday evening, which will also indicate the point at which warmer air will start returning to Florence. Dry conditions are expected in Florence from sunrise tomorrow through the day on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Some clouds early, then sunny, High 53, Low 38
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 53, Low 38
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 59, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, windy and cooler High 53, Low 39
Thursday – Milder with plenty of sun High 61, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow РSunny, High 52, Low 40
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 51, Low 41
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 59, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 48
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 57, Low 34

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 39
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 36

There was quite a bit of severe weather in the southern and southeastern US over the last 48 hours. The strongest and most intense storms were overnight in the Florida Panhandle, but now we are near a break.

Dog Days in Muscle Shoals

It was a slow start to the summer in the southern US, with temperatures that were actually fairly comfortable. It couldn’t last, of course. It never does, and in Florence and the rest of northern Alabama, it was a taste of what residents usually come to expect in August. Temperatures were in the 90s by Monday afternoon, with dew points well into the 70s. It was a steam room just being outside on Sunday and Monday in Florence. Granted, it’s a couple degrees warmer than normal, but it’s also not as far out of the ordinary as the cooler start was. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the period.
Actuals: Sunday – High 89, Low 70
Monday – High 94, Low 74

Grade: B-C

Florence, Alabama

We’re getting our forecasting chops to start August, so it’s a bit too bad that the pattern is so docile. Maybe I should watch what I say before I start tossing out bad forecasts.

At 153PM, CT, Florence was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with partly cloudy skies, with an isolated thunderstorm close to Huntsville, with even heavier activity to the southeast. A weak over the Smokey Mountains was helping to enflame shower and thunderstorms across the southeastern US, and will leave the threat of storms in the forecast for Florence this afternoon.
There is some upper level structure responsible for this trough, which means there will be some progression. A vast ridge will build in the eastern US, leading to clearing for Florence and a lot of the surrounding area while the trough shifts well off to sea. Expect warming conditions with the bonus sunshine on Sunday. Part of the progressive pattern means low pressure will be able to drop the tail of cold front by Monday afternoon. Expect some locally heavy rains as the storms feast on the hot humid air.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 69
Monday – Hot, humid with an afternoon thunderstorm, High 92, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 93, Low 70
Monday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 93, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and humid High 93, Low 72
Monday – Partly sunny and humid; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 93, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 91, Low 69
Monday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 91, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy Fog in the morning. Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 71
Monday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 91, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 69
Monday – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 91, Low 73

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 67
Monday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 72

It’s clearing out pretty well for the afternoon in Florence. It looks like the weekend will be good for outdoor activities.

Buffalo, New York to Florence, South Carolina

Sometimes, but not very often, a road trip comes along, and the route that Google comes up with a route that I was not expecting. This is one of those times! Instead of a route down the coast, we’re going to be headed through the mountains of Appalachia for a day and a half. The drive will cover 767 miles at a pace of a mere 61.5mph. Thanks, mountains! We’ll leave ourselves with a half day after driving 492 miles on the first day.

DAY ONE (Thursday)

Buffalo, New York

High pressure will be the name of the game on Thursday, keeping any inclement weather at bay. The drive is one in which we will appreciate the dry weather, as moving through the mountains is difficult enough as it is. There isn’t a single straight road in central Pennsylvania or the entire state of West Virginia, which is fun because of the scenery, but less enjoyable when the weather gets a little sideways. It might start to get a bit breezy by the end of the day, and we’ll pull off for the night in Bluefield, West Virginia, which is on the border with Virginia, right before a long tunnel that goes under the state line.

DAY TWO (Friday)
The big difference between Thursday and Friday for our little drive will be the terrain. Friday will be a much flatter day. Weatherwise, the big change will be a reduction in the wind. It will be still and pleasant for the duration of our drive, should you be so inclined to pull off at a random road side Waffle House. Or just wait, and get lunch in Florence, it’s only a 4 1/2 hour drive on Friday.

Florence, South Carolina
Florence, South Carolina

Charlotte, North Carolina to Florence, Alabama

On this Saturday evening, all I can think is that this drive is going to take us right through SEC country. We’ll depart from ACC territory, I suppose, as we take an 8 hour, somewhat circuitous drive to northern Alabama. We will be on the road covering 507 miles at a pace of only 64.9mph. But really, check out this route.

Charlotte, North Carolina

There is a small, tightly wound area of low pressure shuttling through the southeastern US towards the Mid-Atlantic overnight tonight. By the time we wake up to get on the road, the low will be a thing of the past, leaving only a shallow lee trough, which may aid in the development of some fog in the wee hours. After we get to the higher terrain in South Carolina, and then head through north Georgia in the daylight, we will only be concerned with traffic and the sun shining in our eyes. All in all, Saturday will be the better day to travel this weekend.

Florence, Alabama