Tag Archives: Columbia

A comfort zone

July began in Columbia by finding a rut and sticking to it. There was only a difference of 1 degree between the highs on Sunday and Monday, while the lows were exactly the same. There was a big difference in precipitation, though, as the isolated showers and storms didn’t affect the South Carolina capital, but they clobbered the town on Monday, as the promised low level wave cruised through town. Maybe waded through town is a better descriptor, as it didn’t move terribly quickly. The Weather Channel inched past the other competitors, thanks to a some serious consistency and now bad verifying times.
Actuals: Sunday – High 94, Low 73
Monday – .49 inches of rain, High 93, Low 73

Grade: B-C

Columbia, South Carolina to Lawrence, Kansas

There will be a lot of travelling over the next few days for people the nation over. Let’s take a look at one possible route with our road trip toady. The trip will cover 1032 miles and last almost 2 days exactly. The trek will proceed at a pace of 68.8mph, which means the first day, which will be longer, will allow us to cover 550 miles at that pace. I think it’s about time to hit the road, don’t you?

 

DAY ONE (Monday)

The drive out of South Carolina will be fairly tranquil, but with a weak low level vort maximum sliding in from Alabama and Mississippi, there is a threat for some showers and thunderstorms to develop as the day warms up. The shower activity will be unable to move over the southern Appalachians, because the moisture is seated in the lower levels of the atmosphere. As a result, as we clear the mountains into Knoxville, we will also clear the air. Tennessee, aside from that spurt through the Smokey Mountains, will be high and dry. We’ll make it into western Kentucky, stopping in the town of Grand Rivers, which seems like a good time, given its proximity to the Cumberland River. I guess we’ll find out.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
The trip from Kentucky to Kansas will be relatively uneventful as well. Day time thunderstorms will bubbble up as far north as western Kentucky, but that won’t happen until late in the day. Driving through southern Illinois and our cross section of Missouri will be just fine, but a weak upper level trough sliding through the Plains promises to introduce a new level of organization to the weather pattern. Some thunderstorms, potentially a few big ones, will erupt over eastern Kansas, and will be a looming concern from Kansas City to Lawrence. Be prepared to make a run for the hotel upon the arrival in Lawrence.

Columbia, South Carolina

Let’s check out the weather in the Carolinas tonight. Anyone going to have a problem with that?

At 933PM, ET, Columbia was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 83 degrees. to the southeast, Aiken was reporting thunder, and there was an isolated cell in Saluda County producing severe winds. Heavier rain was being seen on radar to the east, particularly in and around Florence and its neighbors to the south. The activity isn’t well organized, being generated in conjunction with the tail end of a trough that lies mostly offshore.
That weak feature will be replaced by a different weak feature, a low level trough moving from Mississippi and Alabama to the Carolinas by Monday. Lazy summertime thunderstorms will be possible both Sunday and Monday, but as that little wave moves into the Palmetto State, that activity will become much broader in coverage.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 95, Low 75
Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 77

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 74
Monday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 91, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with clouds and sun; widely separated thunderstorms in the afternoon High 96, Low 75
Monday – Sunshine and patchy clouds with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 92, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 75
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, High 93, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 93, Low 76
Monday – Partly sunny in the morning, thenn mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow –  Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 97, Low 75
Monday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 93, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain overnight and in the evening. High 94, Low 75
Monday – Rain starting in the morning. High 88, Low 76

WeatherNation made it difficult for me to get to the forecast for Columbia, South Carolina. Even when I would have Columbia, SC in the search bar or even select the option, it would send me to Columbia, Missouri, or, once, Washington, DC. I had to manually enter the browser address. WeatherNation should lose points for that. Here is the radar. Since the forecast started, I should note that severe storms have moved into Columbia.

Spring warmth precedes spring rain

Of course, according to the solar calendar, we are still in the midst of winter in Columbia, Missouri, but with temperatures climbing into the low 70s on Saturday, you would be forgiven for thinking we had skipped ahead to spring. The thunderstorms that came a day after our forecast definitely seemed like spring, with severe wind, hail and isolated tornadoes. Our forecast was only for the good times, though, and the Weather Service had the top forecast. I forgot to enter FIO’s forecast, and gave them the average numbers for the day. It turns out, that tied the NWS, so I will give them a co-share of the championship.
Actuals: Saturday – High 71, Low 39
Sunday – High 64, Low 53

Grade: B-D

Columbia, Missouri

Hey…. Let’s have a weekend forecast, and let’s do it in central Missouri.

At 1254PM, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with clear skies. The typical overnight cool down when skies are clear will be blunted by a brisk south wind and advancing warm air from the west. It is currently in the 50 through much of eastern Kansas.
That warm air will continue to press eastward, and Missouri will see temperatures rise into the 70s. Very late in the period, the Gulf will open up, and moisture will stream north through the region towards the Canadian border. It will make Missouri humid, and a little bit cloudy late in the evening.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 34
Sunday – Mostly sunny, with increasing clouds, High 63, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 69, Low 40
Sunday – Cloudy. High 60, Low, 49

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant and warmer with plenty of sunshine High 70, Low 43
Sunday – Mostly cloudy and warm High 64, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 38
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy, warmer, High 67, Low 41
Sunday – Breezy. Mostly cloudy, High 63, Low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 49
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day.
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.

That’s a pretty nice weekend, especially in early March. Here is a look at the satellite imagery tonight, with a big empty spot for Missouri.

The smoke of a distant fire

Fires didn’t approach Columbia over the last two days, but that’s no excuse for every forecaster overshooting the forecast high on Tuesday. This outlier was due in part to a more robust northerly flow than had been seen to that point, and the haze didn’t help. Forecasts across the board leveled off and were close to what occurred, but Accuweather ended up securing a victory by going low on Tuesday.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 65, Low 40
Wednesday – High 72, Low 40

Grade: B-C

Columbia, South Carolina

All right, everyone, who is ready for a forecast? I am! Let’s go to South Carolina!

At 1056PM, ET, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with mostly clear skies, but visibility obscured by smoke. The southern Appalachians have stayed dry since Hurricane Matthew, and as a result, wildfires have cropped up in the region, with Columbia down wind of the conflagration, leading to the smoke in the area.
A weak trough off the coast will shift north and further away from the Carolinas, while surface high pressure builds over the east coast. While winds will die down from the blazes, any smoke already settled into the region can be anticipated to linger across the Palmetto State right through Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Smoky, otherwise clear, High 68, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunny with some haze, High 71, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny High 69, Low 41
Wednesday – Sunny skies. Areas of smoke and haze are possible, reducing visibility at times High 72, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow – Hazy sunshine and smoky High 68, Low 38
Wednesday – Comfortable with a full day of sunshine High 71, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of smoke. Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny High 69, Low 42
Wednesday – Sunny High 72, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Areas of fog in the morning. Areas of smoke. High 67, Low, 41
Wednesday –  Sunny, High 70, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 43
Wednesday – Sunny, High 72, Low 45

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy overnight. High 68, Low, 43
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 71, Low, 44

There isn’t a good satellite image with the smoke, what with it being the middle of the night, but you can look at the fire map, showing exactly where all those fires are. There are many.

fires

A last round of 90s

I’m not suree that Columbia, Missouri will be touching the 90s again this year, but they certainly did over the weekend, hitting their magic mark on Sunday afternoon. This was thanks to good luck, as the widespread showers and storms seen across the country over the weekend never grazed town on that particular day. There was a little bit of rain on Saturday in the morning, but nothing on Sunday, allowing it to get that warm. Victoria-Weather came through with the top forecast, thanks to Forecast.io getting their precip forecast backwards. We’ll take it!
Actuals: Saturday – Trace of rain, High 88, Low 70
Sunday – High 90, Low 71

Grade: B

Columbia, Missouri

Good evening, everyone. Who is excited for a forecast?

At 1254AM, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with overcast skies and light rain. There were rain and heavier thunderstorms extending northeast towards Hannibal and Quincy, Illinois, but Columbia as at hte western tail of the activity for the evening, and clearing skies were seen just west of Columbia.
A pair of features will conspire to make Columbia a fairly stormy area this weekend. There is a weak trough attempting to skirt the northern Great Lakes, and is the feature responsible for this evening’s rain, and a fairly significant dome of high pressure over the southeastern US.  as the low continues towards eastern Canada, it will leave a weak boundary that will stall across Missouri. Meanwhile, the anticyclonic flow around the surface ridge will provide a rich southerly flow into that remnant boundary. By Sunday, the boundary will be much weaker, and thunderstorm activity more diffuse, but there will still be a chance of rain in the forecast.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 86, Low 71
Sunday – Showers and storms becoming more isolated, High 89, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 87, Low 70
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms in the morning.High 87, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and humid with a shower or thunderstorm in spots High 86, Low 69
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around; humid High 87, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny High 86, Low 69
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunn High 87, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow –  Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 86, Low, 70
Sunday – Mostly cloudy in the morning and early afternoon, then becoming partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 87, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly clouy with isolated storms, High 86, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 88, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 70
Sunday – Light rain in the morning and evening. High 90, Low 69

Isolated showers for central Missouri. They will be spare enough that they will really drive you nuts if you get caught under one, because not everyone will be clipped by a shower this weekend in the Columbia area.
Columbia

Columbia is just fine

With an active area of low pressure moving through the Upper Midwest and more than enough heat and humidity across central Missouri to work with, it’s quite a bit of good fortune that Columbia was able to avoid any thunderstorm activity. Everyone thought there was a chance for thunderstorms through the beginning of the week, but instead, it was simply sunny and warm. There was a logjam at the top of the leaderboard, with The Weather Channel, Accuweather and the National Weather Service finishing in a tie.
Actuals: Monday – High 90, Low 66
Tuesday – High 92, Lo 72

Grade B-C