Tag Archives: Columbia

Verification

Winter doesn’t last long in South Carolina

The forecast for Columbia relied in some small part on the fact that a major winter snow had just come through the area, and parts of North Carolina were still digging out. It’s a little unbelievable that temperatures were nearly 70 for both days of our forecast period, even after the cold front went through on Tuesday. The temperatures didn’t cool off very much, either, bottoming out at 49 degrees, which kept those outlets without 48 hours of hourly forecast data in the race. Neither of them were victorious, however, with Accuweather claiming victory. No forecast was very good, and the culprit was most often the too warm temperatures on Tuesday.
Actuals: Monday – High 69, Low 38
Tuesday – .02 inches of rain, High 70, Low 49

Grade: C-D

Forecast, Uncategorized

Columbia, South Carolina

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There is a massive winter storm massing in the northern Plains, and that’s received a lot of my personal attention, but the system is big enough that the entire country stands to catch a little bit of it. What’s to come in the Carolinas?

At 1056AM, ET, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with sunny skies. There was a return to warmth after a significant winter storm in the region out ahead of the large system moving through the Plains, as warm southerly flow aloft was driving the advance of warm gulf air. Columbia was actually the cool spot at the hour, with several locations in the area already in the 60s.
High pressure will generally keep the region in pretty good shape tomorrow, through with intensifying warm air flow, it could be dirtied by a few mid level clouds and some isolated showers in the afternoon. The cold front attached to the large system in the Plains will produce severe thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley, however the surface low will become occluded, and the cold front weaker as it travels eastward. It will be weakened still by the time it arrives in Columbia, as it will arrive in the middle of the night, with only some gusty winds and a smattering of showers. Tuesday will be much better, as the sun reappears by noon, allowing for the high temperature to bounce back to something more comfortable.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, a few showers, especially late, High 64, Low 43
Tuesday – Showers in the morning, then clearing, High 62, Low 46 (Non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day.(Late Rain) High 68, Low 42
Tuesday –  Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 63, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Times of sun and clouds High 69, Low 42
Tuesday – After a cloudy start, sunshine returns (early rain) High 66, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (late rain), High 70, Low 42
Tuesday – A chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Sunny, High 65, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy, High 67, Low 42
Tuesday – Sunny. A chance of showers in the morning, High 64, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 70, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 65, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy overnight.High 62, Low 45
Tuesday – Rain starting overnight, continuing until morning, and breezy in the afternoon. High 64, Low 46

Obviously, the two outlets that don’t go out as far in their hourlies look to be hurt by this verification. Take a look at the satellite image that the Columbia NWS office links too on their page. Very pretty, but not super helpful.

Verification

Irma isn’t around to keep it cool

Most of the forecasts for Columbia incorporated some organization to the potential tropical storm off the Georgia coast. Alas, this storm, a future Irma, was not yet to be. Columbia didn’t enjoy any respite from clouds, and no temperate air was brought in to reduce temperatures. Instead, it was a typical August swelter in the South Carolina capital, with temperatures touching the 90s each day this weekend. Weatherbug still managed to hang on to a pretty decent forecast, winning the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 92, Low 73
Sunday – High 90, Low 72

Grade B-C

Forecast

Hurricane Harvey, and a mostly unrelated forecast for Columbia, South Carolina

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Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 74
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 90, Low 71
Sunday – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. High 87, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds High 90, Low 72
Sunday – Pleasant with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 87, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 71
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 72
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, HIgh 90, low 72
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 7-

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 88, Low 73
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 85, Low 71

Victoria-Weather offers out sincerest hopes for a speedy recovery for east Texas. Save, perhaps for Sandy, this is probably going to go down as the worst weather disaster in the history of our sight. Please consider a donation to the Red Cross. 

Verification

A comfort zone

July began in Columbia by finding a rut and sticking to it. There was only a difference of 1 degree between the highs on Sunday and Monday, while the lows were exactly the same. There was a big difference in precipitation, though, as the isolated showers and storms didn’t affect the South Carolina capital, but they clobbered the town on Monday, as the promised low level wave cruised through town. Maybe waded through town is a better descriptor, as it didn’t move terribly quickly. The Weather Channel inched past the other competitors, thanks to a some serious consistency and now bad verifying times.
Actuals: Sunday – High 94, Low 73
Monday – .49 inches of rain, High 93, Low 73

Grade: B-C

Road Trip

Columbia, South Carolina to Lawrence, Kansas

There will be a lot of travelling over the next few days for people the nation over. Let’s take a look at one possible route with our road trip toady. The trip will cover 1032 miles and last almost 2 days exactly. The trek will proceed at a pace of 68.8mph, which means the first day, which will be longer, will allow us to cover 550 miles at that pace. I think it’s about time to hit the road, don’t you?

 

DAY ONE (Monday)

The drive out of South Carolina will be fairly tranquil, but with a weak low level vort maximum sliding in from Alabama and Mississippi, there is a threat for some showers and thunderstorms to develop as the day warms up. The shower activity will be unable to move over the southern Appalachians, because the moisture is seated in the lower levels of the atmosphere. As a result, as we clear the mountains into Knoxville, we will also clear the air. Tennessee, aside from that spurt through the Smokey Mountains, will be high and dry. We’ll make it into western Kentucky, stopping in the town of Grand Rivers, which seems like a good time, given its proximity to the Cumberland River. I guess we’ll find out.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
The trip from Kentucky to Kansas will be relatively uneventful as well. Day time thunderstorms will bubbble up as far north as western Kentucky, but that won’t happen until late in the day. Driving through southern Illinois and our cross section of Missouri will be just fine, but a weak upper level trough sliding through the Plains promises to introduce a new level of organization to the weather pattern. Some thunderstorms, potentially a few big ones, will erupt over eastern Kansas, and will be a looming concern from Kansas City to Lawrence. Be prepared to make a run for the hotel upon the arrival in Lawrence.

Forecast

Columbia, South Carolina

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Let’s check out the weather in the Carolinas tonight. Anyone going to have a problem with that?

At 933PM, ET, Columbia was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 83 degrees. to the southeast, Aiken was reporting thunder, and there was an isolated cell in Saluda County producing severe winds. Heavier rain was being seen on radar to the east, particularly in and around Florence and its neighbors to the south. The activity isn’t well organized, being generated in conjunction with the tail end of a trough that lies mostly offshore.
That weak feature will be replaced by a different weak feature, a low level trough moving from Mississippi and Alabama to the Carolinas by Monday. Lazy summertime thunderstorms will be possible both Sunday and Monday, but as that little wave moves into the Palmetto State, that activity will become much broader in coverage.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 95, Low 75
Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 77

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 74
Monday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 91, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with clouds and sun; widely separated thunderstorms in the afternoon High 96, Low 75
Monday – Sunshine and patchy clouds with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 92, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 75
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, High 93, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 93, Low 76
Monday – Partly sunny in the morning, thenn mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow –  Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 97, Low 75
Monday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 93, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain overnight and in the evening. High 94, Low 75
Monday – Rain starting in the morning. High 88, Low 76

WeatherNation made it difficult for me to get to the forecast for Columbia, South Carolina. Even when I would have Columbia, SC in the search bar or even select the option, it would send me to Columbia, Missouri, or, once, Washington, DC. I had to manually enter the browser address. WeatherNation should lose points for that. Here is the radar. Since the forecast started, I should note that severe storms have moved into Columbia.

Verification

Spring warmth precedes spring rain

Of course, according to the solar calendar, we are still in the midst of winter in Columbia, Missouri, but with temperatures climbing into the low 70s on Saturday, you would be forgiven for thinking we had skipped ahead to spring. The thunderstorms that came a day after our forecast definitely seemed like spring, with severe wind, hail and isolated tornadoes. Our forecast was only for the good times, though, and the Weather Service had the top forecast. I forgot to enter FIO’s forecast, and gave them the average numbers for the day. It turns out, that tied the NWS, so I will give them a co-share of the championship.
Actuals: Saturday – High 71, Low 39
Sunday – High 64, Low 53

Grade: B-D

Forecast

Columbia, Missouri

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Hey…. Let’s have a weekend forecast, and let’s do it in central Missouri.

At 1254PM, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with clear skies. The typical overnight cool down when skies are clear will be blunted by a brisk south wind and advancing warm air from the west. It is currently in the 50 through much of eastern Kansas.
That warm air will continue to press eastward, and Missouri will see temperatures rise into the 70s. Very late in the period, the Gulf will open up, and moisture will stream north through the region towards the Canadian border. It will make Missouri humid, and a little bit cloudy late in the evening.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 34
Sunday – Mostly sunny, with increasing clouds, High 63, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 69, Low 40
Sunday – Cloudy. High 60, Low, 49

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant and warmer with plenty of sunshine High 70, Low 43
Sunday – Mostly cloudy and warm High 64, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 38
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy, warmer, High 67, Low 41
Sunday – Breezy. Mostly cloudy, High 63, Low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 49
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day.
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.

That’s a pretty nice weekend, especially in early March. Here is a look at the satellite imagery tonight, with a big empty spot for Missouri.

Verification

The smoke of a distant fire

Fires didn’t approach Columbia over the last two days, but that’s no excuse for every forecaster overshooting the forecast high on Tuesday. This outlier was due in part to a more robust northerly flow than had been seen to that point, and the haze didn’t help. Forecasts across the board leveled off and were close to what occurred, but Accuweather ended up securing a victory by going low on Tuesday.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 65, Low 40
Wednesday – High 72, Low 40

Grade: B-C