Tag Archives: Columbia

Spring warmth precedes spring rain

Of course, according to the solar calendar, we are still in the midst of winter in Columbia, Missouri, but with temperatures climbing into the low 70s on Saturday, you would be forgiven for thinking we had skipped ahead to spring. The thunderstorms that came a day after our forecast definitely seemed like spring, with severe wind, hail and isolated tornadoes. Our forecast was only for the good times, though, and the Weather Service had the top forecast. I forgot to enter FIO’s forecast, and gave them the average numbers for the day. It turns out, that tied the NWS, so I will give them a co-share of the championship.
Actuals: Saturday – High 71, Low 39
Sunday – High 64, Low 53

Grade: B-D

Columbia, Missouri

Hey…. Let’s have a weekend forecast, and let’s do it in central Missouri.

At 1254PM, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with clear skies. The typical overnight cool down when skies are clear will be blunted by a brisk south wind and advancing warm air from the west. It is currently in the 50 through much of eastern Kansas.
That warm air will continue to press eastward, and Missouri will see temperatures rise into the 70s. Very late in the period, the Gulf will open up, and moisture will stream north through the region towards the Canadian border. It will make Missouri humid, and a little bit cloudy late in the evening.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 34
Sunday – Mostly sunny, with increasing clouds, High 63, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 69, Low 40
Sunday – Cloudy. High 60, Low, 49

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant and warmer with plenty of sunshine High 70, Low 43
Sunday – Mostly cloudy and warm High 64, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 38
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy, warmer, High 67, Low 41
Sunday – Breezy. Mostly cloudy, High 63, Low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 49
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day.
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.

That’s a pretty nice weekend, especially in early March. Here is a look at the satellite imagery tonight, with a big empty spot for Missouri.

The smoke of a distant fire

Fires didn’t approach Columbia over the last two days, but that’s no excuse for every forecaster overshooting the forecast high on Tuesday. This outlier was due in part to a more robust northerly flow than had been seen to that point, and the haze didn’t help. Forecasts across the board leveled off and were close to what occurred, but Accuweather ended up securing a victory by going low on Tuesday.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 65, Low 40
Wednesday – High 72, Low 40

Grade: B-C

Columbia, South Carolina

All right, everyone, who is ready for a forecast? I am! Let’s go to South Carolina!

At 1056PM, ET, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with mostly clear skies, but visibility obscured by smoke. The southern Appalachians have stayed dry since Hurricane Matthew, and as a result, wildfires have cropped up in the region, with Columbia down wind of the conflagration, leading to the smoke in the area.
A weak trough off the coast will shift north and further away from the Carolinas, while surface high pressure builds over the east coast. While winds will die down from the blazes, any smoke already settled into the region can be anticipated to linger across the Palmetto State right through Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Smoky, otherwise clear, High 68, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunny with some haze, High 71, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny High 69, Low 41
Wednesday – Sunny skies. Areas of smoke and haze are possible, reducing visibility at times High 72, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow – Hazy sunshine and smoky High 68, Low 38
Wednesday – Comfortable with a full day of sunshine High 71, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of smoke. Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny High 69, Low 42
Wednesday – Sunny High 72, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Areas of fog in the morning. Areas of smoke. High 67, Low, 41
Wednesday –  Sunny, High 70, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 43
Wednesday – Sunny, High 72, Low 45

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy overnight. High 68, Low, 43
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 71, Low, 44

There isn’t a good satellite image with the smoke, what with it being the middle of the night, but you can look at the fire map, showing exactly where all those fires are. There are many.

fires

A last round of 90s

I’m not suree that Columbia, Missouri will be touching the 90s again this year, but they certainly did over the weekend, hitting their magic mark on Sunday afternoon. This was thanks to good luck, as the widespread showers and storms seen across the country over the weekend never grazed town on that particular day. There was a little bit of rain on Saturday in the morning, but nothing on Sunday, allowing it to get that warm. Victoria-Weather came through with the top forecast, thanks to Forecast.io getting their precip forecast backwards. We’ll take it!
Actuals: Saturday – Trace of rain, High 88, Low 70
Sunday – High 90, Low 71

Grade: B

Columbia, Missouri

Good evening, everyone. Who is excited for a forecast?

At 1254AM, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with overcast skies and light rain. There were rain and heavier thunderstorms extending northeast towards Hannibal and Quincy, Illinois, but Columbia as at hte western tail of the activity for the evening, and clearing skies were seen just west of Columbia.
A pair of features will conspire to make Columbia a fairly stormy area this weekend. There is a weak trough attempting to skirt the northern Great Lakes, and is the feature responsible for this evening’s rain, and a fairly significant dome of high pressure over the southeastern US.  as the low continues towards eastern Canada, it will leave a weak boundary that will stall across Missouri. Meanwhile, the anticyclonic flow around the surface ridge will provide a rich southerly flow into that remnant boundary. By Sunday, the boundary will be much weaker, and thunderstorm activity more diffuse, but there will still be a chance of rain in the forecast.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 86, Low 71
Sunday – Showers and storms becoming more isolated, High 89, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 87, Low 70
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms in the morning.High 87, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and humid with a shower or thunderstorm in spots High 86, Low 69
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around; humid High 87, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny High 86, Low 69
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunn High 87, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow –  Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 86, Low, 70
Sunday – Mostly cloudy in the morning and early afternoon, then becoming partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 87, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly clouy with isolated storms, High 86, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 88, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 70
Sunday – Light rain in the morning and evening. High 90, Low 69

Isolated showers for central Missouri. They will be spare enough that they will really drive you nuts if you get caught under one, because not everyone will be clipped by a shower this weekend in the Columbia area.
Columbia

Columbia is just fine

With an active area of low pressure moving through the Upper Midwest and more than enough heat and humidity across central Missouri to work with, it’s quite a bit of good fortune that Columbia was able to avoid any thunderstorm activity. Everyone thought there was a chance for thunderstorms through the beginning of the week, but instead, it was simply sunny and warm. There was a logjam at the top of the leaderboard, with The Weather Channel, Accuweather and the National Weather Service finishing in a tie.
Actuals: Monday – High 90, Low 66
Tuesday – High 92, Lo 72

Grade B-C

El Centro, California to Columbia, Missouri

Who is ready for a three day venture through the wild west? Our route definitely takes us through the old cowboy towns of the desert southwest on this drive, which will cover 1570 miles.  Our drive will cover 1570 miles at a pace of 66.3mph. The result is that our first two days of driving will be a touch longer, covering about 530 miles a day. Let’s pile in and put on our bandanas.

DAY ONE (Monday)
El CentroWe’re going to be clambering through some fun terrain on either side of Phoenix as we attempt to get from El Centro to I-40 in northern Arizona. We’ll  make it to the buttes and mesas of New Mexico by the time our drive ends on Monday. The majority of the drive, and certainly the drive to reach I-40 will be dusty and dry, but a departicng wave over the central Rockies will attempt to bring some high clouds and a very isolated chance for light rain. I expect it to be dry, however, and for a partly cloudy snset in Wingate in northwestern New Mexico.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
There might be a rumble of thunder in the Plains overnight Monday, but expect those storms to move quickly out of the region, with dry heat returning the high Plains. We won’t get a whiff of any showers or storms as we move through the Panhandles and into Kansas, in the city of Plains. Hmm. Makes sense, I guess. It’s between Dodge City and Liberal.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
It’s a weird little feture, but it’s showing up on all of the guidance at this point. There is a small area of rain showers forecast throughout the day on Wednesday for southern Missouri. Some sort of surface wave that is unusually well analyzed on all of the models, perhaps. It seems spurrious, to say the least. This is a long way of saying that there isn’t much that we should truly be worried about on our final day of driving, if we’re spending that much tie talking about this little feature. Expect a nice arrival in Columbia.

ColumbiaMO

Columbia, Missouri

Finally, right? We were going to post this on Wednesday, but this is just how far behind I’ve gotten. Hopefully we can make a hard charge at catching up soon.

At 154PM, ET, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 92 degrees with mostly sunny skies. The hot weather was amplified by dew points in the mid 60s. A stationary connecting boundary between a strong area of low pressure in New England and the warm front associated with a low in the Upper Midwest was triggering a few isolated storms in central Illinois. There is a broad upper level ridge across the Mississippi Valley otherwise, with any instability arising from the southerly flow and associated Gulf moisture.
The upper level waive generating showers and storms in the Upper Midwest will be absorbed into the broader ridge structure, and dissipate, but before it does it will encourage a more robust southerly flow and more widespread showers and storms through tomorrow afternoon in Missouri. Any cool down will be short lived as the region will still be encompassed by upper level ridging. Another feature will ride the northern end of the ridge, and may bring another late round of showers and isolted thunderstorms to Columbia late on Tuesday, though most of the activity will be well to the north.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, hot. High 92, Low 73
Tuesday – A little clearer, still hot, with some isolated showers and storms, High 93, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 93, Low 70
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 93, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm and humid with periods of clouds and sun; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm around High 90, Low 72
Tuesday – Partly sunny and humid; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in spots High 91, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 92, Low, 71
Tuesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 92, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 90, Low 72
Tuesday – Partly sunny with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 91, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 93, Low 72
Tuesday – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 91, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 91, Low 71
Tuesday – Rain overnight.High 94, Low 71

It’s hot and probably going to rain, I think that is the consensus. But when is it going to rain? That we aren’t so sure about. Here is the shower activity presently on radar

Columbia

Columbia, South Carolina to Wichita, Kansas

We’re off for a late week road trip, one that will allow us to cover much of the southern US in the hottest time of the year. That’s what everyone wants, right? That’s fun? It will be a 1173 mile journey at a pace of about 65mph. Our first day will be shorter than the second, and cover 519.7 miles. For the love of God, the AC had better work.

DAY ONE (Thursday)
Columbia
The good news is that it will be dry in South Carolina. The bad news, of course, is that it will be rather warm. Furthermore, when we get to the Atlanta area, showers and thunderstorms will begin to crop up. A descending ridge will help trigger stronger thunderstorms at the southern periphery of the feature. While convection will be heaviest in Tennessee, we will also see more robust convection through northern Mississippi. That’s mostly because it will be during peak heating that we pass through the area. The day will end in hot, humid and stormy Glenfield, Mississippi, which is near New Albany.

DAY TWO (Friday)
There will be the slightest of chances for a stray thunderstorm for much of the morning, with no greater a chance than for the stretch between Forrest City and Little Rock in Arkansas. After that, however, a funny thing will happen. Despite a weak lee low developing in the southern Plains, the increasing afternoon heat will help stabilize the atmosphere. It’s going to be very warm when we arrive in Wichita, thanks in large part to the blistering July sun.

Aerial of the Downtown Skyline of Wichita, Kansas with the Arkansas River and the Lawrence-Dumont Stadium in the Foreground

Aerial of the Downtown Skyline of Wichita, Kansas with the Arkansas River and the Lawrence-Dumont Stadium in the Foreground