Tag Archives: Columbia

Columbia, Missouri

Good evening, everyone. Who is excited for a forecast?

At 1254AM, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with overcast skies and light rain. There were rain and heavier thunderstorms extending northeast towards Hannibal and Quincy, Illinois, but Columbia as at hte western tail of the activity for the evening, and clearing skies were seen just west of Columbia.
A pair of features will conspire to make Columbia a fairly stormy area this weekend. There is a weak trough attempting to skirt the northern Great Lakes, and is the feature responsible for this evening’s rain, and a fairly significant dome of high pressure over the southeastern US.  as the low continues towards eastern Canada, it will leave a weak boundary that will stall across Missouri. Meanwhile, the anticyclonic flow around the surface ridge will provide a rich southerly flow into that remnant boundary. By Sunday, the boundary will be much weaker, and thunderstorm activity more diffuse, but there will still be a chance of rain in the forecast.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 86, Low 71
Sunday – Showers and storms becoming more isolated, High 89, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 87, Low 70
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms in the morning.High 87, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and humid with a shower or thunderstorm in spots High 86, Low 69
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around; humid High 87, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny High 86, Low 69
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunn High 87, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow –  Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 86, Low, 70
Sunday – Mostly cloudy in the morning and early afternoon, then becoming partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 87, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly clouy with isolated storms, High 86, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 88, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 70
Sunday – Light rain in the morning and evening. High 90, Low 69

Isolated showers for central Missouri. They will be spare enough that they will really drive you nuts if you get caught under one, because not everyone will be clipped by a shower this weekend in the Columbia area.
Columbia

Columbia is just fine

With an active area of low pressure moving through the Upper Midwest and more than enough heat and humidity across central Missouri to work with, it’s quite a bit of good fortune that Columbia was able to avoid any thunderstorm activity. Everyone thought there was a chance for thunderstorms through the beginning of the week, but instead, it was simply sunny and warm. There was a logjam at the top of the leaderboard, with The Weather Channel, Accuweather and the National Weather Service finishing in a tie.
Actuals: Monday – High 90, Low 66
Tuesday – High 92, Lo 72

Grade B-C

El Centro, California to Columbia, Missouri

Who is ready for a three day venture through the wild west? Our route definitely takes us through the old cowboy towns of the desert southwest on this drive, which will cover 1570 miles.  Our drive will cover 1570 miles at a pace of 66.3mph. The result is that our first two days of driving will be a touch longer, covering about 530 miles a day. Let’s pile in and put on our bandanas.

DAY ONE (Monday)
El CentroWe’re going to be clambering through some fun terrain on either side of Phoenix as we attempt to get from El Centro to I-40 in northern Arizona. We’ll  make it to the buttes and mesas of New Mexico by the time our drive ends on Monday. The majority of the drive, and certainly the drive to reach I-40 will be dusty and dry, but a departicng wave over the central Rockies will attempt to bring some high clouds and a very isolated chance for light rain. I expect it to be dry, however, and for a partly cloudy snset in Wingate in northwestern New Mexico.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
There might be a rumble of thunder in the Plains overnight Monday, but expect those storms to move quickly out of the region, with dry heat returning the high Plains. We won’t get a whiff of any showers or storms as we move through the Panhandles and into Kansas, in the city of Plains. Hmm. Makes sense, I guess. It’s between Dodge City and Liberal.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
It’s a weird little feture, but it’s showing up on all of the guidance at this point. There is a small area of rain showers forecast throughout the day on Wednesday for southern Missouri. Some sort of surface wave that is unusually well analyzed on all of the models, perhaps. It seems spurrious, to say the least. This is a long way of saying that there isn’t much that we should truly be worried about on our final day of driving, if we’re spending that much tie talking about this little feature. Expect a nice arrival in Columbia.

ColumbiaMO

Columbia, Missouri

Finally, right? We were going to post this on Wednesday, but this is just how far behind I’ve gotten. Hopefully we can make a hard charge at catching up soon.

At 154PM, ET, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 92 degrees with mostly sunny skies. The hot weather was amplified by dew points in the mid 60s. A stationary connecting boundary between a strong area of low pressure in New England and the warm front associated with a low in the Upper Midwest was triggering a few isolated storms in central Illinois. There is a broad upper level ridge across the Mississippi Valley otherwise, with any instability arising from the southerly flow and associated Gulf moisture.
The upper level waive generating showers and storms in the Upper Midwest will be absorbed into the broader ridge structure, and dissipate, but before it does it will encourage a more robust southerly flow and more widespread showers and storms through tomorrow afternoon in Missouri. Any cool down will be short lived as the region will still be encompassed by upper level ridging. Another feature will ride the northern end of the ridge, and may bring another late round of showers and isolted thunderstorms to Columbia late on Tuesday, though most of the activity will be well to the north.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, hot. High 92, Low 73
Tuesday – A little clearer, still hot, with some isolated showers and storms, High 93, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 93, Low 70
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 93, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm and humid with periods of clouds and sun; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm around High 90, Low 72
Tuesday – Partly sunny and humid; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in spots High 91, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 92, Low, 71
Tuesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 92, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 90, Low 72
Tuesday – Partly sunny with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 91, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 93, Low 72
Tuesday – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 91, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 91, Low 71
Tuesday – Rain overnight.High 94, Low 71

It’s hot and probably going to rain, I think that is the consensus. But when is it going to rain? That we aren’t so sure about. Here is the shower activity presently on radar

Columbia

Columbia, South Carolina to Wichita, Kansas

We’re off for a late week road trip, one that will allow us to cover much of the southern US in the hottest time of the year. That’s what everyone wants, right? That’s fun? It will be a 1173 mile journey at a pace of about 65mph. Our first day will be shorter than the second, and cover 519.7 miles. For the love of God, the AC had better work.

DAY ONE (Thursday)
Columbia
The good news is that it will be dry in South Carolina. The bad news, of course, is that it will be rather warm. Furthermore, when we get to the Atlanta area, showers and thunderstorms will begin to crop up. A descending ridge will help trigger stronger thunderstorms at the southern periphery of the feature. While convection will be heaviest in Tennessee, we will also see more robust convection through northern Mississippi. That’s mostly because it will be during peak heating that we pass through the area. The day will end in hot, humid and stormy Glenfield, Mississippi, which is near New Albany.

DAY TWO (Friday)
There will be the slightest of chances for a stray thunderstorm for much of the morning, with no greater a chance than for the stretch between Forrest City and Little Rock in Arkansas. After that, however, a funny thing will happen. Despite a weak lee low developing in the southern Plains, the increasing afternoon heat will help stabilize the atmosphere. It’s going to be very warm when we arrive in Wichita, thanks in large part to the blistering July sun.

Aerial of the Downtown Skyline of Wichita, Kansas with the Arkansas River and the Lawrence-Dumont Stadium in the Foreground

Aerial of the Downtown Skyline of Wichita, Kansas with the Arkansas River and the Lawrence-Dumont Stadium in the Foreground

A best case scenario

A sloppy, nasty storm brought a variable combination of rain, freezing rain and sleet to Tennessee, north Georgia and the Piedmont areas of the Carolinas. In Columbia, the system brought rain that started in the evening on Monday and continued through much of the morning on Tuesday. It shifted out the capital city while the temperature was 33 degrees, just before sunrise. Temperatures warmed away from freezing soon after precipitation ended, and there was no freezing rain, no sleet, and no refreeze on roadways. It really couldn’t have gone better (aside from it not raining at all and being about 30 degrees warmer, of course) Weatherbug had their second victory in a row.
Actuals: Monday – .12 inches of rain, High 42, Low 30
Tuesday – .43 inches of rain, High 39, Low 32

Grade: C-D

Columbia, South Carolina

Finally, we’re heading into the teeth of the tiger. There is yet another system coming together over the Ozarks and preparing to make its way towards the East Coast. What does the future hold for the Palmetto State?

At 653PM, ET Columbia was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The Carolinas are between systems right now, with the remnants of the New England blizzard hanging off shore and a developing wave at the base of a surface ridge beginning to produce precipitation in the ArkLaTex.
The wave developing south of the Ozarks is part of a convergence zone between two jets aloft. While a northern jet trough will help suppress the wave as it develops, the undercutting jet will be a source of moisture on destabilization. The jets will eventually fold into one, and the wave will begin to develop some cyclonic signatures, including a northeasterly turn along the Appalachians. As a result, Columbia will be spared wintry precipitation, though some thunderstorms will be possible in the morning on Tuesday as the cold front sweeps through town. Dry, chilly conditions will chase the boundary out by evening. Unusually, the system will be so strong and bring enough warm air northward that initially, Columbia will be warmer post frontally on Tuesday than will be during the day on Monday with clear skies.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, chance of showers before midnight. High 40, Low 22
Tuesday – Rain early with a rumble of thunder. High 47, Low 33

TWC: Tomorrow – PM Showers, High 45, Low 25
Tuesday – AM Clouds/PM Sun (early rain): High 51, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Sun followed by increasing clouds with a little rain late in the afternoon High 48, Low 26
Tuesday – Cloudy (morning rain) High 52, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy High 42, Low 23
Tuesday – A chance of rain, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, High 46. Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain High 39, Low 23
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain and freezing rain. High 42, Low 34

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Rain High 43, Low 23
Tuesday – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers High 46, Low 37

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the evening. High 43, Low 29
Tuesday – Rain in the morning. High 49, Low 38

Temperature curves are not reflecting the output guidance, which is a way of saying that “nobody knows what the heck to do with temperatures”. There is a chance that temperatures will be non standard on Tuesday, but most outlets don’t think so, instead expecting temperatures to be so warm post frontally during the day that overnight Tuesday night will normalize the curve. Anyways, ask me if you don’t understand any of that. This impressive satellite imagery shows a vast area of low pressure over the north Atlantic and another wave in the south central US.
Columbia

Masterful in Missouri

There was some model guidance that insisted upon a weak wave moving through the southern Plains before turning north into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday, but right thinking forecasters recognized that that guidance was nonsense. Half of the forecasters in Columbia called for rain, and were wrong, while the other half, including Accuweather, who missed by a mere 2 degrees on their temperatures, properly foresaw high pressure squashing any convective development and preventing rain showers. As you may have figured, Accuweather’s solid performance and easily won the top spot.
Actuals: Thursday – High 79, Low 54
Friday – High 80, Low 59

Grade: A

Columbia, Missouri

Taking a quick look at central Missouri and the home of hte University of Missouri with our forecast today.

At 154pm, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. An upper level trouggh is departing, which means that a return to more seasonable warmth is on its way, beginning as soon as they can see some clearing skies.
As high pressure builds over the Great Lakes, the Gulf will open up on the western flank, with warm, humid air being drawn through Missouri. Lee troughing over the southern Rockies will be able to develop and begin approaching the Ozarks by tomorrow evening. Some guidance suggests available vorticity that really doesn’t make much sense given the upper level dynamics. Guidance that doe make sense insists a lee trough attempting to advance into the southern Plains will be squashed south towards the Gulf of Mexico, while Colummbia will see mostly clouy skies, but will otherwise stay dry, if a bit on the muggy side.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, increasing clouds, High 80, Low 57
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 80, Low 57
Friday – Mostly Sunny High 78, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasant High 79, Low 55
Friday – Partly sunny and nice High 80, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny High 76, Low 56
Friday – Mostly sunny High 78, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning…then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. High 76, Low 56
Friday – Partly cloudy. High 78, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 75, Low 55
Friday – Partly Cloudy Hgh 79, Low 59

A few outlets are buying into the shower and storm threat tomorrow evening, but I think if there is anything, it would be on Friday morning. More likely, there won’t be a drop. Satellite showws some good old fashioned cumulus clouds.
Columbia

Cooler weather prevails

The forecast in Columbia was for a cold front to finish moving through the city on Saturday morning, giving way to a more pleasant, if cooler weekend. Well, the thing is, it was even cooler than most anticipated. The bottom dropped out Sunday, as temperatures dropped to 34, and only climbed up to 49 during the day. The top forecast belonged to Weatherbug (really?) who was the coolest outlet on Sunday, both for the high and the low.
Actuals: Saturday – .38 inches of rain, High 61, Low 43
Sunday – High 49, Low 34

Grade: B