Tag Archives: Columbia

A best case scenario

A sloppy, nasty storm brought a variable combination of rain, freezing rain and sleet to Tennessee, north Georgia and the Piedmont areas of the Carolinas. In Columbia, the system brought rain that started in the evening on Monday and continued through much of the morning on Tuesday. It shifted out the capital city while the temperature was 33 degrees, just before sunrise. Temperatures warmed away from freezing soon after precipitation ended, and there was no freezing rain, no sleet, and no refreeze on roadways. It really couldn’t have gone better (aside from it not raining at all and being about 30 degrees warmer, of course) Weatherbug had their second victory in a row.
Actuals: Monday – .12 inches of rain, High 42, Low 30
Tuesday – .43 inches of rain, High 39, Low 32

Grade: C-D

Columbia, South Carolina

Finally, we’re heading into the teeth of the tiger. There is yet another system coming together over the Ozarks and preparing to make its way towards the East Coast. What does the future hold for the Palmetto State?

At 653PM, ET Columbia was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The Carolinas are between systems right now, with the remnants of the New England blizzard hanging off shore and a developing wave at the base of a surface ridge beginning to produce precipitation in the ArkLaTex.
The wave developing south of the Ozarks is part of a convergence zone between two jets aloft. While a northern jet trough will help suppress the wave as it develops, the undercutting jet will be a source of moisture on destabilization. The jets will eventually fold into one, and the wave will begin to develop some cyclonic signatures, including a northeasterly turn along the Appalachians. As a result, Columbia will be spared wintry precipitation, though some thunderstorms will be possible in the morning on Tuesday as the cold front sweeps through town. Dry, chilly conditions will chase the boundary out by evening. Unusually, the system will be so strong and bring enough warm air northward that initially, Columbia will be warmer post frontally on Tuesday than will be during the day on Monday with clear skies.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, chance of showers before midnight. High 40, Low 22
Tuesday – Rain early with a rumble of thunder. High 47, Low 33

TWC: Tomorrow – PM Showers, High 45, Low 25
Tuesday – AM Clouds/PM Sun (early rain): High 51, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Sun followed by increasing clouds with a little rain late in the afternoon High 48, Low 26
Tuesday – Cloudy (morning rain) High 52, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy High 42, Low 23
Tuesday – A chance of rain, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, High 46. Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain High 39, Low 23
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain and freezing rain. High 42, Low 34

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Rain High 43, Low 23
Tuesday – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers High 46, Low 37

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the evening. High 43, Low 29
Tuesday – Rain in the morning. High 49, Low 38

Temperature curves are not reflecting the output guidance, which is a way of saying that “nobody knows what the heck to do with temperatures”. There is a chance that temperatures will be non standard on Tuesday, but most outlets don’t think so, instead expecting temperatures to be so warm post frontally during the day that overnight Tuesday night will normalize the curve. Anyways, ask me if you don’t understand any of that. This impressive satellite imagery shows a vast area of low pressure over the north Atlantic and another wave in the south central US.

Masterful in Missouri

There was some model guidance that insisted upon a weak wave moving through the southern Plains before turning north into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday, but right thinking forecasters recognized that that guidance was nonsense. Half of the forecasters in Columbia called for rain, and were wrong, while the other half, including Accuweather, who missed by a mere 2 degrees on their temperatures, properly foresaw high pressure squashing any convective development and preventing rain showers. As you may have figured, Accuweather’s solid performance and easily won the top spot.
Actuals: Thursday – High 79, Low 54
Friday – High 80, Low 59

Grade: A

Columbia, Missouri

Taking a quick look at central Missouri and the home of hte University of Missouri with our forecast today.

At 154pm, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. An upper level trouggh is departing, which means that a return to more seasonable warmth is on its way, beginning as soon as they can see some clearing skies.
As high pressure builds over the Great Lakes, the Gulf will open up on the western flank, with warm, humid air being drawn through Missouri. Lee troughing over the southern Rockies will be able to develop and begin approaching the Ozarks by tomorrow evening. Some guidance suggests available vorticity that really doesn’t make much sense given the upper level dynamics. Guidance that doe make sense insists a lee trough attempting to advance into the southern Plains will be squashed south towards the Gulf of Mexico, while Colummbia will see mostly clouy skies, but will otherwise stay dry, if a bit on the muggy side.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, increasing clouds, High 80, Low 57
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 80, Low 57
Friday – Mostly Sunny High 78, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasant High 79, Low 55
Friday – Partly sunny and nice High 80, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny High 76, Low 56
Friday – Mostly sunny High 78, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning…then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. High 76, Low 56
Friday – Partly cloudy. High 78, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 75, Low 55
Friday – Partly Cloudy Hgh 79, Low 59

A few outlets are buying into the shower and storm threat tomorrow evening, but I think if there is anything, it would be on Friday morning. More likely, there won’t be a drop. Satellite showws some good old fashioned cumulus clouds.

Cooler weather prevails

The forecast in Columbia was for a cold front to finish moving through the city on Saturday morning, giving way to a more pleasant, if cooler weekend. Well, the thing is, it was even cooler than most anticipated. The bottom dropped out Sunday, as temperatures dropped to 34, and only climbed up to 49 during the day. The top forecast belonged to Weatherbug (really?) who was the coolest outlet on Sunday, both for the high and the low.
Actuals: Saturday – .38 inches of rain, High 61, Low 43
Sunday – High 49, Low 34

Grade: B

Columbia, Missouri

Today we head off to the city that’s home to the popular University of Missouri, Columbia! I’ve visited there a couple of times myself and it really is a nice campus in a rather active city. Will they be winding their way towards finals with some good weather? Let’s find out!

At 10:54pm CDT, the temperature at Columbia, MO is 45 degrees with some light rain falling. An area of low pressure is finally pushing out of the Four Corners area and into the Central Plains. Earlier this afternoon, a squall line ahead of the cold front produced some 60-75 mph wind gusts in the TX Panhandle, as well as one of the only December tornadoes in the Amarillo area. This activity has shifted off to the east and weakened, but the precip associated with the low spent much of the day pushing through the Central Plains and Mid-MS River Valley. Some of these showers are expected to last through the early morning hours Saturday, but pretty much trail off shortly after dawn as the system continues to push towards the north and east. Some clearing is expected on the backside of this system, allowing temperatures to push up towards the low 60s. Sunday, however, will see the cooler air behind the system wraparound and into the area. So even though there should be more abundant sunshine for central Missouri, temperatures will be a good 5-10 degrees cooler than they will be Saturday afternoon. Overall though, it should be a decent weekend to get out and get some of that last minute Christmas shopping done!

Saturday: Showers trail off by mid-morning, some afternoon clearing. High 60, Low 44.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, but cooler. High 54, Low 40.

TWC: Saturday: Few AM showers, then partly cloudy, and windy. High 59, Low 44.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High 50, Low 39.

AW: Saturday: A bit of morning rain, then cloudy. High 62, Low 43.
Sunday: Partly sunny. High 52, Low 39.

NWS: Saturday: Some early morning showers, then gradual clearing. High 61, Low 43.
Sunday: Partly Sunny. High 54, Low 39.

WB: Saturday: Mostly Cloudy, a few morning showers. High 62, Low 43.
Sunday: Partly sunny. High 50, Low 39.

Here we see the bands of rain swing through Missouri. Luckily, they shouldn’t last too long into the morning hours.

Isaac Invades Inland

Isaac hasn’t been a hurricane or a tropical storm or anything like that for days now. Instead, he is a massive rain maker over the middle of the country. We worried about Columbia on Thursday, and on Friday, our worries were validated, as over 2 inches of rain fell. There was a little less yesterday, but all told, 2.5″ inches of rain fell throughout a cloudy, murky beginning to the Labor Day weekend. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday – 2.23 inches of rain, High 79, Low 73
Saturday – .22 inches of rain, High 78, Low 71

Grade: B

Columbia, Missouri

Columbia is host to some college football action Saturday, as the Missouri Tigers take on Southeast Louisiana State in the season opener. Both teams can talk about Hurricane Isaac.

At 654PM, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 94 degrees with sunny skies. Easterly flow has already begun in response to Tropical Depression Isaac, which is inundating Louisiana and Arkansas, is centered near Ruston, Louisiana and is bleeding northwest, but is soon to be shunted back to the east by a remnant boundary through the Ohio Valley.
Rain will move into Columbia on a feeder band tomorrow after sunrise, and start the day with heavy rain and thunderstorms. Isaac will do his most rapid collapsing over western Missouri over the next 24 hours. Those initial heavy rain and thunderstorms will become steady rain with fairly breezy conditions. Initially, the the showers and storms may be coupled with a tornado threat, but that will abate later in the period.
Tomorrow – Heavy rain and thunderstorms early, becoming lighter in the afternoon, High 83, Low 68
Saturday – Rain, High 80, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain / Thunder High 82, Low 72
Saturday – Rain / Thunder High 81, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness and humid; a couple of afternoon showers and a thunderstorm High 83, Low 70
Saturday – A thick cloud cover, breezy and humid with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 76, Low 72

NWS: Occasional rain, mainly after 1pm. High 85, Low 69
Saturday – Occasional rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High 79, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning…then occasional rain in the afternoon. High 86, Low 70
Saturday – Occasional rain. Rain heavy at times. High 78, Low 73

The rain is coming, but at least Isaac doesn’t look as terrifying on satellite.

Columbia, Missouri to Dover, Delaware

Our first road trip of the week takes us to America’s First State, even if it is just a tiny little guy wedged onto the Delmarva. Our trip is covering 2 days and 1031 miles. The rate of speed for this trek will be a little over 60mph, and we will knock out only 481 miles on our first day on the road. This is what we get for heading crosswise into the Atlantic Seaboard.


There is a cold front moving into the Dakotas and northern Minnesota at this very hour, and it is extremely fast moving. Thre is a ton of momentum with this storm, and there will continue to be as the parent low deepens over Ontario. This means that the front and it’s associated storms will actually be able to overtake our vehicle. Storms moving this fast are destined to leave a wide swath of destruction, so buckle up. The system will slow down after it hits central Illinois, so the greatest threat to our health and safety will be early in the drive, with gusty winds moving through St. Louis and east to Vandalia, Illinois along our route. It will still storm even as we head east to Indianapolis, but the activity will not be quite as horribly dangerous as it will be during the first part of our drive. After white knuckling it, a good night’s rest will be exactly what we need. The day ends just east of Indy in Greenfield.

The front will slow down as it heads east, as they often do. We will encounter the back end of the rain around Zanesville, Ohio, and encounter the heaviest storms through the high country of West Virginia and western Maryland. We will clear the front as we head into Baltimore, but at this point, downsloping winds will interact with the moisture along the coast, and our drive over the Chesapeake Bay Bridge may be a little terrifying, especially with the potential for some large hail in those isolated storms. The trip through the Eastern Shore will be mild by comparison.

Not as advertised

Every day for the last several days, every model run, the forecast has been for widespread showers and storms, along the east coast, today in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, but there just hasn’t been any forcing. The savvy meteorologist downplayed thunderstorms in Columbia for the past two days. Sure, there was a little bit more instability on Monday, and they saw some rain in Columbia then, but none as we expected, on Sunday. Victoria-Weather, thereby, got the top spot.
Actuals: Sunday, High 75, Low 49
Monday, .05 inches of rain, High 76, Low 58

Grade: B