Finally, we’re heading into the teeth of the tiger. There is yet another system coming together over the Ozarks and preparing to make its way towards the East Coast. What does the future hold for the Palmetto State?
At 653PM, ET Columbia was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The Carolinas are between systems right now, with the remnants of the New England blizzard hanging off shore and a developing wave at the base of a surface ridge beginning to produce precipitation in the ArkLaTex.
The wave developing south of the Ozarks is part of a convergence zone between two jets aloft. While a northern jet trough will help suppress the wave as it develops, the undercutting jet will be a source of moisture on destabilization. The jets will eventually fold into one, and the wave will begin to develop some cyclonic signatures, including a northeasterly turn along the Appalachians. As a result, Columbia will be spared wintry precipitation, though some thunderstorms will be possible in the morning on Tuesday as the cold front sweeps through town. Dry, chilly conditions will chase the boundary out by evening. Unusually, the system will be so strong and bring enough warm air northward that initially, Columbia will be warmer post frontally on Tuesday than will be during the day on Monday with clear skies.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, chance of showers before midnight. High 40, Low 22
Tuesday – Rain early with a rumble of thunder. High 47, Low 33
TWC: Tomorrow – PM Showers, High 45, Low 25
Tuesday – AM Clouds/PM Sun (early rain): High 51, Low 40
AW: Tomorrow – Sun followed by increasing clouds with a little rain late in the afternoon High 48, Low 26
Tuesday – Cloudy (morning rain) High 52, Low 37
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy High 42, Low 23
Tuesday – A chance of rain, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, High 46. Low 36
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain High 39, Low 23
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain and freezing rain. High 42, Low 34
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Rain High 43, Low 23
Tuesday – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers High 46, Low 37
FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the evening. High 43, Low 29
Tuesday – Rain in the morning. High 49, Low 38
Temperature curves are not reflecting the output guidance, which is a way of saying that “nobody knows what the heck to do with temperatures”. There is a chance that temperatures will be non standard on Tuesday, but most outlets don’t think so, instead expecting temperatures to be so warm post frontally during the day that overnight Tuesday night will normalize the curve. Anyways, ask me if you don’t understand any of that. This impressive satellite imagery shows a vast area of low pressure over the north Atlantic and another wave in the south central US.