Tag Archives: Brownsville

Off the mark

The big problem with the weather in the deep south of Texas was how clear the skies were overnight. Temperatures in Brownsville dropped to the low 40s, which is quite chilly that far to the south. It also prevented temperatures from warming up past the mid 70s, which was an unexpected consequence. Most of the error did lie in how far temperatures dropped overnight, which meant there were no truly top flight forecasts, and the lackk of day time recovery meant that there were some particularly bad marks as well. The Weather Service and Weatherbug combined for the top forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – High 75, Low 42
Friday – High 74, Low 46

Grade: B-D

Brownsville, Texas

Hello, it’s time for a little trip to South Texas. How faar south does winter reach?

At 753PM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 56 degrees with clear skies. Brownsville was at the southwestern end of a deep trough that had produced severe weather in the southeast and continues to do so along the east coast. Northwesterly flow is bringing cooler drier air into Brownsville, which should lead to an unseasonably chilly night tonight in Brownsville.
The pattern aloft will dampen. The mid level air from the Plains will no longer be available, which will allow Brownsville to warm up naturally. Some clouds will develop thanks to the mid-level moisture returning to the region on Friday, but a mostly pleasant couple of days are ahead.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 78, Low 44
Friday – Partly cloudy High 77, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies, High 77, Low 46
Friday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny, High 74, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 76, Low 42
Friday – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant High 76, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 77, Low 42
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 42
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 77, Low 41
Friday – Mostly Sunny High 75, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 51
Friday – Partly cloudy in the evening. High 77, Low 57

Nice to have just a simple, mostly clear forecast. I expect some good scores here.

Wet weather for the Rio Grande

Brownsville wasn’t threatened by the strong system that brought snow to the Upper Midwest on Thanksgiving and is supplying ice to the southern Plains at this hour, at least, not in the same way. There was never any freezing or subfreezing weather weather, really at any applicable level over Brownsville, and especially not at the surface. The moisture rich flow feeding all the inclement weather, however, was alive and well, and both Wednesday and Thursday, there were some fairly significant rains. It’s about as bad as it gets in Brownsville, because temperatures were still in the 70s ad 80s. Accuweather and Weatherbug were the odd couple that drew level for the day.
Actuals: Monday – .20 inches of rain, High 79, Low 71
Tuesday – .11 inches of rain, High 84, Low 75

Grade: B-C

Brownsville, Texas

Hello again from Victoria-Weather. We’re headed way down to far southern Texas for this mid-week forecast.

At 853PM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with overcast skies. There was a steady onshore flow across the southern portion of Texas which was producing the mid level overcast. A broad upper level trough over the Rockies is helping to encourage the onshore flow, but Brownsville is far enough south that dramatic changes aren’t expected.
As surface troughing emerges in the northern Plains, the Gulf will open up a bit more. Expect a little bit of light rain in central Texas, but Brownsville along the Rio Grande in far southern Texas is too far to the south to get caught in the moist flow, and Brownsville will be overcast but dry tomorrow. The mean upper level trough will move into the Plains and will really start churning up showers and thunderstorms from Kansas to west Texas, and will pull enough cold air in the back side to produce snow. This more vigorous wave will also mean a better chance at some light rain in Brownsville, as a more moisture laden flow presses through south Texas. Of course, the richer flow will also be more southerly, and temperatures will start to climb behind those southerly winds.
Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 79, Low 68
Thanksgiving – Chance of rain, otherwise cloudy, High 83, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Showers, High 79, Low 68
Thanksgiving – Cloudy, High 82, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower in the area High 79, Low 68
Thanksgiving – Mostly cloudy and breezy with a shower in the area High 83, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 68
Thanksgiving – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers, High 81, Low 68
Thanksgiving – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 84, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 81, Low 68
Thanksgiving – Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 82, Low 73

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 82, Low 70
Thanksgiving – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 85, Low 72

Brownsville will get brushed by precipitation, but in general, they will be watching the mania unfold well to the north for the Holiday weekend. Here’s the satellite imagery of Texas tonight, showing some milky clouds down wind of the Gulf.
Brownsville

Brownsville, Texas

OK, so when we plan ahead for these forecasts, we do so without looking at the forecast, so as to make the “competition” aspect of everything as fair as possible. We’re not just out to avoid the massive systems, it’s just lucky, I guess. Let’s see what we have going on in south Texas.

At 653PM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with overcast skies. Much of the border region was covered in overcast, as an area of low pressure over the Gulf of California is inducing flow off the Gulf, thereby producing mid level overcast. Fortunately, there isn’t much to work with in terms of a trigger, and the area will be rain-free.
Upper level ridging will squelch the cut off trough over Mexico, which will help to end the easterly flow in Brownsville. The flow will be rather meandering through Sunday morning, which will result in more morning fog and ceilings through Sunday. An undercutting jet will assist in the production of a low level wave. That wave will produce a surface boundary producing heavy rain and generating a vigorous, warm flow through Brownsville on Sunday evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 60
Sunday – Cloudy early, then warming, High 76, Low 61.

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 58
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 76. Low, 60

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and comfortable High 75, Low 56
Sunday – Mostly cloudy and breezy with a shower in places High 75, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 75, Low 58
Sunday – Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. High 75, Low 58
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain HIgh 75, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Patchy Fog High 75, Low 59
Sunday – Mostly Cloudy High 75, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 75, Low 61
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 62

Boy, I feel a little out of place without a forecast high of 75 tomorrow. I don’t think I noticed anything special, that’s just the number I came up with. This was an easier forecast than, say, Boston. Here is the satellite, showing high topped clouds produced by the system over the Baja Peninsula.
Brownsville

Brownsville, Texas to Madison, Wisconsin

We’re taking off bright and early Saturday morning on this excursion, so be prepared! It will take us through Monday to get from Brownsville to Madison, which surely is less time than you expected, right? Part of the reason the drive is so short is because we will be able to cover the ground on I-35 so quickly. We will be moving at a pace of 65.5mph, which allows us to cover 525 miles a day. Not bad at all.

DAY ONE (Saturday)
Brownsville
This forecast is unusual for the lateness in which we are issuing it, because we can look at radar and decide whether or not we will see rain to begin the day. Gulf Coastal storms are developing early around Corpus Christi, so when we arrive there to take a turn towards San Antonio, we may see a brief deluge. That’s a good descriptor for the state of Texas today, frankly. We will get out of the wet weather soon after turning inland from Corpus Christi, and the trip through San Antonio and Austin should be dry, but around Temple, the threat for storms will reemerge. The threat will only increase as we head north, as a surface boundary works into the Metroplex. Storms won’t be well organized or anything, so we may see clear skies when we arrive, but it seems more likely that there will be rain around when we hit the south side of Fort Worth. Some of the storms will bring torrential rain, as they always do in Texas.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
Lingering showers, perhaps even a rogue thunderstorm will remain over the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and we could see a shower as far north as Oklahoma City, but never fear, high pressure isn’t far behind. Tune into the radio, and you will probably hear the Chiefs game, because there isn’t much else to be concerned about in Kansas. The day will end in a different college town, Lawrence.

DAY THREE (Monday)
Monday will be the easiest driving day of the bunch. There shouldn’t be a problem at all as we progress from Lawrence, through Kansas City and St. Louis north in the state capital of Wisconsin. Temperatures in Madison will even be experiencing the last summer like warm up before a nasty storm moves in during the middle of the week.
Madison

Brownsville, Texas to Boulder, Colorado

We’re going to get moving away from the city of Brownsville and head towards the mountains of Colorado. It’s a 2 1/2 day trek, which will proceed at a pace of 63.2mph, or 506 miles a day for those first two days. Typically, these would be some dusty roads, but I don’t think that will be the case as we head through the Plains!

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Brownsville
While there has been quite a bit of rainfall over Texas, it is starting to pivot a little bit to the east. There will be some clouds and maybe a few showers as we begin the day driving north to Corpus Christi and northwest to San Antonio. The bulk of the activity through the day will be in the center and eastern part of the state, but out route will take us essentially on the back edge of precipitation. This will mean some scattered showers, and in such an arid environment, the precip field may not be as vast as the models suggest. The day will carry us to Bronte, Texas, which is between San Angelelo and Abilene, and it will probably be dry, but that won’t be a given. Guidance certainly doesn’t think so.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
Aha, here is the dry weather we have been looking for. There is a little bit of an upper level trough that will help usher the rain from West Texas. Another lee trough will set up on Wednesday, and there may be an isolated shower along the Front Range by afternoon, but our day will take us to Wiley, which isn’t quite there yet.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
The lee troughing will continue unchecked unless we do something about it. Of course, we literally cannot do anything about it. As we get to I-25 and head north, expect a pretty good chance at spotty showers the rest of the way into Boulder.
Boulder

Rochester, New York to Brownsville, Texas

We seem to be taking a lot of trips from the deep south of Texas lately. Well, two, I guess. This time, we will be headed there from western New York over the course of 3 1/2 days, Rochester and Brownsville are 1905 miles apart, and the pace we have set will be 64.3 an hour, or 514.4 miles on days 1-3, leaving a shorter day to finish off. Let’s make a run for the border.

DAY ONE (Monday)
RochesterNY
High pressure only has a little bit of time left as the dominant feature of the Great Lakes before surface forcing starts to supersede the weakened summer upper level dynamics. Tomorrow is pretty much the last day that we will be ably to make a jaunt from Rchester to Florence, Kentucky (in the Cincinnati metro area) with little threat of a thunderstorm. When we get to the Cincinnati area, the threat for clouds and maybe a spot of drizzle will begin to rachet up, bu it’s not something I would feel terribly concerned about.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
The center of the country will be working under an upper level ridge, yet the forecast, thanks t the preponderance of moisture brought forth by the Gulf and the remnants of energy descending from the Rockies is going to lead to a very summer like pattern of free convection. There isn’t much to suggest a very organized pattern on Tuesday, but wth topography in the Appalachians and the potential for a dry line in the southern Plains, it seems more likely that activity will be possible in those particular areas. Truth be told, though, model guidance isn’t great at handling summer time convection, and it’s even worse 2 full days ahead of time. There is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm pretty much for the entire day, which will take us to Forest City, Arkansas, between Little Rock and Memphis.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
It does seem pretty universally agreed upon that rain and embedded thunderstorms will be far more likely nearer to the source of the moisture filtering into the center of the country. Across the board, the computer guidance suggests heavier rain in the Texarkana area south towards Houston. We should expect to contend with a few showers through the rest of Arkansas, but the rain will be more constant and torrential through eastern Texas. There will probably be some thunder in there too. It’s that time of year. We’ll get to Houston by the end of the day.

DAY FOUR (Thursday)
Onshore flow has been constant lately in the western Gulf of Mexico. It’s led to clouds that have been nearly constant, but with the environment becoming increasingly destabilized over the next few days, it seems fairly likely that those clouds will be joined by showers for the last few hours of our journey. It certainly won’t be as significant as the activity that we will see on Wednesday, but it will be a bit of a bummer.

Brownsville

One last hot spot

Winter is coming, ladies and gentlemen. It’s been slow to arrive so far, but I assure you it is on its way. Brownsville, Texas is definitely not one of those cities that has to worry about the impending change of seasons. The high temperature each of the past two days hit the mid 80s, despite some showers overnight Sunday into Monday. The low temperature plummeted, however, dropping all the way to 53 on Monday morning. The Weather Service had the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – Trace of rain, High 85, Low 70
Monday – Trace of rain, High 83, Low 53

Grade: C

Brownsville, Texas

Just across the Mexican border for today’s forecast. Come along with us.

At 316PM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A cold front associated with a system in the Upper Midwest has lagged over the Texas Coast, and was producing the clouds over Brownsville, as well as a few showers over the Texas coast.
The base of the upper trough is actually in the desert Southwest, so the northern US system will begin to languish. Still, as the jet trough pivots eastward, a secondary low will develop in the southern Plains along the boundary, causing precipitation to amplify along the Texas Coast by Sunday evening into Monday morning, filling south to Brownsville. There might be some thunderstorm activity, including some isolated gusty winds.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms late, High 81, Low 68
Monday – Morning rain, then clear and cooler, High 79, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 83, Low 70
Monday – AM Showers High 80, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Warm and humid with times of sun and clouds (rain after 11) High 82, Low 68
Monday – A shower in spots early in the morning; otherwise, clouds yielding to some sun High 79, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, High 83, Low 69
Monday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am. Mostly sunny High 82, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83, Low 69
Monday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 79, Low 61

Satellite doesn’t really show much structure to the clouds over Texas, but there is a boundary up around Houston and Victoria.
Brownsville