Passing showers pass by

There was a threat of some showers cycling through south Texas on the back of tropical storm Karl, which was spinning down in the Bay of Campeche. Tropical storms, until the reach land, tend to draw moisture towards themselves, and this was the case in Brownsville in the middle of October. It was hot and dry in Brownsville for our forecast period, which led to a forecast victory for WeatherNation, which had the combined success of a their piggybacking off of the Weather Service’s temperature forecast, and their own foresight to leave rain out of the forecast.
Actuals: October 14th, High 92, Low 74
October 15th, High 91, Low 74

Grade: A – B

Brownsville, Texas

Brownsville is part of a surprisingly well populated stretch in the far southern part of Texas, including Harlingen and McAllen. Brownsville is the furthest south, and closest to the Gulf of Mexico. It also happens to be significantly further from any town, excepting Harlingen and McAllen, than anyone really expects.

At 953AM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with clear skies. A dry line was spread through central Texas, and while the Dallas area had dew points in the the 40s, it was already in the mid 70s along the Rio Grande. There was a threat for strong thunderstorms closer to Corpus Christi this afternoon, and some of those shower and thunderstorms flaring south towards Brownsville can’t be ruled out later today. Additionally, Tropical Storm Karl was churning away in the Bay of Campeche. Tropical Storm Warnings extended to Matamoros on the other side of the Rio Grande, but his presence only raised the threat for coastal thunderstorms this afternoon.
Karl is moving southward, expected to landfall near Coatzcoalcos on the Campeche coast, so the attention will be turned to the dry line to the north of Brownsville. Without the counterclockwise rotation from Karl, the dry line will lose it’s potency as well. The dry line dichotomy will linger through the period, but the threat for showers and storms will abate over deep south Texas. As Karl continues to waste away in Central America, Brownsville will be more stable than normal for a hot humid stretch, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures preparing to climb.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 73
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 89, Low 73
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 92, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon High 90, Low 73
Saturday – Partly sunny and humid; breezy in the afternoon High 91, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 90, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, high 90, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 74

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 73
Saturday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 73

Its strange that the driest forecast is the coolest forecast. Strange. Karl is showing up dramatically on the Gulf satellite imagery.

Border battle

Usually, when we talk about border battles in sports we are talking about two states that share a border playing each other. In this case, we are just talking about the very tight forecast fight in Brownsville as January turned to February. January ended with a splash of rain and unusually cool temperatures. February started a little brighter, especially for WeatherNation who had the best forecast on February 1st, missing only by one degree on the morning low, and pegging the 71 degree high. They earned the very rare solo victory after diverging from the NWS forecast.
Actuals: Friday, Jan. 31st. .1 inches of rain, High 66, Low 53
Saturday, Feb 1st, High 71, Low 49

Grade: A-B

Brownsville, Texas

Throughout most of the summer, the deep south of Texas is so hot and far removed from the jet stream, there is nothing interesting about the weather. How will it be as we visit in late January and February?

At 153PM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with overcast skies. The overcast conditions spread through the center of the country, from border to border, as a deep upper level trough settled into the country.
The base of the trough will continue to shift eastward overnight, with cold air chasing the clouds out of town, but not before bringing the threat of some light rain to the city in the early morning hours. Some cyclonic development will occur over the northern Gulf, which will encourage more dry air from the north into the afternoon. Saturday morning in particular will be quite cold, thanks to the clearer and northerly winds.
Tomorrow – Light rain early, High 64, Low 52
Saturday – Clearing and cooler, especially in the morning, High 70, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day (early showers) High 67, low 56
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 72, low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds giving way to some sun with a shower in spots early in the morning, then becoming breezy High 67, Low 58
Saturday – Sunshine and patchy clouds High 70, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy drizzle with a slight chance of rain before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 65, Low 51
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 69, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with with a 20% chance of rain showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 65, low 55
Saturday – Sunny, High 70, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 67, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain tonight and tomorrow morning. high 66, Low 56
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 52

Here is a look from the forecast from KRGV. They are an Accuweather outlet, so if their forecast looks a little familiar, that’s why.