It’s probably a good thing that we aren’t officially verifying the forecast for Ocean City. We knew that temperatures would be a little bit off because Ocean City doesn’t have an official observation point. We can still reference what happened in Atlantic City, though, and surmise that our forecasts wouldn’t have been great. There was a sharp spike in temperature as low pressure arrived to the west, scuttling any hopes of a successful forecast. Atlantic City reached 70 degrees on Monday, which was at least 10 degrees warmer than any outlet called for .The temperatures cooled off – the opposite of what was in the forecast – For Tuesday, as more rain moved in. All in all, good news that we won’t have to think about this forecast anymore.
We’re rolling cross country tonight, with a long road trip, lasting 5 1/2 days and stretching from one coast almost all the way to the other coast. The mileage will be 2964 miles,, which we will cover at a pace of 539 miles per day, or a little bit more that 67mph. This is going to be a long drive, but at least we will maintain a good pace. Head west, young meteorologist!
DAY ONE (Tuesday)
A weak area of low pressure is spiraling out of the Plains towards the mid-Atlantic. There has been a good deal of severe weather tonight associated with the cold front moving through the Tennessee Valley, but fortunately, as we leave the Ocean City beaches, we won’t have any severe weather with which to occupy our minds with. In fact, through the Philadelphia area, we won’t have any inclement weather disrupting travel. When we do encounter the system, it will be in the hills of Pennsylvania, and it will be in the stratiform rain portion of the system. No thunderstorms for us, but rather a few scattered showers between Harrisburg and Bedford. We should be out of the rain by the time he hit Pittsburgh, and the sun will be shining for the portion of our day spent in Ohio. We’ll stop in Bloomingville, just south of Sandusky, Ohio.
DAY TWO (Wednesday)
We will be between systems on Wedensday as we continue our westward progression towards the Golden State. Ohio, Indiana and Illinois will not present us with any weather worries, though here will be an increase in clouds as we reach western Illinois. The next system will be waiting in the Plains, but like our encounter in Pennsylvania, we will be too far north to worry about thunderstorms, rather seeing some scattered showers in eastern Iowa before pulling in for the night Williamsburg, between Iowa City and Des Moines.
DAY THREE (Thursday)
We are at the point where we are starting to see some divergence in the models. The NAM will keep rain in our route, some of it could include thunder and a brief downpour, all the way west to Grand Island, Nebraska. The GFS, on the other hand, thinks we will be done with rain by the time we reach Des Moines. I happen to think there will be a more abrupt cutoff, but I will officially say that rain will linger all the way to Omaha. That will give us the rest of Nebraska to enjoy in all of its sunlit splendor. We will finish the day in western Nebraska, in Roscoe.
DAY FOUR (Friday)
Another day, another system. This will bring about the added obstacle of snow showers as we hit the higher terrain in central Wyoming. It should be dry, but with increasing clouds until we hit Elk Mountain, but then we will start to see the mountain flurries and lower terrain rain showers. The good news is, we are late enough in the season that the snow levels will be pretty high up. The bad news is, when we hit them, it will be coming down like the dickens. We’ll cross into Utah before the day concludes, but only just. The day will end in Wahsatch, the first exit in the Beehive State.
DAY FIVE (Saturday)
The highlight of our Saturday will be passing through Salt Lake City, because we won’t really see much else on our drive. The sun will be out, and a dusty Great Basin day will unfold before us. We wiill make it to the Fallon area in Nevada, east of Reno before we call it a night. We could probably make it to Reno, because we can almost certainly drive a heck of a lot faster through Nevada than we said in the intro to this piece.
DAY SIX (Sunday)
Our Sunday will be just as weather-averse as our Saturday, but at least we will see Reno, Sacramento, Lake Tahoe and other things that end with the same sound. Merced will be comfortable, sunny and warm.
After we spent so much of yesterday in Texas, we’re going for a change of pace and headed to the Mid-Atlantic. The weather is always interesting up in that part of the world, so let’s see just how interesting it is today.
At 1054AM, ET, Atlantic City, the nearest reporting station to Ocean City, was reporting a temperature of 45 degrees with overcast skies. An area of low pressure sneaking out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes was drawing a low cloud deck off the Atlantic which promised to burn off as the day wears on.
That onshore flow was laden with warm, moist air, and as the initial round of clouds melts away, there is a chance that the instability of the advancing system coupled with the available moisture could touch off an isolated shower in the afternoon. The upper level pattern features two weak short waves, and the initial one is producing the activity in the Great Lakes right now, while the secondary wave is threatening a severe weather outbreak in Oklahoma this afternoon. Both will travel well northwest of the Jersey shore, and the Appalachians will intercept most of the moisture, but both promise some shower activity, with a light spot of rain on Monday with stronger thunderstorms on Tuesday with the second wave.
Tomorrow – Warmer with a spot of late drizzle, High 65, Low 48
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, with heavy rain and an embedded thunderstorm possible late, High 65, Low 50
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 62, Low 45
Tuesday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Low 50
AW: Tomorrow – Warmer; occasional rain and drizzle in the morning followed by a shower in spots in the afternoon High 59, Low 47
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 61, Low 50
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 43
Tuesday – A chance of showers. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, High 60, Low 47
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning. High 63, Low 45
Tuesday – Patchy fog in the morning. Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers, High 62, Low 51
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 61, Low 50
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 63, Low 52
FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 62, Low 48
Tuesday – Foggy until morning. High 63, Low 49
Unfortunately, Ocean City uses Atlantic City’s airport, and the arport is well inland from the coastal Ocean City, so we can’t officially verify this forecast. Here is a look at the clouds in the area. Hopefully they can burn off and make for a nicer afternoon than what seems on order.
Hey gang! Time for another road trip, and another one that is only going to take one day. Thanks Google Maps! It’s going to be a long day, covering the 631 miles between these two towns, but we will do it at a pace of 65mph, despite travel through Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia. We only have one day to worry about, but it will be trafficy and stormy. Let’s get a move on.
It’s going to be a terribly active day on the east coast, with a pair of weak eddies, one in the Gulf Stream and one over the Gulf feeding moisture to a cold front that will be preparing to traverse the Appalachians into the Carolinas and Virginia. We will be within those prefrontal, oceanic showers and storms through most of the morning while heavier rain, with some embedded thunderstorms develop over Virginia and North Carolina, generally west of our route. Guidance is unilateral in it’s suggestion that the heaviest plume of moisture we will encounter will be between Richmond and Manasssas in Virginia. After we have reached Washington, though, the heaviest rain will be behind us. There will still be chances for a random splash of rain, but from DC to Ocean City, it will be significantly drier than the first half of our journey. After we head southeast out of Philly, we may even be able to finish things off with an hour of dry skies.
Temperatures in southern New Jersey weren’t conducive to a trip to the beach as the week wound down. While Ocean City may be a pleasant summertime destination, a day in the 40s followed by a day in the 50s isn’t going to draw the crowds. That said, it’s November. Be glad there wasn’t a Nor’Easter. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast for the seasonable chill.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 45, Low 27
Thursday – 55, Low 30
We are off to the Jersey Shore for this afternoon’s forecast. Let’s see what the autumn has in store.
At 154PM, ET, Ocean City was seeing a vigorous northwesterly flow with gusts to 30mph with a temperature of 48 and clear skies. High pressure has built into the area behind a strong cold front, which lies over the western Atlantic. The strong westerly flow into the boundary is responsible for the gusty winds and scoured atmosphere in Ocean City.
The high will become more firmly entrenched over the area over the next 12 hours or so, which will help to calm the windy conditions. The general flow will change by Thursday, as the next strong system organizes in the central Plains. The ridge along the coast will be strong enough to prevent any rain from reaching Ocean City, but a southerly flow will bring some lower level moisture on shore, making Thursday night a touch cloudy.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with calmer winds, High 48, Low 29
Thursday – Increasing clouds, and a bit warmer, High 52, Low 28
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 49, Low 30
Thursday – Partly Cloudy High 54, Low 35
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 47, Low 31
Thursday – Partly sunny High 51, Low 35
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 49, Low 34
Thursday – Partly sunny High 53, Low 35
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 48, Low 33
Thursday – Partly sunny. High 52, Low 35
So no precipitation, but I can assure you that the coming weekend will not be a inviting in Ocean City. The choppy pattern to the clouds in Pennsylvania is indicative of gusty winds over the mountains.
Hello! I’m back! We will get through Saturday’s scheduled posts today since there will no forecasts on the agenda. First, we need to talk about the weather from Ocean City during the end of the work week last week. Andrea was generally well behaved, in that she followed the track that most had forecast, and she didn’t overstay her welcome. On Friday, she dropped 2.7 inches which, for a tropical system is small potatoes. Temperatures generally showed more variability than anyone anticipated, and The Weather Channel and Accuweather had the top forecasts.
Actuals Thursday – .06 inches of rain, High 73, Low 50
Friday – 2.7 inches of rain, High 81, Low 63
Today we’re off to the East Coast, as just a stone’s throw away from Atlantic City is Ocean City. What does the end of the workweek hold in store for this city by the waves? Let’s delve into the forecast…
At 1154pm EDT, the temperature at Ocean City, NJ was 60 degrees under fair skies. High pressure is being pushed out of the Northeast/New England as an occluded low pressure system over the Upper Midwest continues to push towards the Great Lakes. Scattered showers spread throughout the Ohio Valley earlier today and will slowly make their way to the coast tomorrow. Luckily, the rain won’t make it to the coast before sunset, so most of the day should be pleasant, yet cloudy. Showers will start filtering into the area by late evening. After that, the weather will take a turn for the worse on Friday. Currently, brand new Tropical Storm Andrea is in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and will start to accelerate tomorrow towards the northeast, over northern Florida and along the East Coast. Moisture associated with Andrea will move over the region on Friday, dropping some heavy rains. Some of the models are arguing over how fast this system will move away from the US, but in any event, Friday looks to be mostly a washout. Don’t forget those umbrellas!
Thursday: Increasing clouds during day, some showers after sunset. High 73, Low 57.
Friday: Heavy rains expected, along with a couple scattered thunderstorms as Andrea moves by. Breezy winds at times as well. High 75, Low 67.
TWC: Thursday: Partly cloudy, couple of late-evening showers. High 71, Low 58.
Friday: Heavy rain expected. High 71, Low 65.
AW: Thursday: Times of clouds and sun, showers increasing late. High 71, Low 57.
Friday: cloudy with thunderstorms, breezy. High 72, Low 65.
NWS: Thursday: Partly sunny, slight chance of late evening showers. High 70, Low 57.
Friday: Heavy rain expected. High 73, Low 65.
WB: Thursday: Partly sunny, some late evening showers. High 69, Low 59.
Friday: Showers and a couple thunderstorms. High 72, Low 65.
Our trip is short for Saturday, as we will only be moving from one state to the next state over. It’s a 5 hour drive that covers about 302 miles. It will be a slow way, because we won’t get to take the interstate too much, and we’ll only average 57mph. How will the day go? Let’s find out.
It’s been a very active couple of weeks to begin the summer across the northern tier of states. This won’t change for our trip through the Mid Atlantic on Saturday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the day, I suppose, but I wouldn’t worry about them until it’s around 1 in the afternoon, by which time we will be in Allentown, Pennsylvania. After that, some storms may follow us into Ocean City, but really, I just think it’s going to be dry and hot. Well, humid, but you know what I mean.