Tag Archives: Monroe

Thunderstorms and heat – summer in the south

There wasn’t a strong, well organized system expected to move into the southern United States as last week concluded, unless you think that the rotation and axial tilt of Earth is a strong, well organized system. Monroe saw just what every town in the south is constantly threatened by on Thursday and Friday. Hot weather with isolated thunderstorms in the area. The forecast was not a particular revelation, as the pattern was one that is seen the region over this time of year, so there is some justice in the fact that there was a four way tie atop the leaderboard. Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel, National Weather Service and Forecast.io all took a share of the lead.
Actuals: Thursday – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 92, Low 76
Friday – Thundestorms reported, not measured, High 95, Low 73

Grade: B

Memphis, Tennessee to Monroe, Louisiana

Short trip as we head closer to the weekend. We’re only covering 321 miles, on a trek that will last only half a day. We will keep a pace of 68.3mph, as we will keep it to the interstates.

Much as it has been for a few days now, there will be a band of showers and storms mirroring the more intense swath at the base of an upper level trough along the Canadian border, reflected from the Carolinas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few bands of isolated showers and storms will crop up as we tick past noon, which means that the second half of our drive will be the most suspect. There will be an isolated shower or thunderstorm as we press south, probably from Winona, Mississippi, through Jackson and then west towards Monroe. It won’t be a washout by any means, but the threat for a remote storm doinking us certainly enough to consider, especially since rain could be heavy enough to slow traffic. Fortunately, Monroe is not a town with a lot of traffic.

Not all drops dodged

The HRRR was inaccurate in northern Louisiana, and what happened in the short term in Monroe. A weak boundary, modeled to develop over southern Arkansas had, as I discussed in the video, actually developed in Louisiana, south of Monroe. This was a primary reason for the city remaining dry on Thursday. Of course, the longer ranger output had some rain working back into Monroe. That was also accurate, with a splash of rain coming in the afternoon and evening. Forecast.io dominated this forecast, owing to a warm forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – High 94, Low 71
Friday – .27 inches of rain/thunderstorms, High 93, Loww 70

Grade: A-C

Monroe, Louisiana

Tomorrow – Isolated showers, High 89, Low 75
Friday – Heavy thunderstorms developing later in the day, High 90, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 71
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; humid High 90, Low 71
Friday – Considerable cloudiness (late storms) High 91, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 73
Friday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 87, Low 73
Friday – Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 89, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 88, Low 73
Friday -Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 90, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until afternoon.High 92, low 71
Friday – Rain until afternoon.High 93, Low 69

So that’s another issuance of a video forecast. I’m surprised the opinion wasn’t as universally stormy, to be honest.

A steam room

I almost wanted to label Monroe a blast furnace, but with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, that didn’t work as well as a metaphor. The temperatures probably didn’t reach 100 because the dew points were so high, but the heat index was wel into triple digits. I can see why someone might not care for living in this environment. Forecasting for it, however, was a piece of cake. Good forecasts all the way around, but Victoria-Weather and Accuweather had the top forecasts.
Actuals: Sunday – High 98, Low 65
Monday – High 98, Low 77

Grade: A-B

Monroe, Louisiana

It’s down south for today’s forecast. Just an FYI, starting tomorrow, there will be a more regular schedule, at least from me, when it comes to forecast times. Generally between 8-10pm every day (save for Friday and Saturday), you will see all the posts showing up, forecasts, road trips, whatever. Ok, here is one last Ryan forecast at 1AM.

At 1253AM, CT, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. There was a well entrenched area of high pressure parked over the lower Mississippi Valley, which is making for some clear skies. There was a midlevel trough to the southeast, producing some high topped clouds over the southern part of the state.
As a weak wave ripples through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday, expect a return to southerly flow across the Louisiana Coast, which will lead to coastal showers and storms. The storms will fail to reach all the way to northern Louisiana, however, and only some soupier dew points are expected. The clear skies will lead to outrageously warm temperatures.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 75
Monday – Partly cloudy, humid, High 98, Low 79

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 99, Low 77
Monday – Mostly Sunny, High 99, Low 78

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and hot High 98, Low 75
Monday – Mostly sunny High 99, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot, High 98, Low 77
Monday – Sunny and hot High 98, Low 78

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 98, Low 77
Monday – Mostly sunny High 98, Low 78

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 99, Low 77
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 99, Low 79

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 98, Low 77
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 97, Low 79

Man, that is warm, and with dew points in the mid 70s, expect an extraordinarily uncomfortable pair of days in northern Louisiana.

Monroe, Louisiana to Youngstown, Ohio

We’re off for a summer time drive again this afternoon, headed from Louisiana to northeastern Ohio. It will take almost exactly two days. The two cities are 1079 miles apart, and as a result our rate of speed will be about 65.6mph, which, given the drive time east of the Mississippi, isn’t half bad. So let’s see the countryside at 524 miles a fay!

DAY ONE (Saturday)
We continue to have the stagnant upper level trough that has made this one of the coldest summers on record in the eastern two thirds of country sitting right over the Great Lakes. The tail of a cold front and the remnants of a surface wave all find themselves over Dixieland. This might sound like a lot of triggers over one area that could lead to a few thunderstorms, but in the end, it will just lead to a lot of blah. Clouds and rain between Monroe and Memphis. If anything, that trough sitting so comfortably over the Great Lakes will suppress any rain or thunder over Tennessee, and the drive from Memphis to Nashville will be dry and unseasonably cool. The stop on day one will be on the west side of Nashville.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
The weather has just been so disturbed over the central Appalachians for the last several days, it’s hard to imagine that it will be completely clear on Sunday for our route from Nashville to Youngstown. I think the drive through Kentucky shouldn’t give us any problems, but by the time we reach Ohio, it could get a bit dreary. Nothing crazy, no major outbreaks and not even a ton of rain, just a passing spritz and a lot of clouds. And so it will be from Cincinnati to Youngstown.

Gorgeous Start to Week

In Southeast Michigan, it was a very nice start to the week, particularly in Monroe. Temperatures peaked in the mid to upper 60s, and remained mostly clear both days, and pretty much all of the forecasts were separated by just a couple of degrees. Overall, the NWS took home the narrow victory.

Monday: High 66, Low 48.
Tuesday: High 68, Low 48.
Forecast Grade: A

Monroe, Michigan to Panama City, Florida

It’s almost exactly a two day trip between Monroe, Michigan and Panama City, Florida, if you ever decide to make the trip between the two cities. That’s some relatively easy planning, isn’t it? Our midweek jaunt covers 965 miles, which means our daily log will be about 483 miles, and our speed will be around 60mph. Let’s see how it will play out.

It will be hard to top our Tuesday. Sunny skies are expected from Monroe south through Ohio, Kentucky and into Tennessee. Temperatures are going to be pleasant, reaching only the 70s and maybe hitting 80. Good for driving with the windows own and enjoying the scenery. The day will end in Millersville, Tennessee, which is north of Nashville.

A tropical disturbance becoming organized over the southeastern Gulf will generate some easterly flow. The fetch will be strong enough, in fact, to produce some rain as far west as Alabama. It won’t be widespread stratiform rain or anything like that, but after Birmingham, we should see chances for rain the rest of the way to Panama city. The heaviest rain will be from Mongtomery to Dothan, and it may even begin to taper off after we pass into Florida.
Panama City

Monroe, Michigan

It’s tough to hear about well known storm chasers Tim Samaras and Carl Young, as well as Tim’s son Paul being killed by this week’s tornado on the west side of Oklahoma City. Condolences go out to their families and fans of their television program, and as always, a reminder of the inherent danger of tornadoes. They can even surprise the greatest experts in the craft

Our forecast today takes us to the shores of Lake Erie. They have seen a bit of rain in Michigan so they might like to see the sun for a little while.

At 1255PM, ET, Monroe was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 71 degrees. A stout westerly flow was bringing about low clouds to most of the Lower Peninsula, including areas just to the west of Monroe. The clouds were barely showing up on satellite, as they weren’t particularly thick, so it seemed unlikely that the layer would ever reach Monre.
Monroe and the rest of Michigan finds itself within the dry slot of the system that has brought so much late week rain to the state. The westerly post-system flow will continue through the next 48 hours or so, but the next wave moving into the Northern Plains will bring about some afternoon southerly flow on Tuesday evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunny early, increasing clouds late, High 69, Low 46

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 70, Low 48
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny High 69, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and beautiful High 67, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunny much of the time and nice High 69, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 66, Low 46
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 66, Low 45
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. High 67, Low 47

Satellite shows most of the clouds pulling away from Monroe, and the cloud deck over western Michigan is almost imperceptable.