Category Archives: Forecast

St. Cloud, Minnesota

What’s this? A second forecast?! That’s right, it’s a 2 for 1 day! You can thank the eclipse for that. This bonus forecast is for St. Cloud, MN! Site of my alma mater, and in 4 years, my niece can say the same after I helped move her in last week. They grow up so fast these days… but in any event, let’s see how the weather will be for the end of the first full week of classes up there.

At 1153pm CDT, the temperature at St. Cloud, MN was 60 degrees under overcast skies. High pressure is found throughout the Upper Midwest currently, so what’s up with these showers found in the area? Turns out a vortmax in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is stirring up things. Most of the heavier showers are staying off to the northwest, but St. Cloud won’t be completely dry as some light activity is expected to move in during these pre-dawn hours. Luckily, most of this activity should clear out by the time students head off to their morning classes and clouds will break up as the day progresses. Dry weather continues into Friday afternoon when another mid-level disturbance shifts out of the Dakotas and into MN, kicking up another round of scattered showers and maybe even an isolated thunderstorm.

Thursday: A few light early morning showers, then becoming partly cloudy by afternoon. High 75, Low 55.
Friday: Increasing clouds, few showers in afternoon. High 70, Low 57.

TWC: Thursday: Partly cloudy, isolated shower possible. High 72, Low 52.
Friday: Isolated thunderstorms. High 66, Low 55.

AW: Thursday: An early morning shower possible, then clouds breaking up and pleasant. High 71, Low 53.
Friday: Variable clouds with a shower. High 65, Low 55.

NWS: Thursday: Isolated showers, then partly sunny. High 71, Low 53.
Friday: Chance of showers. High 67, Low 55.

WB: Thursday: Chance of early morning shower, then partly cloudy. High 69, Low 53.
Friday: Chance of storms. High 65, Low 55.

WN: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with an isolated shower, then partly cloudy. Low 72, Low 55.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 66, Low 55.

FIO: Thursday: Light rain starting overnight continuing into morning. High 74, Low 55.
Friday: Light rain in the morning and evening. High 67, Low 59.

That mid-level disturbance is bringing plenty of rain showers to the area, but staying just off to the north and west of St. Cloud. They’ll probably see a few light showers this morning yet before they clear out for the rest of the day.

Grand Rapids, Michigan

Today let’s take a look at Lower Michigan, affectionately called the Mitten!

At 1153pm EDT, the temperature at Grand Rapids, MI was 57 degrees under fair skies. High pressure is found throughout the Great Lakes region, leading to fairly pleasant conditions over much of the region. High pressure is expected to stick around for a few days, so this cool late summer pattern isn’t going to go anywhere fast. However, there is a mid-level disturbance working through the Upper Midwest tonight as a vortmax is shifting through MN and into WI through the morning hours. Rain showers found over northern MN will shift into WI overnight and could bring a couple of spritzes to the Grand Rapids area sometime late morning to early afternoon on Thursday. Minimal amounts, if any, are expected as it shifts on through and clear out by late Thursday afternoon. After that, pleasant skies are expected into the weekend!

Thursday: Increasing clouds, an isolated midday shower possible. High 69, Low 52.
Friday: Mostly sunny, a bit warmer. High 73, Low 50.

TWC: Thursday: Mostly sunny, an isolated shower possible. High 71, Low 50.
Friday: Sunny. High 74, Low 49.

AW: Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a stray shower in the afternoon. High 71, Low 50.
Friday: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High 74, Low 49.

NWS: Thursday: Chance of sprinkles. High 70, Low 52.
Friday: Sunny. High 73, Low 49.

WB: Thursday: Partly sunny. High 68, Low 50.
Friday: Sunny. High 71, Low 50.

WN: Thursday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 70, Low 54.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 73, Low 48.

FIO: Thursday: Light rain in the morning. High 71, Low 52.
Friday: Partly cloudy until morning. High 73, Low 51.

Lower Michigan is pretty cloud free tonight, with a disturbance working its way into northern WI. This could bring a stray shower into the area tomorrow, but don’t worry too much about it.

Beautiful Weekend, Beautiful Forecasts

The weekend forecast for Bakersfield was pretty easy, hot and dry. Everybody seemed to handle it pretty well, with everybody within 2 degrees of the actual for each forecast period. Everybody except for Darksky. Their forecast was a good 2-4 degrees cooler than everybody else, which didn’t pan out. Yours truly here at VW tied with the NWS for the win, with a minuscule error of just 3 total degrees!

Saturday: High 101, Low 76.
Sunday: High 98, Low 74.
Forecast Grade: A

Weather Wayback…. the slow start to summer

The past few weeks have been unusually cool for all areas east of the Rockies, giving the end of summer an easy transition to autumn. Back in April, spring was late arriving in the Great Lakes as well. Ann Arbor, Michigan saw a system move through the region on the final weekend of April, bringing not only a half an inch of rain with steady showers and isolated thunderstorms, but also high temperatures in the mid 50s both Saturday and Sunday. That’s not a great weekend, but at least April wasn’t technically summer yet, but it was one of those first weekends in which expectations were high, and plans were ruined. Weathernation was the top forecaster in a collection of very similar forecasts.
Actuals: Saturday, April 29th -Rain reported, not measured, High 55, Low 46
Sudnay, April 30th – .58 inches of rain, High 55, Low 39

Grade: C

Canton, Ohio

Apologies for the lack of updates yesterday, I was out (along with about 10 million other Americans) chasing after the total eclipse! I’ll update in a later post about my adventure, but I was able to see the totality in all of its’ brilliance! The 11+ hours of traffic to get home however… yikes. Today’s forecast involves a locale that is also known for their stars, football stars that is. Canton, OH! Home of the NFL Hall of Fame! Let’s see how their midweek forecast looks like.

At 1251am EDT, the temperature in Canton, OH was 67 degrees under partly cloudy skies. A cold front worked through the region earlier today, bringing some showers through during the afternoon and evening. High pressure will slowly work down into the OH River Valley over the next couple of days in its wake, leading to some very pleasant late summer conditions! There is a slight chance of some wayward showers getting kicked up lake-effect style. Nothing much would come from them, just a couple hundreths if anything. Temperatuers will dip down into the low 70s for Thursday as well, hard to complain about those kinds of readings in late August!

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy in afternoon. High 77, Low 60.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower. High 71, Low 56.

TWC: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 77, Low 60.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, an isolated shower. High 71, Low 57.

AW: Wednesday: Pleasant with periods of sun. High 78, Low 60.
Thursday: Partly sunny with a shower. High 72, Low 57.

NWS: Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. Slight chance of showers before midnight. High 76, Low 59.
Thursday: Chance of showers then partly sunny. High 70, Low 56.

WB: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 74, Low 58.
Thursday: Chance of showers. High 69, Low 56.

WN: Wednesday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 77, Low 57.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 72, Low 57.

FIO: Wednesday: Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 72, Low 61.
Thursday: Partly cloudy starting in the morning. High 68, Low 55.

We see some showers and embedded thunderstorms shifting through PA/WV, away from Canton. Most of tomorrow should be fine but keep an eye on the radar for some late night sprinkles.

New England, just like the old England

Manchester, England, much like the rest of the country, has a reputation of fog and drizzle interrupting even the nicest times of year. Manchester, New Hampshire followed suit, mimicking its namesake at the beginning of last week. There was a bit of drizzle on Tuesday, with fog both Tuesday and Wednesday, giving the region an English air. In the afternoon Wednesday, however, the temperature climbed into the 80s, reminding us that this was summer in America, not in the UK. There was a 4 way tie atop the leaderboard, between The Weather Channel, Accuweather, Weatherbug and WeatherNation, and the other three outlets were within 2 degrees of the winners.
Actuals: Tuesday – .06 inches of rain, Hgh 76, Low 64
Wednesday – High 83, Low 62

Grade: C

Bakersfield, California

It’s the weekend! Today we head to the southern portions of CA’s Central Valley and check in on Bakersfield. What kind of conditions will they see leading up to Monday’s eclipse?

At 935pm PDT, the temperature at Bakersfield, CA is 90 degrees under fair skies. A fairly decent ridge of high pressure is found over the Southwest US, not counting some increased monsoonal activity developing over the Four Corners region. None of this activity is going to get anywhere close to Bakerfield however, as the seemingly endless summer pattern of hot and dry looks to continue unabated throughout the weekend. Temperatures in some spots could creep into the triple digits, but I’m banking on the “close but no cigar” mantra, with highs staying in the upper 90s. Should be a pleasant weekend, as long as you don’t mind the heat.

Saturday: Sunny and hot. High 99, Low 76.
Sunday: Continued sunny and hot. High 97, Low 74.

TWC: Saturday: Sunny. High 102, Low 77.
Sunday: Sunny. High 101, Low 76.

AW: Saturday: Brilliant sunshine and hot. High 102, Low 74.
Sunday: Sunny and hot. High 100, Low 74.

NWS: Saturday: Hot. High 101, Low 75.
Sunday: Sunny. High 99, Low 73.

WB: Saturday: Sunny. High 101, Low 74.
Sunday: Sunny. High 99, Low 75.

WN: Saturday: Sunny. High 100, Low 75.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 99, Low 73.

FIO: Saturday: Partly cloudy overnight. High 96, Low 72.
Sunday: Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 94, Low 71.

Here’s a peek at the water vapor image for the Western US. There’s a weak upper-air disturbance pushing through NV but very dry air is found over the southern half of CA, and that plume of dry air pushing over SoCal looks to remain for the foreseeable future.

Warm air returns

A good deal of the month of August has been unseasonably cool for the Midwest and Great Lakes. We visited Cincinnati at just the right time, as a warm front was on the verge of lifting north and returning southern Ohio to a more appropriate pattern. As the warm front lifted north, it was a bit more capable than expected, drawing in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico further south than had been demarcated in the forecast, as Tropical Storm Gert moved away from the subtropical low’s influence. Every outlet thought that rain would avoid the Queen City, and everyone was wrong, leaving it to the temperature forecast. There was a three way tie atop the leaderboard, as Victoria-Weather, Accuweather and all tied for the victory.
Actuals: Monday – Trace of rain, High 81, Low 68
Tuesday – High 87, Low 66

Grade: C-D

Gulfport, Mississippi

Today we take a look at what’s happening along the Gulf Coast in Mississippi. Are there tropical systems out there looking to taint our midweek plains??

At 1149pm CDT, the temperature at Gulfport, MS was 82 degrees under fair skies. There’s a hurricane out in the Atlantic Basin (Gert), but it’s between the Carolinas and Bermuda and will be heading north-northeast over the next couple of days. The Gulf of Mexico looks void of any tropical threats throughout the week, so the only real threat we have is airmass thunderstorms. Overall, broad high pressure is found throughout the Southeast US, but not strong enough to quell the daily cycle of diurnal thunderstorms that pop up each summer afternoon in the region. Odds are only one of the two days we’ll see some storms, but which day that is… well, actually Wednesday looks to be a bit quieter than Tuesday. In any event, keep an eye on the sky both days.

Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms in afternoon. High 90, Low 78.
Wednesday: Chance of an early afternoon storm, clearing in evening. High 91, Low 78.

TWC: Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 87, Low 79.
Wednesday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 89, Low 78.

AW: Tuesday: A couple of thunderstorms. High 89, Low 77.
Wednesday: Some sun with a thunderstorm. High 89, Low 78.

NWS: Tuesday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 90. Low 79.
Wednesday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 90, Low 79.

WB: Tuesday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 86, Low 78.
Wednesday: Chance of thunderstorms .High 87, Low 78.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 90, Low 80.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 90, Low 79.

FIO: Tuesday: Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 87, Low 78.
Wednesday: Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 88, Low 78.

The area has quieted down this evening, with a couple of showers lingering offshore. The radar is expected to light up by midday the next couple of days.

Manchester, New Hampshire

There isn’t much space for cities in New England, but today, we’re headed for Manchester in southern New Hampshire. This would be much more interesting in winter.

At 953PM, ET, Manchester was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 70 degrees. A look at the observations in the area suggests that the clouds in Manchester are keeping temperatures artificially warmer, as clear skies were being observed nearby, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s from Boston to Concord. Tropical Storm Gert lingers off the Carolina coast, with a remnant cold front slicing just south of Long Island into southern New Jersey, and an upper level low spins over central Quebec.
Gert will get wrapped into the dangling boundary, pulling it further to the east, which will in turn allow the upper low to drift to the east. Expect a weak boundary to move through the region tomorrow evening, with an increase in clouds. There could be a spot of rain, but most of the activity will  remain in the mountains north and west of Manchester. Cool high pressure behind this round of shower activity will take hold on Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with a bit of late drizzle, High 81, Low 62
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 80, Low 61
Wednesday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 81, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 82, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 83, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers between 10am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Partly sunny high 84, Low 63
Wednesday – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny,  High 84, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Party sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon. High 80, Low, 63
Wednesday – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. High 81, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 82, Low 63
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the morning and afternoon. High 77, Low 60
Wednesday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. high 77, Low 61

Here is a look at the satellite, which didn’t pull in too tight to the Manchester area, but you can see all the features I described, from Gert, to the cold front to the Quebecois low.