Decatur, Illinois

I feel like the heart of Illinois is a good place to really see what synoptic scale weather patterns can do

AT 854PM, CT, Decatur was reporting a temperature of 36 degrees. Above freezing temperatures after fresh rain and snow have led to low clouds and fog beginning to develop in the region thanks to clear skies and calm winds. After what should be a foggy morning tomorrow, emerging low pressure in the High Plains will drive warm air northward throughout the day tomorrow.
Decatur is far enough south that the emerging low will bring a threat for rain or even an isolated rumble of thunder as the feature slides north towards the Upper Midwest and sends an active cold front into Illinois by sunrise. The system is going to be fast moving and will be through by the early afternoon, leaving a chilly but clear evening by Thursday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 50, Low 32
Thursday – Rain early, at times heavy, High 54, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early. Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 51, Low 29
Thursday – Showers in the morning then continued cloudy and windy in the afternoon. High 59, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and milder High 52, Low 32
Thursday – Breezy and mild in the morning; otherwise, cloudy with showers, mainly early in the day High 60, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread fog, mainly before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 53, Low 33
Thursday – Rain, mainly before noon High 61, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, Widespread fog in the morning, High 49, Low 31
Thursday – Rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon, High 57, Low 41

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 53, Low 33
Thursday – Partly cloudy with light rain, High 61, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 49, Low 28
Thursday – Light rain and windy in the morning. High 61, Low 41

It’s going to be a pretty virulent system that moves through the country this week, but if there is any good news, it’s that it is moving through now, rather than later in the season, when more snow would fall, or in the spring, when severe storms are likely. Here, we can just see fog developing.

Winchester, Virginia

Today we head to Winchester, VA and see how they’re going to start the new workweek.

At 1115pm EST, the temperature at Winchester, VA was 36 degrees under overcast skies. A large area of low pressure is sitting offshore off the Carolinas and looks to shift northeastward over the next 24 hours, bringing coastal rains to New England and some light snow further inland. A weak area of low pressure is shifting through the OH Valley currently and while its expected to mainly dissipate as it shifts into the Mid-Atlantic. A mid-level disturbance, however, could kick up some afternoon/evening rain showers in the area tomorrow before shifting out to sea itself. While another trough looks to swing through the region on Tuesday, it won’t be very strong and no precip is anticipated.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, an isolated evening shower possible. High 44, Low 33.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. High 49, Low 32.

TWC: Monday: Cloudy. High 45, Low 33.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. High 52, Low 31.

AW: Monday: Mostly cloudy, isolated shower possible. High 45, Low 33.
Tuesday: Times of clouds and sun. High 50, Low 33.

NWS: Monday: Cloudy then slight chance of afternoon/evening showers. High 46, Low 34.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 51, Low 34.

WB: Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance of evening rain showers. High 44, Low 34.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 50, Low 32.

WN: Monday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. High 46, Low 34.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 51, Low 34.

FIO: Monday: Overcast throughout the day, late shower possible. High 47, Low 33.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 51, Low 29.

Not much going on in Virginia tonight, but some light shower activity over the OH Valley will be shifting through the region over the next day or so.

Bowling Green, Kentucky

There are two Bowling Greens that I can think of. One is in Ohio, and the other is in southern Kentucky. Apparently, lawn bowling is a big deal in the Ohio Valley.

At 953AM, CT, Bowling Green was reporting a temperature of 34 degrees with clear skies. Things were unseasonably cold across most of the eastern United States under a stout dome of high pressure that has been in place for a couple of days now, but will offer a brief moment of respite in the next couple of days.
A bit of a thermal ridge is going to develop across the Ohio Valley, though the region is more broadly underneath an upper level trough, reactive to any perturbations along it’s path. One such wave will move southeast out of Alberta into the northern High Plains as the weekend continues. By early next week, it will mean precipitation for the Bowling Green area, but in the interim, simply expect a warmer return flow.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 54, Low 23
Sunday – A few clouds, even warmer, High 64, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 53, Low 22
Sunday – Sunny, High 64, Low 36

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, High 52, Low 20
Sunday – Plenty of Sunshine, High 63, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 52, Low 23
Sunday – Sunny high 60, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny high 52, Low 23
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 63, low 37

WN: Tomorrow -Sunny, High 52, Low 23
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 55, Low 23
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. high 64, Low 34

The weather is looking pretty nice for the weekend. It will be a good time to get out and take care of the leaves in the yard, I would say. The weather is going to take a turn again early next week. For the time being, take a look at the satellite. The white in Michigan is actually fresh snow.

Cheyenne, Wyoming

Strange that this is the furthest east we’ve been in weeks, isn’t it?

At 1053AM, MT, Cheyenne was reporting a temperature of 50 degrees with sunny skies and a brisk northwest wind of about 25mph in gusts. The off-mountain winds are certainly helping to bolster the warm up this afternoon. There was a weak ridge building in the front range as well, but most of the warm up at this time is mechanical in nature.
The upper level pattern is quite static, and a glance at the jet pattern looks to remain unchanged through the beginning of the work week. This means a tight thermal gradient just to the northeast of Cheyenne, which will result and a continuing brisk wind in the region. If the wind continues to be more westerly than northerly, Cheyenne will also be able to sustain some warmer temperatures.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 40, Low 26
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy but warmer, High 52, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 43, Low 27
Tuesday – Sunny skies High 55, Low 29

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 43, Low 26
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and milder High 55, Low 28

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of flurries before 11am, then a chance of sprinkles. Partly sunny High 40, Low 22
Tuesday – Sunny, High 54, Low 23

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, Colder, High 42, Low 28
Tuesday – Sunny, not as cool, High 55, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 40, Low 23
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 53, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 43, Low 26
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 53, Low 29

A look at the satellite shows some striations in the clouds north of Cheyenne, which are caused by the strength of the jet through those clouds.

San Luis Obispo, California

Today we take a trip to the Southwest, where the big story the last few days have been unrelenting Santa Ana winds and massive brush fires kicking up from Sacramento to Los Angeles. Will San Luis Obispo be spared from nature’s fury as we head into the weekend?

At 950pm PDT, the temperature at San Luis Obispo, CA was 46 degrees under fair skies. High pressure continues to settle in from the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains, keeping pretty much the entire Western US dry as a bone. Luckily, the Santa Ana’s will be weakening tomorrow after an intense event the last 3 days, which caused the Los Angeles NWS office to issue an Extreme Red Flag Warning, something that’s not in their official lexicon but they needed to convey the danger that 60-80mph winds an 1-5% humidity can cause. While a number of fires popped up, SLB avoided the worst of it, save for some air quality issues. Friday is expected to see some breezy conditions in the morning but settle down throughout the afternoon hours. After that, it looks to be a fairly pleasant weekend with generally subdued winds.

Friday: Sunny. High 81, Low 41.
Saturday: Sunny. High 79, Low 40.

TWC: Friday: Sunny. High 80, Low 43.
Saturday: Sunny. High 80, Low 41.

AW: Friday: Sunny and pleasant. High 80, Low 40.
Saturday: Sunny and pleasant. High 80, Low 38.

NWS: Friday: Sunny and breezy. High 80, Low 41.
Saturday: Sunny. High 78, Low 42.

WB: Friday: Sunny. High 79, Low 42.
Saturday: Sunny. High 80, Low 42.

WN: Friday: Sunny. High 80, Low 41.
Saturday: Sunny. High 78, Low 42.

FIO: Friday: Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 47.
Saturday: Clear throughout the day. High 79, Low 50.

The Desert Southwest is pretty much clear as clear can be. The nearest significant cloud system is in the Northern Plains.

Santa Barbara, California

Unlike our last trip to the Golden State, Santa Barbara is a little bit closer to the fires in Southern California, particularly the recently ignited Easy Fire, burning between Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley. What are we looking at for the next couple of days? Respite?

At 753AM, ET, Santa Barbara was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 39 degrees. Shielded by the Coastal Range, and seeing as it is fairly early in the morning, Santa Barbara was shielded from any blustery winds from the interior of the state.
In the next couple of days, a coastal trough is forecast to develop and should finally blunt the winds from the east. A little bit of latent moisture may even turn into a Marine Layer, sneaking up the coast by Saturday morning, making for a cool damp beginning to the weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with some smoky haze, High 74, Low 40
Saturday – Early fog, then clearing and hazy High 73, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 77, Low 46
Saturday – Sunny. High 76, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Delightful with plenty of sunshine High 75, Low 40
Saturday – Delightful with plenty of sunshine High 74, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 80, Low 44
Saturday – Sunny High 77, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 73, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny High 73, Lw 46

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny HIgh 80, Low 44
Saturday – Sunny High 77, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 73, Low 58
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 74, Low 61

There are some wild differences on the low temperature forecasts in Santa Barbara. Are these even all the same city? A look at the map shows that the fire danger is a little removed from Santa Barbara, but it should still be monitored.

Madera, California

The big news story out of California is once again the wildfire season, aided heavily by a robust Santa Ana wind regime. Madera lies in the Central Valley, set away from the flaming hillsides in Wine Country and northwest of Los Angeles, and are under no threat from the flames, though those brisk Santa Anas will surely cause some concerns, won’t they?

At 853 AM, PT, Madera was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with clear skies and calm winds. Other places further south in the Valley were reporting some light haze as the brisk winds on the hills and mountains of the Golden State was not settling into the Valley.
The atmosphere is finally going to start doing some favors for the beleaguered region, as a strong trough is getting ready to dig into the Great Basin, breaking up the Santa Ana high, and allowing winds to subside. There will continue to be some breeze, though it will shift to become more north-northwesterly as a cold front tries to sneak into the area. With wind off the ocean and picking up the Kincade Fire of northern California, smoke and fog will become more likely in the Madera area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Expect some cooler temperatures, though depending on the moisture transported into the region, those could be blunted by a lack of radiational cooling.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with some haze possible, High 70, low 37
Wednesday – A bit cloudy with haze and morning fog more likely, High 68, Low 35

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 37
Wednesday – Mostly Sunny, High 68, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, High 71, low 36
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine, High 69, Low 32

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 39
Wednesday – sunny, High 68, Low 37

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Patchy frost in the morning, High 69, Low 49
Wednesday – Sunny, patchy frost in the morning, High 67, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, low 39
Wednesday – Sunny, high 68, Low 37

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 72, low 37
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 70, Low 34

Not often that Victoria-Weather finds itself smack dab in the middle of things. The biggest surprise to me was that the GFS has a warming trend for Wednesday, and it was wholly rejected by all outlets. That doesn’t happen often. Here is the satellite image for central California. If you look closely, you can see the plume from the Kincade Fire north of San Francisco Bay.

Olympia, Washington

Today we’re going to visit the Pacific Northwest, and visit the capital of Washington! Let’s see how Olympia will fare as we head into midweek.

At 654pm, the temperature at Olympia, WA is 51 degrees under fair skies. An area of low pressure is intensifying over eastern Montana, and trailing a front back through ID into OR. This feature will be pushing out into the Plains throughout the day Wednesday, bringing some showers to the Central Plains. Behind this feature, an area of high pressure is settling in over the Pacific Northwest and looks to make it its home over the next couple of days. Some areas of dense fog are possible in the area tomorrow morning before burning off by midday. Some patchy fog is possible Thursday morning too, but will be less widespread. Both days will be dry, with temps lifting a smidge for Thursday.

Wednesday: Some morning dense fog, then becomes sunny. High 58, Low 41.
Thursday: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer. High 61, Low 37.

TWC: Wednesday: AM fog, PM sun. High 59, Low 43.
Thursday: Morning fog again, then afternoon sun. High 62, Low 41.

AW: Wednesday: Times of clouds and sun. High 58, Low 41.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High 62, Low 38.

NWS: Wednesday: Patchy fog then sunny. High 57, Low 42.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 62, Low 41.

WB: Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 56, Low 46.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 60, Low 42.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 57, Low 42.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. high 62, Low 41.

FIO: Wednesday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 58, Low 40.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy throughout the morning, clearing late. High 61, Low 37.

A bunch of high clouds are streaming over the area as a system gets revved up in the Northern High Plains. High pressure takes over the region keeping conditions fairly pleasant.

Toledo, Ohio

Fall colors are in full bloom across the Great Lakes. Are there any leaf peepers headed to northwest Ohio?

At 1152AM, ET, Toledo was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 51 degrees. Toledo was on the back side of a strong system moving through New England, which resulted in a brisk northerly flow across the region. there was a tendril of clearer skies right over Toledo, but the back end of the clouds is over Wisconsin and Illinois.
After some clear air gets to Toledo, the primary influencer will be a tropical disturbance developing now in the Gulf of Mexico, headed northeast across north Florida towards the Carolinas, which will sap moisture from a cold front advancing through the Upper Midwest. Ahead of the front, and on the back of the tropical feature, warmer air will filter into Toledo, with clouds likely across Lake Erie.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, much less wind, High 56, low 35
Saturday – Partly cloudy and warmer, High 64, Low 36

TWC: Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. high 56, low 36
Saturday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds., High 65, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine High 57, low 36
Saturday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 66, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 55, Low 38
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of frost in the morning. Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 41
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 41

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 38
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 42

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 57, Low 36
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, low 38

A look at the satellite shows that cloud cover at the western flank of the big storm on the east coast.

Boston, Massachusetts

Happy weekend, everyone! We’re going to stop in Beantown to see how life is now that we’ve finished with a nasty early season storm.

At 1254AM, ET, Boston was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 55 degrees. Some fog and clouds were settling in in the Berkshires and across Providence and South Boston, however it will be a race between clouds over the Cape and that fog, as temperatures should level off overnight if cloud cover encroaches. There is clear air over southern New England and in the Mid Atlantic, so if Boston is skirted by the clouds to the south, a foggy Sunday morning seems likely.
The dominant feature in the eastern US is a deep area of low pressure in Ontario, with an occluded front through New England and a cold front stretching to the Carolinas. Independent circulation at the occlusion will shift off shore through tomorrow morning, and will deepen into a mostly independent feature, strengthened via good jet support. The amplification looks to be underestimated by the models at this point, but is also going to remain well east of Boston, bringing perhaps some low clouds and a little bit of wind on Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66. Low 53
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 68, Low 52
Monday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 67, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and breaks of sun High 68, Low 54
Monday – Clouds and breaks of sun, High 67, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, HIgh 66, Low 49
Monday – A chance of showers between 9am and noon. Partly sunny HIgh 66, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 50
Monday – Partly sunny with a 30% chance of showers, High 64, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, HIgh 66, Low 50
Monday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 66, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 65, Low 51
Monday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 63, Low 49

The NWS and friends are going for the shower potential, but it isn’t a popular forecast elsewhere. 60s seem pretty tolerable for October. Here is the satellite, with clear skies ready to move north.