Greensboro, North Carolina

The Carolinas were clipped by Dorian, with coastal sections of the states from Charleston to the Outer Banks sustaining damage, primarly due to storm surge and some isolated tornadoes, like the one in North Myrtle Beach. Greensboro was largely unaffected, and now can look instead to the west for their upcoming weather.

At 1152AM, ET, Greensboro was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with fair skies. There was a little bit of cloud cover across the region, but not so much that the satellite was very busy. A stalled boundary suspended between two areas of low pressure in the Great Lakes was inducing a generally southerly flow, which will likely lead to low clouds and fog when temperatures start to wane.
The western low will start to occlude, while the cold front attached to the boundary to the east will begin to sink further south, decoupling from the western low. There won’t be much energy with the tail of this front as it passes into North Carolina, but after sunset, destabilization aloft might lead to a few showers and storms on Friday evening.
Tomorrow – Sunny and humid, High 92, Low 73
Friday – Mostly cloudy with increasing chances of rain. Cooler, High 83, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. high 95, Low 72
Friday – Scattered thunderstorms High 81, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, hot, High 94, Low 71
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sun, a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later; warm High 83, low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny,  High 94, Low 71
Friday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Increasing clouds, High 86, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 93, Low 73
Friday – Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 83, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 94, low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 86, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 93, Low 70
Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, low 70

Model guidance suggests that temperatures will actually be in the high 70s on Friday, but note how nobody is on board with that. This is because guidance often fails to cope with terrain’s influence on temperature. That heavy, cold air will struggle to clear Appalachia, and with a blanket of mid level clouds, radiative cooling will be unlikely. Here is the satellite, with no clouds to speak of this morning.

Fresno, California

All eyes remain on Dorian as he batters the northern Bahamas, and we can openly speculate on his further track. It appears as though his course will mean a greater threat for the Carolinas than Florida. Last year, California bore the brunt of weather headlines for much of the year, thanks to drought and fires. This year, California is mercifully off the radar. Let’s check back in.

At 953PM, PT, Fresno was reporting fair skies and a temperature of 87 degrees. While not humid, the dew point was certainly a bit warmer than normal for central California. Despite that, the Golden State was clear, though the monsoon was active with heavy storms over Arizona.
Monsoonal activity will diminish tomorrow, though some high peak showers and storms will be possible, but settled into the valley, a little bit of morning haze will burn off quickly, with hot sunny skies in the afternoons.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 102, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunny and hot High 102, Low 74

TWC – Mostly sunny skies. High 103, Low 73
Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 102, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; hot High 103, Low 73
Tuesday – Mostly sunny; hot High 102, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 100, Low 73
Tuesday – Sunny and hot, High 100, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 74
Tuesday – Sunny, High 101, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 100, Low 73
Tuesday – Sunny, High 100, Low 73

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 103, Low 71
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 103, Low 71

The forecast is quite warm, but it’s interesting that the Weather Service is the coolest outlook. That’s not how it usually goes. Chec out this crystal clear satellite.

Peoria, Illinois

As we head into midweek and draw ever closer to the end of Meteorological Summer, let’s head to central IL and see what’s in store for Peoria!

At 1154pm CDT, the temperature at Peoria, IL was 64 degrees under fair skies. A large dome of high pressure is found over the region, making for very pleasant conditions as we head into midweek. This area of low pressure is going to shift off to the south and east during the day, however, as a cold front pushes through the Upper Midwest. While the main impacts of the front look to be off to the north and east, the tail end of the front looks to move through during the evening hours, which could bring some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm to the area. No washouts are expected from it, but don’t be surprised if you have to dodge a dinnertime shower.

Wednesday: Sunny and pleasant. High 79, Low 57.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, isolated evening shower. High 86, Low 60.

TWC: Wednesday: Sunny. High 80, Low 58.
Thursday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 88, Low 56.

AW: Wednesday: Mostly sunny; pleasant. High 78, Low 56.
Thursday: Sunshine; pleasant. High 84, Low 56.

NWS: Wednesday: Sunny. High 77, Low 56.
Thursday: Sunny. High 85, Low 56.

WB: Wednesday: Sunny. High 78, Low 57.
Thursday: Sunny. High 84, Low 57.

WN: Wednesday: Sunny. High 77, Low 56.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 85, Low 56.

FIO: Wednesday: Clear throughout the day. High 77, Low 54.
Thursday: Possible light rain in the evening. High 84, Low 54.

We see the swirl of clouds associated with an area of low pressure over northern MN, but central IL is pretty quiet tonight. That seems to be the story for the next couple days as well.

Monroe, Louisiana

Today’s forecast brings us to northern Louisiana. The weather here tends to be less ‘coastal’ and seems to be more at the mercy of the factors that drive the weather elsewhere in the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley.

At 818AM. CT, Monroe was reporting light rain with a temperature of 77 degrees. A large area of showers and thunderstorms lingered over northeast Texas, and extended a narrow tendril of rain through northern Louisiana. This outflow boundary suggested that the overnight convection was dissipating for the time being, but it seemed unlikely that the storm machine would be out of commission very long.
A deep area of low pressure was spinning in western Ontario, draping a long, winterlike cold front through the Plains and into the Red River Valley. The length and orientation of the boundary seemed to indicate that the feature wouldn’t be moving with any urgency. The scattered showers and thunderstorms will be an ongoing threat today into tonight. the front will linger over central Louisiana through the day tomorrow, which might mean some more clouds and spots of rain. The low will shift to the northeast through the period, and this will allow the front to diminish. high pressure will take over for Thursday, and it may be a tick cooler than it’s been lately over the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with isolated showers, High 86, Low 74
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 89, low 74
Thursday – Sunny skies. High 90, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun, a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 87, Low 74
Thursday – Partly sunny High 91, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 90, Low 74
Thursday -Sunny, High 92, low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 88, Low 74
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 89, low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, high 90, low 74
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 69

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain tonight and tomorrow morning. High 86, Low 75
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 89, Low 70

The radar in Jackson is out, so we will take a look at the big picture. That bowl shaped band of showers moving through the northern parishes of Louisiana is caused by storms to the north beginning to collapse.

Beaumont, Texas

As we head into the weekend, let’s take a trip to the Gulf Coast and see how the weather is shaping up for Beaumont, TX. Will it be sunny beach weather or will be be scampering for cover?

At 853pm CDT, the temperature at Beaumont, TX was 83 degrees under partly cloudy skies. A frontal boundary looks to sag southward into portions of the Deep South over the next couple of days, but won’t make it anywhere near the Gulf Coast. A typical summertime pattern looks to be in place, with plenty of heat and low-level moisture fueling afternoon thunderstorms in the area. Friday looks to have the better chance of the 2 days in seeing thunderstorms, but Saturday will certainly see it’s share of activity in the vicinity. It doesn’t look like the days will be a washout, but if you’re going out and about, make sure you don’t leave the car windows open.

Friday: Cloudy, scattered storms. High 88, Low 77.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, continued storm activity. High 88, Low 76.

TWC: Friday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 86, Low 75.
Saturday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 87, Low 75.

AW: Friday: Showers and a heavier tstm. High 84, Low 76.
Saturday: A shower or heavy tstm. High 88, Low 75.

NWS: Friday: Thunderstorms expected. High 87, Low 76.
Saturday: Thunderstorms likely. High 89, Low 75.

WB: Friday: Thunderstorms. High 83, Low 77.
Saturday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 85, Low 76.

WN: Friday: Mostly cloudy with light showers. High 87, Low 76.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. High 89, Low 75.

FIO: Friday: Rain starting in morning, continues into evening. High 85, Low 78.
Saturday: Possible light rain starting in morning. High 87, Low 77.

Scattered shower and thunderstorms have shifted out over the Gulf of Mexico tonight. However, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours the next couple of days.

Utica, New York

Today we’re heading to Central NY and taking a closer look at Utica, NY to start the workweek.

At 1153pm EDT, the temperature at Utica, NY (officially nearby Griffiss AFB) was 68 degrees with a few clouds. The tail end of a cold front is shifting its way through the Northeast, and with it showers and thunderstorms are moving through the Great Lakes. While thunderstorm activity should be winding down by the time activity moves through, there could still be a cell or two that affects the region. Otherwise, general rain showers are anticipated before conditions clear out for the afternoon. High pressure shifts in for Tuesday and brings with it sunnier skies and pleasant conditions!

Monday: Morning rain/possible storm, clearing late. High 83, Low 65.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 81, Low 57.

TWC: Monday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 83, Low 67.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 59.

AW: Monday: A shower or tstorm in spots. High 84, Low 68.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny; less humid. High 83, Low 62.

NWS: Monday: Showers then slight chance of storms. High 85, Low 66.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny then slight chance of showers. High 83, Low 61.

WB: Monday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 81, Low 69.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 81, Low 59.

WN: Monday: Partly cloudy with light showers. High 86, Low 67.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 85, Low 63.

FIO: Monday: Morning rain then partly cloudy. High 83, Low 67.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. high 85, Low 60.

The Utica area is quiet currently, but storms off to the west will be approaching through the morning hours.

San Antonio, Texas

Let’s take a look at the southern part of Texas, where it’s going to be extra hot and extra sticky.

At 751PM, San Antonio was reporting a temperature of 94 with a dew point of 70. Clear skies covered eastern and downstate Texas, though the dry line was active on satellite in the western part of the state. Excessive heat advisories continue through the southern Plains, as high pressure has settled into the area.
The anticyclonic flow is going to dissipate over the next 48 hours, with a return flow setting up along the Sabine River but not any further to the west. San Antonio looks to remain dry if uncomfortably warm to begin the workweek.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 78
Tuesday – Still hot, High 99, Low 79

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies High 99, Low 78
Tuesday – A few clouds from time to time. Continued very hot. High 99, Low 78

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; very warm High 100, Low 79
Tuesday – Mostly sunny; very warm High 101, Low 78

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot, High 100, Low 79
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and hot, High 100, Low 78

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 98, Low 79
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. High 97, Low 78

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 100, Low 79
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 100, Low 78

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 98, Low 79
Tuesday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 99, Low 78

Here is the satellite, with some puffs developing in west Texas.

Birmingham, Alabama

As we look forward to the weekend, let’s head to the Deep South and see how the historic city of Birmingham will fare!

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at Birmingham, AL was 80 degrees under fair skies. It’s been nothing short of ridiculously hot over the Southeast this past week as I mentioned a few days ago, and it doesn’t look like it’s gonna go anywhere soon. A strong ridge of high pressure is continuing to sit over the Deep South and will park itself there for another couple of days yet. It will break down a bit on Sunday and a chance of thunderstorms will re-enter the forecast. But until then, it’ll be dry but scorching hot!

Friday: Sunny and hot. High 95, Low 71.
Saturday: Sunny and even hotter. High 96, Low 69.

TWC: Friday: Sunny. High 96, Low 70.
Saturday: Sunny. High 98, Low 70.

AW: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 96, Low 70.
Saturday: Mostly sunny; hot. High 98, Low 68.

NWS: Friday: Sunny. High 98, Low 70.
Saturday: Hot. High 100, Low 71.

WB: Friday: Sunny. High 95, Low 71.
Saturday: Sunny. High 97, Low 70.

WN: Friday: Sunny. High 98, Low 70.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 100, Low 71.

FIO: Friday: Clear throughout the day. High 95, Low 70.
Saturday: Clear throughout the day. High 97, Low 69.

The Deep South is extremely quiet tonight, and looks to remain that way as we head into the weekend. Just don’t look at that cluster of severe thunderstorms in MO/NE. Nothing to see here folks!

Morgantown, West Virginia

As we head into the latter part of the workweek, lets head off to Appalachia and see what Morgantown is up to the next couple of days!

At 1153pm EDT, the temperature at Morgantown, WV was 70 degrees under fair skies. A weak area of low pressure is traversing the OH Valley region and looks to be the instigator of some afternoon thunderstorm activity. Nothing particularly severe is anticipated, just some good ol’ fashioned summertime thunderstorms. Activity should dwindle down late evening as the system pushes off to the east. Friday looks to be on the dry side with perhaps some isolated shower activity staying up in the mountains to the east.

Thursday: Increasing clouds in afternoon, scattered thunderstorms possible. High 84, Low 64.
Friday: Decreasing clouds in afternoon. High 84, Low 66.

TWC: Thursday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 85, Low 64.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High 84, Low 64.

AW: Thursday: A strong afternoon thunderstorm. High 85, Low 66.
Friday: Periods of sun. High 86, Low 67.

NWS: Thursday: Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 86, Low 65.
Friday: Isolated early morning shower, otherwise mostly sunny. High 87, Low 65.

WB: Thursday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 83, Low 64.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High 84, Low 65.

WN: Thursday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 86, Low 65.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High 87, Low 65.

FIO: Thursday: Partly cloudy, few showers. High 86, Low 62.
Friday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 66.

Quiet conditions are found around Morgantown this evening, with some shower activity found over southern OH. We can expected some more activity tomorrow but then taper down for the weekend.

Rochester, Minnesota

We are going to sneak close to home tonight, going down to Rochester, the home of the Mayo Clinic.

At 1254AM, CT, Rochester was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with fair skies. Low pressure moving through northern Manitoba is inducing a lot of low level moisture northward, and dewpoints across the region were high. Fog is likely to settle in in low lying areas overnight, particularly given the clear skies.
Between the low in Manitoba and the remnants of a system in northern Quebec, there has been a rise in instability in the Upper Midwest, with scattered showers through Wisconsin on Saturday. The Manitoban low will bring some drier air into northern Minnesota on Sunday, and continue through the southern part of the state on Monday. As a result, shower and storm activity will become more voluminous, and depending on the available energy, there is a chance for some severe weather in the Rochester area on Monday.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 85, Low 64
Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 85, Low 65
Monday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 81, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine; humid High 84, Low 65
Monday – A strong afternoon thunderstorm; storms can bring flooding downpours, large hail and damaging winds High 82, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 85, Low 63
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 85, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, patchy fog in the morning, High 84, Low 65
Monday – Numerous showers and thunderstorms, high 82, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 85, Low 63
Monday – Partly cloudy with numerous thunderstorms, High 85, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 85, Low 65
Monday -Rain in the afternoon and evening. High 83, Low 69

The timing everyone has for precipitation is all different. Several outlets have rain starting shortly after midnight on Monday, while others don’t have it until the evening. Meanwhile, we have a chance on Sunday. Here is a loop of the day’s satellite imagery, showing the thunderstorms moving through Wisconsin, and fog developing up by Duluth.