Memphis, Tennessee
Posted by Ryan
This time a week ago, I was supposed to be verifying Anthony's forecast in Flagstaff. Alas, it is gone forever. Instead, we will get back on track with a forecast in Memphis.
At 1153AM, ET, Memphis was reporting a temperature of 57 with cloudy skies. A large upper low was winding itself into occlusion over the central Plains, and had pushed it's initial round of rain to the east of town. A healthy dry slot head established itself over Arkansas and promised to bring Memphis a chance at some clearing skies this afternoon.
The upper low has become dissociated with the primary jet over the Gulf of Mexico, which will mean the system will languish and spin itself out rather than advance. Cloudy skies will remain over the center of the country until a stronger system can move through. There is a broader trough entering from the west and will gradually strengthen over the next 48 hours. The secondary low will take almost the same path as the original upper system, but will have upper support and will form a classic frontal structure. Expect a warm front to set up just south of Memphis tomorrow before gradually lifting north. This system will lead to rain for almost all of the eastern half of the country, but Memphis may be on the fringe of a slowly progressing secondary cold front and the dry slot for much of the day on Thursday.
Tomorrow - Rain possible, with the heaviest southeast of town, High 66, Low 57
Thursday - Chance of rain through the day, diminishing towards evening, High 70, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow - Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing (evening t-storms). High 70, Low 58
Thursday - Slight chance of a thunderstorm High 74, Low 57
AW: Tomorrow - Clouds and breaks of sun; warmer with a shower or thunderstorm around High 76, Low 59
Thursday - Clouds yielding to sun (AM Showers) High 72, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow - A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 59
Thursday - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 74, Low 60
WB: Tomorrow - A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 75, Low 59
Thursday -
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming partly sunny. High 74, Low 60
This forecast is a mess. With some much whirling energy, clouds and rain, the temperatures will certainly bust at some point. High? Low? I don't now. Always what you want to hear from a meteorologist, right? Radar shows the initial round of rain pushing out of town.
Bay City, Michigan
Posted by Ryan
All right, here we go! Back into the science of meteorology! Again, I want to remind you all that we have a new feed, so update any account. Let's get back to real live weather forecasting!
At 1153, Bay City was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 44 degrees. There was a rather dormant pressure pattern over the region, at least at the surface. The pattern aloft was a chaotic mess, with Arctic troughs swinging through Canada, and a subtropical jet plowing through the southeast. Riding the subtropical jet was a sinusoidal trough-ridge pattern that was both canceling any development over the Great Lakes and enhancing development over New Mexico.
The wave pattern will devolve through the coming 24 hour, leading to the upper trough over New Mexico to drift aimlessly to the north towards the Northern Plains. Eventually, it will mean light rain showers for the Bay City area, likely not until after noon or evening on Wednesday. A decided lack of energy will mean that any rain will be light and scattered.
Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, High 53, low 30
Wednesday - Increasing clouds, with late rain or drizzle, High 48, Low 35
TWC: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy skies. High 52, Low 30
Wednesday - Few showers. High 49, Low 35
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny High 52, Low 26
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy with a little rain; breezy and colder High 45, Low 30
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 28
Wednesday - A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy High 45, Low 34
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny High 53, Low 28
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain. High 46, low 34
The Weather Service and Weather Bug really have the rain getting in there early. Will that bear out? We shall see. Satellite shows a quiet Great Lakes.
