Brunswick, Georgia

We have spent a lot of time in the western United States lately, so I find it refreshing to return to the east coast. What kind of weather will we see in an entirely different time one than I’ve become accustomed to?

At 155PM, ET, Brunswick was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with clear skies. Strong winds aloft have produced inland clouds, but they were scoured along the coast, where things are a few degrees cooler. The jet, just to the north of the Brunswick area is helping to facilitate high pressure across the region.
The strong jet will merge with a more northerly jet streak, which will set up an upper level convergence point, where showers and isolated embedded rumbles of thunder can develop. That activity will be to the west if Brunswick through most of the period, however increasing clouds will be likely on Thursday, with rain sneaking into the picture by early Friday morning.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 41
Thursday – Increasing clouds, High 66, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Plentiful Sunshine, High 66, Low 41
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 67, Low 42
Thursday – Pleasant with intervals of clouds and sun (PM Showers) High 67, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 65, Low 43
Thursday – Partly sunny, High 64, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 67, Low 43
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 64, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 43
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 67, Low 42
Thursday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 68, Low 42

The website I have used for model guidance has been taken down. This was a long forecast to write, but not terribly difficult! Here is satellite imagery showing off some clouds resulting from the local jet streak.

Billings, Montana

Let’s forecast again! We haven’t done that for a while, so let’s head for the High Plains and do that!

At 953PM, MT, Billings was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 32 degrees. The northern Rockies were at the eastern crest of an extremely eastward tilted ridge. Mid level clouds were present in the turbid flow aloft, but dry weather was seen at the surface throughout Montana.
The ridge will nose in, almost along a west to east axis, cutting a trough over the southwestern US. The northern portion of the trough ridge will become it’s own jet streak, aiding an Alberta Clipper late in the forecast period. While this may make things a bit breezier, Billings will be well south of the feature, and will be in the process of getting warmer thanks to the upper ridge, and flow off the Rockies.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High, 40, Low 25
Wednesday – Breezy early, partly cloudy, High 48, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. Becoming windy late. High 41, Low 24
Wednesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 48, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; breezy in the afternoon High 42, Low 25
Wednesday – Strong winds gradually subsiding; periods of clouds and sunshine High 47, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 44, Low 24
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 31

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 41, Low 25
Wednesday- Decreasing clouds, windy, High 46, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 44, Low 24
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 31

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 44, Low 27
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 47, Low 31

A look at the national satellite shows the sweeping high clouds over the southern US, which is the jet stream forming the base of a severely tilted trough. It’s keeping Billings out of trouble, though!

Fresno, California

All right everyone, it’s time to get in our first 2021 forecast, which will take us to the state of the last forecast of 2020 – California. Let’s go!

At 453PM, PT, Fresno was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A large Gulf of Alaska storm system is looming off the Pacific Coast, ready to move inland, and prefrontal southerly flow ahead of the system has already arrived, bringing additional moisture and the overcast presently in the area. The primary thrust of this system will arrive on in the late morning tomorrow.
The system will swiftly move through northern California, and be out of town shortly after nightfall on Monday. Most of the precipitation will be found north of Fresno, and snow will fall in the mountainous terrain due north of town. A bubble of high pressure will trail this ridge, making for a decent enough Tuesday, but with the spectre of more inclement weather on the horizon.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a few shots of rain, High 59, Low 45
Tuesday – Clear and calmer, High 58, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun in the morning followed by cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 63, Low 44
Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 59, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds High 58, Low 43
Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 58, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. Increasing clouds, High 58, Low 41
Tuesday – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 56, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers in the afternoon, High 61, Low 47
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny. Areas of fog in the morning, High 58, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 59, Low 44
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 56, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 61, Low 43
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 63, Low 41

Here is a look at a particularly busy West Coast satellite. There are a lot of clouds coming to the California coast tomorrow, but it’s moving fast, given the size of the system.

Bakersfield, California

I hope everyone had a happy Holiday. If you were among the millions who were in the midst of winter weather during the Christmas Season, then I hope this forecast for southern California can fill you with warmer thoughts.

At 1054AM, PT, Bakersfield was reporting light rain and a temperature of 54 degrees. A narrow band of showers lay across the southern Valley, with more industrious precipitation in the higher terrain of the Sierras and Tehachapi Mountains. This was a more forceful preview of a storm coming later today and early in the workweek.
A deep trough digging into the Pacific Coast is a tailing lobe over a broader jet trough covering the better part of the northern half of the country. The precipitation follows the course of the exiting part of the jet streak from the lobe, but a well defined area of surface low pressure looms off the California coast. Rain and mountain snow will really intensify overnight tonight, with the feature fully onshore shortly after midnight. Rain is likely in Bakersfield, but significant snow in the mountains ringing Bakersfield are all under Winter Storm advisories. The good news is that the storm will move quickly, and be chased out by dry California air by the end of the day. Tuesday looks to be atypically cool, but dry.
Tomorrow – Rain likely, otherwise mostly cloudy, High 56, Low 46
Tuesday – Early AM drizzle, then sunny and cool, High 52, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon (early rain) High 57, Low 46
Tuesday – Considerable clouds early. Some decrease in clouds later in the day. High 55, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a shower in spots HHigh 56, Low 45
Tuesday – Periods of clouds and sunshine High 54, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely, mainly between 8am and 9am. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 43
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 51, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain, High 56, Low 44
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny, High 53, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain likely, High 54, Low 43
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 51, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 57, Low 44
Tuesday = Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 55, Low 41

Model guidance definitely doesn’t fully clear the Bakersfield by the early afternoon tomorrow, as some outlets suggest, but Bakersfield is not an easy place to get steady precipitation, which is why nobody carries it as late as we do. Still, it arrived early, so why not stay a while? Here is the radar, with that rain hanging around, especially in the mountains.

Akron, Ohio

It worked out mostly by accident, but today is the beginning of the NBA season, featuring the reigning champions, the LA Lakers, and their star, LeBron James, from Akron. It was meant to be.

At 851PM, ET, Akron was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with overcast skies. Winds were light across the region, but generally southerly in response to a warm front over the northern Great Lakes right now. The warm front is attached to a rapidly strengthening area of low pressure that promises to ruin the end of the week in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
The clouds over Akron right now are chaff found across the Eastern Great Lakes, which will shunt off to the northeast as warm air advances in ahead of the cold front coming through later this week. Wednesday should be warm, but increasingly windy and cloudy, with the front arriving on Christmas Eve, near dawn. It should be warm enough that it will start with rain, with a secondary circulation rising from the Tennessee Valley towards eastern Ohio. This advance will stall the cold air, which will dlay the transition to snow until much later, perhaps until the evening on Christmas Eve.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, increasingly windy and cloudy, High 50, Low 32
Christmas Eve – Rain starting early, intensifying and then turning to heavy wet snow around nightfall. 2-4″ by midnight. High

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies (Late rain). High 51, Low 33
Christmas Eve – Rain early with snow in the afternoon. High 51, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Mild with sun through high clouds; breezy in the afternoon (Late RAin) High 50, Low 30
Christmas Eve – Rain mixing with, then changing to snow late, accumulating 1-3 inches; watch for a rapid freeze-up High 47, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 49, Low 31
Christmas Eve – Rain before 2pm, then rain and snow between 2pm and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High 46, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (late rain) High 48, Low 34
Christmas Eve – Rain, Snow in the afternoon. Light snow acumulation, High 49, Low 27

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 49, Low 31
Christmas Eve – Cloudy with a wintry mix, High 47, Low 39

FIO: Tomorrow – Windy overnight and in the evening. High 50, Low 32
Christmas Eve – Rain (with a chance of 2–4 in. of snow) throughout the day. High 48, Low 22

It’s too bad that the forecast couldn’t come in the midst of wet weather. The NWS has rolled out new radar imagery and I could have used it. Alas, here is a look at Akron, on the cusp of clear skies. Don’t get used to them.

Grand Rapids, Michigan

Welcome back to Victoria-Weather’s forecasting adventure zone. Grand Rapids is down wind of Lake Michigan, with fairly strong gusts being noted. Not to give anything away about the precipitation or anything.

At 453PM, ET, Grand Rapids was reporting temperature of 28 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There have been a few streaks of light snow across western Michigan today, provided by winds off the Lake of up to 30mph. This is certainly a microscale event, as more generally, high pressure dominates the region.
A shortwaved ridge over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes is contributing to the high pressure focused over the Upper Midwest and spreading into the Great Lakes. A deep, broad jet trough will overtake the middle of the country and birth an area of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will translate swiftly to central Appalachia. The existing surface ridge will squash the system to the south and east, away from Lower Michigan, but the induced northwest flow will mean a chance for some flakes, particularly on Wednesday, as well as dropping temperatures later in the week.
Tomorrow -Mostly cloudy, High 33, Low 21
Wednesday – Isolated flurries with mostly cloudy skies, High 30, Low 21

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. High 30, Low 22
Wednesday – Overcast High 33, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – Sun through high clouds High 32, Low 18
Wednesday – A couple of snow showers in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 35, Low 20

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 29, Low 19
Wednesday – Cloudy High 33, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 29, Low 22
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 31,Low 24

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 29, Low 19
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 33, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 31, Low 24
Wednesday – Overcast throughout the day. High 33, Low 26

Well, it’s going to come down to cloud cover, but it’s interesting that we are moving in different directions on those highs, right? Here are a few bands of lake effect snow in western Michigan

Tucson, Arizona to Owensboro, Kentucky

Two days, two road trips. This one will be another three day trip, covering 1,654 miles at a pace of 66mph. We’ll collect 529 miles on the first two days, and drive 9 hours to finish off the trip. With a system bubbling up in the southern US, this could be a bit of an interesting foray on the open road.

DAY ONE (Thursday)

Tucson, Arizona

It’s certainly not something we would expect, but there could be torrential rain in Tucson as we get underway on Thursday morning. Low pressure is rising out of northwestern Mexico into the desert Southwest, and will bring Tucson some torrential rain. The feature will lose it’s identity and a bit of it’s available precipitation as it drives into the Rockies, which will mean lighter rain as we pass into New Mexico. That lighter precipitation will continue to be possible, however, until Corona, but we will be dry through Santa Rosa, our day one destination. Unfortunately clouds will obscure the southern high Plains sunset.

DAY TWO (Friday)
The low will shift into the High Plains and intensify overnight Thursday into Friday, but the cold front will be well to our east by the time we get moving in the morning. It will be fairly windy and unusually cool from Santa Rosa through eastern New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle and west Texas. We will be moving quickly enough that we may catch up to the back end of the system as we approach Tulsa, our destination for Friday night.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
Unfortunately, our system is going to be moving to the north, predominantly, instead of to the east, which makes it easier to catch. There is a decent chance that the first contact will be with snow showers in central Missouri, from Springfield onward. It will ultimately transition from snow over to rain in southern Illinois and continue as such into Owensboro. Make no mistake, we will be mostly within the storm’s dry slot, which means light precipitation, or perhaps none at all, throughout this route, but the possibility is going to be ever present.

Owensboro, Kentucky

Owensboro, Kentucky

Owensboro on the Ohio, OK?

At 956PM, Owensboro was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 33 degrees. Most of the region was seeing clear skies, but to the north, a swath of mid layer clouds was cruising through the Great Lakes. In the southern part of Indiana and Illinois, a bit of fog was settling in.
A jet ridge is pushing into the area, which will encourage more stability in the Ohio Valley for the rest of the work week. Unfortunately, it portends an undulating jet structure, and a weekend that is likely to be less pleasant than the conclusion to this week.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 32
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 61, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 59, Low 33
Friday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny High 62, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Some clouds, then sunshine High 59, Low 33
Friday – Partly sunny High 59, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 56, Low 32
Friday – Sunny High 61, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 57, Low 33
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 59, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 56, Low 34
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 61, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 59, Low 44
Friday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 61, Low 33

Don’t get lulled into this pleasant weather for the end of the week, Owensboro. It’s going downhill this weekend. Here is KEVV out of Evansville with the regional forecast.

Tucson, Arizona

It’s been a very long time since we saw a forecast here, so I’m happy to be bringing this one to you, even if the Southwest doesn’t always have the most dynamic weather.

At 953PM, MT, Tucson was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 47 degrees. A cut off low sits over the southwestern US, allowing for the pocket of chilly air in the region, and evidenced by an elevated cold front visible on satellite over western Nevada.
The cut off low projects to be quite impactful for the middle of the country late next week, but for the remainder of the weekend into Monday, it will sag back over the ocean as it drifts to the south southwest. Moderately chilly temperatures with generally clear skies will continue in Tucson.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 40
Monday – Fair skies, High 75, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 74, Low 42
Monday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny High 76, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun High 73, Low 42
Monday – Partly sunny and warm High 75, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 47
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 40
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 44

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 37
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 73, Low 38
Monday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 38

Here is the satellite of the southwest tonight. Note the wispy cold front in western Nevada.

Hanford, California

All right, everyone, let’s get back to work for the week, and start our November with an Election Day forecast in the Central Valley of California.

At 853PM, PT, Hanford was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with clear skies, calm winds and haze. The haze is expected to linger overnight. There is an air quality alert of the Central Valley, in part because of the inversion and stillness leading to the aforementioned haze.
Broadly, the western US is under a ridge, but a weak area of upper level troughing exists, centered over California. This is helping to keep temperatures a bit cooler than they would be otherwise, but there isn’t really an impetus for precipitation. The undercutting trough will shift to the east over the next couple of days, allowing a little bit of heat to return and the haze to become less likely by Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, haze in the morning High 81, Low 48
Tuesday – Clearer still, a bit warmer, High 84, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 46
Tuesday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds, High 83, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups High 84, Low 47
Tuesday – Sunshine and very warm; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups High 83, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 80, Low 49
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 49
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 47
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 49
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 47

I’m the only one calling for a warm up, but the margins are so slim, I don’t think anyone will notice. Here is the satellite, in which you can see a few wispy clouds.