Category Archives: Forecast

Joplin, Missouri

The weather community in the United States is rightfully keeping our focus on the Carolinas this weekend as Florence continues to drench the region. Joplin is another place, though, with a sad note in American weather history. Hopefully, there is nothing traumatic on the way for the Ozarks this September.

At 453PM, CT, Joplin was reporting an extraordinary 89 degrees with mostly clear skies. Temperatures this warm this late into the year a pretty unusual, and the sunny skies in the region don’t suggest a change in the near future.
The current pattern is quite long ranged, with a broad upper level jet stretching from California to the St. Lawrence Seaway. The essentially straight jet, in addition to Florence holding up traffic in the east, means that the broad area of high pressure in the central Plains isn’t going anywhere. Expect more sun and more warmth to begin the week in Joplin,
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 68
Tuesday – Sunny, High 92, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies.  High 90, Low 67
Tuesday – Mainly sunny High 90, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow  Mostly sunny; very warm and humid High 89, Low 67
Tuesday – Mostly sunny; humid High 90, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 69
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 69
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 70

FIO: Clear throughout the day. High 88, Low 68
Tuesday Clear throughout the day. High 90, Low 69

I’m going with a warmer solution, contrary to my counterparts. The NAM isn’t usually the most reliable, but in the middle of the continent, it can be, and it has been in the past 24 hours. Satellite here is focused on Florence, but even if it doesn’t afflict Joplin, it’s worth looking at. 

Gordon comes Grazing

As we sit around watching the destruction of Florence in and around Wilmington, we can think back to last week when it was Gordon we were worried with. He traveled up towards the Great Lakes, and is now a floating mass of detritus in eastern Canada. Before it got to that point, there had been a chance that the feature would bring a little bit of rain to Knoxville, and it sure did. It brought a very little bit of rain to Knoxville. The mountains deflected wet inflow, for the most part, and they stayed dry until a tail extending from the storm brought a little bit of moisture to Rocky Top. There was a 4 way tie atop the leaderboard that would have been undone by Forecast.io, had they had any rain at all in the forecast. 
Actuals: Saturday – High 89, low 71
Sunday – .01 inches of rain, High 89, Low 71

Grade: B

Blacksburg, Virginia

As we await the arrival of Florence on the Carolina coast, there is a hair of good news for Blacksburg, as the storm is forecast to take a bit of a job to the south. This is terrible news for Wilmington and Myrtle Beach, which now stand to take a more direct impact. Let’s see what Blacksburg will endure.

At 1135AM, ET, Blacksburg was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with overcast skies across the region. A lingering surface trough is draped on the Atlantic side of the Appalachians, with a dwindling supply of light rain showers and overcast dotting the landscape. Florence loomed off the coast, and her slow drift towards shore will work to disintegrate the smattering of moisture. 
Thursday will actually be quite pleasant, without a threat for showers nor the onset of tropical winds. As Florence moves closer to the coast, some of the spiral bands may start to lap Blacksburg. Isolated showers and storms are possible. Overland hurricane bands are more apt to produce lightning, as well as brief, isolated tornadoes. It won’t be a wash out for Friday, but Florence won’t quite be on shore by the end of the day yet either. 
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 66
Friday – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 77, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 80, Low 66
Friday – Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. High 76, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy; humid High 80, Low 68
Friday – Cloudy, a little rain; humid High 78, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 7am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny,High 81, Low 66
Friday – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Mostly cloudy,High 78, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy in the morning then mostly sunny with a slight chance of showersand thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 77, Low 67
Friday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 75, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Parly cloudy with isolated storms, high 80, Low 66
Friday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 78, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow  Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 81, Low 64
Friday – Overcast throughout the day. High 78, Low 68

Things are going to go down hill fast in the Carolinas and Blacksburg, but in Blacksburg, there is more time to prepare. Check out the satellite of the looming storm, headed for the Carolinas.

Gordon slips by

There was a dramatic radar loop attached to the forecast for Dothan, but, at least in that southeast Alabama town, it was for naught. The storm moved up the Mississippi Valley and left Dothan unperturbed. Accuweather had no rain in the forecast, and picked up the top forecast for the day because of it. 
Actuals: Wednesday, High 86, Low 74
Thursday – High 91, Low 73

Grade: A-D

Weirton, West Virginia

Today we visit Weirton, WV, way up in the stovepipe of the state. While much of the Eastern US is looking ahead to what impacts Hurricane Florence will have in the region towards the weekend, let’s take a look at what the weather will be like in the lead-up to this powerful cyclone.

At 1153pm EDT, the temperature at nearby Wheeling, WV was 62 degrees under overcast skies. An area of low pressure is quickly exiting the Northeast, which trails a boundary down to the Virginias. Some isolated shower activity is found to the south, but the Weirton area stays dry tonight. High pressure builds in behind it and while Tuesday should remain dry, clouds will continue to persist over the region. The system backs up a smidge on Wednesday, so the clouds will continue to cover the region and while some scattered shower activity should remain off to the south, one cannot completely rule out that a couple stray showers could find their way northward into the city. Overall, not a bad couple of days! Now… about that hurricane…

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. High 73, Low 58.
Wednesday: Cloudy, a few isolated evening showers. High 78, Low 59.

TWC: Tuesday: Cloudy. High 72, Low 56.
Wednesday: Cloudy. High 79, Low 59.

AW: Tuesday: Times of clouds and sun. High 73, Low 57.
Wednesday: A passing shower or two. High 78, Low 61.

NWS: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. High 71, Low 57.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 76, Low 57.

WB: Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 70, Low 58.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 76, Low 60.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. High 71, Low 57.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 76, Low 64.

FIO: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 71, Low 57.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 78, Low 60.

We have some high clouds streaming over the region right now, but nothing in the way of precip is expected tonight. Meanwhile, Florence looks menacing as it continues to intensify and take aim on the Mid-Atlantic.

Ogden, Utah

There is always discussion about the coasts, and in the summer, we worry about tornadoes for the middle of the country. Attention is difficult to come by for the mountains in the middle. Whats going on in that part of the world? 

At 853AM, MT, Ogden was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 65 degrees. High pressure is entrenched over the inter-mountain West, with warm, dry air leading to some red flag warnings for the mountains away from the Salt Lake Basin.
There is a poorly angled upper level trough north of the Canadian border, extending into the north Pacific, and it is slowly trying to work its way south into the western US, but the eastward progress is going to slow down dramatically, to the point that any substantial change to the weather in Ogden should not be anticipated, but temperatures will be a bit cooler thanks to a refreshing breeze. 
Tomorrow – Hazy but mostly sunny, High 86, Low 61
Wednesday – Cooler and still sunny, High 80, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 86, Low 61
Wednesday – Sunny skies. High 80, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 87, Low 60
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine High 82, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 61
Wednesday – Sunny, High 83, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny, High 81, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 61
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 88, Low 61
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 61

Well that doesn’t sound bad at all, just so long as the threat for fires isn’t realized in the Wasatch. Aside from some of the peaks in the south, here is a crystal clear satellite image. 

Sunny on Labor Day Weekend

As we looked forward to Labor Day weekend, we were monitoring a weak wave through the Ohio Valley. In Gadsden, the worry was that some of the waves intake would lead to some popcorn showers and storms and some ruined outdoor plans. Those storms were not to be, however, as storms stayed well to the west of town. It was hot and humid, though, and a fitting send off for summer. Accuweather had the victory, thanks to their dry forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – High 87, Low 66
Sunday – High 89, Low 68

Grade: B-D

Knoxville, Tennessee

Our sojourn to the south is nearly at an end, but we have one more stop in eastern Tennessee. The Smokey Mountains have a microclimate that allows for a great deal more fog and haze than other parts of the country. Is that going to show up in our temperature forecasts?

At 153PM, ET, Knoxville was reporting a temperature of 88 degrees with sunny skies. The remnants of Gordon lingered over northern Arkansas, and the flow enhanced a stationary boundary south of the Ohio River. Because of this enhancement, warm, moist air was being entrained into the boundary at an elevated pace, and the orographic lift over the Smokeys was leading to some isolated thunderstorms in and around the peaks of the region.
As the remnants of Gordon move northeast towards Ohio, generally following along with the existing stationary boundary, though lifting it northward ever so slightly, the warm sector, including Knoxville, will become even more embedded within a very moist, unstable flow. Because the feed into Knoxville will be over the mountains, expect a fairly dry, if muggy Saturday, but things will get a bit more active as a well defined cold front develops through the Tennessee Valley, and moved into town on Sunday night.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, especially in the afternoon, High 87, Low 72
Sunday – Mostly sunny, with increasing clouds and rain late, High 86, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 89, Low 69
Sunday – Considerable cloudiness. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 87, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sun, a thunderstorm; humid High 87, Low 70
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, humid; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 85, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 87, Low 70
Sunday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 87, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thudnerstorms in the morning, then chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 89, Low 73
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 86, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 87 Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 87, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 88, Low 70
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 881, Low 71

You don’t have to be along a coast to be affected with tropical features, but fortunately for Knoxville, you do need a mountain range to find yourself in a rain shadow. Here is the radar showing the popcorn showers and storms presently ongoing.

Dothan, Alabama

The storm that’s on everyone’s mind in southern Alabama today is Gordon. What will he do and where is he going? Let’s find out!

At 1153AM, CT, Dothan was reporting brisk west winds and a temperature of 81 degrees, with overcast skies,. Tropical Storm Gordon remained a mass of rain with a few embedded lightning strikes off the coast from the Florida Panhandle. There has been some organizing through the day, but moving towards the Mississippi Delta will only work to blunt the continued development of the feature. Dothan is presently staying out of the rain associated with the system, and looks to do so until the system begins to unravel as it moves inland. 
Gordon will swiftly waste himself when on land. He will become part of the intake into a ranging cold front through the center of the country, which may spread far enough to the east to leave Dothan with a few showers on Thursday afternoon. Most of the activity will remain west of Dothan, as it will while Gordon is thriving, but with pressure in the storm rising, Dothan will be more reflective of a standard late summer day in southern Alabama.
Tomorrow – Overcast with scattered showers, High 83,Low 74
Thursday – More sun, still some isolated showers, High 88, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms. High 86, Low 73
Thursday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 90, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon.High 86, Low 73
Thursday – Times of clouds and sun; humid High 90, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy High 88, Low 72
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, High 90, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 84, Low 73
Thursday – Partly sunny, A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 88, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 88, Low 72
Thursday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 90, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the afternoon. High 83, Low 75
Thursday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 72

The discussion for this forecast was put together before the numeric forecast that followed, and I can tell you, as of early Tuesday morning, Gordon has made landfall, though he never did attain hurricane status. Below is the radar imagery from the time the forecast was put together.

Gadsden, Alabama

At 856AM, CT, Gadsden was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with sunny skies. The skies across northern Alabama are mottled with clouds, though Gadsden itself was in the clear. Showers are expected to pop up this afternoon, particularly in the southern part of the state, thanks to a weak, non tropical feature off of the coast from Mobile. Moisture entrainment into a disturbance over the Upper Midwest will continue to be a source for showers, storms and clouds in Alabama throughout the day.

The weekend will be dictated by how well the feature organizes, and right now, all models suggest the system will remain a rudderless mass of showers and storms. This means it will continue to be a well of potential shower and thunderstorm activity for the Gadsden area right through Sunday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny with a smattering of showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 70
Sunday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies High 91, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 91,Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sun; humid High 91, Low 67
Sunday – Partly sunny; humid High 92, low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, High 89, Low 70
Sunday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 92, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 92, Low +72

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 89, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 90, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 78
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 86, Low 79

Sound like a pretty standard Labor Day weekend across the southeast. Here is satellite showing off the smattering of convection off shore

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 02 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C02_G16_s20182411842196_e20182411844567_c20182411845004.nc