Category Archives: Forecast

El Paso, Texas

El Paso has always fascinated me. It’s so far removed from the rest of the major urban areas, but is still such a large city. It’s a mystery right here in America. Have you ever heard El Paso described so romantically?

At 651, MT, El Paso was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The tail end of a cold front lies through the southeastern US and into central Texas, and feeding into it, at least aloft, there is some streaming cirrus through west Texas, likely to keep the temperatures from falling off too much overnight.
A broad, generally weak trough extends from Montana to southern California, and is indicating the flow through west Texas. The exit region of the jet will continue to run from the Baja towards the central Plains, which isn’t a particularly moisture rich course. Don’t expect precipitation for El Paso, but a continuation of the high clouds that are mottling the sky tonight.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 48
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny. High 73, Low 49
Monday – Partly cloudy skies, with gusty winds developing during the afternoon. High 66, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with a blend of sun and clouds High 72, Low 47
Monday -Breezy with partial sunshine High 65, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, (late rain)High 71, Low 48
Monday – Mostly sunny, (early rain) High 68, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Windy. (late rain) High 71, Low 56
Monday – Partly cloudy, windy (early rain). High 64, low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 71, Low 48
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until morning. High 72, Low 54
Monday – Breezy overnight and mostly cloudy until evening. HIgh 66, Low 54

That will feel a little brisk out in the open country around El Paso, but I tell you what, I would take a low in the mid 50s regardless of the wind. I would take a high in the mid-50s at this point. Here is the satellite, showing that cirruse traipsing over West Texas.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 07 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C07_G16_s20180482107190_e20180482109575_c20180482110014.nc

Looking for spring

The winter in the Twin Cities has been torturous for folks who aren’t fans of cold weather. When we put together a forecast for Minneapolis at the beginning of the week, though, there was signs of an upturn. While morning lows on Monday were supposed to be below zero, the forecast high by Tuesday afternoon was in the mid to upper 20s, the first time it had been near normal for the entire month of February. What a relief! The forecast was tightly contested, with Weatherbug collecting a narrow victory. The good news continued for Minneapolis, as high temperatures on Wednesday were in the low 40s. Never mind that it was below zero again on Friday morning.
Actuals: Monday – High 10, Low -2
Tuesday – High 28, Low 6

Grade: A-B

Meteorologists remember how to forecast

The verifications throughout the month of February have been, to say the least, embarrassing. Finally, however, last weekend in Greensboro, we figured out what was going on. With a difficult forecast inbound, there was a game effort from all involved, wherein even the worst forecasts were better than the best from Lawton or Rockford. A warm front brought a splash of rain last Saturday, ahead of a cold front that swept through on Sunday. The only real surprise was that the rain was heavier with the warm front than it was the cold front, but the temperatures responded exactly as they were expected, especially by Forecast.io, who nailed the forecast, and Victoria-Weather and Accuweather, who were close behind.
Actuals: Saturday – .22 inches of rain, High 63, Low 45
Sunday – .05 inches of rain, High 69, Low 55

Grade: A-C

Minneapolis, Minnesota

In case I haven’t made it abundantly clear, Victoria-Weather comes to you from the Twin Cities area. A forecast for Minneapolis is very exciting.

At 1053PM, CT, Minneapolis-St. Paul was reporting a temperature of 9 degrees with clear skies. The region was being smothered by surface high pressure, and that coupled with the snow on the ground already was going to lead to more bitter cold overnight and to begin the work week.
The surface high will diminish through the day tomorrow, and eventually, the extended sunlight and a bit of strength to an exiting jet through the Upper Midwest will lead to some warmer conditions on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Cold but with clear skies, High 12, Low -4
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 27, Low 7

TWC: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. HIgh 13, Low -4
Tuesday – Cloudy early, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon High 27, Low 3

AW: Tomorrow – Cold with clouds and sun, High 11, Low -4
Tuesday – Not as cold with a blend of sun and clouds High 26, Low 2

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 12, Low -4
Tuesday – Partly sunny (early snow) High 27, Low 4

WB: Tomorrow – Colder, Partly cloudy, High 11, Low -2
Tuesday – Not as cold, clearing (early snow) High 26, Low 5

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 12, Low -4
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 27, Low 4

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning. High 9, Low -2
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 25, Low 8

Brr! At least it looks like we are on the upswing in the Twin Cities. Check out the satellite. Most of the white from Iowa northward is actually a reflection of the snow on the ground. Iowa has been dumped on this past week, but southern Minnesota caught a big storm about 2 weeks ago that it hasn’t cleared from yet either.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 01 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C01_G16_s20180422232204_e20180422234577_c20180422235023.nc

Where is all this cold air coming from?

I ask you, the reader, because we outlets have continued to whiff on cold forecasts. Now, our forecast for Rockford from last week wasn’t quite the meltdown that we saw in Lawton earlier in the week, the subzero temperatures on both Tuesday and Wednesday after a little bit of snow really turned forecasts on their heads. Accuweather snuckkin with a forecast that was slightly better than the rest of the competition, but it wasn’t very good either. I will give credit where it is due, in that most of the outlets pegged Rockford’s 1-2″ snow accumulation with this round of flurries, but universally, the crew was several degrees too warm, especially on our morning lows,
Actuals: Tuesday – High .3″ of snow, High 18, Low -7
Wednesday – 1.2″ of snow, High 17, Low -3

Grade: C-F

Greensboro, North Carolina

There is no shortage of large metro areas in the state of North Carolina. Tere isn’t a mega city like say, New York or Los Angeles, but the population of the Tar Heel State is deceptively high. Greensboro, for example, is the 3rd largest city in North Carolina, and has nearly 300k as a population. Did you realize that? That’s bigger than Buffalo, and would make it the biggest city in Alabama. I personally think that’s crazy. Ok, let’s tackle a forecast.

At 453PM,ET, Greensboro was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 54. The region, seeing a few clouds, was a bit coolr than points to the south and east, but a light south wind suggested that warm air was on it’s way, and the clouds weren’t the primary issue. A deep trough over the Great Lakes is dredging a lot of warm moist air from the Gulf and Gulf Stream, so while things may not be completely active at this moment, it seems like that will change.
Shower activity will inevitably lift through North Carolina overnight as a near surface perturbation starts tapping into moisture in the southeastern US closer to sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely in the Tennessee Valley, as a warm front continues to lift north through Greensboro. The moisture rich disturbance will quickly be folded into the broader cold front associated with the Great Lakes trough, but the heavy rain and thunderstorm activity will stall in the Appalachians. Instead, through most of the day on Sunday, a diffuse boundary will wade deeper into the state, and mean that things will be dreary and rain to end the weekend.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers, especially in the morning, High 62, Low 45
Sunday – Overcast with some showers throughout the day, High 68, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with periods of rain. High 57, Low 43
Sunday – Cloudy with rain in the morning…then scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 67, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Occasional rain and drizzle High 61, Low 44
Sunday – Cloudy and breezy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 69, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely before 11am, then showers likely after 11am. Cloudy, High 55, Low 43
Sunday – Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. High 68, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Rain likely in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon, High 58, Low 44
Sunday – Rain, High 67, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light rain likely, High 55, Low 44
Sunday – Cloudy with light rain, High 68, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning and evening. High 64, Low 46
Sundaty – Breezy until afternoon and rain starting overnight. High 69, low 64

What a refreshing change, seeing temperatures in the 60s! And the forecast is all rain, no snow! Spring is coming.  Here is the evening radar, showing some rain filtering into coastal Carolina.

“Room to get Chillier”

When I wrote up the forecast for Lawton, Oklahoma, I mentioned that clear skies allowed a little room for things to get chillier. Boy, did they. A slow moving boundary to the northeast was producing precipitation and held back some colder air in the Plains. Well, it moved through Lawton, and it was much colder than anyone forecast. Super Bowl Sunday might have been difficult for satellite customers, with winds touching 40mph from the north for a good chunk of the afternoon. It brought in temperatures that were 10 degrees colder (at least) than most outlets foresaw. This carried over into Monday, where temperatures were, again, 10-15 degrees colder than expected, by almost everyone. Both for the high and the low. This was a fantastically ugly forecast. Forecast.io won handily because their forecast wasn’t a complete disaster. I can’t underscore how bad the forecast was for everyone else, though.
Actuals: Sunday – High 48, Low 20
Monday – High 43, Low 14

Grade: C – F

Rockford, Illinois

Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, late flurries, High 15, Low 2
Wednesday – Snow in the morning, then cold again, High 18, Low 11

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine early then becoming cloudy later in the day (late snow). High 16, Low -1
Wednesday – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day (early snow).High 20, Low 5

AW: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day (late snow).High 16, low -3
Wednesday – A little morning snow; otherwise, frigid with clouds giving way to some sun; storm total 1-2″High 20, Low 6

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds High 16, Low 2
Wednesday – A 20 percent chance of snow before noon. Partly sunny High 21, Low 9

WB: Tomorrow – Mosly sunny in the morning then becoming parly sunny. Late snow, High 13, Low 1
Wednesday – Partly sunny, a 20 percent chance of light snow in the morning, High 18, Low 10

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 16, Low 2
Wednesday – Partly cloudy wih a slight chance of light snow, High 21, Low 9

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until night (late snow). High 14, Low -1
Wednesday – Snow (1–2 in.) until morning. High 20, Low 8

Port St. Lucie, Florida

Well, that was certainly a thrilling football game today, wasn’t it?! Now we head off to South Florida, one of the only things hotter than the offenses in Minneapolis were tonight!

At 135am EST, the temperature at Port. St. Lucie, FL was 63 degrees under overcast skies. A storm system is pushing away from the East Coast today, with a potent low pressure system bringing plenty of misery to New England (too soon?) while the tail end of the associated cold front is clearning the FL Peninsula. Some isolated showers along the front have shifted off to the east already, and with high pressure building in behind the front, dry weather is expected today and into Tuesday as well. More sunshine is expected on Tuesday, with temperatures inching up a couple of degrees.

Monday: Cloudy early, then clearing. High 74, Low 62.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 76, Low 60.

TWC: Monday: Isolated AM shower, then becoming sunny in afternoon. High 74, Low 64.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 78, Low 59.

AW: Monday: A little morning rain, then variable cloudiness. High 75, Low 63.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and pleasant. High 79, Low 59.

NWS: Monday: Early morning showers, then mostly cloudy. High 74, Low 61.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 59.

WB: Monday: Partly sunny, chance of morning storm. High 72, Low 64.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 76, Low 59.

WN: Monday: No Data
Tuesday: No Data

FIO: Monday: Light morning rain, then mostly cloudy. High 71, Low 63.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy overnight. High 76, Low 63.

Just a few showers are left over south Florida as the system departs the region. Dry weather ahead!

Chilly On Top

Well it looked like a messy start to the weekend in Bangor as a system shifting by the region brought a couple inches of morning snow. Thankfully, it scooted out pretty quickly and was dry for the rest of the weekend, albeit much colder. VW’s more aggressive forecast for being cold spurred us to victory!

Friday: 1.9″ of snow. High 33, Low 2.
Saturday: High 13, Low -4.
Forecast Grade: A