Santa Rosa, California

We are in the middle of January, and especially those of us on the East Coast are probably pining for some sunny California weather. of course, Santa Rosa is in the North Bay, so we may not be that fortunate.

At 653AM, PT, Santa Rosa was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with clear skies. There were clouds and fog still lingering to the south over San Francisco and inland towards Modesto, and temperatures there were up to 10 degrees warmer.
There is a weak trough flow in California, which is allowing for the modest on shore flow, bringing enough moisture for some morning clouds and mist along the coast. The trough will strengthen inland over the next couple of days, however, models suggest a lingering coastal trough, perhaps pointing to offshore flow, breezy winds but generally clear skies through mid week.
Tomorrow – Morning clouds and haze possible, High 59, Low 37
Wednesday – Less cloudy and hazy in the morning, a little warmer, High 63, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 39
Wednesday – A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 63, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 58, Low 38
Wednesday – Partly sunny High 61, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 60, Low 41
Wednesday – Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 62, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny. areas of fog in the morning. High 58, Low 44
Wednesday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny. High 61, Low 44

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 41
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 59, Low 42
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 62, Low 41

Now, for an alternative take, here is KPIX’s Darren Peck with a look at the weather for the Bay Area.

Oxnard, California

As I get this post set up and prepped, I would like to note that it was -20 here at the Victoria-Weather offices today. It’s that attitude I get to take to this forecast for southern California.

At 551PM, PT, Oxnard was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with overcast conditions. A large area of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest was influencing weather across the western US, with a stream of clouds, and some onshore flow over southern California. Oxnard had broken out a bit more than their counterparts to the south, as Los Angeles was also experiencing some early evening haze.
High pressure is going to build back in, but it won’t eliminate the near coastal moisture. Clouds will likely be problematic in higher terrain, but they will just momentarily blot the sun through the weekend in Oxnard. Expect the threat for fog to arise overnight, though not as significantly as will be found to the south. Off shore flow will ensure that the haze doesn’t linger during the day.
Tomorrow – Early haze, mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 50
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 67, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 59, Low 48
Sunday – Partly cloudy. Strong Santa Ana winds possible. High 67, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds giving way to some sun and cool, High 59, Low 47
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 65, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny High 59, Low 46
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Low clouds and fog in the morning, then sunny, High 60, Low 47
Sunday – Sunny in the morning, then partly cloudy, High 66, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 46
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 45

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 63, Low 49
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 51

I’m going to really take a look at those winds on Sunday. I just don’t see it being that breezy in Oxnard. Satellite shows the mid layer clouds as well as a thatch of low clouds and haze south of the Oxnard area.

Trenton, New Jersey

Erie is going to go down as a 2021 forecast, so here it is, the first official forecast of 2022.

At 1153PM, ET, Trenton was reporting low clouds and rain, with a temperature of 53 degrees. S cold front over the eastern Great Lakes is being held up by a developing and active area of low pressure. The cold front is backed by a deep cold pool, and that conflict of air mass is helping the low in the Poconos to continue to strengthen. In the short term, this means rain for Trenton.
The initial feature will move towards the Canadian Maritimes, but the upper level dynamics in the region will remain unchanged. A deeper, stronger area of low pressure will emerge in the southeast while the cold front starts to sink towards Trenton. The cold air will arrive before the northeastward moving low pressure center, and as a result, snow is anticipated, at the very least to mix in on Monday, particularly around midday. This second feature is going to be stronger, windier as well as being more quickly moving. By the end of the day, it will be quite a bit clearer.
Tomorrow – Rain likely through much of the day, High 57, Low 36
Monday – Rain mixing to snow, clearing late, High 36, Low 25

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower High 59, Low 37
Monday – Scattered snow flurries and snow showers before noon. Becoming partly cloudy later. High 36, Low 23

AW: Tomorrow – Considerable clouds and mild; a little morning rain followed by a passing shower this afternoon High 56, Low 35
Monday – Clouds giving way to some sun and much colder High 34, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers after noon. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy, High 59, Low 35
Monday – Mostly sunny High 34, Low 22

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers, High 59, Low 37
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain showers High 59, Low 36
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 36, Low 33

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain overnight and in the morning. High 61, Low 35
Monday – Overcast throughout the day. High 36, Low 24

A bold move by other outlets keeping precipitation out of the picture entirely on Friday. Still, and especially with snow flurries, it tends to get everywhere. I don’t think anyone will cut precip out of the forecast on the coast in their forecast for Monday afternoon and evening. Here is all the rain around the region tonight.


Erie, Pennsylvania

We are starting the year as urgently as possible, as this forecast will post just as the day turns to 2022. Erie is right in the middle of the south shore of the lake that bears its name, and is susceptible to lake effect snow this time of year. Will Erie start 2022 on a snowy note?

At 1211AM, ET, Erie was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with light rain. Heavier rain was falling between Erie and Buffalo than in either of those cities, but with temperatures warm enough even at this early hour, the threat for snow to accompany the rain can be ignored. A cold front lies through southern Ontario, helping to generate the few showers on the southeast side of Lake Erie, but a broad, distended area of low pressure stretches along the Ohio Valley, and is a focal point for more robust showers, with some thunderstorms on the south side of this feature.
For at least the next day or so, these two features will run in parallel. The low over the Ohio Valley will slide just to the south of the cold front, holding the boundary in place the whole while. As the Ohio Valley feature shifts into the Canadian Maritimes, the front will start to shift a little bit more to the southeast, bringing about colder air and a significant threat for snow, somewhat amplified by the Lake. After holding steady through the mid afternoon tomorrow, temperatures will get steadily colder, and are likely to be non standard through the weekend.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, overcast, High 49, Low 42
Sunday – Early rain, followed by snow through the day, High 42, Low 27

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 51, Low 38
Sunday – Snow during the morning will transition to snow showers during the afternoon. High 38, Low 25

AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover and mild with a little rain; a wet start to the new year High 50, Low 38
Sunday – Rather cloudy and colder with snow showers, accumulating an inch or two High 39, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers before 2pm, then rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, High 51, Low 40
Sunday – Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after 11am. High 40, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. High 50, Low 37
Sunday – Rain showers in the morning. Snow showers. Light snow accumulation. High 37, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light rain, High 51, Low 39
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a light wintry mix, High 39, Low 32

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until night, starting again in the afternoon. High 47, Low 36
Sunday – Possible light rain (with a chance of 1–2 in. of snow) overnight and in the morning. High 37, Low 22

WeatherNation with a rough start for the year, having the shortest hourly forecast. Of course, it is longer than it used to be, so their forecast is going to be better than we are accustomed to. Radar is most active northeast of Erie. Happy New Year!

Sebastian, Florida

I spend every other Christmas in Florida, and it definitely feels right to me. So come with me and enjoy the holiday among palm trees and hopefully some sunshine.

At 1035PM, ET, Sebastian was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 58 degrees. A cold front moved through town earlier in the week, and even dropped an isolated tornado in the Fort Myers, but has left the southeastern US embraced in a pleasant bubble of high pressure.
Some stability in the southeastern US will be in order through Christmas and Boxing Day, with a very strong, very linear jet streak running through the Great Lakes is going to continue to tamp down any significant weather. Unseasonable warmth will be in order for Sebastian.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 55
Sunday – Sunny, High 79, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 81, Low 55
Sunday – Sunny skies.  High 80, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine; beautiful weather for Christmas Day High 80, Low 58
Sunday – Sunny High 78, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 78, Low 57
Sunday – Sunny, High 77, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 57
Sunday – Sunny, High 76, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 60
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 58

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 77, Low 55
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 75, Low 56

With skies as clear as this, you can almost make out Santa and his reindeer. Merry Christmas all!

Grand Rapids, Michigan

A large nasty area of low pressure is threatening to create another significant December severe weather outbreak, this time in Minnesota and Iowa. How well will the nasty weather hold together? Does Michigan need to brace itself

At 953AM, ET, Grand Rapids was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 50 degrees. Low pressure in the Plains was already working to pump warm air into the Great Lakes, leading to near record highs at this early hour. Snow melt was putting a lot of extra moisture in the air and leading to extra fog and clouds across the region. Eventually, there may be some clearing later today, but not much, even with aggressive southerly flow.
The rapidly developing, strong system in the Plains is also going to be very fast moving, with the associated cold front arriving in Michigan early tomorrow morning. Fortunately by that point, the dynamics of severe weather will be gone, and even the associated moisture will be drawn north to the center of low pressure. and little to no precipitation will accompany frontal passage. More typical December weather will follow on Thursday afternoon and into Friday, with clearer, colder but less breezy conditions.
Tomorrow – Early drizzle and wind, then clearing and colder, High 57, Low 32
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 36, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with a few clouds from time to time. (early rain) HIgh 60, Low 35
Friday, Partly cloudy skies. High 38, Low 28

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and windy (early rain) High 59, Low 34
Friday – Sun and areas of high clouds in the morning; mostly cloudy in the afternoon High 40, Low 28

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (Early rain) High 58, Low 36
Friday – A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 2pm, then a slight chance of rain showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers after 5pm. Partly sunny, High 40, Low 29

WB: Tomorrow – Windy, Mostly sunny, High 61, Low 34
Friday – Mostly sunny until midday, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain and snow showers, High 35, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 59, Low 43
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 39, Low 29

FIO: Tomorrow – Dangerously windy until afternoon. High 60, Low 34
Friday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 39, Low 28

The map is very cloudy this morning, and may be for the entire day. Fortunately for Grand Rapids, it looks like they are going to duck the worst of the weather, and will instead jump right back to December.

Lynchburg, Virginia

We are headed smack dab into the middle of Virginia for our forecast. There is snow on the ground in this part of the country, but what can be said about Virginia this weekend?

At 1054AM, ET, Lynchburg was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The overcast is ahead of a warm front associated with a vast area of low pressure in the Plains. Moisture will be more plentiful on the western side of the Appalachians, but some light drizzle is still possible this afternoon. When skies clear this afternoon, expect a significant warm up, which will only continue on Saturday.
The cold front will arrive with vigor on Saturday evening. While strong and severe weather is anticipated in the mid-Mississippi Valley today and tonight, the teeth will be taken out of the storm. There could be some strong winds, but the continuing elongation of the trough and the disruption caused by the mountains will ensure that the storm won’t have the tornado or heavy rain threat seen today. The front will move through quickly, leading to a cool, dry day on Sunday. The upper trough is going to flatten through the Mid-Atlantic, and in conjunction with post-frontal downsloping, the temperature drop will be blunted, but the dry air will remain.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms in the evening, High 71, Low 47
Sunday – Clearer and cooler, High 54, Low 39

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies with periods of rain later in the day. Thunder possible. High 70, Low 48
Sunday – A mainly sunny sky. High 53, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and becoming windier with the temperature near the record of 71 set in 2015; a shower and t-storm in the afternoon High 70, Low 49
Sunday – Mostly sunny and cooler High 53, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers before 4pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 4pm and 5pm, then showers after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. High 69, Low 48
Sunday – Sunny, High 52, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms might cause gusty winds in the afternoon. High 66, Low 49
Sunday – Sunny, High 51, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers and isolated storms, High 68, Low 39
Sunday – Sunny, High 52, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the evening. High 69, Low 51
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 52, Low 32

Looks like that warm frontal rain has reached Lynchburg since this forecast began! The real weather story for the region will be tomorrow afternoon with a cold front, from a system that is causing big problems in the middle of the country right now.

Asheville, North Carolina

Asheville is one of the more surprisingly attractive vacation destinations, thanks both to the setting in the Blue Ridge Mountains, and destinations like the Biltmore Mansion. Hopefully, the weather holds for any off season visitors.

At 1154AM, ET, Ashville was reporting some haze, with clear skies and a temperature of 60 degrees. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes was the name of the game, but lingering moisture from the Gulf was interacting with a surface feature in Alabama, bringing about some clouds south and west of the southern Appalachians, which was generating western slope overcast and a large whorl south of Asheville, but no real concerns.
All eyes will be on a still developing trough and surface low in the northern High Plains. A cold front will be come well evident west of the Appalachians, from Lake Erie to Arkansas by tomorrow night, and the rotational energy with the system will eventually bring some warmer conditions and scattered clouds on Sunday and Monday as the boundary stages. As the parent low starts to track poleward and the front encounters the mountains, it will begin to deteriorate. Still, a little bit of rain is expected on Monday evening, with some cooling after the forecast period.
Tomorrow – Breezy and mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 46
Monday – Partly cloudy early, with increasing clouds and rain late, High 61, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 55, Low 43
Monday – Overcast with rain showers at times. High 63, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler High 55, Low 44
Monday – Mostly cloudy with a bit of rain in the afternoon High 66, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (late rain), High 56, Low 44
Monday – Showers likely, mainly between 11am and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, High 64, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy (late rain) High 53, Low 46
Monday – Showers likely, High 63, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, high 55, Low 43
Monday – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 63, Low 47

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 56, Low 44
Monday – Overcast throughout the day. High 65, Low 35

Those lows on Monday are going to be non standard, and places like The Weather Channel will be hurt by not having hourly forecasts out that far. If the clouds don’t fill in ahead of the front tomorrow like we expect, there is some real bust potential. Today, the satellite imagery looks more interesting than it probably is.

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

The first forecast for December is on its way, and we’re going to one of the weather capitals of the country.

At 1053AM, CT, Oklahoma City was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees. There was a splotch of clouds over the Oklahoma City airport, but the rest of the region was seeing clear skies. Lingering moisture associated with the return flow at the back end of previous ridge led to morning haze and fog across the Gulf Coast, but generally laminar flow over the country is aiding in the development of weak low pressure in Texas. It is propelling clouds and moisture north into Oklahoma.
As the strong seasonal jet, presently along the Canadian border begins to trough in the Canadian Prairies, a deep area of low pressure will emerge in the northern High Plains and the extra agitation will potentially trigger some light rain later in the day on Saturday. As the feature shifts to the east into the Great Lakes, the clouds will clear in order to lead to a warmer afternoon, but the beginning of next week will be on the colder side.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a little bit of drizzle, High 62, Low 45
Sunday – Warmer and clearer late, brisk in the evening. High 71, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 59, Low 46
Sunday – Sunny. Becoming windy late. High 73, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler High 61, Low 46
Sunday – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, mostly sunny and milder High 73, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 49
Sunday – Sunny, High 73, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, cooler, High 58, Low 48
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 49
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 47

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 62, Low 46
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 72, Low 45

The temperature forecast was all over the map, model wise, but forecast outlets really converged. Here is a look at this afternoon’s satellite imagery, showing clouds on the way.

San Antonio, Texas

Every time I think of San Antonio, I find it is in a much further south location than I remember. It’s a big city that is totally different than any of the other big Texas towns.

At 951PM, CT, San Antonio was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 51 degrees. Dew points were nearly 50 degrees across the region as well, and some early fog was settling into the region. Low pressure had become established just offshore from Texas, and was helping to generate heavy rain in East Texas, with something resembling a feeder band arcing around towards Amarillo and Lubbock. The low was developed near the right entrance of a jet streak, and at the tail of a surface trough, and is not tropical in nature.
As the jet shifts away, the low will disintegrate into the Gulf, while high pressure develops in the southern US. The surface pressure ridge will be transient, though upper level support will remain in place. Westerly flow across the southern Rockies will allow some additional warmth to spread across the region to begin the work week.
Tomorrow – Morning clouds and fog, followed by a nice afternoon, High 68, Low 48
Monday – Sunny, High 73, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 71, Low 46
Monday – Sunny skies. High 72, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Warmer with times of clouds and sun; ideal weather for one of the busiest travel days of the year High 70, Low 46
Monday – Comfortable with plenty of sunshine High 72, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 68, low 47
Monday – Sunny High 70, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Not as cool, Partly cloudy, High 67, low 46
Monday – Sunny, High 70, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 47
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 44

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 69, Low 46
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 72, Low 43

Quite a bit of rain is showing up on radar, but none of it looms for San Antonio.