St. Joseph, Missouri

We’re going to check in a little north of Kansas City for our first forecast of the week. What can we expect from the weather in the middle of the country to start the week?

At 1153AM, CT, St. Joseph was reporting light fog and a temperature of 36 degrees. They weren’t indicating cloud cover, but a quick look at satellite imagery would confirm that they are socked in with overcast. Warm temperatures were melting snow and leading to saturated air masses from Kansas City to the Canadian border, and with warm temperatures expected to continue, no end is in sight.
A weak upper level trough is parenting an even weaker surface feature sliding out of the Rockies and into the Texas/Oklahoma region through the night tonight and into tomorrow. An inverted trough associated with this system will sneak into the St. Joseph area in the evening and linger through the morning. Some light precipitation, likely just mist mixed with some flakes, will persist overnight. Temperatures hovering close to freezing will make for treacherous roads in the region on Wednesday morning.
Tomorrow – Light precip, including snow and freezing drizzle, starting in the evening, High 32, low 27
Wednesday – Mixed precipitation including snow and light icing through mid morning, then clearing, High 34, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy (late snow) High 29, Low 26
Wednesday – Cloudy skies. A few flurries or snow showers possible. high 30, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy High 32, Low 27
Wednesday – A passing morning flurry; otherwise, partly sunny High 32, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (Late snow) High 33, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy (Early snow) High 33, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, high 31, low 29
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 31, Low 27

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light snow, High 33, low 28
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 33, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy tomorrow morning. High 32, low 27
Wednesday – Overcast throughout the day. High 34, Low 25

Ah, the dangerous mixed bag. Model guidance is pretty low key on precipitation out of this event, and you could go a lot of different ways. I feel like, with temperatures as warm as they are, we are going to expect a lot more low visibility misty fog, and not as many flakes. I don’t know where TWC is coming from with their temperatures. Too cloudy for it to be so cold, in my opinion. In any event, here is the satellite, with a dome of cloud cover over the area.

Prescott, Arizona

Prescott is the sweet spot of Arizona. Not as hot as Phoenix in the summer, not as snowy as Flagstaff in the winter. Sweet.

At 753PM, MT, Prescott was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 40 degrees. Clear skies have moved across Arizona in the wake of a fairly wet week across the state.
A high amplitude but somewhat shortwave trough is rolling through the western US, allowing for surface high pressure across the Intermountain West. Expect continued zonal flow across Arizona, which should mean a few scattered clouds in Prescott.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 62, Low 27
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 60, Low 29
Monday -Cloudy. High 59, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 60, Low 27
Monday – Mostly cloudy High 60, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow Sunny, High 57, Low 29
Monday – Mostly cloudy High 57, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 59, Low 30
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 34

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 29
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day, High 59, Low 30
Monday – Overcast throughout the day. High 59, Low 34

Well, that’s about it. Pretty easy breezy, if I’m being honest. Take a look at this fairly tranquil satellite imagery. I can see Phoenix!

Hinesville, Georgia

The current pattern as it stands features a broad trough that doesn’t want to move. The exit arm has roughly been in the area of the Appalachians, give or take a few miles, which has meant an active start to the year in the southeast, and fairly warm January for a lot of people. Will those trends continue this week in Hinesville?

At 1256PM, ET, Hinesville was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A feature tucked from the southern Appalachians west-southwest towards the Mississippi Valley was drawing a moisture rich flow across already rain soaked lands, and overcast was common in Georgia, but parts of the coast have broken out, and temperatures in the region were 10 degrees or so warmer than interior parts of the state.
The instability derives from jets converging in the southern Appalachians, rather than from the tail of an advancing boundary, the light to moderate rain will remain in place over the interior southeast for the next couple of days. While no significant rain is in the forecast, the continued moisture filled flow across the region will lend itself to some early morning fog and low clouds, with a stray, isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon for each of the next two days.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, especially early, High 79, low 60
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of some drizzle before sunrise, High 80, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies. High 80, Low 63
Wednesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 81, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning; otherwise, mainly cloudy and very warm, High 80, Low 64
Wednesday- Considerable cloudiness and very warm High 80, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of dense fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy High 79, Low 62
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of dense fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Visibility of a quarter mile or less at times in the morning. High 79, low 63
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 79, low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, high 79, low 62
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 80, low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 81, Low 62
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 80, Low 61

Not often that I am the most skeptical of an areas chances at staying dry. If they see anything, it will just be a spritz, and barely noticeable, but with this much moisture in the region, it’s hard to rule out. Take a look at the local satellite, which is showing quite a bit of cloud cover.

Billings, Montana

I’m really doing it! here is a look at the weather in Billings. It’s usually a challenging endeavor, forecasting in Billings, but will the weather be even more uncooperative than usual?

At 1153AM, MT, Billings was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 19 degrees. High pressure had filtered into the high Plains and was smushing a bunch of clouds and moisture into the Front Range. There were a few flurries southeast of town headed towards Wyoming, but a weak lee perturbation would ensure the chance for some light snow through the early morning hours tomorrow. There is a winter weather advisory for the region.
A vast area of low pressure, as opposed the the wave n the region right now, will shift from the Pacific Northwest, where it will do considerable damage as a snowmaker, however it will not make as much hay on the other side of the Rockies. Models indicate that Billings will be in a rain — or snow — shadow through most of the day on Saturday, even as low pressure rematerializes as the upper trough makes it’s way through the Rockies. The low will redevelop over Wyoming and colorado, however, which means Billings will be getting colder, whether or not it gets any snow.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with an early flurry, High 25, low 8
Saturday – Increasing clouds, warmer with a chance for an early flake, High 40, Low 18

TWC: Tomorrow – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. (Early snow High 33, Low 13
Saturday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 40, Low 22

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of snow showers in the morning; otherwise, cold with partial sunshine High 31, low 9
Saturday – Mainly cloudy with snow showers, accumulating a coating to an inch High 28, Low 22

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of snow before 8am. Mostly sunny High 26, Low 6
Saturday – A 20 percent chance of snow before 11am. Mostly cloudy High 36, Low 20

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 29, Low 11
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, high 37, Low 22

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow, High 26, Low 6
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light snow, High 36, Low 20

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day High 32, low 11
Saturday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 39, low 22

Take a look at local affiliate KTVQ’s forecast for the city. I’m surprised how similar the national affiliates were. What do the locals say?

Deltona, Florida

All right, guys! My sabbatical is over, and the new year is beginning in the same state we left off in — Florida!

At 253PM, ET, Deltona was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees and sunny skies. An area of low pressure in the Tennessee Valley was producing a vast cloud field in the southeastern US, sparing most of the Florida Peninsula but drawing a warm flow across the region. Deltona, as noted, was in the upper 70s, but the 80s were seen widely around the area as well.
The storm is going to advance to the northeast, along the exit arm of the parent jet trough. The center of the system will get distended as it tracks through the Appalachians, but the associated cold front will arrive early on Saturday morning. This will be good news, as cold fronts tend to be fairly active and dangerous for Florida in the day time, where there is often a great deal of available instability. The showers and storms that move through will be through by the early afternoon, which will ensure a fairly pleasant afternoon, and the avoidance of any truly nasty weather this weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, increasing clouds, High 84, Low 63
Saturday – Early rain with isolated thunderstorms, then sunny and cooler, High 75, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 84, Low 65
Saturday – A steady rain in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon High 76, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – A steady rain in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon – High 84, Low 66
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and not as warm with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; breezy in the afternoon High 75, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 84, Low 63
Saturday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 75, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, patchy fog, High 83, Low 68
Saturday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 77, Low 60

WN: Tomorrow – PArtly cloudy, High 83, Low 65
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 75, Low 65

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 86, Low 65
Saturday – Light rain in the morning and afternoon. High 74, Low 54

Here is the satellite imagery, giving you a sense for the scale of the feature in the southeastern US. IT’s going to look markedly weaker by the time it arrives in central Florida.

Springfield, Massachusetts

Only a fortnight left of shopping until Christmas! What will the weather be like in Springfield, MA as we head into the weekend to get those gifts?

At 1156pm EST, the temperature at Springfield, MA was 20 degrees under fair skies. High pressure is found over New England currently, but the next couple of days will see conditions deteriorate rapidly. An area of low pressure is developing in the Southeast and will scoot its way up the Eastern Seaboard throughout the day Friday. Rain showers will shift into the area by the evening hours, and increase in intensity overnight into Saturday as the low draws closer to the region. Some heavy rains are expected Saturday morning and should finally taper off some during the afternoon and early evening hours as the low shifts through New England. Winds are expected to pick up late Saturday as well, making for a rather miserable start to the weekend.

Friday: Increasing evening showers. High 40, Low 21.
Saturday: Heavy morning rains, becoming lighter in evening. High 52, Low 40.

TWC: Friday: Afternoon rain showers. High 39, Low 20.
Saturday: Rain. High 52, Low 37.

AW: Friday: A bit of afternoon rain. High 37, Low 21.
Saturday: Heavy rain tapering off. High 50, Low 35.

NWS: Friday: Mostly cloudy then chance of wintry mix. High 35, Low 20.
Saturday: Heavy rain, areas of fog. High 42, Low 35.

WB: Friday: Chance of rain showers. High 38, Low 20.
Saturday: Rain. High 53, Low 38.

WN: Friday: Cloudy with light showers likely. High 38, Low 20.
Saturday: Cloudy with light rain. High 50, Low 35.

FIO: Friday: Light rain starting in afternoon. High 43, Low 23.
Saturday: Rain until evening. High 56, Low 42.

Some high clouds are streaming over the area currently, but the system taking shape in the Southeast is what will bring our weekend rains.

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Whoops! This was supposed to be posted on Monday evening. However, something from Real Life Inc. interfered and even though the data had already been gathered, I forgot to disperse it to our faithful readers! Apologies! I’ll understand if I get one fewer present under the tree.

At 951pm EST, the temperature at Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT) was 56 degrees with light rain falling. As a cold front is pushing through the region, a few straggling showers are expected over the area early Tuesday morning, but then conditions clear out by midday as high pressure works in behind the system. Wednesday should be dry, but much colder as high pressure shifts overhead.

Tuesday: A few morning showers. High 53, Low 27.
Wednesday: Clearing and colder. High 34, Low 21.

TWC: Tuesday: Cloudy, chance of morning showers. High 57, Low 31.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 34, Low 20.

AW: Tuesday: Cooler, a shower in the morning. High 54, Low 30.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and colder. High 35, Low 22.

NWS: Tuesday: Chance of morning rain showers. High 55, Low 30.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 32, Low 20.

WB: Tuesday: Chance of morning rain showers. High 55, Low 30.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 32, Low 24.

WN: Tuesday: A few morning showers. High 54, Low 29.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 33, Low 21.

FIO: Tuesday: Light rain in the morning. High 58, Low 30.
Wednesday: Clear throughout the day. High 33, Low 24.

Punta Gorda, Florida

We’re crossing the Sunshine State today, from the southeastern coast to the west coast. Of course, everyone calls it the Gulf Coast, but we’re not here for a geography lesson. (unless you are, and then I’m sorry for the confusion)

At 453PM, ET, Punta Gorda was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with fair skies. Nearby spots, like Fort Myers were popping up into the low 80s as the region was encompassed by high pressure ahead of a cold front advancing through the southeastern US.
As the boundary moves closer to the coast, moisture will become entrained across the Florida Peninsula. The boundary itself won’t ever arrive in Punta Gorda, but the more aggressive breezes across the area, from southwest to northeast, will be conducive to a few isolated showers and storms. The activity will largely be in the middle of the state, but it’s never a bad idea to include thunderstorms in a Floridian forecast.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, warm, High 86, Low 63
Wednesday – Isolated thunderstorms, High 85, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 85, Low 62
Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 84, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant High 81, Low 66
Wednesday – Partly sunny, very warm and more humid with a shower in places in the afternoon High 86, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 66
Wednesday – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 83, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 82, Low 65
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 82, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 83. Low 67

Here is a look at the forecast for the next few days from Fox 4 in Fort Myers, just down the road from Punta Gorda.

Miami, Florida

Miami isn’t the largest city in Florida, nor is it the capital, but it is probably the most famous (and surely has the largest metro area).

At 1053PM, Miami was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 66 degrees. The state of Florida was enjoying a pleasant evening across the board, as the subtropical jet lies safely over the Tennessee Valley.
High pressure is safely entrenched over the southeast, though a short wave is forecast to develop over the lower Mississippi Valley late in the week. Because of the weak rotation in the region, expect a little bit more moisture to be entrained across Florida by Friday afternoon. bringing in some clouds.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, fairly cool, High 75, Low 58
Friday – Partly cloudy, more humid, High 77, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 74, Low 55
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 78, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and nice High 74, Low 57
Friday – Nice with sunshine and patchy cloud High 78, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 60
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 76, High 65

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 56
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 60
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 65

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 62
Friday – Clear throughout the day. HIgh 80, Low 63

This is the kind of weather you want when you visit Florida, right? Not too hot, a lot of sun and absolutely not a flake of snow.

Jackson, Michigan

We sure are looking at an interesting forecast for the Great Lakes today. It’s a mystery even what type of precipitation will be falling in an hour.

At 1256AM, ET, Jackson was reporting a brisk 35mph easterly wind gust with overcast skies and a temperature of 37 ahead of a vast batch of heavy rain consuming most, if not all of western Michigan. A large area of occluded low pressure is centered over north central Iowa. The occluded boundary is ranging from there to Michigan. Jackson appears to northeast of the warm occlusion. Much of Michigan is in a winter weather warning or advisory, however Jackson is south of these alerts.
After the rain that will come this morning, a well defined dry tongue will move into Lower Michigan through the middle of the day on Sunday. The back end of this feature is becoming significantly less organized and unable to access the same level of moisture. Still, light snow showers will persist in the Jackson region into Monday afternoon, but a cool down is not likely to follow suit after becoming cut off from the deeply occluded circulation.
Tomorrow – early rain, becoming mixed and eventually predominately snow in the evening. High 37, Low 33
Monday – Light wet snow, High 33, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain ending early. Remaining cloudy, High 43, Low 35
Monday – Overcast, early snow, HIgh 35, Low 28

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers, perhaps mixed with snow late in the day High 43, Low 35
Monday – Low clouds and colder HIgh 35, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly before 10am. (Late mix) HIgh 42, Low 35
Monday – Cloudy (Early mix becoming snow) HIgh 35, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Rain showers likely (late mix) High 43, Low 34
Monday – Cloudy (Early mix) High 34, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain likely, High 42, Low 35
Monday – Mostly cloudy )Early mix), High 35, Low 31

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day. High 42, Low 34
Monday – Overcast throughout the day. HIgh 35, Low 28

That was a difficult forecast. The precipitation in western Michigan has already started a transition to a mix, even as I was writing this forecast post, if that gives an idea of the uncertainty we will be dealing with.