Category Archives: Forecast

Weather Wayback… a quick bounceback

Presently in Lake Havasu City, Arizona, it is 97 degrees. It’s shortly below midnight, if that gives you any extra perspective. Back in November, just before Thanksgiving, Lake Havasu was coming off a splash of rain the Friday before, and was very slow to recover. Even the following Monday, it was only 72 degrees for a high on Monday, with temperatures climbing on Tuesday, but even then only into the low 80s. Again, at present, it is 97 degrees, just before midnight currently. Back in the autumn, it was The Weather Channel who had the top forecast in a much more comfortable day. 
Actuals: November 20th: High 72, Low 47
November 21st: High 82, Low 54

Grade: A-C

Miami, Florida

Miami is a fun town. As we reach the height of hurricane season, though, it might get a bit dicey. At the very least, it might warrant a longer look than normal!

At 0153AM. ET, Miami was reporting a temperature of 87 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The clouds have put a dent in the temperatures so far, as 90s have already arrived across the state in Fort Myers and Naples. There was little to suggest that Miami won’t catch up later in the day.
The western Atlantic is fairly quiet, despite Ernesto churning in the central part of the ocean. High pressure east of Florida is preventing most trade activity from strafing the Peninsula, but the southern end lies astride of Miami. For the next couple of days, the light east wind may lead to a few showers clipping south Florida, though sun will continue and highs will remain in the low 90s.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, passing showers, High 92, low 80
Friday – Partly cloudy, passing showers, High 92, Low 80

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 88, Low 81
Friday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny High 88. Low 81

AW: Tomorrow – A passing morning shower; otherwise, partly sunnyHigh 91, Low 82
Friday – Sunshine and patchy clouds, a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 91, Low 81

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 88, Low 81
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 88, low 81

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 81
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 81

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 81
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 81

FIO: tomorrow – Humid throughout the day and partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 89, Low 82
Friday – Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 80, Low 81

My rule of thumb is always forecast rain in Florida, but apparently, there are a few people more confident in dry days than me.Here is a look at the tropics, with high pressure east of Florida

 

Boulder, Colorado

Today we take a trip to the gorgeous front range of the Rockies and visit the city of Boulder, CO! Let’s see what’s happening in this picturesque locale…

At 1036pm MDT, the temperature at Boulder, CO was 63 degrees under fair skies. A disturbance is exiting the Central Plains out into the Mid-MS River Valley and a weak low is dropping from SD to NE. Meanwhile, the monsoon continues to affect much of the Four Corners region, as it normally does this time of year. Much of the monsoon activity looks to affect southern Colorado tomorrow, bypassing the Boulder area. Thursday will be more of the same but it looks like the monsoonal moisture will push a bit further north. Thursday will most likely be dry, but a couple stray showers or thunderstorms can’t be ruled out. Otherwise, it looks to be a fairly pleasant couple of days!

Wednesday: Partly cloudy in afternoon. High 87, Low 58.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, isolated storms in late afternoon. High 86, Low 60.

TWC: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 89, Low 59.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, isolated storms. High 86, Low 60.

AW: Wednesday: Clouds and sun. High 88, Low 60.
Thursday: Intervals of clouds and sun. High 87, Low 61.

NWS: Wednesday: Sunny then slight chance of thunderstorms. High 89, Low 59.
Thursday: Mostly sunny then slight chance of thunderstorms. High 86, Low 61.

WB: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 86, Low 60.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 85, Low 63.

WN: Wednesday: Partly cloudy with isolated storms. High 89, Low 59.
Thursday: Partly cloudy withisolated storms. High 86, Low 61.

FIO: Wednesday: Clear throughout the day. High 93, Low 62.
Thursday: Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 89, Low 64.

Some thunderstorms are rolling off the Rockies down into Colorado Springs and Pueblo, but are avoiding the Boulder area tonight. This will probably be the theme for the next couple of days.

Many bullets dodged

Tulsa was the forecast we monitored over the weekend, and it was in a white knuckled tussle with thunderstorms. No storms actually hit the airport, but on Saturday, thunderstorms were reported in the vicinity. I didn’t have the heart to mark anyone wrong, for not having precipitation, nor for having thunderstorms in the forecast, because everyone was right. Therefore, it came down to temperatures. Without any activity on Sunday, temperatures spiked again in the low 90s. Only one outlet went that warm, and Forecast.io was able to claim victory as a result
Actuals: Saturday – Thunderstorms in the vicinity, High 93, Low 76
Sunday – High 92, Low 70

Grade: C-D

Perfect August weather

We took a look at the coming weather for Ann Arbor late last week, and it really worked out great for residents of southern Michigan (so too for meteorologists if I’m being honest.) Temperatures were manageable, especially on Friday after a weak cold front sneaked through Thursday night. There was a little bit of precipitation with the passage of the cold front, and temperatures went from the mid to low 80s for highs, while lows dipped to the low 60s. The best news was that meteorologists essentially nailed the forecast. The National Weather Service, who won the day, missed only by 1 degree of error.
Actuals: Thursday .10 inches of rain, High 85, Low 60
Friday – High 82, Low 64

Grade: A=C

Weather Wayback… Aiming to impress

Back in Mid-November last year, Anthony remarked upon his knowing someone that lived in our forecast city, Wheeling, West Virginia. He wanted to make sure that he would give a good impression by nailing this forecast. Close, I guess. It was a challenging forecast all around, so nobody had a perfect forecast, but Forecast.io  came through with the top forecast by going warm on the 16th, but more importantly, staying cool on the 17th. Was Anthony’s friend impressed? Maybe, but this wasn’t necessarily our best shhowing.
Actuals: November 16th – Trace of rain, High 47, Low 36
November 17th, High 44, Low 35

Grade: B-D

Tulsa, Oklahoma

I think the thing most people think about when they hear “Oklahoma” and “weather” is tornadoes. Sure, Oklahoma gets a lot of twisters, but they also endure freezing rain like I can barely believe in the winter. In the summer, though it’s all about the heat.

At 953AM, CT, it was already 85 degrees under the sun in Tulsa. Dew points were in the low 70s across the region, but mostly cloudy skies were providing temporary shade. The tail of a cold front associated with low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes was touching of showers and storms even at this hour over north Texas, which will sap the convective energy in Oklahoma. In fact, there is an inversion across Oklahoma with subsiding post frontal air trapping all manner of smoke and haze in the Tulsa area.
A sharply angled trough will become cutoff and orphan an area of circulation over the southern Rockies through the weekend. This will generate a a bit more southeasterly flow across the southern Plains. This sounds like bad news, but actually, it will pump more moisture into the region, destabilizing the region. Storms will be isolated Saturday, but by Sunday afternoon, expect the area to be rife with shower and thunderstorm activity.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 72
Sunday – Scattered showers and storms around, with some isolated showers, High 88, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow =- Partly cloudy High 91, Low 72
Sunday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon. High 88, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups High 92, Low 71
Sunday – Cloudy, a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 87, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 71
Sunday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 87, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 90, Low 71
Sunday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 83, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms High 92, Low 71
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 86, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 95, Low 71
Sunday – Light rain in the evening.High 91, Low 71

A look at the satellite shows some activity across Texas. This is what we will expect in the next few days for eastern Oklahoma as well.

Surpassing expectations

A couple of rainy days came and went in the Akron area during the middle of the week. They were the generic kind, not the kind that make news headlines because of their persistence or severity. Just your average, regular old thunderstorms. If there was anything noteworthy, particularly among the meteorology crowd, it was that temperatures still nudged up close to 90 on Tuesday, and were above the forecast highs on Wednesday as well.  Accuweather claimed the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Tuesday – .17″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 88, Low 70
Wednesday – .01″ of rain, High 86, Low 71

Grade: B-C

Ann Arbor, Michigan

Just a couple of days after our forecast for Akron, we are moving jut to the northeast. Will the forecast be terribly different, or are we headed for a similar day in the home city of the University of Michigan?

At 1051AM, ET, Ann Arbor was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Lower cloud decks were being seen across lower Michigan, A weak upper level trough is moving swiftly out of he Great Lakes, and a surface trough over the Eastern Lakes. This surface feature is producing the dreary skies in Michigan, but thanks to the wavelength of the upper trough, it will shift quickly away from the area and Ann Arbor will be in the sun by late evening.

A part of this upper level trough is producing a more organized area of low pressure in eastern Hudson Bay, which is trailing a cold front into Lake Superior. This boundary will mean a return of rain and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. This boundary will be the last gasp, however, with high pressure inserting itself into the area, providing a nice day on Friday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, scattered storms in the afternoon, High 85, Low 59
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies during the morning hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 85, Low 60
Friday – A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 83, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Times of sun and clouds, a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 85, Low 59
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sun; humid High 82, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 61
Friday – Partly sunny High 82, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 84, Low 61
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 85, Low 61
Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 83, Low 64

FIO Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening.High 82, Low 59
Friday Partly cloudy starting in the morning.High 79, Low 61:

Check out the satellite below. Sure, there are a few clouds to concern ourselves with today in Ann Arbor, but the real story during the forecast period will be that splotch over Lake Superior.

Weather Wayback… The end of Hurricane season

Here we sit, approaching the busiest time of year in the Atlantic hurricane season, and we are going to turn back to look at the end of last year’s season on the Atlantic Coast of Florida.  Palm Bay in mid-November was at the tail end of what had been a tortuous Atlantic Season, but they were enjoying extremely pleasant weather, with only a few scattered showers and storms thanks to sea breezes. Not only was the hurricane threat nearly gone, but the weather was downright comfortable, probably for the first time in months on the Florida Peninsula. The top forecaster was Forecast,io.
Actuals: November 14th, .01 inches of rain, High 82, Low 71
November 15th, High 81, Low 69

Grade: C