Norwich, Connecticut

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Off to New England as we reach he dog days of summer. I suspect that many residents in the Norwich area would happily be on their way to Martha’s Vineyard or otherwise on vacation this time of year.

At 852PM, ET, Norwich was seeing a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. The temperatures over Long Island and near the coast in Connecticut were a shade lower as the sun had less time to shine. Left over mid level moisture along the coast has continued to mean clouds from Long Island southward, and with high pressure parked over the Atlantic will keep it in place for a while.
The next feature to keep an eye on is a standing trough in the Great Lakes. While the cold front won’t be moving eastward in any kind of hurry, the little progression there is will draw some of that lingering coastal moisture further north. The mere act of inducing some motion within this moist air mass will lead to some general showers and storms that will eventually reach eastern Connecticut by Thursday evening.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 61
Thursday – Late showers and storms, otherwise mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 59
Thursday – AM Showers, High 88, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83, Low 57
Thursday – Uncomfortably humid with intervals of clouds and sun; an afternoon thunderstorm in parts of the area High 86. Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny (late rain), High 84, Low 58
Thursday – A chance of showers before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 87, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. (late rain) High 85, Low 64
Thursday – Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 87, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 87, Low 68

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 59
Thursday – Light rain showers, High 87, Low 70

There isn’t enough there, in my opinion, to worry about showers tomorrow. It’s barely concerning on Thursday. Satellite shows those clouds along the Mid-Atantic coast.

Fresno, California

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Our forecast takes us to the piping hot Central Valley in California. Right out of the frying pan and into the fire, as they say.

At 653PM, PT, Fresno was reporting a temperature of 102, and smokey skies. The Raleigh Fire is located northeast of town, and smoke is observed at the airport, though the fire is nearly 100% contained.
There is an upper level trough moving through the Pacific Northwest, with a ridge moving into the area to start the work week. With flow becoming less organized, laminar upper level winds will be a bit stronger and more westerly. This would typically mean a bit of relief with more Pacific air and the chance for upper level flow, but lighter winds will mitigate any advantages.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 109, Low 73
Monday – Fair skies, hot, High 110, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 107, Low 71
Monday – Sunny, High 108, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Sweltering heat with blazing sunshine; heat will be dangerous, minimize outdoor activity High 108, Low 71
Monday – Blazing sunshine with the temperature approaching the record of 110 set in 1946; heat will be dangerous, minimize outdoor activity High 109, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot,  High 105, Low 71
Monday – Sunny and hot, high 105, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 103, Low 76
Monday – Sunny. High 106, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 105, Low 71
Monday – Sunny, High 105, Low 71

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 106, Low 73
Monday – Sunny, High 106, Low 72

This is the rare time where nearly everyone was forecasting below model guidance for several of the models. If some of those runs are right, Fresno will easily surpass that 110 record. Here is a map of Fresno with the location of the Raleigh Fire.

Saginaw, Michigan

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It seems as though life is going to get a bit more interesting in Michigan over the next 24 hours. Let’s see just how interesting it gets in Saginaw.

At 1215AM, ET, Saginaw was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 73 degrees. The dew point was 68, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see some fog overnight. While the SPC has hinted at thunderstorms, potentially strong, all day, the most recent model guidance has started to clarify two distinct batches of storms developing, and one is being seen over the Upper Peninsula, while the other is having a tougher time launching in eastern Wisconsin. A slow moving warm front moving through the area will provide the path for whatever develops to shift to the southeast. With the Wisconsin batch lagging behind, the UP area may take advantage, potentially leading to a higher threat for overnight or early morning severe weather.
While the warm front is the main show, the occluded low pressure center will ensure a threat for a few scattered showers into the afternoon as well. Expect a hot beginning to the work week in Saginaw, even while dodging rain drops. The low pressure center will move towards New England, leaving high pressure to build back in over Michigan on Tuesday with cooler conditions.
Tomorrow – Early morning storms, then mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Potential for severe thunderstorms High 84, Low 66
Tuesday – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late High 77, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Showers and a heavier thunderstorm in the morning; variable clouds, breezy, humid; thunderstorms can bring flooding downpours, hail and damaging wind gusts High 84, Low 68
Tuesday – Variable cloudiness, breezy and humid with widely separated thunderstorms High 80, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Partly sunny (early rain) High 79, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 83, Low 71
Tuesday – Partly cloudy High 81, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 79, Low 67

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 82, Low 67
Tuesday – Rain showers, High 76, Low 66

It’s looking more and more like the heavy storms are going to crop up and pass east of Saginaw. I imagine that will help temperatures sneak up fairly high. Nice work by us avoiding the heat dome!

St. Joseph, Missouri

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Kansas City has definitely been in the news lately, what with the World Cup playing several matches at Arrowhead Stadium. That’s but a couple hundred miles down river from St. Joseph! As life gets back to normal for western Missouri, what does the weather hold?

At 153AM, CT, St. Joseph was reporting a temperature of 76 with clear skies. Dew points were in the mid 70s as well, remnants of a humid day that may lead to some fog in valleys as dawn approaches. The prevailing flow is not only a ridge, but one that skirts the Canadian border, allowing the warm and moist air of the Gulf to continue wafting into the center of the country.
There is a bit of a perturbation gently moving along the northern Great Lakes. There is a weak boundary toughing some storms off in southern Minnesota. The southward propogation of this system is expected to be slow, but eventually reach Missouri by mid-Sunday, but which point the airmass will be fully ready to pop. Some isolated pre-boundary air mass storms are possible in the afternoon on Sunday, with the cold front moving through the afternoon, brining only a modest change.
Tomorrow (Today?) – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 73
Sunday – Increasing humidity, chance of isolated showers and storms. Breezy, High 95, Low 74

TWS: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 92, Low 73
Sunday – Mostly sunny skies. Hot. High 92, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with plenty of sunshine High 91, Low 73
Sunday – Mostly sunny and humid High 92, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny, High 93, Low 74
Sunday – Sunny, High 93, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 88, Low 77
Sunday – Sunny High 89, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 93, Low 74
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 93, Low 73

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers High 92, Low 73
Sunday – Light rain showers High 92, Low 72

Apologies for the weird timing of this post. On vacation and I have adjusted to the time zone and the rest of the group has not. St. Joseph is fortunate, in that they can avoid the smoke from the Minnesota/Canada border.

Bremerton, Washington

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are going to the top left corner of your map of the United States tonight. I assume your map is like mine, and has Alaska with Hawai’i in their own insets at the bottom of the page.

At 1156AM, PT, Bremerton was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with overcast skies. Temperatures were kept in check by the cloudy skies. A strong jet curled around Vancouver Island into the Pacific Northwest, leading to regionwide instability. As the jet curls inland, steady bands of rain will continue across the Olympic Peninsula and Puget Sound, particularly through tomorrow.
Surface organization is always murky in the Pacific Northwest, so the best indicator of the future precipitation in the region will be the upper level flow. As the jet moves inland, it will weekend rather than successfully advect eastward. Whatever surface circulation lingers will move a bit inland by Sunday, with light shower activity continuing to spin back into the terrain of the Cascades and Olympic Mountains, resulting in ongoing fog and clouds, with intermittent drizzle for Bremerton.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers through the day, High 67, Low 51
Sunday – Isolated showers, with overcast skies and haze, High 66, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. High 68, Low 50
Sunday – Overcast. High 69, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers High 67, Low 51
Sunday – Mostly cloudy High 69, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly between noon and 4pm. Partly sunny, High 64, Low 51
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A chance of rain in the morning then a slight chance of rain late in the morning. A chance of rain in the afternoon High 66, Low 51
Sunday – Mostly cloudy. High 67, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 65, Low 51
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 67, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain Showers, High 66, Low 47
Sunday – Light rain showers, High 67, Low 47

This will be interesting, as Bremerton doesn’t do a great job of reporting rain in their observations. Let’s see how it all plays out! Check this out: I started writing this last night and grabbed a still of the radar then. Not much changed!

Minneapolis, Minnesota

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Minneapolis is a near and dear to my heart. Most of my life, I’ve lived within the town’s orbit, and it’s always a fun occasion to be able to assemble a forecast for the Mill City.

At 415PM, Minneapolis was reporting heavy thunderstorms and a temperature of 63 degrees. A batch of showers and storms has followed a warm front through the day from North Dakota, and is now battering the Twin Cities with heavy rain and some convection. West of this batch of storm activity, more storms were developing underneath the warm front, and ahead of a cold front that was chasing the warm front. These storms have a history of being severe, however given the air modification currently being performed by the complex moving through, they won’t be severe, if they can even hold together, when they reach Minneapolis.
The low pressure moving in the Upper Midwest is backed by a bit of upper level support, however the most kinetic action is related to heat and lee troughing in the High Plains. This will cause the system to dawdle as it moves towards Lake Superior, and redirected moisture towards low pressure in the Plains will sap precipitation potential as the week wears on. Don’t be surprised by a mostly cloudy week, even with rain generally north and east from town.
Tomorrow – Rain ending before sunrise, mostly cloudy, a bit breezy, High 77, Low 60
Thursday – Partly to mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 75, Low 61
Thursday – Cloudy. High 78, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Variable clouds with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 77, Low 60
Thursday – Considerable cloudiness High 75, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 1pm and 3pm. Partly sunny, High 76, Low 60
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 77, Low 60
Thursday – Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 76, Low 60
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 55

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 74, Low 60
Thursday – Overcast, High 74, Low 56

A stormy night that is expected to continue for a while. It’s pretty messy on radar this evening in Minneapolis!

Longview, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The middle of the week has been rife with severe weather. There is more in the mid-Atlantic, but things are finally beginning to look a bit more relaxed. How relaxed in east Texas?

At 1153AM, CT, Longview was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 73. The lingering boundary that has been a significant weather maker in the southeast this week now lay from Jacksonville, Florida to a secondary surface feature southeast of Texarkana. A band of showers and storms has slid southeast of Longview, but a batch of showers continues near Dallas, and a dry afternoon is unlikely.
There is a low level perturbation seated over southern Missouri that is going to continue to enhance shower and storm activity through the day tomorrow. The more significant jet streak is shifting to the east, with a weak ridge snuffing out the weak low in the south central US. Further bringing about some stability to east Texas is a surface system developing in the Front Range late Saturday, shifting into central Plains on Sunday. This will lead to rising heat and humidity, but clearer conditions, with only a couple of pop up thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 83, Low 73
Sunday – Clearing and warmer with isolated showers, High 90, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Cloudy skies late. High 83, Low 72
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy. High 88, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83, Low 73
Sunday – Humid with sunshine and some clouds; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 90, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 7am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny High 90, Low 74
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 83, Low 75
Sunday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy High 89, Low 74

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm High 83, Low 75
Sunday – Thunderstorm High 90, Low 75

Undersold is that with the low pressure developing to the north, it will also be fairly breezy in Longview on Sunday. Just hot wind. Here’s the diminishing storm activity, depicted on radar!

South Bend, Indiana

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As a proud grad of Purdue University, I will very begrudgingly issue this forecast. Buckle up, it could be a fun one.

At 1003PM, ET, South Bend was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A band of showers and storms had moved into the eastern part of the state, leaving a humid night for northern Indiana. This should leave the area primed for more sultry conditions tomorrow.
There won’t be a triggering mechanism, save for the latent heat and humidity for tomorrow, but that could be enough for a few stray storms in the afternoon, none of which are likely to be severe. Another band of storms will arrive overnight with a perturbation associated with an area of low pressure moving east through the Canadian Prairies. This complex will hit around midnight and last into the wee hours. The next threat of storms is going to be better organized, and more closely tied to a cold front. This will arrive 24 hours after the first batch, close to midnight Thursday into Friday.
Tomorrow – Afternoon showers and storms, with more action overnight, High 92, Low 73
Thursday – Predawn showers, then storms late, High 89, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 93, Low 72
Thursday – Mostly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. Some of the storms may become severe. Damaging winds, large hail and possibly a tornado with some storms. High 88, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow -Partly sunny, hot and humid; breezy in the afternoon High 90, Low 71
Thursday – Remaining very warm and humid with periods of clouds and sunshine; severe weather expected at night; be alert and have a way to receive warnings High 89. Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of thunderstorms after 4pm. Partly sunny and hot, High 91, Low 68
Thursday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny and hot, High 90, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91, Low 76
Thursday – Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 86, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms, High 90, Low 70
Thursday – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms, High 90, Low 72

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers High 91, Low 69
Thursday – Thunderstorm High 91, Low 71

You can see a band of storms drifting into Ohio. Get used to looking at this, South Bend.

Houston, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I hope everyone is planning a wonderful time outside for Memorial Day Weekend. It’s the beginning of the warmth up north, and probably the last time it won’t be too hot down south.

At 853PM, CT, Houston was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees. Moisture in the atmosphere was high, after rain this afternoon. There will likely be some fog and low clouds overnight. The bulk of the rainfall has shifted towards the Mississippi Delta, however a weak upper level trough remains over east Texas, which means that there won’t be any real clearing tomorrow.
With the trough hanging out in eastern Texas will continue to generate cyclonic flow in the western Gulf. Showers with some embedded thunderstorms will be more frequent and wider in coverage over Louisiana, on the east side of the circulation, but lingering moisture and scattered showers will remain a possibility throughout the remainder of the holiday weekend, with precipitation more likely Sunday than Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers and fog early, High 85, Low 69
Memorial Day – Partly cloudy with AM fog and afternoon showers, High 88, low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 88, Low 68
Memorial Day – Partly cloudy skies High 89, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; watch for flash flooding High 83, Low 71
Memorial Day – Variable cloudiness with a thunderstorm High 88, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Partly sunny High 82, Low 70
Memorial Day – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon High 83, Low 69
Memorial Day – Mostly sunny. High 87, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 82, Low 70
Memorial Day – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storm, High 85, Low 71

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 84, Low 68
Memorial Day – Sunny, High 85, low 71

There is close correlation between precipitation and temperature forecasts the next couple of days. There will be some wild differences in our verification scores! Precipitation has moved all the way over the Louisiana.

Jacksonville, Florida

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The forecast wheel spun and took us back to the southeast. We are off to Duval County tonight.

At 856PM, ET, Jacksonville was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees and mostly cloudy skies. Isolated storms have emerged over the center of the state, but they were dying with darkness. There is a bit of a jet streak over the Northern Gulf that is presently leading to some of the activity, however there is broad trade activity developing in the region.
Deep low pressure in the Plains is also contributing to moisture transport across the Florida Peninsula. The region will be cloudy at the very least tomorrow, with a considerable threat for a pop up shower or storm, particularly in the afternoon. As the surface pressure reorganizes in the southern US on Monday, activity will diminish in the Jacksonville area.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 87, Low 64
Monday – Sunny, High 86, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 87, Low 74
Monday – Sun and a few passing clouds High 86, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; a thundershower in spots in the morning followed by a couple of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 87, Low 73
Monday – Times of clouds and sun High 87, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 73
Monday – Mostly sunny High 85, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 85, Low 76
Monday – Sunny. High 82, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 87, Low 73
Monday – Mostly Sunny, High 86, Low 71

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm High 86, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy High 85, Low 66

Varying opinions on storms tomorrow. Makes sense, I think they will be isolated. But alas, it’s Florida. It storms. Such as it is tonight.