Category Archives: Forecast

San Diego, California

It’s a hot one out west. Fortunately, San Diego is right up on the coast where perhaps it will be a little bit cooler.

At 826PM, PT, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A cool wind off the south Pacific was bringing in a shallow marine layer that was als being seen as far north as Carlsbad. It was in stark contrast to areas inland, which were still as warm as 110 degrees near the Salton Sea.
High pressure in the southern Rockies is the one of the typical features that contribute to suffocating southwestern heat waves, and there is a really good ridge out there right now. Ridging jet flow and a broad, stalled trough in the eastern US, as well as Tropical Storm Cindy will slow down any breakdown of the ridge for the foreseeable future.
Tomorrow – Marine layer clouds early, late, then sunny, High 79, Low 64
Thursday – Early clouds and fog, High 76, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon High 78, Low 65
Thursday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 72, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds and fog giving way to some sun High 78, Low 66
Thursday – Low clouds and fog giving way to some sun High 72, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 79, Low 63
Thursday – Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 75, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, Becoming mostly sunny. Patchy dense fog in the morning, High 82, Low 65
Thursday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning, High 77, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 63
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 80, Low 67
Thursday – Partly cloudy until afternoon.High 78, Low 66

So not too bad on the coast, mostly because of the marine layer, which you can see on the satellite below.

Lower Michigan, upper 80s

We looked at Jackson, Michigan way back last week, in the midst of their early June heat wave. Temperatures weren’t cooling off, at least not through the beginning of the week last week, as they continued to reach the upper 80s to low 90s, all as a warm front remained parked to the northwest, unwilling to move on so relief would find its way in. Forecasters generally knew how stubborn this boundary would be, and the results were pretty good. They were the best for WeatherNation, who had the victory.
Actuals: Sunday – High 89, Low 69
Monday – High 90, Low 68

Panama City, Florida

I did some research to assuage my curiousity. Indeed, the Florida version of Panama City was named after the one in Panama, because it was founded during the height of Panama Canal Fever,which is actually sounds like an infectious disease, seeing it in print. will the weather seem Central American as well?

AT 353PM, ET, Panama City was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with rain showers. There were isolated thunderstorms literring the interior of the eastern Gulf region, and along the coast, the thunderstorms have ended and given way to more general rain showers. Flow from the southwest towards a weak area of low pressure in the northeast, bringing in the moisture that was enveloping the region.
While the pattern continues to churn to the northeast of the Panama City area, it will be left relatively unchanged in the Florida Panhandle. A moisture rich southwesterly flow will continue to feed ever organizing and reorganizing areas of low pressure in eastern Canada, which means that more isolated showers with some embedded thunder will remain possible, especially in the afternoons, for the next few days.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High 89, Low 72
Saturday – Less active, High 89, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Cloudy skies late High 85, Low 73
Saturday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Partly cloudy skies late. High 84. Low 75

AW: More clouds than sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 84, Low 74
Saturday -A thunderstorm in spots in the morning followed by a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 84, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 75
Saturday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 76
Saturday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 84, Low 75
Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 84, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until evening. High 83, Low 77
Saturday – Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 84, Low 78

Here is a look at the radar from this afternoon, with just a swath of rain moving into the Panama City area.

Everyone wins!

To end the week, the weather in New Orleans was immaculate: not a cloud to be seen, while temperatures only climbed to the mid 80s, which is very comfortable for this time of year down in the Bayous. So the residents of New Orleans were big winners, but so were the forecasters. There was a 5 way tie atop the leaderboard, leaving only the NWS and FIO out of the spoils. A cool morning low on Friday was a big enough hiccup that despite the tranquility, this tie wasn’t because everyone had an excellent showing.
Actuals: Thursday – High 84, Low 73
Friday – High 84, Low 64

Grade: C

Weather Wayback… A flurry of activity

It seems crazy to think that it was just three months ago that we were talking about snow in our forecasts, but that was just the case on March 13th in Terre Haute, Indiana. There was just a flurry in Terre Haute, but that’s still pretty late in the year, especially in southern Indiana. Most of our outlets weren’t fooled back when we issued the forecast, however, with 6/7 calling for the flurries. It was a result of a massive system moving up the coast, prepared to bring some significant weather to the Mid-Atlantic coast, and even on the periphery, nearly everyone was on point. If I recall, the forecast was a little overwrought in the big cities, but at least there was success in Terre Haute. WeatherNation won this March forecast, and did so with panache.
Actuals: March 13th – Trace of snow, High 33, Low 21
March 14th – High 34, Low 18

Grade: A-C

Jackson, Michigan

This weekend has brought on the first real heat wave of the winter, which is a little earlier than we usually see this kind of heat. How long will it last?

At 156AM, ET, Jackson was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. The warm temperatures even at this late hour are a result of brisk southerly flow generated by a distended area of low pressure in the Dakotas. Temperatures tomorrow will respond in kind, with 90s highly likely.
The flow is generally from the southwest with this storm, so the airmass in lower Michigan remains relatively dry. With little by way of instability, it will take a trigger to touch off thunderstorms in Michigan, despite the heat. A warm front will be the primary focus for storms, with a derecho tearing through Minnesota and Wisconsin, headed towards northern Michigan tomorrow. A cold front will begin to drift south on Monday, but there will be no upper level support for cooler air to drive southward. Even more significantly for the threat of rain, disturbed weather in the eastern Gulf will mean that the southerly flow into the front will not be laden with moisture. Hot, dry weather is going to continue for at least the next two days.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, hot, High  87, Low 68
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 91, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 88, Low 66
Monday – Generally sunny. Near record high temperatures. High 92, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and very warm High 89, Low 66
Monday – Sunny, breezy and hot with the temperature approaching the record of 95 set in 1933 High 93, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 90, Low 66
Monday – Sunny and hot, High 92, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 67
Monday – Sunny, High 92, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, Higj 90, Low 70
Monday – Mostly sunny High 91. Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 91, Low 69
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 92, Low 69

So, that heat is going to linger for a while. Satellite is showing a lot of sun in the center of the country. Well, moon, at this time of night. That cluster of storms in South Dakota will be a doozy later, but southern Michigan is going to be just fine.

When Perfection Finishes Second

Outside of maaaaybe a shot of a rain shower in Philly, the weather seemed to be pretty good for midweek. That slight chance of a shower though was enough to alter the standings. Even though the NWS had a PERFECT temperature forecast (hooray!), their chances of showers on both days was enough to bring them down to 2nd place, as WN won with their dry forecast.

Wednesday: High 67, Low 54.
Thursday: High 72, Low 54.
Forecast Grade: A

Workplace productivity on the rise

The worst thing about summer is that it’s really hard to stay at the office, working. The sun is out, the kids are out of school and your entire body screams for the outdoors. I am happy to report that this week in New Haven, that was not the case! It was cool and cloudy as a dual low passed off the coast and through New England. The good news was, it wasn’t as rainy as forecasts had envisioned, but it was just as miserable. Great days to be at work. Your boss savored it, I’m sure.
Tuesday – .02 inches in rain, High 55, Low 51
Wednedsay – High 69, Low 50

Grade: B-C

New Orleans, Louisiana

The Big Easy… Let’s go find out if the weather will be easy to forecast. – Most obvious intro pun possible.

At 953PM, CT, New Orleans was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. After a rough weekend, a boundary has swept through the area, providing New Orleans with northerly flow, importing drier, stable air to the city. High pressure in the center of the country is inhibiting convective development across the center of the country.
The trough that brought the boundary through the region is shortwaved, but the high pressure in place behind it is broad and strong. There might be a few isolated showers or storms floating around the south end of the high pressure feature, but that will mean only some thunder around Corpus Christi. The next real threat for significant weather in the Big Easy will be with a few isolated storms over the weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 71
Friday – Sun High 85, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 85, Low 69
Friday – Sunshine – High 85, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine High 85, Low 70
Friday – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant High 85, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 70
Friday – Sunny, High 85, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 69
Friday – Sunny, High 83, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 70
Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 87, Low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 85, Low 73

This is incredible weather for New Orleans  for this time of year. Not too hot and dry.

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

We head off to the City of Brotherly Love today, and let’s see if the weather is just as lovely!

At 1154pm EDT, the temperature in Philadelphia, PA was 57 degrees under overcast skies. There’s an area of high pressure at the surface found over the Great Lakes that’s slowly pushing its way eastward. However, there’s a mid-level disturbance that continues to linger over Southern New England and is dropping southward throughout Wednesday. While some isolated showers are found in the area, they’re dropping southward currently and not expected to affect the city. There could be some morning to midday showers tomorrow over the mountains off to the west while overcast skies continue to linger over Philly. The system should clear out some for Thursday, leading to warmer temperatures, but mostly cloudy skies are still in the cards. It’ll be a few days until a decent system is expected to bring showers to the region, so looks like an enjoyable weekend is on the horizon!

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 69, Low 54.
Thursday: Warmer, remaining mostly cloudy. High 75, Low 55.

TWC: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, few morning showers. High 68, Low 53.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 75, Low 53.

AW: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, a shower; cool. High 63, Low 54.
Thursday: Clouds giving way to sun. High 69, Low 52.

NWS: Wednesday: Isolated early morning showers, mostly cloudy. High 67, Low 54.
Thursday: Slight chance of showers. High 72, Low 54.

WB: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 65, Low 52.
Thursday: Partly sunny. High 69, Low 53.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 66, Low 54.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 72, Low 54.

FIO: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy until night. High 71, Low 54.
Thursday: Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until night. High 76, Low 52.

There’s a few light showers off to the southwest and dwindling as we head through the overnight hours. More dry weather is in store for the area today!