Category Archives: Forecast

Everyone is on the same page

If you follow along with our forecasts closely, you likely noted that the forecasts in Anderson, South Carolina were very tightly bunched. This is because without synoptic scale features, or the benefit of variable cloud cover, everyone rightfully relied closely on model guidance, which is highly reliable in these situations. The Weather Channel got a very, very slight victory, and nearly everyone else tied just one degree behind them.
Actuals: Monday – High 84, Low 63
Tuesday – High 72, Low 63

Grade: B

Salt Lake City, Utah

Today we head off to Salt Lake City. I’ve been there once, as a kid, during the summer. Maybe I’d appreciate it more these days. Let’s take a look at how Salt Lake will welcome in Fall, which starts on Friday at 402pm EDT!

At 1015pm MDT, the temperature at Salt Lake City, UT was 64 degrees under overcast skies. There’s a cold front working its’ way throughout the Western US currently, from the Western Daktoas down into the Intermountain West and even down into the Southern CA. Throughout the day Thursday, this cold front is going to shift through northern Utah, bringing some shower activity with it. Cooler temperatures are expected to move through with it as well, which is why a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for higher elevations in the region. As far as the city proper goes, don’t worry, it’ll just be rain. Most of the activity will shift north and east out of the area during the day Friday, but not before a few light showers linger in the area, mainly during the early morning hours. Temperatures will be pretty chilly the next couple of mornings, so be sure to grab that jacket. Fall is here!

Thursday: Showers late in the day. High 61, Low 46.
Friday: Few early morning showers possible, cooler. High 57, Low 41.

TWC: Thursday: Mostly cloudy, isolated showers. High 57, Low 47.
Friday: Showers expected. High 55, Low 40.

AW: Thursday: Cooler with a passing shower. High 57, Low 46.
Friday: Mainly cloudy, showers around. High 55, Low 42.

NWS: Thursday: Rain likely. High 61, Low 44.
Friday: Chance of showers. High 55, Low 40.

WB: Thursday: Chance of rain. High 56, Low 44.
Friday: Chance of rain showers. High 51, Low 42.

WN: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain. High 61, Low 44.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 55, Low 40.

FIO: Thursday: Rain in the morning and evening. High 62, Low 46.
Friday: Light rain until afternoon. High 53, Low 43.

Here we see Salt Lake City on the leading edge of a frontal boundary starting to slide through the Western US. Better get those umbrellas!

Jose brings a chill

Warm weather had arrived in New England last weekend as a warm front lifted north through Canada. It hit the mid 80s on Sunday, which is unusual , as you might guess, for this time of year in Manchester, New Hampshire, but it was a hurricane that nicked the temperature. Jose redirected a cooler easterly flow off the north Atlantic, and high temperatures dropped by 12 degrees on Monday, which was fine, because it was the work week. There was no rain, which prevented from earning the victory, instead, giving it to Accuweather.
Actuals: Sunday – High 84, Low 63
Monday – High 72, Low 63

Grade: B-C

Prescott, Arizona

Today we head off to the Desert Southwest, seems to be the only place that’s been quiet these last few days. Will they continue to be so or is a pattern shift in the cards for them?

At 915pm MST, the temperature at Prescott, AZ was 57 degrees under fair skies. A fairly quiet pattern continues over AZ on Monday as a large front/upper trough pushes through the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies and pushes its way down over the Great Basin by early Tuesday. That’s as far south as it’s going to make it, however, as it stalls out over Southern NV/Utah. Central Arizona will remain fairly quiet and warm throughout the next couple of days, with perhaps a hint of briskness in the air during the morning.

Monday: Sunny. High 80, Low 50.
Tuesday: Continued sunny. High 81, Low 51.

TWC: Monday: Sunny. High 78, Low 52.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 77, Low 53.

AW: Monday: Sunny and pleasant. High 82, Low 48.
Tuesday: Plenty of sun. High 81, Low 49.

NWS: Monday: Sunny. High 78, Low 47.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 77, Low 48.

WB: Monday: Sunny. High 78, Low 49.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 76, Low 49.

WN: Monday: Sunny. High 79, Low 46.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 79, Low 46.

FIO: Monday: Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 53.
Tuesday: Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 54.

Here we see, well, pretty much nothing. It’s quiet. Pretty neat to see the Grand Canyon though!

Anderson, South Carolina

We are headed to the southeast for today’s forecast. It’s interesting to think that we are moving further away from a looming tropical system by headed to the Carolinas.

At 756PM, ET, Anderson was reporting a temperature of 76 degrees with fair skies. Most of the region, save for a few isolated clouds around Toccoa, was enjoying a pleasant evening as well. Hurricane Jose was spinning in the western Atlantic, and drawing a good deal of the moisture in the region towards it, leaving the Eastern Time Zone in good shape.
Jet flow was ridging across much of eastern North America into the north Atlantic, with a trough in eastern Canada dampening through time, allowing any inclement weather to dissipate before it arrives at the Appalachians. All told, expect a pleasant beginning to the week in Upstate South Carolina.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny, High 86, Low 64

TWC: Monday – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds.  High 86, Low 63
Tuesday – Sunny skies High 86, Low 64

AW: Mostly sunny and humid High 86, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and warm High 87, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny High 85, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 86, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 66
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 85, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 64
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 86, low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 84, Low 68
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 67

Pretty uniform across the board, as they often are when high pressure is on the way. Satellite shows Jose lurking off the coast.

Manchester, New Hampshire

We’re off to New England this afternoon, as they wait to see what Jose, out in the western Atlantic has in store.

At 153PM, Manchester was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with mostly sunny skies. An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes was pulling onshore fog and low clouds that was keeping temperatures on the coast up to 10 degrees cooler.
New England is beneath a ridge, however at the time, the atmosphere is responding to the trough over the Great Lakes, with warm, moist air being drawn into the region. Hurricane Jose, moving past the Bahamas and between Bermuda and the Outer Banks will disrupt flow into the Canadian low as it shifts into Hudson Bay, which will allow Manchester to dry out and enjoy a couple of nice days before any potential impact from Jose. An east wind, while drier at the surface, will also be cooler and cloudier than the flow presently seen.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 63
Monday – Mostly cloudy with a cooling east wind High 76, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 82, Low 59
Monday – Overcast. High 73, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning; otherwise, partly sunny High 83, Low 60
Monday – Not as warm with periods of sun and clouds High 73, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 80, Low 60
Monday – Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy,  High 71, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny, High 80, Low 60
Monday – Mostly cloudy, patchy fog in the morning. High 71, Low 60

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, HIgh 79, Low 59
Monday – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 72, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until afternoon. High 79, Low 62
Monday – Light rain starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 72, Low 62

Here is a look at the satellite, showing off those clouds encroaching on the New England coast. Depending on the model of your choice, the middle of next week will be pretty rainy as Jose passes by.

Weather Wayback…. Summer approaches

I don’t know about you, but when I think of Arkansas, especially in the spring and summer, I think a hot, sticky, verdant land, that is as physically beautiful as it is uncomfortable. Well, for a northerner, anyways. In the middle of May, at least in Jonesboro, it wasn’t quite that sultry. It helped that a cold front, beset with a great deal of spring rains, had just swept through the region, dropping a couple of inches of rain late in the week, leaving the weekend of the 13th and 14th much more tolerable. Temperatures were in the 70s and dew points were reasonable, sitting in the low 60s. It was Accuweather that claimed the top forecast, while there was a tight cluster just behind them, way back in mid-May.
Actuals: Saturday – May 13th – High 78, Low 55
Sunday – May 14th, High 80, Low 53

Grade: A-B

Lows Lead Forecasts Astray

The early morning showers dodged the area as expected in the Terre Haute area, and made for a dry couple of days. Low temperatures were a bit tricky, however, and made a couple of forecasts look a bit foolish. Those of us here at VW were fooled less than almost everybody else, as we tied with the Weather Channel for the victory.

Tuesday: High 74, Low 57.
Wednesday: High 68, Low 43.
Forecast Grade: B

Airing out

After a catastrophic week of rain in Houston from Hurricane Harvey, we’ve spent this week wondering how we can recover, and how we can help.  The good news was that Texas has been pretty dry lately. We’ve been keeping special tabs on Austin, which stayed away from some isolated thunderstorms in the area, but it was in the mid 90s both days of the weekend. It was hot, certainly, but as long as it’s not raining, I think Texans can accept that. The National Weather Service had the top forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – High 94, Low 69
Sunday – High 92, Low 70

Grade: A-C