Davenport, Iowa

We’re continuing a recent trend of forecasting in the western Great Lakes with a trip to the Quad Cities.

At 252PM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with a brisk south wind and clear skies, There appeared to be a vorticity maximum near St. Joseph, Missouri, and a whorl of clouds over the center of the United States was bringing a few of the clouds north to eastern Iowa, but the the real threat for deteriorating conditions is further to the southwest, where low pressure is going to continue developing over the next couple of days.
By tomorrow evening, areas near an emerging warm front will start to feature show rain and thunderstorms across southeastern Iowa. The center of low pressure will start to shift northeastward, and what had been convective in nature at the beginning of the day will become cooler and more stratiform rain showers, ultimately giving way to cool cloudy skies in the evening.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, late thunder possible, High 67, Low 47
Thursday – Rain with embedded thunderstorms. Ending late, then cooler, High 58, Low 43(Non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. High 72, Low 45
Thursday – Showers and thunderstorms. High 60, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and warm with a shower in the area High 67, Low 47
Thursday – A thick cloud cover, breezy and mild with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; thunderstorms could bring damaging winds, flash flooding and hail High 63, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, (late rain) High 70, Low 48
Thursday – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. High 63, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 68, Low 51
Thursday – Rain with thunderstorms, High 55, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and scattered storms, High 58, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Drizzle, High 63, Low 45

This forecast was interrupted quite a few times while I tried to put it together. That vort max I mentioned at the beginning actually produced a couple severe storms east of Kansas City. Still not too bad in Davenport tonight, but it will deteriorate through the week. We’ll see at what pace.

Fond du Lac, Wisconsin

It’s been delightful here in Minnesota today, and I can’t imagine it’s been much different over in the Fox Valley.

At 1053PM, CT, Fond du Lac was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures are going to continue cooling off this evening thanks to the clear skies and dew points down in the 30s. A thermal ridge is parked over the middle of the country, so the cool down will be quickly forgotten after sunrise tomorrow.
A very week wave is going to ripple through the region tomorrow. It will take temperatures away from the record highs seen today, and provide a few clouds, but expect a dry day in Fond du Lac. A strong trough is bringing more mountain snow to the northern Rockies will continue to progress and develop rapidly into a strong area of low pressure in the southern High Plains. A warm front will become evident in the mid-Mississippi Valley, but it will not be an issue in Fond du Lac on Wednesday. Moisture coming into the region will lead to some additional clouds for Fond du Lac, but the rain will wait until Thursday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy and cooler, High 60, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 69, Low 43
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies High 62, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and warm; sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon High 68, Low 45
Wednesday – Sun through high clouds and remaining warm High 62, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly sunny,  High 60, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the evening then clearing, High 65, Low 48
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 57, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 46
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 40

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 45
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 37

It’s going to be busy aloft, but not much is actually going to go on in the city of Fond du Lac. Not until Thursday, anyway.

Peoria, Illinois

This part of the country, this time of year, you could really get anything out of a forecast. That is pretty exciting, and also could lead to some very peculiar forecasts.

At 1054PM, CT, Peoria was reporting a temperature of 43 degrees with overcast skies. A brisk northwest wind was filling the wake of some steady rain with clear and chilly air. After a soggy day in central Illinois, the last remaining bits of rain had moved nearly entirely into Indiana as a trough is swinging into the area at the upper levels, riding north of a strong jet propelling heavier storms in the southeastern US.
At the surface, a pair of low pressure centers will gently orbit around each other, slowing their poleward advance. Behind this agglomeration, high pressure is going to emerge in the Plains, and drift eastward, bringing a dry weekend to Peoria. The ridge will also lay over the top of a thermal ridge, which means temperatures, though chilly tonight, will not remain so.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 47, Low 33
Sunday – Sunny, High 53, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 45, Low 34
Sunday – A mainly sunny sky. High 49, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness; breezy in the afternoon; clocks spring ahead 1 hour at night High 47, Low 36
Sunday – Plenty of sunshine High 51, Low 27

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers after 3pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny High 45, Low 36
Sunday – Sunny, High 49, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 45, Low 39
Sunday – Sunny, High 46, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 45, Low 36
Sunday – Sunny, High 48, Low 27

CLI:: Tomorrow – Clear, High 46, Low 34
Sunday – Sunny, High 50, Low 28

I am not sure about the chaser rain forecast that some outlets have tomorrow. I think it will be fine. I don’t often post such a broad radar, but it really gives the scope of the inclement conditions out there this evening, affecting a lot of people.

Huntsville, Alabama

Happy Sunday, thank you for joining us for our second Alabama forecast in a week. I think this might be less interesting than Birmingham a few days ago.

At 953PM, CT, Huntsville was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Dew points mirrored the temperature, and a bit of overcast and fog was settling in over the southern part of the state, likely to encroach on Huntsville overnight as well.
Parallel troughs are leading to deeply occluded surface low pressure, the first headed towards Hudson Bay, and a developing low along the lingering boundary over the central Plains. This feature is leading to the return flow and ambient moisture throughout Alabama. Monday will be a fairly humid da for early March. There will be a threat for a rogue sprinkle, but the real threat for rain is coming early on Tuesday. A vorticity maximum analyzed by most models is seen emerging around New Orleans and headed east through southern Alabama on Tuesday. This should limit the capacity for thunderstorms or particularly heavy rain in Huntsville, though the day is still liable to be fairly dreary.
Tomorrow – Fog early, then mostly cloudy with some isolated showers, High 75, Low 58
Tuesday – Scattered showers and overcast, High 66, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early. Mostly cloudy skies. High 75, Low 59
Tuesday – Showers and thundershowers in the morning, then cloudy with rain likely in the afternoon. High 66, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm with a shower in places High 75, Low 57
Tuesday – Cloudy and not as warm with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 67, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, High 74, Low 59
Tuesday – A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 7am High 69, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 73, Low 59
Tuesday – Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning then showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 67, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 74, Low 59
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 68, Low 59

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 54
Tuesday – Drizzle, High 66, Low 55

I’m impressed by the outlets leaving rain out tomorrow. They could certainly be right, but I was too chicken to leave it fully out. I worry for Clime’s low temperature forecast. Check out the satellite, with fog really starting to slip into the bayous along the coast.

Birmingham, Alabama

Should we try to get kind of crazy today? Let’s try to get two forecasts in in one day!

At 1053AM, CT, Birmingham was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with light rain. The rain was popping up on radar a few miles ahead of more significant weather. Thunderstorms will be moving into Birmingham within the hour, and are presently lined up from north of Warrior to north of Aliceville, and will bring primarily a threat of some gusty winds, rain and thunder.
A healthy cold pool will chase the front out of town, leaving a cool afternoon in northern Alabama, followed by a crisp morning tomorrow. The jet structure is bifurcated right now, so despite a strong ridge to the north, Texas will be a ripe environment for cyclogenesis late this week. A much weaker feature than either the storm that is going to sweep through momentarily, or the strong system preparing to slam the west coast will develop in Texas and slide into Alabama on Friday morning, bringing a few showers and storms to Alabama’s largest city.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and chilly, increasing clouds late, High 52, Low 37
Friday – Scattered showers, cloudy, High 52, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies, slight chance of a rain shower, High 55, Low 36
Friday – Cloudy with periods of rain, high 54, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler High 53, low 36
Friday – Periods of rain and a thunderstorm High 54, low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 54, low 34
Friday – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm High 53, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 55, Low 39
Friday – Showers, a slight chance of a thunderstorm in the morning, then a chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon, High 53, low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy, High 56, Low 35
Friday – Mostly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 53, Low 45

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 59, Low 33
Friday – Rain showers, High 56, Low 45

We see a lot of towns in Alabama, but we don’t often touch on Birmingham. While we are here, we are getting some active weather, though! Radar shows this line of thunderstorms on the door steps.

Birmingham,

Merced, California

We’ve had a few western forecasts of late, but if there was ever a year to spend a lot of forecasting energy in California, it’s this year.

At 653AM, PT, Merced was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with clear skies. It was a chilly start to the day that will ultimately stay fairly clear and cool. Clouds will increase late in the day, however and give rise to a much more interesting day tomorrow. Presently, Merced is between two strands of a strong jet; a broad trough to the south, allowing cooler air to the region, and a wavier northern jet, which is ridged at this time, leading to the clear conditions seen in town today.
Of course, with the waves, this means a trough is on its way shortly. Strong low pressure is tied to this wave, moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, and it is expected to retain some of that strength through the day tomorrow. A cold front will arrive in the afternoon tomorrow, starting at least 36 hours of rain, heavy at times in Merced, and vigorous snow in the mountains, with blizzard warnings already out for the Sierras. It will be quite cool for residents of Merced, and by the time the system gets out of the way on Sunday, a snowflake or two could reach the central Valley and hit Merced on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, with rain in the afternoon, High 63, Low 43
Friday – Rain, heavy at times, High 59, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will give way to occasional showers in the afternoon. High 66, Low 45
Friday – Showers early becoming a steady light rain later in the day. High 59, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then clouds with a shower late in the afternoon; significant snow expected in the mountains; travel will be dangerous, if not impossible east High 65, Low 44
Friday – Cloudy with showers High 62, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely after 4pm. Increasing clouds, High 65, Low 43
Friday – Rain, High 60, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain in the afternoon, High 65, Low 43
Friday – Rain, High 60, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain likely, High 64, Low 45
Friday – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 59, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 64, Low 45
Friday – Light rain showers, High 63, Low 48

It’s going to be regular nasty, not just California nasty with this system. Accuweather kind of expanded the radius of where Merced is, but they aren’t wrong. It might be downright impassable late this week in the Sierras. But look how nice thing look right now!

Ocean City, New Jersey

We keep bouncing from coast to coast, so that means for this forecast, we’re hitting the East Coast.

At 1154PM, ET, Ocean City was seeing temperatures of 46 degrees and overcast skies. Rain was pressing north, and the back end of the line lay from Trenton to Farmingdale, with Long Island and southern New England seeing sustained shower activity. The upper level pattern is complicated. The deepest area of low pressure is in Canada, but a more generalized trough extends from New England to the Carolinas. Overnight, a southern, secondary low will develop in the Smokey Mountains and shift off shore through tomorrow evening, bringing more rain to Ocean City through Friday.
On Saturday, the low will move offshore and start headed to the Maritimes and pull cold air into the mid-Atlantic. There will be some snow in the northern Appalachians, but only patchy clouds and a return of cooler temperatures are expected to start the weekend in Ocean City.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, especially in the early afternoon, High 48, Low 42
Saturday – Clearing, High 44, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning becoming a steady light rain in the afternoon High 51, Low 42
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 44, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Occasional rain; breezy this morning; a brief cold shot to start the weekend High 49, Low 42
Saturday – A shower in spots in the morning; otherwise, breezy with times of clouds and sun High 44, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely. Patchy fog after 8am. Otherwise, cloudy High 50, Low 41
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 42, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Rain likely. Patchy fog. High 48, Low 43
Saturday – Partly sunny, High 44, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain, High 48, Low 44
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 44, Low 32

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, H8gh 50, Low 36
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, High 44, Low 20

Temperatures are going to hover and steadily drop. It’s possible all highs and lows are around midnight, so that stinks for my ability to hammer this out quickly. Here is the radar, with rain pulling away, for now, from Ocean City.

San Diego, California

We’re forecasting in southern California today. It’s been a rainy start to the week, which has become a regular trend this month.

At 751AM, ET, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 51 degrees with overcast skies. The most recent band of rain showers was still leading to reports of light rain in Oceanside, but was starting to peel away from the coastal areas, and becoming an issue primarily for the Inland Empire and Mohave Desert. In the wake of another rain event, there are flood watches throughout the San Diego area.
A smattering of light showers will continue throughout the day, particularly in the higher terrain of southern California, with an end coming before nightfall. Robust onshore flow at the upper levels will likely lead to some cloudy conditions even after the rain ends. A large area of low pressure off the coast of northern California is expected to linger, sending moisture rich ocean air at the low levels as well, which may mean morning fog the next couple of days in San Diego, but there will be a break from the rain until at least next week.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 52
Friday – Morning haze and fog, then clearing, High 70, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 64, low 51
Friday – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 70, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning; otherwise, clouds giving way to some sun; a welcome break from recent heavy rain High 64, Low 49
Friday – Patchy fog in the morning; otherwise, clouds giving way to some sun High 70, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny High 64, Low 49
Friday – Sunny, High 70, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 62, Low 50
Friday – Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly sunny, High 68, Low 48

WN: tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 64, low 51
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 64, Low 48
Friday – Sunny, High 70, Low 45

What a relief for San Diego to start coming out of this soggy week. It might even warm up a bit over the coming days and help San Diego feel more like San Diego again. Not much left on radar, fortunately.

Springfield, Massachusetts

I am sure this is something you all know out in New England, but I learned recently that Springfield is actually serviced by Hartford’s Bradley International Airport. They are so close!

At 1055AM, ET, Springfield was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 31. There is a steady north wind thanks to a vast gyre off the coast of New England, and some scattered clouds north of Massachusetts, but despite these factors working against the town, a pleasant February day is anticipated.
Surface high pressure will continue to remain in place for the next few days, but a jet ridge will start nosing into the area by the end of the week, with a warm front nosing in on Thursday, really bringing about a warming trend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 26
Thursday – Partly cloudy, a bit warmer, High 47, low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 44, Low 25
Thursday – Plentiful sunshine. High 47, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun High 46, Low 24
Thursday – Sunny and mild High 48, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow Sunny, High 43, Low 24
Thursday – Sunny, High 46, Low 25

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 28
Thursday – Sunny, High 45, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 24
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 46, low 25

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 25
Thursday – Sunny, High 50, Low 25

Wow, Clime is going for the gusto, boldly putting Springfield at 50. We’ll see how that goes.

San Luis Obispo, California

This has been a busy January. Not only have we had a lot of forecasts, but they have all been during or very close to significant weather. The real test will be if we can keep it up with a forecast in California.

AT 256PM, PT, San Luis Obispo was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with overcast skies. A weak wave was moving through the Pacific Northwest, and sweeping a mid level cold front as far south as Point Conception. There were scattered showers through out the region, though right now, the heaviest precipitation is diminishing between San Luis Obispo and Bakersfield, with another batch closer to Los Angeles.
The rain is expected to linger in the area, though mostly inland from San Luis Obispo and south towards the LA Basin. The onshore flow behind the boundary will mean that San Luis Obispo will see some overcast through the day Thursday even if they don’t get much more rain. An advancing ridge should bring clearer skies to end the work week.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a few breaks late. Early sprinkles, High 64, Low 50
Friday – Sunny with a bit of morning haze, High 72, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 67, Low 53
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 72, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds giving way to sunshine High 70, Low 55
Friday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 74, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy drizzle before 10am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 65, Low 51
Friday – Mostly sunny High 69, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then sunny. Patchy drizzle in the morning, High 67, Low 53
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with patchy drizzle, High 66, Low 51
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 49

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 50
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 48

It IS raining in southern California, but things are improving quickly. Now, here is the ultra rare SOCAL RADAR!