Category Archives: Forecast

Burlington, Vermont

We’ve been watching a feature slide slowly up the coast. Today, it arrived in the Mid-Atlantic. Will it bring problems to northern New England?

At 754PM, ET, Burlington was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with overcast skies. There were a few showers being reported in Montreal and Saranac Lake, as well as at the north end of Lake Champlain, but the remainder of Northern Vermont was avoiding and damp conditions. This was merely because Burlington had found a window bbetween areas of showers, as tere was a band stretching from the Gulf of Maine to the Hudson to the south, and batches of shower activity east and west. The center of circulation for the responsible area of low pressure was sitting off the coast of Atlantic City.
The shower activity will continue through the morning as the upper level eddy swings into the Canadian Maritimes. The feature is actually moving within a broader upper level trough, so after the rain clears out, Burlington will warm up swiftly. Thursday will be mostly sunny as well as the next system to impact the region will be moving towards James Bay, all the while dragging more warm air into Vermont. Clouds will increase late on Thursday as the feature gets closer.
Tomorrow – Morning showers, then warmer, High 68, Low 47
Thursday – Warmer still, with sun and clouds late, High 74, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day. High 66, Low 46
Thursday – Sunshine and clouds mixed.High 73, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy in the morning, then periods of sun and clouds in the afternoon (morning showers) High 66, Low 47
Thursday – Warmer; cloudy with areas of fog in the morning, then a blend of sun and clouds in the afternoon High 77, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. a chance of showers in the morning. High 63, Low 47
Thursday – Mostly sunny. High 69, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly Sunny, High 79, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, Low 47
Thursday – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 76, Low 54

It’s very rainy in New England today, but there is a pretty good agreement that starting tomorrow, it’s going to get much warmer. here is the radar for all of New England.

New York, New York

We are going to take our forecast attitude to the Big Apple today. I imagine the forecast will be fairly similar to Barnstable yesterday, but maybe not as cool. As always, we are forecasting for Central Park.

At 1051AM, ET, New York was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 57 degrees with clear skies at Central Park. La Guardia and JFK were reporting overcast skies as an area of low pressure worked its way up the coast from the Carolina. This feature will bring some showers to the region as soon as tomorrow, with a heavier round of rain likely tomorrow afternoon.
A weak upper level wave is being pulled north towards a broader upper level trough in Canada, and riding the leading periphery of a south to north jet over the Mississippi Valley. As a result, despite the expected well organized circulation of this feature, it will not import any cooler air midweek. To the contrary, it will be much warmer by Wednesday as the rain clears out.
Tomorrow – Showers, some heavy in the afternoon, High 55, low 50
Wednesday – Morning showers, then clearing, High 61, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with rain likely High 55, low 51
Wednesday – Overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 61, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Cooler with periods of rain High 53, Low 50
Wednesday – Warmer with occasional rain and drizzle High 62, low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain Showers, High 53, Low 50
Wednesday – Cloudy, early rain, High 61, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Rain, High 55, Low 50
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of light rain in the afternoon, High 63, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with Rain High 54, low 48
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 66, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting overnight. High 54, low 48
Wednesday – Light rain until morning. High 63, Low 54

We are looking at a pretty well smothered in the Big Apple. mmm, smothered apples…. Here is the latest radar, showing some showers moving in.

Morning Mischief

The forecast for Muncie, IN wasn’t too difficult, only the chance of a stray shower was the real wrinkle. However, the temperatures really muddied things up as the Sunday diurnal was far greater than anybody expected, mainly due to conditions really clearing out overnight Saturday. Sunday’s chilly morning temps caused some poor scores, but VW/FIO tied for the win, mainly by keeping things dry all weekend.

Saturday: High 58, Low 40.
Sunday: High 72, Low 34.
Forecast Grade: C

Barnstable, Massachusetts

How about a forecast? I haven’t dabbled in this market for a while, it might be nice.

At 956PM, ET, Barnstable was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with clear skies. A light southwesterly wind off of the Atlantic was keeping temperatures cool, as they typically do on Cape Cod. Location aside, there was a cooler air mass over southeastern New England, with upper 40s covering the region. There is high pressure in the area, but it is decidedly Canadian, meaning the continued sunshine the area will receive tomorrow will be seasonably cool.
An eddy at the upper levels is centered over the southeastern US. It will be inexorably drawn towards the broader upper level trough moving through eastern Canada. Owing to the warmth and its proximity to the Gulf stream, the surface reflection of the perturbation in the southeastern US will ingest a great deal of moisture. The low will reach the Hampton Roads of Virginia by Tuesday afternoon, and when it does, it will be able to pull moisture off the Gulfstream into Cape Cod. Tuesday afternoon, as a result,  looks to be dreary with a few showers throughout the day.  The good news is that the showers will also bring in warmer air, meaning after the forecast period is over, temperatures will be on their way up.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 44
Tuesday – Cooler with rain in the afternoon. High 53, Low 46 (nonstandard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 59, Low 42
Tuesday – Rain. High 51, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then increasing clouds High 58, Low 42
Tuesday – Cooler with periods of rain High 51, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 61, Low 40
Tuesday – Rain likely, mainly after 9am. Cloudy, High 50, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 43
Tuesday – Rain likely. High 51, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 39
Tuesday – Cloudy with light rain, High 50, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting in the morning. High 54, Low 44
Tuesday – Light rain starting in the morning.High 50, Low 46

Some outlets seem to thing tomorrow can still get fairly warm. It will come down to how much sun they can see, and how calm winds are. Check out the developing system in the southeast. You can see a swirl over Tennessee where the low is emerging.

Weather Wayback… Before the drought

Earlier today, the SPC issued an extreme fire danger advisory for parts for New Mexico and Arizona, as neither location has seen much rain since the middle of February. In Farmington, where Anthony forecast on the 10th, they haven’t seen more than a trace since February 12th. Incredible to note that that .08″ they saw on that Sunday before Valentine’s Day was the last significant precipitation they saw, and we were there for the forecast. It looked to be a rainy weekend, especially by northwest New Mexico standards, but Saturday remained dry. Looking at how things have gone since then, I’ll bet they would have appreciated a little bit of rain on Saturday! For verification purposes, we can award Accuweather the top forecast for that particular February weekend.
Actuals
Saturday, February 11th – High 64, Low 43
Sunday, February 12th –  .08 inches of rain, High 53, Low 37

Grade: B-C

Muncie, Indiana

At 11:53pm EDT, the temperature at Muncie, IN was 47 degrees under fair skies. A dome of high pressure has taken hold from the Northern/Central Plains through the Great Lakes. This is keeping a frontal boundary camped out over the Ohio Valley down into the Southern Plains. An area of low pressure is expected to ride along the boundary throughout the day Saturday, but luckily for us, it should remain south of the Muncie area, sparing them of precip for the day. High pressure continues to linger over the region into Sunday and with mostly clear skies expected, temperatures will warm nicely throughout the area. Looks like a nice end to the weekend is in store!

Saturday: Cloudy, clearing a bit late. High 58, Low 43.
Sunday: Sunny and warmer. High 68, Low 41.

TWC: Saturday: Cloudy, some isolated showers. High 56, Low 43.
Sunday: Sunny. High 68, Low 39.

AW: Saturday: Cloudy and breezy, a shower possible. High 55, Low 42.
Sunday: Sunny and warmer. High 68, Low 39.

NWS: Saturday: Chance of showers. High 51, Low 44.
Sunday: Sunny. High 66, Low 41.

WB: Saturday: Chance of rain showers. High 53, Low 43.
Sunday: Sunny and warmer. High 66, Low 42.

WN: Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 52, Low 43.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 66, Low 41.

FIO: Saturday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 62, Low 42.
Sunday: Partly cloudy overnight. High 70, Low 40.

Some rain showers are pushing out of the area near Cincinnati, with a fairly dry overnight period ahead. While tomorrow will remain overcast, clearer skies are ahead!

Rain dampens Pine Bluff

The words isolated and scattered have meaning to a meteorologist. For example, on Easter in Pine Bluff, outlets across the country labeled the threat for storms as “isolated”. Indeed, the weather was not widespread enough to inflict any unpleasant weather on Pine Bluff. The forecast on Monday, however, was for scattered showers and storms. There was over half an inch of rain in Pine Bluf, as showers smothered southern Arkansas. Weatherbug was very close on temperatures, and claimed victory.
Actuals – Sunday – High 81, Low 63
Monday – .64 inches of rain, High 78, Low 65

Grade: A-C

Breaking out in Wyoming

The Easter weekend was downright wonderful in Wyoming’s capital and largest city. The sun was well anticipated by forecasters everywhere, but it was even stronger in Cheyenne than most people expected. On Saturday and Sunday, the high was 66, boosted by clearer skies than anticipated, and winds that were more quickly from the west, contributing to downsloping flow and a quick warm up. There was a tie at the top, as Accuweather and The Weather Channel drew level.
Actuals: Saturday – High 66, Low 39
Sunday – High 66, Low 33

Grade: B

Longview, Texas

Today we take a look at eastern TX, to see what the residents of Longview will encounter for Easter. Will their walk into church tomorrow be full of sun or will they have to dodge some storms?

At 653pm CDT, the temperature in Longview, TX was 80 degrees under fair skies. High pressure controls much of the Southeast US, the effects of which will trail off over eastern TX over the next couple of days. A frontal boundary found from the Great Lakes into the Central Plains won’t be of much concern on Easter, although some scattered shower activity looks to pop up over Central LA during the afternoon hours. The front gets much closer on Monday but still looks like it will stall out to the north of the region. However, scattered shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon and evening hours looks possible. Easter shouldn’t be too much of a concern, but some afternoon sports practices should keep an eye to the sky on Monday.

Sunday: Increasing afternoon clouds. High 83, Low 63.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, scattered early evening showers and thunderstorms possible. High 83, Low 65.

TWC: Sunday: Cloudy, slight chance of showers. High 84, Low 62.
Monday: Morning clouds, afternoon sun. Slight chance of showers. High 83, Low 64.

AW: Sunday: A thunderstorm in spots. High 85, Low 63.
Monday: Cloudy, a couple of thunderstorms. High 83, Low 64.

NWS: Sunday: Slight chance of thunderstorms. High 83, Low 64.
Monday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 82, Low 64.

WB: Sunday: Mostly cloudy, 20% chance of showers. High 83, Low 64.
Monday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 81, Low 66.

WN: Sunday: Partly cloudy with isolated storms. High 82, Low 64.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 82, Low 64.

FIO: Sunday: Mostly cloudy, drizzle in evening. High 84, Low 64.
Monday: Light rain possible in evening. High 86, Low 66.

Some isolated shower activity is found off to the east over Northern LA this evening. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon, but more widespread activity looks to be in the cards for Monday.

Pine Bluff, Arkansas

Hey, we’re off on another forecasting adventure. Today, we’ll head down to the south central US, where Pine Bluff may be in the firing line for some strong thunderstorms.

At 253PM, CT, Pine Bluff was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There were isolated thunderstorms cropping up across the southeastern portion of Arkansas, including some isolated cells on their way towards Pine Bluff, though the heaviest activity was closer to Greenville, Mississippi. The activity was associated with a flow off the Gulf of Mexico, enriching the region with a dose of muggy, unstable air. With a little bit of disturbed air to the west, there was ample fuel for an isolated storm in the Arkansas area.
There is a weak trough aloft moving through the Canadian Prairies that was the impetus for southerly flow to transport the Gulf moisture. An associated cold front will stall in northern Arkansas by early next week, allowing the southerly flow to continue to rush towards the boundary. While the boundary is still fairly organized tomorrow, Pine Bluff will remain mostly dry, however as it becomes more diffuse, the threat for showers and isolated embedded storms will increase across southern Arkansas.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High 80, Low 64
Monday – Scattered showers with a few storms in the evening, High 79, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 81, Low 62
Monday – Thunderstorms. High 76, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 81, Low 62
Monday – Cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 79, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Partly sunny High 82, Low 63
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 80, Low 63
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. High 78, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow -Partly cloudy with isolated storms. HIgh 82, Low 64
Monday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 81, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning.High 88, Low 65
Monday – Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 84, Low 65

I sincerely have no idea how FIO came out that high with their forecast. In any event, the NWS had a nice looping image of the current radar on their home page, so you can see the cell as it approaches Pine Bluff.