Category Archives: Forecast

Weather Wayback… Autumn came on time

Back in September, just as summer ended and fall arrived, Anthony looked at the weather in Salt Lake City. We have had a tough time seeing the arrival of spring this year, but Salt Lake City had no delay in seeing fall arrive. A cold front swept through town, bringing temperatures down to an autumnal level, right when temperatures are supposed to be brought down to an autumnal level. SLC is in a deep valley, and they tend to dodge most of the significant weather, but the 21st and 22nd were cool and gray, just like it’s supposed to be in the fall. The Weather Channel secured victory for the day.
Actuals: September 21st – Rain reported, not measured High 58, Low 51
September 22nd – .01” of rain, High 53, Low 41

Grade B- C

Anderson, South Carolina

I think it is underrepresented just how many people live between Charlotte and Atlanta. One big town after another. Anderson isn’t even the biggest town in the mix. It’s not even the second largest town in the mix, behind Greenville and Spartanburg. Let’s give these forgotten upstaters a forecast, shall we?

At 956PM, ET, Anderson was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with clear skies. After a cold, rainy day Tuesday, most of the southeast has rebounded nicely. Winds were now southwesterly, tapping into more regionally appropriate air fresh from the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure is fleeting, however, as the mean jet continues to cut west to east through the middle of the country.
A weak shortwaved trough in the middle of the country will tail the feature that plagued the northern portion of the country recently, though with a more southerly approach. The feature will be unable to bring as much cold air south, and an inactive cold front will instead drape across the southern United States. When it moves through early tomorrow morning, it will do so without any fanfare, though Thursday will likely be a hair cooler than today. A well established, more permanent, but slight cooler batch of high pressure will settle in behind the front to take Anderson through the remainder of the work week.
Tomorrow – Early clouds, then clearing, High 70, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 70, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 68, Low 58
Friday – Mainly sunny.  High 68, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with some clouds, then sunshine High 69 Low 56
Friday – Plenty of sun High 68, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 68, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny breezy, High 68, Low 62
Friday – Sunny, High 67, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 57
Sunny – High 68, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning. High 70, Low 52
Sunny – Clear throughout the day. High 69, Low 40

So not a lot going on in Anderson, so we turn to the satellite imagery. I can’t get over how good these new overlays look.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 07 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C07_G16_s20181090232240_e20181090235025_c20181090235060.nc

A turn for the worse

There Bridgeport was, just minding their own business, enjoying a spring weekend with temperatures in the mid 60s on Saturday. Delightful! Well, overnight, a big area of low pressure in the Great Lakes approached, and its friend, Gulfstream Moisture, rushed to meet it. This lead to a much cooler, drizzly day on Sunday, completely turning the weekend on its head. Ultimately, the top forecast went to The Weather Channel, so you can blame them for things getting so nasty as the weekend ended.
Actuals : Saturday – High 64, Low 44
Sunday – .46 inches of rain, High 45, Low 37

Grade A –C

Charleston, West Virginia

As the Upper Midwest continues to get buried under this historic April snowstorm, let’s take a peak at how the Mid-Atlantic is faring.

At 1154pm, the temperature at Charleston, WV was 49 degrees with light rain falling. Even as this potent low pressure system that’s sitting over Lake Huron and Erie continues to dump snow over the Upper Midwest, the intense cold front associated with it is pushing through the Mid-Atlantic region into the Northeast US. The back end of heavier rain showers are pushing out of the area currently, but scattered rain showers are expected to last throughout the overnight and the daytime hours tomorrow as northwest winds keep some upslope activity popping in the region. Temperatures are expected to drop throughout the day and by early Tuesday morning, could be cold enough for a brief snow shower to mix into the activity. Conditions should clear out by midday, precip-wise anyways, and make for a dry midweek period.

Monday: Lingering morning showers, flares back up in afternoon. High 49, Low 37.
Tuesday: Isolated morning rain/snow shower, then drying out for afternoon. High 52, Low 32.

TWC: Monday: Showers. High 43, Low 36.
Tuesday: Isolated showers, then cloudy. High 52, Low 33.

AW: Monday: Windy with rain, mainly early. High 51, Low 37.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 51, Low 33.

NWS: Monday: Chance of showers. High 44, Low 36.
Tuesday: Slight chance of rain/snow showers. High 49, Low 33.

WB: Monday: SITE DOWN
Tuesday: SITE DOWN

WN: Monday: Cloudy with chance of light showers. High 53, Low 36.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix. High 49, Low 33.

FIO: Monday: Rain overnight. High 49, Low 34.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 55, Low 32.

Weatherbug really needs to get their act together, right? Rain is shifting slowly eastward out of the region, but some lingering light shower activity remains into the early morning hours.

Utica, New York

A forecast filled weekend is drawing to a close. Of course, we keep dancing around where the weather is at it’s most interesting. Utica will provide it’s own thrills, even if it doesn’t snow a foot and a half or bring severe thunderstorms.

At 1228AM, ET, Utica was not reporting an observation, however local sites were reporting temperatures near freezing, and a spot of precipitation was seen northeast of Herkimer, and was likely producing sleet and freezing drizzle, thanks to a slow moving warm front that lies between Syracuse and Skaneateles. The center of low pressure associated with this system lies over western Pennsylvania, and the frontal complex is going to continue to occlude, however there is heavy rain and thunderstorms still being generated at the heart of this feature.
The upper level trough is tilted aggressively within the mean trough which suggests that it will be unable to continue propagating with terrible alacrity. The heaviest precipitation will move through overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, with mostly heavy rain. The precipitation will lighten, but the cold air will finally cycle in overnight Monday into Tuesday. Light snow showers will be possible as the low languishes over southern Quebec well into mid week.
Tomorrow – Heavy rain, especially early, with a wintry mix late, High 46, Low 30
Tuesday – Light snow and overcast with some drizzle late, High 38, Low 31

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with morning showers evolving to a steady, soaking rain in the afternoon High 46, Low 31
Tuesday – Cloudy with rain and snow showers early changing to mainly rain showers in the afternoon. High 39, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Strong winds gradually subsiding; rain and drizzle; strong winds can down trees and power lines High 49, Low 33
Tuesday – Cloudy with a couple of snow showers High 42, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm.  High 46, Low 32
Tuesday – Snow showers likely, possibly mixed with rain before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, 42, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms. Rain with freezing rain likely in the morning then rain in the afternoon. Ice accumulation around a trace. High 46, Low 32
Tuesday – Rain and snow showers likely. High 38, Low 33

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 46, Low 33
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix, High 42, Low 35

FIO: Tomorrow – Heavy rain until afternoon and breezy starting overnight, continuing until afternoon. High 53, Low 37
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 47, Low 39

Looks pretty gross, doesn’t it? Forecast.io is pretty optimistic on the temperature, so we’ll see if good thoughts lead to good weather. Here is the radar showing the blob off precip near Herkimer.

Seattle, Washington

Well, currently at VW HQ, winds are gusting to nearly 40mph and the snow is falling hard. And tomorrow is gonna be even worse, with somewhere around a foot of snow possible. Let’s go visit somewhere where they’re probably NOT going to get a foot of snow, shall we?

At 853pm PDT, the temperature at Seattle-Tacoma Intl Airport, WA was 49 degrees under overcast skies. Okay, well, at least they’re not getting snow, but it isn’t all sunshine and rainbows over the next couple of days in the Emerald City. A cold front is slowly working its way through the Pacific Northwest, spreading scattered showers throughout the region and especially up in the mountains. This system isn’t moving particularly fast. In fact, another impulse is expected to ride along the front Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing a bit of heavier rain shower activity to the SeaTac region. The main part of the system looks to push onshore over OR/N CA Sunday evening, and while the bulk of heavy rain will stay to the south, scattered showers will linger throughout the day Sunday over the area. Much of the Pacific Northwest looks to remain gloomy into the start of next week as a large upper low sits over the region.

Saturday: Rain showers likely. High 54, Low 46.
Sunday: Rain showers continue. High 53, Low 43.

TWC: Saturday: Rain. High 51, Low 45.
Sunday: Showers. High 52, Low 42.

AW: Saturday: Periods of rain. High 53, Low 47.
Sunday: Cloudy with a little rain. High 52, Low 44.

NWS: Saturday: Rain and breezy. High 53, Low 46.
Sunday: Rain likely. High 52, Low 43.

WB: Saturday: SITE DOWN.
Sunday: SITE DOWN.

WN: Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain. High 53, Low 45.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with light rain likely. High 52, Low 43.

FIO: Saturday: Rain overnight and in the morning. High 50, Low 45.
Sunday: Overcast through the day, some late evening showers. High 48, Low 41.

Here we see plentiful rains moving through the region tonight. They’re mainly found over higher elevations of the Olympia Peninsula and the Cascades, but plenty of them will find their way into the lower elevations around the Seattle metro area throughout the weekend.

Bridgeport, Connecticut

Things are looking dicey for the Upper Midwest this weekend with a massive late season storm on it’s way into town. Meanwhile, out east, spring is actually on its way.

At 352PM, ET, Bridgeport was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 68 degrees, a luxurious mid April afternoon. A weaker system over New Brunswick tailed a cold front that mergd with a warm front in the Great Lakes, which was tied to a much stronger feature. All this meant southerly flow rushing to low pressure along the boundary, and warm temperatures in the wake. There were some sea breeze clouds in central Connecticut, but Bridgeport was unbothered.
The next strong system is presently in the Great Lakes, and will approach Bridgeport through the weekend. An aggressive, moisture rich southerly flow will arrive in town late on Saturday, and the threat for light showers will linger throughout most of the day on Sunday. These will be a function of the strong southerly flow and moisture, as Bridgeport will continue to lie south of the warm front and still east of the rapidly occluding cold font. Most activity in the area will be as a result of free convection, and should be pretty mild. Temperatures will struggle thanks to the cloud cover and advancing cold front.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, becoming cloudy with drizzle late, High 68, Low 40
Sunday – Scattered showers, High 40, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies during the morning hours will give way to occasional showers in the afternoon. High 65, Low 45
Sunday – Cloudy with showers.  High 45, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (late rain)High 69, Low 44
Sunday – Much colder with on-and-off rain and drizzle High 44, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds (late rain) High 64, Low 42
Sunday – Light rain likely. Cloudy,  High 42, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny, (rain late) High 63, Low 45
Sunday – Light rain likely, Much colder, High 45, Low 40

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers High 62, Low 43
Sunday – Cloudy with light rain, High 40, Low 35

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting in the afternoon and breezy starting in the evening. (late rain) High 68, Low 42
Sunday – Breezy throughout the day and light rain overnight. High 41, Low 36

I wouldn’t be surprised if they can break out on Sunday and our highs are too low, but right now, it looks pretty overcast. Here is the current satellite, with nary a hint of overcast, at least in southwest Connecticut.

March forecaster of the month

Is it summer yet? No? The longest winter in some time is continuing unabated, with systems plowing the East Coast and cold weather entrenched in the Plains, March was lion all the way through. April hasn’t been that great to start off either, but it seemed to work out well for Victoria-Weather, who forecasted like the cold didn’t bother them. Even if the weather doesn’t turn around, we will certainly hope that that the forecasting skill continues at the same pace.

Back when forecasts were good

After such a cataclysmic verification for Rapid City yesterday, let’s step back in time, to the middle of September. The weather was dry in northern California, and the forecasting was easy. Sacramento was the scene of one of those forecasts, and while forecasts were a bit warm, they were only a handful of degrees, and not 10-15 degrees over the mark, as they were in South Dakota. Yes, these were indeed better days. Back then, we even let Weatherbug win a forecast every now and again. Crazy times I tell you.
Actuals: September 13th – High 79, Low 63
September 14th – High 78, Low 62

Grade A-B

Memphis, Tennessee

As snow showers plague much of the northern US, we head down to the lovely city of Memphis to see what kind of weather they’ll be greeted with to start the weekend. It’s gotta be warmer than up here!

At 1054pm CDT, the temperature at Memphis, TN was 54 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A weak disturbance is kicking up some rain showers and spotty thunderstorms already over eastern Arkansas which looks like they’ll drift over the Memphis area in the pre-dawn hours Friday. By daybreak this activity should dissipate and shift off to the east, however, as an area of low-pressure develops over the Red River Valley, it’ll set up a warm front over eastern OK into western AR, sparking a wide area of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Best chance of seeing this activity roll through will be in the late-afternoon and evening hours before activity starts to push south of the area late-evening. Some light showers look to linger in the area through midnight but then dies out early Saturday morning. Clouds remain throughout the day until a nose of high pressure pushes into the region in the afternoon, clearing out the remaining clouds and making for a very nice rest of the weekend.

Friday: Scattered rain showers and possible thunderstorms. High 61, Low 45.
Saturday: Few isolated pre-dawn showers, clouds decreasing through the day. High 48, Low 37.

TWC: Friday: Rain. High 58, Low 47.
Saturday: Morning clouds, afternoon sun. High 50, Low 33.

AW: Friday: Heavy rain and a thunderstorm. High 60, Low 47.
Saturday: Breezy with clouds breaking, spotty morning showers. High 50, Low 35.

NWS: Friday: Showers likely then showers (huh?). High 60, Low 44.
Saturday: Slight chance of showers. High 49, Low 36.

WB: Friday: Thunderstorms. High 57, Low 47.
Saturday: Some early morning showers, then mostly sunny. High 47, Low 37.

WN: Friday: Cloudy with showers. High 60, Low 44.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 49, Low 36.

FIO: Friday: Rain overnight and in the morning and breezy starting in the evening. High 56, Low 46.
Saturday: Isolated morning shower, breezy until morning and mostly cloudy until evening. High 47, Low 33.

Some shower activity is already developing over Eastern Arkansas and looks to continue expanding eastward during the early morning hours Friday. Better bring your umbrella cause it’s gonna be a soggy day.