Category Archives: Forecast

Dayton, Ohio

Let’s head out for a forecast in southwestern Ohio. Shall we?

At 756PM, ET, Dayton was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.  A sharp, late season trough over the Great Lakess was producing a surface area of low pressure in the lower Ohio Valley, while a leading band of precipitation ran from Virginia southward as a surface low was amplifying instability in that area. Ohio found itself between the two features, but that was not to be a long lived situation.
The broader, upper level low will shift from being centered over Illinois east towards Ohio. As the coastal feature shifts off shore by the early afternoon, the Gulf will be opened and moisture will flood northward. Expect widespread showers across Dayton through most of the afternoon on Wednesday and throughout the day on Thursday as the bloated feature drifts eastward. The best threat for heavy rain, or even an isolated thunderstorm will be late Wednesday when the center of circulation moves overhead. Thursday will see much lighter precipitation with wrap around moisture falling as drizzle.
Tomorrow – Rain with an embedded thunderstorm, mostly in the afternoon and evening, High 68, Low 55
Thursday – Light rain, High 64, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon.  High 71, Low 58
Thursday –  Cloudy with occasional rain showers. High 67. Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Not as warm with periods of rain and a thunderstorm High 69, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly cloudy and cool with a few showers High 64, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. High 67, Low 57
Thursday – A chance of showers. Cloudy, High 66, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 67, Low 58
Thursday – Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers, High 64, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with showers, High 66, Low 57
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers High 66, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the afternoon. High 71, Low 59
Thursday – Light rain until evening.High 66, Low 58

If this was the winter, Dayton would be in for a great deal of snow, thanks to the slow moving nature of this system, and the temperature change would be much more pronounced. Instead, it’s just going to be gray and dull. Here is the satellite, with clouds across most of the region, but none of those bubbly rain clouds over the Dayton area….for now.

San Antonio, Texas

Today we head off to the heart of Texas where some of my relatives reside, San Antonio! As we draw closer and closer to summer, let’s see how warm it’s getting down in the Lone Star State!

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at San Antonio, TX was 72 degrees under overcast skies. While high pressure is pushing south from the Northern High Plains, a mid-level disturbance is working its way through CO/NM and looks to swing through TX over the next 24 hours. Scattered storms are already firing over Western TX and look to push eastward throughout the day, bringing some inclement weather to the San Antonio weather in the afternoon and early-evening hours. It’s a quick moving system so the area should be cleared by late evening as high pressure continues to build over the state overnight into Wednesday. Wednesday will be warmer and sunny, so a pleasant day looks to be in the store as dew points will be 15-20 degrees lower than Tuesday! Enjoy!

Tuesday: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High 78, Low 65.
Wednesday: Sunny and warmer. High 86, Low 60.

TWC: Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 80, Low 64.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 86, Low 57.

AW: Tuesday: A p.m. thunderstorm in spots. High 82, Low 66.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and less humid. High 86, Low 56.

NWS: Tuesday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 82, Low 65.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 58.

WB: Tuesday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 77, Low 64.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 82, Low 57.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 82, Low 68.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 59.

FIO: Tuesday: Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 81, Low 59.
Wednesday: Light rain overnight and in the afternoon. High 71, Low 57.

Here we see many showers and thunderstorms off to the northwest of San Antonio and generally headed in their direction. Could be a stormy day tomorrow for the area before clearing out midweek.

Knowing the territory

The weather in Visalia was not expected to cause any issues, either for the forecasters investigating the city, nor for residents of Visalia, who enjoyed sun and highs in the low 70s. The top forecast, with only one degree of error, belonged to the NWS, which seemed to have some advantages in being the only outlet that forecasts for Visalia all the time. West Coast forecasts are all about familiarity.
Actuals: Sunday – High 73, Low 48
Monday – High 73, Low 50

Grade: A-C

Rains ruin a weekend

It was raining last Thursday when we started looking at Lancaster for our end of the week forecast. There was a splash of drizzle on Friday, but that didn’t foretell of a quiet day on Saturday, Saturday was drowned out by .83 inches of rain, and it didn’t even clear out for Sunday. I hope local Mothers’ Day activities were at least in gazebos instead of on the deck. The NWS had a great forecast, so there was plenty of time to plan if anyone listened to them.
Actuals:  Friday – .02 inches of rain, High 60, Low 51
Saturday – .83 inches of rain, High 55, Low 48

Grade: A-B

Great Expectations

With a system passing just south of the Fargo area during the middle week, there was great anticipation for a momentous warm up across the area when it departed. Temperatures proceeded to plummet overnight into Wednesday morning as clear skies and a bit of a cooler flow filtered into the region. That was the fatal flaw in the forecast. The high on Wednesday didn’t recover to match the expected highs, ensuring that there wasn’t a really good forecast to be had. I’m not going to say everything was all bad from a forecasting standpoint, however, as meteorologists and the weather recovered nicely, with a high of 70. WeatherNation was solid on Thursday, and ultimately had the privilege of claiming victory for the whole day.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 63, Low 41
Wednesday – High 70, Low 43

Grade: C-D

Steady As She Goes

A hot, dry forecast was in the books for Brownsville, and it didn’t disappoint. It was a bit cloudier in the mornings than expected, but that didn’t stop temperatures from hitting the 90s both days. Temperatures were very even across both days, which I’m sure made it easy for people to plan how to go about their days. Accuweather edged out the victory.

Wednesday: High 90, Low 77.
Thursday: High 91, Low 78.
Forecast Grade: A-B

Visalia, California

Good morning! It’s getting warm everywhere, but in California, it never really gets that cold anyway.

At 756AM, PT, Visalia was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with clear skies. An area of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest was inducing a westerly flow across California, transporting cooler Pacific air into the Valley, but keeping skies clear.
A look at the satellite suggests the ongoing trend for the next couple of days. Clear skies will persist at the lower terrain, mid level flow will generate some clouds in the Sierras. The upper level trough will break down, through flow will continue to bring moisture into the Sierras. Expect a few showers in the mountains, but Visalia will continue to be free and clear.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 46
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds. High 74, Low 46
Monday – Mainly sunny. High 74, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cool High 73, Low 46
Monday – Mostly sunny and cool High 74, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 48
Monday – Sunny – High 73, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 47
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 72. Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 48
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 45
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 45

So FIO is going a little on the warm side, I guess. here is a look at the satellite, showing those high clouds over the Sierras I had mentioned.

Beachworthy

There aren’t any beaches to speak of in Bremerton. Shoreline, definitely, but probably not anything you would traditionally call a beach. The weather was nice enough that if there were beaches, many Seattle area residents would have been at them on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ahead of a spit of rain coming from the Gulf of Alaska, temperatures were near 70 with mostly sunny skies during the day. Rain inched in just before Wednesday turned to Thursday, which was earlier than expected, throwing off everyone’s forecast. Accuweather was the best around, and earned victory.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 71, Low 41
Wednesday – Rain reported, not measured, High 69, Low 46

Grade C-D

Jonesboro, Arkansas

A storm system has been affecting the south the last few days, but will it finally give way to the residents of Jonesboro?! Or will it be a soggy Mother’s Day weekend?

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at Jonesboro, AR was 64 degrees under overcast skies. A slow-moving low pressure system brought plenty of rain and storms to the area over the last couple of days, but as that moves off to the east overnight tonight, high pressure will be building over the region. Clouds should dissipate overnight, giving way to a sunny morning. These clear skies are expected to last throughout the Mother’s Day Weekend, with temperatures perking up a few degrees for Sunday. What a lovely weekend!

Saturday: Sunny. High 78, Low 55.
Sunday: Sunny and warmer. High 83, Low 55.

TWC: Saturday: Sunny. High 77, Low 54.
Sunday: Sunny. High 82, Low 58.

AW: Saturday: Pleasant and warmer. High 77, Low 54.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High 81, Low 55.

NWS: Saturday: Sunny. High 77, Low 55.
Sunday: Sunny. High 82, Low 57.

WB: Saturday: Sunny. High 76, Low 56.
Sunday: Sunny. High 80, Low 57.

WN: Saturday: Sunny. High 77, Low 55.
Sunday: Sunny. High 82, Low 57.

FIO: Saturday: Clear throughout the day. High 79, Low 56.
Sunday: Clear thoughout the day. High 84, Low 56.

Here we see some rain showers off to the south of Jonesboro, the last vestiges of the low pressure system pulling away from the area.

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

We’re going on another forecasting adventure today, taking a trip to southeastern Pennsylvania. This is Amish country, which is important because with the rain on the way, horseback is going to be an efficient way to travel.

At 1253PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting light rain with overcast skies and a temperature of 53 degrees. Eastern Pennsylvania lies at the tail of a cold front extending from the Atlantic and the forward edge of a warm front eminating from the southern Plains, and that convergence is producing a great deal of rain, with the bulk of it closer to Wilkes-Barre and dwindling shower activity in southeastern Pennsylvania.
The feature in the plains will organize as it moves towards the Ohio Valley, and early on Friday there will be a respite from the shower activity.As the feature approches, however, showers will build back into the Lancaster area Friday evening. An inverted trough will develop on the northwestern flank of the feature, extending over eastern Pennsylvania and staying put, effectively ruining Saturday thanks to a cool, persistent rain.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a bit of drizzle, High 59, Low 47
Saturday – Rain throughout the day, High 54, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow -Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 58, Low 47
Saturday – Rain, High 52, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow -Considerable cloudiness with a shower High 58, Low 47
Saturday – Breezy with periods of rain High 53, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of light rain, mainly after 10am. Cloudy High 58, Low 48
Saturday – Rain, High 55, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 50
Saturday – Rain. Rain may be heavy at times in the afternoon, High 53, low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with patchy light drizzle, High 57, low 48
Saturday – Cloudy with rain, High 55, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow A chance of light rain, mainly after 10am. Cloudy High 61, Low 47
Saturday – Rain until evening.High 53, Low 48

Well, that’s gross. Here is the radar from this afternoon, showing that the weekend isn’t really much worse than it is today.