Flagstaff, Arizona

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Northern Arizona has weather that is more akin to the Rockies, which makes it a more palatable destination for people visiting the Grand Canyon. Flagstaff is a lot more palatable than some people think when they hear “Arizona”. It would be a real shock to hit 110 in Flagstaff.

At 157PM, PT, Flagstaff was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees with clear skies. An upper level trough was tailed east to west from the central Plains towards the Great Basin. Unlike tilted troughs normally behave, this will shove off to the east overnight, with high pressure building into the western US.
The high pressure in the region will allow temperatures to warm up a bit. The subtropical jet will still run through northern Mexico, so summer like temperatures are not going to return to Arizona, with only a few fair clouds for Flagstaff.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 42, Low 19
Tuesday – Fair skies, High 48, Low 18

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. High 42, Low 19
Tuesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 47, Low 19

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and chilly High 41, Low 21
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 47, Low 17

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 43, Low 16
Tuesday – Sunny, High 47, Low 16

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 40, Low 23
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 46, Low 21

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 43, Low 17
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 47, Low 18

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 40, Low 20
Tuesday – Sunny, High 45, Low 20

Some diversity to the temperature forecasts, which is nice, and makes sense. Like I said, northern Arizona is very much like the Rockies, which are mercurial at their best. Satellite shows some streaming clouds in southern Arizona, and more congested clouds north of the border.

Monroe, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Happy Saturday, everyone. Let’s see if the weather will keep everyone happy to begin the weekend.

At 415PM, ET, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 49 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure in eastern Canada has recently dragged a cool front through town, which will bring cooler but still pleasant weather through the weekend.
A deep trough of the mid-latitude jet is going to traverse the desert Southwest and begin the development of a surface trough that will organize over the Red River Valley. By Monday evening, the system will move to the northeast, approaching the Lower Ohio Valley. The leading edge of rain will arrive after sunset on Monday night, to begin a pretty wet middle of the week.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 49, Low 29
Monday – Increasing clouds with rain late, High 45, Low 29

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 51, Low 30
Monday – Cloudy. Late Rain, High 45, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 50, Low 33
Monday – Sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon (late rain) High 46, Low 35

NWS: Sunny, High 49, Low 29
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 46. Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 31
Monday – Cloudy (Late rain) High 45, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 29
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 46, Low 30

CLI: Tomorrow – sunny, High 48, Low 32
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 46, Low 34

Some difference of opinion on whether there will actually be rain on Monday evening. Looks pretty likely to me. Not now, though. Pretty quiet now.

Logan, Utah

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Winter is fast approaching, which is great news for members of the skiing and snowboarding community. The Wasatch are certainly poplar spots for that winter weather activity, but are we there yet?

At 951PM, MT, Logan was reporting a temperature of 29 degrees with clear skies and a light northwest wind behind a weak cool front that passed by earlier this morning. Clear skies prevailed across the Beehive State, with a ridge of high pressure nosing into the area from the west.
The jet structure is going to bubble around the Intermountain West, with a southern jet beginning to trough and engender some development in the Mexican Desert, while a ridge will only strengthen in the northern Plains. This will lead to some sustained stability, and late season warmth in Logan.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 23
Sunday – Sunny, High 55, Low 20

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 51, Low 26
Sunday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 56, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 49, Low 24
Sunday – Brilliant sunshine High 55, Low 21

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 51, Low 26
Sunday – Sunny High 57, Low 29

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 29
Sunday – Sunny, High 48, Low 32

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 27
Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 57, Low 27

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 50, Low 25
Sunday – Partly Cloudy, High 54, Low 25

All right, here is my guess: The top three outlets and Clime updated their forecasts with the new model guidance already, and the NWS just hasn’t. Guidance clearly is showing a chilly Sunday morning, and it’s already busted on the warm side, so trending colder makes more sense. With this confusion, let’s check with a local perspective, from KSL in Salt Lake City.

Sherman, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our forecast takes us to the Red River Valley, northeast of the MetroPlex. The Thanksgiving Holiday is soon approaching, so I have to believe more of us are looking at the weather in even more places.

At 250pm, CT, Sherman was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with clear skies. While there was a weak jet streak bringing high clouds to central Texas, the strongest flow aloft was well to the north. There was a strong wave of low pressure preparing to develop in the northern High Plains, which will act t draw flow from the south.
The strong jet to the north will usher the surface feature along while forming into a long waved, low amplitude ridge. This will provide stability to the region, and lead to some warmer air and sunny skies.
Tomorrow – Breezy partly cloudy, High 82, Low 61
Tuesday – Sunny, High 85, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky, High 82, Low 61
Tuesday – A mainly sunny sky. High 82, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and very warm; great day to be outside High 82, Low 61
Tuesday – Breezy and very warm with plenty of sunshine; dry weather for getting out to vote High 83, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 61
Tuesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 62
Tuesday – Sunny, High 79, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 62

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 60
Tuesday – Sunny High 84, Low 62

A look at the satellite shows that jet streak I mentioned earlier. A look at Accuweather’s forecast shows a bit of editorial commentary suggesting that they had too much free time for this forecast.

Cincinnati, Ohio

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are a lot of quirks about Cincinnati. First, the airport is actually across the Ohio River in Kentucky. Next, the radar terminal for the area is actually to the north, in Wilmington, because the WFO there services Columbus, Dayton and Springfield, as well. It begs the question: what exactly IS Cincinnati?

At 352PM, ET, Cincinnati was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The clouds were patchy or much of the tri-state region, with clearer skies at other nearby sites. Low pressure over the northern Plains is entangled with some tropical energy from the south and drenching the western Great Lakes. The two bits of energy are also attached to parallel jet streaks, which are boosting the energy but hampering the mobility of the feature.
The leading band of rain is diminishing over Indiana and northwest Ohio tonight, and will wear itself out
through the morning hours tomorrow. The trailing cold front will be dragged into the region later in the day Friday, arriving in the predawn on Saturday. By this point, low pressure will be developing over the central Rockies, with a warm front rising towards the Ohio Valley by the late evening, bringing a chance for steadier rain to the region after a cooler day beforehand.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with scattered showers, High 74, Low 63
Saturday – Overcast with light rain early, cooler, and more rain late, High 67, Low 57 (Non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers in the morning, then cloudy in the afternoon. High 76, Low 64
Saturday – Cloudy. Periods of rain early. High 66, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and warm with periods of clouds and sunshine High 76, Low 64
Saturday – Variably cloudy with a thunderstorm High 68, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain before 2pm, then a chance of rain and thunderstorms between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain after 5pm. Partly sunny High 77, Low 65
Saturday – A chance of rain. Cloudy High 67, Low 60

WB: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain, High 72, Low 66
Saturday – Cloudy with a chance of rain, High 65, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 77, Low 65
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with isolated storms, High 67, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 76, Low 61
Saturday – Thunderstorm, High 66, Low 58

It will be particularly interesting to keep an eye on the temperature trendline for Saturday. Post cold front to overcast to warm front, it could go a lot of different directions.

Olympia, Washington

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re off to Washington for this weekend issued forecast. Olympia is the capital of Washington, and the southern most city on the Puget Sound. Let’s check out Western Washington.

At 154PM, PT, Olympia was reporting a temperature of 54 degrees with a low overcast that was blanketing most of the Sound. There was a little bit of rain mixed with these clouds moving north through Centralia, with a some light rain likely to come to the capitol in the next couple of hours.
A weak circulation off the coast is driving flow on shore, which is helping to encourage the thick layer of coastal clouds that Washington is enduring this morning. The low is not expected to deteriorate until a parent upper level trough moves onshore late tomorrow. There will be a break in the clouds on Monday morning, but the upper level flow will be reinforced, and a trough will redevelop over Vancouver. The threat on Monday night will be from rain, rather than simply from overcast, though most of the activity will come to the north Sound.
Tomorrow – Overcast through the afternoon, chance of a little bit of drizzle. High 61, Low 52
Monday – Breaks in the clouds early, then clouds return with some late showers, High 56, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of fog early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 64, Low 51
Monday – Partly cloudy High 59, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower in the area High 65, Low 49
Monday – Cloudy High 57, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny,  High 61, Low 51
Monday – Mostly cloudy (late rain), High 58, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 53
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 56, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers, High 60, Low 52
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 47

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 48
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 43

I think I am more aggressive with my rain forecast because of the rain falling with the weak system in the area today that isn’t being handled by the models.

Victoria, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Victoria-Weather is forecasting for Victoria, Texas, and one might wonder if we have a home field advantage. I can assure you that we do not. Victoria-Weather is named after my home town of Victoria, Minnesota. Slightly different climates.

At 1051AM, CT, Victoria was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies and a brisk northerly wind. This will surely keep temperatures cooler for the Gulf Coast this morning. the wind is based on a surface flow, however, and high pressure is blanketing the middle of the country. Flow aloft is fairly stagnant, and cold air will not be actively imported as winds start to subside this afternoon.
A weak, quick hitting trough is developing in the lee of the Rockies, and will be moving northeast towards the Upper Midwest. The flow in the region will not alter much, thanks to sluggish jet flow in the region, but Victoria may see a little bit of a rise in humidity as the Gulf opens to the feature to the north.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 49
Wednesday – Warner, a bit stuffier, High 81, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 77, Low 45
Wednesday – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 77, Low 41
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine; breezy in the afternoon High 84, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 46
Wednesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, low 48
Wednesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 45
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 53

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 45
Wednesday – Sunny, High 83, Low 53

Those are some chilly morning lows for as far souh as Victoria is. The clouds over the Gulf certainly depict the vigorous off shore flow that is being observed. The rippling of the clouds parallel the coast, with nothing on land tells the story.

Racine, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Racine is nestled between Chicago and Milwaukee as part of the well populated stretch of lakeshore around Lake Michigan. It’s going to be a rainy couple of days for a lot of people. Is Racine going to be one of those locales?

At 1153PM, CT, Racine was reporting a temperature of 56 degrees with overcast skies. There was a smattering of rain showers moving west to east through northern Illinois, with some showers spilling north into Wisconsin. The coverage of rain in southern Wisconsin will only increase, as the rain is associated with a long, ranging warm front extended from a deepening system in the Plains.
Racine will exist in the warm sector for a brief time after the warm front passes through Thursday evening, and before the cold front arrives around midday on Friday. The front will potentially bring a bit of severe weather to Chicagoland, and I wouldn’t rule it out in Racine, either. The cold front will be gusty, and the tight rotation of the nearby low pressure could lead to some short lived funnels in the area. The primary concern, ultimately, will be rain, which will accumulate to several inches over the course of the storm, and depending on the intensity of thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Rain early, ending late, High 57, Low 54
Friday – Rain and some thunder in the afternoon. Breezy, High 58, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast with showers at times. High 58, Low 54
Friday – Windy with rain likely. Potential for heavy rainfall. High 58, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with rain; the rain is much needed due to drought conditions High 58, Low 55
Friday – Windy with periods of rain, some heavy, and a thunderstorm; the combination of fallen leaves and rainfall can lead to slick roads High 59, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy, High 58, Low 52
Friday – Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm High 60, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Chance of light rain showers in the morning, then light rain showers likely in the afternoon. High 56, Low 52
Friday – Breezy. Light showers likely in the morning then rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 55, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Windy with rain showers likely, High 58, Low 53
Friday – Windy with rain showers and scattered storms, High 59, Low 54

CLI: Tomorrow – Drizzle, High 57, Low 52
Friday – Drizzle, High 57, Low 52

Clime is really underselling this one, aren’t they? You can tell Racine is in for a grimy couple of days, with temperatures stuck in the 50s for 48+ hours. Here is the evening’s radar picture.

Bowling Green, Kentucky

Ryan Henning 2 Comments

Hey, weren’t we just forecasting in Indiana the other day? It will be interesting to see what can change in just a couple of days.

At 1053PM, CT, Bowling Green was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with clear skies. The cooler regime that has embraced the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the wake of Philippe on the east coast has remained in place over Kentucky, an the clear nights will only serve to make things even chillier. Two features bear watching that will bring an end to the crisp weather.
The first is a strong fall system emerging in the High Plains, and the second is crossing Mexico. Hurricane Lidia, a Pacific storm will move through the northern Gulf towards the Florida Panhandle over the next 24 hours. The warm front associated with the High Plains system will drive warm air northward through Kentucky, but the remnants of Lidia will intercept any Gulf moisture before it reaches Bowling Green.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 43
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. High 74, Low 43
Thursday – Sunny skies. High 82, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with partial sunshine High 77, Low 44
Thursday – Partly sunny and warm High 82, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 44
Thursday – Sunny, High 79, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 44
Thursday – Sunny, High 79, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 46
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 75, Low 44
Thursday – Sunny, High 82, Low 56

Clouds are encroaching from the south, but aren’t to Bowling Green quite yet.

Evansville, Indiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Hey, look, it’s a forecast! After a lengthy time away from the site forecasts, let’s see if we still remember how to do this.

At 1154AM, CT, Evansville was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 72 degrees. The region was in some clear, dry air in the wake of a rainy cold front that moved through yesterday afternoon. Low pressure continued to spiral over Michigan, and it will be pressed northward as Tropical Storm Philippe heads towards New England. The thermal trough will swing south today and overnight, with tomorrow morning landing as the chilliest morning of the season, with Sunday being even chillier.
Philippe will merge with the Great Lakes low and start to occlude and retrograde. The persistent northwest winds will keep temperatures down, and the moisture continuing to wrap between the two features and slowly into Indiana. This will lead to some overcast throughout the weekend, and temperatures closer to autumnal.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 44
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 64, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 63, Low 45
Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 66, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and cooler High 63, Low 45
Sunday – Plenty of sunshine High 67, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 44
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 60, Low 45
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 44

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 44
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 40

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 63, Low 45
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 43

This is what I believe many in the US would call football weather. There is a nice swath of sunny skies over southern Indiana today.