Chico, California

We’re off to northern California, to visit the first city we ever forecast for on A little history being made.

At 2pm, PT, Chico was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 64 degrees. If there were any sites in northern California that were reporting any clouds, they were near the coast, and those clouds were tied to the ocean, rather than any overwhelming atmospheric event.
The jet has shifted north and even an expected trough will move ashore in British Columbia and dive into the Continental US through the Northern Rockies over the next couple of days. A weak upper level boundary will move through associated with the trough on Monday, which will introduce some clouds that may linger through Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Fair, High 77, Low 48
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 77, 50

TWC: Partly cloudy. High 78, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 79, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and comfortable High 77, Low 46
Wednesday – Nice with times of clouds and sun High 77, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny,  High 78, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 50
Wednesday – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 79, Low 54

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 49
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 53

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 46
Wednesday – Sunny, High 78, Low 50

Victoria, Texas

It’s always a special day when we forecast for Victoria, because I get to remind everyone that the site is named this because I am from the version in Minnesota.

At 751PM, CT, Victoria was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with fair skies and a brisk onshore wind, gusting over 30mph. An upper level ridge is settling into place over the region, which will help temper the wind and allow temperatures to climb through the region.
While there won’t be a significant change to the weather on Monday, there will be a change nevertheless. Low pressure developing in the Colorado Rockies will emerge into the Plains on Monday afternoon, drawing air towards it, including moisture rich air off the Gulf coming through Victoria, making the day a bit cloudier and a bit stickier.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 66
Monday – Cloudier and more humid, High 82, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 83, Low 65
Monday – Cloudy with gusty winds developing during the afternoon. High 82, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with times of clouds and sun High 83, Low 65
Monday – Increasingly windy; cloudy in the morning, then intervals of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon High 79, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 65
Monday – Mostly cloudy High 80, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly cloudy, High 82, Low 65
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 66
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 68

CLI – Partly cloudy High 82, Low 64
Monday – Light rain showers High 82, Low 68

Clime is the only outlet calling for rain on Monday. I don’t think the moisture will be that rich. Take a look at the clear overhead radar in the area right now.


Palm Coast, Florida

Palm Coast is a fairly new addition to the census, having first been developed only starting in 1969, and incorporating 30 years later. Palm Coast is only 25, and in the last 25 years has grown by over 200%. It also has had a history of local wildfires. Will that be a factor with this forecast?

At 1035 PM, ET, Palm Coast was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees and clear skies. In fact, Florida found itself entirely under clear skies, which was surely helping with the temperatures dipping into the 50s in April. Low pressure was bringing a late season snow storm to interior New England, and its attendant cold front had already swept through the Sunshine State and was splitting the Bahamas this evening.
The clear air will continue into the morning, before a ridge builds into the region. Expect a little bit of cloud cover to return in the afternoons of both Friday and Saturday, thanks to some light sea breezes. Flow aloft will be negligible over Florida, so surface features will have a greater role in the daily weather, but the region hasn’t hit the rainy season yet, and rain is not expected even if cumulus fields form. A weak upper level ridge in the southeast will provide another element of stability for the area.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 49
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 75, Low 50
Saturday – Sunshine. High 69, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with plenty of sun High 75, Low 51
Saturday – Partly sunny High 68, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow -Sunny High 74, Low 50
Saturday – Sunny High 70, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 75, Low 46
Saturday – Sunny, High 68, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny, High 67, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73. Low 50
Saturday – Partly cloudy High 67, Low 50

A brisk north wind as the ridge settles in is going to be the driving factor in those temperatures coming down. Starting cool because of the crystal clear skies, however.

Columbus, Ohio

Back in the early days of this site, it seemed like we kept revisiting two cities in particular: Reno, Nevada and Columbus, Ohio. So I should do pretty well here!

At 1051PM, ET, Columbus was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 32 degrees. There is a brisk north wind rippling through central Ohio tonight, further exasperating a fire threat for parts of the region that missed out on the rain last week. The wind shouldn’t last too much longer, as surface high pressure is building into the Great Lakes for tomorrow. It will be cool with some, but nearly as much, wind.
A clipper moving into the High Plains tonight will reach the Great Lakes in two days time. Ahead of that, expect a bump in temperatures on Friday with the warm front arriving in the area early in the day. Low pressure emerging in the Gulf will also be moving towards the mid-Atlantic Friday, and will attempt to marry the Clipper in the Great Lakes. This will manifest as some stratiform overcast with a bit of light rain into the evening hours. Colder air will wait for the weekend, with the heaviest precipitation also ducking Columbus both north and South.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 42, Low 24
Friday – Warmer, with clouds and some light rain late, High 61, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 43, Low 23
Friday – Partly cloudy early followed by increasing clouds with showers developing later in the day. High 61, Low 28

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and chilly High 42, Low 22
Friday – Cloudy and warmer; a couple of afternoon showers High 64, Low 27

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 43, Low 23
Friday – A slight chance of rain after 3pm. Partly sunny, High 61, Low 28

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 29
Friday – Partly cloudy. A chance of rain in the afternoon. High 60, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 25
Friday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 61, Low 28

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 41, Low 22
Friday – Rain Showers, High 61, Low 26

I’d be surprised if Friday was a super rainy day in Columbus, but I wouldn’t make outdoor plans. The satellite tonight sure is clear. A sign of how quickly things change.

Davenport, Iowa

We’re continuing a recent trend of forecasting in the western Great Lakes with a trip to the Quad Cities.

At 252PM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with a brisk south wind and clear skies, There appeared to be a vorticity maximum near St. Joseph, Missouri, and a whorl of clouds over the center of the United States was bringing a few of the clouds north to eastern Iowa, but the the real threat for deteriorating conditions is further to the southwest, where low pressure is going to continue developing over the next couple of days.
By tomorrow evening, areas near an emerging warm front will start to feature show rain and thunderstorms across southeastern Iowa. The center of low pressure will start to shift northeastward, and what had been convective in nature at the beginning of the day will become cooler and more stratiform rain showers, ultimately giving way to cool cloudy skies in the evening.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, late thunder possible, High 67, Low 47
Thursday – Rain with embedded thunderstorms. Ending late, then cooler, High 58, Low 43(Non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. High 72, Low 45
Thursday – Showers and thunderstorms. High 60, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and warm with a shower in the area High 67, Low 47
Thursday – A thick cloud cover, breezy and mild with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; thunderstorms could bring damaging winds, flash flooding and hail High 63, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, (late rain) High 70, Low 48
Thursday – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. High 63, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 68, Low 51
Thursday – Rain with thunderstorms, High 55, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and scattered storms, High 58, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Drizzle, High 63, Low 45

This forecast was interrupted quite a few times while I tried to put it together. That vort max I mentioned at the beginning actually produced a couple severe storms east of Kansas City. Still not too bad in Davenport tonight, but it will deteriorate through the week. We’ll see at what pace.

Fond du Lac, Wisconsin

It’s been delightful here in Minnesota today, and I can’t imagine it’s been much different over in the Fox Valley.

At 1053PM, CT, Fond du Lac was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures are going to continue cooling off this evening thanks to the clear skies and dew points down in the 30s. A thermal ridge is parked over the middle of the country, so the cool down will be quickly forgotten after sunrise tomorrow.
A very week wave is going to ripple through the region tomorrow. It will take temperatures away from the record highs seen today, and provide a few clouds, but expect a dry day in Fond du Lac. A strong trough is bringing more mountain snow to the northern Rockies will continue to progress and develop rapidly into a strong area of low pressure in the southern High Plains. A warm front will become evident in the mid-Mississippi Valley, but it will not be an issue in Fond du Lac on Wednesday. Moisture coming into the region will lead to some additional clouds for Fond du Lac, but the rain will wait until Thursday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy and cooler, High 60, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 69, Low 43
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies High 62, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and warm; sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon High 68, Low 45
Wednesday – Sun through high clouds and remaining warm High 62, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly sunny,  High 60, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the evening then clearing, High 65, Low 48
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 57, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 46
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 40

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 45
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 37

It’s going to be busy aloft, but not much is actually going to go on in the city of Fond du Lac. Not until Thursday, anyway.

Peoria, Illinois

This part of the country, this time of year, you could really get anything out of a forecast. That is pretty exciting, and also could lead to some very peculiar forecasts.

At 1054PM, CT, Peoria was reporting a temperature of 43 degrees with overcast skies. A brisk northwest wind was filling the wake of some steady rain with clear and chilly air. After a soggy day in central Illinois, the last remaining bits of rain had moved nearly entirely into Indiana as a trough is swinging into the area at the upper levels, riding north of a strong jet propelling heavier storms in the southeastern US.
At the surface, a pair of low pressure centers will gently orbit around each other, slowing their poleward advance. Behind this agglomeration, high pressure is going to emerge in the Plains, and drift eastward, bringing a dry weekend to Peoria. The ridge will also lay over the top of a thermal ridge, which means temperatures, though chilly tonight, will not remain so.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 47, Low 33
Sunday – Sunny, High 53, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 45, Low 34
Sunday – A mainly sunny sky. High 49, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness; breezy in the afternoon; clocks spring ahead 1 hour at night High 47, Low 36
Sunday – Plenty of sunshine High 51, Low 27

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers after 3pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny High 45, Low 36
Sunday – Sunny, High 49, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 45, Low 39
Sunday – Sunny, High 46, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 45, Low 36
Sunday – Sunny, High 48, Low 27

CLI:: Tomorrow – Clear, High 46, Low 34
Sunday – Sunny, High 50, Low 28

I am not sure about the chaser rain forecast that some outlets have tomorrow. I think it will be fine. I don’t often post such a broad radar, but it really gives the scope of the inclement conditions out there this evening, affecting a lot of people.

Huntsville, Alabama

Happy Sunday, thank you for joining us for our second Alabama forecast in a week. I think this might be less interesting than Birmingham a few days ago.

At 953PM, CT, Huntsville was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Dew points mirrored the temperature, and a bit of overcast and fog was settling in over the southern part of the state, likely to encroach on Huntsville overnight as well.
Parallel troughs are leading to deeply occluded surface low pressure, the first headed towards Hudson Bay, and a developing low along the lingering boundary over the central Plains. This feature is leading to the return flow and ambient moisture throughout Alabama. Monday will be a fairly humid da for early March. There will be a threat for a rogue sprinkle, but the real threat for rain is coming early on Tuesday. A vorticity maximum analyzed by most models is seen emerging around New Orleans and headed east through southern Alabama on Tuesday. This should limit the capacity for thunderstorms or particularly heavy rain in Huntsville, though the day is still liable to be fairly dreary.
Tomorrow – Fog early, then mostly cloudy with some isolated showers, High 75, Low 58
Tuesday – Scattered showers and overcast, High 66, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early. Mostly cloudy skies. High 75, Low 59
Tuesday – Showers and thundershowers in the morning, then cloudy with rain likely in the afternoon. High 66, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm with a shower in places High 75, Low 57
Tuesday – Cloudy and not as warm with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 67, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, High 74, Low 59
Tuesday – A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 7am High 69, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 73, Low 59
Tuesday – Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning then showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 67, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 74, Low 59
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 68, Low 59

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 54
Tuesday – Drizzle, High 66, Low 55

I’m impressed by the outlets leaving rain out tomorrow. They could certainly be right, but I was too chicken to leave it fully out. I worry for Clime’s low temperature forecast. Check out the satellite, with fog really starting to slip into the bayous along the coast.

Birmingham, Alabama

Should we try to get kind of crazy today? Let’s try to get two forecasts in in one day!

At 1053AM, CT, Birmingham was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with light rain. The rain was popping up on radar a few miles ahead of more significant weather. Thunderstorms will be moving into Birmingham within the hour, and are presently lined up from north of Warrior to north of Aliceville, and will bring primarily a threat of some gusty winds, rain and thunder.
A healthy cold pool will chase the front out of town, leaving a cool afternoon in northern Alabama, followed by a crisp morning tomorrow. The jet structure is bifurcated right now, so despite a strong ridge to the north, Texas will be a ripe environment for cyclogenesis late this week. A much weaker feature than either the storm that is going to sweep through momentarily, or the strong system preparing to slam the west coast will develop in Texas and slide into Alabama on Friday morning, bringing a few showers and storms to Alabama’s largest city.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and chilly, increasing clouds late, High 52, Low 37
Friday – Scattered showers, cloudy, High 52, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies, slight chance of a rain shower, High 55, Low 36
Friday – Cloudy with periods of rain, high 54, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler High 53, low 36
Friday – Periods of rain and a thunderstorm High 54, low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 54, low 34
Friday – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm High 53, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 55, Low 39
Friday – Showers, a slight chance of a thunderstorm in the morning, then a chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon, High 53, low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy, High 56, Low 35
Friday – Mostly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 53, Low 45

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 59, Low 33
Friday – Rain showers, High 56, Low 45

We see a lot of towns in Alabama, but we don’t often touch on Birmingham. While we are here, we are getting some active weather, though! Radar shows this line of thunderstorms on the door steps.


Merced, California

We’ve had a few western forecasts of late, but if there was ever a year to spend a lot of forecasting energy in California, it’s this year.

At 653AM, PT, Merced was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with clear skies. It was a chilly start to the day that will ultimately stay fairly clear and cool. Clouds will increase late in the day, however and give rise to a much more interesting day tomorrow. Presently, Merced is between two strands of a strong jet; a broad trough to the south, allowing cooler air to the region, and a wavier northern jet, which is ridged at this time, leading to the clear conditions seen in town today.
Of course, with the waves, this means a trough is on its way shortly. Strong low pressure is tied to this wave, moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, and it is expected to retain some of that strength through the day tomorrow. A cold front will arrive in the afternoon tomorrow, starting at least 36 hours of rain, heavy at times in Merced, and vigorous snow in the mountains, with blizzard warnings already out for the Sierras. It will be quite cool for residents of Merced, and by the time the system gets out of the way on Sunday, a snowflake or two could reach the central Valley and hit Merced on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, with rain in the afternoon, High 63, Low 43
Friday – Rain, heavy at times, High 59, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will give way to occasional showers in the afternoon. High 66, Low 45
Friday – Showers early becoming a steady light rain later in the day. High 59, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then clouds with a shower late in the afternoon; significant snow expected in the mountains; travel will be dangerous, if not impossible east High 65, Low 44
Friday – Cloudy with showers High 62, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely after 4pm. Increasing clouds, High 65, Low 43
Friday – Rain, High 60, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain in the afternoon, High 65, Low 43
Friday – Rain, High 60, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain likely, High 64, Low 45
Friday – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 59, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 64, Low 45
Friday – Light rain showers, High 63, Low 48

It’s going to be regular nasty, not just California nasty with this system. Accuweather kind of expanded the radius of where Merced is, but they aren’t wrong. It might be downright impassable late this week in the Sierras. But look how nice thing look right now!