Category Archives: Forecast

New Orleans, Louisiana

As we head into the weekend, let’s take a look at how it’s shaping up for the Big Easy! Will it be a great weekend for tourists and residents alike? Or will vacation be spent indoors? Also, Summer officially started earlier this morning, hooray!

At 1053pm CDT, the temperature at New Orleans, LA was 83 degrees under fair skies. An occluded low is found over the Mid-MS River Valley, trailing a front through the Ohio Valley and down into the Deep South and Southern Plains. Some healthy thunderstorms are rolling through MS/AL ahead of the cold front, but this activity is expected to stay well north of the New Orleans area. The tail end of the front should remain north as it shifts east during the morning hours Friday, and much of the Eastern GOM/Gulf Coast looks to be quiet as the Bermuda High builds over the region. We can expect these fairly quiet conditions to extend into Saturday, with continued hot and muggy temperatures. Typical Summer conditions!

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 78.
Saturday: Continued sunny and muggy. High 92, Low 77.

TWC: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 77.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 92, Low 78.

AW: Friday: Partly sunny; delightful. High 91, Low 77.
Saturday: Partly sunny; humid. High 91, Low 78.

NWS: Friday: Partly sunny. High 92, Low 78.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 78.

WB: Friday: Partly sunny. High 87, Low 79.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 88, Low 79.

WN: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 92, Low 78.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 92, Low 78.

FIO: Friday: Humid throughout the day and mostly cloudy until evening. High 89, Low 76.
Saturday: Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 90, Low 77.

All is quiet around the Central Gulf Coast tonight, while portions of the Deep South are seeing some potent thunderstorms. This quiet pattern looks to extend into the weekend!

Not quite tropical, except for the rains

Late last week, it appeared that tropical storm Beryl was in the near future for the western Gulf of Mexico. As it would ultimately turn out, however, the storm didn’t organize enough to be named, but it did bring quite a bit of rain to eastern Texas. On Friday and Saturday, though, College Station was still concerning itself with the onshore flow associated with the strengthening low. The problem was that it wasn’t quite strong enough to really pipe in any moisture based on circulation alone. There was nary a drop those two days, which was unexpected by almost everyone, and the dry, sunny days meant warm days as well. The warmest forecasters were the Weather Service and WeatherNation, and they snagged the top spot.
Actuals: Friday – High 96, Low 74
Saturday – High 95, Low 75

Grade: B-D

Topeka got throttled

Early last week, we took a look at the forecast for Kansas’ capital, Topeka. A cold front preparing to bisect the Plains was set to touch off thunderstorms in the area on Monday, and it was going to be close, whether or not those storms fired up before the boundary passed Topeka or not. Perhaps the headline gave it away. There were severe storms all around Topeka, particularly northeast of town on Monday night. They collected exactly one inch of rain before all was said and done, with hail and gusty winds to boot. There was just a trace on Tuesday, and the subsequent day must have felt much more comfortable.
Actuals: Monday – 1.00″ in heavy thunderstorms, High 99, Low 69
Tuesday – Trace in rain, high 92, Low 69

Grade: C

Victoria, Texas

While it was scorching here in the Twin Cities (record high of 95!), let’s go take a look at somewhere a bit cooler, Texas! Wait what?

At 751pm CDT, the temperature at Victoria, TX was 85 degrees under fair skies. A broad ridge of high pressure is found throughout the South, from the Southern Plains through the Southeast. Outside of typical dryline storms in West TX and normal seabreeze-esque diurnal storms along the coast, the region is fairly void of synoptic systems. That’s expected to change over the weekend as a tropical feature is spinning its way from the Yucatan Peninsula towards the TX coastline. It’s not really expected to develop into anything, just looks like a system that will bring increase rains to the Victoria area, mainly on Sunday evening. Saturday looks fairly decent, just gotta dodge those pop-up afternoon storms!

Saturday: Isolated thunderstorms in afternoon. Hot and humid. High 94, Low 76.
Sunday: Slightly cooler with increased clouds, chances of storms increases for the afternoon and evening hours. High 90, Low 75.

TWC: Saturday: Partly cloudy, isolated showers. High 94, Low 76.
Sunday: Thunderstorms. High 89, Low 76.

AW: Saturday: A shower and t-storm around. High 92, Low 76.
Sunday: Rain and a t-storm, breezy. High 90, Low 76.

NWS: Saturday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 93, Low 76.
Sunday: Thunderstorms likely. High 90, Low 76.

WB: Saturday: Chance of storms. High 92, Low 76.
Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 88, Low 77.

WN: Saturday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. High 93, Low 76.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. High 90, Low 76.

FIO: Saturday: Humid throughout the day, partly cloudy in afternoon. High 92, Low 77.
Sunday: Rain starting in the afternoon. Hig 89, Low 76.

Here we see some clouds dotting the region. More noticeable, however, is a fire from Matagorda Island with it’s smoke blowing towards the northwest, just missing Victoria. It was a prescribed burn, so nothing to be too worried about.

College Station, Texas

Midweek, and time for another forecast. This time, we’re going to head to the home of one of the finer meteorology schools in the country, College Station, in east Texas.

At 153PM, CT, College Station was reporting a temperature of 92 degrees with partly cloudy skies. Some seabreeze thunderstorms were popping up along the coast, with the strongest storm presently passing through downtown Houston. A tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche was directing a southeasterly flow into the Texas coast, helping to contribute to the thunderstorm activity.
The NHC is monitoring the wave, with the expectation of some development in the next few days, though models seem to agree that it won’t develop beyond a weak tropical storm, making it Tropical Storm Beryl. In the meantime, afternoon thunderstorms will continue today, tomorrow and Saturday, as the future Beryl drifts into the western Gulf.
Tomorrow – Warm but with isolated thunderstorms, High 92, Low 75
Saturday – More thunderstorms, but still other wise warm and sunny, High 91, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 94, Low 73
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible.  High 93, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; humid High 93, Low 74
Saturday – Clouds and sunshine, a shower or thunderstorm around; humid High 92, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 95, Low 74
Saturday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 92, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 75
Saturday – Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 86, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms, High 95, Low 74
Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 92, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until evening.High 92, Low 72
Saturday – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 92, Low 73

Here is a look at the radar, showing those isolated thunderstorms. Very hit or or miss, and mostly miss.

Topeka, Kansas

All right, I’m back. Anthony monitored the site and took some good notes for Lubbock while I was away, but now we’re fully staffed. My new babies are sitting here in the room with me as I make this forecast, so now the paternal pressure is on!

At 353PM, CT, Topeka was reporting a sultry 98 degrees with a dew point of 68. Sunny skies dominated the region, but with upper level forcing hanging out in the Dakotas today, it appeared that their was no relief in sight for the day, and 100 degrees with those sticky dew points ensuring heat indices would remain dangerous for the rest of the day.
The pattern is unusually complicated for the middle of June, with a strong area of low pressure developing over the central Plains, though that is currently inactive. Showers and thunderstorms presently on satellite are the creation of a well organized system in the lee of the Canadian Rockies producing storms in the northern High Plains, while a stationary front in the southern Great Lakes is creating storms into the Mississippi Valley.  The surface low in the central Plains will draw northeast as the upper level trough associated with the system in Alberta will dig southwestward. The cold front will hang back with the jet diving into the Dakotas, but a prefrontal trough, acting as a remnant of the original low moving away from the central Rockies, will move through in the evening on Monday. There is a chance for an isolated strong thunderstorm during the PM hours on Monday as the trough moves through. It may take some of the humidity out of the air for Tuesday, however it won’t be a whole lot cooler when the sun comes out again.
Tomorrow – Hot and humid again, with some strong thunderstorms in the area, High 100, Low 76
Tuesday – Clearer and not as hot, High 87, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 99, Low 77
Tuesday – Generally sunny. High 91, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – A severe afternoon thunderstorm, with damaging winds and hail; otherwise, partly sunny, hot High 97, Low 76
Tuesday – Some sun, then turning cloudy, a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 92, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (Late Stors), High 96, Low 77
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, (early storms) High 90, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 95, Low 76
Tuesday – Sunny, High 90, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 96, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 98, Low 76
Tuesday – Light rain overnight. High 91, Low 67

This forecast both overstates and understates the thunderstorm threat. Expect storms could be extremely isolated, but those that develop could be monsters, with large hail and heavy precipitation, in particular. Truth be told, this forecast took about 3 hours to write thanks to those babies I was talking about, but here is the satellite from that time. Note all the activity northeast of Topeka.

Lubbock, Texas

Apologies for the delay in posting this forecast, apparently I can’t read a calendar! Sorry Lubbock residents! Let’s take a look at what it’s gonna be like heading into midweek for you

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at Lubbock, TX was 81 degrees under partly cloudy skies. An upper ridge is found over the Four Corners region, pushing most evening and overnight activity into the Northern and Central Plains. Meanwhile, West Texas is HOT. Well, they’re always hot in the summer, but still, many days of 100F+ highs never ceases to amaze me. That’s what it’ll be like in Lubbock for the next couple of days with maybe a few high clouds from time to time. Next chance of seeing some thunderstorm development in the region looks to be on Friday as the ridge breaks down slightly, allowing some dryline action to fire up nearby.

Wednesday: Sunny and hot. High 103, Low 72.
Thursday: Continued hot. High 103, Low 74.

TWC: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 102, Low 73.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 103, Low 72.

AW: Wednesday: Sunny to partly cloudy, hot. High 103, Low 70.
Thursday: Partly sunny. High 102, Low 73.

NWS: Wednesday: Hot. High 101, Low 71.
Thursday: Hot. High 101, Low 73.

WB: Wednesday: Sunny. High 100, Low 70.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 101, Low 74.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 100, Low 72.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 101, Low 75.

FIO: Wednesday: Partly cloudy in morning, continuing through evening. High 101, Low 69.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 99, Low 73.

Tail end of a front is kicking up storms off to the east of Lubbock, but quiet weather will take over the area tonight and last for a couple of days.

Crisp cool nights with storms on the horizon

Thunderstorms were rampant and dangerous across the Dakotas on Friday, with severe storms afflicting the central parts of those states. There were tornadoes west of Bismarck in North Dakota and gusty winds and hail along the Missouri river in South Dakota. It mostly erupted to the east of Rapid City, however, with cooler air encroaching after the strong thunderstorms blew up and moved on. There was a trace of rain Friday night for Rapid City, but their forecast was marked mostly by clear skies and temperatures that were significantly cooler than what had been forecast for the overnight lows. Victoria-Weather ended up with the top forecast for the day, to take us into June..
Actuals Friday – .01 inches of rain, High 83, Low 51
Saturday – High 72, Low 45

Grade D-F

Under the influence

Alberto was about parallel with Spartanburg when we compiled a forecast for the Carolina city on Tuesday, and the storm moved north towards the Great Lakes during the verification period. Over the course of that period, Alberto still exerted his influence along the Atlantic coast, training a great deal of rain fall, especially on the eastern exposures of the Appalachians. In Spartanburg, it rained about half an inch over the two day period, but more sun peeked between the clouds on Thursday to bring temperatures up a few degrees. The Weather Channel had a very good forecast and won the day.
Actuals: Wednesday – .28″ of the rain, High 82, Low 69
Thursday – .25″ of rain, High 86, Low 68

Grade: A-C

Rapid City, South Dakota

South Dakota may be contending with some rough weather before the night is through. But then what will come for the beginning of the weekend? That’s the mystery, isn’t it?

At 652PM, MT, Rapid City was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies. Strong thunderstorms were erupting on a well defined warm front, running from south of Sheridan Wyoming to north of Mobridge. There was a severe thunderstorm likely producing large hail north of Hulett, in the far northeast corner of Wyoming. A short wave trough pivoting through the northern High Plains will initially bring a surge of clear, if hot and sticky air through overnight into the early afternoon tomorrow.
A cold front arriving on the area at the back end of the same system has the potential to touch off a few thunderstorms in and around the Rapid City area tomorrow evening, but the greater threat will be in the center of the state. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will press east through the Dakotas, while the Black Hills and Rapid City get an infusion of cooler, dryer air Friday night, leading to a quite pleasant day on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Warm and stuffy, with thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. High 85, Low 60
Saturday – Mostly sunny, much more pleasant. High 74, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 87, Low 64
Saturday – Mainly sunny.  High 75, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; very warm High 86, Low 61
Saturday – Plenty of sun; breezy, pleasant High 74, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (late thunderstorms) High 87, Low 63
Saturday – Sunny, High 73, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy, Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe. High 82, Low 65
Saturday – Breezy. Mostly sunny. High 71, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 87, Low 63
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 53

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 85, Low 63
Saturday – Partly cloudy until morning and breezy in the morning. High 76, Low 56

That’s a pretty significant cool down for the weekend! Enjoy it, South Dakota. Here is the radar, showing the strong storm in northeast Wyoming.