Altoona, Pennsylvania
Posted by Ryan
I feel like whenever I come to forecast for Altoona, I'm running way behind schedule (2AM is certainly behind). Today' it's a product of my schedule, and not laze like it usually is.
At 253AM, ET, Altoona was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies. Ahead of a front moving into the Mid-Atlantic, western Pennsylvania was unusually clear of fog. Altoona finds itself in a precarious position early this Friday morning, as Hurricane Earl sits off the Outer Banks of North Carolina and a low over the Great Lakes is introducing a fall-like cold front into the region.
The front will steadily march eastward towards Altoona through the day today, arriving in the late afternoon or early evening. After that, the rainy conditions will continue for much of the overnight into Saturday. Earl will merge with this low and surface pressure will drop, increasing a northwesterly wind for Altoona, serving to help temperatures drop precipitously to begin the weekend.
Today - Rain in the afternoon and evening, High 87, Low 61
Tomorrow - Morning rain and much cooler temperatures High 66, Low 54
TWC: Today - A few isolated thunderstorms developing this afternoon under partly cloudy skies. High 84, Low 63
Tomorrow - Partly cloudy skies with gusty winds High 61, Low 51
AW: Today - Partly sunny and very warm High 88, Low 60
Tomorrow -Windy and cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 66, Low 51
NWS: Today - A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly cloudy High 89, Low 64
Tomorrow - A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 67, Low 52
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, a chance of showers in the afternoons, High 82, Low 63
Tomorrow - Partly sunny, High 64, Low 53
Accuweather, keeping Altoona dry. I will say... huh. Satellite shows that Accuweather might be mistaken.
Good for you, Optimists
Posted by Ryan
Things looked bleak in Eugene. Most forecast a continued drear for the home of the University of Oregon, but it didn't turn out so bad! There was no rain through the forecast period and temperatures climbed into the 70s each of the two days in question. Accuweather was the most optimistic of the monitored forecasters, and ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday - High 70, Low 50
Wednesday - High 76, Low 59
Grade: C
Laredo, Texas
Posted by Ryan
Way down in southern Texas, right on the Rio Grande for today's forecast. Did you know that Laredo is the largest city in America without a bookstore? Something to be proud of.
At 356PM, CT, Laredo was reporting a temperature of 102 with partly cloudy skies. Laredo was still in the summer time pattern, mostly avoiding any wet weather thanks to their inland nature and their southern position away from any advancing systems in the Plains. Generally speaking, Laredo only has to worry about tropical systems in he late summer, and whether or not they can push inland. Seeing as Earl, Fiona and Gaston are all presently taking a an East Coast track, Laredo appears to be safe from rain for the next couple of days.
Thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast, from Brownsville to Beaumont, however the only impact on Laredo will likely be a brief respite in the searing heat should some high clouds blow west into the Rio Grande Valley, though that appears unlikely. A deep high pressure will push into the southern Plains and the southern edge will provide a trigger point through Texas that may actually bring some increased clouds to Laredo on Friday.
Tomorrow - Partly cloudy and hot, High 103, Low 79
Friday - Increased clouds, still warm, High 100, Low 77
TWC: Tomorrow - Scattered clouds with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm developing during the afternoon. Hot High 101, Low 78
Friday - Thunderstorms developing in the afternoon High 99, Low 77
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny High 102, Low 79
Friday - Very warm with sunshine and patchy clouds High 100, Low 78
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny and hot High 102, Low 80
Friday - 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, High 100, Low 79
WB: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy, High 102, Low 80
Friday - Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 101, Low 79
A look at the satellite shows Earl really well, as well as those storms along the Texas coast.
Nothing good ever comes out of New Mexico
Posted by Ryan
I can't remember the last time someone nailed a forecast in new Mexico. The best forecasts there (in Santa Fe) this go around were from Accuweather and the Weather Service who were off by 7 degrees at least once in their forecast. Temperatures were warmer than expected, and an isolated thunderstorm on Monday through Victoria Weather off the scent. Why must you be so difficult, New Mexico?
Actuals: Monday - .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 84, Low 59
Tuesday - High 87, Low 53
Grade: D
Miles above everyone else
Posted by Ryan
The question in Des Moines was whether or not clouds would accompany a strong southerly flow associated with a strong low in the Dakotas. The clouds didn't come, as it turned out, and only one provider foresaw a sunny day with temperatures in the 90s. As usual, that was the Weather Channel, who outclassed everyone by at least 10 degrees.
Actuals: Sunday - High 92, Low 67
Monday - High 90, Low 72
Grade: A
Eugene, Oregon
Posted by Ryan
After so many summery forecasts, well, now we end up with this in Oregon. Sorry, folks.
At 959AM, PT, Eugene was reporting low clouds, rain and a temperature of 53 degrees. A band of showers was seen spanning from the coast near Florence to Eugene and inland to the Cascades west of Bend. More isolated activity was seen south to the California border. A weak low level low has shifted ashore from the western Pacific and is the source of the rain being seen here and further inland.
The overall pattern aloft is of a stout ridge in the east and a sharp trough over the Rockies, along which the weak Oregonian low is riding. The jet streak providing the support for the wet weather will break down due to it's stagnation and the moisture in Eugene will languish tomorrow. A stronger jet moving along the Alaska Panhandle will usher in deeper low pressure by midweek, however the mean jet will be just north of Eugene. Expect some warming temperatures on Wednesday, but continued clouds and a threat for rain.
Tomorrow - Dreary with rain, High 71, Low 46
Wednesday - Rain again likely, particularly in the afternoon, High 74, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow - Cloudy with a few showers. High 70, Low 46
Wednesday - A few morning showers. High 73, Low 54
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny High 74, Low 47
Wednesday - Some sun with a passing shower High 76, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy High 70, Low 51
Wednesday -A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 76, Low 52
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy, a slight chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon, High 70, Low 51
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly sunny. Slight chance of showers, High 76, Low 52
It appears that Accuweather is forecasting for some other Euguene that the rest of us were not aware of. Here is the drizzly radar.
Santa Fe, New Mexico
Posted by Ryan
Off to New Mexico, the Land of Enchantment.
At 1153AM, PT, Santa Fe was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies. The daily monsoon hasn't yet become active, and a trough over southern New Mexico may slow down the convection, however a strong, developing low over the northern Rockies will probably induce enough southerly flow to overcome the trough's influence.
The low will shift off to the northeast into Ontario over the forecast period, though a trough will continue to run ahead of the primary cold front in the Upper Midwest. It will act to prevent the thunderstorm activity from filtering out of southern New Mexico, keeping Santa Fe pleasant and dry for the beginning of the week.
Tomorrow - Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 54
Tuesday - Sunny, High 82, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible High 77, Low 52
Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 50
AW: Tomorrow - Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around; breezy High 80, Low 52
Tuesday - Partly sunny with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 83, Low 52
NWS: Tomorrow - A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 78, Low 52
Tuesday - Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 53
WB: Tomorrow - Partly Cloudy with a chance of showers and thudnerstorms, High 66, Low 51
Tuesday - Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 51
Uh oh, some problems with Weatherbug's numerical output. Satellite? Quiet
Everybody’s perfect
Posted by Ryan
At one point in the forecast period, every single one of the forecasters had a perfect verification, be it a high or a low. at some point in the forecast for Syracuse. That said, there were some pretty good forecasts on this occasion, with Victoria-Weather and Accuweather getting a tie on top.
Actuals: Friday - High 73, Low 52
Saturday -High 81, Low 52
Grade: A
Des Moines, Iowa
Posted by Ryan
Oh boy, high pressure!
At 1154AM, CT, Des Moines was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees with clear skies. A very well defined ridge existed in the eastern United States, while at the back edge of the ridge, a slow moving boundary fed off the northerly flow created by the anticyclonic flow.
A deep trough over the west will try to push east towards the ridge, but it is expected to hold up to the pressure of the advancing trough. A stronger southerly flow will be induced by the pressure gradient between the two systems, so expect some blustery but warm days for Des Moines.
Tomorrow - Sunny and breezy, High 88, Low 63
Monday - Increasingly cloudy, High 86, Low 68
TWC: Tomorrow - Mainly sunny. Hot. High 91, Low 66
Monday - A few clouds. High 89, Low 71
AW - Tomorrow - Mostly sunny and breezy High 86, Low 63
Monday - Mostly sunny, breezy and humid High 88, Low 69
NWS: Tomorrow - Sunny High 88, Low 63
Monday - Mostly sunny High 89, Low 66
WB: Tomorrow - Sunny, Breezy, High 88, Low 63
Monday - Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67
That's going to be tough on Monday. Will it cloud up, or will the warm advection dominate? It will be interesting to see.
High pressure, high quality
Posted by Ryan
The weather in Knoxville was graciously dominated by high pressure the past two days. this meant sunny skies, and somewhat cool air, but that was thanks to elevation more than any real climactic shift. The forecast was easily handled by Accuweather.
Actuals: Wednesday - High 86, Low 65
Thursday - High 89, Low 64
Grade: A