Category Archives: Forecast

Cold Turkey

A cold front moving through the country towed a big swath of cold temperatures through the Plains, and that chilly air was able to sink as far south as Wichita Falls. The most apparent time of day for those chilly temperatures was overnight, when low temperatures plummeted into the low to mid 30s. Brr! The clear skies allowed for those chilly temperatures overnight, but let temperatures climb back into the 60s as well. Victoria-Weather and surprising WeatherNation came together to get the tie.
Actuals: Sunday – High 61, Low 35
Monday – High 66, Low 33

Grade: B-C

Temperatures that don’t belong in Arizona

Flagstaff isn’t the type of town that you think of when you think of Arizona. The winter is often chilly and snowy, while in the summer, it never gets quite as warm as the more famous environs of the state. Flagstaff was expected to be fairly cool over the weekend, but by golly, those overnight lows were unreasonable. It was as cold as 10 degrees on Sunday morning. 10! This was much colder than expected, and across the board, forecasts went bust. The top spots went to Accuweather and Forecast.io, but they weren’t terribly good either.
Actuals: Saturday – High 46, Low 15
Sunday – High 55, Low 10

Grade: D-F

Lake Havasu City, Arizona

Today we take a trip to a Spring Break hotspot, though there won’t be a bevy of coed’s there currently. With Thanksgiving just a few days away, I imagine most college students are heading home for the long holiday weekend.

At 955pm MST, the temperature at Lake Havasu City, AZ was 63 degrees under fair skies. As a system dumps plenty of precip over the Pacific Northwest, high pressure is sitting firmly over the Desert Southwest. Fairly quiet conditions are expected to start the short workweek off and continue into Tuesday. Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer with a few clouds. So all in all, a fairly nice forecast! Get those Christmas shopping lists ready, Black Friday is imminent!

Monday: Partly cloudy. High 74, Low 45.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. High 80, Low 52.

TWC: Monday: Partly cloudy. High 75, Low 47.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 82, Low 53.

AW: Monday: Partly sunny and pleasant. High 75, Low 43.
Tuesday: Periods of clouds and sun. High 82, Low 48.

NWS: Monday: Mostly sunny. High 75, Low 46.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 79, Low 51.

WB: Monday: Mostly sunny. High 73, Low 48.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 78, Low 54.

WN: Monday: Mostly sunny. High 73, Low 43.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 78, Low 48.

FIO: Monday: Partly cloudy starting overnight. High 77, Low 46.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 82, Low 52.

Only cirrus clouds are traversing the area, indicative of how quiet the next couple of days are going to be for the area.

Providence, Rhode Island

Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High High 41, Low 32
Tuesday – Sunny, High 55, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds.  High 43, Low 32
Tuesday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon.High 57, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cooler High 43, Low 32
Tuesday – Warmer with sunshine and patchy clouds High 58, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,  High 42, Low 31
Tuesday – Sunny,  High 59, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 39, Low 31
Tuesday – Sunny. High 54, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 41, Low 31
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 56, low 35

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until night. High 42, Low 35
Tuesday – Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 57, Low 38

Wichita Falls, Texas

Seems weird actually writing up a forecast, rather than having a video for it. I think it would be a pretty dull video though, so here we are, left with this.

At 252PM, CT, Wichita Falls was reporting a temperature of 50 degrees with sunny skies and a brisk north wind, gusting to 35mph. The entire region, from Oklahoma to north Texas, was experiencing similar conditions, mostly sunny and with a strong northerly breeze. A surface cold front was evident in the observed wind field off the coast near Houston, but the line of associated clouds still hung out inland north of the Houston area.
The sharp upper level trough, as a function of its strength, will rotate quickly towards New England, with a sharp thermal trough clearing out with it. Clear skies and stiller air will move into the region by tomorrow, though the temperatures will be cooler than they were last week, thanks to another undercutting trough moving in from the Southern Rockies.
Tomorrow – Calmer, sunny, High 60, Low 34
Monday – Sunny, High 65, Low 36

TWC – Sunny skies, High 62, Low 35
Monday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon.  High 67, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Clear, High 62, Low 35
Monday – Clear and breezy High 67. Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 60, Low 34
Monday – Sunny High 65, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 61, Low 37
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 40

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 60, Low 34
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 37

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy overnight. High 59, Low 36
Monday – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 62, Low 39

So here is the satellite, showing that thin band of clouds now south of the Dallas area. They are too far up to be picked up by ASOS sensors on the ground.

Great expectations

A system moving through the Ohio Valley was supposed to start pulling some warm air off the Gulf and into southeastern Georgia, where it was to warm things back up in places like Hinesville, perhaps even comfortably above average. It did warm back up, but those rising temperatures only brought it back to near normal. The more optimistic outlets suffered, as a result, but The Weather Channel, who suspected the warmth would be less successful on moving back into the region, ended up earning victory.
Actuals Wednesday – High 63, Low 42
Thursday – High 72, Low 38

Grade: A-B

Flagstaff, Arizona

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 22
Sunday – Sunny, High 56, Low 23

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 48, Low 24
Sunday – Abundant sunshine. High 57, Low 19

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 49, Low 25
Sunday – Sunny much of the time High 57, Low 16

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 52, Low 29
Sunday – Sunny,  HIgh 56. Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 45, Low 24
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 54, Low 22

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny with slight chance of showers, High 52, Low 26
Sunday – Sunny with a slight chance of light showers, High 56, Low 23

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy overnight. High 43, Low 22
Sunday – Partly cloudy in the morning.

Forecasts are crazy and all over the map. This will be an interesting verification!

The unchanging air mass

Medford, and the entirety of the Pacific Northwest, really, were slammed with a strong system during the middle of the week. A system of this ilk, and in fact this very same system currently, were it to move through the Plains would have the energy to change the climate of a city from fall to winter in the span of a couple of hours. In Medford? The high temperature dropped 5 degrees from Tuesday to Wednesday, and that was about it. There was a little bit of rain on Wednesday, sure, but it wasn’t the slobberknocker it was further up the coast, or to the east in the Rockies. It was a slobberknocker among the meteorologists forecasting for the site. 6 of the 7 outlets were within 2 degrees of one another, but only one outlet sat alone at the top… Us! Victoria-Weather earned the win.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 54, Low 34
Wednesday – .19 inches of rain, HIgh 49, Low 34

Grade: C-D

Wheeling, West Virginia

Earlier this evening, I was conversing with a friend about a music festival we’ll be attending in a few months. My friend lives in Wheeling, WV currently. I better make it a good forecast or she’ll mock me ruthlessly!

At 953pm EST, the temperature at Wheeling, WV was 45 degrees under overcast skies. An area of low pressure is shifting through the Great Lakes tonight, pushing a cold front through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast during the day tomorrow. Some spotty shower activity is found in the area currently but will continue shifting towards the east as we push towards dawn. Dry weather is expected behind the front on Thursday but breezy conditions will keep the day fairly brisk tomorrow. Winds calm down as high pressure moves overhead Thursday night into Friday, so temperatures will drop somewhat sharply. Luckily, southwesterly flow on Friday will perk temperatures back up a few degrees, so Friday should be much nicer to be outside compared to Thursday.

Thursday: Isolated early morning rain shower, then overcast and breezy throughout the day. High 44, Low 34.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High 47, Low 30.

TWC: Thursday: Cloudy with some early morning showers. High 47, Low 35.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High 48, Low 29.

AW: Thursday: An early morning downpour possible, then rather cloudy, breezy. High 41, Low 34.
Friday: Partial sunshine. High 47, Low 27.

NWS: Thursday: A chance of morning rain/snow showers, then rain in afternoon. High 41, Low 33.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 49, Low 29.

WB: Thursday: Considerable cloudiness with a chance of rain and slight chance of snow showers. High 42, Low 34.
Friday: Partly cloudy, evening rain showers possible. High 46, Low 31.

WN: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix. High 45, Low 34.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High 49, Low 29.

FIO: Thursday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day, possible early AM shower. High 50, Low 37.
Friday: Foggy starting overnight, isolated snow showers late. High 44, Low 32.

Some isolated shower activity has shifted east of Wheeling during the late evening hours, and should clear out of the area as the day progresses.

Hinesville, Georgia

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 67, Low 42
Thursday – Breezy and partly cloudy, HIgh 75, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow- Sunny skies. High 66, Low 41
Thursday – A mainly sunny sky. High 72, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 65, Low 41
Thursday – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 71, low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 64, Low 40
Thursday – Sunny, High 69, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 64, Low 42
Thursday – Sunny, High 70, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 40
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 62, Low 41
Thursday – Partly cloudy until morning. High 69, Low 40