Durham, North Carolina

We are 4 days into December, and it’s already snowed twice at the Victoria-Weather headquarters. Let’s see how it is going in North Carolina.

At 1130, ET, Durham was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees with clear skies. An elongated ridge ran along the coast, with the southwestern end nosing into the Carolinas, keeping Durham dry this evening. The tenuous existence of the ridge will make the Carolinas susceptible to wet weather over the next couple of days, despite the clear skies at present.
There is a low level perturbation that is moving east out of northern Alabama tonight, and will attempt to wrap under the southern Appalachians and into the Carolina Plains with limited success. A more notable feature moving through Canada will dangle a cold front that eventually catches up to the perturbation lurking in the southeast. This boundary will more effectively tap into the moisture drawn in tomorrow morning, leading to some clouds and light rain throughout the day on Tuesday. Don’t expect the front to ever reach Durham, however, so a dramatic cool down will be averted.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 55, Low 32
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with some light rain, High 59, Low 46

TWC: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness. High 55, Low 29
Tuesday – Cloudy with showers High 58, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Some sunshine giving way to clouds High 54, Low 29
Tuesday – Cloudy with a passing shower High 58, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow -Partly sunny, High 53, Low 29
Tuesday – A chance of rain before 8am, then showers likely, mainly between 8am and 2pm. Cloudy High 59, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, late rain High 53, Low 30
Tuesday – Cloudy. Showers mainly in the morning. High 59, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 53, Low 31
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 57, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 51, Low 35
Tuesday – Rain until night, starting again in the afternoon. High 59, Low 484

Satellite tonight shows whispers of clouds over Durham, but a pleasant day is promised ahead, unless you ask Weatherbug.

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Tulsa, Oklahoma

Today’s forecast takes us to another part of the country that is known for strong spring time weather, after Decatur earlier this week. Will Tulsa see cool and calm like Decatur did, or will we see something different?

At 953AM, Tulsa was reporting a brisk 42 degrees with mostly cloudy skies and wind gusting over 20mph. The jet was quite strong, which is not unusual for the time of year, and ridging through the center of the country. High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley was generating the brisk wind on it’s back side, with return flow bringing some of the cloud and chances for rain in the southern Plains.
Over the Rockies, this same strong jet is producing a trough, which hasn’t fully materialized into a surface low yet, thanks to the local terrain. Expect a deep area of low pressure to emerge over South Dakota tomorrow morning, enhancing the windy conditions over Tulsa. Flow will be from the southwest, with high pressure still nosing into the northern Gulf, and this will staunch moisture flow into Oklahoma. The associated cold front will arrive late Friday with similarly gusty winds, and a significant Saturday cool down.
Tomorrow – Passing clouds, breezy, High 67, Low 48
Saturday – Partly cloudy, colder but less windy, High 49, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. High 65, Low 46
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. High 49, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, windy and warmer High 64, Low 47
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and cooler High 48, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 46
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Breezy, High 65, Low 47
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 47
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Windy in the morning and afternoon. High 64, Low 44
Saturday – Windy overnight. High 53, Low 33

The high on Saturday will probably come at midnight. The WeatherNation hourly forecast doesn’t extend that far out, but they shouldn’t be too far off. Check out the satellite, showing clouds wrapping around high pressure in Texas and Oklahoma.

Decatur, Alabama

Tonight’s forecast takes us to an area under threat for severe weather. The strongest storms are in Mississippi, but northern Alabama remains in a slight risk for severe weather.

At 853PM, CT, Decatur was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 63 degrees. Low clouds and cool temperatures across northern Alabama suggest that the threat for severe weather is likely over, however, there is plenty of rain and thunder across central Tennessee that looms as a possibility overnight. Flash flooding is always a possibility, but the strong winds and tornadoes will remain to the southwest.
The parent area of low pressure associated with tonight’s storms is moving north of the Great Lakes, while a secondary vorticity maximum was centered over western Kentucky, providing the atmospheric spin, and emphasis on moisture importation to the region tonight. As a unit, this feature is progressing swiftly to the east, and the threat of rain should be clear of Decatur by sunrise. The high pressure that builds behind this system will be stout but transient. The next two days will be cool and clear, a recovery after a rainy and stormy night.
Tomorrow – Rain ending early, then becoming sunny, High 58, Low 30
Thursday – Sunny, High 52, Low 27

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon (early rain). High 62, Low 33
Thursday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 52, Low 29

AW: Tomorrow – Cooler with clouds giving way to sun; breezy in the afternoon (Early Rain) High 60, Low 34
Thursday – Sunshine, High 52, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, (Rain early) High 67, Low 36
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 31

WB: Tomorrow – Much cooler, mostly sunny (Early rain), High 62, Low 33
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 50, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and scattered storms, High 64, Low 36
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 51, Low 32

FIO: Tomorrow – Heavy rain overnight and in the morning. High 63, Low 34
Thursday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 51, Low 29

Temperatures tomorrow will be falling through the day as high pressure settles in. Some rain looms to the northwest, but mercifully, none of it will bring terrible storms.

Racine, Wisconsin

Today’s forecast takes us to southeastern Wisconsin. Thanksgiving week in the Midwest seems appropriate.

At 1053AM, CT, Racine was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with clear skies. An area of low pressure over eastern Canada was inducing a strong west wind across Wisconsin, which made things feel cool, but the off shore breeze allowed temperatures to reach 40 and ensured that clouds stayed over Lake Michigan.
The wave over Canada will be replaced by weak low pressure in the Canadian Prairies. The change in pattern will tamp down on the gusty winds, and the change in flow around the next area of low pressure will bring about some southerly flow, and warmer temperatures for mid-week.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 44, Low 23
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 48, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. High 44, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. High 49, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; quiet weather for early holiday travelers High 45, Low 28
Wednesday – Sunny to partly cloudy High 50, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 44, Low 25
Wednesday – Sunny High 49, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing, High 43, Low 25
Wednesday – Sunny, High 47, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 42, Low 27
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 31

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 43, Low 28
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 48, Low 31

Check out the satellite of the Great Lakes. The westerly flow is leading to a cloudy day in Michigan, but not in Wisconsin.

Jefferson City, Missouri

We are heading back to Missouri for our forecast today, and this time, we are taking it to the manager, visiting the state capital.

At 553AM, CT, Jefferson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 65 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure centered over the Upper Midwest is producing a warm front that ranged through the northern Great Lakes, and was drawing forth a significant warm surge through the Mississippi Valley, bringing forth the unusual warmth in early November.
As with most autumnal systems, there is a strong cold front dangling off the back end of the low pressure center, This active pattern is also punctuated by the remnants of Hurricane Nicole over Florida, and drifting north into southern Appalachia. The cold front will be active with showers and storms over northwestern Missouri this afternoon and evening, with the chance of a shower arriving near sunrise tomorrow. Nicole, however, will sap most of the moisture moving towards Jefferson City, which will tone down the rain chances through the day Friday. That said, mid layer clouds and a rush of cooler air will still trail the boundary, making for a chilly start to the weekend.
Tomorrow – Early showers lead to clouds and cold, High 52, Low 30
Saturday – Partly cloudy but colder, High 37, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 51, Low 33
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 40, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, partly to mostly sunny and cooler; the colder weather will linger into next week High 53, Low 32
Saturday – Mostly sunny and cold High 40, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, (early storms) High 50, Low 30
Saturday – Sunny High 38, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny (early rain), High 53, Low 32
Saturday – Sunny, High 40, Low 26

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 34
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 51, Low 31
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 40, Low 25

The cold front over northern Missouri is looming. Enjoy the heat today, because winter is around the corner.

College Station, Texas

Texas A&M is located in College Station, and is home to a very good meteorology school. One suspects that at least one of the forecasters in this competition will have a close connection with College Station.

AT 1253PM, CT, College Station was reporting a temperature of 73 with clear skies. A jet streak aloft over east Texas was evident in some streaming cirrus over the region. Further to the south, a thatch of clouds over southern Texas represented return flow on the back end of surface high pressure. As the jet streak carries to the northeast, the Gulf will open further, with moisture allowed to trek north through the state.
A weak trough at the entrance of the jet streak is going to exacerbate the shower activity in south Texas, with rain bubbling up through much of the southern half of the Lone Star State. As this upper wave transitions away, and an upper ridge establishes over the center of the country, high pressure will recommit to the southeastern US. Flow into an area of low pressure developing in the High Plains will route north of College Station, and a warm, dry start to November is anticipated.
Tomorrow – Chance of evening showers, otherwise warm, High 73, Low 58
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late.  High 75, Low 58
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 80, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers High 73, Low 60
Wednesday – Pleasant with sun and areas of low clouds High 79, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 72, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. High 71, Low 60
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 54
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 56

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 59

Tomorrow, in a worst case scenario, might necessitate kids staying indoors and eating a whole lot of candy. Happy Halloween!

Columbia, Missouri

Columbia is the home of the University of Missouri, and like most of the population of Missouri, isn’t terribly far from St. Louis.

At 154PM, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with fair skies. Low pressure moving through the northern Plains was inducing brisk southerly winds that were bringing temperatures up to unusually high levels, and introducing a little bit of moisture to the atmosphere. Columbia was on the cusp of drought, but is not presently under a red flag warning, even with the gusty winds.
The strong feature in the Plains is going to gain a tighter circulation and start moving north toward the Dakotas and Minnesota. The cold front, owing to the primarily northerly vector of the system, will be slow moving. The boundary will flare in Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow morning, and slowly traipse across Missouri before arriving in Columbia in the evening on Monday. The base of the trough will be fertile ground for more cyclonic development, and a wave will develop in the Red River Valley and move north, ensuring that after the rain and thunder start on Monday, it will persist, though likely with less thunder, through the early part of Tuesday, with colder temperatures following.
Tomorrow – Rain and thunder arriving late after another warm October day. High 74, Low 54
Tuesday – Rain through the afternoon, then clearing, High 54, Low 46

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain in the afternoon. Thunder possible High 72, Low 50
Tuesday – Periods of rain High 52, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, breezy and not as warm; a couple of afternoon showers and a heavy thunderstorm High 72, Low 55
Tuesday – Cloudy, breezy and cooler with heavy rain tapering off High 55, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly after 2pm High 73, Low 59
Tuesday – Showers likely, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy High 59, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, showers in the afternoon, High 74, Low 56
Tuesday – Showers likely mainly in the morning, High 57, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 74, Low 63
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 56, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day. High 79, Low 63
Tuesday – Rain throughout the day. High 67, Low 46

It is non-standard temperature season! What a rainy forecast for eastern Missouri. I wouldn’t be surprised to see several inches of rain in some parts of the state. The low is easily apparent up in Montana even this afternoon.

Pocatello, Idaho

I saw that we are on the cusp of some changes to the pattern in the interior northwest. It is October, so perhaps you can guess what kind of changes those might be.

At 1153AM, MT, Pocatello was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 62. The clear skies were leading to chilly nights with the low dew points, but the sunshine meant temperatures were unbound in the afternoon, and record highs have been dotting the region of late. The low trough off the west coast in conjunction with the ridge has established what is known as a Rex Block, stifling flow in Idaho.
The western US is going to remain under this Rex Block until the weekend, and flow through the region will remain fairly stagnated. Expect some morning haze or smog, especially in the valleys, thanks to the lack of flow at the surface, but continued warm temperatures and sunny skies in the afternoon. Things will be quite a bit different this weekend, however.
Tomorrow – Sunny with haze, High 76, Low 35
Wednesday – Sunny, hazy in the morning, High 73, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 76, Low 36
Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 74, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Warm with plenty of sunshine High 76, Low 34
Wednesday – Brilliant sunshine and warm with the temperature approaching the record of 78 set in 1950 High 75, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 42
Wednesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, areas of frost in the morning, High 72, Low 35
Wednesday – Sunny, High 71, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 42
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 74, Low 40
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 72, Low 37

Pretty different forecast lows, but consistent elsewhere. Makes sense when the satellite imagery looks like this. By the way, the change I hinted at in the intro is coming over the weekend. It’s going to get cold and snowy for a lot of the Northwest.

Brownsville, Texas

Brownsville is part of a surprisingly well populated stretch in the far southern part of Texas, including Harlingen and McAllen. Brownsville is the furthest south, and closest to the Gulf of Mexico. It also happens to be significantly further from any town, excepting Harlingen and McAllen, than anyone really expects.

At 953AM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with clear skies. A dry line was spread through central Texas, and while the Dallas area had dew points in the the 40s, it was already in the mid 70s along the Rio Grande. There was a threat for strong thunderstorms closer to Corpus Christi this afternoon, and some of those shower and thunderstorms flaring south towards Brownsville can’t be ruled out later today. Additionally, Tropical Storm Karl was churning away in the Bay of Campeche. Tropical Storm Warnings extended to Matamoros on the other side of the Rio Grande, but his presence only raised the threat for coastal thunderstorms this afternoon.
Karl is moving southward, expected to landfall near Coatzcoalcos on the Campeche coast, so the attention will be turned to the dry line to the north of Brownsville. Without the counterclockwise rotation from Karl, the dry line will lose it’s potency as well. The dry line dichotomy will linger through the period, but the threat for showers and storms will abate over deep south Texas. As Karl continues to waste away in Central America, Brownsville will be more stable than normal for a hot humid stretch, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures preparing to climb.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 73
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 89, Low 73
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 92, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon High 90, Low 73
Saturday – Partly sunny and humid; breezy in the afternoon High 91, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 90, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, high 90, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 74

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 73
Saturday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 73

Its strange that the driest forecast is the coolest forecast. Strange. Karl is showing up dramatically on the Gulf satellite imagery.

Fayetteville, Arkansas

There are two options for Fayettevilles in the United States. I’ve only been to the one in Arkansas, and it is definitely not what you expect in “Arkansas” given the haven of Fortune 500 companies, University and tourism. What kind of weather is coming their way?

At 853PM, CT, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. It was a continuation of dry weather, and there were burn bans across most of the region. The Ozarks were seeing cooler temperatures than surrounding regions, owing to the terrain of northwest Arkansas.
Surface high pressure is dropping southward within a complicated jet trough. The nature of the troughing pattern is such that precipitation is being inhibited and moisture is being staunched at the Gulf. This will lead to more quiet weather tomorrow, however as the surface ridge sinks south, baroclinicity will arrive across the region, importing some moisture from the monsoon. This isn’t going to lead to a lot of wet weather, but some rain and clouds are possible overnight Monday into Tuesday. Expect a breezier day on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with some late rain, High 79, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, with some early showers, High 79, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. (PM storms), High 78, Low 53
Tuesday – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 81, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then turning cloudy High 77, Low 54
Tuesday – Beautiful with periods of clouds and sun High 79, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 54
Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 80, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 77, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. High 80, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with isolated storms, High 80, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 78, Low 56
Tuesday – Possible light rain in the morning. High 79, Low 60

It’s fun when there is a variety to the precipitation forecasts. We’ll see how it plays out! Not much on satellite right now, but it will likely change in the next 48 hours.