St. Louis, Missouri

Night time forecasts are where the fun is!

At 1151PM, CT, St. Louis was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with clear skies. St. Louis was between two major systems tonight, with Hurricane Nicholas sliding along the Texas Coast to the south, and a fall like area of low pressure moving through the western Great Lakes overnight tonight. High pressure will keep St. Louis dry at least through the morning.
Nicholas will spiral eastward after landfalling, while the cold front from the northern feature will sink south. The boundary will pass through St. Louis late in the evening on Tuesday, with isolated thunderstorms continuing until after midnight. The full impact of this front will be blunted by Nicholas intercepting a lot of the moisture attempting to filter northward. Wednesday looks pretty OK after the morning showers clear out.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms in the evening, High 90, Low 72
Wednesday – Morning rain, then clearing, High 81, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then increasing clouds with some scattered thunderstorms later in the day. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 90, Low 70
Wednesday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 81, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm and humid with times of clouds and sunshine; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside (late storms) High 89, Low 71
Wednesday – Humid; cloudy in the morning, then intervals of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon (early storms) High 81, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, (late storms) High 90, Low 71
Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 82, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (Late storms), High 89, Low 71
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 90, Low 71
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 83, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the evening. High 91, Low 70
Wednesday – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 81, Low 65

It will be interesting to see how ardently this front moves through. There is definitely a change to the airmass late in the week for St. Louis, but there might not be as much of a show to get there as one might typically expect. You can see the peripheries of both features on satellite.

Jackson, Mississippi

The weekend is almost through, and of course, there is more action in the Gulf of Mexico. Will it find it’s way towards Mississippi to begin this work week?

At 754PM, CT, Jackson was reporting a temperature of 76 degrees with fair skies. Dew points were high across the region, but wind should be strong enough that fog doesn’t settle in across the region overnight. The northern edge of the sphere of Nicholas’s influence is visibly over southern Mississippi, and the threat of showers and storms will return early tomorrow, when daily insolation gets started.
Model guidance is, at this moment, dangerously disparate. Some guidance drives the storm into southern Texas, and leaves Jackson unbothered. The preponderance of information out there has the storm bounce a bit to the east and hold together until landfall further north, near Houston. In this eventuality, heavy rain will arrive late on Tuesday. This seems like the most likely outcome, unfortunately, and rain, often heavy, will be kept in the forecast.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 84, Low 70
Tuesday – Increasing rain, heavy late, high 82, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. High 84, Low 71
Tuesday – Considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. High 82, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 84, Low 71
Tuesday – Cloudy and humid; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 84, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 71
Tuesday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – 40% chance of rain showers, High 82, Low 72
Tuesday – Slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 84, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 83, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 82, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and overcast throughout the day. High 83, Low 70
Tuesday – Rain in the evening. High 82, Low 70

It’s going to be interesting to see exactly where Nicholas wanders off to. There is even some speculation on it’s pace. Generally, there isn’t much certainty. You can see it’s outer reaches in southern Mississippi below.

Redding, California

As is definitely the case across the west, northern California continues to withstand one of the worst droughts the country has seen, perhaps since the Dust Bowl. The fire season has been particularly devastating just to the south of Redding in recent years. With that as a backdrop, lets hope for weather that is favorable to fire fighting efforts.

At 653AM, PT, Redding was reporting clear skies wit smoke and a temperature of 69 degrees. Dew points in the Central Valley were higher than most northern Californians are accustomed to, hanging out in the mid 60s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, thanks to a short waved low rotating through southern Oregon. Unfortunately, it looks backed by more energy than moisture, and as a result, red flag warnings are out for the northern California Sierras, as lightning may touch off more fires.
After the energetic bundle shifts out, the exit region of an upper level jet will remain in place along the Oregon/California border. High clouds will dot the skies of northern California, while cool, autumnal conditions will be just out of reach. Flow will be from the west, which will hopefully allow some smoke in the region to clear.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 62
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow -A mainly sunny sky. High 92, Low 65
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 95, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot; smoke from area fires will lead to poor air quality High 94, Low 62
Sunday – Sunshine and hot; possible danger of dehydration and heat stroke while doing strenuous activities High 97, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 93, Low 65
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 65
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 65
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow- Clear throughout the day. High 95, Low 70
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 97, Low 66

Here is the morning satellite imagery from Redding. It’s pretty cloudy to the north, and it’s tough to pick out individual smoke plumes. The smoke is there though.

Columbia, South Carolina

It’s a two forecast day here on September 8th. Let’s see if we can forecast better here than in Florida.

At 1056PM, ET, Columbia was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 72. A slow moving cold front lay across the South Carolina Upstate, and was inching southeastward. Showers and storms have mostly wound down for the night, but the boundary’s presence will not allow anyone to take more rain out of the forecast.
Tropical Storm Mindy sits over the northeastern Gulf, and will track toward the Carolinas by tomorrow afternoon, forecast to take a path south of Charleston, if it holds together as well as some guidance projects. Regardless of the storm’s strength tomorrow, there will be an increased threat of rain and storms with isolated tornadoes as circulation passes south of Columbia. On the positive side, the organization will help clear the region out more swiftly, and Friday looks like a dry day.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms. Tornadoes possible in the area, High 84, Low 70
Friday – Becoming sunny, High 84, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early then scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 81, Low 70
Friday – Partly cloudy skies. High 83, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers; humid High 83, Low 72
Friday – Beautiful with times of clouds and sun High 84, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 72
Friday – Sunny, High 86, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. High 82, Low 72
Friday – Sunny, High 82, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 84, Low 72
Friday -Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 70
Friday – Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 63

I feel pretty confident that there will be showers and storms in Columbia tomorrow, to some degree. It appears our computer overlords at Forecast.io disagree. Showers are winding down for the evening.

Tampa, Florida

We’re headed to Florida for the second time in a row, and headed a bit closer to the ocean. Can you believe people live in cities that don’t touch the sea in Florida?

At 353PM, ET, Tampa was reporting a temperature of 93 degrees with mostly sunny skies. The interaction of three primary features will dictate the weather through the end of the work week in Tampa: Hurricane Larry in the north Atlantic, surface feature southwest of Tallahassee, and low pressure in eastern Canada. At this time Larry and the tropical low are helping steer much moisture away from Tampa, and south Florida is fairly clear this afternoon, aside from patchy clouds near the coasts.
Larry and the low in the Gulf will interact with the Canadian feature, which is presently dangling a cold front through the southeastern US. The boundary will tap into the moisture of the low, and increase the thunderstorm threat tomorrow in Tampa. Larry will stall the boundary over the Atlantic, and turn to be subsumed by the Canadian Low. This will cause the boundary to stall across Florida, but will also interrupt the length of the boundary. Forward momentum and shear will be lost, but some scattered showers and storms will still be able to tap into the sea breeze and local moisture on Friday.
Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, High 89, Low 78
Friday – Isolated storms, High 89, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 86, Low 78
Friday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 88, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a thunderstorm; breezy High 87, Low 78
Friday – Widely separated morning thunderstorms; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 89, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 88, Low 78
Friday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 89, Low 77

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 86, Low 78
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms High 88, Low 77

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 86, Low 76
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 89, Low 76

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 77
Friday – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 77

I think a lot o these forecasts are too cool for tomorrow. I don’t think it will be as rainy as many suspect, and it hit the 90s today. We shall see. Here is the local satellite, with low pressure in the northeast Gulf, and clouds ringing the peninsula.

Gainesville, Florida

Hey gang! Happy Labor Day, I hope you are enjoying this last breath of summer. Of course, it goes along with the first real weekend of college football, so one foot in the summer, one in the fall, and I think Gainesville is a good nexus for that. Warmth and college football.

At 1253AM, ET, Gainesville was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 75 degrees. Generally pleasant conditions were in place across the Sunshine state, with a few spots of clouds. Morning haze is probably on the horizon, given the typically high dew points and the clear overnight conditions. Low pressure was present in the Gulf of Mexico, but it doesn’t pose a likely tropical threat.
Flow, however, was derived in part from the low in the Gulf, and was associated with via a long range of baroclinicity, with a system in Canadian Maritimes. The southwest to northeast flow is going to be a fixture over north Florida for the week. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase later in the week, but some pop up afternoon storms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday as well.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with isolated thunderstorms, High 92, Low 72
Tuesday – Scattered showers with thunderstorms, High 91, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 89, Low 71
Tuesday – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine High 88, Low 71
Tuesday – Sun and some clouds with a thunderstorm in a couple of spots in the afternoon High 88, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 69
Tuesday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, sunny, High 90, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 88, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunny in the morning then partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 88, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, High 90, Low 70
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, High 90, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 72
Tuesday – Possible light rain in the evening. High 87, Low 73

All of us are dancing around the same numbers. I am going warmer this afternoon, but others don’t believe the guidance like me. Anywho, here is the satellite imagery for this evening across Florida. Not much that far south.

Madera, California

We’re off to the central Valley of California today, to reexamine one of the ongoing hardships wrought upon our planet this summer. Drought continues in California, with fires east of the Madera area. Is there hope on the way?

At 1153AM, PT, Madera was reporting sunny skies and a temperature of 87 degrees. There was a heat advisory in place for the central Valley and the southern California high country along the Nevada border was under an excessive heat watch. High pressure on the west coast was particularly robust and allowing of the abnormal heat.
Low pressure is spiraling independently in the eastern Pacific, and it will give a guide to the shape of the surface ridge through the next couple of days. It will ride well off shore north to the Gulf of Alaska low and begin to merge with that feature. the ridge in the west will change generally unchanged, but the onshore will carry over the Coastal Range and only make it hotter by Monday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 101, Low 58
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine High 102, Low 58
Monday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 104, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 103, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, high 98, Low 61
Monday – Mostly sunny and hot High 101, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 99, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 102, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 98, Low 63
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 101, Low 67

A look at the satellite imagery shows smoke in the clouds across the Sierras, but not much in the way of onshore cloud cover.

Hinesville, Georgia

The coast of Georgia seems to be growing as a tourist destination. Now that we are headed to the autumn, it’s time to start thinking about going some place war.

At 836PM, ET, Hinesville was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with partly cloudy skies. The remnant Ida remains impactful over the mid – Atlantic, where tornado watches are bracketing the New York City area, but as it reaches the higher latitudes, it is demonstrating traits of a subtropical low, including a ranging cold front that slides south of the Brunswick area. Showers and thunderstorms are seen as near as Valdosta, but is moving away from Hinesville.
The boundary is expected to act as a barrier to onshore flow for the remainder of the work week. Expect a mostly sunny start to September, though the stalled boundary, which will be over north Florida Thursday and Friday, will lead to some waves of clouds in Hinesville.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 89, Low 72
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 89, Low 72
Friday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 86, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun High 89, Low 74
Friday – Partly sunny; noticeably less humid than recent days High 87, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 71
Friday – Sunny, High 89, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 88, Low 74
Friday – Sunny, High 85, Low 71

WN: tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 90, Low 71
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 73
Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 68

I think the storm activity will stay to the south of Hinesville, but it appears to be a point of contention among the various outlets. Here is a look at the satellite, showing some storms in south Georgia.

Hickory, North Carolina

The weekend is fast approaching, and I think that is one thing everyone can come to appreciate. How much, exactly, will Hickorians (?) appreciate the weather this weekend?

At 1053AM, ET, Hickory was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees. Clear skies were reported across the region, however some fog and low clouds appeared in the valleys closer to Asheville. A band of mid and high clouds was seen along and southeast of a line from Greenville to Fayetteville. High pressure was otherwise seizing the day in the Mid Atlantic.
There is some weak baroclinicity, which will organize a bit over the weekend outside the mouth of Chesapeake Bay, but the story everyone will be watching is the rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Ida, which will be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday evening, likely to make landfall southeast of Lafayette late on Sunday, after lingering just off shore for the weekend, with potentially disastrous side effects. Hor Hickory, this will function to remove moisture or conflicting flow into the region, and will lead to sun and clear skies, which probably means some toasty conditions.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warm with haze and fog early, High 94, Low 70
Sunday – Sunny and hot with morning clouds and fog, High 95, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 92, Low 69
Sunday – Sunny skies. High 93, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and very warm High 93, Low 68,
Sunday – Mostly sunny and warm with the temperature approaching the record of 94 set in 2007 High 93, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, High 93, Low 69
Sunday – Sunny, High 94, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning, Sunny. High 91, Low 70
Sunday – Sunny, High 92, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow = Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 69
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 94, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 89, Low 67
Sunday – Humid throughout the day. High 89, Low 65

Hurricane Ida will definitely make headlines this weekend, but her presence will ensure the Carolinas have sunny skies this weekend. Satellite now shows some general clouds in the southeastern part of the state, and lingering fog in the mountains.

Spokane, Washington

When people think of Washington, most, I believe, think about Seattle, Tacoma and the Puget Sound area. Rainy and glum for a lot of the year. That is now what you should expect in eastern Washington, though. Let’s take a look at the biggest town in Washington east of the Cascades.

At 1053AM, PT, Spokane was reporting a temperature of 67 with mostly cloudy skies. An unusual feature has set up in the northwest: a cool area of surface high pressure. A trough aloft was opening the door for cooler air to fill in, but in the short term, surface reflection, aside from the temperatures, was not anticipated. Flow was stout enough from the west that fires in Oregon were not impacting air quality as much as they have recently.
The upper level trough is low amplitude and broad, but a lobe of vorticity will sneak down from British Columbia late on Friday. This will lead to some breezier conditions and some clouds, but will also help to usher the trough out of town. Importantly, this will also help temperatures start on the rise again for the weekend, but through the forecast period, it will be pleasant.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 57
Friday – Partly to mostly cloudy with some breeze, High 73, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon High 77, Low 54
Friday – Partly cloudy. High 74, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Comfortable with partial sunshine (late rain) High 76, Low 55
Friday – Pleasant with sunshine and some clouds (Early rain) High 72, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (ate rain),High 78, Low 55
Friday – Partly sunny (Early rain), High 73, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, Haze in the morning (Late rain). High 74,Low 55
Friday – Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain, High 72, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 55
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 80, Low 54
Friday – Partly cloudy throughout the day.High 79, Low 56

We found the right time to go to Spokane, didn’t we? A look at the satellite shows some smoke plumes out of Oregon.