Muskegon, Michigan

Today seems to be an interesting day in the weather department, particularly in western Michigan. How interesting? Why don’t we find out?

At 1155AM, ET, despite a stiff breeze off of Lake Michigan, Muskegon was reporting 87 degrees, clear skies and a dew point of 70. While the heat was oppressive nearly everywhere, the instability was mounting. A area of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies extended a weak stationary boundary towards Hudson Bay, and it appears that this is the perfect vehicle for a severe outbreak tonight.
Tomorrow, the stationary front will begin to sink southward as a slow moving cold front, which will bring in more comfortable and more stable air, but before that on Saturday, another similar looking squall line will role through Michigan with a little more intensity than the one that will arrive late tonight. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible, particularly tomorrow afternoon, with lighter rain in the evening. Clouds will linger through the morning on Sunday, however they will clear to the south, and much more moderate air will take over western Michigan to conclude the weekend.
Tomorrow – Clouds, with rain and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening, High 86, Low 72
Sunday – Early clouds then clearing and pleasant, High 80, low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning followed by scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 86, Low 73
Sunday – Overcast with rain showers at times. High 82, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness, warm, very humid; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm around High 86, Low 75
Sunday – A passing morning shower; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 82, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 87, Low 76
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny, High 82, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 84, low 73
Sunday – Partly sunny until midday, then becoming mostly sunny. A 40 percent chance on showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 87, Low 77
Sunday – Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 82, Low 69

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain tomorrow evening. High 88, Low 73
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, Low 69

This is the rare non-standard day in the heat of summer. Tonight, the temperature will only get down to about 80 degrees, which is uncomfortable.

Deltona, Florida

With all the focus on the 50th anniversary of the Moon Landing, I think that a trip to the Space Coast and a rapidly developing town near Cape Canaveral is very appropriate.

At 336PM, ET, Deltona was reporting a temperature of 88 degrees, and thunderstorms in the vicinity. In fact, they were reporting lightning from all quadrants. It paints a more aggressive picture than what radar indicates. but there is a band of storms south and east of town that is the most robust.
It’s that time of year for Florida, in which the dynamics are very small scale, reliant on the temperature profiles of see and land as opposed to any broad scale waves. Indeed, Deltona is going to be answerable only to the day time seabreezes as opposed to any broad scale flow pattern. Expect carbon copies of the next two days, with thunderstorms fairly likely, thanks to Deltona’s position set inland.
Tomorrow – Scattered PM thunderstorms, High 95, low 77
Saturday – Scattered PM Thunderstorms, High 95, Low 77

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning followed by scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon high 92, Low 75
Saturday – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 93, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds High 92, Low 75
Saturday – Partly sunny, a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 93, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot, High 95, Low 77
Saturday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny and hot, High 96, Low 77

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon, High 91, Low 78
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon, High 90, low 78

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 93, Low 76
Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 95, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 93, Low 76
Saturday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 94, Low 75

Hot and humid. Exactly what we want from Florida in July. Here is a look at the radar in central Florida.

Huntsville, Alabama

My favorite weather related fun fact about Huntsville is that it is the Weather Service office with the smallest geographic footprint. This is because of the preponderance of severe weather, but also because of the historic technical aptitude and home of the space program.

At 853AM, CT, Huntsville was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 75 degrees. More importantly, they were also reporting a dew point of 72, ensuring that the morning would have a fairly damp feel, thanks to lingering fog and morning dew and condensation. There was a weak pressure trough in central Tennessee that was kicking up clouds across the region, but they are expected to shift swiftly out of the area, rendering the Huntsville area, along with most of the southeast, extremely warm for the rest of the day.
Low pressure is camped out in eastern Canada and the north Atlantic, without any real plans to leave. This will force a steady southwesterly flow, drawing Gulf moisture through the already sultry air, leaving a persistent threat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the region. These are likely to be a blessing, as they should relive some of the heat.
Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, High 91, Low 72
Saturday – Scattered thunderstorms, High 89, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.High 91, Low 73
Saturday – Scattered thunderstorms High 87, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (PM storms) High 91, low 73
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sun, a couple of thunderstorms around High 87, low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny high 94, Low 74
Saturday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny High 93, low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon High 90, Low 77
Saturday – Partly cloudy, scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning and numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, high 88, low 77

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, high 94, low 74
Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms, High 93, Low 74

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain tomorrow evening.High 90, Low 74
Saturday – Possible light rain in the evening. High 87, Low 73

the GFS and NAM are fairly different in temperature forecasting, and there is a similar discrepancy in forecasts. The NAM is warmer, suggesting fewer storms, but the GFS anticipates more cloud cover. Which will play out? I split the difference, like a coward. Here is that satellite, showing the current clouds in Tennessee and north Alabama.

Tyler, Texas

Hi friends! I hope the holiday weekend left you recharged to attack the workweek. I think mine just made me want another week off!

At 953AM, CT, Tyler was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with sunny skies. Dew points were sultry, sitting in the mid to upper 70s across the region, feuling a surprisingly robust cluster of thunderstorms in southwest Arkansas, with some storms developing southwest into Texas, where a couple of cells were popping up just to the north of Tyler, and Gilmer was reporting thunder.
A very weak perturbation at the mid levels is sweeping through the region, beneath a similarly low powered ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley. This is enough to give some semblance of organization to the thunderstorm activity across the area, however widespread convection is likely across the southeast this afternoon as broadscale northwesterly flow trails some weak rotation centered over the Carolinas. Tyler will be at the western edge of this convective activity through mid afternoon tomorrow, and a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. As low pressure organizes a bit over north Florida, and gets entrained with a trough over the Gulf Stream, The northwesterly flow will subside in Texas, but so too will the stream of moisture towards Tyler. Expect a hot and humid day on Tuesday, but without the threat for rain.
Tomorrow – Hot and partly cloudy with an isolated thunderstorm, High 94, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, hot High 95, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 76
Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 95, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; humid High 93, Low 75
Tuesday – Partial sunshine; humid High 94, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 93, Low 76
Tuesday – Sunny, High 94, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 93, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 94, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny,, High 94, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day.High 91, Low 73
Tuesday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 72

Guidance has already proven to be a bit too cool today, so I’m anticipating that to continue for the next couple of days. It looks like The Weather Channel and I are the only two on that bandwagon, as well as the threat for storms tomorrow. They ARE tops in the standings so far this year, so I think I picked a good partner. Here is radar, with a couple of storms popping up to the north.

Gulfport, Mississippi

If you haven’t ever been to Gulfport, or know where it is located, Gulfport is a port on the Gulf.

At 853AM, CT, Gulfport was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with clear skies. It’s the season for light off shore convection, and indeed, there is already some off the Mississippi Delta. These Gulf Coast storms tend to be more widespread than anticipated in model guidance, and an intense rain shower cannot be ruled out today.
In the parlance, the Gulf is “open” meaning there is little to no counterflow to sea breezes, and sultry air is free to invade the coastal areas. This tends to mean that in the afternoon, there will be enough instability for occasional showers and thunderstorms, particularly a few miles inland where the sea breeze loses momentum, with storms then drifting back towards the coast as the sun sets. This will probably be the pattern each of the next two days in Gulfport, and truly, the entire Gulf Coast.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a few thunderstorms, High 93, Low 76
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a few thunderstorms, High 95, Low 76

TWC: Tomorrow – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90, Low 76
Thursday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 93, low 77

AW: Tomorrow = Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 92, low 76
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 95, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny High 91, Low 76
Thursday – Mostly sunny, high 93, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 91, low 75
Thursday – Sunny in the morning then partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 93, low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 92, low Low 77
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 77

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, low 78
Thursday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 93, Low 78

Hot. Humid. Mississippi. Here is some of this morning’s off shore convection on radar.

Casper, Wyoming

As temperatures are expected to soar here in the Upper Midwest this weekend, let’s venture to the Rockies and take a peek at how things will pan out in Central Wyoming!

At 1120pm MDT, the temperature at Casper, WY was 61 degrees under fair skies. Low pressure found over the Northern High Plains will shift its way into Central Canada throughout the day Saturday, trailing a boundary back into the Great Basin. Luckily for Casper, the main focus of any precip will be over the Dakotas as hot, humid air streams northward into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, kicking up storms off to the east. Low pressure that develops over the Great Basin Saturday shifts into the Central Rockies on Sunday. This increased cloud clover will bring much lower temps during the day, and as the overall boundary sags a bit southward, chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening increases.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 57.
Sunday: Increasing clouds and cooler. Possible evening thunderstorms. High 81, Low 54.

TWC: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 55.
Sunday: Cloudy, isolated showers. High 80, Low 54.

AW: Saturday: Partly sunny; hot. High 91, Low 55.
Sunday: Mainly cloudy; not as warm. High 80, Low 52.

NWS: Saturday: Sunny then mostly sunny and breezy. High 91, Low 53.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy then chance of thunderstorms. High 85, Low 59.

WB: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 89, Low 58.
Sunday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 77, Low 53.

WN: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 91, Low 53.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 85, Low 59.

FIO: Saturday: Foggy, then partly cloudy. High 93, Low 63.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day, isolated showers. High 83, Low 58.

We see a fairly quiet pattern over Wyoming, while a thunderstorm complex is keeping things interesting along the Canadian border.

Nashville, Tennessee

The Music City is our stop for this forecast. I think it’s an unfair sobriquet, frankly, because while Nashville is the home of Country Music, Memphis, just down the road, has a lot of jazz and blues history, as well as Graceland and Elvis. Gosh darn it, Tennessee should just be the Music State.

At 853AM, CT, Nashville was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees, even at this early hour. A remnant vorticity maximum was bringing thunderstorms to western Tennessee, though more broadly, the Tennessee Valley was under a broad ridge of high pressure.
After the vort max subsides, It will be warm high pressure taking hold in central Tennessee. Generally speaking, this usually means isolated showers and storms in the summertime, and that will be no different tomorrow and especially Saturday. It will be more active to the north, synoptically, but scattered afternoon showers and storms are more likely than not throughout the southeast.
Tomorrow – Stuffy, with a chance of afternoon showers and storms, High 88, low 70
Saturday – A little clearer, but still a threat for afternoon thunder, High 90, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 92, Low 69
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 94, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a thunderstorm High 91, Low 69
Saturday – Partly sunny, warm; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 92, low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 92, Low 69
Saturday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 92, low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 89, Low 70
Saturday – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 90, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 92, Low 69
Saturday – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 92, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain tomorrow evening. High 91, Low 70
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, low 72

Here are the scattered storms over western Tennessee. Expect a lot less organization as the weekend rolls around.

Dubuque, Iowa

Yes! We are forecasting for the same city in Iowa twice in a week. Anthony and I are operating on slightly different calendars, and there was overlap this week. Which of us does Dubuque best?

At 853AM, CT, Dubuque was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 63 degrees. Winds from the east were picking up, feeding into a line of very strong thunderstorms that were barreling down I-80, passing through Marshalltown on their way to Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. The heaviest activity will remain south of Dubuque, but Dubuque won’t be completely unscathed when all is said and done.
The line of storms is a true derecho, following a stationary front that runs south of Dubuque towards Missouri and into Kentucky and Tennessee. The northwestern part of the boundary is poised to lift further north as an area of low pressure moves through Iowa, reinvigorating the chance for showers and storms later this evening. The low that lifts north is just a mild perturbation in a broader, progressively weakening system in the northern Plains. The weakening of this parent low means that clearing will be slow to come to Deubuque, and this weekend will be plagued by chances of rain throughout the weekend as the system occludes over eastern Iowa. There may be a stray thunderstorm embedded within showers.
Tomorrow- Overcast with rain and some thunderstorms, High 74, Low 56
Sunday – Rain, heavier and with embedded storms late, High 77, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day High 78, Low 57
Sunday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 80, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, humid; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 76, low 58
Sunday – Remaining cloudy, thunderstorms, strong late; humid High 80, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 74, Low 58
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likey, High 77, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 81, low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 72, Low 61
Sunday – Possible light rain throughout the day. High 80, Low 69

I’m a little cooler than most, especially on Sunday, but my logic is this: Rainy, cloudy days rarely happen when it’s 80 out. Here is the radar, with a line of storms screaming through southern Iowa.

Dubuque, Iowa

As we close in on the official start of Summer later this week, let’s take a look at how the Upper Midwest will fare over the next couple of days.

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at Dubuque, IA was 68 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A weak boundary continues to linger from Michigan through IA back into the Central Plains. It’s the focus of scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity and looks to remain so for tomorrow. There’s a chance of scattered shower activity during the daytime hours as it shifts away from the Dubuque area, while thunderstorm activity should remain off to the south. Thursday should be on the dry side as the aforementioned boundary shifts away and in advance of another low pressure system shifting into the Dakotas. There might be some shower activity on Friday, but not Thursday!

Wednesday: Scattered showers possible. High 71, Low 61.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and warmer. High 75, Low 56.

TWC: Wednesday: Morning showers. High 75, Low 63.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 77, Low 56.

AW: Wednesday: Cloudy, a touch of rain. High 72, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy; comfortable. High 75, Low 56.

NWS: Wednesday: Chance of showers. High 74, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 76, Low 57.

WB: Wednesday: Chance of storms. High 71, Low 63.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 57.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 74, Low 62.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 76, Low 57.

FIO: Wednesday: Light rain until afternoon. High 73, Low 64.
Thursday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 59.

There’s some light rain shower activity off to the west. We’ll see another day of this smattering of activity before things clear out.

Omaha, Nebraska

We are going to sneak on over to the home of the college World Series. This is the rare example of a previously assigned forecast working out with a big event in that town. The blog has only been around for a decade, sheesh.

At 952PM, CT, Omaha was reporting a temperature of 7 degrees with fair skies. Clouds associated with strong showers and thunderstorms have pulled into east Iowa, and Nebraska was nearly entirely devoid of clouds. A cold front swinging out of Canada intersected with weak low pressure in Iowa, and the localized circulation was doing an effective job of drawing clear, dry air into the Missouri Valley.
Father’s Day looks quite pleasant for Omaha as a result. A surface trough scooting through the Dakotas may touch off some showers in the north central part of the state, however the still lingering Canadian front will prevent moisture from really accessing the trough. Clouds will increase in the evening, but Monday doesn’t look terrible either.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 63
Monday – Increasing clouds, High 80, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds from time to time High 88, Low 65
Monday – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 83, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun; nice High 85, Low 65
Monday – Times of clouds and sun; nice High 80, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, high 83, Low 63
Monday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, high 80, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 65
Monday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 80, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 63
Monday – Parly cloudy with isolated storms, High 81, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 65
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 79, Low 59

Here is the very pretty satellite for Omaha, which is missing any clouds over eastern Nebraska.