Longview, Texas

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

The middle of the week has been rife with severe weather. There is more in the mid-Atlantic, but things are finally beginning to look a bit more relaxed. How relaxed in east Texas?

At 1153AM, CT, Longview was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 73. The lingering boundary that has been a significant weather maker in the southeast this week now lay from Jacksonville, Florida to a secondary surface feature southeast of Texarkana. A band of showers and storms has slid southeast of Longview, but a batch of showers continues near Dallas, and a dry afternoon is unlikely.
There is a low level perturbation seated over southern Missouri that is going to continue to enhance shower and storm activity through the day tomorrow. The more significant jet streak is shifting to the east, with a weak ridge snuffing out the weak low in the south central US. Further bringing about some stability to east Texas is a surface system developing in the Front Range late Saturday, shifting into central Plains on Sunday. This will lead to rising heat and humidity, but clearer conditions, with only a couple of pop up thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 83, Low 73
Sunday – Clearing and warmer with isolated showers, High 90, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Cloudy skies late. High 83, Low 72
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy. High 88, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83, Low 73
Sunday – Humid with sunshine and some clouds; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 90, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 7am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny High 90, Low 74
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 83, Low 75
Sunday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy High 89, Low 74

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm High 83, Low 75
Sunday – Thunderstorm High 90, Low 75

Undersold is that with the low pressure developing to the north, it will also be fairly breezy in Longview on Sunday. Just hot wind. Here’s the diminishing storm activity, depicted on radar!

South Bend, Indiana

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

As a proud grad of Purdue University, I will very begrudgingly issue this forecast. Buckle up, it could be a fun one.

At 1003PM, ET, South Bend was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A band of showers and storms had moved into the eastern part of the state, leaving a humid night for northern Indiana. This should leave the area primed for more sultry conditions tomorrow.
There won’t be a triggering mechanism, save for the latent heat and humidity for tomorrow, but that could be enough for a few stray storms in the afternoon, none of which are likely to be severe. Another band of storms will arrive overnight with a perturbation associated with an area of low pressure moving east through the Canadian Prairies. This complex will hit around midnight and last into the wee hours. The next threat of storms is going to be better organized, and more closely tied to a cold front. This will arrive 24 hours after the first batch, close to midnight Thursday into Friday.
Tomorrow – Afternoon showers and storms, with more action overnight, High 92, Low 73
Thursday – Predawn showers, then storms late, High 89, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 93, Low 72
Thursday – Mostly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. Some of the storms may become severe. Damaging winds, large hail and possibly a tornado with some storms. High 88, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow -Partly sunny, hot and humid; breezy in the afternoon High 90, Low 71
Thursday – Remaining very warm and humid with periods of clouds and sunshine; severe weather expected at night; be alert and have a way to receive warnings High 89. Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of thunderstorms after 4pm. Partly sunny and hot, High 91, Low 68
Thursday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny and hot, High 90, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91, Low 76
Thursday – Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 86, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms, High 90, Low 70
Thursday – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms, High 90, Low 72

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers High 91, Low 69
Thursday – Thunderstorm High 91, Low 71

You can see a band of storms drifting into Ohio. Get used to looking at this, South Bend.

Houston, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I hope everyone is planning a wonderful time outside for Memorial Day Weekend. It’s the beginning of the warmth up north, and probably the last time it won’t be too hot down south.

At 853PM, CT, Houston was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees. Moisture in the atmosphere was high, after rain this afternoon. There will likely be some fog and low clouds overnight. The bulk of the rainfall has shifted towards the Mississippi Delta, however a weak upper level trough remains over east Texas, which means that there won’t be any real clearing tomorrow.
With the trough hanging out in eastern Texas will continue to generate cyclonic flow in the western Gulf. Showers with some embedded thunderstorms will be more frequent and wider in coverage over Louisiana, on the east side of the circulation, but lingering moisture and scattered showers will remain a possibility throughout the remainder of the holiday weekend, with precipitation more likely Sunday than Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers and fog early, High 85, Low 69
Memorial Day – Partly cloudy with AM fog and afternoon showers, High 88, low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 88, Low 68
Memorial Day – Partly cloudy skies High 89, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; watch for flash flooding High 83, Low 71
Memorial Day – Variable cloudiness with a thunderstorm High 88, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Partly sunny High 82, Low 70
Memorial Day – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon High 83, Low 69
Memorial Day – Mostly sunny. High 87, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 82, Low 70
Memorial Day – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storm, High 85, Low 71

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 84, Low 68
Memorial Day – Sunny, High 85, low 71

There is close correlation between precipitation and temperature forecasts the next couple of days. There will be some wild differences in our verification scores! Precipitation has moved all the way over the Louisiana.

Jacksonville, Florida

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

The forecast wheel spun and took us back to the southeast. We are off to Duval County tonight.

At 856PM, ET, Jacksonville was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees and mostly cloudy skies. Isolated storms have emerged over the center of the state, but they were dying with darkness. There is a bit of a jet streak over the Northern Gulf that is presently leading to some of the activity, however there is broad trade activity developing in the region.
Deep low pressure in the Plains is also contributing to moisture transport across the Florida Peninsula. The region will be cloudy at the very least tomorrow, with a considerable threat for a pop up shower or storm, particularly in the afternoon. As the surface pressure reorganizes in the southern US on Monday, activity will diminish in the Jacksonville area.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 87, Low 64
Monday – Sunny, High 86, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 87, Low 74
Monday – Sun and a few passing clouds High 86, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; a thundershower in spots in the morning followed by a couple of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 87, Low 73
Monday – Times of clouds and sun High 87, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 73
Monday – Mostly sunny High 85, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 85, Low 76
Monday – Sunny. High 82, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 87, Low 73
Monday – Mostly Sunny, High 86, Low 71

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm High 86, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy High 85, Low 66

Varying opinions on storms tomorrow. Makes sense, I think they will be isolated. But alas, it’s Florida. It storms. Such as it is tonight.

Anniston, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our forecast this evening will take us to the South. It’s been cool this May. Does that apply to Alabama?

At 953PM, CT, Anniston was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 67 degrees. The area lay southeast of a cold front sliding listlessly through the Mississippi Valley, which accounted for a southerly flow in the region. The boundary will be reenergized by the daylight tomorrow.
The boundary will arrive in Alabama tomorrow, with showers and thunderstorms likely. There is some disagreement on the timing for Anniston, but no doubt that the storm chances are high. The batch of energy will slow down, with clouds and rain hanging on through mid-morning, followed by a much cooler day on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Afternoon rain and thunder High 81, Low 64
Thursday – Rain early, then clearing and colder High 73, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy in the morning then strong thunderstorms developing later in the day. Damaging winds, large hail and possibly a tornado with some storms. High 77, Low 64
Thursday – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. Cooler. High 72, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and humid; an afternoon thunderstorm High 75, Low 63
Thursday – A brief morning shower or two; otherwise, cloudy High 71, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 10am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10am and 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 63
Thursday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 75, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.  High 80, Low 69
Thursday – Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the morning then partly sunny with a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 71, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms High 82, Low 63
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms High 75, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm High 80, Low 63
Thursday – Light rain showers High 74, Low 55

There is an enhanced risk for severe storms in central Alabama tomorrow with this boundary. The front is pretty sloppy tonight, and things are clear in Anniston.

Logan, Utah

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We are headed to the Utah Panhandle for our forecast today. Have you ever been?

At 151PM, MT, Logan was reporting light rain, and a temperature of 43 degrees. A deep trough aloft has helped generate a strong area of cyclonic flow centered over northern New Mexico. Scattered showers are widespread across the Central Rockies, with snow common at elevation. Logan is on the back side of the feature, and is enduring the cooler wet weather.
Despite the surface feature intensifying and shifting towards the Great Lakes, moisture will remain strewn through the Rockies, riding the northern flank of the jet. Spots of rain will be in the forecast through the day tomorrow but ultimately, the vigorous jet is the culprit, and will carry most of the moisture at altitude. Rain and snow will thin vertically, and Tuesday morning will be dry in Logan, but not in the Wasatch.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, scattered showers, High 51, Low 35
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, clearing, High 56, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. High 52, Low 33
Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day High 55, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Cool with intervals of clouds and sun; widely separated afternoon thundershowers High 52, Low 33
Tuesday -A shower in the area in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 55, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow -Rain showers likely before 9am, then rain and snow showers likely between 9am and noon, then rain showers likely after noon. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, High 52, Low33
Tuesday – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Partly sunny High 56, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow -Snow showers in the morning then snow showers rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Accumulation 1 inch High 43, Low 33
Tuesday -A chance of snow showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning then a chance of snow showers rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 47, Low 33

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a light wintry mix and isolated storms. High 52, Low 33
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 56, Low 32

CLI: Tomorrow – Heavy snow showers High 50, Low 32
Tuesday – Light rain showers High 53, Low 31

There is some variability on the end time for precipitation. I feel as though the position at the var northern end of Utah will isolate Logan a bit from the steering flow and dry them out a bit. Only one way to find out. It is quite wet tonight, however.

Brownsville, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed to the Rio Grande for our forecast tonight. It’s been a while since we have issued a forecast for Texas, and today, we are going as far south into Texas as we can get.

At 953PM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with cloudy skies. The air was soupy, with dew points in the mid-70s. It is getting deep enough into the spring that the course of the jet has lifted to the north. Flow is through the the Gulf and into low pressure in the Canadian Prairie, giving rise to the local humidity.
A deeper trough is going to develop over the Desert Southwest before rotating north into the Central Plains. A cold front will drape through the Plains, and present a severe threat for the Ozarks, in particular, however for interests around Brownsville, it will mean continued warmth and humidity, with clouds early, and some coastal fog.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 91, Low 75
Sunday – Mostly Cloudy, High 94, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. Areas of patchy fog. High 89, Low 76
Sunday – Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Areas of patchy fog. High 90, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and humid High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Humid with clouds and sun; breezy in the afternoon High 91, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 90, Low 77
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny High 91, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny High 89, Low 75
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 90. Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 88, Low 76
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 76

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 89, Low 75
Sunday – Partly cloudy High 90, Low 76

Oof. Does anyone have a lemonade? Cloudy skies in the South Texas morning.

Fayetteville, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed down to the Carolinas today. As things get warmer, weather is starting to get more convective. Will that be the case in North Carolina?

At 1010AM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting scattered clouds and a westerly breeze gusting to about 20mph. Elsewhere in the area, dew points of over 60 were leading to some haze, which the wind was doing a good job of scouring. There is a boundary to the west of the Appalachians that is in the process of fading, but has done an effective job of drawing warm moist air into the Carolina coastal plains.
That boundary is fading as low pressure deepens in the northern Plains. This will reinforce both the jet ridge over the east coast, and the warm, oceanic air in Fayetteville. Clouds will increase with the temperature, but a dry couple of days are anticipated.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 59
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. high 89, Low 60
Wednesday – Generally sunny. Near record high temperature High 92, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and very warm with the temperature tying the record high from 1922 High 92, Low 59
Wednesday – Partly sunny and hot with the temperature approaching the record high of 95 set in 2006; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 94, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 89, Low 61
Wednesday – Sunny, High 92, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 86, Low 65
Wednesday – Sunny hot High 89, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 89, Low 61
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 64

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 58
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 61

Easy peasy. Satellite shows some scattered clouds across the southeast.

Baltimore, Maryland

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We have finally left California, and now we head to the opposite coast. We don’t see enough of Baltimore, if you ask me. The Inner Harbor is wonderful.

At 1054PM, ET, Baltimore was reporting a temperature of 43 degrees with clear skies. The DC and Baltimore reporting sites were anomolous to the region, with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s nearby. Clear skies and low dew points suggest that Baltimore will see a chilly morning tomorrow. There are freeze warnings out regionwide.
The pattern is conducive to a spring cool down, with a subtropical low in the Bight of Georgia and high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes. An upper level ridge is close behind, however, and while Wednesday will start cool, it will warm up nicely. Thursday looks like it could be spectacular.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 54, Low 30
Thursday – Sunny, High 62, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 54, Low 33
Thursday – Partly cloudy skies.  High 61, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun, but cool High 52, Low 32
Thursday – Times of clouds and sun High 58, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of frost before 9am. Otherwise, sunny High 53, Low 33
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 59, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of frost in the morning. Sunny.  High 50, Low 34
Thursday – Areas of frost in the morning. Mostly sunny High 54, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny with areas of frost, High 53, Low 33
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 38

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 54, Low 34
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 37

I’m the most optimistic about the power of insolation, it appears. Time will tell. Right now, clear skies on the coast, with clouds off shore.

Visalia, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our string of visits to California continues with a late visit to the central Valley.

At 956PM, PT, Visalia was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with clear skies. Dew points are in the 40s through the Valley, and even higher to the north, suggesting a chance for fog in the morning. The higher dew points and cooler evening temperatures are a result of very pleasant early April temperatures.
There is a jet streak running along the Mexican border that is bearing the load of keeping the oppressive heat at bay, while a strong ridge through the Pacific Northwest ensures that California will enjoy continued sunny skies from Easter into the beginning of the work week.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 51
Monday – Sunny, a bit of haze in the morning, High 85, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds High 89, Low 49
Monday – Partly cloudy skies. High 87, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and very warm with the temperature approaching the record high of 90 set in 1960 High 87, Low 48
Monday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 87, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 86, Low 51
Monday – Sunny High 86, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 87, Low 53
Monday – Sunny High 86, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 86, Low 52
Monday – Mostly Sunny, High 86, Low 54

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 49
Monday – Sunny, High 86, Low 52

Mid 80s compared to what had been seen recently out west does seem pretty manageable, despite, as Accuweather noted, these highs being close to records. There are some clouds in the Sierras, but a clear night elsewehre.