Category Archives: Forecast

Honolulu, Hawai’i

It’s not often we get this far away from home, but indeed, we are headed for the Islands for our forecast today. How different is life in Honolulu in the middle of the summer?

At 453 AM, Hawaiian time, Honolulu was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 75 degrees. The western islands were generally reporting overcast skies as a overnight band of showers shifted into the open Pacific, while areas exposed to the trades were generally a few degrees warmer. Northern exposures of all of the Hawaiian islands were under high surf advisories, as the remnants of Ferrnanda drifted east and north of the chain.
Fernanda will skirt the northern end of the islands through the early morning hours on Monday, elevating the surf on the north sides of the islands, while also bringing clouds and a chance of showers. The rain and thunder in the interior mountains of Oahu will continue through the early afternoon, with the sun returning without interference by evening. Tropical features are lining up in the eastern Pacific, but high pressure will stamp out any advance on the islands, while the storms will sap any moisture from the trades. Tuesday will be another great day in Hawai’i
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers and storms,HIgh 88, Low 76
Tuesday – Sunny and wonderful, High 90, low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 86, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies High 86, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sun with a couple of soaking showers; watch for rough surf and rip currents High 88, Low 76
Tuesday – Partly sunny; a shower or two in the morning followed by a shower in spots in the afternoon High 88, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Partly sunny, High 86, Low 75
Tomorrow- Isolated showers. Mostly sunny High 88, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. High 79, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning then scattered showers in the afternoon. High 81, Low 78

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 86, Low 75
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 90, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the morning and afternoon. High 85, Low 75
Tuesday – Partly cloudy until morning and breezy starting in the evening, continuing until night. High 85, Low 74

It blows my mind that we are so all over on this forecast! Very interesting, and it will be important to see how those mountains on the interior of Oahu affect everything on the southern shores.  Here is the satellite, showing a wave shifting out of the picture.

Catskills keep it dry

A system moving out of the eastern Great Lakes brought some rain and clouds to western New York, but the moisture originated from the Lakes, and didn’t get kicked too high into the atmosphere, which meant that the rain couldn’t transcend the higher terrain of the Catskills and reach Poughkeepsie in downstate New York on Monday. Victoria-Weather was the only outlet to keep rain out of the forecast, but it was  Accuweather’s top notch temperature forecast that allowed them to win the day.
Actuals: Sunday – High 84, Low 59
Monday – High 86, Low 65

Grade: B

Poughkeepsie, New York

I will say this much. It’s very good that this is a written forecast. As difficult as Poughkeepsie is to write, it’s even harder to say. Weather has been a bit dicey out that way recently, but it looks like we are settling into a bit calmer pattern. What are the numbers looking like in Poughkeepsie.

At 353PM, ET, Poughkeepsie was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with overcast skies.  The tail end of a cold front lay between Poughkeepsie and Long Island, with clear skies and oceanic flow over New York and the Hamptons, and cloudy skies up the Hudson Valley. Cooler temperatures, as low as 69 in Binghamton, were seen in western New York. The clouds are not a widespread overcast, but a natural byproduct of the cooler invasion.
Clearer skies will come tomorrow as flow from the northwest dissipates. A weak upper level trough is trailing the present pattern, and will reinforce the stabilizing pattern, with warmer air returning both at the surface and aloft. As the upper level trough approaches, expect some more clouds, but shower activity to hold off west of the Catskills.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 63
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow -Sunny skies. High 86, Low 60
Monday – Partly cloudy in the morning followed by scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon High 85, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 85, Low 60
Monday – Humid with periods of sun and clouds; a shower or thunderstorm later in the afternoon High 84, Low 65

NWS: Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny,  High 88, Low 61
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 87, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning, sunny. High 83, Low 63
Monday – Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hot, High 82, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 61
Monday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 88, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 65
Monday – Mostly cloudy starting overnight. High 84, Low 70

Looks like some outlets are a shade more pessimistic about the rain than myself. Here is a look at the satellite, with those fair weather cumulus clouds over New York.

Don’t try to make sense of the winds

Olympia sits near sea level, near Puget Sound and surrounded by the Olympic and Cascade mountain ranges. Surface winds, as a result, aren’t often reflective of the winds found at higher reaches of the atmosphere. This made figuring out the temperature trends rather interesting when looking at the wind direction. It was apparent that the narrow temperature variance on Thursday was a result of overcast conditions, while those clouds cleared out on Friday, and the temperatures were warmer in the afternoon and cooler in the morning. This was because the flow switched from westerly to southerly. Meanwhile, at the surface, wind trends did just the opposite. It cleared out and got warmer when winds at the surface became northwesterly. Mountains are the worst. Forecasts were fairly mediocre, but The Weather Channel collected the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Thursday – High 72, Low 57
Friday – High 83, Low 45

Grade: C-D

Olympia, Washington

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 50
Friday – Breezy but warmer, High 77, Low 46

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon High 74, Low 52
Friday – A mainly sunny sky. High 81, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with some clouds, then sunshine High 74, Low 50
Friday – Areas of low clouds and fog, then sunshine High 80, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing High 74, low 50
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny, High 72, low 53
Friday – Sunny, High 78, low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 50
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting overnight. High 74, low 54
Friday – Partly cloudy until morning. High 79, Low 51

Not so bad, especially along the Puget Sound, where they traditionally don’t get this toasty.

Thunderstorms and heat – summer in the south

There wasn’t a strong, well organized system expected to move into the southern United States as last week concluded, unless you think that the rotation and axial tilt of Earth is a strong, well organized system. Monroe saw just what every town in the south is constantly threatened by on Thursday and Friday. Hot weather with isolated thunderstorms in the area. The forecast was not a particular revelation, as the pattern was one that is seen the region over this time of year, so there is some justice in the fact that there was a four way tie atop the leaderboard. Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel, National Weather Service and Forecast.io all took a share of the lead.
Actuals: Thursday – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 92, Low 76
Friday – Thundestorms reported, not measured, High 95, Low 73

Grade: B

Stormy Saturdays

The forecast for Dothan heading into the weekend was a pretty typical summer forecast for the region, constant chances of afternoon thunderstorms. One just passed by the area on Friday, but Saturday saw a direct hit, dumping over an inch of rain in the process. It was a close battle, but WeatherNation edged out VW and the NWS by a single point.

Friday: Thunderstorm reported in vicinity. High 94, Low 76.
Saturday: 1.04″ in thunderstorm. High 93, Low 72.
Forecast Grade: B-D

Dothan, Alabama

Today we head down towards the Gulf Coast region to find out how the fine people of Dothan, Alabama are doing today. Is a dry start to the weekend in store or will thunderstorms dot the landscape?

At 153am CDT, the temperature at Dothan, AL was 77 degrees under fair skies. Activity has subsided during these overnight hours as per usual. High pressure founds off the Southeast coastline extends its axis into the northern Gulf of Mexico, suppressing chances of any nocturnal activity from really reaching them. Some scattered airmass thunderstorms are expected to pop up during the afternoon hours on Friday, which is pretty typical for these summer months in the Deep South (gotta love that GOM moisture!). Tail end of a boundary looks to swing into the region on Saturday, however, which is expected to increase the coverage of thunderstorms throughout the region. Constant daylong rains aren’t expected, but odds are Dothan will see some storm activity over the next couple of days.

Friday: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High 92, Low 75.
Saturday: Thunderstorms likely. High 89, Low 74.

TWC: Friday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 91, Low 75.
Saturday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 87, Low 74.

AW: Friday: A thunderstorm around. High 92, Low 75.
Saturday: A stray afternoon t-storm. High 88, Low 75.

NWS: Friday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 93, Low 75.
Saturday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 89, Low 75.

WB: Friday: Increasing chances of afternoon thunderstorms. High 89, Low 75.
Saturday: Chances of thunderstorms. High 87, Low 76.

WN: Friday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. High 93, Low 75.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 90, Low 75.

FIO: Friday: Light rain starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 90, Low 73.
Saturday: Rain starting in the morning. High 88, Low 75.

Much of the Gulf Coast region is clear tonight, but the afternoon hours the next couple days should paint a different picture as diurnal convection develops.

Monroe, Louisiana

Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, High 94 Low 73
Friday – Mostly cloudy, a few thunderstorms, High 94, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning followed by scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon High 92, Low 76
Friday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Cloudy skies late High 91, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine and patchy clouds with a thunderstorm in parts of the area in the afternoon High 91, Low 76
Friday – Periods of sun and clouds with a shower or thunderstorm in the area High 91, Low 76

NWS:: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny,  High 92, Low 76
Friday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny,  High 91, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Becoming mostly cloudy. High 91, Low 76
Friday – Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 90, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 91, Low 77
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, HIgh 91, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the afternoon and evening.High 93, Low 75
Friday – Light rain until afternoon. High 92, Low 74

Enjoy the forecast, I hope residents of northern Louisiana are able to endure the heat!

Bend, Oregon

Happy Independence Day everybody! Hopefully you had an enjoyable extended weekend and got to enjoy some fireworks today. As we ease our way into a short work week, let’s head off to Central Oregon and find out what’s happening in the lee of the Cascades!

At 555pm PDT, the temperature in Bend, OR was 91 degrees under fair skies. A broad upper-ridge is found over the western US with a lingering boundary/low pressure system found over eastern Washington. the boundary is expected to dissipate by tomorrow morning, but essentially a thermal low is going to continue hanging out over eastern sections of WA/OR over the next couple of days as toasty temps in the 90s are anticipated. Very little chance is anticipated in the overall pattern as we push into the weekend, so in the meantime, the conditions in Bend will be hot and quiet.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hot. High 92, Low 56.
Thursday: Continued sunny and hot High 93, Low 57.

TWC: Wednesday: Sunny. High 95, Low 58.
Thursday: Sunny. High 94, Low 58.

AW: Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hot. High 93, Low 55.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot. High 93, Low 55.

NWS: Wednesday: Sunny. High 93, Low 52.
Thursday: Sunny. High 94, Low 57.

WB: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 90, Low 58.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 90, Low 58.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 52.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 57.

FIO: Wednesday: Clear throughout the day. High 89, Low 61.
Thursday: Clear throughout the day. High 88, Low 62.

Here we see much of the western US is clear and quiet, just some high wispy clouds over eastern OR. Much of the same is in store for the next couple of days as temperatures remain high.