Sandusky, Ohio

It’s hard to believe the couple of months we have been through as a country. Hopefully, it is an inflection point in our history, towards justice and understanding.

At 255PM, ET, Sandusky was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 55 degrees. A solid dome of high pressure was centered over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with little threat of being dislodged today.
A sharp, fast moving trough will slide into the Great Lakes through the day tomorrow, with some showers and thunderstorms following suit. At the surface, there is expected to be enough penetration into the surface ridge that some of those showers and storms will clip Sandusky overnight Monday into Tuesday, with some slow moving showers and clouds on Tuesday morning. The ridge will linger to the south, so sunny skies should return by afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, late rain. High 72, Low 46
Tuesday – Overcast early with a spot of rain, then sunny in the afternoon. High 81, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 73, Low 47
Tuesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 84, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and warmer, High 71, Low 47
Tuesday – A shower or thunderstorm early in the morning; rather cloudy and humid High 77, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 71, low 48
Tuesday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2pm, then a slight chance of showers. Partly sunny High 80, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, not as cool, High 71, Low 49
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly sunny, 40 percent chance of showers, High 77, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 48
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 78, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 70, low 49
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 79, Low 62

Here is the satellite, showing a very nice end to the weekend across the Great Lakes.

Detroit, Michigan

Michigan had some significant issues with heavy rainfall earlier this week, as dams stressed by the new rainfall failed northwest of Saginaw, near Midland and Edenville, forcing thousands to evacuate. Hopefully, a couple of days of calm quiet weather are on their way, and Michiganders can dry out and put things back together.

At 1053AM, ET, Detroit was reporting a temperature of 65 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. At the surface, things were tranquil with high pressure in the area, but an upper level low churning over Kentucky and Tennessee is smothering the region in clouds and an unusual southeasterly flow across Michigan. A result of this is that warmer temperatures are found north of Detroit, while it gets a bit cooler to the south.
The low is cut off from the primary flow in the region, which is coursing through central Canada. The feature approaching Appalachia will have no direction, save to attempt to drift towards a jet trough in northern Quebec. The circulation in the eastern Midwest won’t drum up much energy in Michigan, but moisture will probably be persistent in the mid and upper levels, suggesting mostly cloudy skies to begin Memorial Day weekend, though the low level moisture shouldn’t be available to lead to much rain, though drizzle will be possible. Expect some dreary times and temperatures not reaching their potential, but certainly not a terrible start to the weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, chance of rain, High 68, Low 56
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, with some drizzle possible, High 74, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional showers for the afternoon. High 68, Low 56
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 76, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 67, Low 55
Saturday – Pleasant and warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 75, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 69, Low 55
Saturday – Partly sunny, High 76, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 57
Saturday – Partly cloudy, chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 75, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 69, Low 55
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 76, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible drizzle in the morning. High 66, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 56

My original draft had no precipitation in the Detroit forecast, but then I got cold feet, because they have a local source of moisture just to the east. Still, it’s remarkable to see precipitation forecasts all over the map like this. Should be an interesting verification. Let’s check out this satellite image, with clouds smothering the area just south of Detroit.

Barnstable, Massachusetts

i hate to do this as we all have our plans and lives suspended, but our forecast schedule is taking us to a great vacation town, Barnstable, which is on Cape Cod.

At 156PM, ET, Barnstable was reporting a temperature of 56 degrees with clear skies. This is a little misleading, however, as an area of low pressure moving through New England is generating bands of rain showers through the region, with a looming band approaching Martha’s Vineyard, with rain reported as close as Newport, Rhode Island and Plymouth, Massachusetts. This is the occluded portion of the evolved area of low pressure, and short term changes won’t be substantial ater this leading round of rain moves through.
After the low moves through, a pocket of cold air will invade and make for a chilly Tuesday. The circulation surrounding the low as it moves into Maritime Canada will bring some flurries to the Adirondacks, and breezes will be stiff on the Cape. Wednesday looks like a more pleasant day, with wind subsiding and warm air encroaching from the southwest.
Tomorrow – Passing clouds with breeze, High 57, Low 42
Wednesday – Chilly in the morning, but sunny in the afternoon, High 57, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 58, Low 44
Wednesday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 57, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and breezy High 58, Low 44
Wednesday – Plenty of sun High 57, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 43
Wednesday – Sunny, High 57, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 56, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunny, High 55, Low 38

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 38

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 56, Low 44
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 56, Low 40

The tough part about temperature forecasting in Barnstable is that you need to closely monitor the wind direction and speed. Brisk off shore winds will keep it a bit warmer on Tuesday, and light on shore winds will keep it cooler on Wednesday. The radar comes from Long Island, as Boston’s is out today.

Evansville, Indiana

I used to live in the northern part of Indiana (I went to school there) but I’ve never made it down to Evansville. One of my best meteorology friends is from Evansville, though, so maybe this forecast will get a cosmic boost because of that.

At 1154PM, CT, Evansville was reporting few clouds with a temperature of 57 degrees. The regime was mostly southerly, thanks to a warm front emerging on the Wisconsin/Illinois border. While the southerly flow is impacting Evansville now, the continued development of this feature will mean more significant weather later in the week. Notably, after a daylong warm up tomorrow, the cold front, materializing through the day on Tuesday, will arrive late in the evening. Rain and thunderstorms, some of which could contain hail or strong winds, will be possible.
After the front passes, the parent low will begin to occlude and meander through the Great Lakes as it takes a left turn towards eastern Canada. Rain will continue to wrap around the circulation, even as the cold front presses to the east. A positive benefit is that temperatures won’t dip too far on Wednesday, thanks to the cloud cover, but the steady light rain will make the day too gloomy to see that silver lining.
Tomorrow -Warm and mostly sunny, with strong thunderstorms possible late, High 76, Low 55
Wednesday – Heavy early rain, then mostly cloudy with rain possible through the day, High 62, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day (Late thunderstorms). High 76, Low 56
Wednesday – A steady rain in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon. Thunder possible High 64, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and breezy (dangerous thunderstorms late) High 73, Low 56
Wednesday – Cloudy, breezy and cooler with showers High 62, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, (storms late) High 74, Low 55
Wednesday – Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. High 66, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (late storms), High 73, Low 57
Wednesday – Showers in the morning then showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 64, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 74, Low 56
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy iwth light showers, High 66, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 55
Wednesday – Rain throughout the day. High 66, Low 50

FIO’s timing is slower and I fear that may do them in this forecast, but I always appreciate their temperature forecasts on non-standard days (which is what will happen on Wednesday). 24 hour highs and lows. A look at the satellite shows the remnant of an unmentioned area of low pressure. The real focus is the next one for Evansville.

Des Moines, Iowa

Hey, I know some people that live in Des Moines.

At 854PM, CT, Des Moines was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with clear skies. There was certainly a warm front just to the west, as even at this hour, Lincoln, Nebraska was sitting in the low 70s. Low pressure further to the south was intercepting any moisture, so the warm air will lift into Des Moines overnight without much impact.
The southern low will shift eastward and remain south of of the Hawkeye State. Some moisture folded into the feature will wrap back to the north during the day tomorrow and lead to overcast skies at times with some light drizzle. The feature will shift further east overnight Wednesday into Thursday, with dryer air building in for a sunny day on Thursday, though late in the day, another trough will begin to drift in from the west. This will be weaker, but with better access to moisture for the Des Moines area than the two features previously, and some late rain or thunder are possible Thursday night.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy to overcast, with a chance for drizzle. High 76, Low 48
Thursday – Very early and very late rain possible, but sunny during the day, High 68, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms High 76, Low 51
Thursday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny High 70, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then turning cloudy, breezy and warmer (Late rain) High 74, Low 50
Thursday – Some sun, then turning cloudy, breezy and warmer High 70, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Partly sunny, High 76, Low 49
Thursday – Mostly sunny (Late rain) High 70, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Warmer. High 71, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly sunny (thunderstorms early and late) High 69, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 76, Low 49
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 49

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 51
Thursday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 73, Low 51

Here is the night’s satellite, showing Iowa to be nice and clear tonight.

Sacramento, California

We’ve been worried so much about what has been going on in the southeast lately, we haven’t even looked out west for a while. What is, exactly, going on in the West Coast?

At 1053AM, PT, Sacramento was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 58 degrees. A weak perturbation in the upper atmosphere is generating clouds over California, including some precipitation in he higher terrain, but there isn’t much support coming behind this feature. Clouds may take time clearing out, but a significant cool down and precipitation are not expected.
More concerted ridging will move into the area by midday tomorrow, rendering Tuesday a clearer and warmer day for the Capitol. There should still be some ambient cloud cover through the area on Wednesday, as a north to south jet will continue weakly along the Nevada-Utah border, and will likely provide, at the very least, some clouds on the eastern horizon for Sacramento
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy but clearing High 75, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. High 82, Low 78

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer High 77, Low 46
Wednesday – Beautiful with a blend of sun and clouds High 82, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – Mostly sunny,  High 83, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy, High 81, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 83, Low 51

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 48
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 53

V-W is a bigger believer in the threat for cloud cover. Below, take a look at how robust it is this morning. You can’t even make out the coast yet today.

Hickory, North Carolina

It’s interesting that Hickory, NC is clearly the largest Hickory in the world, but the most famous is one in Indiana that doesn’t even exist.

At 1153PM, ET, Hickory was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with overcast skies. There were a few sprinkles around town, which was simply a the leading edge of what will be a rainy overnight. The heaviest rain still resided in South Carolina, but it was moving into the Tar Heel State. A strong area of low pressure has brought another day of heavy weather to the southeastern US, but will be pressed east and offshore before any of the worst of the weather can reach Hickory.
The center of low pressure is going to move towards the Carolina coast on its trek northeastward, with moist air advecting back to the west on the back and north end of the low. This will likely enhance the threat for precipitation through Monday morning, at least. The jet stream is running in parallel right now, and a trailing, still strong but less active system is traversing the Canadian Prairies. After Monday dries out, the second system will swing a cold front through the area that will help make things breezy, with a bit of a cool down Tuesday evening.
Tomorrow – Rain through the morning, then improving, High 68, Low 51
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, with increasing clouds late, High 71, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain early. Decreasing clouds with mostly sunny skies by afternoon. High 70, Low 49
Tuesday – Sunny. High 70, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of rain in the morning, then clouds giving way to some sun in the afternoon High 69, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy and pleasant High 72, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Occasional showers, mainly before 11am. Patchy fog before 10am. High 68, Low 49
Tuesday – Sunny,High 71, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Cloudy with showers in the morning then mostly sunny with a chance of showers in the afternoon, High 68, Low 51
Tuesday – Sunny breezy with highs in the lower 70s, High 69, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 68, Low 50
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain overnight and in the morning. High 69, Low 48
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 70, Low 45

There wasn’t rain before we started this forecast, but there is now, in Hickory. Looking at the radar, though, I think you can see that it was inevitable.

Monroe, Louisiana

Monroe was one of the first places impacted by the Easter Sunday tornado outbreak in the southern US. Monroe saw damage at the airport, and hundreds of homes and buildings in the area. Fortunately, it looks like we will be getting some more tolerable weather through the middle of the week. Let’s see if I can prove that.

At 1253PM, CT, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with a north wind and mostly sunny skies. There were a few stray clouds to the west, from El Dorado, Arkansas to Ruston and Shreveport, but Monroe was in a sunny streak of the atmosphere. The north wind trailed a still active cold front that stretched from north Florida to the Gulf of Mexico, while the band of clouds atop northern Louisiana was associated with a much weaker trough wrapping into the same area of low pressure as the front. That low was heading towards Ellesmere Island, which should give an indication of how strong it’s influence is.
The parent jet trough is winterlike in it’s strength. The trough is broad and encompassing, but its momentum is carrying it eastward at a pace that doesn’t reflect how weak the flow is behind it, especially given how broad the trough is. With cold air pressing eastward, there doesn’t seem to be much poleward motion, and Monroe looks to be ensconced in cool dry air for the middle of the week.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 37
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies, High 65, Low 40
Thursday – Mainly sunny, High 73, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 38
Thursday – Mostly sunny and pleasant, High 72, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, High 66, Low 37
Thursday – Sunny, High 73, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of frost through mid-morning. Mostly sunny. High 63, low 40
Thursday – Sunny, High 70, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with areas of frost, High 66, Low 37
Thursday – Sunny, High 73, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 65, Low 37
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 72, Low 39

That should be very comfortable. Even if you are out of power in Monroe, first off, thank you for using your mobile device to check Victoria-Weather, and second, I am happy to hear that you will not have to contend with heat without air conditioning. See the banding of clouds over the southeast, below.

Jacksonville, Florida

We have trekked out to Washington quite a bit recently (including a forecast for Yakima that didn’t quite get published until I noticed it hadn’t gone out right now) but now, we will be going exactly to the opposite side of the country.

At 1156PM, ET, Jacksonville was reporting a temperature of 63 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. This is likely a bit of an aberration, as most sites across the region are cloud free, and the satellite imagery shows most of the sunshine state enjoying some moonshine tonight. The remnants of a boundary over the southeast lingers from Georgia to Mississippi in the form of some high clouds, though that is all that threatens tonight.
High pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas will ensure Jacksonville will stay dry and mostly sunny on Tuesday. There is a weak low level disturbance over the Mississippi Delta that will continue to unravel as it shifts to the east, but Wednesday is going to look a little bit bleaker with a few more clouds and an isolated shot at a shower or thunderstorm.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a spot of rain, High 83, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 87, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 86, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 85, Low 64
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy and very warm; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 86, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 86, Low 62
Wednesday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy, High 85, Low 64
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the morning then chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 84, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 62
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 88, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 61
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 67

Here is the satellite graphic for the evening. Just a few clouds to the north, while Jacksonville can settle in for the night with no problems.

Yakima, Washington

We’re taking another trip to Washington, this time to the south central part of the state. This could be a tough forecast, thanks to the position between some mountain ranges, an at the western reaches of our observation network. How will this go?

AT 1153AM, PT, Yakima was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with overcast skies. A shark trough was stretching through the western US, with an area of low pressure centered off the coast of Eureka, California, but everywhere through the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies was congested with clouds and the threat of mountain snow and rain.
The center of low pressure at the surface will sink further south, while the upper level trough will attempt to pivot east. High pressure will nose into western Washington and attempt to cut the low off over the central California Coast. This will bring some warmer, sunnier conditions to Washington, however there is certainly a chance for some lingering fog in the Yakima Valley, particularly in the mornings.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny by afternoon, some fog in the morning, High 64, Low 35
Tuesday – Sunny, High 66, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 68, Low 32
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies.High 69, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 67, Low 31
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and nice High 69, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,  High 64, Low 34
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing, High 66, Low 32
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 64, Low 34
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, Low 32
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 35

Here is a look at the western US and the satellite. There is so much cloud cover it’s tough to discern the map.