Allentown, Pennsylvania

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Eastern Pennsylvania tonight, with a forecast for the Lehigh Valley.

At 1151PM, ET, Allentown was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 52. High pressure dominated New England, however a fairly deep trough over the Great Lakes, producing a weak feature presently centered over the Upper Peninsula. A band of showers over the Mid Atlantic and lifting northward was tied to this feature as well.
The upper level trough in the Great Lakes will continue to track o the east, and tap more effectively into the Gulf Stream,, while taking the traditional comma shape of a large area of low pressure. Cold air won’t really trickle into Allentown until Monday afternoon, when the original cold front arrives. Meanwhile, the moisture will have a tough time getting into the Lehigh VAlley either, rising from the south to meet the broader feature. Still, a chance for showers with overcast Sunday afternoon, and a clearer day on Monday, if trending cooler by nightfall.
Tomorrow – Passing clouds, especially in the afternoon with a sprinkle, High 60, Low 50
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies with a few showers later in the day High 61, Low 52
Monday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon.  High 68, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and cooler; occasional rain this afternoon High 61, Low 53
Monday – Mostly sunny and breezy at times; the start of an extended stretch of dry weather High 70, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, High 63, Low 52
Monday – Partly sunny, HIgh 68, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the afternoon. High 64, Low 57
Monday – Sunny High 60, Low 44

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 63, Low 53
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 57

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showes, High 61, Low 52
Monday – Sunny High 67, Low 53

Satellite will continue to show a busy pattern in the northeast, but just like to night, it looks like a lot of that activity will steer clear of the Allentown area.

Sherman, Texas

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We are headed to the Red River Valley tonight. Perhaps not the most interesting time of year for a forecast, but people still need to know the weather.

At 350PM, CT, Sherman was reporting partly cloudy skies with a temperature of 93 degrees. While the pattern is fairly benign, there is a bit of instability around Dallas, and there are a few pop up thunderstorm in the region,
A deep trough at the upper levels over the Rockies is diving southwest towards the Central Coast of California. This synoptic feature will interact with Hurricane Polo. The trough will stall aloft while Polo’s influence will move into the 4 Corners area. All this said, the main impact for north Texas will be continued return flow, a weaker than normal dry line, and isolated showers and storms will linger throughout the region for both days of the forecast period.
Tomorrow – Fair skies with an isolated storm, High 91, Low 69
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, isolated showers and storms, High 93, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible high 89, Low 70
Tuesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 93, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, very warm and humid; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 90, Low 70
Tuesday – Breezy in the morning; remaining very warm with more clouds than sun with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 91, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 70
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 94, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 88, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly sunny.  High 91, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 91, Low 70
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 72

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 89, Low 69
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 71

It looks like a pretty static couple of days, and all thanks to a hurricane.

Salinas, California

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Hey there, Salinas, what’s it like in your fine city?

At 653PM, PT, Salinas was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees and clear skies. The temperature matched the dew point, and fog will be creeping in, and the marine layer was creeping up the central Coast.
While typical thermal troughing in the Central Valley is expected to continue, along with a surface ridge on the coast, there is a system moving into the Pacific Northwest, arriving on the Oregon Coast tomorrow evening. This will amplify southerly flow around Salinas, which will provide a more reliable source for morning clouds on Friday morning as well.
Tomorrow – Morning fog and clouds, High 77, Low 55
Friday – Scattered early clouds, High 75, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 77, Low 57
Friday – Partly cloudy skies High 73, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and nice High 79, Low 56
Friday – Increasing amounts of sunshine High 73, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 59
Friday – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, High 72, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. High 76, Low 59
Friday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. High 73, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 59
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 57

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 55
Friday – Sunny, High 72, Low 56

It’s 1,000 miles away from here, but Salinas, you look so pretty.

Memphis, Tennessee

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Rarely is there a day like this, where the weather in my location is going to be vastly different than the town I am forecasting for. That happens most typically when I am looking at the West Coast, but I Memphis isn’t so far from Minnesota that it should feel like an entirely different season!

At 254PM, CT, Memphis was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 99 degrees. An area of low pressure over Canada dangled a slow moving boundary through the Great Lakes to Iowa. Typically, this position, especially with the heat in Memphis, would lead to scattered showers in the region, however a weak upper level gyre over the Florida Peninsula was redirecting flow back eastward, and away from Memphis.
At the gyre drifts into the Gulfs Stream, it will strengthen and drift to join with the upper level trough. This won’t be directly impactful for Memphis, but it will allow the rich tropical air to move north and flood towards that boundary. There is a better chance for rain and storms to begin the work week, after a grueling hot weekend.
Tomorrow – Hot, High 100, Low 77
Monday – Sunny, some clouds and a late storm, High 98, Low 77

TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. Hot High 100, Low 75
Monday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 97, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and very hot with the temperature approaching the record high of 100 last reached in 2022; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 74
Monday – Partly sunny and toasty conditions; an afternoon thunderstorm; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 95, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot, High 100, Low 76
Monday – Mostly sunny and hot, High 98, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the afternoon High 94, Low 78
Monday – Mostly sunny. High 96, Low 79

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 100, Low 76
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 98, Low 76

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 99, Low 77
Monday – Partly cloudy High 97, Low 75

It’s about 30 degrees warmer in Memphis than it is not far to the north. There is a circulation centered around Tampa, but again another one over Mississippi. Just churning away.

Williamsport, Pennsylvania

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North Central PA has the ability to be a tricky forecast, because it is squeezed between the Atlantic and Great Lakes, all while nestled in the folds of the Allegheny Mountains. Tricky!

At 954PM, ET, Williamsport was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with clear skies. The cool temperatures, valley location and clear skies are all ingredients that will lead to overnight fog.
A stout ridge lays over the Mid-Atlantic, despite a strong trough attempting to move in from the northern Plains. Eastern Pennsylvania will remain clear and fairly sunny through midweek while the boundary and trough dissipate and stall, respectively. Flow will become more southerly, however, leading to a warmer day on Wednesday in Williamsport.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 48
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and warmer. High 81, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 74, Low 46
Wednesday – A shower or two possible early with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. High 81, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning followed by sun and areas of high clouds; pleasant with low humidity HIgh 74, Low 46
Wednesday – Sun through high clouds High 79, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, High 74, Low 45
Wednesday – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 81, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Sunny. High 73, Low 50
Wednesday – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. High 80. Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 52

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 47
Wednesday – Light rain showers, High 79, Low 55

Those smatterings of rain showers are particularly interesting to me. The radar and cloud cover are pretty empty tonight.

Morristown, Tennessee

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s time to journey to the mountains of eastern Tennessee this afternoon. Technically, I think it’s also northern Tennessee, but who can even say? It’s in that little finger pointing at the Virginia/North Carolina border.

At 1215PM, ET, Morristown was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with clear skies. The tail of a remnant boundary was lingering over the Carolinas, and the Gulf was open to the Ohio Valley. Showers and scattered storms will be possible through the afternoon across the region, though Morristown should remain dry, thanks to the position of the town north and west of the Smokeys, however eyes should stay on the next feature moving into the Northern Plains.
As the boundary moves into the Upper Midwest, flow will redirect to become lightly southwesterly. The boundary itself will remain over the Great Lakes, but the moisture over the southeast will waft towards Morristown. There will be a chance of light showers on Saturday afternoon. As the feature shifts further east, the Gulf will close off, and clear skies will return to eastern Tennessee.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, chance of afternoon showers, High 80, Low 69
Sunday – Early cloudy, then sunny, High 86, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then mainly cloudy during the afternoon High 81, Low 69
Sunday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 88, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; humid; thunderstorms can bring gusty winds and ponding on roadways High 81, Low 69
Sunday – Times of clouds and sun with widely separated thunderstorms; humid High 85, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny High 86, Low 69
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 81, Low 71
Sunday – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the morning. High 87, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers and a chance of storms, High 86, Low 69
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 87, Low 67

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 82, Low 70
Sunday – Light rain showers, High 87, Low 69

I’m surprised the other outlets are calling for rain on Sunday. It seems like it will be a bit of a challenge. Here is the radar, showing a couple of pop up storms in southern Kentucky.

Syracuse, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

A couple of stops in the next several days in New York, with our first down wind of the Great Lakes. I don’t anticipate Lake effect snow this time around.

At 654PM, ET, Syracuse was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 74 degrees. Dew points are also pleasantly situated in the 50s as high pressure has built into the mid-Atlantic. Eyes will be toward the Great Lakes, however, as a cold front moving through Michigan and Wisconsin, bringing showers and storms that are headed for Chicago.
The cold front is tied to an area of low pressure over Hudson Bay, and affiliated with a deep and seasonably strong trough in the Great Lakes The boundary will drift eastward, losing some punch as it moves into dry, stable air over the mid-Atlantic. There will still be a few showers in the area tomorrow afternoon, though not terribly strong. The boundary will shift out of the region for Thursday, with sunnier and even cooler conditions to round out the week.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, a splash of afternoon rain, high 80, Low 61
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 79, Low 61
Thursday – Partly to mostly cloudy High 78, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness with a thunderstorm; gusty winds can accompany any downpour, High 79, Low 59
Thursday – Partly sunny and nice High 78, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Partly sunny, High 81, low 61
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 80, Low 64
Thursday – Partly sunny. High 78, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light showers and a chance of storms, High 81, Low 61
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 59

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 79, Low 61
Thursday – Sunny, High 79, Low 58

Something will indeed be coming out of the Lakes, but it won’t be snow. Not yet. Satellite shows those clouds coming Syracuse’s way.

Jonesboro, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

One of the reasons I like to write the road trip forecasts is because I enjoy taking random road trips. I go to random college or professional sporting events, get a feel for a town or school or team, and see what I can see along the way. It’s a lovely way to see America. With that in mind, I’ve been to Jonesboro, and despite the weather, which was dreary, I enjoyed my time.

At 1053PM, CT, Jonesboro was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with clear skies. The jet flow lies well to the north, and is fairly laminar. Both of these factors are leading to the starry sky tonight across the Diamond State.
The zonal, laminar flow across much of the country is going to reinforce the development of a lee trough. Surface level circulation will be southerly over Arkansas, with a warm front setting up in Missouri. This will prevent showers and storms from drifting southward, and Jonesboro, in southerly flow, will wilt in ongoing heat and humidity.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 100, Low 79
Thursday – Sunny, High 100, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 98, Low 78
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 99, Low 78

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 77
Thursday – Breezy and hot with clouds giving way to some sun; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 78

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 99, Low 78
Thursday – Sunny and hot, High 100, Low 79

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 99, Low 81
Thursday – Sunny. High 98, Low 83

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 78
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 79

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High, 99,, Low 76
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 100, Low 78

Another hot one. I’m including the satellite here to check out the convective activity over in Tennessee.

Norwich, Connecticut

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Off to New England as we reach he dog days of summer. I suspect that many residents in the Norwich area would happily be on their way to Martha’s Vineyard or otherwise on vacation this time of year.

At 852PM, ET, Norwich was seeing a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. The temperatures over Long Island and near the coast in Connecticut were a shade lower as the sun had less time to shine. Left over mid level moisture along the coast has continued to mean clouds from Long Island southward, and with high pressure parked over the Atlantic will keep it in place for a while.
The next feature to keep an eye on is a standing trough in the Great Lakes. While the cold front won’t be moving eastward in any kind of hurry, the little progression there is will draw some of that lingering coastal moisture further north. The mere act of inducing some motion within this moist air mass will lead to some general showers and storms that will eventually reach eastern Connecticut by Thursday evening.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 61
Thursday – Late showers and storms, otherwise mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 59
Thursday – AM Showers, High 88, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83, Low 57
Thursday – Uncomfortably humid with intervals of clouds and sun; an afternoon thunderstorm in parts of the area High 86. Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny (late rain), High 84, Low 58
Thursday – A chance of showers before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 87, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. (late rain) High 85, Low 64
Thursday – Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 87, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 87, Low 68

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 59
Thursday – Light rain showers, High 87, Low 70

There isn’t enough there, in my opinion, to worry about showers tomorrow. It’s barely concerning on Thursday. Satellite shows those clouds along the Mid-Atantic coast.

Fresno, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our forecast takes us to the piping hot Central Valley in California. Right out of the frying pan and into the fire, as they say.

At 653PM, PT, Fresno was reporting a temperature of 102, and smokey skies. The Raleigh Fire is located northeast of town, and smoke is observed at the airport, though the fire is nearly 100% contained.
There is an upper level trough moving through the Pacific Northwest, with a ridge moving into the area to start the work week. With flow becoming less organized, laminar upper level winds will be a bit stronger and more westerly. This would typically mean a bit of relief with more Pacific air and the chance for upper level flow, but lighter winds will mitigate any advantages.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 109, Low 73
Monday – Fair skies, hot, High 110, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 107, Low 71
Monday – Sunny, High 108, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Sweltering heat with blazing sunshine; heat will be dangerous, minimize outdoor activity High 108, Low 71
Monday – Blazing sunshine with the temperature approaching the record of 110 set in 1946; heat will be dangerous, minimize outdoor activity High 109, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot,  High 105, Low 71
Monday – Sunny and hot, high 105, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 103, Low 76
Monday – Sunny. High 106, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 105, Low 71
Monday – Sunny, High 105, Low 71

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 106, Low 73
Monday – Sunny, High 106, Low 72

This is the rare time where nearly everyone was forecasting below model guidance for several of the models. If some of those runs are right, Fresno will easily surpass that 110 record. Here is a map of Fresno with the location of the Raleigh Fire.