Roanoke, Virginia

There is a well populated corridor on the Atlantic slope of the Appalachians, stretching from Virginia to the Carolinas. In Virginia, the largest of those towns is Roanoke, where we will forecast today.

At 1254PM, ET, Roanoke was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A trough was weakening, but still lingered over the east coast. An area of surface low pressure which had been responsible for copious rain in the region through the middle of the week was now off shore, being drawn northward towards the mean flow. Extensive clouds with some isolated showers were being seen in southeastern Virginia, but in the west, scattered cumulus were seen, with a ribbed pattern on radar reflecting gravity waves and brisk flow through the clouds.
The clearer air to the west isn’t embodied by a particularly strong air mass, and Roanoke’s position in the lee of the Appalachians opens the possibility of low level moisture leading to morning haze, and the languid retreat of low pressure off shore may indicate some mid level clouds. It won’t be a vividly bright couple of days, but there is definitely enough here to believe that two dry days are ahead.
Tomorrow – Morning haze, then partly cloudy, High 88, Low 67
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 67
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 86, Low 68
Saturday – Partly sunny and humid with a thunderstorm High 87, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 87, Low 65
Saturday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 69
Saturday – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 86, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 87, low 65
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 89, low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 65
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 65

The threat for thunderstorms is so low, I was surprised to see it start showing up in some forecasts. A lot of texture to the clouds ongoing in the area.

Dubuque, Iowa

Happy Father’s Day all you dads out there. This forecast is dedicated specifically to the dad’s of Dubuque.

At 953AM, CT, Dubuque was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure in the northern High Plains was producing brisk southerly winds across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures were on the rise in western Iowa, though Dubuque was still relatively comfortable. High pressure over the Great Lakes is strong enough that the low pressure in the Plains is going to be redirected to the north quite efficiently.
While Dubuque is not expected to get as warm as locations to the west and north, but it will still be very hot in Dubuque to start the week. Part of this will be the southerly flow today, but also, the sunny skies through the beginning of the week. A weak cold front will arrive late on Tuesday that will signal a slight cool down, but isn’t expected to carry much precipitation with it.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 63
Tuesday – Sunny, increasing clouds High 95, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 95, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 97, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and hot; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 94, Low 66
Tuesday – The temperature near the record of 100 and humid; a t-storm around in the p.m.; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds High 98, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny and hot High 96, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy sunny, High 91, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 94, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 91, Low 64
Tuesday – Humid throughout the day. High 95, Low 73

IT’s like there are two Dubuques we are forecasting for, and neither of them are really following model guidance closely. Today and tomorrow are going to be hot and sunny.

Grand Forks, North Dakota

It’s summer in North Dakota, which means that it will probably be surprising to many how hot it actually gets up there. No matter the temperature, it’s always windy. Always, always.

At 953AM, CT, Grand Forks was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees and fair skies. Winds were howling out of the west at 20kt, with gusts to 31kt. Low pressure moving into Hudson Bay was accelerating winds across the flatlands of North Dakota, but there should be some respite as the system presses northeast towards northern Quebec.
High pressure will build across the area, providing a blissfully calm day on Friday to end the week. A sharp trough over the Pacific Northwest will accelerate some lee troughing in the northern High Plains, and some ridge riding cloud will pass overhead with a warm front early on Saturday. Heat will build as low pressure spreads into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and accelerates southerly flow through the Plains.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 52
Saturday – Morning clouds, then hot and humid High 92, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies with gusty winds.  High 91, low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 84, Low 54
Saturday – Partly sunny, windy and hot High 90, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny and hot, High 90, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Windy. High 91, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 80, Low 58
Saturday – Windy overnight and in the evening. High 86, Low 60

I’m definitely going warmer. The heat will continue to build, and a run at triple digits is possible for Father’s Day. The trends are going that way, and I am getting ahead of the trend. Satellite shows a wisp of clouds on the back side of the low headed through Canada, and it is windy at the surface. Always windy.

Shreveport, Louisiana

It’s likely to be hot in Louisiana for our forecast, but at least it’s still only June. Maybe, hopefully, the locals aren’t yet thoroughly exhausted by the heat and humidity.

At 1056AM, CT, it was already 88 degrees in Shreveport, with mostly cloudy skies. Dewpoints in the mid 70s meant it was an absolutely sweltering day in northern Louisiana. It is a late spring pattern without a doubt, with a strong trough near the Canadian border, with a surface ridge becoming established over the southeastern US, allowing it to get to near 100 across much of the region today.
As low pressure moves across the Canadian border, it will induce southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico across Louisiana, increasing the humidity, but also clouds, which may shave a degree or two off of high temperatures, but it will still be plenty hot. There is a slight chance of rain closer to the coast and east of the Mississippi, but not high enough to leave it in the forecast for Shreveport.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 96, Low 75
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 97, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. Hot and humid. High 97, Low 75
Thursday – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. Hot and humid High 97, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 96, Low 75
Thursday – Partly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 98, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 97, Low 75
Thursday – Sunny and hot, High 99, Low 76

WB: Mostly sunny. Hot, High 95, Low 75
Thursday: Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 75
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 98, Low 76

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 98, Low 76
Thursday – Humid throughout the day. High 98, Low 77

Oof. Here’s hoping that there are more clouds than are presently in the forecast, and maybe that will be a little bit of relief. It’s pretty clear out there today, though.

Johnstown, Pennsylvania

I feel like it’s been a while since we swung through the Mid-Atlantic, and I don’t think Johnstown is a town I’ve forecast for in the past, or at least recently. Very exciting!

At 949AM, ET, Johnstown was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with light rain showers. There were only a few showers leftover from a stormy overnight, which brought hail south of down through the night. The lingering area of low pressure is presently centered over western Pennsylvania, but is expected to shift to the northeast. Even as the low transitions northeast through New England, overcast and light rain are possible in Johnstown.
As Friday arrives and the low shifts into the Canadian Maritimes, real clearing is expected to take hold. Expect a pleasant end to the work week. The next impulse rippling along the jet stream is going to find a supportive environment for development in the southeastern US. Don’t expect much precipitation to come out of it in Pennsylvania, but the northerly flow off the Lakes rushing towards low pressure in the Carolinas will lead to an environment conducive to mid to low overcast and a few shots of drizzle. All told, Saturday looks to be a hair on the cool side.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 54
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with some light afternoon showers possible, High 65, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 73, Low 54
Saturday – Considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. High 69, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then turning cloudy and warmer High 72, Low 52
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a shower in the afternoon High 72, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny (late rain), High 79, Low 55
Saturday – Rain, mainly between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm High 71, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (late rain), high 70, Low 53
Saturday – Rain likely, High 66, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 51
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with light rain and isolated storms, High 71, Low 53

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 74, Low 52
Saturday – Light rain until afternoon. High 68, Low 56

The start of the rain, and the persistence of the overcast to start the weekend are going to tell the tail of this forecast . A look at the current radar doesn’t really show a whole lot at the moment.

Napa, California

It’s below normal right now in the Upper Midwest, but also, surprisingly, the weather is cooler than average in the northwest, as far south as the Napa Valley. Finally, North Dakota and the North Bay have something in common.

At 1254PM, PT, Napa was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures were warm despite a fresh breeze of the San Pablo Bay. After a stretch of time with a broad trough positioned over the northwestern US, a short waved ridge is pressing inland over the west coast, helping to establish the sunny skies.
The next wave is already positioning in the Gulf of Alaska, with a mature area of low pressure marching towards the coast. The associated occluded and cold front will impact British Columbia and the American Pacific Northwest late on Tuesday, with some mid to high overcast streaking across Napa later in the day on Wednesday, but precipitation is unlikely.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 50
Wednesday – increasing clouds, High 84, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 85, Low 51
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. High 87, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warm High 84, Low 51
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and warm High 86, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny High 85, Low 51
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 86, low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 81, Low 51
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 83, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 51
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 55

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 81, Low 52
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, Low 59

A beautiful day for northern California, and the middle of the week seems delightful as well.

Sioux Falls, South Dakota

Sioux Falls was in the news most recently and on these pages for a massive dust storm that swept the city. Storms may be on the way, but perhaps not as vigorous as the ones seen earlier this month!

At 1256PM, CT, Sioux Falls was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 76 degrees. Warm temperatures were finally filtering back into the Upper Midwest after a cooler stretch to finish May. A broad but transient ridge was sliding through the region, but a similarly broad trough was moving into the Pacific Northwest, leading to cyclogenesis and clouds seen in the western Dakotas.
A rippling warm front will pass through the region overnight tonight, developing a few showers and thunderstorms in the area. A warm, muggier day is expected tomorrow, setting the stage for a few afternoon thunderstorms. The system will stall over the High Plains, with another round of wet weather tomorrow night, this time providing a threat of severe weather. The feature will begin to reorganize in the Colorado Plains, and will revitalize the system in the Dakotas. A connective cold front will light up in the evening on Sunday evening, setting a stage for the potential for straight line wind damage. Tonight, tomorrow and Sunday will have a threat of severe weather, with each of the three days featuring stronger weather with more precipitation likely.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers early, thunderstorms late, High 88, Low 64
Sunday – Strong storms possible late after a hot partly cloudy day, High 88, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. (Late storms) High 91, Low 62
Sunday -Overcast. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine; breezy in the morning, then becoming humid (late storms) High 90, Low 62
Sunday – Breezy with some sun returning; a severe afternoon t-storm; storms can bring downpours, large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado High 87, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (early rain, late storms), High 89, Low 62
Sunday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy,  High 88, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny (late storms) High 89, Low 63
Sunday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 89, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 62
Sunday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 87, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Windy overnight. High 87, Low 61
Sunday – Overcast throughout the day. High 83, Low 68

The paucity of rain forecasts, despite an SPC outlook with a slight or enhanced risk tells you how isolated storms will be. Hopefully, everyone can get out and enjoy the long holiday weekend!

Tyler, Texas

I am a man of science, which means that I am in constant search of evidence to support or challenge explanations of the way the world works. Study after study has shown that gun ownership merely provides the illusion of safety, but the presence actually puts households at greater risk. Empirically, guns are dangerous, and the tragedy in Uvalde yesterday underscores that again, but everyday, dozens of people die or are injured by guns, accidentally, purposefully or in self inflicted acts. Places where gun casualties do not occur are places where guns are not available. That is the only variable.

Now, to another part of Texas for the forecast.

At 1153AM, PM, Tyler was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 73 degrees. An active cold front brought severe weather to the Lone Star State yesterday, and was now east of the Mississippi. In the wake of the boundary, cooler temperatures and a brisk west wind prevail. A cut off low over the south central United States is responsible for the wet weather, so the clouds my linger, but the cold air will struggle to gain traction.
Cooler air will continue to wrap into the Tyler region through tomorrow morning, leaving some overcast in the morning, but flow will level off on Friday, and early summer heat will build back into east Texas. The front that moved through yesterday will maintain a presence in the Gulf and along the east coast as the cut off low gets folded into the mean jet flow, and this will prevent humidity and storm chances from taking hold, even as heat returns.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 55
Friday – Sunny and warmer, High 88, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 58
Friday – Sunny skies.  High 87, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 84, Low 57
Friday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 84, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 55
Friday – Clear throughout the day. High 85, Low 58

Here we see clouds most aggressively in the lower Mississippi Valley with that trailing band of overcast.

Be well, everyone

Kokomo, Indiana

All right gang, we’re ready to head to another forecast destination. After a forecast in my current home state, how about one in my former residence?

At 856AM, ET, Kokomo was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 59 degrees. A deeply occluded system in the Upper Midwest was recentered over Iowa, and the slowly being digested warm front was shifting north through Indiana. The warm sector and copious rain was found in Illinois, but scattered showers were prevalent in the Hoosier State as well. The bundle of low pressure at the end of the occluded boundary will shift from Iowa through Indiana as the day progresses, eventually giving way to a quiet night.
The passage of the system today will allow Kokomo a much more pleasant and significantly drier day on Thursday. A broad upper level trough moving into the northwestern US will give rise to a vast, vibrant area of low pressure in the northern High Plains late Thursday into Friday. Some rain showers are possibly as warm air surges northward on Friday morning, but more significant will be the line of thunderstorms expected to light up across northern Indiana on Friday night. The heaviest weather will be north and west of town, but some late, noisy, windy storms are expected before midnight.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 58
Friday – Transient clouds, with chances for a bit of rain early and especially late. Humid. High 86, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 85, Low 58
Friday – Windy with a few clouds from time to time. High 88, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Warmer with times of sun and clouds High 82, Low 57
Friday – Breezy, very warm and humid with partial sunshine High 88, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 56
Friday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Warmer, Mostly sunny. High 81, Low 59
Friday – Breezy, Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 59
Friday 0 Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, High 87, Low 56

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, Low 59
Friday – Windy in the morning. High 88, Low 69

Oh my, it seems as though someone at Weathernation slipped on the keyboard when assigning the Friday morning low. It really is 56 on their site. Now I don’t feel so bad going on the low side for my forecast! Look at all this rain coming for southern Indiana. The Ohio is going to be running pretty quickly!

Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth is one of the most underrated cities out there, in terms of culture, activity and overall beauty. It’s a real treasure on Lake Superior, and frankly feels a little out of place in Minnesota.

At 1155AM, CT, Duluth was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 52 degrees, and rain. Much of northern Minnesota was caked in rainfall, thoruhg a line of thunderstorms from Moose Lake to St. Cloud was also progressing to the east. A perturbation along a rising warm front was more active, it seemed, than expected, but a warm up to the south and west of Duluth promised another ominous day of convection in Minnesota and the Dakotas.
Short range models indicate a clearing later this afternoon, which would provide for a warmer afternoon. Additional strong thunderstorms will emerge in the Red River Valley in the early evening, but whatever comes from those will not reach Duluth until close to midnight. There is a threat for some gusts with these storms, but the real danger is on the other side of the state. The jet is north to south and will direct the parent low that direction. As a result, behind the front will be substantially warmer than a typical May cold front. This will lead to a bit more instability, and clouds are likely Friday, and a post frontal trough could bring a bit more rain on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy. Rain and thunder before dawn, High 73, low 49
Saturday – Partly cloudy, chance of some afternoon rain, especially away from the Lake, High 71, low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine (Early storms), High 65, low 45
Saturday – Sunshine and some clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 69, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Mild with clouds followed by a brightening sky (early storms)High 67, low 44
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 69, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny (early storms) High 70, Low 49
Saturday – Sunny, High 70, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (early storms(, High 70, low 47
Saturday – Sunny. A 20 percent chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 69, low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, high 70, low 49
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 51

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy overnight and in the morning. High 73, low 45
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 69, Low 54

This is a lot of rain. Good news for fans of Gooseberry Falls, at least.