Category Archives: Forecast

Out of sorts

It’s a weird thing, when  high pressure moves in, but it brings about clouds and colder temperatures, but alas, that’s what happened early this week in Corpus Christi. Northeasterly winds riding the ridge diving into the area met the warmer Gulf waters, and a sheath of low overcast and Canadian air made Corpus Christi significantly cooler on Monday. The forecasts were all in the same range, with little separation from first to last, but it was  The Weather Channel who had the clear victory.
Actuals: Sunday, High 62, Low 45
Monday – High 53, Low 47

Grade: B

Mystery Mornings

It seems to be kind of hard to pin down what happened in Columbus, IN over the last couple of days. The nearby reporting station only reports between 6am and 10pm, missing the main period where freezing drizzle was forecast to happen, though some light snow reports were seen.

Wednesday: Light snow reported. High 33, Low 30.
Thursday: Rain reported. High 37, Low 32.
Forecast Grade: B-C

Waco, Texas

We’ve taken a hard look at the center of the country lately, and that continues with this exploration of Texas.

At 951AM, CT, Waco was reporting overcast skies with fog and a temperature of 50 degrees. A moisture rich return flow was feeding into a very weak trough sliding through the Plains. There weren’t any surface triggers available to help produce a shower or thunderstorm that might clear things up, so Waco and most of East Texas look to be in for a drizzly, bleak Wednesday, which will probably spill into Thursday morning. 
Surface low pressure will shift off to the east through Thursday evening, but it won’t cycle in any colder clearer air to scour the moisture out of central Texas, and continued clouds and haze will continue to be a possibility through the day. Another, stronger system will descend out of the Rockies into the Colorado Plains, with more aggressive circulation and a swifter drop in pressure. Waco will be in the warm sector, and will appreciate a swift warm up on Friday, with the potential for thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 49
Friday – Warmer, with thunderstorms in the afternoon High 70, Low 45

TWC: Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 67, Low 51
Friday – Cloudy in the morning, then thunderstorms developing later in the day. Gusty winds and small hail are possible High  68, low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 68, Low 50
Friday – Thunderstorms, some severe; storms can bring downpours, large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado High 69, low 46

NWS: Tomorrow Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 64, Low 50
Friday – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 69, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 52
Friday – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Then a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 65, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 51
Friday – Mostly clouidy with scattered storms, High 71, low 49

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day.
Friday – Breezy starting in the afternoon, continuing until night, and light rain starting in the evening. High 71, Low 48

Interesting to see the Weather Service and WeatherNation diverge so greatly. Also, Accuweather is bringing the drama! Here is the murky looking satellite

Columbus, Indiana

Today we head off to the Ohio Valley to visit Columbus! No, not THE Columbus, but still just as awesome I’m sure! So I’m told anyways.

At 945pm EST, the temperature at Columbus, IN was 32 degrees under overcast skies. The tail end of a frontal boundary is shifting through the region, with plenty of low-level moisture found in its’ vicinity. It’s not expected to really rain during the morning hours in Columbus, but with temperatures hovering just at or below freezing, the low-lying stratus clouds and areas of fog could squeeze out some patchy freezing drizzle in the area, generally coming to an end by the late-morning hours. Dry weather is then expected for the rest of Wednesday into early Thursday. Another quick-moving but weak low pressure system looks to shift through the region on Thursday, bringing some rain/snow showers in the late morning hours before warming up a bit and changing everything over to all rain. This activity moves east of the area by Thursday evening, then dries out until the main weekend storm hits.

Wednesday: Patchy freezing drizzle in morning, drying out by midday. High 38, Low 30.
Thursday: Rain/snow mix in morning, then becoming rain showers. High 40, Low 29.

TWC: Wednesday: Cloudy, spotty drizzle. High 35, Low 31.
Thursday: Rain/snow mix. High 41, Low 32.

AW: Wednesday: AM freezing drizzle/fog. High 38, Low 30.
Thursday: Periods of rain/snow. High 41, Low 31.

NWS: Wednesday: Patchy freezing drizzle in AM, then drizzle/cloudy. High 36, Low 31.
Thursday: Rain/snow mix in morning, then rain. High 39, Low 31.

WB: Wednesday: Patchy light freezing drizzle until midday. High 35, Low 31.
Thursday: Periods of rain. High 39, Low 33.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with patchy light freezing drizzle. High 36, Low 31.
Thursday: Cloudy with light rain. High 39, Low 31.

FIO: Wednesday: Overcast throughout the day. High 34, Low 31.
Thursday: Light rain starting in morning. High 38, Low 32.

Here we see the broad area of stratus over the OH Valley, although thicker clouds are found off to the south. This will be sticking with us through much of the day Wednesday.

Lawrence, Kansas

This part of the country saw a nasty snow storm this weekend. The biggest blast came to Missouri, but eastern Kansas was in the news because of the AFC Divisional Round game played in Kansas City. What I’m saying is, its too bad this forecast didn’t come up last week.

At 1208AM, CT, Lawrence was reporting a temperature of 29 degrees with overcast skies and some light haze. This is a result of the recent snow, which is now evaporating, with temperatures hovering near freezing.
A sharp ridge angled from the central Plains towards British Columbia will ensure that the surface ridge will stay in place, at least for the next two days. Morning fog will be a concern again, thanks to the evaporation and the clear skies overnight, both tomorrow and Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Morning haze, High 41, Low 26
Tuesday – Fog in the morning, High 47, Low 27

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies, High 38, Low 25
Tuesday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds.  High 46, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds giving way to some sun High 38, Low 23
Tuesday – Areas of morning fog; otherwise, mostly sunny High 45, Low 27

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy freezing fog before 8am, then patchy freezing fog after 5pm. Cloudy, High 35, Low 27
Tuesday – Patchy freezing fog before 10am. Mostly sunny High 43, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 35, Low 24
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. Patchy freezing fog in the morning, High 42, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with patchy freezing fog, High 35, Low 27
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with patchy freezing fog, High 43, Low 27

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 35, Low 25
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 39, Low 29

Foggy, dreary night in eastern Kansas. I think that means it will stay fairly warm overnight, and might help with the high temperatures tomorrow. I see some bust potential across the board. The overnight satellite shows quite a bit of the fresh snow coverage.

Weather Wayback… It always rains in Southen Califonia

We have spent some time discussing the rain that has swept into the west coast, the benefit to the drought stricken and the expectation that it is going to continue. There was a bout of rain for the NFL playoff game between the Rams and Cowboys in Los Angeles on Saturday. Well, this isn’t the first time it’s rained in southern California in January. In fact, a bout of shower activity afflicted San Luis Obispo in late January when we looked at their forecast last. It seemed so unusual for forecasters that even though the precipitation was included, the forecast accuracy was otherwise unimpressive. Accuweather did enough to be considered the champion last January, but I think we are all just too stunned by the smattering of rain they saw.
Actuals: January 24th, High 69, Low 36
January 25th, .01 inches of rain, High 61, Low 46

in late January when we looked at their forecast last. It seemed so unusual for forecasters that even though the precipitation was included, the forecast accuracy was otherwise unimpressive. Accuweather did enough to be considered the champion last January, but I think we are all just too stunned by the smattering of rain they saw.
Actuals: January 24th, High 69, Low 36
January 25th, .01 inches of rain, High 61, Low 46

Grade: C-D

Corpus Christi, Texas

Corpus Christi was hit by the eye of hurricane Harvey in 2017, but somehow was spared the worst, since the torrential rain was ultimately the devastating feature. Fortunately, we aren’t looking for any large scale disasters with this forecast.

At 1151PM, CT, Corpus Christi was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with clear skies and a brisk northwest wind with gusts of 20mph. There was a large synoptic low centered near Memphis, but wind patterns in the area suggest a weak surface low just off shore, helping to induce the brisk winds, though in general, the Texas Gulf Coast was ensconced in high pressure building behind the low.
High pressure is indeed going to develop at the surface, thanks mostly to a stagnated, laminar pattern at the base of a trough. This means that there isn’t likely to be an influx of warmer air, but there will be a stable environment for a couple of days. If the wind can taper off, there maybe a threat for some fog in the mornings.
Tomorrow – Clear, High 60, Low 48
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 46

TWC: Tomorrow – Plentiful sunshine High 62, Low 45
Monday – Cloudy skies. High 57, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy; cooler High 60, Low 44
Monday – Mostly cloudy High 57, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,  High 58, Low 46
Monday – Mostly cloudy High 55, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 47
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 56, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 58, Low 46
Monday – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 55, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 57, Low 45
Monday – Mostly cloudy starting overnight. High 56, Low 48

The forecast looks awfully cool for a place like Corpus Christi. Here is an insight into the fog threat earlier today, which may sneak up on the region again today, from KRIS in Corpus Christi.

Wet and Wintry

The third forecast of the year was the first that was inclement. Scranton was expecting yet another round of wet weather as a big complicated area of low pressure tried to spin from the Great Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and New England. A redeveloped slug of moisture made for a wet day on Tuesday, but cold air brought a few flurries on Wednesday. There were a few precipitation issues from some outlets, but it ultimately came down to temperatures, where the National Weather Service handled the turbulent conditions best.
Actuals: Tuesday – .24″ of rain, High 41, Low 29
Wednesday – Snow reported, not measured, High 39, Low 27

Grade: B-D

Humbled

The forecasts were so good to start the year in Lima, but it was not to be the case in Pueblo. I think we were all riding high after the forecast for Ohio, and looking at a couple of days of high pressure, it seemed like we could coast through the forecast. We were informed pretty early that this would not be the cast. The morning low on Monday was 36, no less than 5 degrees warmer than anyone had in the forecast. Compounding matters was the fact that, upon clearing, temperatures plummeted to 18, at least 4 degrees colder than what anyone had envisioned. The high temperatures were fine though! Accuweather snuck ever so slightly above the carnage and got their first win of 2019.
Actuals: Monday – High 58, Low 36
Tuesday – High 47, Low 18

Grade: C-D

Scranton, Pennsylvania

Let’s see about the weather in northeastern Pennsylvania tonight. It’s been warm and wet for the last several weeks. Will it continue?

At 1254AM, ET, Scranton was reporting a temperature of 29 degrees with overcast skies. Flurries were falling as nearby as Allentown, but the swath of heavy snow is pressing to the east and out of eastern Pennsylvania. A vast area of low pressure lies over the southern part of Hudson Bay, and the heavy snow represents the leading edge of the disturbance.
The upper level trough parenting this low will generate an undercutting surface low over the Great Lakes throughout the day Tuesday. This refocused feature will accelerate and swing through New England on Wednesday, but Tuesday does appear as though it will be filled with light snow and blustery winds.
Tomorrow – Rain snow mix, increasingly windy, High 43, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, with an early mix, with temperatures dropping through the day, High 37, Low 29

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower.  High 45, Low 29
Wednesday – Cloudy skies. Windy during the morning (morning rain). High 42, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Milder; considerable cloudiness, then times of clouds and sun, a shower in the area late in the day High 46, Low 31
Wednesday – Cloudy, windy; a few stray afternoon snowflakes High 42, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, High 45, Low 28
Wednesday – A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, High 39, Low 26

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers and freezing rain in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 42, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers, High 41, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 46, Low 30
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix, High 41, Low 35

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 46, Low 28
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 44, Low 29

I’m not sure we’re going to see temperatures spike quite as warm as many outlets seem to think on Tuesday. Too many clouds, too much terrain. I’m always wrong in the mountains. Here is a look at the radar, with a whole lot of rain headed for the coast.