Morristown, Tennessee

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It’s time to journey to the mountains of eastern Tennessee this afternoon. Technically, I think it’s also northern Tennessee, but who can even say? It’s in that little finger pointing at the Virginia/North Carolina border.

At 1215PM, ET, Morristown was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with clear skies. The tail of a remnant boundary was lingering over the Carolinas, and the Gulf was open to the Ohio Valley. Showers and scattered storms will be possible through the afternoon across the region, though Morristown should remain dry, thanks to the position of the town north and west of the Smokeys, however eyes should stay on the next feature moving into the Northern Plains.
As the boundary moves into the Upper Midwest, flow will redirect to become lightly southwesterly. The boundary itself will remain over the Great Lakes, but the moisture over the southeast will waft towards Morristown. There will be a chance of light showers on Saturday afternoon. As the feature shifts further east, the Gulf will close off, and clear skies will return to eastern Tennessee.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, chance of afternoon showers, High 80, Low 69
Sunday – Early cloudy, then sunny, High 86, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then mainly cloudy during the afternoon High 81, Low 69
Sunday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 88, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; humid; thunderstorms can bring gusty winds and ponding on roadways High 81, Low 69
Sunday – Times of clouds and sun with widely separated thunderstorms; humid High 85, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny High 86, Low 69
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 81, Low 71
Sunday – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the morning. High 87, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers and a chance of storms, High 86, Low 69
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 87, Low 67

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 82, Low 70
Sunday – Light rain showers, High 87, Low 69

I’m surprised the other outlets are calling for rain on Sunday. It seems like it will be a bit of a challenge. Here is the radar, showing a couple of pop up storms in southern Kentucky.

Syracuse, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

A couple of stops in the next several days in New York, with our first down wind of the Great Lakes. I don’t anticipate Lake effect snow this time around.

At 654PM, ET, Syracuse was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 74 degrees. Dew points are also pleasantly situated in the 50s as high pressure has built into the mid-Atlantic. Eyes will be toward the Great Lakes, however, as a cold front moving through Michigan and Wisconsin, bringing showers and storms that are headed for Chicago.
The cold front is tied to an area of low pressure over Hudson Bay, and affiliated with a deep and seasonably strong trough in the Great Lakes The boundary will drift eastward, losing some punch as it moves into dry, stable air over the mid-Atlantic. There will still be a few showers in the area tomorrow afternoon, though not terribly strong. The boundary will shift out of the region for Thursday, with sunnier and even cooler conditions to round out the week.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, a splash of afternoon rain, high 80, Low 61
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 79, Low 61
Thursday – Partly to mostly cloudy High 78, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness with a thunderstorm; gusty winds can accompany any downpour, High 79, Low 59
Thursday – Partly sunny and nice High 78, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Partly sunny, High 81, low 61
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 80, Low 64
Thursday – Partly sunny. High 78, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light showers and a chance of storms, High 81, Low 61
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 59

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 79, Low 61
Thursday – Sunny, High 79, Low 58

Something will indeed be coming out of the Lakes, but it won’t be snow. Not yet. Satellite shows those clouds coming Syracuse’s way.

Jonesboro, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

One of the reasons I like to write the road trip forecasts is because I enjoy taking random road trips. I go to random college or professional sporting events, get a feel for a town or school or team, and see what I can see along the way. It’s a lovely way to see America. With that in mind, I’ve been to Jonesboro, and despite the weather, which was dreary, I enjoyed my time.

At 1053PM, CT, Jonesboro was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with clear skies. The jet flow lies well to the north, and is fairly laminar. Both of these factors are leading to the starry sky tonight across the Diamond State.
The zonal, laminar flow across much of the country is going to reinforce the development of a lee trough. Surface level circulation will be southerly over Arkansas, with a warm front setting up in Missouri. This will prevent showers and storms from drifting southward, and Jonesboro, in southerly flow, will wilt in ongoing heat and humidity.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 100, Low 79
Thursday – Sunny, High 100, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 98, Low 78
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 99, Low 78

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 77
Thursday – Breezy and hot with clouds giving way to some sun; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 78

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 99, Low 78
Thursday – Sunny and hot, High 100, Low 79

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 99, Low 81
Thursday – Sunny. High 98, Low 83

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 78
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 79

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High, 99,, Low 76
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 100, Low 78

Another hot one. I’m including the satellite here to check out the convective activity over in Tennessee.

Norwich, Connecticut

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Off to New England as we reach he dog days of summer. I suspect that many residents in the Norwich area would happily be on their way to Martha’s Vineyard or otherwise on vacation this time of year.

At 852PM, ET, Norwich was seeing a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. The temperatures over Long Island and near the coast in Connecticut were a shade lower as the sun had less time to shine. Left over mid level moisture along the coast has continued to mean clouds from Long Island southward, and with high pressure parked over the Atlantic will keep it in place for a while.
The next feature to keep an eye on is a standing trough in the Great Lakes. While the cold front won’t be moving eastward in any kind of hurry, the little progression there is will draw some of that lingering coastal moisture further north. The mere act of inducing some motion within this moist air mass will lead to some general showers and storms that will eventually reach eastern Connecticut by Thursday evening.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 61
Thursday – Late showers and storms, otherwise mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 59
Thursday – AM Showers, High 88, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83, Low 57
Thursday – Uncomfortably humid with intervals of clouds and sun; an afternoon thunderstorm in parts of the area High 86. Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny (late rain), High 84, Low 58
Thursday – A chance of showers before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 87, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. (late rain) High 85, Low 64
Thursday – Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 87, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 87, Low 68

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 59
Thursday – Light rain showers, High 87, Low 70

There isn’t enough there, in my opinion, to worry about showers tomorrow. It’s barely concerning on Thursday. Satellite shows those clouds along the Mid-Atantic coast.

Fresno, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our forecast takes us to the piping hot Central Valley in California. Right out of the frying pan and into the fire, as they say.

At 653PM, PT, Fresno was reporting a temperature of 102, and smokey skies. The Raleigh Fire is located northeast of town, and smoke is observed at the airport, though the fire is nearly 100% contained.
There is an upper level trough moving through the Pacific Northwest, with a ridge moving into the area to start the work week. With flow becoming less organized, laminar upper level winds will be a bit stronger and more westerly. This would typically mean a bit of relief with more Pacific air and the chance for upper level flow, but lighter winds will mitigate any advantages.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 109, Low 73
Monday – Fair skies, hot, High 110, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 107, Low 71
Monday – Sunny, High 108, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Sweltering heat with blazing sunshine; heat will be dangerous, minimize outdoor activity High 108, Low 71
Monday – Blazing sunshine with the temperature approaching the record of 110 set in 1946; heat will be dangerous, minimize outdoor activity High 109, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot,  High 105, Low 71
Monday – Sunny and hot, high 105, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 103, Low 76
Monday – Sunny. High 106, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 105, Low 71
Monday – Sunny, High 105, Low 71

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 106, Low 73
Monday – Sunny, High 106, Low 72

This is the rare time where nearly everyone was forecasting below model guidance for several of the models. If some of those runs are right, Fresno will easily surpass that 110 record. Here is a map of Fresno with the location of the Raleigh Fire.

Saginaw, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It seems as though life is going to get a bit more interesting in Michigan over the next 24 hours. Let’s see just how interesting it gets in Saginaw.

At 1215AM, ET, Saginaw was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 73 degrees. The dew point was 68, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see some fog overnight. While the SPC has hinted at thunderstorms, potentially strong, all day, the most recent model guidance has started to clarify two distinct batches of storms developing, and one is being seen over the Upper Peninsula, while the other is having a tougher time launching in eastern Wisconsin. A slow moving warm front moving through the area will provide the path for whatever develops to shift to the southeast. With the Wisconsin batch lagging behind, the UP area may take advantage, potentially leading to a higher threat for overnight or early morning severe weather.
While the warm front is the main show, the occluded low pressure center will ensure a threat for a few scattered showers into the afternoon as well. Expect a hot beginning to the work week in Saginaw, even while dodging rain drops. The low pressure center will move towards New England, leaving high pressure to build back in over Michigan on Tuesday with cooler conditions.
Tomorrow – Early morning storms, then mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Potential for severe thunderstorms High 84, Low 66
Tuesday – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late High 77, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Showers and a heavier thunderstorm in the morning; variable clouds, breezy, humid; thunderstorms can bring flooding downpours, hail and damaging wind gusts High 84, Low 68
Tuesday – Variable cloudiness, breezy and humid with widely separated thunderstorms High 80, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Partly sunny (early rain) High 79, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 83, Low 71
Tuesday – Partly cloudy High 81, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 79, Low 67

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 82, Low 67
Tuesday – Rain showers, High 76, Low 66

It’s looking more and more like the heavy storms are going to crop up and pass east of Saginaw. I imagine that will help temperatures sneak up fairly high. Nice work by us avoiding the heat dome!

St. Joseph, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Kansas City has definitely been in the news lately, what with the World Cup playing several matches at Arrowhead Stadium. That’s but a couple hundred miles down river from St. Joseph! As life gets back to normal for western Missouri, what does the weather hold?

At 153AM, CT, St. Joseph was reporting a temperature of 76 with clear skies. Dew points were in the mid 70s as well, remnants of a humid day that may lead to some fog in valleys as dawn approaches. The prevailing flow is not only a ridge, but one that skirts the Canadian border, allowing the warm and moist air of the Gulf to continue wafting into the center of the country.
There is a bit of a perturbation gently moving along the northern Great Lakes. There is a weak boundary toughing some storms off in southern Minnesota. The southward propogation of this system is expected to be slow, but eventually reach Missouri by mid-Sunday, but which point the airmass will be fully ready to pop. Some isolated pre-boundary air mass storms are possible in the afternoon on Sunday, with the cold front moving through the afternoon, brining only a modest change.
Tomorrow (Today?) – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 73
Sunday – Increasing humidity, chance of isolated showers and storms. Breezy, High 95, Low 74

TWS: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 92, Low 73
Sunday – Mostly sunny skies. Hot. High 92, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with plenty of sunshine High 91, Low 73
Sunday – Mostly sunny and humid High 92, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny, High 93, Low 74
Sunday – Sunny, High 93, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 88, Low 77
Sunday – Sunny High 89, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 93, Low 74
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 93, Low 73

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers High 92, Low 73
Sunday – Light rain showers High 92, Low 72

Apologies for the weird timing of this post. On vacation and I have adjusted to the time zone and the rest of the group has not. St. Joseph is fortunate, in that they can avoid the smoke from the Minnesota/Canada border.

Bremerton, Washington

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are going to the top left corner of your map of the United States tonight. I assume your map is like mine, and has Alaska with Hawai’i in their own insets at the bottom of the page.

At 1156AM, PT, Bremerton was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with overcast skies. Temperatures were kept in check by the cloudy skies. A strong jet curled around Vancouver Island into the Pacific Northwest, leading to regionwide instability. As the jet curls inland, steady bands of rain will continue across the Olympic Peninsula and Puget Sound, particularly through tomorrow.
Surface organization is always murky in the Pacific Northwest, so the best indicator of the future precipitation in the region will be the upper level flow. As the jet moves inland, it will weekend rather than successfully advect eastward. Whatever surface circulation lingers will move a bit inland by Sunday, with light shower activity continuing to spin back into the terrain of the Cascades and Olympic Mountains, resulting in ongoing fog and clouds, with intermittent drizzle for Bremerton.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers through the day, High 67, Low 51
Sunday – Isolated showers, with overcast skies and haze, High 66, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. High 68, Low 50
Sunday – Overcast. High 69, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers High 67, Low 51
Sunday – Mostly cloudy High 69, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly between noon and 4pm. Partly sunny, High 64, Low 51
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A chance of rain in the morning then a slight chance of rain late in the morning. A chance of rain in the afternoon High 66, Low 51
Sunday – Mostly cloudy. High 67, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 65, Low 51
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 67, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain Showers, High 66, Low 47
Sunday – Light rain showers, High 67, Low 47

This will be interesting, as Bremerton doesn’t do a great job of reporting rain in their observations. Let’s see how it all plays out! Check this out: I started writing this last night and grabbed a still of the radar then. Not much changed!

Minneapolis, Minnesota

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Minneapolis is a near and dear to my heart. Most of my life, I’ve lived within the town’s orbit, and it’s always a fun occasion to be able to assemble a forecast for the Mill City.

At 415PM, Minneapolis was reporting heavy thunderstorms and a temperature of 63 degrees. A batch of showers and storms has followed a warm front through the day from North Dakota, and is now battering the Twin Cities with heavy rain and some convection. West of this batch of storm activity, more storms were developing underneath the warm front, and ahead of a cold front that was chasing the warm front. These storms have a history of being severe, however given the air modification currently being performed by the complex moving through, they won’t be severe, if they can even hold together, when they reach Minneapolis.
The low pressure moving in the Upper Midwest is backed by a bit of upper level support, however the most kinetic action is related to heat and lee troughing in the High Plains. This will cause the system to dawdle as it moves towards Lake Superior, and redirected moisture towards low pressure in the Plains will sap precipitation potential as the week wears on. Don’t be surprised by a mostly cloudy week, even with rain generally north and east from town.
Tomorrow – Rain ending before sunrise, mostly cloudy, a bit breezy, High 77, Low 60
Thursday – Partly to mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 75, Low 61
Thursday – Cloudy. High 78, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Variable clouds with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 77, Low 60
Thursday – Considerable cloudiness High 75, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 1pm and 3pm. Partly sunny, High 76, Low 60
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 77, Low 60
Thursday – Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 76, Low 60
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 55

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 74, Low 60
Thursday – Overcast, High 74, Low 56

A stormy night that is expected to continue for a while. It’s pretty messy on radar this evening in Minneapolis!

Longview, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The middle of the week has been rife with severe weather. There is more in the mid-Atlantic, but things are finally beginning to look a bit more relaxed. How relaxed in east Texas?

At 1153AM, CT, Longview was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 73. The lingering boundary that has been a significant weather maker in the southeast this week now lay from Jacksonville, Florida to a secondary surface feature southeast of Texarkana. A band of showers and storms has slid southeast of Longview, but a batch of showers continues near Dallas, and a dry afternoon is unlikely.
There is a low level perturbation seated over southern Missouri that is going to continue to enhance shower and storm activity through the day tomorrow. The more significant jet streak is shifting to the east, with a weak ridge snuffing out the weak low in the south central US. Further bringing about some stability to east Texas is a surface system developing in the Front Range late Saturday, shifting into central Plains on Sunday. This will lead to rising heat and humidity, but clearer conditions, with only a couple of pop up thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 83, Low 73
Sunday – Clearing and warmer with isolated showers, High 90, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Cloudy skies late. High 83, Low 72
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy. High 88, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83, Low 73
Sunday – Humid with sunshine and some clouds; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 90, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 7am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny High 90, Low 74
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 83, Low 75
Sunday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy High 89, Low 74

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm High 83, Low 75
Sunday – Thunderstorm High 90, Low 75

Undersold is that with the low pressure developing to the north, it will also be fairly breezy in Longview on Sunday. Just hot wind. Here’s the diminishing storm activity, depicted on radar!