I once had a job where I would issue forecasts regularly for Tunica, Mississippi. It has nothing in common with Utica, except Tunica’s identifier is KUTA, and I had a coworker who regularly called Tunica “Utica”, and that is all I can think of when I think of Utica. I’m sorry, Utica.

At 353PM, ET, Utica was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees and clear skies. Accompanying this warmth and sunshine was a brisk southerly well, importing still more warm air from the southeast. Low pressure is occluded and winding down over James Bay, but is still allowing for the vigorous southerly flow through western New York. Associated showers and storms won’t enjoy the instability they are seeing in southern Ontario right now, but a stray overnight shower in Utica seems likely.
The evening of Independence Day tomorrow looks OK for fireworks. Orphaned moisture in the mid-Atlantic as the low moves from James Bay to Nunavut will linger and ensure some mid level clouds with light winds. Much of the day will be clear on Friday as well, with a return of warm south winds. The next feature will be emerging in the Upper Midwest through this time, and will bring a more likely shot of rain late on Friday.
Tomorrow – Early showers, then mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 69
Friday – Sunny early with a late shower, High 88, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with mostly cloudy conditions later in the day. High 86, Low 70
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 88, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, very warm and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 86, Low 67
Friday – Very warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 88, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 69
Friday – A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon, High 83, Low 67
Friday – Partly sunny (late rain), High 88, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 86, Low 69
Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 88, Low 66

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 83, Low 67
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 63

It looks like a warm start to the holiday weekend in western New York. I hope there and everywhere stays healthy and happy, while saying a little prayer for residents of the West Indies and Jamaica, who will spend the time recovering from Hurricane Beryl. As for the Mid-Atlantic, the satellite is more ominous than the forecast portends.