Tag Archives: Davenport

The first bout of snow is solid, cold

I’m not going to lie. I’m impressed with how accurate the forecast snow totals were for Davenport. The closest was The Weather Service, who said 7″ about, for a storm total, and Davenport officially clocked in with a 6.9″ total.. Not bad! Now, with that addressed, the temperatures were an absolute disaster. The forecast highs were at least 5 degrees too warm on Friday, which meant things got started at a cooler point than expected. More startling was how quickly the temperatures fell off after the system departed. We all thought it would get down to the teens, but the midnight low, thanks to an Arctic flow into a snow covered terrain, was one. One solitary degree. Victoria-Weather missed just as badly at the end of the forecast, but our work towards the beginning of the period allowed us to secure the W.
Actuals: Friday 2.2 inches of snow, High 37, Low 29
Saturday – 4.7 inches of shnow, High 32, Low 1

Grade: D-F

Lynchburg, Virginia to Davenport, Iowa

We’re off on a 2 day drive into the teeth of a snow storm. The drive will cover 844 miles, running from Virginia to Iowa. The milage with this will be 63.6mph, which will mean our first day will be through after 509 miles on the road. That’s a mighty slow pace for a Google trip. We should get going then, right? To make up the time?

DAY ONE (Friday)
Lynchburg
You know, I mentioned that we were going to be driving into the teeth of a strong system, but on Friday, the strong system we drive through will be a strong high pressure system. So, don’t worry about it, is what I’m trying to say. It should be dry, though fairly breezy through the mountain valleys of the Appalachians, and into the Ohio Valley. The day will end before we reach Indianapolis, in Shelbyville, Indiana.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
Saturday will be a bit different. Precipitation, rain, initially, will be reaching Shelbyville not long before we hit the road. The precipitation type will change over to snow somewhat slowly between Indianapolis and the Illinois border, but with a driving wind, it won’t really matter what is falling from the sky. It will splatter the windshield and make visibilities difficult. Snow may wrap up by the time we reach Peoria, or somewhere to the west, but we will be under the threat for some flurries all the way into Davenport. Whether or not we see flurries in western Illinois, it’s going to be very windy. Cold air is coming to the Quad Cities at about the same time we are.
Davenport

Davenport, Iowa

The Quad Cites are where it’s at. Just a fun teaser: This is going to be the first winter storm forecast of the season. Ooooh.

At 752PM, CT, DAvenport was reporting a temperature of 34 degrees and clear skies. Eastern Iowa finds itself south of a strong, gusty area of low pressure, which is cycling in a healthy amount of cold air on the back of a stiff westerly breeze. The upper level trough is broad with a strong jet flowing through the base of it, so cold air isn’t expected to recede despite what will be a mainly pleasant morning tomorrow.
A jet streak embedded within the broader jet stream has developed over southern Idaho. This will lead to some increased vorticity and cyclogenesis, all embedded within a relatively moist, cold environment. Along the jet stream, expect training precipitation to arrive in eastern Iowa tomorrow afternoon , with the sharpest turning in the atmosphere developing in the Upper Mississippi Valley. The system’s heaviest precipitation will stall over eastern Iowa overnight Friday into Saturday, until the surface feature can get organized. The broader wave is quite longwaved, but the embedded feature is shortwaved, and clearing will come shortly after noon on Saturday, but only after around 6″ of snow falls on town.
Tomorrow – Rain snow mix in the afternoon, turning to all snow, High 42, Low 28
Saturday – Heavy snow through the morning, then clearing quickly. High 31, Low 13

TWC: Tomorrow – PM Showers late snow, High 44, Low 27
Saturday – AM snow/Wind (6-9 inches total) High 30, Low 16

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower in places in the afternoon (snow late) High 43, Low 26
Saturday – 1-3 inches of snow early in the morning; windy and colder with clouds giving way to some sun (2-6″ total) High 31, Low 15

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds High 44, Low 28
Saturday – Snow likely before noon. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, (~7″ total) High 31, Low 15

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then cloudy with a 50% chance of light rain in the afternoon. Snow late, High 43, Low 29
Saturday – Blustery, colder. Cloudy with snow likely in the morning, thenn mostly sunny in the afternoon (5-6″) High 31, Low 14

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Chance of Light Wintry Mix High 45, Low 28
Saturday – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Snow Showers High 30, Low 28

FIO: Tomorrow – Mixed precipitation (1–2 in. of snow) starting in the evening. High 44, Low 29
Saturday – Snow (2–5 in.) until evening. High 36, Low 15

The temperatures for WeatherNation don’t go far enough out to get to a midnight low, as everyone else did. They also don’t give snow totals, so we can’t verify against the crowd. That’s just for fun. Isn’t 6″ of snow fun? Take a look at the satellite. The clouds massing in the northwestern US will ultimately turn into tomorrow’s snows.
Davenport

Drought Buster?

A rather robust low-pressure system has traversed the central US over the last couple of days, and is currently making the Eastern Great Lakes a rather breezy place to be. Given the lack of rainfall much of the Central US has suffered lately, it was nice to see Davenport make some of that deficit back up this past weekend. Ryan’s superior temperature prediction for Saturday brought VicWx home the title.

Friday: High 57, Low 33. (Supposed trace of rain, but couldn’t find anything in the metars to support this, so I discounted it).
Saturday: 0.51″ of rain in a thunderstorm. High 67, Low 48.

Grade: A

Davenport, Iowa

Today’s forecast, a regularly scheduled forecast, takes us to the Quad Cities, and the mighty Mississippi.

At 1152AM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with clear skies and a brisk southwest wind. The temperature looks to change soon, as a cold front in northern Iowa, around the Waterloo area, is inducing a 15 degree temperature change across the area.
There are a few returns being detected up near Decorah, but this is more reflective of low clouds than precipitation. Behind that front, tomorrow will bring about some fairly chilly high pressure, but a cutoff trough being absorbed into the mean flow from the southern Rockies will bring about a rapid change. The surface low associated with this system will explode on Saturday into a fast moving, strong area of low pressure. Initially, a warm front will move through the Quad Cities, bringing some rain in the morning. Warmer temperatures and the advancing low in the afternoon will provide a ripe environment for severe weather in the afternoon, and Davenport is unfortunately primed for an late season outbreak, with winds and isolated tornadoes a strong possibility Saturday afternoon, evening and especially late night.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cool, High 57, Low 32
Saturday – Rain early, then warm, followed by the threat for strong thunderstorms, High 71, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 57, Low 33
Saturday – Rain / Thunder. Potential for severe thunderstorms High 72, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and cooler High 56, Low 30
Saturday – A couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; cloudy, breezy and warmer High 73, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 56, Low 35
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms. High 73, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Cooler…sunny.High 56, Low 35
Saturday – Breezy…warmer. Showers and thunderstorm High 73, Low 46

I didn’t think I would be forecasting anymore severe weather outbreaks this year, but it looks like it could be a doozy in Iowa. Decorah and Charles City started reporting light rain since I started writing this post, and you can see very light rain on radar with the front ready to move through.

Oh So Close

Ryan mentioned that the NWS kept precip out of Davenport until after 1AM on Saturday. Unfortunately, for the NWS that is, a rain shower moved in around 11PM Friday night. This messed up their otherwise superior temperature forecast and out of 1st place. V-W and the Weather Channel took advantage of their misstep and tied for the top spot.

Friday: 0.01″ of rain in a light shower. High 59, Low 37.
Saturday: 0.84″ of rain in an early morning thunderstorm. High 48, Low 41.
Forecast Grade: B

Davenport, Iowa to Springfield, Ohio

A nice little one day journey from eastern Iowa to southwestern Ohio is in the works today. It will take about 7 hours to get from Davenport to Springfield, which are about 439 miles apart. We will navigate the Midwest at a pace of 60.5mph. It’s a slow pace, but it’s only one day in the car!


Well, it’s going to rain. The whole trip, the entire length of the trip from the Quad Cities to Davenport will be under the threat for rain. The heaviest rain will certainly fall on us as we are leaving Davenport, and become less intense, and likely less widespread as we head south and east. It will get a little bit warmer, but not much, as we make our way into Springfield. It’s a good thing the plan is to move slowly, because traffic will not be good. Fortunately, Indianapolis is the largest town we travel through. Better luck on the next road trip, right?

Davenport, Iowa

The Quad Cities! That’s the Davenport in this situation, not the piece of furniture.

At 452PM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with sunny skies. A sharp ridge of high pressure has built into the area, which is keeping it breezy but pleasant. The sharpness of the ridge also suggests how fragile it is. A sharp trough over the western US is expected to undercut the ridge and change things up for the Quad Cities this weekend.
The trough will generate a strong area of low pressure over the northern High Plains. The tilt of the trough will mean mostly stratiform rain lifting north into eastern Iowa overnight tomorrow into Saturday. The rain will signal a change in flow as well, with southerly flow driving a warmer air mass towards the Quad Cities on Saturday, however the remnant clouds associated with the system will keep temperatures at the surface from showing any change.
Tomorrow – Late rain, High 58, Low 36
Saturday – Rainy, especially early, and warmer, High 54, Low 40

TWC: Tomrrow – Cloudy skies early. A few showers developing later in the day. High 56, Low 41
Saturday – Rain showers in the morning becoming more intermittent in the afternoon. High 50, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, breezy and cooler with a bit of rain in the afternoon High 56, Low 36
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and breezy with periods of rain, mainly early in the day High 53, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 37
Saturday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers High 50, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Brisk. Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of light rain in the afternoon. High 54, Low 39
Saturday – Cloudy. A chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning…then a slight chance of light rain in the afternoon. High 51, Low 41

The Weather Service keeping rain out until after 1AM… amazing! A look at satellite shows a lot of inclement weather brewing to the west. For now, though, it is generally harmless.

Colorado Springs, Colorado to Davenport, Iowa

You know, it’s a surprisingly short trip from Colorado Springs to the Quad Cities. It’s going to take us a day and a half because of the way we do things around these parts, but people could certainly do 13 hours in one day, right? Maybe not with children or the elderly, but it could be done. It’s a 909 mile drive from location to location that encompasses some very loose speed limits. We’ll average 68.5mph, which is pretty amazing, and will cover a whopping 547 miles after one day. Let’s be on our way!

DAY ONE

At the beginning of the day, it will appear that good fortune is smiling upon us as we head out. Seasonably warm temperatures will grace the High Plains of Colorado as high pressure dominates the center of the country. As we head into Nebraska, however, gray clouds will loom to our northwest and eventually just off to our north. A warm front will develop over South Dakota with a few showers enveloping northern Nebraska. We will avoid the wet weather, but when we arrive in our destination of Pleasant Dale, Nebraska (just west of Lincoln) it will be apparent that our Monday drive won’t be so pleasant…. Dale.

DAY TWO
The system will arrive overnight in Pleasant Dale, which will mean a good chance for some snow or sleet when we set forth from Lincoln. It’s going to come pretty heavy as well, which will mean a slow drive to and through Lincoln and Omaha. Driving at a normal pace, we would be out of the nasty weather by Atlantic, Iowa, but instead we could be contending with some nasty road ways all the way through Des Moines. Temperatures will get above freezing by the time we do reach Atlantic, which means the snow will not accumulate on the roads, which is good news. We will have dark clouds behind us, but the end of the drive in to Davenport will be much safer. Keep both hands on the wheel in Nebraska, though.

A first taste of summer

It’s only late May, but the banks of the Mississippi in Iowa have already seen the temperatures climb to the lower 90s, like in Davenport the past couple of days. Thunderstorms, as I predicted, remained out of Davenport, and the city merely saw a couple days of hot, humid air. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 90, Low 71
Monday – High 92, Low 69

Grade: A