Oh So Close
Posted by Anthony
Ryan mentioned that the NWS kept precip out of Davenport until after 1AM on Saturday. Unfortunately, for the NWS that is, a rain shower moved in around 11PM Friday night. This messed up their otherwise superior temperature forecast and out of 1st place. V-W and the Weather Channel took advantage of their misstep and tied for the top spot.
Friday: 0.01" of rain in a light shower. High 59, Low 37.
Saturday: 0.84" of rain in an early morning thunderstorm. High 48, Low 41.
Forecast Grade: B
Davenport, Iowa to Springfield, Ohio
Posted by Ryan
A nice little one day journey from eastern Iowa to southwestern Ohio is in the works today. It will take about 7 hours to get from Davenport to Springfield, which are about 439 miles apart. We will navigate the Midwest at a pace of 60.5mph. It's a slow pace, but it's only one day in the car!
Well, it's going to rain. The whole trip, the entire length of the trip from the Quad Cities to Davenport will be under the threat for rain. The heaviest rain will certainly fall on us as we are leaving Davenport, and become less intense, and likely less widespread as we head south and east. It will get a little bit warmer, but not much, as we make our way into Springfield. It's a good thing the plan is to move slowly, because traffic will not be good. Fortunately, Indianapolis is the largest town we travel through. Better luck on the next road trip, right?
Davenport, Iowa
Posted by Ryan
The Quad Cities! That's the Davenport in this situation, not the piece of furniture.
At 452PM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with sunny skies. A sharp ridge of high pressure has built into the area, which is keeping it breezy but pleasant. The sharpness of the ridge also suggests how fragile it is. A sharp trough over the western US is expected to undercut the ridge and change things up for the Quad Cities this weekend.
The trough will generate a strong area of low pressure over the northern High Plains. The tilt of the trough will mean mostly stratiform rain lifting north into eastern Iowa overnight tomorrow into Saturday. The rain will signal a change in flow as well, with southerly flow driving a warmer air mass towards the Quad Cities on Saturday, however the remnant clouds associated with the system will keep temperatures at the surface from showing any change.
Tomorrow - Late rain, High 58, Low 36
Saturday - Rainy, especially early, and warmer, High 54, Low 40
TWC: Tomrrow - Cloudy skies early. A few showers developing later in the day. High 56, Low 41
Saturday - Rain showers in the morning becoming more intermittent in the afternoon. High 50, Low 41
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy, breezy and cooler with a bit of rain in the afternoon High 56, Low 36
Saturday - Mostly cloudy and breezy with periods of rain, mainly early in the day High 53, Low 40
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 37
Saturday - A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers High 50, Low 40
WB: Tomorrow - Brisk. Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of light rain in the afternoon. High 54, Low 39
Saturday - Cloudy. A chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then a slight chance of light rain in the afternoon. High 51, Low 41
The Weather Service keeping rain out until after 1AM... amazing! A look at satellite shows a lot of inclement weather brewing to the west. For now, though, it is generally harmless.
Colorado Springs, Colorado to Davenport, Iowa
Posted by Ryan
You know, it's a surprisingly short trip from Colorado Springs to the Quad Cities. It's going to take us a day and a half because of the way we do things around these parts, but people could certainly do 13 hours in one day, right? Maybe not with children or the elderly, but it could be done. It's a 909 mile drive from location to location that encompasses some very loose speed limits. We'll average 68.5mph, which is pretty amazing, and will cover a whopping 547 miles after one day. Let's be on our way!
DAY ONE
At the beginning of the day, it will appear that good fortune is smiling upon us as we head out. Seasonably warm temperatures will grace the High Plains of Colorado as high pressure dominates the center of the country. As we head into Nebraska, however, gray clouds will loom to our northwest and eventually just off to our north. A warm front will develop over South Dakota with a few showers enveloping northern Nebraska. We will avoid the wet weather, but when we arrive in our destination of Pleasant Dale, Nebraska (just west of Lincoln) it will be apparent that our Monday drive won't be so pleasant.... Dale.
DAY TWO
The system will arrive overnight in Pleasant Dale, which will mean a good chance for some snow or sleet when we set forth from Lincoln. It's going to come pretty heavy as well, which will mean a slow drive to and through Lincoln and Omaha. Driving at a normal pace, we would be out of the nasty weather by Atlantic, Iowa, but instead we could be contending with some nasty road ways all the way through Des Moines. Temperatures will get above freezing by the time we do reach Atlantic, which means the snow will not accumulate on the roads, which is good news. We will have dark clouds behind us, but the end of the drive in to Davenport will be much safer. Keep both hands on the wheel in Nebraska, though.
A first taste of summer
Posted by Ryan
It's only late May, but the banks of the Mississippi in Iowa have already seen the temperatures climb to the lower 90s, like in Davenport the past couple of days. Thunderstorms, as I predicted, remained out of Davenport, and the city merely saw a couple days of hot, humid air. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday - High 90, Low 71
Monday - High 92, Low 69
Grade: A
Davenport, Iowa
Posted by Ryan
Off to the Quad Cities for this likely to be warm forecast. Enjoy.
At 552PM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with clear skies. A warm front that has developed through the morning has lifted through the Quad Cities, and Davenport was several degrees warmer than a few sites just off to the northeast of the city. The system is dong an excellent job drawing hot, humid air in from the south, and the temperature dichotomy should make for some interesting weather tomorrow and Monday, though most of it will stay northwest of Davenport.
An unseasonably strong jet trough over the Rockies is generating the area of low pressure in the Dakotas that is drawing the hot air north into Davenport. A ridge in the east is the stronger system, however, and is doing an excellent job of blocking any systems that will attempt to shift east. As a result, the jet will operate as a conveyor belt, with the next system setting up over Nebraska and following a similar track through the Dakotas. The result for Davenport will be even more warm air imported from the south.
Tomorrow - Partly cloudy and warm, High 90, Low 68
Monday - Continued warm with partly to mostly cloudy skies, High 91, Low 70
TWC: Tomorrow - Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray thunderstorm is possible. High 89, Low 68
Monday - Slight chance of a thunderstorm High 92, Low 69
AW: Tomorrow - Breezy, very warm and more humid with some sun; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in the area High 89, Low 65
Monday - Breezy, hot and humid with times of clouds and sun; an afternoon thunderstorm in parts of the area High 93, Low 66
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloud High 89, Low 66
Monday - Mostly sunny High 90, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow -Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 89, Low 66
Monday - Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 90, low 69
Everyone else is calling for thunderstorms, but if they form, I think they will be on the other side of the Mississippi, and if they do develop, they won't be terribly organized. Here is the satellite. There is a tornado watch in eastern South Dakota.
