Tag Archives: Denver

Thunderstorms in the area

On both Tuesday and Wednesday, Denver International Airport reported thunderstorms, but between the two days, there was only a trace of rain. Meanwhile, downtown…Out in the prairies, though, it was mostly dry and several degrees warmer. Temperatures were up in the mid-90s in the afternoons, while they dropped to the 50s in the afternoon. The hailstorm downtown is a good reminder that those High Plains and Front Range storms can form with some serious updrafts. The Weather Service and WeatherNation tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Tuesday – Trace of rain in thunderstorms, High 93, Low 57
Wednesday – Thunderstorms reported, not measured. High 92, Low 56

Grade: B-C

Denver, Colorado

There are some strong storm is erupting in the central High Plains this evening, will they be a problem for the Mile High City? Well, let’s investigate..

At 653PM, MT,, Denver was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with mostly sunny skies. There was a field of thunderstorms that started east of DIA and have now shifted into Kansas and Nebraska that was appearing brightly on satellite. There is still a tornado watch in effect for far northeastern Colorado as an offshoot of this activity, though it had mostly deteriorated around Denver. Expect a few isolated cells as the cap wears down as the night cools off. .
There is a brisk northwest flow over the Rockies, which is leading to the development of a lee trough in Colorado. A surface vorticity maximum will ripple through the Front Range of Wyoming towards the northern end of that lee wave, which will help to touch off thunderstorms in what will be a juicy environment. The surface low will be too close to the mountains for any of the unstable, juicy air to cycle south to Denver, rendering the area dry tomorrow until the cap weakens and breaks late in the evening.  After the surface feature moves away from the mountains on Wednesday, there will be an increase in surface upsloping around Denver. The prevailing northwesterly flow will mean a high shear environment, and while many of the storms will be high based, they will also have very tall tops, meaning vivid lightning and some gusty winds for Wednesday, even if rainfall is minimal at the back side of the surface low.
Tomorrow – Isolated late evening thunderstorms, High 94, Low 64
Wednesday – Thunderstorm activity weaker but more widespread, High 92, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray thunderstorm is possible. High 93, Low 61
Wednesday – 
Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 92, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 91, Low 58
Wednesday – Periods of clouds and sun with widely separated thunderstorms in the afternoon High 88, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 58
Wednesday – A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, High 88, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, A 10 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91, Low 63
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 88, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 93, Low 57
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 88, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. HIgh 92, Low 59
Wednesday –  Drizzle starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 91, Low 62

Here is the satellite, discussing those complexes headed towards Kansas as I was discussing, but since I started working on this, a couple of thunderstorms have popped up outside of town, including a severe cell east of Greeley. I should note one thing about the weather too: When you get air moving up hill, it gets HOT.

Denver

The calm before the storm

The next three days are going to be rather stormy in Denver thanks to a standing lee trough and juuuust enough turbulence in the atmosphere over the Plains. Ahead of that though? The past two days have been real charmers for the Mile High City. The temperatures topped out in the low 80s, and it was dry enough that it was comfortable at night for sleeping. Victoria-Weather erred a bit on the cool side on Monday, and generally hedged towards a perfect forecast, but will settle for 2 degrees of error and a vicory in Denver.
Actuals: Sunday – High 84, Low 48
Monday – High 80, Low 50

Grade: A

Denver, Colorado to Canton, Ohio

I’m a little surprised, honestly. This is a 2 1/2 day trip, and I would have thought that, without a doubt, it would be over in under 2. The two cities are 1376 miles apart, and as we are taking a little more than 2 1/2 days to cover the ground, it will take us a full day to get 520.4 miles, at a rate of 65mph. Let’s cover the Plains and check in by Wednesday!

DAY ONE
denver

It’s going to be fairly warm in eastern Colorado and western Nebraska through the day tomorrow. Lee troughing has come to the High Plains, and it is being aided by an upper level ridge. This means an aggressive warm up, along with a turbulent atmosphere at the surface. There will be midlevel clouds throughout the day, along with some often breezy conditions, but it should remain dry until we reach Lincoln, at which point we will run into the actual warm front. Conditions will be more overcast as the turbulence will finally breach the weaker cap, with some embedded showers and storms possible. The end of the day will be in Gretna, just southwest of Omaha. It’s very possible that we don’t see any rain until we’ve stopped for the night.

DAY TWO
As the lee trough tries to emerge and make something of itself in the Plains, it will evelop a completely unsustainable cold front that will have only a weak cold pool and will lie east to west from southern Michigan to Iowa. Strong thunderstorms are definitely not expected, but some showers and embedded thunder will be a possibility after we pass through Peru, Illinois. Some showers will continue to be in the forecast until we reach Chesterton, Indiana, south of Lake Michigan, and the stop for Tuesday evening.

DAY THREE
The system will be invigorated by the Great Lakes and Atlantic moisture it will be moving into. We’re looking at a fairly rainy 5 hours from Chesterton to Canton, and we will be getting deeper and deeper into the shower activity as we travel, so the chances will be increasing that it will be raining as we approach Canton.
Canton

Denver, Colorado

And we are off again on another forecasting adventure. Today’s trip takes us to the Mile High City, Denver, Colorado. Are we ready?

At 153PM, MT, Denver was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 64 degrees. Shower activity littered the local radar imagery, no heavier than a line moving out of Wyoming into northern Colorado east of Fort Collins, though additional cells were cropping up from around Denver to Colorado Springs. The activity was orographic in origin and wasn’t terribly convective, with just rain falling sans lightning.
The activity will continue through the afternoon, but as an atmospheric ridge moves out of the mountain ridge that is the Rockies, the mechanical induction of showers over the region will be terminated, and the mechanical heating of the local air mass to begin. Expect a pair of sunny, significantly warmer days on Sunday and Monday. The ridge will flatten out, and the warm airmass wil have to do the work of keeping Denver toasty, as the downslope winds will taper off.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warmer, High 84, Low 49
Monday – Mosdly sunny, High 80, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 85, Low 48
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 82, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 83, Low 45
Monday – Partly sunny and delightful High 84, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny high 84, low 47
Monday – Sunny, High 82, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Warmer. High 80, Low 47
Monday -Mostly sunny. High 81, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 84, Low 48
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 84, low 52

A look at the radar makes things seem ominous, but I assure you, they are not.
Denver

Wenatchee, Washington to Denver, Colorado

Well, if this isn’t an appropriate trek. It’s not Seattle to Denver, but this Wenatchee to Denver trip is a pretty close approximation of a trek between this year’s Super Bowl competitors. This trip is going to take a long two days, covering 1262 miles. If the weather holds, we will maintain a pace of 68.9mph. That’s pretty good. That kind of pace means 551 miles on Friday, with the rest on Saturday, just in time to watch the big game.

DAY ONE
Wenatchee
Flow will continue to be westerly off of the Pacific even as an area of low pressure dives south towards Colorado. There won’t be much going on in the valleys, except for clouds and fog, but as we ascend the mountains of the northern Rockies, we will have chances for falling snow on I-90. This will be a problem all day on Friday, because there won’t be any clearing and there are a lot of mountains in Washington, Idaho and western Montana. We will call it a day in Manhattan, Montana. I assume it’s just like the one in New York.

DAY TWO
Flurries will become more widespread as cold air sinks south. Even as we get away from the mountains in Montana and the Front Range of Wyoming and Colorado, snow showers will be possible. There won’t be a well organized system producing this activity, so we won’t be contending with gusty winds or a blizzard or anything like that, but the constantly refreshed coating on the road will mean we should take it easy. The snow will become much lighter as we reach Cheyenne and continue to Denver but there will be a flurry in the forecast for when we arrive in Bronco country.
Denver

Dry air leads to stale forecasts

This was a rough set of forecasts for the stable of forecast outlets that we review here at The Weather Blog. Dew points barely got to 5 degrees in Denver, which allowed the clear nights in the Mile High City to become extremely chilly. Overnight lows were only in the teens when there were forecasts as warm as 32 degrees for morning lows each day. There was at least one forecast that was 10 degrees off for every outlet. Things did not go well for meteorologists. The Weather Service had the best forecast, and even that was extremely poor.
Actuals: Monday, High 36, Low 19
Tuesday – High 59, Low 15

Grade: D

Denver, Colorado

It’s always snow season in Denver, so I guess that isn’t terribly special. Of course, it’s always thunderstorm season there too. Funny town, Denver.

At 353PM, MT, Denver was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with a very dry downslope into a lee trough. This trough is going to feed a developing Panhandle hooker developing later this week.
Aloft, the pattern is for ridging. High pressure will continue over the Plains, but a clip of westerly flow sinking over the Rockies will lead to reinforcing dry, seasonably warm air for the Mile High City.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 48, Low 26
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 24

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 42, Low 33
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny High 58, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Colder with times of clouds and sun High 46, Low 29
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and warmer High 61, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing High 43, Low 26
Tuesday – Sunny High 61, Low 26

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of flurries in the morning. High 42, Low 27
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 61, Low 25

Ooh, Weatherbug going with a little bit of snow. Looking at satellite, I can assure you, there is nothing terribly exciting going on here.

Denver, Colorado to Bay City, Michigan

It’s 2 1/2 days between the foothills of the Rockies and the shore of Lake Huron. Our pace will be 66.3mph, which is pretty good, and will get us 530 miles the first two days, which is great. Thank goodness for freeways in the Plains. Lets head to the Great Lakes.

DAY ONE

There is a slow moving boundary moving through the Upper Mid est, and frankly, it’s bringing a bit more rain to the area than I was expecting, certainly. This boundary is bringing some clear weather behind it, which will do a good job of stabilizing the Plains. We will spend the day driving through a sunny Nebraska, with some cooler temperatures than we may have been used to. There will be some clouds filtering back in as we approach Lincoln, with our Sunday destination about an hour or two beyond that in Chalco, on the outskirts of Omaha.
DAY TWO
I drew the map last Friday, and admittedly, I just confused Bay City and Benton Harbor, at opposite corners of the Lower Peninsula. Our second day will end closer to Benton Harbor in the city of Gordon Beach, Michigan. Along the way, we will mostly be behind the front through Illinois. We may catch up to the drizzly, rainy stuff around Michigan City, Indiana. It will likely be cloudy as we cross the Michigan border and stop at Gordon Beach.
DAY THREE
We won’t catch up to the front at the end of the day this time around! We will make it to Bay City with no problems, and enjoy some serous sunshine in beautiful Bay City (and all of Michigan in between)

Unpleasant results

Temperatures along the Front Range tend to get away from forecasters, and those from Denver were no exception. The highs were warmer than expected by several degrees, and the temperature cooled markedly on Friday, into single digits. It even snowed at the airport, so we knew there were a few clouds. It was just a function of winds playing with mountains, and non standard days, and forecasting in the mountains is stupid. I say this even though V-W had the top ‘cast.
Actuals: Thursday, High 58, Low 26
Friday – .30″ of snow, High 45, Low 15

Grade: D