College Station, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

East Texas is always a haven of interesting weather. How interesting will it be this week?

At 1253PM, CT, College Station was reporting a temperature of 90 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A brisk southerly wind imported moisture from the Gulf, leading to a dew point in the mid 70s, and the general cloudiness of the region.
Low pressure in the lee of the Rockies will trend towards dissipation over the next 48 hours, which will snuff out the brisk south winds, leading to a much clearer, and likely much warmer mid-week, even as moisture lingers in the atmosphere.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 78
Wednesday – Hotter and sunny, High 97, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy, High 93, Low 79
Wednesday – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals, High 95, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 93, Low 80
Wednesday – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 93, Low 80

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 94, Low 79
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 78

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 80
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 80

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 79
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 78

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 94, Low 78
Wednesday – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 96, Low 77

Oppressive. Here is a look at the satellite imagery, with clouds across Gulf Coast Texas.

Do you remember Cristobal?

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This forecast, issued on the 11th for Fayetteville, came so long ago that Tropical Storm Cristobal was still mentioned in the text. While this forecast was for North Carolina, the tropical feature wasn’t a major influence on the forecast, but a lingering cold front and a return of hot humid air was. The Weather Channel was the top forecaster way back in the middle of the month.
Actuals: June 12th – .02 inches of rain, High 83, Low 69
June 13th – High 84, Low 66

Grade: A-B

Scorcher

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This has been a weird month for me. It seems strange during this period in history to say I’ve been very busy, but those are the facts. You might not remember what west Texas was like back in the beginning of the month, but I can tell you that, unequivocally, San Angelo was hot, particularly on June 8th. That wasn’t a big surprise though. In fact, none of the hot, sunny weather was a surprise during our forecast period, as everyone came through with pretty good numbers. Nobody was better than Weatherbug, though, gaining a victory.
Actuals: June 8th – High 104, Low 71
June 9th – High 96, Low 75

Grade: A-B

The summer jet is here

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The tornado season in the southern Plains was a lot quieter than in recent years, and was quieter than normal in general. This is welcome news to all, certainly. We are through May, the peak of the season around Oklahoma City, and well into June, often the time of year things peak in the Upper Midwest. We had some derecho activity in the Black Hills and High Plains in recent weeks, with strong thunderstorms tied in with Cristobal closer to the Great Lakes, but the beginning of June hasn’t been terribly traumatic either.

Strong thunderstorms will be possible as long as there is heat and humidity, however the organization for a large scale tornado outbreak requires some clashing of air masses, which only happens when cold air can invade from Canada. This year, those incursions haven’t been as regular, and 90 degree temperatures seem to be here to say.

For posterity, here is a look at the last bit of a legitimate jet streak that we will see through the rest of the model output, and perhaps for several weeks. This map represents tomorrow morning.

It will create some severe weather in the Dakotas tomorrow, with a little bit of a cool down behind a cold front, but then, the jet and the cold air will reside comfortably in Canada and the Arctic.

Fayetteville, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are a couple of Fayettevilles of note in this country of ours. For today, we will visit the North Carolinian version of the two.

At 953PM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 76, with an incredibly sultry dew point of 73. The exhaustingly humid air was ahead of a line of storms extending from Raleigh to Norman and west towards Norwood, along which there were some severe gusts. These storms would likely inch into Fayetteville before the night was through.
The wet weather is tied to a slowing cold front, associated with the remnants of Cristobal, who is now moving through Hudson Bay towards Baffin Island. This will lend to some lingering showers and storms in and around eastern North Carolina tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. Robust surface high pressure is moving in from the north, but an upper level trough is going to generate a surface perturbation that will ripple along the southern flank of the ridge, and will reinvigorate the threat for showers and storms in eastern North Carolina on Saturday. Unfortunately, that truly crisp air looks unlikely to make a lasting impression.
Tomorrow – Isolated storms, otherwise muggy and mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, chances of rain and storms, High 83, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 82, Low 70
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 84, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover and humid with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; watch for flooding High 83, Low 72
Saturday – Cloudy most of the time with a shower or heavy thunderstorm in the area; watch for flooding High 85, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly cloudy High 83, Low 72
Saturday – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Partly sunny High 84, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 81, Low 72
Saturday – Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 82, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 83, Low 71
Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 84, Low 67

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning. High 82, Low 71
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 82, Low 66

Some mixed messaging with the forecasts to round out the week. Rain? No? We’ll see! The radar for tonight continues to look active, though.

Dry days before Cristobal

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Jonesboro was a hot, dry place last weekend, which was more than could be said of the beginning of the work week. Cristobal tracked through the Lower Mississippi Valley, and brought oodles of rainfall to northeastern Arkansas. The weekend, as I noted, was hot and dry however. There had been a hint at some precipitation that never materialized on Saturday, which meant that Forecast.IO was able to claim a victory for the first forecast of June.
Actuals: Saturday – High 92, Low 74
Sunday – High 94, Low 74

Grade: A-B

San Angelo, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

West Texas always provides for an interesting forecast in May. We’ve missed that month by a week. Does that mean we miss out on a particularly wild forecast? Let’s find out.

At 251PM CT, San Angelo was reporting a temperature of 96 degrees with clear skies. Tropical Storm Cristobal was moving ashore in eastern Louisiana, and while he wasn’t going to make a direct impact on west Texas, the redirected flow of moisture into the region, making skies even crisper.
Cristobal is going to continue to move northward, while angling to the east, and will continue to leave west Texas in a drier regime, free of the threat of convection for the beginning of the workweek. An impulse moving out of the central Rockies on Tuesday will provide a shot of cooler air, and probably a threat of some gusty winds later in the day, but in the absence of moisture, thunderstorms are unlikely.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 104, Low 70
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. Near record high temperatures. High 105, Low 71
Tuesday – Sunny 98, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 106, Low 70
Tuesday – Breezy in the a.m.; otherwise, sunny and hot; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 99, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 105, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunny and hot High 98, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 105, Low 71
Tuesday – Sunny, High 97. Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 105, Low 71
Tuesday – Sunny, High 101, Low 74

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day High 104, Low 70
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 96, Low 72

Goodness gracious, is that hot. Typically, for a hot dry west Texas forecast, we don’t quite have this dramatic a satellite image. Here is Cristobal!

Jonesboro, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I was in Jonesboro in March last year, and though I only stopped briefly, I thought it was a neat little town. During March of tis year, a tornado went through town, setting it as an example of how cities would respond to severe weather during the pandemic, and Jonesboro passed with flying colors. Hopefully nothing as terrible this weekend!

At 956AM, CT, Jonesboro Regional Airport missed it’s observation, however nearby Walnut Ridge was reporting fair skies with a temperature 83 degrees. A severe line of thunderstorms was moving through Corning, headed towards Marmaduke and Rector, and there was a chance for some shower activity this morning in Jonesboro. The thunderstorm activity is due to some local mesoscale forcing, it should be fairly quiet this afternoon.
Jonesboro’s weather this weekend looks to be in response to two large features, a developing low in the high plains, and tropical storm Cristobal. General early summer convection will be snuffed out by Cristobal, but as low pressure emerges in Montana, moisture entrainment will be reinvigorated. A few showers and storms will be possible on Saturday afternoon as a result, but as Cristobal arrives along the Louisiana coast, moisture will be drawn away from town to conclude the weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon, High 94, Low 75
Sunday – Sunny and still quite warm, High 94, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 95, Low 73
Sunday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 94, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, warm and humid; a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 94, Low 75
Sunday – Warm with sun and areas of high clouds High 94, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny, High 92, Low 71
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunny, High 93, Low 76
Sunday – Sunny, High 83, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 92, Low 72
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 73

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 95, Low 74
Sunday – Humid throughout the day. High 94, Low 75

Strange to see Weatherbug go warmer than the Weather Service. I went with a warmer Sunday than Saturday because of the clouds I expect on Saturday. The SPC issued a watch for this line as I was writing this post. Technically, Jonesboro is under a watch until 6pm, but I’m sure they will be cut out within a couple of hours.