For as heavily as the northeast has been impacted by the weather this year, and all the talk we get every winter of nor’easters and what not, the little round of showers that passed through on early Wednesday morning is almost mythological. The 5 hundredths of an inch that came to Portland on Wednesday morning before the sun was up registered only in the observations at the airport. For the first time in November, the win didn’t go to Victoria-Weather, but rather to Weatherbug. The big differentiator was the low temperature forecasts, as the low temperatures were much cooler than expected. Actuals: Tuesday – High 66, Low 32 Wednesday – .05 inches of rain, High 56, Low 38
We are forecasting for Portland, Maine mere days after verifying a forecast for Portland, Oregon. I have nothing to add to that, but felt as though I needed to acknowledge it.
At 751PM, ET, Portland was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with clear skies. In what can only be described as an upset victory, New England was entirely under clear skies on this early November evening. The most recent Gulf Stream storm was well off the coast, and actually helping to inhibit moisture for the next system working its way across Hudson Bay. That feature over Hudson Bay, while limited in potential precipitation, is still backed by good upper level support and substantial surface reflection in terms of temperature and lack of moisture. Tonight will ultimately be a foggy one for Portland and most of coastal Maine, however the cold front will bring first a spot of light rain overnight Tuesday to Wednesday, with a chance for cooler crisper air after the morning low clouds clear out on Wednesday. Tomorrow – AM fog, then mostly sunny, Light rain possible rain before midnight High 58, Low 37 Wednesday – Light rain through the morning, becoming sunny, High 57, Low 38
TWC: Tomorrow – Plentiful sunshine. High 60, Low 37 Wednesday – Showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 55, Low 42
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; great day to be outside High 57, Low 35 Wednesday – Clouds breaking, a shower possible High 55, Low 41
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 60, Low 40 Wednesday – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 55, Low 40
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 32 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing (rain early) High 53, Low 39
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 41 Wednesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 55, Low 45
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 60, Low 39 Wednesday – Light rain overnight and in the morning. High 57, Low 46
It’s going to be a nice couple of days in Portland, and the rain will even have the decency to come overnight. Look how beautiful New England is tonight.
Portland certainly did not miss the rainfall last week, which makes it fairly impressive, in a way, that our forecast fell between the blasts of bomb cyclone and atmospheric river. In fact, on the days of October 27th and 28th, there was only a combined .03 inches of rain. The cloud cover kept temperatures from ranging a whole lot on the 27th, but then, with significantly less activity on the 28th,they really blossomed, hitting 69 degrees. Accuweather did a good job figuring all of this out ahead of time, successfully winning this forecast, notably with the warmest high temperatures on the 28th. Actuals: October 27th – .03 inches of rain, High 58, Low 52 October 28th, Trace of rain, High 69, Low 53
Two cities that are slightly inland, but have been pummeled by extremely heavy rain in the last week. They seem similar, but are separated by 2884 miles. We will take 5 days to cover all this ground, including a really long day at the end, moving at a pace of 67mph, and we will cover about 536.5 miles a day for the first 4 days of the week. If there is anything nasty coming this week, we will sure see it on this trip.
DAY ONE (Thursday)
The next wave of wet weather moving into the Pacific Northwest will really arrive on shore overnight tonight, though rain and some mountain snow has continued to fall from Portland to the Cascades. The wind and precipitation will be heavier through the morning as far east as Biggs Junction than it has been today, but then, it will cut off. The system will be angled towards the north, and should leave the rest of our route on Thursday unmolested. We’ll stop in Wendell, Idaho which is northwest of Twin Falls, for the night.
DAY TWO (Friday) A ridge is setting up over the Rockies for late in the week, and that coincides pretty sweetly with our trek through the region. Idaho, Utah and Wyoming will be dry on Friday, with seasonable warmth and sunshine. We’ll make it to Arlington, Wyoming, northwest of Laramie on Friday.
DAY THREE (Saturday) The low pressure feature that was arriving on shore as we attempted to leave Portland is going to ride over the ridge as we head east. It will feature a mostly inactive cold front diving into the northern High Plains on Saturday as we cross the Nebraska prairies. We will make it to Lincoln, where we will stop for the night, amid increasing breezes and temperatures ready to cool down. Now, my alma mater, the Purdue Boilermakers are playing in Lincoln on Saturday, but I swear this is just a coincidence.
DAY FOUR (Sunday) A cold front is going to be moving at about our pace through Iowa and northern Illinois, but this is probably a good thing. It looks like it will be dry throughout the drive, but will instead just give us a nice little tailwind. Sure, it will feel chilly when we stop for gas, but that gas will come with better mileage! Of course, the stop and go of the Chicago area will slow us down, and we will make it to Hobart, Indiana, just across the border, leaving one final, albeit lengthy day to wrap this bad boy up.
DAY FIVE (Monday) That crisp breeze will be our companion, only helped, surely, but the Great Lakes to our north. The Appalachians in Pennsylvania will bring respite from the wind, and ultimately the cold, as the East Coast looks to mostly avoid the worst of the cold air brought by the area of low pressure quickly marching towards Hudson Bay. Trenton will be experiencing some partly cloudy skies with southerly breezes when we arrive, a far cry from what they saw last weekend
Our first forecast of the workweek, and perhaps the last of October (I don’t know that, just how slowly I operate) takes us to the teeth of a bomb cyclone/atmospheric river, and a whole lot of climate buzzwords.
At 553AM, PT, Portland was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with light rain. The Portland metropolitan area was still getting soaked, The rainfall in the Pacific Northwest is ongoing west of the Cascades, but at a lessened rate than it has over the last few days. The strong system in the Gulf of Alaska has moved towards the Panhandle near Sitka and Juneau, which has decreased the westerly flow, but the low level moisture is still available, and the flow is enough that the Cascades will still see steady precipitation with more intermittent rain in Portland. While all this is good news, it will take until the middle of the day on Wednesday to really wind down, so occasional breezes and rain will be a fixture today and through the beginning of tomorrow. Wednesday afternoon will be the nicest stretch of the forecast, as a secondary, but weaker reinforcing wave is expected to emerge off the Oregon Coast, arriving overnight Wednesday to Thursday. This feature will take a direct shot at the Olympic Peninsula, but Portland will see more rain and wind, especially in the evening on Thursday as the next round slides ashore. This second round will bring a warmer ridge northward, and some warming should be anticipated late. Tomorrow – Rain in the morning, a bit of clearing late, High 60, Low 50 Thursday – Rain, maybe a rumble of thunder in the evening, High 65,Low 52
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional light rain in the afternoon. High 57, Low 51 Thursday – Rain showers in the morning will evolve into a more steady rain in the afternoon High 65, Low 53
AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover with a little rain High 58, Low 51 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers HIgh 67, Low 54
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely before 2pm, then rain likely after 2pm. Cloudy, High 58, Low 50 Thursday – Rain. High 64, Low 50
WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely until afternoon, then rain likely late in the afternoon, High 55, Low 50 Thursday – Rain, High 64, Low 52
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 58, Low 50 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 64, Low 53
FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain throughout the day. High 60, Low 48 Thursday – Light rain throughout the day. High 62, Low 57
We are all over the place in what we expect will happen in Portland over the next couple of days. I’m very interested in seeing how it all plays out.