Backwards

I wrote the forecast for Fayetteville before I wrote the post about cold fronts failing to take hold in the center of the country. That should tell you something about how this forecast went. Sure, there was a weak boundary sinking through the area earlier this week, but I thought it would bring a bit of northerly flow and some more comfortable air to northwest Arkansas. Instead, temperatures went up by a couple of degrees as the temperatures simply reflected the amount of rain that was seen in the day. A heavy AM thunderstorm on Sunday helped temperatures stay below 90, while they climbed over that mark on Monday, a drier day. The top forecast was split between Accuweather and the Weather Service.
Actuals: Sunday – .28″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 89, Low 73
Monday – .03″ of rain, High 92, Low 72

Grade: A-C

Laredo, Texas to Fayetteville, Arkansas

It’s time for another road trip. This route takes us from one state to another that borders another, but we are going to cut through a third to get there. The drive covers about a day and a half, and is 762 miles long. There will be an ample amount of time spent on I-35, which will allow for a pace of 62.9mph. Not as fast as you expected? Well, that’s because of some off – interstate driving through Oklahoma. We’ll work out about 503 miles of driving on Tuesday, with the remainder on Wednesday.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Laredo, Texas (via Britannica.comdn

Our day will start from the Mexican border, and take us north through Texas on 35. We will abandon 35 as we head through the Dallas Metroplex and head for the Red River. There is a tail of a weak boundary sagging south through Texas that will trigger an isolated shower or thunderstorm generally north of the Austin area. Nothing severe or long lasting, but just enough to dampen the pavement from time to time. Just before we arrive at the Red River crossing, we will stop for the night in Denison.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
As the tail of that boundary drifts further south, it will clear the air in Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Well, not clear it, so much as bottle up the shower and thunderstorm threat to the south of our route. Be prepared, it’s going to be hot and miserable in Fayetteville when we arrive. Find air conditioning.

Fayetteville, Arkansas

Fayetteville, Arkansas

Arkansas has a surprising number of cities that we can drop forecasts for. The Northwestern Arkansas corridor is definitely more lively than one would normally be lead to believe.

At 953PM, CT, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with clear skies and dew points also parked in the upper 70s. It is a surely uncomfortable night which will see some haze across the region by morning. There are heat advisories out across the region, except in the Fayetteville area, where terrain and foliage will help blunt the high temperatures.
Low pressure in the Hudson Bay area is the only particularly well organized system in North America, and it is dangling a generally ineffectual boundary through the heart of the country. It is peeling back dew points a bit, and promoting a moist flow through the Lower Mississippi Valley northward, and will continue to do that through the day Sunday. The weak boundary will arrive in town by evening, and may lead to a more comfortable Monday, with isolated thunderstorms a distinct possibility throughout the day on Monday, but also in the evening on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. High 92, Low 73
Monday – Mostly cloudy, scattered showers and storms, High 89, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then partly cloudy late High 92, Low 72
Monday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 92, Low 73
Monday – Humid with more clouds than sun; an afternoon thunderstorm High 91, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 93, Low 73
Monday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 92, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. High 90, Low 75
Monday – Partly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 93, Low 72
Monday – Partly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 92, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, Low 73
Monday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 72

Here is the satellite for the evening, which just shows how clear the skies are to night in the south central US.

Thunder in the Ozarks

Something as a swan song to the persistent trough that had been bringing showers and thunderstorms to the middle of the country, Fayetteville reported showers and thunderstorms on both Sunday and Monday. The wet weather was not nearly as significant as it had been, and it didn’t even show up on Tuesday. The benefit was that temperatures were comfortable in the 80s, and that the forecast was skillful. The Weather Channel, Weather Service and Weathernation all tied at the top spot.
Actuals: Sunday – .15 inches of rain, High 84, Low 70
Monday – .01 inches of rain, High 85, Low 69

Grade: A-B

Columbia, South Carolina to Fayetteville, Arkansas

There are certainly a few different Columbia to Fayetteville options out there, and this was the longest trip possible of any of those combinations. This particular iteration will result in a day and a half drive, covering 921 miles. The pace between these SEC college campuses will be a somewhat tame 61.9mph covering 495 mile on our first day of travel. Let’s just get going, then.

DAY ONE (Sunday)

Columbia, South Carolina

It’s certainly a nuisance for residence from the central Plains to the Great Lakes to have to endure several days of rain and thunderstorms, but as we drive from Columbia through northern Georgia, we will reap the benefits. The moisture being directed further to the north and west will allow the southeast to dry out a bit. A stream of moisture keeps showing up on the various model runs in the late evening over eastern Alabama, so don’t be surprised to see a little rain from the Georgia line to Birmingham. Mostly cloudy, warm and muggy conditions will continue west to Tupelo, Mississippi where we will round out the day.

DAY TWO (Monday)
The five plus hours through northern Mississippi, and across the state of Arkansas will be increasingly cloudy, and the higher terrain in northern Arkansas is likely to see spots of misty fog. Rain should stay clear of our route, but for the very end, when an isolated thunderstorm will certainly be possible along the hilly I-49 stretch, reaching into Fayetteville.

Fayetteville, Arkansas

Fayetteville, Arkansas

The Ozarks are definitely the nicest part of Arkansas, and I think most residents of the other parts of Arkansas would agree with that. Will the weather be just as beautiful?

At 753PM, CT, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with overcast skies. A cold front sliced through the Plains, and moisture has been streaming through the region for the last several days. The added rain of the most recent system has led to flash flood watches in northwest Arkansas. Presently, the only band of heavy rain was northwest of Tulsa, with the axis running from Nowata to Guthrie. The narrow band of showers and storms will move very slowly, and perhaps won’t even cross into Arkansas tonight.
There is a trough across the northern US that is particularly strong for late June, and it’s angle is so severe that it is having a difficult time propagating. Further preventing much motion is the pattern is the strong ridge fostering the record heat in the Pacific Northwest. With little structural change, the peak June sun will help weaken the jet flow, but not the curvature of the trough. Showers and storms will be a possibility through the next couple of days, though with less organization. Intensity may not wane, however, as day time heating could lead to more torrential downpours. The boundary will weaken, but the fuel reservoir will deepen.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 84, Low 70
Monday – Isolated thunderstorms, High 86, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms likely. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 83, Low 69
Monday – Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. High 85, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of rain and a thunderstorm High 84, Low 72
Monday – Mostly cloudy and humid; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 84, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, High 84, Low 70
Monday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms, High 81, Low 73
Monday – Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms, High 83, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers likely, High 84, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy with showers likely, High 84, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning. High 82, Low 70
Monday – Possible light rain in the afternoon and evening. High 84, Low 69

Rain isn’t close to Fayetteville at the moment, but more rain is coming, even if they miss this round.

An absolute whirlwind

I am, of course, talking about our recent posting frequency. Whew! This Fayetteville verification is 2 weeks overdue, if that gives you an idea the latency issues we are having. This was a pretty solid forecast from all comers, with Victoria-Weather taking the top spot, after two other outlets incorrectly suspected thunderstorms would bleed into the eastern Carolinas after developing in the shadow of the Appalachians. Nope! V-W gets the win.
Actuals: July 16th, High 93, Low 73
July 17th, High 93, Low 74

Grade: A-B

Greenville, North Carolina to Fayetteville, North Carolina

It’s not a long trip from these two towns in eastern North Carolina. This trip of less than 2 hours will merely be a leisurely Sunday drive (assuming the weather cooperates). We will cover 110 miles at an almost 63mph pace, and be in Fayetteville by lunch time. Let’s see what will happen.

Greenville, North Carolina

The tail of a continually weakening trough is bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the Tarheel state today, but guidance suggests the activity will be significantly weaker tomorrow morning thanks both to the fact that that trough IS weakening, and that we will be going in the morning, when the heat of the day will be absent. Indeed, this will be a leisurely drive! Stop for ice cream on the way, you have my permission.

Fayetteille, North Carolina

Fayetteville, North Carolina

We randomly pick our forecast cities, so there isn’t any favoritism here, but boy, our random selector sure seems to like Fayetteville lately.

At 1053PM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with clear skies. With a dew point of 73, the clear skies are likely to lead to some fog developing before the night is through, though there was a spot of shower and thunderstorm activity southwest of Fayetteville across the border in South Carolina.
A vast area of low pressure has parked itself over Hudson Bay, and is playing a role in directing traffic much further south. A weak undercutting wave moving through the southern Great Lakes is amplifying onshore flow in the eastern Carolinas tonight, but by tomorrow evening, only a fading trough west of the Appalachians will remain. A moisture rich, generally featureless landscape will mark the Carolinas’ atmosphere on Friday, with some later afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, but likely closer to Charlotte and Winston-Salem, where the terrain may have some say in he matter. Hot and hazy is the name of the game in Fayetteville.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and warm, High 92, Low 75
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 94, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 92, Low 72
Friday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 93, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 93, Low 71
Friday – A morning thunderstorm; otherwise, partly sunny High 93, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny High 94, Low 74
Friday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90, Low 74
Friday – Mostly sunny High 90, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 78
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High
92, Low 72
Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, Low 70

Well, the day turned to Thursday as I was posting this, and that confused me a bit with the forecasts. Here is a look at the satellite, with one rogue shower, now fading, in South Carolina.

Do you remember Cristobal?

This forecast, issued on the 11th for Fayetteville, came so long ago that Tropical Storm Cristobal was still mentioned in the text. While this forecast was for North Carolina, the tropical feature wasn’t a major influence on the forecast, but a lingering cold front and a return of hot humid air was. The Weather Channel was the top forecaster way back in the middle of the month.
Actuals: June 12th – .02 inches of rain, High 83, Low 69
June 13th – High 84, Low 66

Grade: A-B