I am, of course, talking about our recent posting frequency. Whew! This Fayetteville verification is 2 weeks overdue, if that gives you an idea the latency issues we are having. This was a pretty solid forecast from all comers, with Victoria-Weather taking the top spot, after two other outlets incorrectly suspected thunderstorms would bleed into the eastern Carolinas after developing in the shadow of the Appalachians. Nope! V-W gets the win. Actuals: July 16th, High 93, Low 73 July 17th, High 93, Low 74
It’s not a long trip from these two towns in eastern North Carolina. This trip of less than 2 hours will merely be a leisurely Sunday drive (assuming the weather cooperates). We will cover 110 miles at an almost 63mph pace, and be in Fayetteville by lunch time. Let’s see what will happen.
The tail of a continually weakening trough is bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the Tarheel state today, but guidance suggests the activity will be significantly weaker tomorrow morning thanks both to the fact that that trough IS weakening, and that we will be going in the morning, when the heat of the day will be absent. Indeed, this will be a leisurely drive! Stop for ice cream on the way, you have my permission.
We randomly pick our forecast cities, so there isn’t any favoritism here, but boy, our random selector sure seems to like Fayetteville lately.
At 1053PM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with clear skies. With a dew point of 73, the clear skies are likely to lead to some fog developing before the night is through, though there was a spot of shower and thunderstorm activity southwest of Fayetteville across the border in South Carolina. A vast area of low pressure has parked itself over Hudson Bay, and is playing a role in directing traffic much further south. A weak undercutting wave moving through the southern Great Lakes is amplifying onshore flow in the eastern Carolinas tonight, but by tomorrow evening, only a fading trough west of the Appalachians will remain. A moisture rich, generally featureless landscape will mark the Carolinas’ atmosphere on Friday, with some later afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, but likely closer to Charlotte and Winston-Salem, where the terrain may have some say in he matter. Hot and hazy is the name of the game in Fayetteville. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and warm, High 92, Low 75 Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 94, Low 74
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 92, Low 72 Friday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 93, Low 72
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 93, Low 71 Friday – A morning thunderstorm; otherwise, partly sunny High 93, Low 72
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny High 94, Low 74 Friday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 72
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90, Low 74 Friday – Mostly sunny High 90, Low 73
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 78 Friday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 72
FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, Low 72 Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, Low 70
Well, the day turned to Thursday as I was posting this, and that confused me a bit with the forecasts. Here is a look at the satellite, with one rogue shower, now fading, in South Carolina.
This forecast, issued on the 11th for Fayetteville, came so long ago that Tropical Storm Cristobal was still mentioned in the text. While this forecast was for North Carolina, the tropical feature wasn’t a major influence on the forecast, but a lingering cold front and a return of hot humid air was. The Weather Channel was the top forecaster way back in the middle of the month. Actuals: June 12th – .02 inches of rain, High 83, Low 69 June 13th – High 84, Low 66
There are a couple of Fayettevilles of note in this country of ours. For today, we will visit the North Carolinian version of the two.
At 953PM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 76, with an incredibly sultry dew point of 73. The exhaustingly humid air was ahead of a line of storms extending from Raleigh to Norman and west towards Norwood, along which there were some severe gusts. These storms would likely inch into Fayetteville before the night was through. The wet weather is tied to a slowing cold front, associated with the remnants of Cristobal, who is now moving through Hudson Bay towards Baffin Island. This will lend to some lingering showers and storms in and around eastern North Carolina tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. Robust surface high pressure is moving in from the north, but an upper level trough is going to generate a surface perturbation that will ripple along the southern flank of the ridge, and will reinvigorate the threat for showers and storms in eastern North Carolina on Saturday. Unfortunately, that truly crisp air looks unlikely to make a lasting impression. Tomorrow – Isolated storms, otherwise muggy and mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 74 Saturday – Mostly cloudy, chances of rain and storms, High 83, Low 68
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 82, Low 70 Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 84, Low 64
AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover and humid with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; watch for flooding High 83, Low 72 Saturday – Cloudy most of the time with a shower or heavy thunderstorm in the area; watch for flooding High 85, Low 67
NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly cloudy High 83, Low 72 Saturday – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Partly sunny High 84, Low 67
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 81, Low 72 Saturday – Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 82, Low 67
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 83, Low 71 Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 84, Low 67
FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning. High 82, Low 71 Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 82, Low 66
Some mixed messaging with the forecasts to round out the week. Rain? No? We’ll see! The radar for tonight continues to look active, though.
Up until now, we’ve had to rely on our RSS feed to put together out verifications, but the first post back was forFayetteville, North Carolina. It had been written before The Incident, so it was actually valid for the days before it even posted, but that’s neither here nor there. The forecast, then was for Monday the 11th and Tuesday the 12th. I’m happy to say the weather in North Carolina was fine, because this post has already required quite a bit of explanation. I’ll just conclude by saying that WeatherNation had the win for the first forecast back from oblivion. Actuals: Monday, the 11th, High 72, Low 54 Tuesday the 12th, High 64, Low 39
Well, now we have all types of Victoria-Weather posts ready to roll on the reconstituted site, but our archives are still toast. Oh well, the weather continues on, as will we, on this two day journey from North Carolina to Iowa. It is 1090 miles between the two towns, and though this trip is approximately 2 even days, we’ll go a little bit further on day two. The first day will conclude after 519 miles on the road. all at a pace of 64.9mph. I think the weather is going to be pretty great, so let’s see if we can’t make even better time.
DAY ONE (Monday) Like I said, it looks like we don’t have a whole lot to be concerned with on the first day on the road. High pressure is taking over the country. Sweeping the nation, really. There may be some haze and what not as we pass through West Virginia, just because of moisture in the valleys, but it will only serve to make things more picturesque. We’ll make it to Beavercreek, just outside of Dayton, Ohio.
DAY TWO (Tuesday) There is a weak little perturbation expected to roll out of the central Rockies and cruise through the central Plains. It’s not going to be very strong, but it’s miniature stature means it will be fairly unpredictable. It will only reach southern Iowa by the time we finish our day, but there is enough uncertainty that I might just suggest to prepare for a few wet flakes anywhere from the Quad Cities to Waterloo. Slow down in Cedar Rapids, they have cameras.
All right, let’s do some forecasting! It’s getting into the thick of conference tournament season and everyone likes to pay attention to the state of North Carolina this time of year. We’re no different!
At 1053PM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting a balmy 67 degree with partly cloudy skies. A cold front has shifted to lie along the Carolina coast, with a stationary front extending east to west lying from Charleston, South Carolina to Montgomery Alabama. Fayetteville is currently lodged within the cool post frontal portion of the low moving into the mid-Atlantic, but will soon be under high pressure, which is developing in the eastern US over the next couple of days. Warm, dry days will start the work week. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 54 Tuesday – Sunny but cooler, High 67, Low 45