A weak Alberta Clipper sliding through the Upper Midwest was supposed to supply Decatur with a fresh top coat to the snow that had already fallen in the middle of last week. As it turned out, the system was weaker than we expected, bringing half as much snow to Minnesota than we expected, and it failed to hold together all the way to Decatur. The outlets that had the best results were the ones who left snow out of the forecast, in particularWeatherBug had a nearly perfect forecast, and had an easy victory on the day. Actuals: Friday – High 37, L:ow 27 Saturday – High 38, Low 26
The first big winter storm of the year got its start in the lower Mississippi Valley before charging northeast to New England. The Eastern Seaboard is getting attention for the snow they are seeing, but they caught a little bit in southern Illinois as well.
At 1054PM, CT, Decatur was reporting a temperature of 24 degrees with clear skies and haze. The recently fallen snow and clear skies were leading to the radiation fog developing across the region overnight. Fog was prevalent throughout east central Illinois, where temperatures were slightly depressed thanks to the recently departed system, which was now centered over Cincinnati, with clouds terminating at the Indiana-Illinois state line. The upper level pattern is quite active, so this period of tranquility around Decatur is going to be short-lived. A bit warmer weather is coming tomorrow with a weak ridge between the system that clobbered the region today and a Clipper moving through the Upper Midwest, scheduled to arrive in central Illinois on Saturday afternoon. Snowfall is going to be significantly lighter than the snow of the last 24 hours, but it will be persistent, and linger through the rest of the day Saturday. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 24 Saturday – Snow showers start in the afternoon. Up to an inch possible, High, 37, Low 31
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 37, Low 25 Saturday – Considerable cloudiness. Occasional rain showers in the afternoon. High 39, Low 24
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; chilly High 40, Low 29 Saturday – Mostly cloudy, cold; a flurry around in the afternoon High 40, Low 27
NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 39, Low 24 Saturday – Cloudy, High 40, Low 28
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 37, Low 27 Saturday – Cloudy, High 38, Low 25
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 39, Low 28 Saturday- Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 40, Low 28
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting in the morning. High 37, Low 25 Saturday – Overcast throughout the day. High 37, Low 28
Well, this is interesting. I know Clippers, especially when they arrive with warmer temperatures, aren’t always a sure thing, but I’m surprised snow is being left out by so many outlets. Here is a look at the satellite, with the monster area of low pressure that brought snow earlier, looking like a hurricane over the Ohio Valley.
It’s a Forecast 2-fer! That’ll happen when i’m on vacation for a day down in, ironically, Illinois. I wasn’t very close to Decatur, but at least I was in the ballpark! Let’s see how long this arctic blast sticks around for.
At 1054pm CST, the temperature at Decatur, IL was 2 degrees under fair skies. High pressure has firmly gripped much of the Eastern US in its’ icy clutches. Sub-zero temperatures were found throughout the region this morning, a Christmas present I’m sure nobody asked for. There is a disturbance working its way trhough the Midwest, however, and the associated cloud cover will keep temperatures from getting too low tonight. It’s unlikely it’ll drop much from where it is now as it moves in from the east. Returns are showing up on radar, but they’re not currently reaching the ground. This activity should stay off to the north of the area today, with temperatures rebounding into the teens. A slightly better chance of some late afternoon snow showers is expected for Friday as another quick moving ripple of energy follows on the heals of the last one, so keep an eye out for some accumulating snows from that. Another round of bitter Arctic air looks possible in the long-term, so keep that on the brain as we head for 2018!
Thursday: Cloudy, getting a bit warmer. High 17, Low 1
Friday: Chance of afternoon/evening snow showers. High 24, Low 10.
TWC: Thursday: Cloudy. High 19, Low 2.
Friday: Afternoon snow showers. High 22, Low 12.
AW: Thursday: Mainly cloudy, not as cold. High 19, Low 6.
Friday: A little snow, mainly later. High 21, Low 12.
NWS: Thursday: Mostly cloudy then slight chance of afternoon snow showers. High 19, Low -3.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with chance of snow. High 21, Low 10.
WB: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High 19, Low 3.
Friday: 50% chance of snow. High 21, Low 12.
This was a trip that was supposed to happen yesterday, but here we are, planning it today. How will the one long day of travel unfold for us? We’ll find out. It will take us 10 hours to cover 709 miles at a pace if 69.4mph. That’s not bad. Let’s cross the Mississippi, shall we?
A double barrelled area of low pressure over the Plains has one area over southern Minnesota by tomorrow morning and the second in western Oklahoma. Most of the associated activity projects to be in the Great Lakes, especially as the southern end of the trough is broken down by further development in the High Plains later om the day. There might be a stray thunderstorm as we pass through western Missouri as a result of all these machinations, but the threat is not great. Really, it’s more likely that we see some clouds emerge over this stretch, but you likely wouldn’t have noticed if I didn’t tell you. Lawrence will be good tomorrow, but things will be a bit less wonderful on Tuesday as we stick around.
I like that Google helpfully informs that you can get from city to city in less than 6 hours if you fly. Where is the fun in that? No, we’re looking at a 4 day trip, covering 2070 miles at a pace of 69mph. That means our first three days will be done after 552 miles, with a shorter day to finish things off. The trek is predominantly along I-40, so at least we won’t get lost.
DAY ONE (Saturday)
Santa Barbara will very likely be a bit foggy as we head out for the day, but then when we hit the mountains just inland, we’ll be able to look briefly westward upon the cloud covered shores, before we descend eastward and inland. We’ll spend the rest of the day in the desert, but it won’t be as bad as all that sounds. It won’t be as hot as it could be, and it’s rained recently, so plants may have opened up and flowers will be in bloom. It will be pretty! And the night will end in Flagstaff, which has plenty of options to spend the night, which doesn’t always happen when driving through the desert.
DAY TWO (Sunday)
Low pressure will be moving in waves through the northern United States, but the southern United States will be quite dry. It might be a little breezy, but the warmth won’t be intolerable, especially in the higher terrain along the Arizona-New Mexico border. We’ll make it inside the Texas border by the end of the day, ending the day in Adrian, Texas.
DAY THREE (Monday)
Southerly flow reemerged as we head towards the Ozarks, and this will likely lead to a few questions. There is likely to be an isolated thunderstorm starting in eastern Oklahoma, followed by some more widespread light rain across Arkansas in the higher terrain. One thing seems clear, that when the terrain gets a bit rougher, we should expect a better threat for clouds, drizzle or not. We will make it about an hour into Arkansas with this drizzly threat before we call it a day in Lamar, which I hope people call “Lamarkansas”
DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
Expect a lingering but week warm front to stretch from the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, which is a pretty narrow path, but also rather unfortunate. You see, that’s exactly where we intend to drive on Tuesday. Expect things to start off dry before the heat of the day sets off a few showers and storms. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms from Corinth, Mississippi right on in to Decatur.
Finally, after back to back road trips that covered more than half a week, we are just going to be on the road for a day and a half with this adventure. It’s a 760 mile trip that we will cover at a pace of 60.6mph. After a slow slog through Chicago our first day will be done after driving 485 miles.
A big swirling mass of cold air and light precipitation that is completely unnecessary is smothering the Great Lakes. IT will be fairly clear as we head through eastern Wisconsin and pass through Chicago, but by the time we hit Gary, clouds and maybe even a snowflake or two will cross our path. It will almost certainly get windier. The clouds will continue to thicken as we head south, with the chance of some light snow increasing as we get to Hillview, Kentucky, a south suburb of Louisville.
We are going to make our trek through Kentucky and Tennessee between two waves through a narrow band of high pressure. Temperatures will be below normal the entire route, but we will be dry as we make our way across the border to Alabama and beautiful Decatur.
In Decatur, Alabama, there weren’t many surprised on Monday, with some thunderstorms through the afternoon, keeping temperatures down. Tuesday morning is where the mystery arises. There was .01 inches of accumulation recorded, however there were no reports of rain, and skies were clear at the time. I’m baffled! I won’t punish anyone for not having it in, because it’s so suspicious. Even more suspicious, this leads to a Victoria-Weather victory. Shenanigans!
Actuals: Monday – .47 inches of rain, High 73, Low 62
Tuesday – .01 inches of rain?!?!?!?! High 79, Low 61
It’s Mother’s Day today, so we send our regards to all the moms out there, and the children who love them.
At 1136AM, CT, Decatur was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with overcast skies. The rain has temporarily ended there, but they were still reporting some showers to the west in Florence, and light rain was still cropping up near Tuscaloosa, so Decatur certainly wasn’t out of the woods.
The surface reflection of a lower level trough was seen along the Mississippi-Alabama border near Columbus, Mississippi. Behind the low, a slow clearing pattern was taking hold in Mississippi. Model output was indicating the surface low would shift northeast to the Carolinas, though it is a little unclear what will happen in the wake of the system. It seems as though low clouds in northern Alabama are providing feedback to the GFS model for Tuesday, but Monday will still likely be drizzly.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with some scattered showers, High 76, Low 60
Tuesday – Morning clouds, then clearing late, High 81, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow – AM Clouds / PM Sun High 79, Low 60
Tuesday – Partly Cloudy High 80, Low 60
AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy with a shower in spots High 76, Low 59
Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around, mainly later High 81, Low 56
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 78, Low 58
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 57
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning High 78, Low 58
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. high 81, Low 57
It’s quite apparent that the forecast in Decatur is going to come down to what happens with the rain over the next two days. Forecasts are all over the map. Radar for now shows that the bulk of it is off to the east for now.
No, the title doesn’t allude to the mental state of Anthony and myself. It describes the summer time atmosphere in Decatur. As Anthony correctly described, the heat in the afternoons led to the development of showers and thunderstorms over Alabama, some of them clipping Decatur both Tuesday and Wednesday. As it turned out, the coverage of thunderstorms was enough that temperatures on Wednesday didn’t reach the 90s as had been initially forecast. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast, thanks in large part to out right-down-the-middle forecast on Tuesday.
Actuals: Tuesday – .12 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 68
Wednesday – .12 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 86, Low 66
Off to the Deep South, where it NEVER thunderstorms this time of year…
At 1:53pm CDT, the temperature at Decatur, AL was 80 degrees under fair skies. A few thunderstorms are found just off towards the east near Huntsville, but otherwise right now seeing a little break in the action. The overall regime for the next couple of days doesn’t look to be changing much as the main jet stream stays fairly zonal over the northern tier of the US. A Bermuda High looks to stay rather persistent over… well… Bermuda, which keeps a general southerly flow going over the Southeastern US, keeping the flow of moisture from the Gulf open. Add in the normal afternoon instability that always results when temperatures push into the 80s and 90s over the region, and you get scattered thunderstorms over pretty much the entire area every afternoon. Just be sure to keep an eye on the radar as these types of thunderstorms seem to pop up quickly and die out just as fast. Happy Memorial Day readers!
Tuesday: 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms. High 86, Low 67.
Wednesday: 40% chance of some scattered thunderstorms. High 89, Low 67.
TWC: Tuesday: 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. High 84, Low 66.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms. High 88, Low 66.
AW: Tuesday: 60% chance of thunderstorms. High 87, Low 67.
Wednesday: 20% chance of thunderstorms. High 94, Low 65.
NWS: Tuesday: 40% chance of showers and storms. High 87, Low 66.
Wednesday: 20% chance of isolated showers/storms. High 92, Low 66.
WB: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, 40% chance of storms. High 87, Low 66.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, 20% chance of storms. High 92, Low 68.
Here we see the thunderstorms currently off to the east, and moving away from the Decatur area. Will we see some of this activity move overhead in the next couple of days? Time will tell…