Tag Archives: Jackson

High pressure hijinks

Generally speaking, sunny days tend to have a pretty low degree of forecasting error, but for some reason, that wasn’t the case in Jackson last week. The easily identifiable  flaw was in low temperature forecasts, particularly the one on Saturday morning, where even the best forecast was 4 degrees too warm. It seems we are still trying to figure out how forecasting in real live warm temperatures works. WeatherNation and the Weather Service tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Friday – High 74, Low 45
Saturrday – High 73, Low 43

Grade: B-D

Jackson, Tennessee to New Haven, Connecticut

Hey gang, let’s hit the road, shall we? We’re going to take a 2 day trip through the Appalachians and on to southern New England. The distance between the towns of Jackson and New Haven is about 1,100 miles, which we will cover at a pace of about 65mph. We’ll make day one a slightly shorter day, calling it good after about 519 miles, which might actually get us through the entire state of Tennessee!


DAY ONE (Wednesday)

High pressure is wedged into the southeastern part of the country, and will be very good to us for our drive on Wednesday, with sunshine dotting our entire journey. We will hit the Smokeys late enough in the day that the typical fog that gives the mountains their name will not be present. Wei’ll just bounce into Radford, Virginia, nary a care in the world and call it a day after a pretty nice day of travel.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
An area of low pressure moving through the Canadian Maritimes is draping a cold front through the Great Lakes, and it will weaken and drift south towards New York City and Connecticut by Thursday. We’ll run into some wet weather, perhaps around Allentown, with the threat lingering for the rest of the drive into New Haven. By that point, it will be much weaker with storms more widely scattered. An advancing system in the Plains will force the boundary to act more as a warm front, which will lead to precipitation to fall more as generalized high base shower activity. What I’m saying is, if it has to rain, it could be way worse. Enjoy steam New Haven!

Jackson, Tennessee

Tomorrow –  Early fog, then sunny, High 72, Low 49
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early. Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 75, Low 52
Saturday – Mainly sunny.  High 77, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 74, Low 48
Saturday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 72, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 74, Low 47
Saturday – Sunny, High 73, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of fog early in the morning. Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 48
Saturday – Sunny, High 69, Low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 47
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until morning. High 76,, Low 47
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 72, Low 48

As is often the cast, I nosed the forecast in one direction or another after I recorded the video. In this case warmer, thanks in large part to all the sun Jackson is going to see.

Lower Michigan, upper 80s

We looked at Jackson, Michigan way back last week, in the midst of their early June heat wave. Temperatures weren’t cooling off, at least not through the beginning of the week last week, as they continued to reach the upper 80s to low 90s, all as a warm front remained parked to the northwest, unwilling to move on so relief would find its way in. Forecasters generally knew how stubborn this boundary would be, and the results were pretty good. They were the best for WeatherNation, who had the victory.
Actuals: Sunday – High 89, Low 69
Monday – High 90, Low 68

Jackson, Michigan

This weekend has brought on the first real heat wave of the winter, which is a little earlier than we usually see this kind of heat. How long will it last?

At 156AM, ET, Jackson was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. The warm temperatures even at this late hour are a result of brisk southerly flow generated by a distended area of low pressure in the Dakotas. Temperatures tomorrow will respond in kind, with 90s highly likely.
The flow is generally from the southwest with this storm, so the airmass in lower Michigan remains relatively dry. With little by way of instability, it will take a trigger to touch off thunderstorms in Michigan, despite the heat. A warm front will be the primary focus for storms, with a derecho tearing through Minnesota and Wisconsin, headed towards northern Michigan tomorrow. A cold front will begin to drift south on Monday, but there will be no upper level support for cooler air to drive southward. Even more significantly for the threat of rain, disturbed weather in the eastern Gulf will mean that the southerly flow into the front will not be laden with moisture. Hot, dry weather is going to continue for at least the next two days.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, hot, High  87, Low 68
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 91, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 88, Low 66
Monday – Generally sunny. Near record high temperatures. High 92, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and very warm High 89, Low 66
Monday – Sunny, breezy and hot with the temperature approaching the record of 95 set in 1933 High 93, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 90, Low 66
Monday – Sunny and hot, High 92, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 67
Monday – Sunny, High 92, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, Higj 90, Low 70
Monday – Mostly sunny High 91. Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 91, Low 69
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 92, Low 69

So, that heat is going to linger for a while. Satellite is showing a lot of sun in the center of the country. Well, moon, at this time of night. That cluster of storms in South Dakota will be a doozy later, but southern Michigan is going to be just fine.

Jackson, Michigan to Manchester, New Hampshire

We’re going to Canada! At long last, we are cutting through southern Ontario to facilitate our day and a half drive, from southeast Michigan to southeast New Hampshire. The drive is 827 miles, which we will cover at a pace of 65mph. This means our first day should be through after 521 miles of driving, which should place us safely back on American soil for the night.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)

Off we go, and I am happy to report that our venture through Ontario will be slowed only by customs going into and returning from our neighbors to the north. A cold front will be forcing its way towards the Tennessee Valley, so we will be experiencing a bit of a chill, and some breezy weather in Chatham-Kent, London and Hamilton, but no actual precipitation. There may be a few flurries up in the Adirondacks when we return to New York, and we might see a flake as we stop in Westmoreland for the night, but that’s hardly Canada’s fault.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
The rear lobe of a system moving offshore from New England is expected to organize a bit over Nova Scotia on Wednesday, wrapping moisture back into the White and Green Mountains. We should be far enough south that we stay snow free, but there will likely be a few midlevel clouds as we navigate through Massachusetts and finally arrive in Manchester.

Cold shock

Scientists have long said the greatest worry about cold water and falling in it is human’s involuntary reaction to immersion: to gasp. I wonder if there were any gasps in Jackson, Michigan on Tuesday morning, when temperatures were nearly 30 degrees cooler than they were the day before. The post-rain cold front was much stronger than expected in the wake of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes. Forecasts anticipated a cool down, but they didn’t go nearly far enough. There was a logjam near the top of the charts, but The Weather Channel edged the competition with the coolest overall forecast.
Actuals: Monday – High 91, Low 64
Tuesday – High 67, Low 53

Grade: C

Jackson, Michigan

Hello, it’s Sunday night and time for an A+ forecast to finish off the weekend.

At 956PM, ET, Jackson was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. Most of the region was seeing clear skies and temperatures in the mid 70s. A cold front has recently passed through the region, and there is stratiform, post frontal rain across northwestern Ohio with slightly cooler air filling in across the Lower Peninsula. The dew points are still rather sultry, however.
The jet associated with the area of low pressure that produced the shower activity in the eastern Great Lakes today is still hanging out in the northern Great Lakes, and will be sinking south across the Jackson area late in the day tomorrow. This will produce some midlevel clouds, and be followed by the cooler and drier air that is still lacking.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 68
Tuesday – Clearer and more comfortable, High 76, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 89, Low 64
Tuesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 73, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Warm and less humid with plenty of sunshine High 87, Low 64
Tuesday – Cooler but pleasant with sunshine and patchy clouds High 74, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 90, Low 66
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 65
Tuesday – Cloudy until midday, then becoming partly sunny, High 71, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 90, Low 66
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny High 73, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Breezy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening, and partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 92, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 76, Low 56

It’s a weird situation, to have the rain move through and have to wait a full day for the refreshing air. Here is all te cold air already through the region.
Jackson

A stronger ridge

While there were indeed some showers and storms in the Jackson, Tennessee area to finish off this past week, they weren’t remotely close to the severe threshold, and they weren’t as persistent as has been seen in the Plains. This was mostly anticipated, though a gradual break down of high pressure, leading to more wet weather on Friday than Thursday didn’t take place. In fact, there was a half inch of rain in Jackson on Thursday, and nothing on Friday. Unfortunately, I did a poor job translating the forecasts of more than one outlet to my post, so we can’t officially verify things, but if we did, it looks as though an Accuweather-National Weather Service combo had the best numbers.
Actuals – Thursday .46 inches of rain, High 89, Low 66
Friday – High 82, Low 67

Jackson, Tennessee

Back at it again with another forecast. Let’s see if those storms in the Plains try to make their way towards western Tennessee.

At 1153PM, CT, Jackson was reporting a temperature of 65 degrees with clear skies. A developing area of low pressure over the Panhandle region was generating severe weather in the Plains, as well as a turbulent southwesterly flow across the Jackson region. This flow will light up with showers and storms with the heating of the day tomorrow, and Jackson will dodge showers and storms.
A blocking ridge remains in place over the eastern United States, and will hold low pressure in the Plains in check.  Western Tennessee will find itself within the back end of the ridge and at the leading edge of low pressure, but a cold front will never pass through. There won’t be severe weather in Jackson, however, there is  a good chance that each of the next two days will have at least one isolated thunderstorm.
Tomorrow – Isolated clusters of thunderstorms, High 85, Low 62
Friday – Scattered thunderstorms, High 84, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible.High 87, Low 63
Friday – Cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 85, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with periods of sun; a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon High85, Low 66
Friday – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm High 83, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 86, Low 64
Friday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, High 82, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow –  Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 70
Friday – Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 80, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 88, Low
Friday – Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 88, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain until afternoon, starting again overnight. High 88, Low 69
Friday – Drizzle until evening.

Nothing out there for the time being, but it looks like a busy couple of days. Fortunately, it won’t be severe or dangerous.

Jackson