I am impressed. The forecast for Jackson was locked and loaded to be very difficult. A massive blob of uncomfortable low pressure moving through the Great Lakes was going to manipulate precipitation types and drive temperatures steadily downward… except for when there was an intrusion of warm air as the low passed by on Saturday. It was a recipe for a difficult forecast, and by jove, this forecast was knocked out of the park. Weatherbug, in fact, only had 1 degree of error in their entire forecast. the only real loser was the city of Jackson, who had to deal with the rain, thunderstorm and snow chaser. Actuals: Sunday – .64 inches of rain, High 42, Low 34 Monday – Snow reported, not measured, High 34, Low 28
We sure are looking at an interesting forecast for the Great Lakes today. It’s a mystery even what type of precipitation will be falling in an hour.
At 1256AM, ET, Jackson was reporting a brisk 35mph easterly wind gust with overcast skies and a temperature of 37 ahead of a vast batch of heavy rain consuming most, if not all of western Michigan. A large area of occluded low pressure is centered over north central Iowa. The occluded boundary is ranging from there to Michigan. Jackson appears to northeast of the warm occlusion. Much of Michigan is in a winter weather warning or advisory, however Jackson is south of these alerts. After the rain that will come this morning, a well defined dry tongue will move into Lower Michigan through the middle of the day on Sunday. The back end of this feature is becoming significantly less organized and unable to access the same level of moisture. Still, light snow showers will persist in the Jackson region into Monday afternoon, but a cool down is not likely to follow suit after becoming cut off from the deeply occluded circulation. Tomorrow – early rain, becoming mixed and eventually predominately snow in the evening. High 37, Low 33 Monday – Light wet snow, High 33, Low 28
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain ending early. Remaining cloudy, High 43, Low 35 Monday – Overcast, early snow, HIgh 35, Low 28
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers, perhaps mixed with snow late in the day High 43, Low 35 Monday – Low clouds and colder HIgh 35, Low 29
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly before 10am. (Late mix) HIgh 42, Low 35 Monday – Cloudy (Early mix becoming snow) HIgh 35, Low 27
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain likely, High 42, Low 35 Monday – Mostly cloudy )Early mix), High 35, Low 31
FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day. High 42, Low 34 Monday – Overcast throughout the day. HIgh 35, Low 28
That was a difficult forecast. The precipitation in western Michigan has already started a transition to a mix, even as I was writing this forecast post, if that gives an idea of the uncertainty we will be dealing with.