El Centro, California to Lakeland, Florida

This is a drive I can get behind. It will be a 4 day drive along the southern tier of the US. The drive will cover 2331 miles, and we will cover ground at approximately 68.5mph, which is a decent clip. That decent clip also means a robust 548 miles traveled on days 1-3, with a long day in the southeast on day 4. they drive fast in Florida, so I bet we save some time.

El Centro, California

DAY ONE (Saturday)
For a drive in the southwest, our route will take us through a couple of pretty large areas, as we will encounter the sweltering Phoenix and moderately cooler Tucson on our way to New Mexico. Precipitation is not expected, and population will be minimal between the towns in question. The terrain in central New Mexico may aid in the development of a few showers and storms, but I think those will all remain east of where we will stop, exit 116 between Akela and Las Cruces.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
The dry line and the monsoon will be the two most identifiable features on our route on Sunday, but the late in the day develoment of these two features, and the lack of moisture available to them because of a batch of energy in the northeast means we will thread this needle without much threat for precipitation. We’ll make it to Kerrville, on the outskirts of San Antonio to finish the day.

DAY THREE (Monday)
The tail of a cold front will wrap around an advancing bubble of high pressure on Monday, and will touch off a few squirts of rain and isolated thunderstorms along the Texas/Louisiana border as we approach. It looks the wettest on the Louisiana side of the line, and the last couple of hours to Denham Springs, just east of Baton Rouge, bring a chance of a wet windshield.

DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
This isn’t something we see very often, especially this time of year, but high pressure is expected to settle into the southeastern US by early next week. Hot? Yes. Dry? Also yes, even in Lakeland. There might be a stray spritz left over in Denham Springs, but it should be good weather to enjoy the lakes of central Florida.

Lakeland, Florida

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to El Centro, California

This has been a challenging week. Tornadoes have now struck in several places, most famously in Jefferson City, Missouri and Dayton, Ohio. This 5 day trek, covering 2,585 miles will cover nearly all of the regions that were most heavily impacted. We’ll parcel this day into 530 mile segments, with a pace of 66mph. I thought it would be quicker given the surfeit of interstate we will cover, but safety first. hopefully the tornado threat is lessening as we traverse the central Plains.

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

DAY ONE (Thursday)
Eastern Pennsylvania hasn’t been safe from the tornadoes either, with a twister northeast of Philadelphia last night. There is severe weather in the offing again today, however by tomorrow, when we start on our way westward, the system will finally be abating a bit. The rain won’t be any less, unfortunately, as the strong area of low pressure causing all this nastiness will occlude south into the Ohio Valley. Some rain, thunder and maybe another rogue severe (not as widespread!) thunderstorm will be possible through Pennsylvania in the morning. Rain will be heaviest on the western exposures of the Appalachians, but it will be tapering off through eastern Ohio. We should be dry by Columbus, and pleasantly cool in Huber Heights, a suburb of Dayton, though not as heavily damaged by the Memorial Day tornado. It will be our stop on Thursday night.

DAY TWO (Friday)
The weather is going to take a dramatic turn for the better on Friday. There might be a rogue thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon across Illinois, because we can’t just leave it well enough alone, but they will be garden variety, pop up storms on the back end of a broad spring cyclone. We’ll make it to Sarcoxie, Missouri in the southwest part of the state on a hot, humid afternoon.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
You might think that the drive from southwest Missouri, through Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle would bring the best chance for significant severe weather, and with the way things have gone lately, it would seem even more likely that you’d be right. By Saturday, though, the tail of the cold front that has caused so many problems will lie through Kansas, leaving us with some warmer, humid but dry conditions for the day. As the day turns to night, it looks like instability will take over and some terrific lightning producing, if not severe thunderstorms will pick up across the state. Not that this should bother us, we’ll be in the Texas Panhandle, spending the night in Pampa by the time things get going in the Sooner State.

DAY FOUR
We will likely see and hear some overnight convection associated with the dry line in the Texas Panhandle overnight, but it will also be associated with cooling aloft. That cooling is going to be gone when the sun rises, and after a short drive to the west, we will be on the dry side of the dry line anyways. The air will be clear in New Mexico, and it’s tough to find a good stopping point in northeast Arizona, but there is a travel center about 15 miles from Chambers that will suit us fine.

DAY FIVE
The most significant change we will be the elevation. The Petrified Forest is fairly high up there, and we will descend towards Phoenix, and then cut off towards El Centro. No significant weather is expected, but El Centro is pretty stinkin’ hot.

Imperial Valley, with El Centro at the bottom left

April Forecaster of the Month

It’s been a pretty wild week of weather, starting with a high risk severe day in the southern high plains, followed by a more dangerous day, as tornadoes swept through a more populous region, killing three in Golden City, Missouri, and sending an EF-3 tornado through Jefferson City. It passed very near the downtown and the State Capital causing extensive damage, a few injuries, but miraculously, no deaths. And then, just last night, a tornado passed nearly in the back yard of my in laws outside of Iowa City, Iowa. This was an EF-1, and while it caused some damage nearby, everyone is all right.

So with that in mind, it’s strange to be thinking back to April. We were fairly active back then, before Anthony went on a vacation and I moved. There was enough there to comfortably state that it was a very tight competition. The Weather Channel narrowly defeated Victoria-Weather, Accuweather, Weatherbug, and The National Weather Service to win the prize.

OutletMonth wins
National Weather Service1.5
Accuweather1.5
Victoria-Weather1
Weatherbug1
Forecast.io1
The Weather Channel0.5
WeatherNation0.5

Outlet
Month winsyear wins
Victoria-Weather16.5
The Weather Channel0.56.25
Weatherbug15.58
National Weather Service1.55.25
Accuweather1.54.33
WeatherNation0.54.08
Forecast.io14

Phoenix gets fired up

Hi! It’s been a while! After a bit of a hiatus, thanks to a move and a minor illness, I’m here to remind you of a forecast we issued on Mother’s Day. Phoenix is one of the few places where it is actually quite warm, and the Tuesday after Mom got her day, it hit 98 degrees. Nick Lachey might think that’s just right, but to me, it seems a bit toasty. In case you were curious, yes, Victoria-Weather was the furthest off on a forecast that was won by the tag team of Accuweather and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Monday, May 13th, High 91, Low 655
Tuesday May 14th, High 98, Low 71

Grade A-B

Phoenix, Arizona to Lima, Ohio

Anthony is on vacation, and I am in the process of moving, so our posting has become a admittedly sporadic. I’m here now, though, to take us through a lengthy spring trip, potentially through the teeth of some strong storms. IT will take us 3 1/2 days to cover 1873 miles, which means a surprisingly lackadaisical 66.9mph. We’ll net 535 miles on the first three days, with, well, about half that on Wednesday.

Phoenix, Arizona

DAY ONE (Sunday)
We don’t usually think about the Desert Southwest when considering the threat for showers, thunderstorms and cold fronts, but a feature will be sliding into the west coast this weekend with a pretty sizeable cold front moving towards central California. It will eventually bring some rain to northern Arizona, but it looks like we will be sneaking into New Mexico with plenty of time to spare. It should be a seasonably warm day, except in the high reaches of the Rockies between Phoenix and Santa Rosa, New Mexico, the day one destination.

DAY TWO (Monday)
Monday has caught the eye of the Storm Prediction Center already as a moderate risk day. In my eyes, this means that it will almost certainly translate to a high risk day, and the high risk will be right along our route, particularly in the western half of Oklahoma. We will see some showers potentially starting around Amarillo, with the severe threat starting around Shamrock, Texas. Storms will be most likely, as it appears right now, around Woodward and Watonga, north of our route, but we will be in the mix up to and through the Oklahoma City metro area. Tulsa doesn’t seem to be under the gun on Monday as much as other parts of the state, and we will call it a day in Claremore, hopefully able to rest easy as severe storms and tornadoes stay well to the west.

DAY THREE (Tuesday)
The storm system will sit and spin over the High Plains along the Colorado/Kansas border Monday until Tuesday, which will cause dry air to cycle in from the southwest, and rope out the cold front. It will stall over eastern Oklahoma and western Missouri. There may be some showers and thunderstorms as we get started, however we should be through them by the time we get past Springfield, Missouri. The activity is likely to get stronger as the day goes on, but our trek towards St. Louis and Illinois will be hot, humid and free of rain. We’ll make it to Terre Haute, Indiana before we finish things off on Wednesday.

DAY FOUR (Wednesday)
The cold front will get started again overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as the system spins north and loses it’s bearings. Showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm will be possible over Indiana and Ohio on Wednesday, but they won’t be nearly as intense as the storms we see on Tuesday.

Lima, Ohio

The Wrong time

Last week, we took a look at Corpus Christi, where a weak area of low pressure was developing along the Mexican border. The only real problem I had with it was that the rain associated with it came heavier and harder about a full day early. At least by my estimation, because the rest of the group seemed to get it right. Nobody got it right-er than The Weather Channel, who also handled a Monday that was cooler than expected.
Actuals: Monday – .57 inches of rain, High 79, Low 68
Tuesday .07 inches of rain, High 84, Low 75

Grade: C

Racine, Wisconsin to Phoenix, Arizona

I think a nice trip down to the desert would suit the winter much better. Instead, it seems like someone in the Midwest wishing summer would arrive is getting too much too fast. The drive will take 3+ days, and cover 1771 miles. The drive will be surprisingly slow, at only a bit more than 65mph, which means the first two days will be through after 524.7 miles traveled. Chicago and some time off interstates will contribute o our delayed transit, but also provide a chance for more scenery.

Racine, Wisconsin

DAY ONE (Thursday)
All right, let’s go! Midwest driving is the best. Wide open spaces, but with enough towns so you can find a gas station, and won’t need to pee on the side of the road in case of emergency. There is a pretty small time cold front moving through the Upper Midwest, and it is more likely to touch off a few thunderstorms in Minnesota and northern Wisconsin tomorrow. There will be enough general instability in southern Wisconsin and Iowa that we will probably see quite a bit of puffy cumulus clouds during our day, but none that will give us any reason to turn on the wipers, We’ll turn south at Des Moines. and reach Lathrop, Missouri, northeast of Kansas City before the day’s end.

DAY TWO (Friday)
A menacing batch of low pressure will develop through the day in the Colorado plains on Friday. Ultimately, it won’t produce a lot of thunderstorm activity but the activity that is generated will almost be entirely supercellular, with large hail and tornadoes the primary concern. These low precipitation, high rotation type of super cells are a chasers dream, so don’t be surprised by traffic in western Kansas as we head for the Panhandles. Of course, that added traffic will also probably indicate very nasty weather near by. The dry line will set up east of Guymon, Oklahoma, and we will make it to Stratford, Texas, in the far northern Panhandle, safe from the threat of a tornado outbreak on Friday night.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
The thing about New Mexico and Arizona is that they are always (save for far eastern New Mexico) on the dry side of dry lines. Sun and heat are going to bear down on the lower lying terrain, while it will be a bit cooler in the higher elevations. Some light rain is possible up in Colorado, but by golly, we’re going to get to Phoenix hot, sunny and sweaty, just they way it’s supposed to be.

Phoenix, Arizona
By Alan StarkFlickr: Downtown Phoenix Skyline Lights, CC BY-SA 2.0, Link

Phoenix, Arizona

Happy Mother’s Day to all the Moms up on Sunday night reading weather blogs!

At 551PM, PT, Phoenix was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with overcast skies. The overcast was a high overcast, and not indicative of any significant weather in the area. There was a it of instability in the southwestern United States in conjunction with an upper level wave, but the shower activity has steered clear from Phoenix.
The tail of the jet providing the upper level instability for these showers and storms will pull west through Texas as the week begins. This will leave a weak upper level ridge in the desert Southwest, and Phoenix is in the clear to start the work week.
Tomorrow – Increasingly sunny, High 91, Low 68
Tuesday – Sunny, High 95, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 94, Low 66
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 98, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 92, Low 66
Tuesday – Mostly sunny; warm High 97, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94 Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny, High 97, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny and warmer, High 92, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny, High 96, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, High 97, Low 69

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 95, Low 65
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 98, Low 68

Looks like we are on the cool end. Hard to think warm thoughts when you are living a cool spring. Here is the satellite with a rogue thunderstorm closer to Yuma.

Not stalling

OK, we’ve been sitting on this verification for a while. When you see how bad everyone did, you’ll think it was a stall tactic, but really, I’ve just been really busy. Denver is a tricky place to forecast for, and they pulled out all the stops during the last weekend of April. After a rain soaked Friday, Saturday dodged all the rain drops, and the clear morning skies meant the morning low was significantly colder than we bargained for. And then Sunday, it did rain a little bit. Strangely, that rain came with a significant warm up that outclassed meteorologist’s wildest dreams. All told, Victoria-Weather and Accuweather backed into a tie for the top forecast, but it will probably go down as the worst of the first half of he year, at least.
Actuals: Saturday (26th) – Hgh 67, Low 39
Sunday (27th) – Rain reported, not measured, High 78, Low 41

Grade: D-F