We are a couple of days from the end of the month, but with a handful of forecasts coming up, and a looming threat of severe weather coming tomorrow, I thought we might as well grab some time now to reward the top forecaster from the past month. The top spot this month belonged to the fine folks at the National Weather Service, who took the prize, thanks to good old fashioned consistency.

After a relatively docile November, the end of the month is going to provide quite a bit of climactic intrigue. Low pressure is already spiraling through the Rust Belt on it’s way to New England. It will make for a wet trek home from Thanksgiving for a lot of people, and even includes some rumbles of thunder in western Pennsylvania, and will likely bring snow to interior New England this evening.

This storm is a hassle, definitely, but a real show is massing in the northern Plains. The next trough is going to dip to the south and give rise to a strong area of low pressure developing in the middle of the country. Things will really come together on Tuesday evening, seemingly from nothing.

The center of low pressure will slide north of the Canadian Border on Tuesday, with a slow moving cold front extending from southern Minnesota to the Denver area, with snow showers expected along the boundary on Tuesday. As the feature shifts into Manitoba, things will really take off. Moisture will start flowing northward as the low taps into the Gulf, while an undercutting area of low pressure emerges in the mid Mississippi Valley. This will lead to some higher output snow bands on the northeastern stretch of the low. Some spots from southeastern Minnesota to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan will see 6+ inches of accumulation.

Also, with the atmospheric machinations and additional moisture, there is a looming threat for severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley. The undercutting low will produce a cold front of it’s own, and this will be the focal point for severe weather. Strong straight line winds are going to be a wide ranging problem, but the twisting and turning of flow in the region will also induce an seasonably high tornado threat.

The highest threat will be around sunset, just before and after, stretching from the Bootheel of Missouri to about Natchez, Mississippi. I would expect some supercellular storms in eastern Arkansas and northeast Louisiana, putting places like Monroe, Louisiana at risk for tornadoes. Things will aggregate into a line, bringing a more widespread straightline wind threat to western Tennessee and Mississippi, though embedded tornadoes are still going to be possible through the evening. The severe threat won’t last into the night, but rain and storms will be an issue in Alabama, Georgia and most of the eastern Seaboard on Wednesday.

The target area for severe weather is pictured below by the SPC.

It’s definitely going to be a nasty day for a lot of people on Tuesday, whether it be the snow in the north, the severe weather to the south, or the cold rain in between.

We are two days before Thanksgiving, and if you are like me, and many people are, you are going to be traveling. The biggest travel period starts today, with return trips coming from Friday through the weekend.

Today and this afternoon, most of the country is going to be great for taking the trek to see family and loved ones. The exception is the Pacific Northwest, where a round of mountain snow and rain across Puget Sound could make any passages across the Cascades tricky. If you are in Seattle and have loved ones in Yakima, make sure to check conditions in Snoqualmie before you head out!

The rough weather in Washington will be short lived, though, and tomorrow looks even better for travel. There will be a bit of a return flow through the Red River Valley which may mean some light rain in Dallas, while the snow seen in Washington will diminish to just a few mountain flakes in the northern Rockies of Montana and Wyoming.

These two features portend a trickier trek home, however. The combination of low pressure emerging in the northern Plains and moisture arriving in the southern Plains are going to fuel rain and thunderstorms from the Piney Woods to the Lower Mississippi Valley by the time dinner wraps up on Thanksgiving. Storms could get a little heavy from Corpus Christi to Houston, so be on the look out deep in Texas.

Black Friday will be a gray Friday across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Persistent rain and thunderstorms will be possible from Louisiana to Mississippi and steadily increase eastward to Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. On the back side of this feature, I wouldn’t rule out some snow mixing around Lubbock and Lawton. On the north end, a cold front dangling from CAnada will move from northeast Minnesota and charge east towards the Great Lakes and ultimately land in New England by evening. It should be warm enough that rain will fall in the Great Lakes, but don’t be surprised to see snow in northern New England on Friday evening.

The low pressure bringing snow potentials to Texas will fill with warmer air, and tamp out the snow threat. Still, rain, heavy at times, will become increasingly likely through the mid Mississippi Valley eastward to Virginia, the Carolinas and Georgia. The steadiest wet weather right now seems to be seeking out St. Louis and Kansas City, but it’s too early to stake this forecast out as gospel truth.

This whole feature is going to really get ugly overnight Saturday into Sunday. It will start to draw on colder air from Canada and the Gulf Stream to ramp up rain and wind. Expect a very rainy start to Sunday from Cape Cod to the Delmarva as what is likely the year’s first Nor’Easter gets organized. Fortunately, it’s likely too warm to be a snow event, but the wind and cold rain will still be unpleasant enough. Rain falling on Buffalo may also lead to some urban flooding.

This system will blast through New England by the time night falls, fortunately, but it will leave behind that cold, windy weather that can only mean that the glad tidings of Thanksgiving are over, and winter is replacing autumn. Elsewhere, the travel period will end as it is starting: snow in the Cascades, but not much else.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. Safe travels!

The beginning of winter and the approach of spring are tenuous times for the Great Lakes. With a cold November interacting with yet unfrozen lakes, all it takes is a persistent wind to lead to some particularly impressive snow totals. Suburban Buffalo is in the crosshairs for those kinds of numbers.

The snow is supposed to be heavy enough and at such a time that due to safety concerns for he fans, the Buffalo Bills home game has been moved to Detroit for the weekend. Orchard Park, home of the Bills, is south of that 21.4″ forecast in the city of Buffalo, and could be inline for nearly 3 more feet of snow. (This forecast is for snow on top of what has already been received.)

What is wild about this, is the synoptic outlook for the region, and really the country. Sure, there is low pressure in eastern Canada driving the west-southwest flow off of Lake Erie but there isn’t a lot of atmospheric moisture attendant to the feature.

Buffalo, and Watertown in the same position, just northeast of Lake Ontario, are simply in the wrong place, withstanding a full fetch off their respective Great Lake. Fortunately, much of the rest of the country, excepting the Gulf Coast, where rain is likely tonight, is headed for a pretty quiet travel weekend. Unless you are heading to Buffalo.