Jefferson City, Missouri to Casper, Wyoming

I love absolutely nothing more than mostly rural road trips through the middle of nowhere. Imagine how big Casper is going to seem after this 2 day voyage! It’s a 921 mile journey between these two towns, which we will pace at 64.5mph, ending the first day at the 516 mile mark. Let’s go on this windswept journey!

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Jefferson City, Missouri

A broad, disorganized area of low pressure has been bringing fairly steady light snow to much of the Northern Plains for the last couple of days. It’s a nuisance, but it hasn’t yet drifted so far south to impact Missouri, and the drive through the Show Me State and Kansas City will be fine. We will pop north and cut through Lincoln (the last sizeable town for the rest of the drive) and head west, where a lobe of that mass of light snow will start digging to the south. The feature won’t reach Nebraska until the overnight, and we should reach Lexington, in south central Nebraska without much fuss. Don’t let that lull you into a false sense of security.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
Windy conditions with light snow can make for some terrible visibility, and that is what we can expect west of North Platte. The precipitation, but not the wind, will taper by noon, with the snow becoming more likely in the mountains off Wyoming by the end of the day. Snow or no snow, conditions will be challenging in Nebraska, and only a little bit better in Wyoming. If the roads are clear, that will be good news. Casper certainly sounds like a friendly destination, doesn’t it? It will have a faint dusting of snow when we arrive.

Casper, Wyoming

A big rebound

We were forecasting down in east Texas to start the month of November, which was buried under a combination of cold air and onshore flow. College Station was even cooler than expected on the 1st, partially because of a little bit of light rain that fell on town to start the the month, and partially because of the lingering effects of a powerful early season cold front. The trough was narrow though, and temperatures bounced back vigorously on the 2nd, going from a high of 68 on the first to 79 on the 2nd. The National Weather Service collected the victory for this forecast posted on Halloween.
Actuals: Nov 1st – .05 inches of rain, High 68, Low 58
Nov 2nd – High 79, Low 54

Grade: B-C

Jefferson City, Missouri

We are heading back to Missouri for our forecast today, and this time, we are taking it to the manager, visiting the state capital.

At 553AM, CT, Jefferson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 65 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure centered over the Upper Midwest is producing a warm front that ranged through the northern Great Lakes, and was drawing forth a significant warm surge through the Mississippi Valley, bringing forth the unusual warmth in early November.
As with most autumnal systems, there is a strong cold front dangling off the back end of the low pressure center, This active pattern is also punctuated by the remnants of Hurricane Nicole over Florida, and drifting north into southern Appalachia. The cold front will be active with showers and storms over northwestern Missouri this afternoon and evening, with the chance of a shower arriving near sunrise tomorrow. Nicole, however, will sap most of the moisture moving towards Jefferson City, which will tone down the rain chances through the day Friday. That said, mid layer clouds and a rush of cooler air will still trail the boundary, making for a chilly start to the weekend.
Tomorrow – Early showers lead to clouds and cold, High 52, Low 30
Saturday – Partly cloudy but colder, High 37, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 51, Low 33
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 40, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, partly to mostly sunny and cooler; the colder weather will linger into next week High 53, Low 32
Saturday – Mostly sunny and cold High 40, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, (early storms) High 50, Low 30
Saturday – Sunny High 38, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny (early rain), High 53, Low 32
Saturday – Sunny, High 40, Low 26

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 34
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 51, Low 31
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 40, Low 25

The cold front over northern Missouri is looming. Enjoy the heat today, because winter is around the corner.

September/October Forecaster of the Month

In the past, when I was unable to get to a forecaster of the month, and I paired two months into one post, I would title the post “ForecasterS of the Month.” You’ll note that I did not pluralize it this time around, for the very good reason that the forecaster was one and the same for both months. Autumn has swept in, and Victoria-Weather has swept two months in a row!

This is a win, admittedly, for model guidance. Hurricane Ian devastated southwest Florida, but otherwise, the US was impressively dry. Precipitation was sparse, which meant there was little variation from model guidance, and V-W knew how to read the output. Go team!

OutletForecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug7.33
The Weather Channel7.33
Accuweather7.32
Victoria-Weather6.82
National Weather Service6.16
WeatherNation4.83
Forecast.io4.16

Needed rain

When a drought is on, there is nothing better than a long, steady rain, and at the beginning of last week, that is exactly what Columbia, Missouri got. Over two inches of rain fell between Monday and Tuesday of last week, giving the region a drink, and starting to rejuvenate the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Everyone had rain in the forecast, and correctly prognosticated a non-standard day, though I don’t think anyone was this optimistic on total rainfall. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the day, which ultimately came down to solid temperature trending.
Actuals: Monday, Oct 24th, .59 inches of rain, High 74, Low 58
Tuesday, October 25th, 1.45 inches of rain, High 56, Low 42

Grade: B-D