10:42PM – One thing we don’t see enough of that we get to enjoy tonight? Rain on the west coast, even as June turns to July. A band of showers is rolling through southern Oregon, giving the area a healthy drink.
Updates 6/28
11:28pm: If you are in the Twin Cities and still up, I would just go ahead and stay up a little bit longer
Sandusky, Ohio
There are a surprising number of large cities in Ohio, and I’m not sure that most people are aware of all of them. Sandusky is the third largest, just on the shore of Lake Erie, however if you are familiar with Cedar Point Amusement Park, you probably have heard of Sandusky.
At 455PM, ET, Sandusky was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with overcast conditions. There was a smattering of thunderstorms across Ohio, Michigan and Lake Erie, including a few that were producing severe hail. The nearest was a storm about 20 miles south of Sandusky, drifting to the southeast. This was all a part of a slow moving warm front across the Great Lakes, which was keeping the area from the historic heatwave in the Eastern US, but also allowing for the severe storms.
The pattern in the northern Plains, at least over the lower levels, will continue to be unsettled, but the jet structure is going to lift north and away from there. The instability in the Plains will work with the heat and humidity under the jet ridge in the east, lifting north and continuing to bring thunderstorms to the Sandusky area. A surface trough will drift through the area late on Friday, bringing the best chance of thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 85, Low 73
Friday – Partly cloudy, a few afternoon and evening storms, High 88, Low 75
TWC: Tomorrow – Sun and clouds mixed with a slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Hgh 86, Low 71
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 75
AW: Tomorrow – Warm and very humid with a thunderstorm in the area; cloudy in the morning, then times of sun and clouds in the afternoon High 86, Low 71
Friday – Very warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in a couple of spots in the afternoon High 89, Low 73
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 72
Friday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 74
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers. High 85, Low 75
Friday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 76
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms, High 86, Low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of storms, High 89, Low 74
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 90, Low 73
Friday – Light rain showers, High 93, Low 75
Clime is going on the warm side, even tomorrow. Here is a look at the radar, with that storm to the south of Sandusky.
Destroyed by drops
Victoria-Weather posted the best forecast for Pueblo a couple of weeks ago, if you conveniently forget a 36 minute stretch on the afternoon of the 12th. V-W topped all other outlets when we just talked about the temperatures. But there was a brief spit of rain on the afternoon of the 12th, which crashed V-W all the way to 6th place, and instead handed a victory to Accuweather and the National Weather Service, who converged on the same score.
Actuals: June 11th, High 91, Low 54
June 12th, .01 inches of rain, High 91, Low 53
Grade: B-D
Lincoln, Nebraska
I once had a first generation GPS in my vehicle that pronounced both L’s in the name “Lincoln” and now I can’t say it any other way. Thanks, technology.
At 118PM, CT, Lincoln was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 80 degrees. The passage of a cool front was imminent. The leading gust front was already south of town – Beatrice was reporting 91 degrees — though the cold front itself was highlighted by a band of showers from Tekamah to Hastings, and temperatures behind the front were in the 60s.
The boundary is associated with low pressure headed towards Hudson Bay, along a jet that is not expected to start moving. A heat dome on the east coast is holding things at bay in the Plains, so the boundary north of Lincoln will merely oscillate and fade in southeastern Nebraska. Given it’s position today, there may be some strong thunderstorms tonight in the Lincoln area, but the window is closing quickly. Tomorrow, the remnant boundary may lead to a few showers. A trough in the Desert Southwest will help push the surface boundary north by mid-week, and Lincoln will be hot and drier on Wednesday afternoon, despite some shower threat on Wednesday morning. The jet itself will remain in place, and gusty winds will be seen throughout the period.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers early and storms in the afternoon, High 83, Low 70
Wednesday – Lingering showers in the morning, then clearing and hot, High 94, Low 73
TWC: Tomorrow – A few showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 83, Low 69
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 84, Low 72
AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm, especially late; humid; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds High 82, Low 71
Wednesday – Partly sunny, breezy and warmer; a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 92, Low 72
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 10am, then showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 70
Wednesday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 95, Low 72
WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely. A chance of thunderstorms in the morning then thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 79, Low 71
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid High 91, Low 72
WN: tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers and scattered storms, High 87, Low 70
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 95, Low 72
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 84, Low 70
Wednesday – Thunderstorm, High 93, Low 72
I think a lot of people are looking at that band of showers, representing the cold front, and willing it to keep moving further and further south. It’s hot out east!
Coming Soon…
Our next forecasts will take us through the beginning of summer. I’m going to tell you that it means we are going to see some warm temperatures, and not just because one of our forecasts is for Phoenix.
Sandusky, Ohio
Fort Smith, Arkansas
Road Trip from Fort Collins, Colorado to Fort Smith
Phoenix, Arizona
Pueblo, Colorado to Santa Cruz, California
We are taking a two and a half day drive through the western US on this occasion. Expect heat, undulating terrain and a pace of 67mph, or so, with a daily goal of 537 miles. Driving in California is a challenge of it’s own, so we can plan a half day drive in the Golden State. Westward, ho!
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
It’s getting busy in the Plains, with showers and storms offering quite a bit for storm chasers to enjoy. The storms usually show up in the afternoon and north of the Palmer Divide lately, and neither of those will apply to our time in Pueblo. In fact, eastern Colorado is looking at a respite from the stormy conditions on Wednesday, so, if anything, it might just be a bit dusty. We will head first south to Albuquerque and west to Petrified Forest National Park, all without a drop. It will be a beautiful drive, and undoubtedly a bit on the warm side.
DAY TWO (Thursday)
If the desert heat doesn’t much bother you on Wednesday, I have a guess that it may on Thursday. We will drive through the heat of the Mohave (in fact, stopping in the town of Mohave for the night) after getting out of the higher terrain of Arizona. Low pressure is setting up a bit in the Rockies, so there could be some light wind, but really, it will be fairly tame as compared to what it usually is (it will be around 100). Your tires aren’t going to melt.
DAY THREE (Friday)
The rise and fall of our drive through the Coastal Range will be the real climate winner for the day. Temperatures will drop to something more tolerable, chilly, even, when the wind is up. Monterey bay will be serene, and we will enjoy our time in Santa Cruz.
The misty mountains
Our forecast in Dalton earlier this month was within a string of potentially stormy days for the southeast. Just because of how the topography works, and the inflow of moisture isn’t as robust further north, away from the Gulf. But the moisture did reach to Dalton, importantly, because not everyone expected it to, not both the 4th and the 5th, and in a couple of cases, not on either day. Rain fall was very light, but a mismanaged precipitation forecast ended up securing the victory for the Weather Service.
Actuals: June 4th, .01″ of rain, High 85, Low 69
June 5th, High .02″ of rain, High 84, Low 65
Grade: B, D
Jonesboro, Arkansas to Pueblo, Colorado
It’s a two day trek through the Plains between Jonesboro and Pueblo. We will cover 891 miles at a pace of a mere 61.1mph, of which very little wll e on the interstate. The first day will conclude after about 489 miles of motoring. This feels like a drive that should be done in an old pick up, doesn’t it?
DAY ONE (Thursday)
I’ve recently been to Jonesboro, and it is a nice little town. It was a bit on the rainy side when I visited a few years ago, and it will be more of the same as we head out on Thursday morning. A bit of an upper level trough will help open up the Gulf, with moisture tracking through the lower Mississippi Valley. The northern terminus of rain shower activity will mirror our route. Showers will be off and on throughout the day, and we will reach the western edge of the rain fall activity by the end of the day, between Wichita and Hutchinson in the town of Haven.
DAY TWO (Friday)
All of this activity is going to be swept up and way towards the Ohio Valley, and ready to spend the weekend in New England, where all precipitation spends it’s weekend. This will give us a lovely, unaffected drive through Kansas. A bit of a lee trough is going to start cycling some air as we approach Pueblo, but it won’t impact us in terms of precipitation, instead producing some orographic thunderstorms in Wyoming, near the Sand Hills of Nebraska. No problem in Pueblo!
Updates 6/11
12:11PM – It is not the weekend, and do you know how I know that? Because it is not raining anywhere in the mid-Atlantic or New England (also because I have a calendar). It’s been raining on the weekend for several weeks in a row almost everywhere, and that total is mounting up to months worth of weekends now. It’s probably going to rain again this coming weekend, too.