Hey, we’re off on another forecasting adventure. Today, we’ll head down to the south central US, where Pine Bluff may be in the firing line for some strong thunderstorms.
At 253PM, CT, Pine Bluff was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There were isolated thunderstorms cropping up across the southeastern portion of Arkansas, including some isolated cells on their way towards Pine Bluff, though the heaviest activity was closer to Greenville, Mississippi. The activity was associated with a flow off the Gulf of Mexico, enriching the region with a dose of muggy, unstable air. With a little bit of disturbed air to the west, there was ample fuel for an isolated storm in the Arkansas area.
There is a weak trough aloft moving through the Canadian Prairies that was the impetus for southerly flow to transport the Gulf moisture. An associated cold front will stall in northern Arkansas by early next week, allowing the southerly flow to continue to rush towards the boundary. While the boundary is still fairly organized tomorrow, Pine Bluff will remain mostly dry, however as it becomes more diffuse, the threat for showers and isolated embedded storms will increase across southern Arkansas.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High 80, Low 64
Monday – Scattered showers with a few storms in the evening, High 79, Low 66
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 81, Low 62
Monday – Thunderstorms. High 76, Low 61
AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 81, Low 62
Monday – Cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 79, Low 62
NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Partly sunny High 82, Low 63
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 64
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 80, Low 63
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. High 78, Low 64
WN: Tomorrow -Partly cloudy with isolated storms. HIgh 82, Low 64
Monday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 81, Low 63
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning.High 88, Low 65
Monday – Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 84, Low 65
I sincerely have no idea how FIO came out that high with their forecast. In any event, the NWS had a nice looping image of the current radar on their home page, so you can see the cell as it approaches Pine Bluff.