It’s time for a forecast in Arkansas. Arkansas finds itself between the Dixie Alley and the more traditional Tornado Alley in the high Plains, and sees it’s fair share of twisters. This is the time of year for them, but will that be the case this week?

At 953PM, CT, Pine Bluff was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with overcast skies. Surface low pressure over the Great Lakes is dragging a cold front through northern Louisiana. A chilly north wind is blowing throughout Arkansas, and while much of the state is expected to cool significantly overnight, it will likely be slow to do so in Pine Bluff. A jet running parallel to the base of the trough is suspending the cold front, leaving clouds across southern Arkansas, and preventing radiational cooling. Amid the clouds are a few light rain showers streaming across Arkansas, but dropping dew points in the area are preventing all the rain seen on radar from reaching the ground.
In the entrance area of the southern jet, there is going to be some disorganized shower and thunderstorm development. Onshore flow in the region will bring about enough moisture and potential energy for some rain and embedded thunderstorms across east Texas, with some activity spilling eastward. The best threat for rain will be on Sunday, wrapping up late in the evening. Monday should mostly be dry, but unseasonably cool. More clouds are expected to move in late on Monday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers ending in the late evening, High 55, Low 45
Monday – Mostly sunny, with clouds returning late, High 65, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies (early rain). High 59, Low 46
Monday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 69, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and cooler High 59, Low 48
Monday – Mostly cloudy High 69, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of rain before 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 45
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning. High 68, Low 47
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 58, Low 45
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 42

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 61, Low 45
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 43

Model guidance is falling short of the blend and consensus temperature forecasts. We’ll see who is better, man or machine. Rain has moved into Pine Bluff since I started writing this forecast.