Tag Archives: Sebastian

The sort of verification

Unfortunately for the egos of meteorologists featured on Victoria-Weather, there isn’t a reporting station at Sebastian. Oh, sure, we can sort of figure out what went on late last week, thanks to the observations in nearby Vero Beach. We all suspected a threat of some isolated showers and storms, with an emphasis on the AM activity, and an increase on Friday. We can’t be sure that’s how it worked out in Sebastian, but it sure did in Vero Beach! Temperatures were probably pretty close to 90 both days, as they were in Vero, and that’s in line with what everyone had. With such approximate forecasts, it’s a real bummer we won’t get to settle this forecast for real, but everything does seem like we did a pretty good job.

Sebastian, Florida

Today we are off to the Space Coast of Florida, and the city of Sebastian, which lies between Melbourne and Vero Beach. I imagine the weather there is going to be quite wonderful, though perhaps a bit toasty. Let’s see if I’m right.

At 10am, ET The east coast of Florida was fairly uniform, with temperatures at 87 in both Melbourne and Vero Beach. The sea breeze was most active on the Gulf side of the Peninsula, but as the afternoon warms up, those storms should become more widespread over the center of the state, if the past couple of days are any indication. Temperatures will top out in the low 90s, though rogue thunderstorms will bring temperatures down with cool outflow.
The thunderstorm activity across the Florida Peninsula has primarily been found inland, allowing for collapsing storms to produce the cool outflows that have been seen along the coast in recent days. High pressure continues to extend from the Gulf of Mexico east across Florida, and local thermal dynamics will continue to provide direction for the weather, with early showers and storms possible, before the daily instability shifts further inland on each of the next two days. A cold front reaching the northern border of Florida will enhance the threat for later in the day storms for Sebastian, as flow will take a more southerly approach.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms in the morning, High 90, Low 75
Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms, High 90, Low 76

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 95, Low 75
Friday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 95, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine, a thunderstorm in spots High 89, Low 74
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine, a thunderstorm in spots; humid High 90, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, High 90, Low 72
Friday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 92, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy through late morning then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 86, Low 74
Friday – Partly cloudy with showes and thunderstorms likely, High 87, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 90, Low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 92, Low 74

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the afternoon. High 86, Low 74
Friday – Light rain in the afternoon. High 84, Low 75

For a coastal Florida site in the heart of summer, those are some awfully chilly forecasts. Of course, with the random whims of Floridian thunderstorms, who really knows?

Cold fronts work in Florida too

Over the weekend, Anthony posted a video of storm damage as a cold front moved through Orlando. Just down the road toward the beach, Sebastian was a day removed from our forecast. The same front that brought the nasty weather to Orlando was unkind to Sebastian as well, bringing nearly 50mph winds and a half inch of rain. Not only did the front bring a day of rocky weather on Sunday, it also knocked temperatures down. The high on Sunday before the thunderstorms was 91. On Monday, it only hit 78. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast, properly anticipating the effects of this mean little front.
Actuals: Sunday – .49 inches of rain, High 91, Low 69
Monday – High 78, Low 54

New London, Connecticut to Sebastian, Florida

Finally, we’re headed to the beach! 2 1/2 days from Connecticut to Sebastian through a fairly busy stretch of highway along the Eastern Seaboard. It’s a 1270 mile drive that we will cover at a pace of only 61.3mph, giving us 490.1 miles apiece on those first two days. Let’s go catch some sun!

DAY ONE
New London
We have a developing situation in the southern US, and it’s working its way north. Things will be fairly innocuous as we try to navigate our way through New York and Philadelphia, but life will get a touch less charmed south of Washington. Rain will be falling through out Virginia in a stratiform mass as a warm/occluded front lifts north along the coast. Get the umbrellas out as we make our stop for the night in Hopewell, Virginia, near Petersburg.

DAY TWO
Colder air will begin to cycle into Virginia overnight as we sleep in Hopewell, and there may be a bit of a wintry mix as we set forth on our day. It will probably be remain as rain and won’t give us much issue as we head south, but I did want to mention it. The precipitation will begin to clear out as we head south through Rocky Mount, North Carolina, but it will remain breezy and seasonably cool as we head through the Carolinas. Warmer weather will begin to move in as we approach Eulonia, Georgia, halfway between Brunswick and Savannah, the stop for the night.

DAY THREE
The wind and oddly chilly air will remain with us as we head south through Georgia. Only around Jacksonville will the chilly northwest wind taper off and temperatures will start to warm up. Things will e perfect for a little spring break vacation when we arrive in Sebastian.
Sebastian

Sebastian, Florida

We are heading for the Atlantic coast of Florida. Enough of this winter.

At 353PM, ET, Sebastian was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A developing boundary over north Florida was triggering widespread thunderstorms generally north of Palm Coast, with some developing storms already showing up around Cape Canaveral. There were indications that more isolated storms were beginning to crop up in and around Sebastian as well.
A surface low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will interact with this boundary and become occluded as it shifts northeast towards the Carolinas. A weak cold front will move through Florida tomorrow evening, helping to cool temperatures a bit. There is a chance for some thunderstorm activity on Sunday afternoon as the front rolls through, but it will not be persistent of widespread. On Monday, cooler temperatures with clearer skies.
Tomorrow – Isolated afternoon thunderstorms with wind. High 88, Low 66
Monday – Cooler and breezy, High 77, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Isolated T-Storms / Wind High 88, Low 68
Monday – Partly Cloudy High 74, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of t-storms around, mainly later, when they can be strong; clouds and sun, windy, warm High 87, Low 68
Monday – Breezy and not as warm with intervals of clouds and sun High 75, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A chance of showers and thunderstorms before Sunset. Windy. High 89, Low 67
Monday – Sunny…breezy. High 76, Low 63

The three of us that forecast out 48 hours all have this as a non standard day for the city of Sebastian. A cold front taking temperatures down to the mid-70s. Ho awful.
Sebastian