Category Archives: Uncategorized

Gordon slips by

There was a dramatic radar loop attached to the forecast for Dothan, but, at least in that southeast Alabama town, it was for naught. The storm moved up the Mississippi Valley and left Dothan unperturbed. Accuweather had no rain in the forecast, and picked up the top forecast for the day because of it. 
Actuals: Wednesday, High 86, Low 74
Thursday – High 91, Low 73

Grade: A-D

Lane skirts Hawai’i, still brings rain

As we learned with the record breaking rains in Kauai earlier this year, the high mountains of Hawaii do the islands no favors during heavy rain events. Hurricane Lane dwindled to a Tropical Storm by the time it afflicted the Islands and mostly spared Oahu, Maui and Kauai, but the Big Island bore the brunt of torrential rains. Not only is Kilauea continuing to erupt, but it also played a role in triggering flash flooding for the island. CBS News has all the pictures you might need.

Lake Havasu City, Arizona to Miami, Florida

Have you ever thought you needed a vacation? Or more specifically, have you ever thought you needed to travel between two vacation destinations? Well, that’s what we get today, with a 4 ½ day, 2654 mile journey. We will get a good head of steam, with a pace of 71.7mph (cruisin’!) driving through the desert for half the trip, and will encounter 573.8 miles on the first 4 days which is frankly an impressive clip.

DAY ONE (Friday)

 

I can see why one might think this is an easy forecast, where I could just say “hot and dry until you hit Texas” but this is monsoon season in the Rockies, In Arizona during the early afternoon, the threat will primarily be in the higher terrain between Flagstaff and Phoenix, but there is a chance for some pop up showers and storms as we cross into New Mexico. Those storms are going to continue to be a possibility all the way into Las Cruces, where our night will end. 

DAY TWO (Saturday)
That diurnal shower and storm activity of the Rockies will only continue through the weekend. Activity is expected to linger in the El Paso area through the morning, but even as we take the hour or two from Las Cruces should be able to make it to west Texas with nary a drop. Ok, now is the time to complain about how boring it is. We’ll be fully out of the woods by Fort Stockton, and our day will take us to the San Antonio suburb of Boerne.

DAY THREE (Sunday)
Sunday looks to be a dry day across east Texas, and you can rest assured that it will be hot and humid. We should be able to make it through Lake Charles before we have to worry about any thunderstorm activity. The primary risk will be centered around Lafayette, if only because storms are going to shift further inland as the day rolls on. There will be a stray shower somewhere along the rest of the route, I’m sure, but it won’t be as persistent as early in the day around Lafayette. We’ll almost reach Mississippi by day’s end, calling it a day in Slidell.

DAY FOUR (Monday)
Low pressure will be forming in the central Plains, but in the southeast, there won’t be a whole lot of organization to the activity. Right now, the models indicate a splash of rain around Mobile early, and some afternoon thunderstorms in north central Florida, but in truth, I think the threat will be there for showers early and thudnerstorms after about 2pm (say around Destin, Florida) for the entirety of the route. We will be near Orlando by day’s end, stopping in Groveland, Florida.

DAY FIVE (Tuesday)
High pressure mentioned in our forecast for Miami will be braking down in the western Atlantic north of the Bahama This will only mean a more likely clash of air masses in south Florida. Thunderstorms will be possible anywhere through the afternoon, but will likely start close to the coast and press inland as the day continues. Fortunately, we are moving in the opposite direction, and the threat will wind down as we reach Miami.

El Paso, Texas

El Paso has always fascinated me. It’s so far removed from the rest of the major urban areas, but is still such a large city. It’s a mystery right here in America. Have you ever heard El Paso described so romantically?

At 651, MT, El Paso was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The tail end of a cold front lies through the southeastern US and into central Texas, and feeding into it, at least aloft, there is some streaming cirrus through west Texas, likely to keep the temperatures from falling off too much overnight.
A broad, generally weak trough extends from Montana to southern California, and is indicating the flow through west Texas. The exit region of the jet will continue to run from the Baja towards the central Plains, which isn’t a particularly moisture rich course. Don’t expect precipitation for El Paso, but a continuation of the high clouds that are mottling the sky tonight.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 48
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny. High 73, Low 49
Monday – Partly cloudy skies, with gusty winds developing during the afternoon. High 66, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with a blend of sun and clouds High 72, Low 47
Monday -Breezy with partial sunshine High 65, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, (late rain)High 71, Low 48
Monday – Mostly sunny, (early rain) High 68, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Windy. (late rain) High 71, Low 56
Monday – Partly cloudy, windy (early rain). High 64, low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 71, Low 48
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until morning. High 72, Low 54
Monday – Breezy overnight and mostly cloudy until evening. HIgh 66, Low 54

That will feel a little brisk out in the open country around El Paso, but I tell you what, I would take a low in the mid 50s regardless of the wind. I would take a high in the mid-50s at this point. Here is the satellite, showing that cirruse traipsing over West Texas.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 07 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C07_G16_s20180482107190_e20180482109575_c20180482110014.nc

Columbia, South Carolina

There is a massive winter storm massing in the northern Plains, and that’s received a lot of my personal attention, but the system is big enough that the entire country stands to catch a little bit of it. What’s to come in the Carolinas?

At 1056AM, ET, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with sunny skies. There was a return to warmth after a significant winter storm in the region out ahead of the large system moving through the Plains, as warm southerly flow aloft was driving the advance of warm gulf air. Columbia was actually the cool spot at the hour, with several locations in the area already in the 60s.
High pressure will generally keep the region in pretty good shape tomorrow, through with intensifying warm air flow, it could be dirtied by a few mid level clouds and some isolated showers in the afternoon. The cold front attached to the large system in the Plains will produce severe thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley, however the surface low will become occluded, and the cold front weaker as it travels eastward. It will be weakened still by the time it arrives in Columbia, as it will arrive in the middle of the night, with only some gusty winds and a smattering of showers. Tuesday will be much better, as the sun reappears by noon, allowing for the high temperature to bounce back to something more comfortable.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, a few showers, especially late, High 64, Low 43
Tuesday – Showers in the morning, then clearing, High 62, Low 46 (Non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day.(Late Rain) High 68, Low 42
Tuesday –  Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 63, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Times of sun and clouds High 69, Low 42
Tuesday – After a cloudy start, sunshine returns (early rain) High 66, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (late rain), High 70, Low 42
Tuesday – A chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Sunny, High 65, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy, High 67, Low 42
Tuesday – Sunny. A chance of showers in the morning, High 64, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 70, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 65, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy overnight.High 62, Low 45
Tuesday – Rain starting overnight, continuing until morning, and breezy in the afternoon. High 64, Low 46

Obviously, the two outlets that don’t go out as far in their hourlies look to be hurt by this verification. Take a look at the satellite image that the Columbia NWS office links too on their page. Very pretty, but not super helpful.

Wheeling, West Virginia

Earlier this evening, I was conversing with a friend about a music festival we’ll be attending in a few months. My friend lives in Wheeling, WV currently. I better make it a good forecast or she’ll mock me ruthlessly!

At 953pm EST, the temperature at Wheeling, WV was 45 degrees under overcast skies. An area of low pressure is shifting through the Great Lakes tonight, pushing a cold front through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast during the day tomorrow. Some spotty shower activity is found in the area currently but will continue shifting towards the east as we push towards dawn. Dry weather is expected behind the front on Thursday but breezy conditions will keep the day fairly brisk tomorrow. Winds calm down as high pressure moves overhead Thursday night into Friday, so temperatures will drop somewhat sharply. Luckily, southwesterly flow on Friday will perk temperatures back up a few degrees, so Friday should be much nicer to be outside compared to Thursday.

Thursday: Isolated early morning rain shower, then overcast and breezy throughout the day. High 44, Low 34.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High 47, Low 30.

TWC: Thursday: Cloudy with some early morning showers. High 47, Low 35.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High 48, Low 29.

AW: Thursday: An early morning downpour possible, then rather cloudy, breezy. High 41, Low 34.
Friday: Partial sunshine. High 47, Low 27.

NWS: Thursday: A chance of morning rain/snow showers, then rain in afternoon. High 41, Low 33.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 49, Low 29.

WB: Thursday: Considerable cloudiness with a chance of rain and slight chance of snow showers. High 42, Low 34.
Friday: Partly cloudy, evening rain showers possible. High 46, Low 31.

WN: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix. High 45, Low 34.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High 49, Low 29.

FIO: Thursday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day, possible early AM shower. High 50, Low 37.
Friday: Foggy starting overnight, isolated snow showers late. High 44, Low 32.

Some isolated shower activity has shifted east of Wheeling during the late evening hours, and should clear out of the area as the day progresses.

Palm Bay, Florida

Today we head down to the Sunshine State as hurricane season looks to be winding down. Is something out on the horizon cause for concern or will this week be fairly quiet?

At 853pm EST, the temperature at Palm Bay, FL was 75 degrees under a few clouds. The good news is no tropical systems look to affect the FL Peninsula over the next couple of days, or really for a while at all as the only possible area of organization is waaay out over the Atlantic. A large area of high pressure is found over the Eastern US, keeping much of the country east of the Mississippi River dry. However, this area of high pressure is steering some shower activity that pops up over the Gulf Stream westward over the eastern shores of the FL Peninsula, which should be somewhat on the numerous side tomorrow. Wednesday will still see some activity, but more of the isolated to widely scattered variety. In any event, it should be a nice couple of days, but don’t be surprised if you have to dodge a couple of quick showers.

Tuesday: Few scattered showers possible. High 78, Low 70.
Wednesday: Isolated showers possible. High 77, Low 69.

TWC: Tuesday: Showers likely. High 78, Low 71.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, couple of isolated showers possible. High 77, Low 69.

AW: Tuesday: A brief shower or two. High 78, Low 72.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with a shower. High 78, Low 70.

NWS: Tuesday: Chance of showers. High 78, Low 69.
Wednesday: Chance of showers. High 78, Low 67.

WB: Tuesday: 50% chance of rain showers. High 76, Low 71.
Wednesday: 40% chance of rain showers. High 77, Low 69.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 79, Low 68.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 78, Low 65.

FIO: Tuesday: Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until night, chance of afternoon showers. High 78, Low 70.
Wednesday: Breezy until morning and partly cloudy with isolated showers throughout the day. High 78, Low 69.

There’s a couple bands of showers pushing their way onshore currently, and are expected to become a little bit more widespread tomorrow during the day.

Sacramento, California

Today we take a trip to the West Coast where we visit the capital of the most populous state in the country. It’s been sweltering there lately, will they finally see a cooldown?

At 905pm PDT, the temperature at Sacramento, CA was 72 degrees under fair skies. The Western US has been baking lately as an upper ridge sat over the region, sending the area shooting well into the 100s. Luckily for them, an upper low shifted into the area and cooled down things a bit, relatively, and brought in some shower activity to the Central Valley as well. Thunderstorms in the San Antonio area the other night brought about some spectacular images. Over the next couple of days, this upper low will begin an eastward shift, moving over Central CA and eventually over NV before dissipating. With the focus of precip being off to the north and east of the area already, dry weather is expected over the next couple of days, and decreasing temps.

Wednesday: Clouds clearing by afternoon. High 82, Low 65.
Thursday: Mostly clear. High 80, Low 61.

TWC: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 83, Low 64.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 81, Low 60.

AW: Wednesday: Periods of clouds and sun. High 82, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 78, Low 59.

NWS: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 63.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 79, Low 60.

WB: Wednesday: Chance of morning storms. High 81, Low 65.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 77, Low 62.

WN: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 84, Low 63.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 79, Low 61.

FIO: Wednesday: Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 66.
Thursday: Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until afternoon. High 82, Low 61.

Here we see a healthy amount of cloud cover northeast of Sacramento, but it’s moving mainly away from the region as an upper low continues to sit offshore. This feature will move eastward over the next couple days, pushing precip off over the Great Basin.

And You Get First! And YOU Get First! Everybody Gets First!

As expected, thunderstorms were all over the region, with a couple rounds of them on Tuesday dropping around quarter-inch of rain in Gulfport. Wednesday was more sporadic, as anticipated, as just an afternoon storm grazed the area, barely getting a few drops into the gauge. In an unprecedented result, there was a FIVE-WAY TIE FOR FIRST! Talk about a logjam!

Tuesday: 0.26″ of rain in thunderstorms. High 84, Low 77.
Wednesday: 0.01″ of rain in an afternoon thunderstorm. High 91, Low 75.
Forecast Grade: B

Hagerstown, Maryland to Johnson City, Tennessee

Today’s road trip falls just short of 400 miles, but will traverse 4 states as we travel through Appalachia. It’s just a day trip, but are there storms out there that will slow us down?

It will be mostly cloudy but dry to start the day driving southwards into western VA. However, a boundary that’s been camping out over the Virginias into NC over the last couple of days, and by midday, showers and thunderstorms will develop south of Roanoke. We’ll be dodging these storms for the duration of the afternoon as we continue down I-81 and eventually into Johnson City. We’re not anticipating any severe weather from these storms, but they could slow us down a bit at times.