Rain from the desert

Early last week, an area of low pressure developed in the 4 Corners and shifted into Texas, chasing the system that eventually led to the devastating tornadoes in Tennessee. The chasing system was a rainmaker, though, bringing more than an inch of rain to Killeen on Wednesday, which was probably unwelcome, but at least it was well predicted by a series of good forecasts. The best belonged to none other than Victoria-Weather, who are undefeated now in March.
Actuals: Tuesday – Trace of precipitation High 72, Low 62
Wednesday – 1.23 inches of rain, High 64, Low 49

Grade: A-C

Killeen, Texas to Greensboro, North Carolina

The southern US has been trounced by severe weather lately, from the devastating tornadoes in Nashville and Cookeville, Tennessee, to persistent thunderstorms nearer the Gulf Coast. There is a break in the action, finally, across the region but will it last for our 2 day, 1219 mile route. Will these storms return, or will we be able to manage a steady pace (estimated at 66mph, with a goal of 529 miles in day one)?

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Killeen, TX

A split jet stream over the eastern US is coming together off shore in the Gulf Stream, meaning any and all concerning weather is going to be off shore this weekend. The primary concern between Killeen and Brandon, Mississippi, our destination for the night, will be ensuring that we remember our sunglasses and sunscreen in case we want to sit outside for dinner east of Jackson.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
Brandon, Mississippi, is the home of the WFO for Jackson, and in my opinion is one of the best offices in the country. Too bad the weather is going to be so pleasant while we’re there. High pressure will only consolidate over the southeast, and the drive from Brandon to Greensboro will continue to be pleasant, though in the wake of the strong system now off shore, it might be a little cooler in Greensboro than anywhere else along our drive.

Greensboro, North Carolina

Killeen, Texas

We’re just following election states around, I guess. Well, this time, we are off to Texas, which votes tomorrow as part of Super Tuesday. I’m sure that regardless of who they support, Texans are all going to vote for good weather.

At 958PM, CT, Killeen was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with fair skies. There was some light rain in the area, south of Killeen. It’s not particularly heavy, and most of it is certainly not reaching the ground, however there were a few drips being reported in Junction and Marble Falls. That ground truth means it would be imprudent to take rain out of the overnight forecast in Killeen.
A complicated system in the eastern US is born of a jet with a split tail, merging over Indiana, with a weak cold front sweeping through Texas. The southern end of the front is troughing dramatically in the Desert Southwest, and as it translates to the east, cyclogenesis will be swift. The feature will move into Texas by tomorrow evening, with an active warm front arriving in town late in the evening. The low itself will arrive in the early morning on Wednesday, with heavy rain and some embedded thunderstorms starting around sunrise and lasting at least through the early afternoon, with light to moderate rain coming on the back end of the system and lasting through the afternoon and evening.
Tomorrow – Clouds and light rain arriving late, High 76, Low 62
Wednesday – Rain and thunderstorms through the day, High 64, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 76, Low 61
Wednesday – Rain likely. Potential for heavy rainfall. High 62, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and not as warm with a brief shower or two High 70, Low 59
Wednesday – Cooler; heavy rain and a thunderstorm in the morning, then a little rain; watch for flash flooding High 59, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. High 72, Low 59
Wednesday – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm High 60, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 75, Low 60
Wednesday, – Showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Then a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 64, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 72, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy iwth showers, High 60, Low 55

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 76, Low 61
Wednesday – Rain until evening.High 65, Low 49

If I had a vote, I would vote both against Weatherbug and my blogging software, because goodness, if they weren’t fickle tonight. Here is the radar, with that drizzle moving through central Texas.