Springing a leak

The verification in Killeen seemed to be perfectly in order. Victoria-Weather, in fact, ended up with only two degrees of error in the forecast. There were a few outlets that were narrowly off the pace, which would have been an A forecast for our group, if it weren’t for one thing. It rained on both days of the verification, and nobody had it in their forecast. Victoria-Weather ended up with the victory, but it wasn’t as gaudy as it could have been.
Actuals – June 6th, .02″ of rain, High 94, Low 72
June 7th, .01″ of rain, High 94, Low 72

Grade: C-D

Killeen, Texas to Albuquerque, New Mexico

It’s Friday, so it’s time to head to Albuquerque. Isn’t that all the logic you need? We’re taking a driver through Texas in a lot of two lane highways. Our drive will cover 657 fairly slow miles, at a pace of 62.9mph, but we’ll wrap this drive up in one day! We’ll even get an hour back, and our 10 hour drive will end a mere 9 hours after we start. Road

Killeen, Texas

This is a classic summer day in the south central US. The pavement will be melting because of the heat, but it will be sunny, and we’ll be able to drive without an interruption (aside from bathroom breaks — drink a lot of water with this heat) through the morning and early afternoon. The dry line is expected to set up somewhere in eastern New Mexico. I don’t think the likelihood we get clipped by a storm is very high, but if we see any rain, it will come between Fort Sumner and the eastern extent of the Albuquerque metro. I said no rain in the Albuquerque forecast earlier, and I’m standing by that!

Albuquerque, New Mexico

Killeen, Texas

We are off, well, not too far from where we had our last forecast. The weather is getting warm, and remaining interesting in Texas, so let’s what that means in Killeen.

At 933AM, CT, Killeen was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 70 degrees. Rain has finally shifted out of the area this morning, though the back end of an area of rain extended from Palestine to Austin, and was rotating away from the region. There were flood advisories just to the north, including Waco after another round of heavy rain. Fortunately, this complex of storms is being ushered along by a cool front that is being trailed by dry, stable air.
After the rain shower activity dissipates through the early afternoon in east Texas, a nose of high pressure will build in through the Lone Star State. Moisture will be squashed towards the Gulf Coast, and Thursday looks like it may even be tolerable. Low pressure will quickly reemerge in the Colorado Rockies, however, with moisture reentering the picture from the Gulf. Another humid day will be on the way.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy and more humid, high 95, low 72

TWC: Tomorrow РMainly sunny.  High 97, Low 71
Friday РSunny. High 98, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and humid High 93, Low 74
Friday – Very warm with sunshine and some clouds High 95, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 95, Low 73
Friday – Sunny, High 95, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 77
Friday – Sunny, High 96, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 73
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 72

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 73
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 95, Low 74

The Weather Channel is really buying into a scorching end to the week. Let’s see if they are a bit on the aggressive side. Here is he radar imagery of rain moving on out of town.

Rain from the desert

Early last week, an area of low pressure developed in the 4 Corners and shifted into Texas, chasing the system that eventually led to the devastating tornadoes in Tennessee. The chasing system was a rainmaker, though, bringing more than an inch of rain to Killeen on Wednesday, which was probably unwelcome, but at least it was well predicted by a series of good forecasts. The best belonged to none other than Victoria-Weather, who are undefeated now in March.
Actuals: Tuesday – Trace of precipitation High 72, Low 62
Wednesday – 1.23 inches of rain, High 64, Low 49

Grade: A-C

Killeen, Texas to Greensboro, North Carolina

The southern US has been trounced by severe weather lately, from the devastating tornadoes in Nashville and Cookeville, Tennessee, to persistent thunderstorms nearer the Gulf Coast. There is a break in the action, finally, across the region but will it last for our 2 day, 1219 mile route. Will these storms return, or will we be able to manage a steady pace (estimated at 66mph, with a goal of 529 miles in day one)?

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Killeen, TX

A split jet stream over the eastern US is coming together off shore in the Gulf Stream, meaning any and all concerning weather is going to be off shore this weekend. The primary concern between Killeen and Brandon, Mississippi, our destination for the night, will be ensuring that we remember our sunglasses and sunscreen in case we want to sit outside for dinner east of Jackson.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
Brandon, Mississippi, is the home of the WFO for Jackson, and in my opinion is one of the best offices in the country. Too bad the weather is going to be so pleasant while we’re there. High pressure will only consolidate over the southeast, and the drive from Brandon to Greensboro will continue to be pleasant, though in the wake of the strong system now off shore, it might be a little cooler in Greensboro than anywhere else along our drive.

Greensboro, North Carolina

Killeen, Texas

We’re just following election states around, I guess. Well, this time, we are off to Texas, which votes tomorrow as part of Super Tuesday. I’m sure that regardless of who they support, Texans are all going to vote for good weather.

At 958PM, CT, Killeen was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with fair skies. There was some light rain in the area, south of Killeen. It’s not particularly heavy, and most of it is certainly not reaching the ground, however there were a few drips being reported in Junction and Marble Falls. That ground truth means it would be imprudent to take rain out of the overnight forecast in Killeen.
A complicated system in the eastern US is born of a jet with a split tail, merging over Indiana, with a weak cold front sweeping through Texas. The southern end of the front is troughing dramatically in the Desert Southwest, and as it translates to the east, cyclogenesis will be swift. The feature will move into Texas by tomorrow evening, with an active warm front arriving in town late in the evening. The low itself will arrive in the early morning on Wednesday, with heavy rain and some embedded thunderstorms starting around sunrise and lasting at least through the early afternoon, with light to moderate rain coming on the back end of the system and lasting through the afternoon and evening.
Tomorrow – Clouds and light rain arriving late, High 76, Low 62
Wednesday – Rain and thunderstorms through the day, High 64, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 76, Low 61
Wednesday – Rain likely. Potential for heavy rainfall. High 62, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and not as warm with a brief shower or two High 70, Low 59
Wednesday – Cooler; heavy rain and a thunderstorm in the morning, then a little rain; watch for flash flooding High 59, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. High 72, Low 59
Wednesday – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm High 60, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 75, Low 60
Wednesday, – Showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Then a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 64, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 72, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy iwth showers, High 60, Low 55

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 76, Low 61
Wednesday – Rain until evening.High 65, Low 49

If I had a vote, I would vote both against Weatherbug and my blogging software, because goodness, if they weren’t fickle tonight. Here is the radar, with that drizzle moving through central Texas.