Double Duque’s

Does that title make you think of Dubuque? it did in my head, but I’m not sure about it now, seeing it on paper. Anyways, this is in reference to the fact that we had two forecasts in Dubuque last week. Anthony made a forecast on the 18th, and I followed up on the 21st. There was no overlap in forecast period, and I can say that we both defeated 2 of our rival outlets. The difference was that Anthony tied all of the other ones, and The Weather Channel throttled the rest of us on the 21st. So congrats everyone, you pretty much all won (except Weatherbug and Forecast.io) on the 18th, but The Weather Channel really stood out on the 21st.
Actuals: Wednesday, Trace of rain, High 75, Low 57
Thursday, High 78, Low 67
Saturday – .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 57
Sunday – .32 inches of rain, High 78, Low 67

Grade: B-C (18th) A-C (21st)

Dubuque, Iowa

Yes! We are forecasting for the same city in Iowa twice in a week. Anthony and I are operating on slightly different calendars, and there was overlap this week. Which of us does Dubuque best?

At 853AM, CT, Dubuque was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 63 degrees. Winds from the east were picking up, feeding into a line of very strong thunderstorms that were barreling down I-80, passing through Marshalltown on their way to Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. The heaviest activity will remain south of Dubuque, but Dubuque won’t be completely unscathed when all is said and done.
The line of storms is a true derecho, following a stationary front that runs south of Dubuque towards Missouri and into Kentucky and Tennessee. The northwestern part of the boundary is poised to lift further north as an area of low pressure moves through Iowa, reinvigorating the chance for showers and storms later this evening. The low that lifts north is just a mild perturbation in a broader, progressively weakening system in the northern Plains. The weakening of this parent low means that clearing will be slow to come to Deubuque, and this weekend will be plagued by chances of rain throughout the weekend as the system occludes over eastern Iowa. There may be a stray thunderstorm embedded within showers.
Tomorrow- Overcast with rain and some thunderstorms, High 74, Low 56
Sunday – Rain, heavier and with embedded storms late, High 77, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day High 78, Low 57
Sunday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 80, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, humid; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 76, low 58
Sunday – Remaining cloudy, thunderstorms, strong late; humid High 80, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 74, Low 58
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likey, High 77, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 81, low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 72, Low 61
Sunday – Possible light rain throughout the day. High 80, Low 69

I’m a little cooler than most, especially on Sunday, but my logic is this: Rainy, cloudy days rarely happen when it’s 80 out. Here is the radar, with a line of storms screaming through southern Iowa.

Dubuque, Iowa

As we close in on the official start of Summer later this week, let’s take a look at how the Upper Midwest will fare over the next couple of days.

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at Dubuque, IA was 68 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A weak boundary continues to linger from Michigan through IA back into the Central Plains. It’s the focus of scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity and looks to remain so for tomorrow. There’s a chance of scattered shower activity during the daytime hours as it shifts away from the Dubuque area, while thunderstorm activity should remain off to the south. Thursday should be on the dry side as the aforementioned boundary shifts away and in advance of another low pressure system shifting into the Dakotas. There might be some shower activity on Friday, but not Thursday!

Wednesday: Scattered showers possible. High 71, Low 61.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and warmer. High 75, Low 56.

TWC: Wednesday: Morning showers. High 75, Low 63.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 77, Low 56.

AW: Wednesday: Cloudy, a touch of rain. High 72, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy; comfortable. High 75, Low 56.

NWS: Wednesday: Chance of showers. High 74, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 76, Low 57.

WB: Wednesday: Chance of storms. High 71, Low 63.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 57.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 74, Low 62.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 76, Low 57.

FIO: Wednesday: Light rain until afternoon. High 73, Low 64.
Thursday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 59.

There’s some light rain shower activity off to the west. We’ll see another day of this smattering of activity before things clear out.