We have taken a bit of a hiatus this past week thanks to illness sweeping through the family, but we are back! Speaking of unwanted things sweeping through an area, let’s talk about Dubuque last week. Monday and Tuesday were hot days, and correctly forecast as such, but then, an interesting thing happened on Tuesday. Some outlets had thunderstorms on Tuesday, and some did not. The storms indeed showed up, but those stormy forecasters thought they would be fueled by hotter temperatures, which was not the case. Generally speaking, the best temperature forecasts belonged to those that kept Dubuque dry, but Weatherbug surpassed other outlets by having the best temperature forecast of outlets that forecast rain. It’s fitting that Weatherbug will claim victory, as the storms they successfully forecast for actually produced some severe weather in Eastern Iowa, and 55mph wind gusts in Dubuque. Actuals: Monday, June 20 – High 91, Low 61 Tuesday – .1 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 95, Low 70
We’re off on… what’s this, a single day road trip? Well, this journey will take the better part of the day, covering 469 miles of pure Midwest. The pace in the end will be 62.3mph, slowed, as you might expect, by the city of Chicago.
Man, it is hot in the Upper Midwest, and some of that heat is going to spread eastward. And don’t even get me started on the humidity. Air conditioners will be needed, particularly after we get away from the westerly flow off of Lake Michigan. Chicago westward through Illinois and into Deubuque will be blazing hot. The moisture is currently penned west of the Mississippi and north into Wisconsin, and there isn’t really a great reason to expect it to get unleashed terribly far from where it is right now. It will probably bleed south and east a bit, precariously close to our route, but all that will mean is an even more uncomfortable walk to the rest rooms at pit stops. Dubuque is going to be extremely sweaty tomorrow afternoon.
Happy Father’s Day all you dads out there. This forecast is dedicated specifically to the dad’s of Dubuque.
At 953AM, CT, Dubuque was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure in the northern High Plains was producing brisk southerly winds across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures were on the rise in western Iowa, though Dubuque was still relatively comfortable. High pressure over the Great Lakes is strong enough that the low pressure in the Plains is going to be redirected to the north quite efficiently. While Dubuque is not expected to get as warm as locations to the west and north, but it will still be very hot in Dubuque to start the week. Part of this will be the southerly flow today, but also, the sunny skies through the beginning of the week. A weak cold front will arrive late on Tuesday that will signal a slight cool down, but isn’t expected to carry much precipitation with it. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 63 Tuesday – Sunny, increasing clouds High 95, Low 71
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 95, Low 65 Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 97, Low 73
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and hot; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 94, Low 66 Tuesday – The temperature near the record of 100 and humid; a t-storm around in the p.m.; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds High 98, Low 74
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 65 Tuesday – Sunny and hot High 96, Low 73
WB: Tomorrow – Breezy sunny, High 91, Low 65 Tuesday – Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 94, Low 73
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 65 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 68
FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 91, Low 64 Tuesday – Humid throughout the day. High 95, Low 73
IT’s like there are two Dubuques we are forecasting for, and neither of them are really following model guidance closely. Today and tomorrow are going to be hot and sunny.
When we put together our forecast for Dubuque, they were at the tail end of their extended inhabitance of a February cold spell for the record books. Wednesday dipped down all the way to -13, but the Thursday low was a relatively mild 2 above, a difference of 15 degrees. Not bad! The biggest issue with the forecast was a tendril of light snow that moved through the Mississippi Valley. It came about 12 hours later than expected, which meant that everyone missed on the precipitation forecast, even the select few who actually through it might snow. Victoria-Weather was better than the rest on temperatures, and won the forecast with ease. Actuals: Wednesday – High 12, Low -13 Thursday- Trace of precipitation, High 18, Low 2
We’re headed to the northern US tonight to see what catastrophe is happing up there. Catastrophes everywhere.
At 1153PM, ET, Dubuque was reporting clear skies and a temperature of -8. Dubuque was smack dab within the upper level trough responsible for the wild weather in the south, and the cold weather in the Plains. A feature tolling along the base of the trough is going to trigger change across the nation. An inverted rough will be directed to the north from the advancing low in the Lower Mississippi Valley, and will pass over eastern Iowa through the day Wednesday. There won’t be a lot of moisture available to this disturbance, but with temperatures as cold as they are, big, dendritic flurries are more than possible. As the feature propagates, it will elongate, and circulation will become distorted. With less northerly flow, Thursday looks to be the first day of a true warming trajectory. Tomorrow – Flurries, High 12, Low -10 Thursday – Warmer and partly cloudy, High 17, Low 2
TWC: Tomorrow- Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon High 17, Low -9 Thursday – Partly cloudy skies. High 22, Low 1
AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then turning cloudy and cold; a little snow this afternoon with little or no accumulation High 15, Low -5 Thursday – Cold with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 21, Low 2
NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am High 14, Low -12 Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 21, Low 3
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A 40 percent chance of light snow in the afternoon, High 13, Low -6 Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 18, Low 2
WN: Mostly cloudy, High 14, Low -12 Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 21, Low 3
FIO: Tomorrow -Overcast throughout the day. High 17, Low -11 Thursday – Foggy until morning, starting again in the evening. High 23, Low 4
Clear night in Dubuque. Brr. But at least good news is on the way.
Does that title make you think of Dubuque? it did in my head, but I’m not sure about it now, seeing it on paper. Anyways, this is in reference to the fact that we had two forecasts in Dubuque last week. Anthony made a forecast on the 18th, and I followed up on the 21st. There was no overlap in forecast period, and I can say that we both defeated 2 of our rival outlets. The difference was that Anthony tied all of the other ones, and The Weather Channel throttled the rest of us on the 21st. So congrats everyone, you pretty much all won (except Weatherbug and Forecast.io) on the 18th, but The Weather Channel really stood out on the 21st. Actuals: Wednesday, Trace of rain, High 75, Low 57 Thursday, High 78, Low 67 Saturday – .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 57 Sunday – .32 inches of rain, High 78, Low 67
One day. One long day, and four states, those are the stats on this Midwestern trek. It will take a little over 9 hours, albeit those will be traffic slogged in Chicago, to cover 608 mles. How bad will traffic be? Google suggests an alternate route through Indianapolis that is less than an hour longer, but covers 72 more miles. The pace of our route is 66.4mph, which doesn’t seem daunting, but it does seem optimistic.
Low pressure in the Great Lakes is bringing some northerly flow to the Northern Plains and cycling in batches of rain and isolated thunderstorms to most of our route. The low is shifting north and a little east, however, and by tomorrow, the Ohio and Indiana portions of our journey will be in the clear. A second volley of wet weather will cycle into the region late in the day tomorrow, and while most of the activity will be heavy clouds in northern Illinois, we should expect some rain in spits and starts between Chicago and the Quad Cities, with thinner clouds bout those same spots of rain between Davenport and Dubuque. Not much, but it will be there, probably when you are bringing luggage to your hotel.
Yes! We are forecasting for the same city in Iowa twice in a week. Anthony and I are operating on slightly different calendars, and there was overlap this week. Which of us does Dubuque best?
At 853AM, CT, Dubuque was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 63 degrees. Winds from the east were picking up, feeding into a line of very strong thunderstorms that were barreling down I-80, passing through Marshalltown on their way to Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. The heaviest activity will remain south of Dubuque, but Dubuque won’t be completely unscathed when all is said and done. The line of storms is a true derecho, following a stationary front that runs south of Dubuque towards Missouri and into Kentucky and Tennessee. The northwestern part of the boundary is poised to lift further north as an area of low pressure moves through Iowa, reinvigorating the chance for showers and storms later this evening. The low that lifts north is just a mild perturbation in a broader, progressively weakening system in the northern Plains. The weakening of this parent low means that clearing will be slow to come to Deubuque, and this weekend will be plagued by chances of rain throughout the weekend as the system occludes over eastern Iowa. There may be a stray thunderstorm embedded within showers. Tomorrow- Overcast with rain and some thunderstorms, High 74, Low 56 Sunday – Rain, heavier and with embedded storms late, High 77, Low 64
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day High 78, Low 57 Sunday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 80, Low 67
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, humid; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 76, low 58 Sunday – Remaining cloudy, thunderstorms, strong late; humid High 80, Low 68
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 60 Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 68
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 74, Low 58 Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likey, High 77, Low 68
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 78, Low 60 Sunday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 81, low 68
FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 72, Low 61 Sunday – Possible light rain throughout the day. High 80, Low 69
I’m a little cooler than most, especially on Sunday, but my logic is this: Rainy, cloudy days rarely happen when it’s 80 out. Here is the radar, with a line of storms screaming through southern Iowa.
As we close in on the official start of Summer later this week, let’s take a look at how the Upper Midwest will fare over the next couple of days.
At 953pm CDT, the temperature at Dubuque, IA was 68 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A weak boundary continues to linger from Michigan through IA back into the Central Plains. It’s the focus of scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity and looks to remain so for tomorrow. There’s a chance of scattered shower activity during the daytime hours as it shifts away from the Dubuque area, while thunderstorm activity should remain off to the south. Thursday should be on the dry side as the aforementioned boundary shifts away and in advance of another low pressure system shifting into the Dakotas. There might be some shower activity on Friday, but not Thursday!
Wednesday: Scattered showers possible. High 71, Low 61.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and warmer. High 75, Low 56.
TWC: Wednesday: Morning showers. High 75, Low 63.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 77, Low 56.
AW: Wednesday: Cloudy, a touch of rain. High 72, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy; comfortable. High 75, Low 56.
NWS: Wednesday: Chance of showers. High 74, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 76, Low 57.
WB: Wednesday: Chance of storms. High 71, Low 63.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 57.
WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 74, Low 62.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 76, Low 57.
FIO: Wednesday: Light rain until afternoon. High 73, Low 64.
Thursday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 59.
There’s some light rain shower activity off to the west. We’ll see another day of this smattering of activity before things clear out.