When Fronts Slow Down
Posted by Anthony
Everybody had a forecast high of 41 or lower for Monday at Springfield. Sadly, the cold front didn't make it through until about 4am Monday morning, when temperatures had topped out at 50 just after midnight before crashing into the mid 30s by mid-morning, then never recovered. NWS took home the top spot on the strength of their accuarate low temperature forecasts.
Sunday: 0.05" of rain. High 50, Low 25.
Monday: 0.06" of rain. High 50, Low 33.
Forecast Grade: C
Springfield, Illinois
Posted by Ryan
Off to the farmland outpost and capital of Illinois for today's forecast. I just passed through Springfield for the first time ever a couple weeks ago. It was very nice.
At 1251PM, CT, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 30 degrees with a fairly steady east wind. There was a hole within a broad swath of overcast over the Midwest, and Springfield was enjoying some sunshine and warmer temperatures compared to sites even just to the west near the Mississippi River.
Sharp upper level troughing through the Rockies is leading to an intense amplification of a lee side trough along the Front Range. This is indicative of the system preparing to emerge from the highlands into the Mid Mississippi valley. The first impact for Springfield will be a warm up, thanks to southerly flow, and a few clouds. The heaviest rain and thunderstorm activity will develop over and just east of Springfield on Monday morning, followed by a cool, northwesterly wind. Don't be surprised if there are a few spots of drizzle Sunday evening before the real show starts on Monday.
Tomorrow - Increasing clouds, warm with some light rain late. High 44, Low 24
Monday - Some rain early, then clearing and colder, High 40, Low 31
TWC: Tomorrow - Cloudy skies with a few showers later in the day High 43, Low 24
Monday - Considerably cloudy (rain/snow before sunrise) High 38, Low 34
AW: Tomorrow - Breezy and milder with some sun, then increasing clouds, evening shower, High 45, Low 28
Monday - Breezy with partial sunshine High 40, Low 27
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of rain after noon. Mostly cloudy High 47, Low 25
Monday - Partly sunny, (showers before sunrise) High 41, Low 32
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of rain in the afternoon. High 47, Low 25
Monday - Partly sunny (predawn rain/snow) High 41, Low 34
We are in a very active pattern right now, and as Springfield's forecast indicates, the weather will be changing quickly from day to day. Satellite shows the Illinois capital in a clear window.
Turning off the switch
Posted by Ryan
At the time of our forecast, the temperature in Springfield was a sweltering 91 degrees. Strong thunderstorms were on the way, and they certainly knocked the temperature down a degree or two. Friday, the temperature was only 80, and Saturday, after clouds and rain rolled in, the temperature was cooler still, only 68. The Weather Service and Weatherbug split the forecast as the switch for summer seems to have been turned off.
Actuals: Friday - High 80, Low 62
Saturday - .61 inches of rain High 68, Low 55
Grade: C
Harrisonburg, Virginia to Springfield, Massachusetts
Posted by Ryan
Hey! It's a trip that doesn't take us across the country and last 4 1/2 days. In fact, we're only going to take one day to cover the 500 miles betwixt the cities in question, which puts us at a clip of 57.6 miles an hour. Let's head off to Springfield, and hope that the clean up effort is going as well as possible.
The cold front bringing strong thunderstorms to New England at this very moment will be in the Atlantic by the time we get ready to leave Harrisonburg in the morning. The tail of the front, however, will hook back west into the Chesapeake. We should be through the area that will see showers or storms by the time day time heating fires the convection up, but if we get bogged down and aren't past Harrisburg by 1pm, we might be in for an isolated rumble of thunder. The rest of our trip should be dry from that point forward, and we will enjoy a very pleasant arrival in Springfield.
Springfield, Massachusetts
Posted by Ryan
We are heading to Springfield, Massachusetts today, which, of course, was struck by an EF-3 tornado couple of weeks ago. Today looks like another rough weather day for New England. Will it get bad in Springfield?
At 253PM, ET, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with clear skies. There was a strong line of thunderstorms that stretched from Lebanon, New Hampshire to Binghamton New York that had a history of producing strong straight line winds and large hail. Springfield was under a severe thunderstorm watch for the remainder of the evening, and a moderate risk for severe weather.
The line of thunderstorms is so strong thanks to the strength of the front. Temperatures behind the front as nearby as Rochester are in the 70s, and deeper in the ridge, temperatures aren't climbing out of the 60s. This cool, crisp air will take over by tomorrow, and Springfield will move into a quieter pattern for a day or so. A shortwave will move along the Appalachians towards the Mid-Atlantic, and more stratiform rain is likely in the future for Springfield late on Saturday.
Tomorrow - Clear and cool.High 84, Low 63
Saturday - Increasing clouds with rain late, High 65, Low 58
TWC: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon High 83, Low 68
Saturday - Showers possible High 68, Low 60
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny, cooler and less humid High 79, Low 65
Saturday - Variable clouds High 72, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny (storms thru 1AM) High 82, Low 64
Saturday - A chance of showers. Cloudy High 68, Low 58
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny (early AM rain) High 80, Low 65
Saturday - Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers High 67, Low 58
That line of thunderstorms is looming, stay close to the television in Springfield!
Springfield, Massachusetts to Vineland, New Jersey
Posted by Anthony
A fairly short trip we have in store for us today, 271 miles of roadway including the fine cities of New York and Philadelphia. However, it won't be sunshine and rainbows for our little trip.
A large cut-off low pressure system is continuing to camp out over the Carolinas and Virginia, and with a large blocking pattern in place, isn't going anywhere soon. Constant southeast flow sitting north of a stationary front off the New England coast. Low clouds, fog, and persistent rain showers will rule the day for pretty much the entire trip through western Connecticut, past New York City, and through the heart of New Jersey. Skies and fog could lighten up some in the early afternoon as we get closer to our destination, but could be countered with bouts of heavier rain and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms traversing the region. All told, a day better off stuck in a car than trying to watch a kids' soccer game.
Wet but Warmer
Posted by Anthony
A strong cold front made its' way through New England yesterday, dropping some heavier rains on Springfield, MA as it slowly lurched through the area. Nearly an inch of rain fell on the city yesterday as the heavier stuff moved through in the afternoon hours. Low temperatures stayed relatively warm both days, however, which helped propel TWC to the top forecast.
Tuesday: Trace of precip in drizzle. High 77, Low 60.
Wednesday: 0.92" in heavy rains. High 72, Low 60.
Forecast Grade: C
Springfield, Massachusetts
Posted by Ryan
Massachusetts. I just wanted to write that one more time, because I have had a tough time spelling that in the past. Are you excited for a New England forecast? I sure am. Spent a lot of time in the southern US lately.
At 355PM, ET, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with clear skies and haze. This was all somewhat misleading, however, as an upper air system moving through the eastern US was triggering a band of rain showers from central Vermont southwest through New York, all while generating severe weather in the Carolinas.
A system is going to bomb out into the Plains over the next 12 hours and absorb the upper level trough in the East. After it starts to rain in Springfield tonight, the town won't ever really clear out tomorrow. Tuesday will be mostly dreary with some shower activity leftover from the upper low, but a seasonably strong cold front will arrive on Wednesday morning. The system is dynamic enough that there is a chance for some early morning, late season thunderstorms. Heavy, flooding rain will be a possibility through the day on Wednesday.
Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with some passing showers, High 69, Low 53
Wednesday - All day rain with some embedded thunderstorms, High 69, Low 51 (non standard)
TWC: Tomorrow - Cloudy skies. High 72, Low 60
Wednesday - Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms High 72, Low 62
AW: Tomorrow - Some sun with a shower, warm; fog in the morning High 71, Low 53
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy and warm with a couple of showers High 70, Low 52
NWS: Tomorrow- A slight chance of showers before 9am. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny High 69, Low 57
Wednesday - Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog between 8am and 11am High 71, Low 55
WB: Tomorrow - Cloudy with showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the morning then partly sunny in the afternoon, High 70, Low 55
Wednesday - Showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the morning then showers likely in the afternoon, High 72, Low 59
This is going to be a nasty system, no doubt, but it will be at it's nastiest over the Great Lakes, fortunately for those in Springfield. Here is the rain in the area already ongoing.
Nary a cloud
Posted by Ryan
For the most part, Springfield reported clear skies in all of their observations. Sure, there were a couple instances of a passing cloud, but nothing that detracted from the beautiful weather central Illinois saw to end the month of September. V-W had the top forecast, making things all the more beautiful.
Actuals: Wednesday - High 79, Low 48
Thursday - High 78, Low 54
Grade: A
Springfield, Illinois to Santa Cruz, California
Posted by Ryan
Why is it most of the road trips I write involve California? I know I lived there for 5 years, and twice as long as that in Illinois actually, but still. Oh well, with nice weather covering the western 2/3 of the country the beautiful weather here in the Twin Cities always makes us feel like we're enjoying a piece of what CA gets nearly year round. Today's trip will cover 4 days and 2,102 miles. Off we go!
DAY ONE
The tail end of a cold front will pass north of Springfield during the early morning hours, so outside of a few clouds perhaps, it should be a dry start to the day as we head west out of Central IL. Two words are going to be very popular during this road trip.... High Pressure. A large dome of it is shifting into the Central Plains, making for mostly sunny skies and dry weather as we travel though Northern Missouri to Lincoln, NE, and further westward to Grand Island, our stop for the 1st night.
DAY TWO
Well, nothing much to speak of today, weather-wise that is. The dome of high pressure continues to assert itself over the Central US, so nothing but pleasant conditions will be experienced for the trip west into Wyoming where we went the day at Rawlins. Unless of course, you forgot your sunglasses in Grand Island. Then all that squinting might get annoying.
DAY THREE
More sun, different day. As we delve further into the weekend, our old high pressure continue to squish any chances of precip along our route. Some afternoon thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, but most of that activity will be isolated and well south of our route through Salt Lake City westward into NV where we end our day in Elko.
DAY FOUR
The coast is in our sights! The large ridge of high pressure that caused the Southwest to absolutely roast earlier this week (including an all-time record high in Los Angeles at 113 degrees) continues to control the Western US. What does that mean for the final day of our road trip? Severe thunderstorms! Massive tornadoes! Nah, nothing like that. Just make sure the car's AC is working well as we make our way through the Sierra Nevada and into CA's Central Valley by rolling through Sacramento towards San Francisco, and finally into Santa Cruz. Surfs up!
