Tag Archives: Springfield

Savoring the sunlight

Forecasts for this weekend were fairly depressing across the country, painting about 50% of the country in rain and thunderstorms. It didn’t turn out to be that bleak, particularly in Springfield, where there was only a tenth of an inch of rain on Friday, and none on Saturday. Temperatures were able to climb into the mid-80s, unencumbered by overcast or persistent rain showers. Some people were fairly optimistic, and as a result contributed the most accurate forecasts. The big winner in this case was Accuweather, who only missed by a degree, cumulatively over their 4 verifying times. Actuals: Friday .10″ of rain, High 83, Low 61
Saturday – High 82, Low 66

Grade: A-C

Springfield, Illinois to Lafayette, Indiana

Whenever we do a short trip, it always seems to be through Indiana, for some reason. This trek will only last 3 hours and cover 178 miles. The drive will be at a pace of 61.2mph, thanks to some lower roads in western Indiana. I guess we should probably get going.

springfieldil
A head of a broad area of low pressure across the High Plains, moisture will be pumping north into the Mississippi Valley. A vorticity maximum will be the focal point for heavier rain and thunderstorms, and will be centered around Cape Girardieau, Missouri. This will keep rain fairly light around Springfield, and perhaps we will even see some dry conditions through Champaign. The rest of the stretch will likely be pretty drizzly, however, with light rain continuing from the home of the University of Illinois to the home of their contemporary, Purdue University in Lafayette (well, Purdue is in West Lafayette, but you get the point).
lafayette

Springfield, Illinois

Hey, y’all, it’s time for a forecast. We’re going to hit the plains of Illinois on this fine Thursday afternoon.

At 252PM, CT, Springfield was reporting light rain and a temperature of 66 degrees. A swath of rain was parked from the Upper Midwest south to Missouri, orphaned by a dissipating jet and weak wave moving through the Canadian Lake Country. The rain will continue to dissipate as it moves easy, but a hard charging system moving out of the Rockies will import more warm air and moisture.
This newfound southerly flow will mean the chance for thunderstorms will continue through tomorrow afternoon. On Saturday, the extent of the Mississippi and Ohio Valley will be awash in rain and a few embedded thunderstorms, as a stout southwesterly flow will continue to import moisture into an already destabilized atmosphere. Rain will be widespread, and will be able to wash over most of the region, including Springfield through the day.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, with a few thunderstorms, High 78, Low 66
Saturday – Rain, High 78, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, High 82, Low 61
Saturday – Thunderstormms, High 84, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm in the area, mainly early; warmer High 82, Low 61
Saturday – Variable cloudiness with a shower or thunderstorm around; warm High 82, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 81, Low 62
Saturday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. High 79, Low 63
Saturday – Thunderstorms likely. High 78, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 81, Low 63
Saturday – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 81, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the morning and afternoon.High 80, Low 63
Saturday – Light rain until evening. High 78, Low 67

Rain, rain, rain. We find ourselves with Weatherbug on this forecast. Let’s hope we are on to something. Rain is just now nosing into Springfield, and it won’t leave for a while.
Springfield

Disaster averted

Clear skies in Springfield led to lows that were much cooler than had been originally anticipated. Well, that is to say, cooler if you believed the majority of the forecasting community. Victoria Weather opted to forecast lows that were 5-8 degrees cooler than other outlets overnight on both Wednesday and Thursday morning. Overnight, clouds cleared out and despite some showers during the day, it was able to radiate and cool off rather nicely That gave us a massive lead over other outlets on temperatures. This paid off in the end as an upper level trough was a bit more active than we had thought it would be yesterday. Thunderstorms raged across Massachusetts through yesterday afternoon, clipping Springfield as well. There were a lot of severe reports, though most of it was in the Boston area. Only Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel forecast a dry day in Springfield, but V-W’s domination in the temperature department that we were still able to claim victory.
Actuals: Wednesday – Rain reported, not measured, High 82, Low 59
Thursday – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, Hgh 79, Low 50

Grade: C

Springfield, Massachusetts to Elmira, New York

We have another brief trip on the open road today, but today, we will be on the opposite end of the country from our last trek. It’s also about half the distance between Springfield as it is from Bakersfield to Flagstaff, as we will take 4 hours to cover 278 miles at a pace of about 63.2mph. Shall we be on our way?


Springfield-Massachusetts
An upper level trough moving through the area (and that’s important… it’s been a long time since anything startd moving around there) will be the trigger for a few light showers in the Berkshires of western Massachussetts. As we pass south of Pittsfield, we might see a little bit of rain, and will almost certainly have a cloudy drive, but that will last only as far as te Hudson Gorge, and from Albany to Elmira, the sun will be shining, and we shouldn’t have a problem.
Elmira

Springfield, Massachusetts

Our forecast takes us to another Springfield, but this time, we are off to the one in Massachusetts.

At 1253PM, ET, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with sunny skies. Tropical Storm Bertha is moving through the northern Gulf Stream and won’t provide a threat to New England, however a weak trough aloft remains in place over the Great Lakes and may result in some showers tomorrow in Springfield.
As Bertha moves past the Cape and Islands tomorrow, a cold front will slide into the coast of New England. With Bertha redirecting flow offshore, it will be fairly inactive in southern New England, though showers are still possible and will be more likely in the mid-Atlantic. The upper level trough and Bertha will be out to sea and over the Canadian Maritimes by Thursday, and a return to pleasant weather is expected.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, High 81, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – PM T-StormsHigh 83, Low 65
Thursday – Mostly Sunny High 82, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 83, Low 62
Thursday – Sunny to partly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon High 80, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11am. High 81, Low 65
Thursday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 4pm and 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 60

WB: Tmorrow – Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms High 81, Low 64
Thursday – Partly sunny with a chance of showers. High 78, Low 60

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 81, Low 64
Thursday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 79, Low 61

You can see on Satellite that Bertha is hung up in a trough off the coast and is looking pretty ragged. springfield

Wrong two ways

Springfield promised to be a bit of a tricky forecast. Temperatures were going to warm up on Tuesday after a Canadian trough snuck off to the east, and they did, even warmer than any outlet had expected. A bit of rain was going to help keep temperatures in check on Wednesday, and they did, colder than anyone had expected. Nobody had properly foreseen this range of high temperatures, so nobody really nailed this forecast, but Weatherbug and WeatherNation came the closest.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 86, low 58
Wednesday – High 73, low 66

Grade: C

Springfield, Missouri

We made it back to Missouri! How fun.

At 652PM, CT, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with sunny skies. Upper level high pressure is in control across the Ozarks and even west through 4 Corners. At the same time, a surface cold front has swept through earlier today, and clouds are just now clearing, allowing temperatures to remain pleasantly cool.
At the upper levels, the pattern is long waved and will remain mostly stationary through the period. In the lower levels, however, a wave is prognosticated to move out of the southern Rockies, touching off some thunderstorms over the southern Plains by Wednesday morning. The surface low will be fueled by warm air and westerly winds, as well as a bit of lower level vorticity thanks to those winds, so its propagation will be slow as much of the forcing will remain closer to the mountains and sun baked High Plains. There is a chance that there will be some rain late in the evening on Wednesday as the low attempts to move away from its support and flattens out. Associated moisture will latch onto flow around a broader trough over the Great Lakes and be pulled eastward, but without the convective support found to the west, heavy thunderstorms shouldn’t be expected (though with the elevation of the region, heavy rain can’t be ruled out).
Tomorrow – Sunny and warmer High 83, Low 58
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy through most of the day, with rain later in the evening, High 80, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 82, Low 59
Wednesday – Showers High 76, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, pleasant and less humid High 80, Low 58
Wednesday – Cloudy in the morning, then clouds and sun in the afternoon with a shower or thunderstorm in spots High 75, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 81, Low 59
Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy High 76, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 58
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. High 79, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny high 81, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers High 75, Low 63

Everyone is looking for rain, and that 40% chance looks about right. I think there isn’t enough forcing to keep the city completely cloudy, so I am riding with a warmer temperature than anyone on Wednesday afternoon. Doesn’t look terribly cloudy right now.
springfield

Rain steers clear of the Show Me State

Two forecasts in a row in Missouri, both with a shot of rain according to some outlets, but two dry verifications. The anticipation for rain was more universal in Springfield, but it was just as dry there as it was in Columbia. WeatherNation was the only provider that had a dry forecast, but their temperature forecast was subpar. The differentiator was a combination of two things. Those who had a warm forecast on Friday afternoon and those who hedged cooler on Saturday morning ended up earning the top spots. The Weather Channel edged out Victoria WEather and the Weather Service to earn the victory.
Actuals: Friday – High 78, Low 60
Saturday – High 82, Low 57

Grade: B

Springfield, Missouri to Carson City, Nevada

Our trip is deceptively long on this occasion, covering 3 1/2 days and 1795 miles through the Rockies and Great Basin. Thanks to our use of the one interstate through much of the drive, we will have a pace of about 64.85mph, which will lead to a daily goal of 518.8 miles on Saturday through Monday, leaving a little chunk of Nevada for Tuesday. We have a lot of open country in our future, so we’d best be on our way.

DAY ONE (Saturday)
Springfieldmo
Many people don’t appreciate the featureless terrain of Kansas and Nebraska, but I for one am a big fan. The open road with the windows down and tunes blaring is one of the most pleasurable sensations in life. We will get to experience it in full on Saturday as warm temperatures and sunny skies will have infiltrated the Plains. The drive through western Missouri and Nebraska will be pretty easy, and will end in Overton, Nebraska, in the western part of the state

DAY TWO (Sunday)
There isn’t much going on synopticly for us to contend with from Overton west through Nebraska and in southern Wyoming. Monsoonal thunderstorms develop late in the afternoon, and shouldn’t cause too many problems until about 4pm. Even then, we may not see any storms, because they will be extremely isolated, and mostly will be south of I-80 anyways. Still west from Rawlins we might need the wipers. Our drive will be through in Point of Rocks, which is just east of Rock Springs.

DAY THREE (Monday)
High pressure over the Great Basin will do wonders for our travel route. Not only will we be driving through much of the route before daily convection kicks off, but the ridge will help stabilize the Great Basin and thunderstorms will be shunted north of Salt Lake City and northern Nevada. Good luck getting any radio stations in this part of the world though for that whole windows down tunes blaring thing. The day will end west of Winnemucca in the tiny oasis of Valmy.

DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
The end of the road will be pretty uneventful. No, really, until you get to Reno, there isn’t much going on in Nevada. Our arrival in Carson City will be to sunny skies and elevation cooled air.
Carson City