Going the Wrong Way

With a feature moving through New England, it seemed fairly logical that temperatures would tumble in Springfield. It seemed even more likely that the rainier day, Monday, would be cooler than the drier day. As it happened, neither of these things were true, as the cloudier, rainier day ended up several degrees warmer than the drier Sunday. The National Weather Service correctly navigated the less than intuitive forecast for a victory.
Actuals: Sunday – .02 inches of rain, High 64, low 51
Monday – .46 inches of rain, High 68, Low 49

Grade: B-C

Springfield, Massachusetts

For it’s small size, the state of Massachusetts is a compelling weather state. From the exposed Cape Cod to the mountains of the western Berkshires, there are a lot of different scenarios at work. It’s a difficult place to get a handle on for meteorologists, and not just because Massachusetts is hard to spell.

At 3:53PM, ET, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with overcast skies and a brisk south wind. Low pressure over western Pennsylvania was becoming quite occluded, with warm air surging up the east coast and pushing the occluded/cold front offshore. An inverted trough was brining general rain showers to the eastern Great Lakes, and would be drifting through New England through today.
The upper level trough will be overridden by a more laminar flow through eastern Canada. The surface low pressure is going to continue to weaken and lose momentum as it slides into New England. Still, a little bit of shower activity will sneak in tomorrow, and the system will revitalize over the ocean and increase the chance for rain and thunder through the day on Monday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, High 70, Low 54
Monday – Mor overcast with a better chance for rain, High 67, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High – 67, Low 54
Monday – A mix of clouds and sun in the morning followed by cloudy skies during the afternoon. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 68, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 67, Low 52
Monday – Periods of rain High 66, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 52
Monday – Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, High 65, Low 54
Monday – Showers likely, High 65, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with heavy showers, High 66, Low 55
Monday – Nostly cloudy with light showers likely High 66, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 68, Low 54
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 68, Low 48

Showers earlier today encircled the region, but looked ominous south of Long Island.