Dropping Off

Things sure can change in a week. We looked at Springfield, Massachusetts about this time last week, and it was ensconced in high pressure. This led to a pretty quiet forecast with a broad range of temperatures. Today, weather has rolled in, and many parts of New England and the Mid-Atlantic are seeing significant snowfall, and in some placed, seeing it for the first time in a while. The biggest hang up in the forecast was that dynamic change in temperatures, especially at night. Clouds never really played a factor, and the morning low on both Wednesday and Thursday fell below expectations. Clime had a good day, however, and was rewarded with the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 44, Low 19
Thursday – High 50, Low 22

Grade: C-D

Springfield, Massachusetts

I am sure this is something you all know out in New England, but I learned recently that Springfield is actually serviced by Hartford’s Bradley International Airport. They are so close!

At 1055AM, ET, Springfield was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 31. There is a steady north wind thanks to a vast gyre off the coast of New England, and some scattered clouds north of Massachusetts, but despite these factors working against the town, a pleasant February day is anticipated.
Surface high pressure will continue to remain in place for the next few days, but a jet ridge will start nosing into the area by the end of the week, with a warm front nosing in on Thursday, really bringing about a warming trend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 26
Thursday – Partly cloudy, a bit warmer, High 47, low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 44, Low 25
Thursday РPlentiful sunshine. High 47, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun High 46, Low 24
Thursday – Sunny and mild High 48, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow Sunny, High 43, Low 24
Thursday – Sunny, High 46, Low 25

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 28
Thursday – Sunny, High 45, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 24
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 46, low 25

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 25
Thursday – Sunny, High 50, Low 25

Wow, Clime is going for the gusto, boldly putting Springfield at 50. We’ll see how that goes.

Springfield, Illinois to Ogden, Utah

Every once in a while, I find myself surprised by the map, and today is one of those times. Ogden is nearly due west of Springfield, and will take a long two days to get to. The mileage is 1,304, and we will take care of 542 of those miles at about 67.7mph on Monday, with the real work coming on Tuesday. If you consider road tripping to be work, of course.

DAY ONE (Monday)

Springfield, Illinois

Did someone say “road trip weather”? No? That’s not something a normal person says? Well, in that case, I will say it. It’s good road trip weather in the middle of the country, and that will continue tomorrow, with high pressure and temperatures that aren’t too hot, aren’t too cold. We’ll navigate through Missouri and into Nebraska, making it past Lincoln to Shelton for our one overnight of the trip.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
It’s always nice when Day Two is a Tuesday, because it’s significantly less confusing. OK, maybe only for my simple brain. The rest of the drive through Nebraska is going to be serene, but a short waved trough moving through the Rockies will make things significantly more interesting. Rain in the low elevation and snow at higher spots will be seen from Cheyenne westward. We’ll start to emerge from the wet and snow from Rock Springs on westward, and sunshine will return by the time we hit Ogden. Or at least, it would if we arrived when the sun was still up.

Ogden, Utah

Time best spent outdoors

Summer can be brutally hot through the center of the country. 90s with humidity aren’t out of the question in Springfield in August, so anything less than that is a treat. Consider last weekend to be a treat, then. On the 14th, there was supposed to be a bit of rain, but it was unseen in Springfield, leaving only the completely tolerable temperatures that maxd out in the 80s. The lows were a little warm, especially the 71 on the 14th, but much more accommodating on the 15th. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel were optimistic enough to put together these relatively pleasant days in their forecast, and shared the forecast victory.
Actuals: August 14th, High 86, Low 71
August 15th, High 86, Low 64

Grade: B-C

Great Falls, Montana to Springfield, Missouri

I’m always interested in the more diagonal routes. They take us over terrain we don’t always get to see. Such is the case with this ride, which will take about 2 1/2 days through the Rockies and High Plains. We’ll cover 1457 miles at a pace of nearly 70mph. The drive will conclude at the end of the first two days after 555 miles of sincerely wide open terrain.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)

Great Falls Montana – By Montanabw – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=25249931

It’s extremely dry across so much of the country, and it has led to wildfires blanketing the country in smoke. Our route is affected by the smoke, even, with parts of US 212 closed because of the fires, requiring a trip through Wyoming on I-90. We’ll make it to Whitewood, South Dakota, in the Black Hills before the drive is over. A lobe of low pressure will swing into the Northern Rockies, and will bring rain to western Montana. We’ll stay dry in Whitewood, and throughout our drive.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
Low pressure is going to deepen quickly in the High Plains east of the Rocky Mountains, but through the day in South Dakota and south into Iowa, the feature will only function to drive hot humid air north. Brisk, hot winds are expected, but the low isn’t going to move anywhere, so precipitation is not anticipated.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
The Gulf will be opened by the aggressive southerly flow, and showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected to start bubbling northward. Showers with a few rumbles of thunder are possible from Kansas City south to Springfield

Springfield, Missouri

Springfield, Missouri

Springfield is just north of the Ozarks in southwest Missouri. It’s a surprisingly well populated region, with Springfield the largest town to speak of.

At 1052AM, CT, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. Dew points were in the mid 60s, which definitely led to some discomfort, and it will only get warmer through the day. There appeared to be a dry line south of town, as dew points and temperatures were significantly higher even in Oklahoma, not so far away. The boundary has led to a few scattered showers popping up in the region, but the heaviest rain was north of the aforementioned boundary.
The boundary responsible is eventually tied to a shortwave in the Great Lakes. High pressure is building over the north central US and will press south, limiting the flow of moisture into the Plains. Because the boundary is so removed from the parent low, which itself is only a weak shortwave, it won’t feel obliged to move any faster than the ridge sinks south. Clearing will finally come by Sunday with the Gulf effectively staunched. High pressure generally means cooler temperatures, as it will in Missouri for the middle of August. Well, relatively cool.
Tomorrow – Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 85, Low 69
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then cloudy skies late. High 84, Low 69
Sunday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny High 84, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – A thunderstorm in spots in the morning; otherwise, humid with times of clouds and sun Hih 81, Low 69
Sunday – Nice with times of clouds and sun High 82, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow -A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 69
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 81, Low 71
Sunday – Partly cloudy, slight chance of showers in the morning then slight cance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 82, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 84, Low 69
Sunday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 83, Low 65

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 67
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 82, Low 59

Radar with a few isolated showers rolling through the region Storms should remain non-severe, so that’s nice.

Springfield, Massachusetts

Only a fortnight left of shopping until Christmas! What will the weather be like in Springfield, MA as we head into the weekend to get those gifts?

At 1156pm EST, the temperature at Springfield, MA was 20 degrees under fair skies. High pressure is found over New England currently, but the next couple of days will see conditions deteriorate rapidly. An area of low pressure is developing in the Southeast and will scoot its way up the Eastern Seaboard throughout the day Friday. Rain showers will shift into the area by the evening hours, and increase in intensity overnight into Saturday as the low draws closer to the region. Some heavy rains are expected Saturday morning and should finally taper off some during the afternoon and early evening hours as the low shifts through New England. Winds are expected to pick up late Saturday as well, making for a rather miserable start to the weekend.

Friday: Increasing evening showers. High 40, Low 21.
Saturday: Heavy morning rains, becoming lighter in evening. High 52, Low 40.

TWC: Friday: Afternoon rain showers. High 39, Low 20.
Saturday: Rain. High 52, Low 37.

AW: Friday: A bit of afternoon rain. High 37, Low 21.
Saturday: Heavy rain tapering off. High 50, Low 35.

NWS: Friday: Mostly cloudy then chance of wintry mix. High 35, Low 20.
Saturday: Heavy rain, areas of fog. High 42, Low 35.

WB: Friday: Chance of rain showers. High 38, Low 20.
Saturday: Rain. High 53, Low 38.

WN: Friday: Cloudy with light showers likely. High 38, Low 20.
Saturday: Cloudy with light rain. High 50, Low 35.

FIO: Friday: Light rain starting in afternoon. High 43, Low 23.
Saturday: Rain until evening. High 56, Low 42.

Some high clouds are streaming over the area currently, but the system taking shape in the Southeast is what will bring our weekend rains.

Going the Wrong Way

With a feature moving through New England, it seemed fairly logical that temperatures would tumble in Springfield. It seemed even more likely that the rainier day, Monday, would be cooler than the drier day. As it happened, neither of these things were true, as the cloudier, rainier day ended up several degrees warmer than the drier Sunday. The National Weather Service correctly navigated the less than intuitive forecast for a victory.
Actuals: Sunday – .02 inches of rain, High 64, low 51
Monday – .46 inches of rain, High 68, Low 49

Grade: B-C

Springfield, Massachusetts

For it’s small size, the state of Massachusetts is a compelling weather state. From the exposed Cape Cod to the mountains of the western Berkshires, there are a lot of different scenarios at work. It’s a difficult place to get a handle on for meteorologists, and not just because Massachusetts is hard to spell.

At 3:53PM, ET, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with overcast skies and a brisk south wind. Low pressure over western Pennsylvania was becoming quite occluded, with warm air surging up the east coast and pushing the occluded/cold front offshore. An inverted trough was brining general rain showers to the eastern Great Lakes, and would be drifting through New England through today.
The upper level trough will be overridden by a more laminar flow through eastern Canada. The surface low pressure is going to continue to weaken and lose momentum as it slides into New England. Still, a little bit of shower activity will sneak in tomorrow, and the system will revitalize over the ocean and increase the chance for rain and thunder through the day on Monday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, High 70, Low 54
Monday – Mor overcast with a better chance for rain, High 67, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High – 67, Low 54
Monday – A mix of clouds and sun in the morning followed by cloudy skies during the afternoon. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 68, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 67, Low 52
Monday – Periods of rain High 66, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 52
Monday – Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, High 65, Low 54
Monday – Showers likely, High 65, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with heavy showers, High 66, Low 55
Monday – Nostly cloudy with light showers likely High 66, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 68, Low 54
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 68, Low 48

Showers earlier today encircled the region, but looked ominous south of Long Island.