Tag Archives: San Antonio

A boundary deep in the heart of Texas

During the forecast for San Antonio, we took a hard look at the system currently raging through the Tennessee Valley, bringing showers and thunderstorms to that part of the world. Would it dig south enough to bring any discernible change to the weather down that way? Well, yes. The boundary did bring more cloud. It brought a taste of rain. And the temperatures were a shade cooler on Monday than they were on Sunday. All of this played right into my hands. Victoria-Weather anticipated a bit cooler pattern, staying in the mid to 80s for highs, rather than going for the gusto like other outlets.
Actuals: Sunday – High 86, Low 62
Monday – Trace of rain, High 82, Low 67

Grade: C-D

San Antonio, Texas

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 88, Low 61
Monday – Mostly sunny. High 89, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and very warm; windy in the afternoon High 89, Low 61
Monday – Mostly sunny and remaining very warm High 88, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 88, Low 60
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Patchy fog in the morning, Hgh 84, Low 60
Monday – Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing, High 85, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 82
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until night.High 90, Low 62
Monday – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 93, Low 64

MOS statistics were warmer than the meteogram we looked at in the video, which is why the numbers are warmer than we mentioned. We’ll see how it goes!

A touch of rain

There wasn’t anything particularly organized in Texas over the last couple of days, or at least nothing that gave that impression. There was a jet pressing into the Gulf Coast, with the weakest of waves across Texas. It produced a faint bit of showers over Texas on Thursday and Friday, with deeper convection coming further south than San Antonio. Yes, it’s San Antonio we are here to discuss, by the way. There was only a trace of rain to finish off the week, but it fell on both days, throwing a few forecasts awry. The forecast temperatures weren’t staggeringly different across the board, which meant the static high temperature had about the same impact on any forecaster. WeatherNation ended up narrowly edging the rest of the field.
Actuals: Thursday – High 80, Low 64
Friday – High 80, Low 67

Grade: B-C

San Antonio, Texas to Rapid City, South Dakota

Another day, another road trip here at Victoria-Weather. This is a fun one if you like trips through the high plains. Something of a surprise to me, it will only be a 2 day drive, which will cover 1194 miles in total. The drive will cover ground at a relaxed pace at 63.4mph, which will net a total mileage of 507 miles on Wednesday, with a longer day on Friday. I like the Plains. Let’s see how the weather is.

DAY ONE (Thursday)
A weak area of low pressure is going to be developing overnight across Texas, but its greatest impact will be across the Gulf Coast. There will be a threat for an isolated shower or storm over central Texas and only a bit of light rain over the western portion of the state. Even then, that light rain won’t be great in coverage. The best threat for rain will be early in drive, from about San Antonio to Sweetwater, but there may be a more convective storm into Amarillo. Don’t count on it, though. Our day will end on the north side of Amarillo. not even out of Texas!

DAY TWO (Friday)
High pressure over the northern Plains will be sinking to the south, carrying some cold air with it. This means there will be a swath of mixed precipitation on our route. There may be some fog and drizzle through the rest of our drive through the Texas Panhandle, followed by a break in southeastern Colorado, but then from Kit Carson to the Nebraska border, and particularly around Akron, expect rain changing to snow. We’ll get north of this region of mixed precipitation and the Nebraska Panhandle and South Dakota Black Hills will be dry but mostly cloudy. Check out Mount Rushmore while in Rapid City!
Rapid City

Greenville, North Carolina to San Antonio, Texas

Another trek, this time a little longer than the one we went on yesterday. We’re going for 2 1/2 days, from eastern North Carolina to South Texas, covering about 1465 miles. Our pace will be quite brisk, at 68.3mph, which will lead to pretty expansive days, covering 546 miles, covering the rest of the drive on Friday. That’s a lot of driving! Let’s see what happens on these geographically vast adventures.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
There is a heretofore inactive cold front sliding east towards the Appalachians, and it will near our route as we head westward. We will generally stay to the south of the boundary, but there is a good chance we will see temperatures and dew points on the rise no matter where we go. Expect a few clouds across the LaGrange, Georgia area as we finish our day, but no significant weather concerns. Maybe traffic issues in Atlanta, but no weather issues.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
We’ll be off with no issues from LaGrange, and until we reach the Mobile area. After that point, we will be dodging thunderstorms for the rest of the way as we head west along the Coast. Some of the storms will be heavy, but the nature of the supporting atmospheric conditions suggests that none of the activity will be severe, but it will be very heavy at times. Southern Louisiana is very stormy and always catches these sea breeze storms the worst, so when we stop in Jennings, between Lafayette and Lake Charles, it may be in a downpour.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
A weak area of low pressure moving into southern Texas suggests that, unlike normal, our storm activity in the Gulf region will continue overnight. That means there will still be a few showers and storms as we get underway on Thursdat morning, and that activity will be possible all the way into San Antonio. The rain and thunder will be lighter than it was on Wednesday, but will nevertheless be a constant threat until we reach San Antonio.

San Antonio, Texas

San Antonio is a very nice town. I’ve never been, but I’ve never heard a bad word about it.

At 951PM, CT, San Antonio was reporting a temperature of 76 degrees with partly cloudy skies. The state of Texas was under a humid dome of high pressure, but they will remain dry in the most literal sense of the word, even if not atmospherically. A strong area of low pressure over the Northern Plains is producing a cold front that is faintly visible on satellite from southern Missouri to southern New Mexico.
A jet streak riding the Gulf coast will flare up with the advance of the presently weak boundary overnight tonight. As the boundary moves to the coast, it will detatch from the low over the Great Lakes and stall as a coastal trough enhanced by the jet. At the back edge of the jet, a trough will form over northern Mexico, shifting towards Texas. While Wednesday looks as though it will be in good shape, nascent low pressure across Texas will produce scattered showers and storms over the Lone Star State, as well as along the Gulf Coast on Thursday afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 82, Low 61
Thursday – Scattered showers and storms, especially later in the day, High 77, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed, High 83, Low 61
Thursday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then cloudy skies late, High 78, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and not as hot High 83, Low 61
Thursday – Clouds and breaks of sun with a shower or thunderstorm in the area in the afternoon High 80, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (PM storms), High 82, Low 60
Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (late storms), High 82, Low 60
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 77, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy (late storms) High 82, Low 61
Thursday – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 79, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 86, Low 63
Thursday – Overcast throughout the day. High 77, Low 65

When will these storms happen? Everyone seems to think that there will be storms, but nobody can settle on a time. Here is satellite, showing that weak but obvious boundary in the southern Plains.
San Antonio

Temperatures drop, but forecasts do not

What a pleasant pair of days for San Antonio. Sure, highs in the mid 80s aren’t terribly unusual, even at this time of year, but what makes the day a winner is the fact that the lows were merely in the 50s. That’s downright sleepable. The forecasts nailed the warm day time highs and the pleasant overnight lows pretty well, but Accuweather and WeatherNation tied on top of the leader board.
Actuals: Sunday – High 84, Low 59
Monday – High 85, Low 55

Grade: A-B

San Antonio Texas to Pensacola, Florida

It’s only one day from south Texas to the Florida Panhandle. San Antonio is about due west of Pensacola, but a little to the south. It’s an easier drive than it seems like it should be. Google tells us it will be a little shy of 10 ½ hours, covering 720 miles at about 69mph. That’s a hot pace. Let’s make our way through the Gulf Coast.

It says this drive will be 10 ½ hours at a pace of nearly 70mph, but with our passage right through the heart of Houston, after starting in the heart of San Antonio, I have to find that a little hard to believe. We won’t have any issues with the radar, though, as we will be passing through the southern edge of a very strong ridge of high pressure that’s been parked over the center of the country. Here might be a little bit of onshore flow through southern Louisiana, but at worst, that will bean some high clouds. Really, it will be a good day to drive through the southern United States.

San Antonio, Texas

San Antonio, Texas is our destination today. It is one of those large cities you need as a destination, because you probably won’t just be passing through. What does the forecast look like?

At 951PM, CT, San Antonio was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. At the base of a vast area of low pressure over the Plains, the clockwise circulation meant a breeze off the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for the clouds aloft this evening.
High pressure is going to pivot slightly to the east at its center over the next couple of days, but its southern tail will kick back into Texas. Pressure gradients will weaken, and so too will the wind. This should mean even more sunshine in deep southern part of Texas.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 84, low 59
Monday – Sunny, High 83, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 59
Monday – Sunny, High 87, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Warm with plenty of sunshine High 84, Low 57
Monday – Sunshine and patchy clouds High 85, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 59
Monday – Sunny, High 84, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 59
Monday – Sunny, HIgh 84, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 84, Low 59
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 84, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Dry and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 86, Low 58
Monday – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 86, Low 57

Pretty stable. Model guidance is towards the cooler end with the major models, trending warmer with the shorter run models, which explains the difference in forecast highs across the board.
San Antonio

In the clear

San Antonio seemed as though it was in line for some heavy convection, especially yesterday. Instead, the thunderstorms stayed to the north, and the only precipitation that they saw was due to Gulf moisture rolling over south Texas into the stronger storms around Dallas. This happened both Wednesday and Thursday, which is one of the two factors in determining the top forecast (Victoria-Weather was the only outlet that called for rain on Wednesday), with the other being the high heat that made its way into San Antonio. It reached 90 on both days, and only one outlet even had a mention of 90. That was WeatherNation, and they ended up taking down the top spot because their temperature forecast was excellent.
Actuals: Wednesday – Trace of rain, High 90, Low 72
Thursday – Trace of rain, High 91, Low 75

Grade: C