Tag Archives: Greensboro

Meteorologists remember how to forecast

The verifications throughout the month of February have been, to say the least, embarrassing. Finally, however, last weekend in Greensboro, we figured out what was going on. With a difficult forecast inbound, there was a game effort from all involved, wherein even the worst forecasts were better than the best from Lawton or Rockford. A warm front brought a splash of rain last Saturday, ahead of a cold front that swept through on Sunday. The only real surprise was that the rain was heavier with the warm front than it was the cold front, but the temperatures responded exactly as they were expected, especially by Forecast.io, who nailed the forecast, and Victoria-Weather and Accuweather, who were close behind.
Actuals: Saturday – .22 inches of rain, High 63, Low 45
Sunday – .05 inches of rain, High 69, Low 55

Grade: A-C

Greensboro, North Carolina

There is no shortage of large metro areas in the state of North Carolina. Tere isn’t a mega city like say, New York or Los Angeles, but the population of the Tar Heel State is deceptively high. Greensboro, for example, is the 3rd largest city in North Carolina, and has nearly 300k as a population. Did you realize that? That’s bigger than Buffalo, and would make it the biggest city in Alabama. I personally think that’s crazy. Ok, let’s tackle a forecast.

At 453PM,ET, Greensboro was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 54. The region, seeing a few clouds, was a bit coolr than points to the south and east, but a light south wind suggested that warm air was on it’s way, and the clouds weren’t the primary issue. A deep trough over the Great Lakes is dredging a lot of warm moist air from the Gulf and Gulf Stream, so while things may not be completely active at this moment, it seems like that will change.
Shower activity will inevitably lift through North Carolina overnight as a near surface perturbation starts tapping into moisture in the southeastern US closer to sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely in the Tennessee Valley, as a warm front continues to lift north through Greensboro. The moisture rich disturbance will quickly be folded into the broader cold front associated with the Great Lakes trough, but the heavy rain and thunderstorm activity will stall in the Appalachians. Instead, through most of the day on Sunday, a diffuse boundary will wade deeper into the state, and mean that things will be dreary and rain to end the weekend.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers, especially in the morning, High 62, Low 45
Sunday – Overcast with some showers throughout the day, High 68, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with periods of rain. High 57, Low 43
Sunday – Cloudy with rain in the morning…then scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 67, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Occasional rain and drizzle High 61, Low 44
Sunday – Cloudy and breezy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 69, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely before 11am, then showers likely after 11am. Cloudy, High 55, Low 43
Sunday – Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. High 68, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Rain likely in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon, High 58, Low 44
Sunday – Rain, High 67, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light rain likely, High 55, Low 44
Sunday – Cloudy with light rain, High 68, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning and evening. High 64, Low 46
Sundaty – Breezy until afternoon and rain starting overnight. High 69, low 64

What a refreshing change, seeing temperatures in the 60s! And the forecast is all rain, no snow! Spring is coming.  Here is the evening radar, showing some rain filtering into coastal Carolina.

Blue sky in Greensboro

There were definitely some clouds across the Carolinas the last couple of days, but there were some peeks of sun Greensboro, particularly yesterday. A chilly wind behind a departing system in the mid-Atlantic kept the city in the 40s, but with the sun, Greensboro saw temperatures climbed into the mid 50s. WeatherNation and The Weather Channel were very good, and tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Monday – High 48, Low 28
Tuesday – High 56, Low 27

Grade: A-C

Greensboro, North Carolina

We’re heading to North Carolina today. I’m actually going to be in Greensboro next month. It’s a little beyond this forecast, though.

At 954PM, ET, Greensboro was reporting a temperature of 36 degrees with fair skies. A light north wind trailed a cold front that has shifted off shore, and is producing a great deal of rainfall over the Gulf Stream. An upper level trough was rich with cold air, which was parked over the central Appalachians.
The trough bringing the sub-freezing temperatures to the region is going to take it’s time pivoting northeast towards New England. Expect chilly temperatures through the day tomorrow at least, with some warming coming on Tuesday as flow becomes more westerly. A jet streak along the northern Gulf Coast will prevent the temperatures from warming too much, but the sun will be out.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 47, Low 28
Tuesday – Sunny, a bit warmer, High 53, Low 29

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 47, Low 29
Tuesday – Sunny, High 55, Low 28

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, but chilly, High 45, Low 30
Tuesday – Warmer with plenty of sunshine High 52, Low 28

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 47, Low 30
Tuesday – Sunny, High 53, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 47, Low 30
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, High 53, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny High 48, Low 30
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, High 54, Low 27

FIO Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 48, Low 29
Tuesday – Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 55, Low 30

Pretty little variability in the forecast, so it will be a tight score when we verify. I went with a color added satellite, so you can see all the rain just off the North Carolina coast.
Greensboro

Here comes trouble

Greensboro hasn’t been the most significantly impacted by Joaquin’s satellite feature impacting the Carolinas, but his impact was quite evident nevertheless. As the rain moved in, temperatures didn’t reach 70 on Thursday, and couldn’t even climb out of the 50s on Friday. Not only did the clouds stifle temperatures, the rain came through was apace of what one would expect with a tropical feature. I can tell you the nearly an inch wasn’t as much as they saw on Saturday, either. And they still weren’t even close to the big rainfall winners. The forecasts were all pretty accurate, if we want to take away one silver lining from all those gray clouds, with Accuweather barely edging the competition for victory.
Actuals: Thursday – .19 inches of rain, High 68, Low 55
Friday – .93 inches of rain, High 57, Low 50

Grade: A-B

Greensboro, North Carolina

It’s not very often that we have a forecast that is for what may end up being the most interesting part of the country within the forecast period. Joaquin is on his way.

At 1054PM, ET, Greensboro was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with overcast skies and a brisk northeast wind. This is associated with the inflow towards a thunderstorm complex centered over Albemarle, and associated with a rapidly stalling cold front. There is a surface trough developing off the coast, and circulation around it will cycle in some slightly drier air to the Greensboro area tonight, but that is likely to change dramatically.
As Joaquin finally begins to lift to the northwest, the offshore trough will be adopted by the tropical storm and begin to retrograde as a feeder band. Rain over eastern North Carolina will flair up and retrograde, dropping several inches on Greensboro from Thursday night through the day Friday. Joaquin will still be well to the southeast, so wind will not increase dramatically, with the hurricane doing most of his damage using the feeder band/trough as a proxy.
Tomorrow – Light showers, becoming heavy late, High 68, Low 54
Friday – Heavy rain, thunderstorms, High 55, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers High 67, Low 55
Friday – Rain, High 55, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Cooler with periods of rain High 68, Low 56
Friday – Breezy and cool with periods of rain, some heavy; watch for flooding High 57, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely. Cloudy High 70, Low 55
Friday – Showers High 59, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Rain, High 68, Low 53
Friday – Rain, Highh 59, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with Light Showers Likely High 68, Low 54
Friday – Cloudy with Showers High 59, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain throughout the day. High 69, Low 56
Friday – Rain throughout the day and breezy starting in the evening.High 55, Low 50

This is very messy forecast, and of all days, THIS was the day Weatherbug came out with a site remodel. Thanks a lot, guys. Here is the radar, inducing those brisk north winds.
Greensboro

Clouds underdone

Usually in the Carolinas, final verifications are closely tied to clouds, and what they do to temperatures. The issue stems from their position at the cross section of an open path from the Gulf, leading to moisture, a position to the east of the Appalachians, which can mean some damming situations and their exposure to the Gulf Stream, which is a constant source of instability. This was the case in Greensboro, where a weak wave over the Appalachians ejected clouds into Greensboro overnight. The critical number was the morning low on Saturday, where there was wild dissent in the forecast lows. Those that trended warmr finished in the top 3 as the final tally clicked in at 68, considerably warmer than the 64’s so many had in the forecast. The Weather Channel ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday – High 87, Low 66
Saturday – High 89, Low 68

Grade: A – C

Greensboro, North Carolina

We’re very heavy on the North Carolina this week. Congratulations, I suppose, to the fine residents of North Carolina who are stopping by.

At 954PM, ET, Greensboro was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with partly cloudy skies. As the weather service described it, a “modest” area of high pressure is parked over the mid Atlantic at the surface. This is in contrast to the upper level pattern, where a mean trough lies along the coast.
The trough isn’t expected to move anywhere for the next several days though it is expected to weaken. The surface reflection of the trough is actually west of the Appalachians, which means that there is some easterly flow moving up the slope in North Carolina, helping to produce the stability in the region that Greensboro has enjoyed, and for the next several days, and will continue to enjoy clear conditions for a few days, though some isolated thunderstorms will pop up over the mountains of the western Carolinas.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 68
Saturday, Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 63
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow -Mostly sunny and pleasant High 87, Low 66
Saturday – Plenty of sunshine HIgh 88, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 86, Low 65
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 89, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – PArtly sunny, High 86, Low 64
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 89, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 86, Low 64
Saturday – Partly Cloudy High 90, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the evening. High 89, Low 65
Saturday – Light rain starting in the evening. High 91, Low 65

The robots at F.IO are looking way too closely at the low-res models. Real people are doing pretty good in Greenboro. Look how empty the satellite is.
Greensboro

Plateau Pleasantness

Overall, the weather pretty much cooperated with what we were expecting it to do in Greensboro. The end of the weekend saw some quiet and warm weather, then Monday saw the clouds roll in and a few light showers move in during the late evening as the cold front finally moved into the Carolina Plateau. The NWS takes home the win with an impressive temperature forecast.

Sunday: High 66, Low 35.
Monday: 0.04″ of rain in late evening rain showers. High 66, Low 41.
Forecast Grade: A

Greensboro, North Carolina

Quick forecast tonight, don’t forget to switch your clocks 1 hour ahead tonight!

At 1254am Sunday, the temperature at Greensboro, NC was 43 degrees under fair skies. High pressure is dominating the East Coast right now, so everywhere from New England to the FL Peninsula should have a pretty enjoyable end to the weekend, Greensboro included. A storm system in the Plains right now will be shifting through the MS River Valley on Sunday and make its way to the Appalachians by midday Monday. Some scattered afternoon rain showers are expected out ahead of this system, but the heavier rains right along the front won’t show up until probably the early morning hours on Tuesday. Most of Monday should be a pretty enjoyable day though, with temperatures in the 60s despite increasing clouds.

Sunday: Few afternoon clouds. High 67, Low 38.
Monday: Increasing clouds, some scattered evening showers. High 63, Low 43.

TWC: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 64, Low 36.
Monday: Cloudy. High 63, Low 45.

AW: Sunday: Partly sunny and nice. High 64, Low 36.
Monday: Clouding up, mild. High 62, Low 43.

NWS: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 35.
Monday: Afternoon showers possible. High 64, Low 42.

WB: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 64, Low 32.
Monday: Partly sunny, late evening showers. High 63, Low 40.

Here we see the large storm system pushing through the central US. This will be the rainmaker late Monday into Tuesday for the Carolina Plateau.

GreensboroSAT