The Appalachians and the heat

Usually, when you think of mountains, you think of snow capped peaks and chilly air. In Greensboro last week, they were directly responsible for temperatures not cooling off as quickly as it could have. cold air was rushing south from the Great Lakes, but got hung up in the mountains. Southerly flow with humid air produced clouds and a bit of rain that certainly allowed for a cooldown, but not quite on the order forecast by our model guidance for Friday. Weatherbug had a blend of a good temperature forecast, and were one of only three that had rain in the forecast on Thursday.
Actuals: Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 95, Low 72
Friday – .01 inches of rain, High 82, Low 72

Grade: A-C

Greensboro, North Carolina

The Carolinas were clipped by Dorian, with coastal sections of the states from Charleston to the Outer Banks sustaining damage, primarly due to storm surge and some isolated tornadoes, like the one in North Myrtle Beach. Greensboro was largely unaffected, and now can look instead to the west for their upcoming weather.

At 1152AM, ET, Greensboro was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with fair skies. There was a little bit of cloud cover across the region, but not so much that the satellite was very busy. A stalled boundary suspended between two areas of low pressure in the Great Lakes was inducing a generally southerly flow, which will likely lead to low clouds and fog when temperatures start to wane.
The western low will start to occlude, while the cold front attached to the boundary to the east will begin to sink further south, decoupling from the western low. There won’t be much energy with the tail of this front as it passes into North Carolina, but after sunset, destabilization aloft might lead to a few showers and storms on Friday evening.
Tomorrow – Sunny and humid, High 92, Low 73
Friday – Mostly cloudy with increasing chances of rain. Cooler, High 83, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. high 95, Low 72
Friday – Scattered thunderstorms High 81, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, hot, High 94, Low 71
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sun, a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later; warm High 83, low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny,  High 94, Low 71
Friday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Increasing clouds, High 86, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 93, Low 73
Friday – Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 83, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 94, low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 86, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 93, Low 70
Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, low 70

Model guidance suggests that temperatures will actually be in the high 70s on Friday, but note how nobody is on board with that. This is because guidance often fails to cope with terrain’s influence on temperature. That heavy, cold air will struggle to clear Appalachia, and with a blanket of mid level clouds, radiative cooling will be unlikely. Here is the satellite, with no clouds to speak of this morning.