We needed to rely heavily on model guidance for our forecast in San Jose, thanks to tricky terrain and a dearth of information to the west. Some of it is still instinct, however, and many people shouldn’t have trusted theirs. On Monday, skies cleared a bit thanks to a brisk northwest wind, and temperatures popped into the 70s, but that was the only real forecast surprise for model adherents. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel collected the top spot, which is interesting, because the robot forecaster actually ended up last. Actuals: Monday – High 71, Low 48 Tuesday – High 69, low 45
Just a quick little trek today, as we head about 3 hours from the Central Valley to the Bay Area. Such a change in geography over only 191 miles. We’re going to cover the ground at a pace of 61.9mph. That’s not very fast, but these short trips aren’t known for their high rates of speed. Nor are California roads.
Fortunately for our quick drive on Monday morning, the pattern, already pretty good, is going to get even better on the West Coast. A ridge is setting up over California, which may lead to a bit of a breeze, but not much else. The big concern will be traffic, but we’ll get to San Jose around lunch time, so hopefully, it won’t be bad!
The Bay Area of northern California is a complicated weather scene thanks to the water, the changing terrain and the fact that there isn’t a heck of a lot of data immediately to the west of there. Fingers crossed, models don’t fail us now!
At 1053AM, PT, San Jose was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The regional satellite showed off the jet stream through northern California, with some striated clouds moving through Nevada and Utah after passing the Sierras. The southern Bay just had a few patches of clouds that don’t look to have much staying power. A surface ridge will build over the west coast over the next few days, further underscoring the stability in the region. The tail of a jet streak will press eastward, allowing a strong Pacific ridge to really put it’s mark on the area. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 68, Low 46 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 45
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 46 Tuesday – Abundant sunshine. High 67, Low 44
AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine High 69, Low 46 Tuesday – Plenty of sunshine High 67, Low 42
NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 69, Low 43 Tuesday – Sunny – High 68, Low 40
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny, High 69, Low 45 Tuesday – Sunny, High 66, Low 43
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 43 Tuesday – High 68, Low 40
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 68, Low 43 Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, Low 41
Here is a look at that satellite I mentioned. Pretty cool how apparent the jet stream is, if you ask me, a local weather nerd.