Tag Archives: San Jose

Warm in the Valley

San Jose was situated post frontally and surrounded by a host of wildfires on Thursday night, which suggested to some of us that the temperature on Friday would be held in check. It was not. Down sloping flow and clear skies allowed temperatures to climb to nearly 80 on Friday, and to reach that point on Saturday. Equally clear skies allowed temperatures to drop all the way to the mid-40s overnight. There were two schools of thought on this forecast, and the one espoused by Accuweather came to fruition. The others, a less dynamic solution brought forth by Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service was profoundly unsuccessful. Accuweather had the easy win.
Actuals: Friday : High 78, Low 45
Saturday – High 80, Low 48

Grade A-D

San Jose, California

Everywhere from the Coastal Ranges and west towards the coast in California is in a dramatic battle with flames engulfing anything in their path. This is a region desperate for moisture and cooler temperatures, as well as a diminishing of winds in the region. Will that relief be coming?

At 1153AM, PT, San Jose was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 71 degrees. It’s low lying valley location allowed it to be one of the few sites in northern California not reporting smoke or obscuration at the hands of the prolific fires across the region. Smoke was visible on satellite imagery north of San Pablo Bay , flowing to the southeast towards San Francisco and the north Pacific. This was in response to a strong upper level trough diving into the area through the Pacific Northwest. While it was going to bring rain and snow to those areas, it is only providing more dangerous blustery conditions to residents of the Napa and Sonoma Valleys.
The trough is on its way out of town, which is excellent news for firefighters. A ridge will build back into the coastal regions of northern California, which will have the effect of steering fire away from the more populous regions closer to the coast, though in San Jose, some slightly warmer temperatures appear to be in the offing, thanks to the emergence of downsloping flow. Unfortunately, with the arrival of the ridge, winds likely won’t fully subside through the forecast period.

Tomorrow – Sunny with haze and breeze. High 71, Low 49
Saturday – Hazy with a bit of an onshore wind High 77, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. Areas of smoke reducing visibility at times High 76, Low 49
Saturday – Mainly sunny. High 81, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny.High 77, Low 47
Saturday – Hazy sunshine, breezy and smoky; extreme fire danger high 80, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 47
Saturday – Sunny,High 75, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 48
Saturday – Sunny,High 80, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, low 47
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 49

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 76, Low 46
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 80, Low 45

The 6z GFS has been in tune with temperature trends today, while other models have gone a bit rogue. Victoria-Weather, the NWS and WeatherNation are the only three to follow along. Below is compelling satellite imagery of northern California, wherein you can see smoke streaming off shore.

Manchester, New Hampshire to San Jose, California

Ooh, this is going to be a long trip. The trip will cover 6 days on the calendar and 3165 miles on the map. Thanks to those transcontinental interstates that we will make use of, we will be able to maintain a speed of 67.3mph, which means the first 5 days will cover 538 miles per day. The final day will be a hair shorter, but by that point, I think we will just happy to be in San Jose.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Well, Gert is still going strong out in the Gulfstream, and indirectly, she will make our first day on the road a good one. High pressure with clear skies is going to move into the region, allowing us an easy drive through Massachusetts and Upstate New York. We’ll make it to the western part of the state and the town of Wesfield along the shores of Lake Erie, and just north of the Pennsylvania border.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
After a good day of driving on Wednesday, we will encounter our first real system, as an upper level low charges in from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. It’s not going to be one of those systems that has a ton of severe weather, especially as we first encounter it around Ashtabula, Ohio, but we might see some heavy rain and thunder nevertheless. The cold front is moving fairly quickly as these early autumn (I know, not yet) features can. We’ll get one last dose of rain around Chicago, and then cover the remainder of northern Illinois and make it all the way to Peru in the central part of the state before we call it a night.

DAY THREE (Friday)
It will be a bit cloudy as the low in the Great Lakes will slow down and churn up the atmosphere in its wake. An inverted trough angled from the Upper Midwest towards Iowa, a state that we will spend a great portion of our Friday. There may be a touch of precipitation between Des Moines and Omaha, but it will be very hit or miss. We’ll likely collect a drop or two, if my road tripping history tells me anything, but not enough to slow us down on the arrow straight I-80. We will make it into Nebraska, past Omaha and Grand Island, all the way to Wood River, where we will stop for the night.

DAY FOUR (Saturday)
Like I said, that weak little low seems to be the only issue we will encounter on our drive this week. A nice fat ridge will be setting up by the weekend over the Rockies and High Plains. Unless there are some microscale wind gusts in the valleys of Central Wyoming. We’ll make it to Red Desert, which is a small spot between Rawlins and Rock Springs.

DAY FIVE (Sunday)
There is rarely anything to chat about when we get from Wyoming to the Great Basin, both because the weather is pretty static, and because there aren’t many benchmarks on the map to reference if there is anything going on. By Sunday, that upper level ridge will be shifting to the east, allowing some monsoonal flow to start spilling back to the north, but any precipitation will be at the very peaks of the tallest mountains of the Wasatch. While we likely won’t see precipitation from these storms, don’t be surprised if there is a little bit of wind rushing down the mountains. We’ll stop in Battle Mountain in northern Nevada, which isn’t really a mountain, but a flat bit of land near a mountain.

DAY SIX (Monday)
More moisture will be spilling into the Great Basin as the ridge continues its departure. It will be late in the day before the wet weather shifts east to encounter the Sierras between Reno and Sacramento, and it seems very likely that we will get through the area before any real wet weather sets itself up. The heat wave has dissipated out west, so expect a comfortable drive through California to the Silicone Valley, finally culminating this enormous road trip.

Trace in San Jose

It was a long, sparse summer along the coast, but the first signs of that breaking and a wetter winter season came as the weekend wore on in the Bay Area. San Jose wasn’t clobbered by rainfall, but they did see a trace of rain on both Saturday and Sunday, and just as importantly, temperatures were much more tolerable, coming in about 30 degrees cooler than they had been as recently as last week. The top forecast belonged to WeatherNationn, who nearly pegged the Saturday forecast, but nobody anticipated the rain coming in that early.
Actuals: Saturday – Trace of rain, High 72, Low 51
Sunday – Trace of rain, High 69, Low 50

Grade: B-C

Rome, Georgia to San Jose, California

Hey, happy weekend. There is a hurricane headed for the southeast, so let’s get out of north Georgia and head for the San Francisco Bay, what do you say? It will be a 4 day trip from the Peach State to the Golden State, covering 2404 miles. We will cover 549 miles on our first three days, with a 10+ hour drive on day 4, all at a pace of 68.7mph. Let’s clear out!

 

DAY ONE (Sunday)
Rome
Right now, things are great in the southeast. There isn’t a cloud in the sky, and off shore perturbations will keep things that way through the weekend. Our long road trip couldn’t ask for a better start, driving through pleasant temperatures and dry roads, from Rome all the way to Pottsville, Arkansas, which is west of Conway.

DAY TWO (Monday)
While high pressure builds in the eastern third of the country, a deep trough will be swinging into the Rockies from the Pacific Northwest. It will lead to cyclogenesis over the High Plains, and warming temperatures in the Southern Plains. It will still be dry as we make our way through Oklahoma, but some isolated thunderstorms, perhaps strong at times, will crop up in the Texas Panhandle. Don’t be surprised by seeing some cumulonimbus until we call it a day in the western Panhandle town of Adrian.

DAY THREE (Tuesday)
We’re going to be behind that developing cold front on Tuesday, as thunderstorms will really blow up overnight as we sleep in Adrian. In the southwest, we will really be outside of much synoptic forcing. We won’t be under high pressure, but we won’t have to worry about showers or storms, either. Temperatures will be a little cool, but we won’t have to worry about any precipitation or anything interrupting our day. We’ll end in Winona, Arizona, outside of Flagstaff.

DAY FOUR (Wedesday)
There will be a ridge emerging over the west coast, as we head into California. There isn’t going to be much wind and there will be no precipitation. If we get going early, we might see some haze in the central Valley, but I think we will arrive in San Jose with good weather as a companion for the entire day. As we cross into Silicone Valleyarea, we may have to contend with some smoke, as there are still some lingering forest fires in the region. San Jose itself, however, should be nice.
SanJose

San Jose, California

We’re back to work in the Forecast Store, and we’re looking to the Bay Area for today’s action. They’ve recently experienced an intense heat wave, surprising for the late season. Will that continue?

At 653AM, PT, San Jose was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with light fog in the area. Flow across San Jose was coming from San Francisco Bay, allowing the Silicone Valley to fill up with haze. Outside of San Jose, the Bay area is covered in a layer of mid layer clouds thanks to a light onshore flow. High pressure is being eroded by a deep trough coming ashore from the Gulf of Alaska
The weekend will start with a refreshing southwesterly flow off the Pacific, but the upper level trough will make an early season incursion into the Pacific Northwest. Rain and storms will be heaviest in northern California, particularly around Mount Shasta and Redding, but light rain working its way through the Bay area can’t be ruled out on Sunday evening.
Tomorrow – Cool with increasing clouds, High 70, Low 49
Sunday – Light rain and mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies, High 72, Low 53
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 67, Low, 53

AW: Tomorrow – Cool with low clouds giving way to sunshine High 72, Low 53
Sunday – Mostly cloudy and cool; a shower in places in the afternoon High 66, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 52
Sunday – A 20 percent chance of showers after 11. Partly sunny. High 66, Low, 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny.. High 71, Low, 53
Sunday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 65, Low, 54

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 52
Sunday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 66, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 76, Low, 47
Sunday – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 67, Low, 48

As you might be able to tell, I wrote the forecast long before I posted it. This is the current satellite imagery. Note the curl in the water vapor image off the coast of British Columbia. That’s driving the west coast weather this week!

san-jose

San Jose, California to Gulfport, Mississippi

We’re embarking on quite a trip today, from one giant body of water to another. This trip from San Jose to Gulfport, MS will cover 2,288 over 4 long days. Hope you have your car games stocked up, we’ll be going through them all!

SanJose

DAY ONE

We leave San Jose early in the morning with perhaps a hint of a marine layer sticking around, but we’ll soon be rid of that as we make our way southward through the Central Valley. Conditions should be pretty pleasant as we continue by my old stomping grounds in the Santa Clarita Valley and eventually bypass Los Angeles to the north. Continued dry weather anticipated as we push by Palm Springs and eventually end our long day in Blythe, CA, right on the CA/AZ border.

DAY TWO

Another long day in store as we continue our trek through the Desert Southwest. Some partly cloudy skies are expected as we head eastward towards Phoenix and dry weather looks to continue as we push towards Tucson. The afternoon hours look to be a little dicey as we continue along I-10 towards southwest NM, as the monsoon season is still in full effect. We could encounter some activity as we traverse the passes around San Simon, AZ and Lordsburg, NM. Some late evening activity will keep us on our toes as we head by Las Cruces and eventually into our stop for the night, El Paso.

DAY THREE

Today we start our “Texas Day”, meaning we’ll drive almost 600 miles and STILL be in Texas when we finish. It’s a gigantic state. There might be some isolated showers lingering in the area when we leave in the morning, but shouldn’t be too bad really. Much of the day will be spent enjoying dry weather and just a few clouds as we fly though western Texas (yay for 80mph speed limits!). It won’t be until we pass by Junction that some scattered activity might pop up, but the majority of activity today should remain to the north/east of our route. A lingering shower is possible around San Antonio, but the trip should remain dry as we pull into Seguin, TX, not far east of San Antonio.

DAY FOUR

Finally! Our last day! It’s still a long one though, over 550 miles covering 3 states. A weak disturbance lingers along the TX/LA border, so a few late-morning showers could be already greeting us as we push through Houston. There’s going to be hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms over much of far eastern Texas/western LA as we pass by Beaumont and Lake Charles, but should be able to dodge any clusters that would pop up as they’d probably be further inland. The big question at this point, isn’t if the weather will slow our trip through LA down to our final destination, but if the interstate will be in good enough shape to get through in a timely manner. The area experienced horrific flooding the last fortnight, and honestly still is, but the worst of it should have passed south of our route and allowed for the crews to clean up the main thoroughfares. If so, we should have a fairly smooth finish to the trip, albeit a tiring one, into Gulfport.

Gulfport

San Jose follows the script

Temperatures in the 90s didn’t really seem like they would jive well with nearby stratus and fog, but that’s what we saw for at least two days around San Jose. Temperatures cooled off a bit on Wednesday from their balmier highs on Tuesday, but there was no rain, and none of the stratus in the Silicone Valley. The robots at FIO seemed like they should have won the forecast in San Jose, but they were far and away the worst. In fact, it was Victoria-Weather that won the day.
Actuals: Tuesday – High  94, Low 61
Wednesday – High 91, Low 64

Grade: A-C

San Jose, California

We’re headed to the Bay Area for our forecast this evening. What do we have to look forward to?

At 453PM, PT, San Jose was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. San Jose just happened to be under a stray patch of clouds, as most of the rest of the South Bay was reporting clear skies. A thick layer of stratus lay just off shore and seemed foreboding for the morning along the coast.
Aloft, there is a weak ridge through the Pacific Northwest, but the chilly Pacific just to the west will be ripe for morning fog along the coast and thick ceilings off shore. San Jose, however, should be balmy and pleasant.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 60
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, a touch cooler, High 91, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 93, Low 59
Wednesday – A mainly sunny sky High 93, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with patchy low clouds and fog early on; otherwise, mostly sunny High 91, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and warm High 89, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 89, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny, High 88, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Patchy smoke in the morning. High 89, Low 61
Wednesday – Sunny, High 89, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Dry throughout the day. High 97, Low 58
Wednesday- Dry throughout the day. High 96, Low 65

You can tell the real people forecasting from the robot here. Model guidance is and has been significantly higher than what’s actually played out lately, so FIO is going way higher than what everyone else is forecasting. Here is the satellite, showing a few clouds south of San Jose. Of course, a few of them got into San Jose for our ob.

San Jose

San Jose Showers

Well, for once this month it seems, the heavy rain stayed away from San Jose and instead remained off to the north. Only a few light showers were felt in SJ on both days, but only very minimal amounts. Clouds kept the lows from getting as low as forecasted, screwing up some of the numbers. Accuweather once again lived up to its name, edging out VW for the win

Wednesday: 0.02″ of rain. High 71, Low 52.
Thursday: Trace of rain. High 68, Low 60.
Forecast Grade: B-D